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  1. Existing risks will morph into bigger risks to your business
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  3. Emerging risks not obvious at the time of the report, could subside and just be accepted or they could gather momentum and threaten business objectives.

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The VIX Bullish Falling Wedge: A Sign of a Stock Market Crash?

12 July 2023

The VIX, or the CBOE Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index. It is often referred to as the “fear index” because it tends to rise when investors are feeling more fearful about the market.

In recent weeks, the VIX has been in a bullish falling wedge pattern. This is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash.

Why does the VIX go down when the market goes up?

The VIX is a measure of expected volatility, which means that it is based on how investors think the market will move in the future. When the market is going up, investors are less likely to expect volatility, which is why the VIX tends to go down.

Should I buy or sell when VIX is low?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Some investors believe that it is a good time to buy when the VIX is low, as this indicates that investors are feeling less fearful about the market. However, others believe that it is better to wait until the VIX has risen to a more moderate level before buying.

What should I look for before a market crash?

There are a number of things that investors can look for before a market crash. These include:

  • A rising VIX
  • A decline in market liquidity
  • A widening of credit spreads
  • A decline in economic growth
  • A rise in political uncertainty

What is the most important predictor of a market crash?

There is no one single factor that can definitively predict a market crash. However, the VIX is often seen as one of the most important predictors. A rising VIX indicates that investors are becoming more fearful about the market, which can be a sign that a crash is on the horizon.

Conclusion

The VIX bullish falling wedge is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash. Investors should carefully monitor the VIX and other market indicators in the coming weeks and months to assess the risk of a crash.

Keywords: VIX, volatility index, fear index, bullish falling wedge, market crash, market bottom, market liquidity, credit spreads, economic growth, political uncertainty

Additional Information

The VIX is a valuable tool for investors who want to stay ahead of the market. By monitoring the VIX, investors can get a sense of how fearful investors are about the market and make informed decisions about when to buy or sell.

However, it is important to remember that the VIX is not a perfect predictor of market crashes. There have been times when the VIX has been high and the market has not crashed, and there have also been times when the VIX has been low and the market has crashed.

As such, investors should not rely on the VIX alone to make investment decisions. They should also consider other factors, such as economic fundamentals and market sentiment, before making any trades.

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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets

By Keith Lewis 20th October 2023

Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.

This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Why are bond yields rising?

There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.

Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.

What are the risks of rising bond yields?

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.

For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.

For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.

What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?

There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.

Investors

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.

Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.

Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.

Businesses

Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.

Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.

Conclusion

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.

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