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29th May 2020 Flexible Furloughing Now To Start From 1st July

Furloughed workers can be brought back part time from 1st July. If your employer ask you to work 2 days a week for example you will be paid normal wage for 2 days and continue on furlough pay scale for rest of week.

  • June and July no change to furlough scheme where government will pay up to 80 percent of wage up to £2500 per month.
  • August will be final month of being furloughed on up to 80 percent wage up to £2500. In August however employers will be asked to pay employees National Insurance contribution and pension contribution.
  • In September this will reduce to up to 70 percent up to max £2190.
  • In October this will reduce to up to 60 percent up to £1875.

The furlough scheme will end at end of October.

The Self Employment Income Support Scheme SEISS will be extended. Those affected can make second a final claim in August and grant will be capped at £6570. Up 70 percent of 3 month average monthly trading profit can be claimed.

  • 324 people died in last 24 hours taking total to 38161
  • 131458 tests recorded in last 24 hours. 2095 new infections identified in last 24 hours taking total to 271222.
  • Job Retention Scheme has so far cost £80 billion.

28th May 2020 Only around 7 percent of people in the UK have had the virus since the epidemic started. This is actually a bad number as we have had as much as 50000 deaths from the virus by some estimations yet only 7 percent of people have actually caught the virus. 93 percent of UK population could still get infected and it is not known how long you are protected from reinfection once you produced antibodies that protect you. In other words there is wide scope for massive second wave of infection and lockdown measure reintroduction.

From Monday up to 6 people can meetup outside including private gardens but still 2 metres apart. Avoid meeting too many people from different families within this new rule to meetup.

Dentists in England can reopen from 8th June.

English Premier League Football to restart from 17th June.

English schools to reopen to more age groups from 15th June.

  • 1887 new cases of infection in last 24 hours taking total to 269127.
  • 377 people died in last 24 hours taking total to 37837
  • R value is between 0.7 and 0.9.
  • Estimated that there are around 133000 people have Covid19 infection.
  • Around 54000 new infections occur every week in the UK.

27th May 2020 New Test and Trace System Will Become Operational From Tomorrow in England

It will eventually replace national lockdown measures to focus on hotspots and tracing contacts of infected people. Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales have separate systems. We are entering a phase where localised lockdowns where virus flareups occur becomes the norm.

Contact tracers will contact people from tomorrow. If contacted you must self isolate immediately for 14 days and get a test. This regime includes under 5s who can now get a test. 84 percent of all tests returned within 24 hours. 95 percent of tests returned within 48 hours.

  • Ask for a test online or call 119. If the test comes back negative everyone in your household can go back to normal.

25000 contact tracers have been employed to deliver new Test and Trace system. If you are a contact of someone who has tested positive then you must self isolate at home when advised by Contact Tracer.

  • 2013 new cases in last 24 hours. 267240 people have officially tested positive for the virus. Numbers of new cases continue to trend downwards.
  • 117013 tests delivered in last 24 hours.
  • 412 new deaths recorded in last 24 hours taking total to 37460. Numbers of daily deaths trending downwards.

26th May 2020 UK Starting New Coronavirus Recovery Trial With NHS Patients That May Shorten Time To Recover From Covid19

UK government has signed new contracts with two UK manufacturers to supply 2 billion pieces of personal protective equipment PPE. There are new PPE contracts to supply PPE from overseas too.

  • 37048 have now died in UK which is an increase of 134 in last 24 hours. The low figure maybe due to weekend effect on recording of deaths officially. 134 deaths is the lowest number deaths across UK for 6 weeks.
  • There have been no new deaths in Northern Ireland in last 24 hours which is the first time no deaths since March.
  • 109970 tests for virus recorded in last 24 hours. UK government aiming for 200000 per day by end of May.
  • In the last 24 hours there have been 2004 official new cases though this is likely to be an underestimation of new cases across the UK.

25th May 2020 UK Government To Open Outdoor Markets and Car Dealerships On 1st June

From 15th June non essential shops will reopen if they are Covid19 secure including incorporating social distancing rules UK government guide.

24th May 2020 English Schools Will Extend Phased Opening On 1st June From Just Key Workers Children

Schools will follow new safe working practices to protect against spread of virus. If there are suspected infections both teachers and children will have access to tests. If the test is negative children and teachers will return to school. If positive test action will be taken to protect pupils teachers and community.

UK Prime Minister hinted that some non essential shopping will resume in England together with increased socialising opportunities from 1st June too.

  • 118 deaths were recorded in last 24 hours taking total to 36793 across all areas of the UK.
  • 110401 tests recorded in last 24 hours. 2409 new infections have been identified taking total to 259559 in UK.

22nd May 2020 14 Day Quarantine Rules For People Coming Into The UK Will Start On 8th June

The rules will be reviewed every 3 weeks but for now mean that people entering the UK must give contact locator information. UK Border Force will undertake spot checks on people in their self isolation address and breaches of the rules will lead to foreigner being ejected and UK citizens will be fined 1000 pounds. The self isolation rules are designed to try to stop second wave of infections imported from abroad after domestic transmission is brought more under control.

Currently around 61000 people catch the virus every week in the UK. Around 2 out of every 1000 people in UK have the virus or approx 137000. Most have minor or no symptoms around 80 percent. The R rate in UK is below 1 in all areas which means the epidemic in UK is currently declining.

Exempted from quarantine rules are medical professionals road haulage workers and people from Ireland.

  • 351 people died in UK in last 24 hours bringing the total to 36393. Daily death rate is falling.
  • 3287 new cases were detected in last 24 hours. The number of daily tests is rising and the number of new cases is falling.

19th May 2020 UK Government Appeals To Furloughed Workers To Turn To Pick For Britain Website To Find A Second Job Picking Fruit and Vegetables This Summer To Feed The Nation and Stop Food Wasting Unpicked In Fields Due To A Lack Of Workers

Furloughed workers can continue to take payment from existing employer and add to this with supplementary income from picking fruit and veg.

  • 2412 new infections detected in last 24 hours. It has been clear for sometime now that the lack of testing capacity in the UK at the early and medium stage of the pandemic in UK has resulted in more deaths and wider spread of virus than other countries like South Korea and Germany.
  • Officially 545 people died from virus in UK in last 24 hours taking the official total to 35341 deaths. However other measurements suggest that real deaths are much higher.
  • 10025 people are in UK hospitals with the virus.

18th May 2020 Everyone Over The Age Of 5 In The UK Who Thinks They Have The Coronavirus Can Now Be Tested By Going Online To Book A Test

100678 tests were conducted in last 24 hours. 2684 new infections officially detected in last 24 hours.

Loss of taste and smell is now added to key indicator of virus in addition to high temperature and new persistent cough being the most prominent alert warnings to contraction of virus.

Without a vaccine the UK will have to live with this virus for many more months perhaps years.

Medical experts advising UK government are confident that children returning to school in England will not push R rate above 1 and children teachers and wider community will be relatively safe. Risk of infection can only be eliminated from perpetual stay at home policy that in itself endangers the short and long term health prospects of children in the UK.

  • 9408 people currently in hospital with virus.
  • 160 new deaths recorded in last 24 hours rising to a total of 34796 deaths across all settings in the UK. Maybe a low daily figure due to delay in virus reporting over the weekend.

14th May 2020 Antibody Tests Have Passed Public Health England Checks And May Go Into Manufacture and Distribution Soon

There are a couple of antibody tests that have passed checks one from Roche manufacturing. The Roche antibody test now has a CE mark to say the test is safe and accurate. The new tests may go into manufacture and distribution soon. However there are still outstanding questions.

In most cases you do get antibodies after catching the virus but it could take up to 14 days after infection before the antibodies are produced that will protect you from reinfection. If you have antibodies you may be immune from catching virus again but for how long is not known yet.

  • UK deaths from coronavirus rise by 428 to 33614. Number of daily deaths across all settings continues to fall.
  • 11041 people are in hospitals across the UK which continues to fall.
  • A new 24 hour for tests has been hit with 126064 tests in last 24 hours.
  • 3446 new infections were detected in last 24 hours. A total of 233151 have been infected so far.
  • At any one time around 3 in every 1000 has the virus across the UK. It is estimated that around 148000 people in the UK currently have the virus.
  • There are 11041 people in hospital in the UK with the virus which continues to fall roughly by 14 percent week on week.
  • 20 percent of critical care beds are occupied by Covid19 patients.
  • There are 116 mobile test centres which can be sent to care homes to test everyone in the home including carers and residents.

13th May 2020 From Today Anyone In England Can Move House

Estate agents can open their offices from today. Home viewings can restart though the preference is to continue with virtual home viewings. Removal companies can restart their business.

Lettings can also restart including viewing property to let.

Person in current property should vacate property whilst property is viewed. All internal doors should be open to reduce risk from contamination from door handles. All surfaces touched should be cleaned after viewing property.

House building construction sites can apply to councils to extend their normal working hours and councils have been advised by central government to allow such applications.

Planning departments at councils should adopt virtual meetings to discuss and approve planning applications.

Garden centres can open from today. One to one sports can restart including golf tennis and fishing.

  • 87063 tests for virus recorded in last 24 hours. This is short of the 100000 per day targeted for end of April.
  • 3242 new infections recorded in last 24 hours. In total 229705 have tested positive for the virus in the UK.
  • 11327 are in hospital with virus down 13 percent on last week.
  • Just 21 percent of critical care beds are currently occupied with Covid19 patients in UK.
  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 494 Across Al Settings In Last 24 Hours To 33186.

12th May 2020 UK government publishes further guidance on reopening workplaces public transport and schools

People must work from home if it is possible to do so 44 percent of workers are currently able to work from home and are doing so.

All businesses should undertake a coronavirus risk assessment to identify issues and introduce reasonably practicable measures to protect workers and all other persons affected by work activities. Risk controls must be introduced before people return to work. Issues could include the people potentially impacted including age underlying conditions and ethnicity.

UK businesses and employees must work together to find reasonable safe working practices in the light of government best working practices if businesses are to survive and jobs are to be retained. Essentially measures surround keeping 2 metres apart plus cleaning hands equipment and surfaces. Employees should work with their health and safety representatives to improve their safety in the workplace in conjunction with their employers.

Both employers and employees should engage with Health and Safety Executive HSE or their local authority environmental health and safety enforcement officers to understand safety obligations and to report unsafe working environments. The HSE and local enforcement officers can impose prohibition and safety improvement notices as well as fines for unsafe workplaces.

  • The Health and Safety Executive HSE is being given 10 percent extra funding to help provide safe working environment across the UK.
  • UK furlough scheme extended by four months to end of October. The UK government will continue paying 80 percent of wages of furloughed staff up to £2500 per month. The furlough scheme costs the UK taxpayer around 8 billion pounds per month.
  • From end of July workers can return part time and receive 80 percent of salary. Between August and end of October government and employers will share cost of salary in a tapered fashion.
  • UK residents advised they should not expect to go on international holiday this year.
  • Schools being advised to limit class sizes to 15 when they do return and stagger break times. Face masks are not being recommended.
  • Suggestions from the Office of National Statistics ONS that deaths from virus in UK is closer to 50000 rather than official Covid19 figures around 32000.
  • UK deaths recorded from coronavirus rose by 627 in last 24 hours to 32692. The number of infections in UK increased by 3403 to 226463.
  • Deaths in hospitals and care homes are reducing.
  • The number of people in critical care beds is falling.
  • There are 11605 people in hospital with the virus.
  • The number of new infections are falling.
  • As the Reproduction Rate R remains below 1 the number of infections in society not identified is falling.
  • Nearly 86000 tests have been carried out in last 24 hours short of the 100000 per day target.

