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V Shaped Economic Recovery In UK By October Still On?

3rd August 2020 UK Manufacturing Fighting Back From Coronavirus

Manufacturing Business News July 2020
Manufacturing Business News July 2020
Coronavirus Business Impact Recovery UK Report
Coronavirus Business Impact Recovery UK Report

Business Activity In The UK Is Bursting Out All Over

Looking at some businesses on the High Street you can see some that are now busier than they ever have been. Restaurant and Cafe owners are striving to get back into business and recover from the coronavirus pandemic in the UK. It is not just the restaurants and food outlets.

Growth in the UK private sector has exploded into life. The Composite Purchasing Managers Index PMI from IHS Market for July notched up a 5 year high way faster than the gloomy economic forecasters were anticipating. Its early days but if the whole private sector can continue to trade at anything like this level of business activity then thousands of jobs can be saved and a V shaped economic recovery by October 2020 is very much on.

The Services sector has exploded into life but the manufacturing sector is chipping in with its fastest UK manufacturing output in July since November 2017. Manufacturing is again growing in the UK.

To sustain the UK recovery and protect jobs the UK consumer needs to demand more and that means spend spend spend the money that has been squirreled away during the first couple of months of the pandemic in the UK.

Go on holiday eat out and buy new stuff to save and create hundreds of thousands of jobs!

UK Work From Home and 4th Industrial Revolution
UK Work From Home and 4th Industrial Revolution

If Business Leaders In UK Want To Prepare For 4th Industrial Revolution They Should Shun UK Prime Minister Encouragement To Get Back To The Office

In the short term this winter is threatened with a second wave of the virus which could kill more than 100000 additional people in UK. Meanwhile the UK Prime Minister wants people to get back into the office from the 1st August. Such a major change in strategy is wrong in short term for the safety of people and the NHS ability to cope this winter with the virus Winter Flu and backlog of normal ailments and diseases.

In the medium to long term the UK Prime Minister may look at the unbalanced investment in the City Of London and think he has to put everybody back into rabbit hutches to save the previously flawed business strategy of several governments going back to Tony Blair.

The way forward is not to go back to the past inefficient polluting and family damaging ways of working. To grasp the opportunity of the 4th Industrial Revolution people must continue to work from home and the UK governments in London Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland need to change policy to support the diversification and dispersion of work to the country the coast and towns across the UK.

UK Coronavirus Risk Management Strategy and Risk Analysis
UK Coronavirus Risk Management Strategy and Risk Analysis

Either By Design Or By Default England Has Ditched The National Lockdown Policy

The economic need to release the country from lockdown has resulted in majority of businesses being opened in recent weeks or coming couple of weeks. The UK as a whole is effectively moving towards this risk management strategy as new infections have continued to fall. It is a sensible political and economic choice.

Many parts of the UK are relatively untouched by the virus in terms of infection but the whole country has been devastated economically by the virus. This could never continue. The decision had to be made as to when to reopen the UK for business and effectively abandon the national lockdown policy.

The inevitable local spikes in infections will be tackled by local lockdowns as Leicester has already experienced. It means that where people take responsibility to control the spread of the virus they are not held back in parts of the country less compliant with good social distancing and cleanliness. This local lockdown policy applies to individual businesses as well as individual villages towns and whole cities.

Effectively this is how we will live now and potentially forever should there be no vaccine! The cautious suggestion that a vaccine will be found within the next 12 months means that lifelong local lockdown is unlikely but local lockdowns will be a feature for many more months at least.

  • 10th July 2020 UK deaths from the coronavirus increased by 48 in last 24 hours. Infections increased by 512.
Fitness Industry England
Indoor gyms swimming pools and indoor sports facilities to open in England from 25th July 2020

Indoor gyms swimming pools and indoor sports facilities to open in England from 25th July 2020

Outdoor pools and water parks can reopen from 11th July. Musician live performances performed outside and theatre outdoor performances practicing social distancing audiences can restart from the 11th July in England.

Beauticians tattooists and tanning salons can reopen in England from the 13th July.

  • UK deaths from coronavirus increased by 85 over 24 hours to total of 44602
  • New infections increased by 642 to total of 287621 total infections
Deepest Global Recession Ever From Coronavirus Pandemic
Deepest Global Recession Ever From Coronavirus Pandemic

UK government plans to invest another 30 billion pounds into the UK economy to try to recover from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic

The International Monetary Fund IMF is forecasting the worst ever global recession due to the pandemic. In the UK the UK economy shrank 25 percent in two month period.

The UK new government Plan For Jobs includes new 1000 pound job retention bonus for employers in UK if they keep on furloughed workers until at least January 2021. To qualify workers must be paid 520 per month. This could cost the UK taxpayer up to 9 billion pounds.

There will be a new Kick Start Job Scheme for young people aged between 16 and 24. UK employers will receive up to six and a half thousand pound grant from the government if the employ young people starting in the Autumn. UK employers can employ as many Kick Starters as they want and be eligible for the grant for each new young worker started. UK government providing additional apprenticeship funding of 2000 pounds per apprentice started too.

UK government investing 2 billion pounds in Green Homes Scheme which is also hoped to create jobs. The money will be used to improve homes insulation. A grant can also be obtained to improve energy efficiency of public buildings.

UK construction sector support for house building and plan to boost housing market and associated homes and garden products and services suppliers with increase in stamp duty threshold to half a million pounds. 9 out 10 homes bought now will be bought free of stamp duty. The change will run until March 2021.

Hospitality sector supported with cut in VAT from 20 percent to 5 percent for 6 months. This applies to food accommodation and leisure attraction related businesses.

During August 2020 people can use the new Eat Out To Help Out scheme that will knock 50 percent off meals out throughout all of August. Businesses will need to register to benefit from the scheme. When a restaurant has registered it can offer half price meals every Monday Tuesday and Wednesday during August.

The government meal deal scheme provides the other 50 percent up to a maximum of 10 pounds per head where the restaurant participates in the scheme anywhere in the UK. The scheme is only for businesses who provide sit down meals and does not cover alcoholic drinks. The website to register your business in the scheme will be opened soon.

Shares in restaurant companies jumped as a result of the new scheme announcement.

Coronavirus UK Reports July 2020
4 Out Of 5 People Who Test Positive For Coronavirus Have No Virus Symptoms At Time Of Positive Virus Test

78 percent not reporting symptoms on the day of the coronavirus test includes pre symptomatic people as well as asymptomatic those who will never develop noticeable symptoms from the Office of National Statistics ONS survey and analysis BusinessRiskTV.

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