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23rd May 2018 – UK Public Finances More Healthy Than Forecast
The UK started the new financial year in April with a lower than forecast budget deficit.
According to the UK Office for National Statistics ONS the budget deficit this financial year is more than a billion pounds less than April last year.
UK budget deficit for 2017-18 is 2 percent of gross domestic product GDP which is the smallest budget deficit as a share of GDP since 2001-02
24th April 2018 – UK Government Borrowing 11 Year Low
UK borrowing fallen to lowest annual level in 11 years. Office for National Statistics ONS reports borrowing of nearly 43 billion pounds. Last financial year borrowing was below forecast of 45 billion pounds.
18th April 2018 – UK Inflation Falls To Lowest In 12 Months
UK consumer inflation fell to 2.5 percent in March according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
UK average wages are now rising at a rate above inflation 2.8 percent. This means UK living standards are rising on average. Wages are rising faster than products and services in UK.
Lower UK inflation figures reduced pressure to increase interest rate. However the Bank of England should proceed with rate rise. Inflationary pressures have reduced but they will return soon. Interest rate rises take at least 6 months to reduce inflation.
Inflation in UK needs to be controlled. In addition UK needs to prepare for next financial crisis. Raising interest rates will prepare UK for next financial crisis.
Global economy is expanding even faster than forecast at start of year.
UK unemployment rate falls to new low of 4.2 percent in three month to February according to Office for National Statistics ONS. This is the lowest UK unemployment rate since 1975.
UK employment rate rose to 75.4 percent the highest since records began in 1971.
10th April 2018 – Short Term Inflationary Pressures Easing In UK But Interest Rates Must Rise Faster
Unemployment in UK is at lowest rate since 1975. This means UK economic growth is stable at worst.
Growing skills gap in UK increases wage inflation risks. UK employers will have to pay more to retain and attract new staff
Wages are rising faster in UK. Bigger UK wage increases will lead to more money flooding into UK economy. UK business revenues will rise in first quarter of UK financial year.
UK house prices still increasing at around 2 percent. Slower house price growth in recent years but still positive not negative.
Increasing UK interest rates in May 2018 will provide additional headroom. If UK economy deteriorates Bank of England BoE than have better tool to tackle worsening economic conditions.
In addition, inflationary pressures will return in middle of calendar year. BoE needs to act now to alleviate price rise pressures later in 2018.
4th April 2018 – UK Shop Prices Fall At Fastest Rate In Over Year
According to the British Retail Consortium BRC survey british shop prices fell in March.
Latest UK inflation rate is currently measured at 2.7 percent, down from a recent high of 3.1 percent.
21st March 2018 – Number of People In Work In UK At Highest Since Records Began In 1971
The number of people in work in UK has reached a record high. A record high 75.3 percent of population in UK in work now according to Office for National Statistics ONS.
Unemployment in UK is 127,000 lower than a year ago
There is a record low number of people unemployed men in the 25 to 34 age range.
Average earnings in UK increased by 2.8 percent in the year to January which is the fastest rate of increase in wages since September 2015.
High employment levels is one reason for there being so many job vacancies in the UK. Once again the number of job vacancies has increased. There are now 816,000 job vacancies in the UK.
70.9 percent of women aged 16 to 64 are in work – the highest female employment rate since records began in 1971.
6th March 2018 – UK Services Sector Performed Well In February
UK Services Sector economic output was at a 4-month high in February according to IHS/CIPS UK Services purchasing managers’ index.
The UK Services Sector produces 80 percent of Britain’s economic growth.
Many economists are forecasting economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 at 0.4 percent which is low if equated to annual growth, but traditionally first quarter growth is slow compared to the rest of the year. Severe weather in UK in February / March may impact on actual economic growth in UK, but global economic growth is accelerating, which the UK’s manufacturing sector should continue to take advantage of.
4th March 018 – British Businesses Growing At Fastest Rate
According to the latest Confederation of British Industry CBI survey, UK businesses grew at fastest pace since December 2015 in the 3 months to February 2018.
Manufacturing, retail and services sector all picked up even with some high profile business collapses. Not all business leaders are leading successfully. Carillion and Toys R Us are just two examples of recent failures.
26th February 2018 – UK Services Sector Substantial Revenue Growth
UK service businesses revenues in the 3 months to February grew at fastest pace since August 2015 according to Confederation Of British Industry CBI. Profits rose too.
26th February 2018 – Deputy Governor Of Bank Of England BoE More Inclined To Raise UK Interest Rates Sooner
The market experts are expecting an interest rate rise in May to 0.75 percent but the Deputy Governor of BoE could see situation when a rate rise needs to happen sooner than May.
He was speaking in an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper. Previously he was one of a couple of doubters who unbelievably were against the last interest rate rise in November 2017.
He was quoted in Sunday Times as saying that “I can see the case for rates rising somewhat sooner than somewhat later”.
Essentially is UK wages rise faster and economic growth is faster then UK interest rates will rise before May 2018. What we know for definite is that UK interest rates will rise by the end of May 2018.
13th February 018 – UK Inflation Stays At 3 Percent
According to the Office for National Statistics ONS British inflation remained at 3 percent in January, close to a 6-year high of 3.1 percent in November.
3 percent inflation is 50 percent higher than the BoE’s 2 percent target level and is continuing indicator that faster interest rate rises are coming earlier than the BoE previously briefed.
13th February 2018 – UK Rising Wages Means UK Consumers Will Cope With UK Interest Rate Rises In 2018
According to a Banks of England’s BoE Monetary Policy Committee MPC member, UK consumers will be able to cope with rising UK interest rates as their wages will be rising too.