11th May 2020 Buy Petrol In UK For Less Than Pound Per Litre

Morrisons has reduced its petrol prices to a maximum of 99.7p per litre. Morrisons say all their petrol forecourts nationally are selling petrol at less than a pound. They are selling diesel at no more than 104.7p per litre.

From Wednesday you will be able to leave home for more than one food shopping trip and one leisure trip. In addition everyone who can not work from home should return to work when safe to do so. May will wish or need to use cars to get to work. Make sure you find a petrol supplier who sells petrol at less than a pound a litre.

  • Most lockdown measures in Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland remain unchanged. England lockdown measures have been changed and relaxed.
  • All people in England should return to work from Wednesday if their workplace is open and Covid19 safe.
  • Public transport should be avoided where possible. Max capacity on public transport will only be 10 percent due to social distancing rules.
  • People in UK should wear face covering if in a confined space. Not a legal requirement but recommended to stop you passing on virus not to stop you getting virus.
  • Can now meet up with one person from another household outdoors in public place if maintain social distance of min 2 metres apart.
  • Extremely vulnerable should still remain at home and shield themselves.
  • Starbucks to reopen around 150 UK sites from Thursday.
  • English golf clubs will be allowed to open from Wednesday.
  • Lockdown breach fines in England will increase to £100 from £60 from Wednesday. Fines will double each repeat offence up to a maximum of £3600. 9000 people in England have been fined at the lower rate of £60 across England. However from Wednesday people in England will be allowed to leave home more than the current one food shopping trip and one fitness trip per day.
  • English jury trials will start again from next week.
  • After June the 1st sporting and cultural events are planned to resume. This may mean that they all take place behind closed doors and broadcast live around the world. This includes football horse racing and music events.
  • 1st June small weddings to become permissible.
  • Non essential retail outlets to be allowed to reopen from 1st June.
  • Children nurseries and schools to be eased open in phased way from 1st June. May have reduced class sizes and new rules on PPE.
  • 1st July plan to open all other businesses including pubs hotels hairdressers etc.
  • The number of people in hospital continues to fall and is now 11401. Deaths are trending downwards although 32065 have already died. In the last 24 hours another 210 people died across all settings.
  • After 18 years no one in the world has developed a vaccine for another virus called SARS. Although everyone is hopeful of developing a vaccine there is no guarantee that we can produce an effective safe vaccine for Covid19.
  • At moment the best estimate is that only 4 percent of people in the UK have had the virus. This is a shockingly low and bad infection rate in terms of getting to a stage where we have herd immunity. The more people who have had the virus the better as it is now known that people do produce antibodies to protect them from reinfection. This means that 96 percent of UK population could still catch the virus. It is estimated that around 130000 people currently have the virus but this will fall if the UK can keep the Reproduction Rate R below 1.

10th May 2020 UK Prime Minister Statement and Risk Management Plan Aimed At Just England As Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland Have Own Lockdown Rules

The roadmap to recovery from the pandemic will be set out in detail in parliament tomorrow

The 5 tests to lifting lockdown measures will remain:

  1. Will not do anything that threatens NHS
  2. Death rate must be falling
  3. Infection rate must be falling
  4. Must have solved the problem in the supply of personal protection equipment PPE
  5. Make sure that any lifting of lockdown measures does not push virus Reproduction Rate above 1.

The UK Prime Minister statement has given an indication that England lockdown measures is set to diverge from that in the other parts of the UK.

The key to lifting lockdown measures will be the level of R nationally and locally. The closer to 1 the riskier it is to lift lockdown measures.

The UK is currently just under 1 so there is little room to lift lockdown measures just now. However the Prime Minister seems to contradict this be saying that everyone in UK should now return to work.

BusinessRiskTV

The UK government will announce five alert levels up to 5 with 5 being material risk of NHS being overwhelmed to indicate where we are at anytime.

Before the UK can materially lift lockdown measures the UK needs a better system of testing combined with new track and trace process. New system will be able to detect localised flare ups for more regionally variation in lockdown measures as we progress through recovery process.

We should all now go back to work according to UK Prime Minister but only if you can without using public transport. If you can work from home you still should. If cannot work from home then should go to work if you can work safely. There maybe less than 10 percent capacity on public transport.

BusinessRiskTV

Construction workers and manufacturers should all return to work if you can do so without using public transport and can work safely incorporating safe social distancing.

It will take many more months of different levels of lockdown measurers before the UK can recover from pandemic.

The second step is planned for 1st of June including opening of some shops and some school children will return to school.

Step 3 is aimed at July at earliest and will include reopening some parts of hospitality industry.

It will soon be the case that people arriving into the UK from anywhere will have to self quarantine for 14 days in private residence. This includes flights train and ports.

More details of the roadmap to recovery will be given in parliament tomorrow. However after the Prime Ministers statement there is more uncertainty and contradictions on the steps businesses can take towards recovery. Hopefully tomorrow it will all become clear.

  • Unlimited exercise outside will this week be allowed in England and perhaps in other parts of the UK.

9th May 2020 South Korea is dancing with the coronavirus pandemic. Brazil and South America are about to be beaten up by it. Others like Russia and maybe North Korea are unveiling its destructive rampage.

Seoul in South Korea has closed bars and night clubs due to a spike in infections from its leisure district. If people in the west think we will be drinking in bars and restaurants before 2021 without vaccine they maybe mistaken. One young man in his 20s caused a spike in infections in Seoul leisure district by going from bar to bar whilst being infected and perhaps not suffering any symptoms. The UK would not even have capability to track and trace in this way so we may have lots of spikes in infections with no idea why it was spiking and have to resort to relockdown for everyone.

Brazil is pumping out consistent stats that should frighten the world. It is already the worst affected country in South America but its exposure to the virus is greater than America which has had close to 80000 deaths and still generates close to 30000 new infection on a bad day.

Russia and North Korea have hidden the number of deaths from their people. Not only are they a threat to themselves but to the world from imported infections.

Sweden continues to throw people under the bus with its open society when compared to its cultural equivalents like Denmark Norway and Finland.

Sweden Coronavirus Strategy Analysis
Sweden Coronavirus Risk Management Strategy Analysis By BusinessRiskTV

When the UK dances with the R number we will soon realise that we are a long way from lifting of lockdown measures without vaccine. South Korea the best practice country in terms of controlling virus spread has found that infections quickly spike when lockdown measures are eased.

When the First World War finished the UK then had to cope with the Spanish Flu which killed 228000. The worst affected then was 20 to 40 year olds.

The biggest lesson for the UK then was that it was the second wave of the virus that really did the damage.

BusinessRiskTV

If the UK let’s the R number rise we may again lose control of the coronavirus. What followed the Spanish Flu was the Great Depression in the 1920s. The UK government should not let its desire to escape pandemic economic meltdown push it into a second wave pandemic meltdown that damages the UK and causes depression not just a recession.

  • If the UK returned to normal commuting and working prepandemic but still observed 2 metre social distancing rule current transportation systems could only carry 10 percent of what is needed.
  • The UK and indeed all countries need to adopt 14 day quarantine for people coming into the country. Imported virus outbreaks will become big problem. There is so much virus spreading in the UK at the moment that imported cases from the little people movement there currently is from abroad is irrelevant. When the UK gets internal domestic virus transmission under control what comes in from abroad will become very important. Many countries will have uncontrolled virus spread for months perhaps years. 14 day quarantine rule will be crucial to protect UK. Some countries may need to be banned temporarily. Outbreaks from imported cases will need to be stamped on and out via testing contact tracing and isolation.

6th May 2020 UK Prime Minister Indicates Some Lockdown Measures May Be Eased On Monday If Stats Go The Way He Expects

UK Prime Minister says he bitterly regrets epidemic currently trampling through care homes in UK.

Local Resilience Forums LRFs 38 in England are working with armed forces to ensure coordinated response to pandemic. LRFs are also delivering personal protective equipment and essential supplies are delivered to care homes and vulnerable people in the community.

UK wants construction work to restart or continue wherever it is safe to do so incorporating social distancing measures.

  • Only 69463 tests for virus completed yesterday despite saying the UK has over 100000 capacity to test every day.
  • The UK had 6111 new infections yesterday.
  • 13615 people are in UK hospitals with virus down around 300 in 24 hours.
  • More than 30000 people have died in UK from the virus up 649 in 24 hours across all settings including hospitals care homes and in the community such as own homes. Deaths are probably even higher as some deaths are still not recorded in official statistics. The number of official deaths each day are generally falling trendwise.

5th May 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 693 To 29427

The UK now has highest death toll from virus in Europe.

  • New admissions to hospitals in UK with Covid19 continues to fall.
  • Less than a third of critical care beds in UK now filled with people suffering from Covid19.
  • Deaths in UK care homes continues to rise whilst deaths in hospitals are falling.

4th May 2020 UK To Pilot NHS Track and Trace App On Isle Of Wight Tomorrow

UK government appeals to 80000 households on the Isle of Wight to download NHS Track and Trace App ahead of pilot going live tomorrow. The App uses Bluetooth tech to identify people you come into close contact with.

The App allows the UK to track and trace people infected with virus without a human being involved. People with App who are tested positive for virus advise the NHS via the App. The App then alerts all App users who have come into contact the positively tested person asking them all to self isolate for 14 days in order to restrict the risk of spreading the virus. Such a measure will enable lockdown measures to be lifted quicker.

UK government is recruiting 18000 people to start test track and trace for the whole UK by the middle of May. These people will be used in addition to App. However they will use test results to track trace and alert by phone or face to face. Contact tracers will alert potentially infected people to self isolate for 14 days as they have come into contact with someone who has tested positive for the virus. This is a more focused form of lockdown compared to locking down everyone in the community.

  • UK deaths from coronavirs across all settings rise by 288 including care homes hospitals and wider community such as peoples own homes. 28734 have died in the UK from the virus across all settings.
  • UK deaths from coronavirus in hospitals rise by 229. Daily death rate maybe artificially low due to the weekend issues of recording and reporting deaths.
  • The UK has 3413 spare critical care beds. It will soon mothball the temporary Nighingale hospital in London due to the success of protecting the NHS via lockdown measures.
  • More than 13000 people are in hospital across the UK with the virus. This is a reducing number.
  • UK now has capacity to test 108000 per day. However for the second day running the UK has failed to test 100000 people per day after testing more than 120000 on Friday.
  • UK medical experts checking to see if having virus creates antibodies. The overwhelming majority of people do have antibodies in their blood stream. However it is not certain whether they will protect you from reinfection of virus if if they do for how long you will have protection. Studies are continuing and progressing. Currently no guarantee that having had virus you are protected from getting infected again.

