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New economic data for UK economy is out for the period April to end of June 2021 in comparison to pre-pandemic times
The UK consumer has opened up their spending to give a major boost to the UK economy and pandemic recovery in the UK. Compared to pre-pandemic times:
- The British Retail Consortium BRC says retail sales were 10.4 percent higher.
- Barclaycard says UK consumer spending was 11.1 percent higher.
Understand UK economic recovery from COVID pandemic crisis. Update your knowledge of COVID-19 effects on UK economy. Economic impact of COVID-19 UK is gradually subsiding. UK economy forecast for next 12 months and beyond is for exceptional economic growth in the UK.
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Latest analysis from IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index PMI show that after record UK growth across the private sector in May 2021, June UK growth as a whole is almost as strong as the record high in May. The UK construction industry is growing at its fastest rate since June 1997 and above most economic forecasts.
Office for National Statistics ONS can help show that the UK economy is recovering even through a period of severe restrictions. The ONS said retail spending helped drive the recovery. Although the UK economy contracted in January 2021 it expanded in February and accelerated in March.
“UK first-quarter GDP as a whole was 8.7% below levels seen before the pandemic struck, but the gap is closing as in month of March it fell to 5.9% below the pre-Covid monthly level.”BusinessRiskTV
UK construction industry grew strongly over the first quarter as a whole and by the end of March the construction industry recovered what was lost during the pandemic. In March 2021 the construction sector grew 5.8 percent.
If vaccines continue to work well and the UK economy continues to recover, the Bank of England expects it to grow 7.25 percent in 2021, the fastest since Second World War.
UK goods exported to the European Union EU rose 8.6 percent in March from February. Imports from EU to UK increased 4.5 percent in March month on month.
Bank of England policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on 12th May 2021 that he was not too concerned about the medium-term inflation outlook in Britain. This comes after the Bank Of England officially advised that UK consumer price inflation would rise above 2.5 percent by end of 2021 – still a relatively benign level of inflation especially as for years the Bank Of England put up with inflation at around 0.5 percent below its own target of 2 percent. UK inflation is currently 0.7 percent. The Bank Of England thinks UK inflation will be at its 2 percent target in 2022. This is during a time when the Bank Of England thinks UK economic growth will be an electric 7.25 percent in 2021 and around 5 percent in 2022!
UK Chancellor of Exchequer reviewed the performance of the UK and give Office For Budget Responsibility OBR forecasts for the future. The UK economy has performed better during pandemic than originally thought. The UK economy will recover from the economic impact of the pandemic by middle of 2022.
- Unemployment has not risen as fast as expected and will peak at 6.5 percent in 2021. This may be helped by extending Furlough until until end of September. Many of the other economic support measures will also be extended until end of September 2021. People Furloughed will continue to get 80 percent of their salary. Employers will contribute to costs of Furlough – 10 percent July, 20 percent August and 20 percent in September.
- Self employed will be eligible to new grants of 80 percent of average profit. Newly self employed who have submitted tax returns will also be eligible grants.
- Universal Credit £20 per week uplift will continue to end of September. The National Living Wage will be increased to £8.91 in April.
- Significant support given to housing market with continuation of Stamp Duty cuts and government-backed 95% mortgages.
- A new UK Infrastructure Bank will be setup in Leeds.
- Businesses that invest in their business can recover 130% of the investment.
- Business managers can access support and Help To Grow training cost cover.
- 8 Free Ports will be set up around England and probably more to follow in devolved countries Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Over £400 billion pounds will have been invested in the UK economy to manage the economic impact of the pandemic over 2020 and 2021.
The UK had its worst economic performance in 2020. It managed to avoid a double dip recession as the UK economy grew slightly in December.
A lot of consumer money and business finance has been stockpiled in the UK. When the UK economy opens up again in the spring of 2021 it is set for an enormous jump in business activity and consumer spending. Businesses who are prepared for this surge in economic expansion will reap the rewards.
If the answer to when will we get out out of this pandemic is vaccinations – then given the UK has already vaccinated 15 percent of its adult population, then the UK is well on its way to recovery from the pandemic.
In a UK economy that is expected to grow by 5 percent by the Bank Of England it is highly unlikely that the Bank Of England Monetary Policy Committee is going to go negative on UK interest rates in 2021 or 2022.
Barring a serious issue with Covid19 variants, there is only one way UK interest rates are going to go from a record low of 0.1 percent and thats upwards as UK business and economy growth accelerates towards the end of 2021 into 2022.
Sure the Bank Of England wants people to prepare for negative interests just as the UK needs to prepare for COVID19 variants. However that does not mean the Bank Of England will turn to negative interest rates.
What this mean for business leaders in the UK and those business leaders wishing to trade in the UK, is that they must prepare urgently to respond very quickly to massive growth in business opportunities in 2021 and 2022.
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