Dr Gertjan Vlieghe, MPC member, feels that rising wages and increased household debt means that UK interest rates need to rise, but the wage rises will mean that this change of policy is manageable for most UK consumers. He feels, speaking at Resolution Foundation event in London, that there is plenty of evidence that UK wages are rising faster in 2018 compared to recent years wage growth levels.
8th February 2018 – Governor Of Bank Of England BoE Says UK Economy Is Growing Faster Than Previously Forecast
Mark Carney, the Mr “unreliable boyfriend”, told us that the UK is growing so fast in 2018 that it could overheat if interest rates do not increase to dampen inflation.
The global economy is growing at its fastest pace since 2011:
- USA – an already expanding economy will be turbo-charged by corporate tax being reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent. A skills shortage will boost wages and further increase business growth.
- China – domestic demand and exports increasing due to global economy recovery and more and more people being taken out of poverty.
- Eurozone – growing at its fastest pace in a decade.
- Japan – still struggling with deflation risk but recovering
UK employment record high, unemployment record low means a growing skills gap will push up wages faster than previously expected.
UK inflation is 50 percent higher than the BoE should have it at as per it’s own target. Mr Carney, the UK doesn’t need low interest rates. It needs to normalise interest rate at a much higher rate than it is now 0.5 percent (long-term average in UK is ten times higher than this).
The pound can take, and arguably needs, an interest rate rise to bolster it.
The UK economy grew 1.8 percent in 2017 and 1.9 percent in 2016. According to some experts the UK economy is set to grow 2 percent in 2018. Inflation will be pushed higher by rising UK wages and the BoE needs to act now to restrict inflation in 6 months to a year’s time.
Rising UK interest rate from historical lows is the sign of a recovering economy not a bad news story. The most “unreliable boyfriend” needs to do his job of controlling inflation instead of playing political games.
7th February 2018 -UK Economy Forecast To Grow Faster In 2018 Than 2016 or 2017
The National Institute Of Economic and Social Research NIESR is now forecasting the UK economy will grow 2 percent in 2018 which, if correct, will be faster than either of the last two years.
31st January 2018 – UK Consumers and Business Leaders Confidence Rises
GfK’S measurement of UK consumer confidence discovers that the UK consumer is more confident in UK economy at start of 2018 compared to end of 2017. Record high UK employment levels and rising wages may be helping to boost UK consumer confidence.
Lloyds Bank surveyed 1200 business leaders and found confidence has risen to 9-month high driven by UK business leader confidence in UK and global economy.
30th January 2018 – UK Consumer Confidence Jumps At Start Of 2018
The confidence of British consumers rose at fastest rate in a year in January, according to a poll of 4,500 people by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research CEBR. This is a highly significant poll size.
Britain grew more quickly in 2017 than most UK economists predicted at the time of the referendum in June 2016 but theirs was more about opinion than fact.
26th January 2018 – Doom-mongers Proven Wrong Again About UK Economy
According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the UK economy grew 0.5 percent in the last 3 months of the 2017 calendar year. The UK generally grows faster at the back end of the year, and 2017 was no different. May economists looked at the low growth level at the start of 2017 and extrapolated that the economic hit, post-Brexit vote, was now feeding into the UK economy. Once again the majority of the UK economists got it wrong the UK growth accelerated in the second half of 2017 and got faster in the last three months of 2017.
Annual UK growth is likely to be slower than 2016, but the UK economists have been predicting a recession for the UK immediately after the post-Brexit vote in June 2016 and it still hasn’t happened. In fact the UK was growing at one of the fastest rates of all the developed nations in 2016 (1.9 percent).
The UK has fallen down the growth rate table of developed countries in 2017, but considering the political fighting between within the UK and between the UK and EU27, the UK’s growth rate for 2017 (1.8 percent) is exceptionally good.
2018, may economists predict, will be slower than 2017. Once again we predict this will be a marginal slowing of the economy, if at all, due to the exceptional political uncertainty and infighting the UK will experience in 2018. However it will continue to grow at a similar rate, or could even accelerate slightly due to global growth picking up, especially in USA.
The UK Services sector is responsible for 80 percent of the UK economic performance. It grew 0.6 percent in the last 3 months of 2017, much faster than many forecast, as the doom-mongers pointed to a slowdown of the UK services sector as a signal that the UK economy was in trouble. It’s not.
UK manufacturing actually grew 1.3 percent in the last 3 months of 2017 due in a large part to the fall in the value of the pound. Many high profile leaders like, Tony Blair, ex-UK Prime Minister point to the low value of the pound as a problem post-Brexit vote. Its actually part of the solution for the UK economy. The Chinese manipulate their currency to get a low value on the Yuan and the Americans would love it if the dollar dropped in value. Instead the USA dollar is set to rise as three interest rate rises in America push the value of the dollar up in 2018. This will further help the UK to sell more in USA in 2018 cause the UK pound will still struggle during 2018.
Now is the time for UK manufacturers to seize the day and maximise income generation overseas, not post-Brexit negotiations at end of 2018 beginning 2019.
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24th January 2018 – UK Government Borrowing In December At Lowest For 17 Years
The Office for National Statistics ONS reported UK government borrowing in December fell to £2.6 billion, the lowest December government borrowing for 17 years.
The UK government is set to meet its public borrowing for the financial year of £49.9 billion for the year to the end of March 2018.
However, UK borrowing is still getting higher and currently well in excess of £1.5 trillion.
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