1st May 2020 UK Reached Its Goal Of Carrying Out 100000 Tests Per Day By End Of Month

The UK carried out 122347 tests yesterday. Boosting daily tests will enable the UK to move forward its recovery from the pandemic including Test Track and Trace to reduce virus transmission. Testing will help the UK lift lockdown measures.

  • UK deaths from coronavirus rise by 739 across all settings in last 24 hours.
  • NHS is to resume fertility services.

30th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus In All Settings Rise By 674 To 26711

UK Prime Minister announces that he thinks the UK is now officially past peak of pandemic disease in UK.

The UK completed over 81611 tests yesterday. We will find out tomorrow if the UK government hit its 100000 tests per day by end of month. Whilst UK government is managing expectations on daily tests it is still possible it will be up to 100000 tests by end of today.

UK government has set 5 key tests to meet before lockdown measures can be eased:

  1. Must be sure can protect NHS
  2. Must see sustained fall in daily deaths
  3. Must be sure infection rate is faling
  4. Must overcome current testing and PPE provision shortfalls and issues
  5. Must all make sure avoid second peak which means must not do anything that takes Reproduction Rate R above 1.

R was 3 at the start of the pandemic. UK must keep R below 1. R number cannot be above 1 if we are to bring the pandemic under control. R measurement will be the key factor on assessing lifting of lockdown measures. Currently R in UK is between 0.6 and 0.9. As the weeks progress the UK will more actively and more accurately measure R in the community which will heavily influence lifting of lockdown measures in coming months.

  • Number of daily infections falling.
  • New admissions to UK hospitals falling.
  • Number of people in UK hospitals falling.
  • Number of people in critical care falling.
  • Number of daily deaths in all settings is falling.

UK government may not lift lockdown measures in coming week but it will set out next week how the UK plans to extract itself from the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

A big first step will be creating the right environment for those businesses not barred from being open that have nevertheless closed reopening. This will include encouraging people back to work with safe travelling to work and safe workplace guidelines for employers and employees to follow.

29th April 2020 UK Deaths In All Settings From Coronavirus Means Offical Figures Rise By 3811 To 26097 Deaths In UK

The massive daily jump is due to a change in the way official death statistics are complied each day. The daily figure will from today cover deaths from all settings including deaths in hospitals in care homes and in the wider community such as deaths in peoples own home.

However the change in method of recording deaths also demonstrates how the UK has really been significantly under represented the human cost of the pandemic in the UK. The way the UK collates stats has created confusion and misrepresented the UKs experience of the pandemic compared to other countries. This has been exasperated by a lack of testing over last couple of months.

Todays massive daily jump probably still under represents the actual death toll in UK as there is still a delay in getting figures into the public domain and official stats. Furthermore the tragic new figure does not include people who are thought to have died from virus but were not physically formally tested for the virus.

  • 765 UK deaths in last 24 hours in all settings. 578 people died in UK hospitals alone over last 24 hours.
  • UK testing capacity is currently 73000 per day.
  • 16 percent drop in the number of people in UK hospitals with virus. Around 15000 people are in hospital now.
  • Daily deaths in hospital are falling. Deaths in all settings in UK is showing signs of reduction.
  • If you include deaths in all settings the UK is on a worse death timeline than Italy Spain and France.

28th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 586 to 21678

One third of coronavirus deaths in England and Wales are occurring in care homes. However care home deaths are not included in UK government official death figures from coronavirus Covid19.

If you include deaths from virus outside of hospital environment including care home deaths the UK deaths timeline is worse than Italy Spain and France and is one of the worst in the world.

UK government will now publish deaths in community every day instead of weekly. These daily stats will include deaths in care homes every 24 hours.

  • Testing: on track to meet goal of 100000 tests per day. Currently have capacity to undertake 73400 tests per day. Actual number of tests completed are not as high as capacity to test. Tests only work if you have the virus now not if you have had the virus in the past.
  • All care home workers and all residents now to have access to tests where symptoms are present.
  • Testing for all over 65s where there is symptoms within household will now be available.
  • Tests will now be available to workers who leave home for work and their families if they or members of family have symptoms. This will enable workers to return to work from self isolation quicker.
  • There are currently 3260 spare critical care beds across the NHS.
  • A new NHS Virus Contact Tracing App is planned for 3 weeks time. At the same time the UK government hopes to have recruited 18000 contact tracers to contact people who have come into contact with person with virus and asking them to self isolate.

27th April 2020 UK Hospital Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 360

UK government announces short term life assurance scheme for front line NHS staff. Families of NHS front line staff killed by virus will receive £60000.

Government launches new scheme to help small businesses. It will guarantee 100 percent of loan to small businesses. Small businesses eligible for new loans worth up to £50000.

  • Number of daily deaths are falling however the last 24 hours falls maybe more to do with delays in recording deaths in hospitals over every weekend.
  • New cases in UK are flat or trending slightly downwards.
  • People in hospital in UK with virus are decreasing.
  • People in critical care beds in UK are falling. Around 40 percent of critical care beds are free.
  • The reduced pressure on NHS means the UK can start restoration of some normal planned NHS services including elective surgery from tomorrow. The amount of normal resumption will depend on local spare capacity around the UK. The Nightingale hospitals provide a cushion to further waves of Covid19 and provide normal hospitals room to restore normal work. Nightingale hospitals will not be used for non Covid19 treatment.
  • UK undertook 37000 tests yesterday and is on track to do 100000 per day by end of month.
  • UK government may impose 14 day quarantine for people entering country after the spread in community falls further. Imposing a quarantine when the spread in the community is high provides little if any benefit.
  • Severe illness in children from a related inflammatory issue connected to Covid19 is a cause for concern but medical experts do not know if there is a link to these new symptoms in a rare number of children in the UK.

25th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rises By 813 To 20319

24th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 684 To 19506

UK has signed trilateral agreement with France and Ireland to keep freight routes open throughout pandemic. Money will be provided to help keep crucial ferry services running for freight movement.

Screening of overseas visitors is less effective when the virus is prevalent in the UK community. In addition people can be screened and found not to have virus on entry to UK but actually they do have virus so screening of overseas visitors is very ineffective.

UK government has fast tracked project for trials of medical supplies being delivered by drones in Southampton.

There are no British holidaymakers left stranded anywhere in the world.

Website for booking tests did not crash when it opened today. The available booking slots for the day were simply booked very quickly. Tests are available for key workers as defined by UK government who feel they have symptoms of virus to check to see if they do have the virus. The test does not tell you if you have had the virus in the past only if you have it now. You should not take a test slot if you do not think you have symptoms of virus.

23rd April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 616 To 18738

The UK now has the capacity to test 51000 per day. The numbers actually being tested is a lot lower. As a result the UK government is expanding who can now be tested for free to increase numbers tested.

The increased capacity to test now means that all essential workers can book an appointment for a test and includes essential worker families.

  • UK government is also introducing home testing.
  • There are now 31 drive through regional test centres up and running across UK. 48 in total are planned.
  • New popup mobile test centres will also be driven around the country by British Army.

When the number of new people infected falls the UK government will reintroduce comprehensive track and trace system. This will facilitate a further reduction in the spread of the virus. For example people who are not exhibiting symptoms but are infected can be traced and isolated to stop them spreading virus.

UK government has already started recruiting a total of 18000 people to track and trace new people infected once a lower level of new people infected is reached.

22nd April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 759 To 18100

Five principles have to be passed before the UK will relieve the lockdown measures designed to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed reduce spread of virus and save lives.

We do not have a reliable very good test for people who have had the virus in UK. It is needed to identify the percentage of people who have had virus. It is crucial to identify when herd immunity as been reached to enable lockdown measures to be more freely lifted.

Lifting of lockdown measures will depend on many factors including deaths from non coronavirus reasons. Part of the decision process has to acknowledge that people are also dying due to having lockdown in place not the the virus itself.

Lockdown measures of some sort or some level will be required in the UK for a very long time without a vaccine according to England Chief Medical Officer. A vaccine that works and is safe maybe possible within a few months however it will be many months before a vaccine is available for widespread manufacture and use.

Nightingale hospitals could in future be utilised as part of overall improvement of healthcare provision within a pandemic. This could include moving coronavirus treatment to Nightingale hospitals whilst local hospitals provide more of the traditional healthcare services. This would be a useful way to catch up with other health condition treatment necessarily reduced to cope with the initial pandemic effects on NHS.

21st April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus By 828 To 17337

There is a record number of available critical care beds ready and available to treat Covid19 patients. Harrogate temporary Nightingale hospital has been officially opened today.

UK government now working with 159 UK manufacturers of personal protective equipment PPE to supply PPE to the frontline in addition to international supplies.

Two world leading vaccine development projects are making rapid progress and are based in the UK. One vaccine will be clinically trailed on UK people starting this week.

  • The total number of people in hospital with Covid19 is largely levelling out in most areas of UK.
  • Many hundreds probably thousands of deaths are not recorded in UK official coronavirus deaths statistics. The UK only records deaths in hospitals in official deaths stats. Deaths in care homes multi dwelling buildings and at home in community are not included.
  • UK now has capacity to test 40000 people per day but is only testing around 20000 per day. Many complaints from businesses and people cannot get to some test centres. UK government says it is expanding home testing to try to make access to testing easier. Increased testing capacity has facilitated a drop in key workers needing to self isolate and not being at work.
  • PPE use by general public policy is still currently that now is not the right time to recommend general wearing of PPE in public. Main priority is to protect key workers.

20th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 449 To 16509

An unexpected lower daily death rate in UK offers some hope that the worst of the virus has passed. Daily deaths will remain high for weeks even if it has passed. The next few days will give better indication of the UKs pandemic outbreak position. The UK has 5 tests too assess before a lifting of lockdown measures can be enacted.

  • Number of new infections is stable and flat.
  • The number of people in hospital with Covid19 is level each day or even falling in some areas like London.
  • UK trying to improve procurement of personal protective equipment PPE domestically and internationally. The UK government and its medical advisers are urging users of PPE to use it in line with new PPE guidelines at least until PPE supply issues resolved. There is a denial that new PPE guidelines are unsafe for workers needing PPE and say still in line with World Health Organisation WHO guidelines. UK government medical advisers deny that new PP guidelines have only been brought in due to inadequate supply of PPE.
  • 140000 already applied for UK job retention scheme. It is hoped that over 8 million jobs in UK will be saved by the furlough scheme where 80 percent of salary will be paid by government.
  • 12000 loans have been granted under the UK business loan scheme being administered by UK lenders. No sign yet that government will increase underwriting of loans to 100 percent in an effort to speed up issuance of more loans to businesses quicker.

19th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Break Through 16000 Mark

Deaths recorded in UK hospitals have risen by 596 in last 24 hours however this lower daily figure compared to recent days may be more to do with a lag in administration and recording of hospital deaths.

The number of people in UK hospitals with the virus is falling in some areas and levelling out in most parts of the country.

  • There is increasing evidence that obesity increases the risk of dying from coronavirus. Being male and being older than 50 also increases the risk of dying from the virus. Other under lying medical conditions increase the risk of dying including preexisting respiratory problems like asthma.

