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18th May 2022 – UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9 percent in the 12 months to March, according to the Office For National Statistics ONS in UK.
Perhaps even more worryingly, this record high inflation level in UK is highly likely to be already higher and set to go higher still as the year wears on. When it was indicated by Bank of England that inflation in UK would be above 10 percent by the end of the year, they didn’t mean inflation would be 10 percent headline figure you first think of!
Latest UK inflation announcement from the ONS covers price changes from April 2021 until April 2022BusinessRiskTV
The Bank of England Governor this week in response to MPs questions, almost happily, said food prices could rise apocalyptically! Some things he couldn’t control with increases in interest rates, like oil and food prices, but if he and Bank of England had set out to stop stimulating the UK economy in 2021 we would be less in the proverbial now on this costs that would have been more under control. The delay in increasing interest rates now means the Bank of England will have to be more aggressive in raising interest rates than was needed to mitigate rising UK inflation. UK interest rate is currently 1 percent and expected to rise again in June to at least 1.25 percent.
One thing in the Bank of England’s defence is that increasing National Insurance costs to workers and businesses in UK in April will contribute to reducing demand for the rest of 2022 and into 2023. This will mitigate inflation rate in UK.
Another, bigger brake, will be another massive energy cost hike in October 2022 as the UK energy price cap will be shuffled upwards. The bump in energy prices in April will not be fully felt by UK consumers as the weather heats up. However, come the UK winter and Spring 2023, UK consumers spending power will be slashed by massive increased cost of energy.
The UK economy has already made a handbrake turn to face its impeding recession. It could have made a slower, less painful, less frightening, shallower, shorter recession if the Bank of England had fulfilled its duty earlier in 2021. As it is, the UK is now facing a horror ride! Destination recession or depression will not hit until 2023.
17th May 2022 – UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1974
Good news! It is good news, but the calm before the impending storm to end of year and into probably all of 2023 if not 2024.
UK unemployment fell to 3.7 percent in the first three months of this yearBusinessRiskTV
Average earnings, excluding bonuses, were 4.2 percent higher than a year earlier in the three months to March. As inflation in the UK is so much higher than wage increases, the average standard of living in the UK is falling.
6th May 2022 – Restructuring firm Begbies Traynor has reported a 19 percent year-on-year increase in British firms in critical financial distress in the first quarter of 2022.
5th May 2022 – The Bank of England has raised UK interest rate from 0 .75 percent to 1 percent today to try to control out of control inflation robbing UK consumers’ spending power.
UK interest rate is now at highest level for 13 years. However they will have to increase much further to control inflation now. The Bank of England should have begun the interest rate increases last year when it was clear that a shortage of skills was going to start to push up UK inflation.
If you delay the pain of higher interest rates, as the Bank of England has done, you have to increase interest rate higher for longer to eradicate the mindset of increasing prices in business and increasing wages to keep up with inflation. That’s how runaway inflation starts and goes out of control. Putting inflation back in its box will now be more painful than it needed to be.
Forecast for UK economic growth this year remains at 3.75 percent. UK economic growth 2023, forecast cut to 1 percent. Cut its growth projection for 2024 to 0.25 percent.Bank Of England
If the BoE projections on economic growth for UK are right, and they often are not, then UK inflation will be well above 2 percent target. Which means everybody, but particularly poor to middle earners, will be suffering a continued fall in their standard of living. The UK, like all other countries fighting inflation, cannot bring inflation under control without suffering a recession. The recession will be longer and deeper if the BoE does not increase interest rate faster or longer. Yes that will induce a recession but the BoE should have realised that last year and begun interest rate increases then. Then we may have benefited from soft landing of economy. Too late now!
UK inflation climbing above 10 percent in October 2022, due to another increase of about 40% in the U.K.’s energy price capBank Of England
We either bite the bullet now or get our heads blown off!
UK households are facing a 1.75 percent drop in real disposable income this year, the second-biggest fall since 1964. That’s even after government support measures to ease the cost of living crisisBank Of England
The Bank of England is considering actively selling bonds it purchased under quantitative easing QE. No major central bank has yet conducted active sales of government bonds. Some have committed to not issuing more sovereign bonds when old bonds mature – printing money -which is not as tight form of Quantitative Tightening QT – the opposite of QE.
Pay growth rising to 5.75 percent in 2022. As UK inflation be around 10 percent, UK living standards will be falling even though UK wages rising.Bank Of England figures
1st May 2022 – According to figures in Big 4 accountant’s EY the UKs biggest companies issued 44 percent more profift warnings for the first 3 months of this year compared to start of of year last year.
Profit warnings can be issued issued for a variety of reasons, but the most common reason at the moment is the rising cost of inflation in UK.