18th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 888 To 15464

UK official figures do not include deaths in care homes other multi occupancy buildings or in the community in peoples own homes. The actual death including these areas could be up to 50 percent higher. No one knows for certain not even the Office for National Statistics ONS.

  • Local councils in England to be given an extra 1.6 billion pounds of new funding to support English councils through pandemic crisis. Extra money will also be provided to independent governing bodies in Northern Ireland Wales and Scotland through Barnett formula.
  • 90 percent of all rough sleepers have been offered accommodation to get off streets during pandemic.
  • All parks in England must now remain open though people must congregate in groups in parks. The UK government is issuing instructions to reopen all parks.
  • Close families must now be allowed to attend funerals. Some councils have prohibited attending funerals. Others have restricted numbers. UK government is issuing instructions to try to relieve pain and suffering of families and create a more consistent approach to funeral attendance.
  • The number of people with virus in UK hospitals is falling in most areas. Should lockdown measures be relieved too early this would quickly reverse and result in longer total lockdown period.
  • Appears to be disproportionate impact of virus on BAME communities though further research is required including research into why and what steps are required to lower risk if there is higher risk.
  • Barbour and Burberry are making personal protective equipment PPE but UK government criticised for not galvanising and organising SMEs or other larger businesses to produce sufficient PPE in adequate quantities to meet PPE demand. There is a particular shortage of gowns and the resulting downgrading of guidance on use of gowns as a result.
  • It is likely that in the UK only a small percentage of people have been infected indeed in single figures. This is bad. We have already had more than 15000 deaths with less than 10 percent of UK population infected. It is thought that as much as 80 percent of the UK population could get the virus which could equate to over 120000 deaths. In addition it means that herd immunity protection is far off even if it is possible.
  • The World Health Organisation WHO is not yet convinced that people will be immune or if immune immune for a long time. Without immunity post virus contraction herd immunity protection does not work at all and means that once you have had the virus you can be reinfected quickly. Without herd immunity we will not get rid of this pandemic until vaccine is produced in very large quantities. A vaccine is unlikely to be ready until 2021. With low immunity and low percentage of people infected it means some level of lockdown measures will be in place until 2021 without a vaccine.

17th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 847 To 14576

UK aiming for capacity to test 100000 per day by end of April. Current capacity is only 38000 per day although we are only actually testing 21000 per day.

UK government has extended UK furlough scheme until the end of June 2020. The furlough scheme enables the UK government to pay 80 percent of wages of businesses under the scheme. Furlough scheme is designed to reduce the need to make people redundant due to business slowdown and global economic recession.

Only around 10 percent of planned business loans have actually been paid out to businesses. The government plan is to facilitate 330 billion pounds of business loans. Only 3.7 billion pounds worth of loans have so far been paid out.

  • For at least next 3 weeks people must not go to work if they can work from home to protect NHS and save lives.
  • Vaccine Taskforce being set up to research develop and produce a vaccine in quantity the UK and the world needs. Vaccine that is safe effective and manufactured in significant quantities is still not likely until 2021.
  • NHS capacity to manage risk from coronavirus will not be overwhelmed. Demand for beds will not exceed supply of beds. Numbers needing a hospital bed in some areas of UK like London are falling already.

16th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 861 To 13729

UK official death figures do not include deaths from the virus outside of a hospital and includes care homes other multi occupancy homes and private dwelling homes in the community.

  • In the community the virus is shrinking though in care homes it may be expanding. The UK will stay in lockdown for at least another 3 weeks to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and save lives.
  • The number of people in hospital bed with virus is levelling off and in some areas of UK reducing.
  • The UK is behind Italy in terms of deaths timeline but is tracking their experience almost exactly.
  • In the UK twice as many men have died from virus than women.
  • More than 90 percent of the people who have died in UK have died with at least one other underlying condition.
  • Being young without an underlying condition makes your chance of surviving the virus high though it does not mean you will not be severely affected. However around 80 percent of people with the virus will have mild to no symptoms.
  • Admissions to hospital Accident and Emergency departments are around half of what they were at this time last year suggesting that many people are not visiting hospitals when they otherwise would have. This in part will down to things like fewer accidents as people are in lockdown. It may also be due to peoples fear of going to hospital in case they catch virus there. People who may have life threatening conditions other than the virus must still go to hospital as not going may threaten their survival more than the virus does.

15th April 2020 Could Be Up To 4000 Extra Deaths So Far In UK Care Homes From Coronavirus

National Records Scotland have released figures today to reveal that 25% of deaths from Covid19 are in care homes and not therefore in official death figures which only show deaths in hospitals.

This means that 75% of deaths from virus are in hospitals largely though also a few in own houses and other multi dwelling residencies. If the official figures are 12000 people have died in UK hospitals it means that the true figure for deaths in care homes in UK is up to 4000 higher than 12000.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus in UK Hospitals Rise By 761 To 12868. Official deaths do not include deaths from virus in care homes other multiple occupancy residences and UK private dwelling houses.
  • More than 2000 care homes in UK have at least one infection of virus. England Chief Medical Officer previously reported at UK government briefing that 13.5 percent of care homes had at least one infection outbreak.
  • UK government will now ramp up testing of care workers and residential care home residents now that the UK has more testing capacity each day. It will also look again at personal protective equipment provision to social care workers. Care workers and residents of care homes with virus symptoms will now be tested.
  • UK government to facilitate recruiting tens of thousands more into social care including paying for induction training required for social care workers.
  • Some reports that UK elderly not being admitted to hospitals when they should be and are being recklessly discharged from hospitals back to care homes when they should not be.
  • Evidence that local councils are not releasing money to care homes that has been provided to them from central government or that central government has not provided additional money promised to local councils for social care in recent UK budget.
  • New procedures to be introduced to make saying good bye to loved ones before they die are to be introduced.
  • More than 3000 fines have been issued by police in UK over recent couple of weeks for non compliance with four stay at home rules designed to protect NHS from being overwhelmed and to save lives.
  • Overall crime in UK has fallen by 28 percent year on year. Anti social behaviour has risen by 59 percent year on year.
  • Only 1 billion pounds worth of loans have been issued to help keep UK businesses alive out of the 33 billion pounds promised. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that UK banks have not lent money although they have been asked to provide a loan by many business leaders. Many people are calling on UK government to back 100 percent of loans not just 80 percent as the lending scheme to businesses currently is. It is thought by many that this would dramatically increase the number of loans and keep more businesses from going to the wall.
  • Currently UK only has capacity to test around 20000 per day well short of the target of 100000 per day by end of June. Many new testing laboratories are coming on stream including GlaxoSmithKline GSK who hope to test 30000 per day by end of April on their own.
  • UK has more than 2500 spare critical care beds above current demand for a bed. Demand for hospital beds is either levelling off in most areas of UK or even falling in some areas like London.
  • UK has had two weeks where number of new cases have not been an increasing trend although still high in the 4000 to 5000 bracket each day on average. It may mean that the UK is at or approaching the peak infection period of the pandemic. However we cannot say confidently that the peak has now passed. This means the UK cannot expect lockdown measures to be lifted any time soon.
  • UK still following Italy closely almost exactly in terms of deaths timeline below USA Spain and France. Deaths in UK will remain high in hundreds for weeks even if as the UK passes the peak infection period. The UK can expect a jump up from 761 deaths tomorrow has the administration of deaths in UK hospitals is truly reflected in statistics of daily deaths.
  • Tragically a pregnant nurse has died of the coronavirus. The baby was delivered safely.

14th April 2020 Why are sick people in care homes not getting admitted to hospital?

New figures from the Office of National Statistics ONS today show that 217 deaths in care homes in England and Wales have mentioned Covid19 this year.

Two of the countrys leading care home companies published their own figures today showing 521 deaths.

If just two care homes companies report 521 deaths from Covid19 how come ONS say the whole of England and Wales have had just 217 deaths in care homes? What about all the other care homes deaths figures from Covid19? Surely their figures would mean much higher than 521?

It could be that the two biggest care homes sent their residents to hospital and they died there and entered official death figures? Either way there seems to be some discrepancy between ONS figures and what care homes are saying.

Furthermore why are so many people dying in care homes and not hospital? Most people do not die from virus out of the blue. They have symptoms that deteriorate and then they die. Why are sick people in care homes not getting admitted to hospital?

England Chief Medical Officer said in recent government briefing that 13.5 percent of the tens of thousands of care homes had a coronavirus outbreak. This means two things. Firstly there a thousands of people who have died from coronavirus in care homes as just two businesses say they have had 521 deaths. Secondly what is the UK government doing to stop the spread to the 86.5 percent of care homes who do not have virus. The answer here is not enough testing and not enough personal protective equipment PPE provided for care workers and residents.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 778 To 12107. Official figures only cover deaths in hospitals. Deaths in care homes hospices own homes in community and the like not represented in official figures. The death toll could be 50 percent higher. AGE UK says elderly deaths in residential care homes are being airbrushed out of the coronavirus pandemic picture in the UK and Covid19 is running wild in care homes. UK government and medical advisers are not getting the issue with care homes. It is not that we need to know more deaths it is that we know for definite now that UK care homes have a huge problem and the UK government needs to do something about the problem including full testing and more provision of PPE. The figures only allow monitoring of the level of risk in care homes. It is easy to say now that UK government and medical advisers cannot be expected to deal with unknown risk but the Chief Medical Adviser England said very early in pandemic that he thought care homes would present biggest problem to UK so why did we not deal with the biggest problem first? It seems that the Do Not Resuscitate issue has preemptively skewed UK approach to care home coronavirus risk management strategy.
  • UK Economy Forecast By Office for Budget Responsibility OBR To Shrink By 35 Percent By June Before Bouncing Back. This would be the biggest quarterly fall since Second World War. This would equate to an annual economic contraction of 13 percent. Unemployment in UK would hit 10 percent. The OBR figures are based on lockdown measures being in place until June. It is unlikely that full lockdown will be in place until June. It is more likely that they will be gradually lifted in May. Italy and Spain are already lifting some working lockdown rules despite having thousands of new infections and hundreds of new daily deaths. We are supposed to be 2 or 3 weeks behind Italy in the coronvirus timeline. France will be lockdown until May at earliest. The key to risk management measures limiting the human and economic impact of the virus on UK is to stay at home and follow four rules of staying at home. Washing hands is still an important risk control measure no one should forget.
  • Number of people needing a hospital bed is levelling off and perhaps even reducing in some areas. This stat is a forerunner of reducing deaths. However the UK deaths timeline is following Italy quite closely below the likes of Spain and France. We are a couple of weeks behind Italy but Italy had 566 deaths and over 3000 new infection cases yesterday. The UK government should not compound its failure to lockdown quick enough with an order to release lockdown too early. It is better to release lockdown too slowly than to release lockdown too early or too quickly.
  • 20th April Furlow Portal should be open to get money to businesses who have furlowed staff. However when a queue opens that has a product that has high demand the word crash comes to mind! Lets hope the current testing works to avoid crashing so that businesses have money to pay end of month wages.

13th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 717 To 11329

The death toll is definitely lighter than it really has been in last 24 hours. For a start the official UK figures do not cover deaths from virus in care homes and in the community.

In addition UK Monday figures are lighter due to the reporting and administration of death figures in UK over the weekend. This could be especially so this weekend as it was a long Bank Holiday weekend.

Stats on number of new cases in UK continue to be irrelevant as a lack of testing means most people who think they have the virus still do not receive a test and simply self isolate at home without being tested to check if they have or have not been tested. The number of tests are increasing but not even all care workers are being tested never mind members of public self isolating at home cause they think they may have virus.

There are continuing reports of a lack of personal protective equipment PPE for key workers.

The UK is entering its fourth week of lockdown measures. UK is several weeks away from relaxing of lockdown measures. Without massive increase in testing capability relief from lockdown measures will be very difficult to countenance.

More positively the number of people needing a critical care bed in hospital in UK appears to be flattening. This stat is an indicator of future deaths plateauing though immediate UK death rate is likely to increase and stay high.

The time when the UK benefits from falling daily deaths is still weeks away.The time when UK daily deaths is below hundreds is months away.

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The UK is a few weeks away from peak deaths period. When this period does come it will plateau at that high level for a couple of weeks. It will not drop off quickly once peak reached.

  • Official for National Statistics ONS data on deaths outside hospitals will continue to inflate the real death rate in UK from virus or to put it another way the official figures on deaths in UK from virus will continue to under represent the real death rate in UK from virus. The ONS figures are the real figures not the daily figures released by the UK government.
  • Care Homes UK: 13.5 percent of care homes in UK have some level of outbreak. At the start of the outbreak it was anticipated that as much as 80 percent of general public succumb to virus which suggests that many more care homes will be affected by virus.
  • The NHS has spare capacity to meet demand from people suffering from virus to the extent they need hospital admissions.

12th April 2020 UK May Become Worst Affected Country In Europe

The UKs problem is not that the NHS has been overwhelmed. People are not dying cause they cannot get the best care. In other countries like Italy they were dying in part due to inability to access best level care possible cause their excellent healthcare system was overwhelmed. The extraordinary death rates in UK are due to the severity of the virus not the lack of care facilities.

The UKs problem is not due to the lack of ventilators or PPE. The latter is an issue for key workers but not wider UK population. The problem for the UK has been a delayed lockdown by UK government and the lack of testing capability. Partly this is lack of test kits but a huge issue has been lack of laboratory testing or test kits that do not require laboratory tests to be reliable.

With the lack of testing capability the UK must continue to stay at home in lockdown mode for foreseeable future.

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  • UK deaths from coronavirus rise by 737 to 10612. UK weekend death figures can dip due the recording and administration of deaths in hospitals. In addition the official figures never include the deaths in care homes and the community at large so the actual total death figure could easily by 50 percent higher.
  • UK has thousands of spare critical care beds. New Nightingale hospitals around the country will add to this capacity as they come on stream.
  • Businesses in UK increasingly coming forward to provide additional PPE manufacturing capacity.
  • A new UK App is being tested on helping trace infections and protect members of the public.
  • UK is tracking same virus deaths trajectory as Italy and France.
  • Care and nursing homes carers and residents in UK still being poorly catered from in terms of tests and PPE. Up to press care homes have not been able to access appropriate help and protection. It is highly likely that the deaths in care homes in UK and around the world will increase national and global deaths by around 50 percent. It has been recognised by England Chief Medical Officer that this area of the UK will present biggest challenge yet it is the area which seems still to lack appropriate focus and resourcing.

11th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus By 917 To 9875

UK official death figures from coronavirus do not include deaths in residential care homes or in the community. Official figures only cover virus deaths in UK hospitals. Actual virus total deaths could be 50 percent higher.

19 NHS health workers have died in the UK since the beginning of the pandemic.

The number of new infections has risen 5233 to 78991.

  • 1084 fines have been issued in UK to people not complying with four stay at home rules aimed at reducing the spread of the virus and protect NHS and save lives. Police forces trying to rely on policing by consent and persuading people to comply with rules rather than issuing fines.
  • UK has experienced 21 percent fall in overall crime since start of lockdown.
  • Indications of a plateauing of number of people being admitted to UK hospitals with the virus each day. Deaths have been rising and remain very high in comparison to most other countries although some other countries are further ahead in terms of the daily deaths timeline.
  • Personal protective equipment PPE demand by frontline continues anecdotally to outstrip supply. UK government working on boosting supply.
  • In addition to deaths from virus there is concern that people will die from long term health effects of continued lockdown. Picking the right time to slowly lift lockdown measures will be influenced and balanced by these deaths too. It is still not out of the question that there could be stricter lockdown rules including no exercise outside at all similar to other countries.
  • Developing a vaccine is crucial too the return to normal but a vaccine is still probably not going to be available until 2021. However drug treatments to reduce effects of virus are more likely to come quicker than vaccine.
  • Highly likely that this coronavirus will be around for years. We can only hope to control it within months not weeks but it is not going away for years.

10th April 2020 UK Government Begs Everyone To Follow Stay At Home Four Rules

Transmitting the virus today risks lives tomorrow. Stay at home.

UK increasing its testing regime. 19116 tests completed in last 24 hours. Aims to have ability to test 100000 per day by the end of April.

The UK only now has the capacity to test all NHS staff including creating many drive through test numbers across the UK.

UK Public Health working with private companies to massively ramp up testing laboratory capacity to test more people in UK.

Personal protective equipment PPE should be treated as precious resource. The UK is using up PPE on an unprecedented scale. Herculean effort to supply PPE into healthcare workers care workers and key workers. However there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that many people who need PPE do not have enough.

Current science advice is that normal people not caring for others do not need face masks as they do not materially lower the risk of catching the virus. Wearing a face mask as normal member of public takes away a mask from someone who does need one such as key workers. Mass wearing of face masks by general public is not government recommendation. General use of facemasks will be kept under review by UK government.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 980 To 8958. Daily death rate in UK from virus in last 24 hours is largest daily rise in UK so far. UK deaths are accelerating. The UK in very similar deaths from virus trajectory as Italy.
  • UK official death figures could easily be 50 percent higher in reality as the official figures only reflect deaths in hospitals. It does not include deaths in care homes retirement homes and domestic homes.
  • 19304 currently admitted to hospitals around the UK with COVID19
  • Sunderland and Exeter will now have Nightingale hospitals constructed to provide more beds.
  • Economists all predict UK economy will massively contract. On average the contraction is predicted to be 14 percent. This compares to low single digit growth for many years. UK may be lucky and bounce back to low single digit growth if it can quickly bring pandemic under control. Quickly means couple of months of lockdown.
  • Oxygen supply to hospital beds is an issue that can arise in individual hospitals due to engineering and physical problems. Currently the UK does have enough oxygen to supply current demands though this is another reason why people must stay at home and not spread the virus.

9th April 2020 UK To Extend Its Overdraft With Bank Of England To An Unlimited Amount For An Indefinite Period To Ensure UK Government Has As Much Money As It Needs When It Needs It

Should the traditional most used avenue for government spending be blocked then Bank Of England will stump up fake money to spend for real on UK government priorities.

There is a magic money tree but it only blossoms in UK when absolutely needed! Last time the magic money tree was needed was during the 2008 financial crisis caused by lenders and the financial industry.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Covid19 Rise By 881 To 7978. This does not include deaths outside of UK hospitals which could make deaths 50 percent higher.
  • Everybody in UK urged to stay at home over East Holiday weekend.
  • UK lockdown rules will not change until end of next week at earliest and unlikely to change then. The number of people being infected being admitted to hospital and dying every day continues to rise day by day. Deaths are still frighteningly high.
  • UK death from virus timeline now following Italy closely.
  • The amount of people admitted to critical care bed units used to be doubling every 3 days in UK hospitals. Now doubling every 6 or more days which suggests that lockdown rules are working to reduce number of very ill people which will eventually work to reduce number of deaths.
  • Still room in intensive care facilities now throughout the UK and number of available beds will increase as Nightingale hospitals around the UK are opened.
  • Chief Medical Officer says that Office for National Statistics ONS figures on deaths from coronavirus will be available next week. They will include deaths outside of hospitals as well as in hospitals and include care homes for example. The ONS figures will show higher virus deaths in UK.
  • It is very possible according to England Chief Technical Officer that only ten percent of the people in the UK have or have had the virus in the UK. Perhaps less. This is actually not great. The more people who have the virus the closer we get to herd immunity and normalisation of society. Without a vaccine it means that as restrictions are lifted the UK is likely to experience a spike of new cases. We need to know for certain and the only way we will know for certain is a massive increase in daily testing well above 100000 per day. At the moment testing is around the 15000 per day. Lifting the lockdown rules too early to save the UK economy would make a spike in infections very threatening to life and the UK economy. Before we can make decisions on lifting the lockdown we need massive ramp up of testing. It is unlikely that that will be practical until May at earliest more likely June.

8th April 2020 Second NHS Nightingale Hospital To Open On Friday In Birmingham National Exhibition Centre Providing 500 Beds Initially Potentially Increasing To 2000 If Needed

It will be weeks before the UK can seriously think about lifting lock down restrictions. The peak needs to pass and that has at least a couple of weeks. There needs to be strong evidence that the UK has reduced numbers of people in hospital with the virus and can cope with a sudden surge in new admissions when lockdown measures are lifted.

The number of infections will spike when lockdown measures are lifted. Indeed in some respects we need to spike the infections to create a level of herd immunity that will help bring epidemic under control. If a vaccine or drug to control the virus is not produced soon then the UK like every other country in the world will have repeated infection spikes over months.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 938 To 7097.This figure relates only to those who died in hospital from the virus. The actual numbers could be 50 percent higher if you include those who died outside a hospital.
  • UK charities will receive some additional support from UK government. 750 million pounds in grants will be given to UK charities. The UK government will in addition match an upcoming televised charity fund raising event pound for pound raised by the event.
  • The disappointing higher daily infection of 5492 cases in last 24 hours is a spike up from recent daily amounts. The worst number of deaths in a 24 hour period is particularly painful to bear.
  • UK virus deaths timeline is now in better place than France and Italy which is encouraging as previously we looked to be heading into same tragic place.
  • UK lock down is likely to continue beyond next week simply because too many people are testing positive for the virus and there is accelerating demands being placed on UK healthcare systems. Staying at home rules will continue.

7th April 2020 According To Latest Figures From The Office For National Statistics ONS The Number Of People Dying Outside Hospitals In UK From Coronavirus Is Between Perhaps 5 and 10 Percent Of All Deaths From Coronavirus

Deaths outside hospitals include people dying at home in a hospice or retirement home. There is a shortage of virus test kits so if you are not in a hospital before your die then it is highly unlikely you will have been tested for the virus before you die. Those outside hospitals who die are assessed by doctors and a decision reached as to whether the virus was or was not cause of death. However when the number of deaths in hospital from the virus start to rise above 5000 we can estimate that the number of deaths in retirement homes is possibly in the several hundreds.

If the good outcome of 20000 deaths suggested by UK medical experts is the end number of deaths in UK from the virus then it is highly likely that thousands of deaths occurred in retirement homes in UK.