Companies reporting lower profits give less dividends, or stop paying dividends, and this will also impact of the value of the share pushing share prices down. Lower valuations and dividends reduces income of pensioners present and future pensioners. They have less money or confidence to spend.
In addition, UKs biggest companies will be less inclined to invest in the future of their amidst growing uncertainties in their marketplace and the certain knowledge that borrowing to invest in their business is going to be more expensive over next year with rising interest rates in UK.
The UK has entered a negative economic spiral out of control that can only end with a recession. The real question is how long the recession be. Many market watchers say the world is entering the mother of all stock market collapses. It could of been avoided if central banks and national governments had not continued to pump trillions of pounds into their economy’s quicker and more aggressively.
30th April 2022 – According to the latest UK economic outlook report from PwC, British households are set to be £900 worse off this year in a “historic fall” in living standards. The lowest earners face a £1,300 blow to finances. The report found that inflation will hit 8.4% later this year, which will mean a 2% drop in household incomes, marking the biggest fall in real wages since the 1970s and the largest decline in living standards since records began. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and belt-tightening among households and businesses means the economy will grow at a slower-than-expected rate of 3.8% in 2022, down from the 4.5% previously pencilled in and last year’s record 7.4% expansion, the report suggests.
29th April 2022 – 58 percent of British companies plan to raise prices in the coming year due to rising cost pressures, a monthly survey by Lloyds Bank.
Business confidence remains above long
term average but business leaders are
having to pass on their rising costs to
consumers and other businesses buying
their end product or service. UK inflation
is around 4 times healthy inflation target
of 2 percent set by Bank of England. Economists expect the central bank to raise interest rates to 1.0% from 0.75% on May 5, taking borrowing costs to their highest since 2009.
The desire to recruit in UK is ebbing
slightly as costs of recruiting increase due
shortage in marketplace and the ability to
find recruits the need is unfulfilled.
27th April 2022 – UK Retail Sales Dropped Like Stone in April CBI
The slump partly is reflected by a switch away from stuff to buy to stuff to experience like leisure services. It is also an indicator of the effect of the rising cost of living in UK. Increased food and fuel costs mean people have less money to buy stuff or services in UK.
UK wages are not keeping up with prices and so the standard of living in UK is falling. UK inflation is running at 30 year high of 7 percent and forecast by government via OBR to go above 9 percent by end of 2022. Wages are rising around half as fast at 4 percent on average. The Bank of England is expected by markets to increase UK interest rates to 1 percent on 5th May 2022, to try to control inflation. Making more more expensive to borrow normally reduces demand and thereby prices. However, UK interest rates will need to go much higher to control inflation running at 5 times healthy inflation target of 2 percent.
22nd April 2022 – UK Consumer Confidence Close To All Time Record Low
An influential survey of UK consumers (GfK index survey covering April 2022) sentiment on the strength (or lack of it) revealed UK consumers are at or near their least confident in the prospects for UK economy.
UK inflation has hit 30 year high of 7 percent but the Office for Budget Responsibility OBR says UK inflation will rise to at least 9 percent by the end of the year.BusinessRiskTV
A further huge rise in energy costs for consumers is expected after the Price Cap is adjusted (upwards!) in October 2022. Double digit inflation by 2023 is realistic possibility.
In the face of UK inflation being potentially more than 5 times the level the Bank of England considers healthy inflation, it must push up interest rates in May and repeatedly in 2022, even though it will slow economic growth in the UK. The Bank of England has left flushing the economy with cheap money for too long and now an inflation inferno is set to hit poorer and mid income families particularly hard. More of their spending power is hit by rising inflation as a proportion of overall household income. Businesses profit will be reduced throughout 2022 and 2023 as business leaders scrap for less and less consumer and other business spending but with their own rising costs.
14th April 2022 – Five insurers Aviva, Lloyds Banking Group, Ageas, NFU Mutual and LV= General Insurance and a unit of Allianz have joined a programme set up by Britain’s FloodRe to give homeowners extra funds to build up future resilience to floods in UK.
The insurers will offer customers access to reimbursement costs of up to 10,000 pounds over and above the cost of flood repairs and losses.
The extra money can be used for protective measures such as raising electrical sockets and white goods above floor level and replacing flooring with waterproof tiles.