Retirement homes in many countries around the world have become hotspots of the virus to expand. Both the residents and the carers are at risk. When the carers return home they risk spreading the virus wider. That is why the UK government should be placing more emphasise on controlling risks in retirement homes as well as the compassionate reasons to protect those persons more directly at greater risk in retirement homes the residents and the carers. Testing of residents and carers in UK is either rare or non existent. Protective personal equipment for carers and residents has often be lacking. Even things like hand sanitisers have been in short supply.

The UK like other countries is neglecting the risk from and in retirement homes and more people are dying in and outside retirement homes as a result.

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  • Over 9 percent of care homes in UK have live virus cases and the Chief Medical Officer England thinks this percentage will rise. He also says that care homes in UK have and will continue to present one of the greatest challenges during virus epidemic.
  • Countries around the world do not include deaths in care homes and retirement homes in their virus death statistics according to our UK medical experts. Therefore the numbers of deaths in each country are likely to be higher than official statistics. How much higher will depend on how well each country manages the virus risks in care homes and retirement homes.
  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus in UK hospitals Rise 786 To 6159. This figure does not include people who die from virus outside hospital including retirement homes other homes and personal domestic dwellings.
  • New infection cases in UK rise 3634 in last 24 hours. Whilst this reflects an improving situation care needs to be taken as numbers of new infections can be lower if the number of tests also fall. It does appear to be an improving trend over last week or so. UK tests have increased considerably so the optimistic positive trend in infections is also backed up by fewer people being admitted to hospitals than were anticipated. However the UK is a long way from acting on an Exit Strategy. We are following France virus timeline who are ahead of UK but France has had worst day for deaths with 1417 people dying in 24 hours. .
  • UK is still around 2 to 3 weeks behind Italy in terms of the our epidemic timeline. This may not mean we have the same number of deaths as in Italy but it is more than likely that deaths per day in UK will remain high for foreseeable future.
  • UK has still not hit peak infection period even although the UK has recorded highest daily deaths total in last 24 hours of 786 deaths.
  • 14000 tests in single day so number of tests are at last making progress.
  • Number of ICU critical care beds across the whole UK have already increased 3o percent but more will come online with new Nightingale hospitals opening across the UK. On current trends the medical experts are anticipating that NHS healthcare services will not be overwhelmed. In other words although demand for beds will rise there will be enough beds for everyone who needs one.
Coronavirus Pandemic UK Infection Cases Update COBR
Coronavirus Pandemic UK Infection Cases Update. CLICK HERE or email editor@businessrisktv.com for more information on managing the business risk from coronavirus pandemic.

6th April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 439 To 5373

The official numbers of deaths does not include those who have passed away in the community likely to have died from COVID19 like those who have died in retirement homes in UK.

Slight dip in UK daily death rate may be down to recording and administration of deaths over weekend rather than downward movement of death rate.

  • UK Prime Minister is in hospital as a precaution with continuing symptoms of the coronavirus. There is a concern as the impact of the virus on an individual is not immediate. Debilitating condition progresses. Being admitted to hospital is one measure but being put on ventilator can take weeks before necessary. In addition the UK Prime Minister looks to be obese and obesity is an underlying condition that can kill you if you contract virus.
  • UK government still working on arrangements to bring home UK nationals. 200000 people have already been brought back to UK from abroad.
  • Is the virus spread slowing enough to stop NHS services being overwhelmed? It is too soon to tell if the stay at home rules are going to stop NHS being overwhelmed.
  • UK still tracking death rate timeline of France which is remarkably similar to both Italy and USA.
  • Exit Strategy will depend on UK virus testing capability and availability of drugs to treat virus sufferers. When to lift lockdown will also be a risk and reward decision that will also have to take account of the impact on healthcare from sustained economic damage from pandemic. UK government does not want to talk in terms of Exit Strategy through fear people in the UK will become complacent regards four stay at home rules.
  • Only a small proportion of the UK population have any antibodies so antibody test is irrelevant at this stage of the UKs timeline of dealing with the epidemic. It will be weeks before this is important perhaps even months. We will need this time to develop accurate antibody test. No country in the world currently has home based antibody test that can be rolled out to the community.
  • Still an emphasise on providing loans for viable businesses rather than blank chequebook approach to any business.

5th April 2020 Its Gonna Be Tight On Whether NHS Is Overwhelmed By Coronavirus and More People Would Die If It Is

Many thousands perhaps another 16000 people are going to die in UK from coronavrius. If ventilator capacity is overwhelmed during peak infection period a lot more will die. The only thing between a lot of deaths and a lot more deaths is washing hands social distancing self isolation stay at home and save lives.

The UK has enough ventilators according to UK Health Secretary based on the above risk management practices being observed in UK. Should we not follow this risk management strategy we may only have half the number of ventilators we need which means many more thousands will die. The decision before us over next few weeks is do we self isolate and save lives or go out and kill people.

If you think its nearly over think again. We are months away from that and when we think its over it will come back in fits and starts. Hunker down for the long haul and do what needs to be done or what is bad will become horrific. Look to China to see how life can be in future and look to USA to see how it could be for us if we underestimate this virus. There have been 630 virus related deaths in New York in last 24 hours alone.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 621 To 4934
  • Public exercise could be banned if people in UK flout the rules according to UK Health Secretary. Thousands of people have been sun bathing in UK public parks.
  • Personal protective equipment PPE upgrades in guidelines are down to changes in experience and knowledge of the coronavirus. Old advice was based on what UK knew of the virus at the time.
  • Health Secretary says that the UK has enough supplies of its needs.
  • Deputy Chief Medical Officer England said it has always been the case that retirement homes carers and residents are tested whenever coronavirus outbreaks suspected. However there is a great deal of anecdotal evidence that retirement homes personnel who have asked for virus tests have not been provided threatening greater spread within and outside retirement homes.
  • The End Game or Exit Strategy for UK when epidemic dissipates depends on how many people have had virus in community how long immunity lasts and what happens if areas of UK with less infections are released from lockdown and likelihood of infections rising fast again.
  • No country in the world currently has good risk knowledge on levels of immunity in the community. This means it is currently impossible to predict when the end of the epidemic will come.
  • Matt Hancock Health Secretary did not answer questions about Scottish Chief Medical Officer. He did not say whether he would sack his chief medical officer if he went to his second home on two weekends in a row flouting UK stay at home rules. Matt Hancock also did not let Deputy Chief Medical Officer England answer whether she had second home she had been to and did not let her answer whether she thought the Scottish Chief Medical Officers position was untenable after she failed to follow her own rules to protect NHS and save lives. There are credibility and fairness issues here. Levelling up also means that the rules apply to everyone including the Prince of Wales and Scottish Chief Medical Officer. How should people react when they are fined as many hundreds across UK have for not following four stay at home rules? What happens to the effectiveness of stay at home rules. Being protected at the top by the people at the top is not equitable. Following four rules is mission critical to speeding up end of epidemic and risks the lives of more people. Matt Hancock says if you break the four stay at home rules in the UK you are harming everyone in the UK. Instead of warning UK public exercising outside could be prohibited if they do not comply with stay at home rules the police should be fining Prince of Wales and Scottish Chief Medical Officer. That would demonstrate the seriousness of the situation the importance of the stay at home rules and that we are all in this together.
  • 27000 former NHS workers have returned to work in NHS to bolster the fight against pandemic.

4th March 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 708 To 4313

UK has one of if not the worst day for deaths in the world in last 24 hours. It was certainly the most number of deaths in one day for UK.

Countries like Italy France and Spain are still suffering but USA is likely to suffer more each new day for weeks. USA suffered 1321 deaths from the virus yesterday and can anticipate this doubling plus in days ahead.

  • A five year old with underlying health conditions is the youngest person to die from the coronavirus in the UK.
  • 7 UK health professionals have now lost their lives to the coronavirus.
  • Only deaths in hospitals are included in UK figures for official coronavirus deaths in the UK. In future the Office For National Statistics ONS will separately report on deaths in the community from coronavirus. This will include deaths in retirement homes for example. It is therefore likely that number of deaths in UK are higher than reflected in current official figures.
  • UK government says stay at home policy is an instruction not a request.
  • Invasive ventilators are increasing. 300 are coming from China. Thousands of new UK invasive and non invasive ventilators are being manufactured in the UK.
  • Sun maybe out this weekend but people in UK should not be out. Crucial to stay at home to avoid transmission and save lives.
  • Infection rates may be levelling out but levelling out at over 4000 new cases per day. UK still only tracking slightly above 10000 tests for virus per day compared to Germany doing more than 70000 per day for weeks. Even key workers still not able to access tests for virus.
  • UK still tracking similar death rate as France. France not released figures for last 24 hours but total deaths since pandemic started likely to have exceeded 7000 and rising fast per day.
  • Ridiculous idiots who have burned down 5G masts condemned by medical experts advising the UK government. 5G masts are not responsible for spreading the virus. Idiots who leave the home to burn down masts are responsible for spreading the virus. They are interrupting something that is vital in the management of the pandemic and that is communication. Without communication provided by masts peoples lives are put in danger.

3rd April 2020 After The Announcement In France That France Has Not Been Including Deaths From Coronavirus In Retirement Homes In Official Daily Deaths Figures The UK Government Needs To Confirm That Deaths Outside Hospitals In UK Have Been Included In UKs Daily Death Figures

French government has announced that 884 deaths in French retirement homes have not been included in official daily coronavirus death figures.

UPDATE FROM UK GOVERNMENT ON DEATHS IN RETIREMENT HOMES IN UK @ 4th April During Daily Coronavirus Briefing From UK Government: Only deaths in hospitals are included in UK figures for official coronavirus deaths in the UK. In future the Office For National Statistics ONS will separately report on deaths in the community from coronavirus. This will include deaths in retirement homes for example. It is therefore likely that number of deaths in UK are higher than reflected in current official figures.

It would appear that we in UK could be as shocked as France and Spain before it, about the number of deaths in retirement homes or similar communal living eg vulnerable people.

There is significant anecdotal evidence to say that there is little to no testing of either the people who live in these places or of the carers who look after them.

In Spain the carers allegedly ran off leaving the residents to their deaths. There is significant evidence in the UK that we are not providing adequate personal protective equipment PPE for carers and residents. They are almost certainly not being tested for virus in most cases as there is not enough tests and PPE for many healthcare workers never mind carers in residential homes.

This is a scandal which seems to be glossed over by governments politicians and journalists that needs to be urgently addressed.

Many of these carers presumably are travelling to their own homes after a shift. They must be spreading the virus within the community and almost certainly their own families.

If you think this needs addressing please like the post on LinkedIn above or make a comment in the post. Somehow it needs a greater profile not just in the UK but across the developed world. I doubt that the UK France and Spain are only ones

One of the positive positions for the UK is the number of people currently in serious critical condition in UK hospitals from coronavirus. Italy Spain and France are ahead of us in pandemic timeline but Germany and Sweden are interesting for a couple of reasons.