12 April 2022 – It seems bad just now but inflation is going to jump from 6.7 percent now (estimate) to nearly 9 percent by end 2022 according to UK government budget forecasts. Interest rates need to jump massively to bring inflation down so mortgages will jump if you’re not on Fix. Borrowing money will become much more expensive before year end and probably rise into 2023. #BusinessRiskTV #ProRiskManager #UKnews #UKreporter2022 #UKreview #RiskManagement
UK unemployment has fallen to its joint lowest in almost 50 years. The UK jobless rate fell to 3.8 percent in the three months to February from 3.9 percent, which matches the lowest rate in 2019 pre-pandemic. Prior to the 2019 low mark it was 1974 before unemployment rate was so low. However this is probably a low mark as UK economic growth has slowed to standstill. By 2023, at latest UK will be in a recession. Unemployment will rise.
How bad is the UK economy March 2022
23rd March 2022 – UK inflation reached a 30 year high last month increasing to 6.2 percent more than 3 times Bank Of England healthy inflation target of just 2 percent.
The Bank Of England could easily double current interest rate of 0.75 percent to 1.5 percent at least within 12 months to try to control inflation before it destroys value, jobs and leads to an economic depression. 1.5 percent would not even be historically high but the UK has become greedy for cheap money in government and for personal finance.
People working in the investment industry don’t want higher interest rates as it tends to lower corporate share prices, but the low to middle earners need to see and feel inflation under control to maintain quality of lifestyle. Low interest rates tends to see money go from the poor and middle earners to the super rich making them richer but everyone poorer.
More Global Food Shortages and Hyper Global Inflation Of Food and Fuel: In 6 to 12 months there will be massive food shortages leading to famine in 3rd world countries and food inflation in 1st world countries.
15th January 2022 – UK economy recovers to prepandemic levels in November for first time according to Office for National Statistics ONS
November was pre Omicron infection levels in UK but the signs of a post pandemic revival are strong. Business leaders need to prepare for post pandemic risk management to mitigate new threats and seize new business opportunities.
10 December 2021 – UK economy almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels by end of October 2021
Although October economic growth was weaker than many expected, the UK economy has nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and is likely to have done so by end of November, for which official figures are not ready yet.
Slighter weaker economic growth in October than anticipated has given Bank of England increased opportunity to keep interest rate on hold at 0.1 percent until February 2022. This could save the UK government tens of billions of pounds in interest payments on UK government borrowings but will leave high inflation unchecked.
24 November 2021 – British manufacturing factories order books grew at fastest pace since at least April 1977.
The latest Confederation Of British Industry CBI November 2021 survey found that British industrial orders jumped by largest amount on record in November.
23 November 2021 – Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, told House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee he might reduce early forward guidance on central bank policy. The UK central bank could return to stating Bank of England decisions on monetary policy to official pre planned meeting days.
The change of approach follows the most recent débâcle of the Bank of England, clearly leading the markets analysts media business leaders and general public down the path of an interest rate rise in November, only to not increase interest rates on the official meeting day. Bailey said he was not a fan of ‘forward guidance’ used by the Bank of Englands previous governor, Mark Carney, also labelled an “unreliable boyfriend”. He may just keep quiet until official meeting dates and given his failed communication strategy this month that might be better for everyone!
11 November 2021 – UK economy is still on track to recover all economic growth lost during pandemic by end of December.
It took 5 years for the UK economy to recover from the 2008 global financial crisis caused by poor financial sector risks management. It has taken the UK economy less than 2 years to recover from a bigger financial and health crisis. Now we just need to pay for it!
Crucially UK unemployment is comparatively very low and falling, compared to unemployment rate post global financial crisis of 2008. House prices are at an all time high, business confidence is high and the cost of borrowing in UK remains at a record all time low, though set to rise in December 2021 or February 2022 at latest. Paying back the record high level of debt will be easier if borrowing costs from higher interest rates can be minimised through low borrowing rates, high employment and increased government revenue from taxes.
The UK recovery is accelerating. We have only had a month, October, where furlough has not been in existence. In the run in to the end of the calendar year the UK consumer can cement the recovery by spending especially as many have saved thousands of pounds during the pandemic. It is highly likely that the last quarter of 2021 could be a stronger growth period than the previous quarter especially as it contains Christmas spending. UK GDP will be 7 percent for 2021 which is supersonic fast growth by UK recent history where 2 percent would be regarded as ok.
UK GDP could be around 5 percent in 2022 – slower than 2021 but still supersonic fast. We can expect several interest rate increases in 2022 in an attempt by Bank of England to temper UK inflation.
Another Unreliable Boyfriend At Helm Of Bank Of England
Sky News 4 November 2021 Report On Effect Of Bank Of England Decision On Interest Rate For UK
Andrew Bailey Governor of Bank of England presided over an interest rate risk communication strategy on run up to Bank of England announcement that indicated an interest rate increase now in November that did not happen. Previous Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told us that when UK unemployment rate fell to 7 percent interest rate would rise – it didn’t!
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