  • Firstly Germany is vaunted as more scientifically advanced than UK. However they have a lot of very unwell people in critical care. Is it their policy to put people in critical care where the UK would not and that is why they have fewer deaths? Or is it the case that Germany initially had a lot of young people infected who survived virus but now their older people have been infected who are much more ill.
  • Sweden is bucking the lockdown trend. Sweden is still open for business compared to UK. Plus it has the advantage of around half its population living in single occupancy households whereas Italy for example has nothing like this reduced spreading risk. Sweden is held up as the nation who is not killing their population or their economy. Maybe their population is not as safe with the non lockdown approach as first thought? Hundreds of medical professionals in Sweden have written to Swedish government begging them to follow self isolation and lockdown strategy. Greater restrictions have been imposed but nothing like UK or their Scandinavian neighbours.
  • Norway has followed the crowd with the lockdown approach. They and their neighbours Finland seem to be protecting their population more than Swedens radically different non lockdown approach.
CountryTotal DeathsSerious Critical Cases
China3322379
Italy139154053
UK2921163
Germany11073936
Sweden308429
Norway5096
As of 2nd April 2020 from source Worldometer

Critical care numbers are important as they may indicate a level of future death rates. In some ways having high numbers of serious critical cases is okay if you have enough healthcare resources but the number of deaths coming out of those critically ill is unusually high for critically ill people. In other words the virus is deadly if it hits your body badly. It puzzles and distresses critical care workers why more do not survive once in critical care treatment.

The UK is set to have 13000 more deaths if it achieves its good outcome target where the NHS is not overwhelmed by admissions to hospital so we are not in a good place. However the UKs sudden lockdown policy for weeks perhaps months is the only way known to work without vaccine or drugs to limit deaths.

Economically China may even come out of this with a net economic benefit now its controlled the virus. With low fuel costs its domestic economy could powerfully recover. If only Europe had learned from Chinas mistakes quicker.

China is out of the woods in terms of the economics of the situation. Ironically it needs to hope that USA can turn things around for China to prosper economically. Unfortunately USA was particularly slow to shutdown and some parts of America are still waiting for the dime to drop.

The human cost in America is likely to be much worse than the 200,000 deaths now forecast as it failed and continues to fail to grasp the lockdown nettle. Economically USA and globally the world will suffer from Americas reluctance to take decisive lockdown action quickly. The UK will be no exception.

Australia maybe a good example of what to do if it does whats necessary. Especially if China begins to boom economically. Asia Pacific generally may turn out well. However India could be the timebomb that explodes across that region due to the coronavirus being unleashed with devastating results.

  • First UK nurse death from coronavirus COVID19 reported. Matt Hancock Healh Secretary has been criticised for not have clear figures for numbers of specifically nurses who are off work self isolating or who have died from COVID19. He knew figures for doctors.
  • Two nurses and two healthcare assistants have died in the last 24 hours from the coronavirus.
  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By 684 To 3605.
  • Two additional Nightingale hospitals will now be created in Bristol with 1000 beds and Harrogate with 500 beds. There are 2000 critical care beds available before Nightingale hospitals around the country come on stream.
  • Repurposed drugs already licensed in UK are being clinically trialled in the UK that are hoped to bring an earlier relief from the pandemic than a totally new vaccine will. However this is still some way off too. Three separate clinical trials are running currently. Additional drug trials are planned for other drugs. Results from trials could still be months off. UK needs more current virus patients to agree with their doctors that they are prepared to enter trials to provide quicker more reliable development of drugs.
  • Deputy Chief Medical Officer England reports that the number of UK cases of virus still trending upwards as are hospital admissions and deaths. The UK is still following France deaths trend. The peak of the epidemic in UK is not known or at least not being made public. The UK is currently not anywhere close to running out of ventilators based on current demand and supply. The NHS is currently no where near being overwhelmed by epidemic. Whilst the public is conforming to self isolation rules there is currently no evidence in medical stats that this has yet lowered spread of virus but it is hoped that this will happen over the next couple of weeks if social isolation is maintained. Face masks for members of the public: no evidence wearing of face masks reduces spread of coronavirus in UK society therefore current best practice advice is not to wear masks. Instead self isolate and self distance 2 metres or more. Worse wearing of masks could take away a mask from someone who does need it in healthcare or social care.
  • Do not resuscitate agreements are in many cases being forced on people. Whilst they maybe a practical and often discussed issue many medical practitioners appear to be anecdotally hitting potential future patients. Where they are welcome forward planning they will be useful but medical profession needs to revisit the process and approach to Do Not Resuscitate DNR agreeements so as not to spread fear.
  • No country in world currently has ready to go reliable home antibody test to test if a person has had the virus at some point in past.
  • Where there are problems with personal protective equipment PPE it is down to distribution issues not because there is not enough stock central. There is plenty of PPE so make sure you call the PPE Hotline Helpline if you need PPE 0800 915 9964 or email supplydisruptionservice@nhsbsa.nhs.uk

2nd April 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise 569 To 2921

If and when the NHS services are overwhelmed by the amount of patients with the coronavirus just like Italy and Spain before it the UK will have medics who will have difficult choices on who will have first access to available life saving treatments. The end result will be that more people will die. Those most likely to live will have access to such treatments. Those who are least likely to live will not and are therefore more likely to die. The target everyone is working towards is to ensure that there are still enough life saving resources as and when peak infection period comes in the UK. That means staying at home to prevent the spread of the virus stop the NHS being overwhelmed and save lives.

  • 33718 people have to date been infected with the coronavirus COVID19
  • 12949 have had to be admitted to hospital due to the severity of the symptoms of COVID19
  • 2921 have died. Roughly 1 in 4 people admitted to hospital in UK with the virus is dying even with ample NHS resources to give the best care possible to everybody. This suggests that more than 1 in 4 of hospital admissions will die should the UK hospitals be overwhelmed.
  • 13.4 billion pounds of historic NHS debt now been written off by UK government to give NHS Trusts confidence they can continue with enough money.
  • Testing for the virus has been a weak link in the UK coronavirus pandemic risk management strategy. It appears that this weakness will continue for weeks. There is a shortage of laboratory testing facilities. There has been a shortage of raw materials to make enough test kits to test healthcare workers. Priority was given to patients. Some test kits that could be purchased have failed in terms of quality and the test kits were therefore not purchased. Testing to see if you have the virus has just passed 10000 per day. New testing laboratory capability is being brought online which will boost numbers that can be tested. Slightly less than 6 percent of UK doctors are currently not working cause they do not know if they have the virus for sure and are self isolating unable to work cause they do not have access to test. AntiBody testing to see if you have had virus in past is not yet available in numbers. Together new UK laboratory testing could boost testing to 100,000 per day by end of April. However the 100,000 includes AntiBody Tests which while very important does not fully address short term AntiGen tests that say whether you have virus now particularly for healthcare workers. Such shortages are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. There is an acknowledgement that we need more AntiGen tests but it is unclear when there will be enough to help NHS workers and the care of UK patients. What is worse that the number of test kits that will be needed by patients over the next few weeks will increase further reducing the number of test kits available to test NHS workers and carers. The UK government will now use large and small private firms to ramp up public testing.
  • UK infection rates and hospital admissions with virus continue to rise. Deaths numbers have jumped up. The UK is still tracking the death numbers France has had. We are a few weeks behind France timeline of the pandemic. France has so far had more than 4000 deaths from the virus.
  • Matt Hancock UK Government Health Secretary said on BBC Question Time tonight that he called GlaxoSmithKline GSK two weeks ago to ask to use their expertise to increase testing in UK. He and the government should have been asking and indeed instructing GSK at the beginning of February at the latest to use their testing capability. If the UK government had made several such calls we would now have the capability to do 100,000 tests per day today not at end of April. We would have more healthcare carers and key workers available to work. Together with lack of coordination on personal protective equipment the UK government has failed to react quick enough when it was clear from China building new hospitals what the UK was going to face later in the year. The proximate cause of the lack of testing and PPE is the fact the UK government did not react quick enough or it had the wrong pandemic risk management strategy. The UK government is promising the world in future but we need the future now. Its the failure to coordinate more rapid action that is their failing. British industry can supply everything we need when we need it but the government is not leading the way.

1st April 2020 AntiGen Testing In UK For Coronavirus Is Now A Farce!

If the truth is that we do not have enough raw materials to make AntiGen test kits to identify whether someone has the virus then so be it. However UK government secretaries of state ministers and even medical officers advising the UK government are making public statements that conflict with each other. The mixed messages are farcical. Tell us what the truth is and why testing is not higher. Explain exactly what will do to make sure there will be more testing and when instead of general commitments to improve testing by mid to end April:

  • One minute we do not have enough chemicals to make test kits then chemical manufacturers in UK say they can make the chemicals easily.
  • Next minute Michael Gove says we have a shortage of test kits the next the UK business minister says the UK does have enough test kits and we should be testing medical staff and carers.
  • Next minute we have enough test kits but do not have enough test laboratories. Incomprehensibly we hear individual hospital labs could have testing capacity but are not testing for COVID19. Private test labs say they have capacity to test 100,000 people per day for COVID19. If there is capacity to spare to test more why are we not testing more?
  • We have the capability to build new hospitals and ventilators within days but within weeks we still cannot pull every business necessary together to manufacture test kits and test people at 50,000 plus levels. This is a failure of UK government. Not only does it mean more people will die in the UK but it means more businesses will die cause the lockdown will be longer and more severe on UK economy. A Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England said on Peston ITV that AntiGen testing to see if you have the virus was a side issue. That is the problem right there in that the top medical advisers cannot see that it is NOT a side issue. It suggests the UK has the wrong focus for its coronavirus risk management strategy.
  • The lack of test kits and testing in labs is either incompetence on the part of chief medical advisers and government or a failure of covid19 risk management strategy. There is a suggestion from the comments of both that they are focusing too much on AntiBody testing instead of ensuring that there are enough AntiGen testing. The former is important but not at the expense of enough AntiGen testing of at least healthcare workers and other key workers.

If we have enough test materials test kits and test labs then get medical profession and carers tested and stop talking about increasing testing! The government cannot magic up something out of fresh air. If the stuff needed for more testing is in the UK but the UK government is not managing resources to make sure more AntiGen testing is done then they can very much be blamed.

Chemical manufacturers and test laboratories say essentially that more than 100,000 people could be tested every day in UK so why are we not testing more than 100,000 people per day.

AntiBody testing will be important in future but journalists must not let both the UK government and chief medical advisers off the hook today at daily briefing. Do not let AntiBody testing distract you from getting to the bottom of why AntiGen testing is not 100,000 per day.

  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus Rise By Largest Daily Amount By 563 To 2352.
  • 10,000 tests completed in last 24 hours in UK
  • 1 in 4 healthcare workers in UK are not working when many could be if they had access to AntiGen testing.

UK government management of the crisis appears to be faltering. Journalists at UK daily briefings are asking too many questions and not enough quality questions. They are also failing UK citizens too.

UK government ministers talk about how millions of PPE is being sent out and PPE hotline. Yet many reports of lack of PPE by healthcare representatives and unions. There is a disconnect between the words of the government and the words of the people on the healthcare and carer frontline:

  • Testing for those who may have virus now is lacking. Committing to reach 25,000 per day testing is not the same as actually testing 25000 people per day. Government ministers at daily briefings are too often hiding behind medical experts when answering questions on the lack of testing for people who may have virus now. Government ministers should be explaining how they are bringing businesses together to make sure gaps in testing and PPE are filled.
  • Personal protective equipment provision including distribution is lacking
  • UK businesses are working well together but UK government protection from economic impact provision is lacking. Words and policies are coming easier than actual material support for businesses.
  • Business rates relief and grants are being provided from today. However actual cash is yet to filter down to businesses. Local councils have the money so should be sending billions of pounds out now. Do they have enough staff to ensure that grants will be paid like now?
  • UK High Street Banks should be supporting businesses with interruption loan scheme to good businesses. However the definition of a good business being used by banks appears to be restricting availability of loans to businesses in practice. The impression from the UK government has been that you will get a loan from your bank if you need one not if you do not need one!

31st March 2020 UK Deaths From Coronavirus Jump By Biggest Amount Of 381 Taking Total Number Of Deaths To 1789 For UK

Some people are dying outside hospitals that have not been tested for coronavirus but have shown coronavirus symptoms. They have been included in official statistics for UK coronavirus deaths. Some sceptics are suggesting that number of deaths from coronavirus have been inflated unnecessarily but this is suggesting there is a conspiracy when there is not one. We should not entertain conspiracy theorys and instead focus on helping people survive.

It is more important to ask why people who die of coronavirus symptoms outside hospitals have not been admitted to hospitals before they died? Could they have survived if they had been admitted to hospital and if they could why were they not in hospital when they died?

The numbers that die outside hospital are very low and not significant statistically however that is not to suggest the pain of such victims and their family is any less.

  • New ventilators manufactured in UK will start to roll off production line next week.
  • Newly redesigned and UK manufactured Continuous Positive Airway Pressure CPAP machine that is less intrusive than ventilators and can reduce demand for ventilators will be available next week also.
  • Anti malarial drugs that may reduce severity of COVID19 symptoms and increase survival rates are being tested to see if they work well enough to prove a useful treatment.
  • Military aircraft is being used to distribute medical equipment and help with rapid patient care across the UK.
  • NHS needs whole of UK to comply with stay at home policy to reduce spread of virus and reduce pressure on NHS to save lives. Less social contact reduces opportunities to transmit virus from person to person.
  • NHS testing is still not high enough and that is partly due to lack of chemicals within the test kit to manufacture enough test kits to meet demand in UK NHS healthcare workers never mind wider population.
  • Only antigen testing less than 13000 people per day in the UK due to lack of test kits. Testing 25000 per day not likely until mid to late April. Available test kits are being focused on critically ill in hospitals and some clinical care workers. Medical and NHS advisers to UK government should not be talking in terms of green shoots of recovery based on testing figures when the UK does not have enough test kits to test everyone who thinks they have the virus. Lower cases stats are irrelevant until everyone who needs testing can be tested.
  • Too early to say for certain that the NHS can cope with demand even through peak infection period. Signs that the UK is flattening the curve but stay at home is only way UK will manage. UK still has headroom to cope with anticipated surge in demand for critical care beds with ventilator equipment.
  • UK has always had sufficient personal protective equipment PPE stock within the country. However the stock has not always reached the people who need it. UK government is therefore developing new distribution pipeline to make sure that the right PPE is in the right hands.
  • End of life guidance has been issued to take account of risk of people dying at home with COVID19.
  • Number of deaths in UK will continue to rise for weeks to come. There are some indications that the rate of infection is plateauing but not reducing yet. Number of deaths will no start falling until number of infections fall and there will be a delay of weeks after infections rate reduces before death rate will also fall.
  • Young people without any underlying health conditions are dying of COVID19.

30th March 2020 Twenty Thousand Former NHS Staff Have Returned To NHS To Help Cope With Coronavirus Pandemic In UK

UK Prime Ministrer Mr Johnson says the UK public appeared to be obeying the restrictions set out by government to slow the spread of the virus.

  • UK train use is down 95 percent and bus use is down 75 percent. Car use has dramatically fallen. This reduces spread of virus.
  • 8000 people are in hospital in UK with coronavirus. This is expected to get worse for next two or three weeks. Around 1000 people are being admitted to UK hospitals everyday. At the moment the UK will have enough critical care beds for all people admitted to hospital if people abide by rules to stay at home. Hospitals admissions remaining below ICU units or critical care beds is one critical element that will reduce number of deaths but people will still die if they are in critical care bed.
  • UK is following the same number of deaths trajectory as France but less than Spain and Italy. France has had more than 2600 deaths as of yesterday. The UK had 1228 total deaths as of yesterday. France is around one week ahead of the UK in terms of the virus pandemic timeline.
  • Over the past week the number of deaths has roughly doubled every three days. If the trend continues there could be another 1000 deaths by the middle of the week.
  • Deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries warned it could be up to six months before life returns to normal in the UK. It is unlikely that the old normal will return as even when the UK stops domestic transmissions it will suffer imported mini outbreaks from people coming into the UK from other countries that have not managed to control the spread. In 6 months time there will be many countries which have not controlled the spread of coronavirus COVID19.
  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus COVID19 Rise 180 to 1408.
  • If the peak infection period does come in next 2 to 3 weeks it means that the spread is going to be quicker and more deadly than initially thought. The peak period based on open schools shopping and relative open houses was forecast to arrive around end of May. The spread must have been modelled to come quicker and faster and that is why the UK government had to slam on the brakes to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. The newer stricter risk control measures for around 3 months may mean that we can recover and get back to 20000 deaths being a good outcome as described by medical experts.
  • The lack of Antigen test kits will probably cost many more lives in UK and around the world. The lack of personal protective equipment and medical equipment will cost more lives. Whether this could have been avoided seems unlikely and is for another day. However it should at least inform future crisis management and business continuity measures. The lack of antibiotics is just one example of how the world is not ready for the smallest enemies on the planet.
  • UK is working with around 20 countries around the world to bring UK residents home from abroad. It is also working with other foreign governments to keep commercial flights going to enable more people to return to UK. Some foreign airports have been closed and some areas restrict travel to the foreign airport trapping UK residents in foreign countries. Advice to UK residents is too book ticket home by whatever means is open to them via commercial companies if possible and should not wait as the options to return to UK are closing. 75 million pounds package is being put together to bring more UK residents home quicker.

29th March 2020 Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the government was now testing 10000 people a day and was on track to test 25000 by mid April 

Antigen testing to see if you have coronavirus COVID19 is crucial to find out if you have the virus now and can transmit the virus to other people. This is particularly important for key workers so they can return to work asap.

Antibody testing is crucial to find out if you have had the virus and likely to have immunity from getting the virus again. It is particularly crucial in the evaluation of the level of herd immunity the UK has. If x percent of people have had the virus then the remaining y percent are protected and society can return to normality. This testing is important for everyone in the country.

However it is not clear yet how long immunity lasts. If immunity is just a few months as opposed to a year plus then the effectiveness of herd immunity protection is diminished. This should not stop the UK testing people for virus antibody. Indeed it increases the need for testing and repeat testing for the next few years or at least until a vaccine is produced.

  • All parts of the UK are now on an emergency footing. This includes establishing strategic command centres across the UK to lead communities through the crisis including military personnel.
  • UK Deaths From Coronavirus COVID19 Rise By 209 To 1228
  • Number of deaths in UK will get significantly worse over next couple of weeks as was always anticipated.
  • There is ample NHS resources to cope with current needs for ventilators and critical care beds. Sadly the number of deaths will rise even though patients are on ventilators and in critical care beds receiving best medical care possible. One recent study on fatalities from virus has found that around 50 percent of the people who go onto ventilators die.
  • Whilst 80 percent of people in UK will have no to mild symptoms after contracting the virus they will be transmitting the virus to others they come into contact with.
  • First frontline doctor a surgeon working in Leicester working on coronavirus pandemic care has died.
  • Lockdowm measures will be reviewed at Easter. Lockdown measures are expected to push down number of infections and number of deaths. Stricter measures may need to be adopted if current ones are not adhered to. Some restrictions can be expected for another 6 months including turning them on and off to manage the demand on NHS services. Very strict pandemic risk control measures can be expected for two to three months at least.

28th March 2020 The number of people who have died in the UK has increased by 260

The total number of deaths in the UK from the virus is 1019. 260 deaths for a 24 hour period is the highest daily rate since the start of the pandemic.

  • Germany is currently testing more than 70000 people per day. The UK is hoping to get to 10000 people per day. The World Health Orgnaisation WHO says the way to control the virus is to test test and test. 399 people have died in Germany whilst 1019 have died in the UK. Current thinking is the reason Germany has had fewer deaths is down to Germanys testing regime.
  • Insolvency rules in UK are being changed to include suspension of wrongful trading rules to help businesses to keep going without directors fearing they will be prosecuted for breaching trading rules.

UK medical experts have again reminded us that 20000 deaths in the UK from the coronavirus can be expected which suggests we should be prepared for significantly higher daily deaths.

27th March 2020 Latest UK 24 Hour Deaths From Coronavirus Demonstrates That Having Access To Ventilator Is Not Automatically Going To Save You

A record high 181 deaths in the UK in last 24 hours from the coronavirus is a shocking figure. However it is shocking for other reasons than tragic loss of life. The top medical officers for the UK government recently said critical care beds were freely available at this stage of the pandemic in UK though a couple of hospitals will soon struggle to have room. This means that 181 people in the UK died in 24 hours purely because of the severity of their condition not cause of a shortage of critical care beds and ventilators.

There were indications from Italy that a very high proportion of people on ventilators were dying much to the trauma and frustration of healthcare workers in Italy. They could not figure out why people were dying so often.

Europe seems to be demonstrating that its focus on making sure there are enough ventilators is a little bit of a distraction on how deadly this coronavirus really is. You may well really need a bed and a ventilator. You may have them for weeks. However there is no guarantee that your relative good fortune is going to save your life.

This is a reminder to all that you must self isolate to save other peoples lives but potentially also to save your own.

  • A total number of 759 people have died in the UK from the coronavirus.
  • The number of deaths appears to be starting its fearsome exponential growth phase in the UK like Italy Spain and France before us.
  • The rate of infection or spread of the virus in the UK is now doubling every 3 or 4 days.
  • There is still roughly 3 weeks to peak infection period. If we do not stick to self isolation the number of deaths could easily double every 3 days. If we do stick with self isolation the peak period could be pushed into future by week or two and the number of deaths could reduce as the NHS will be more able to cope with fewer critically ill people.
  • Some hospitals in London could be overwhelmed with full critical care beds by this weekend.
  • A good outcome if we self isolate is 20000 deaths in UK according to NHS experts. If we do not self isolate it will be much higher. Around 8000 people die in the UK from seasonal flu. The coronavirus is much more easily spread and much more deadly than seasonal flu.
  • UK Prime Minister and Health Secretary both test positive with mild symptoms of coronsvirus COVID19. In addition Englands Chief Medical Officer is showing mild symptoms of COVID19. All three are now self isolating. If you are part of central government role managing the pandemic in the UK you are tested for the virus even if only showing mild symptoms. It is difficult to see why Prince Charles with mild symptoms was tested though is understandable that Prime Minister and Health Secretary have been tested. Would Prince Charles and Duchess of Cornwalls two virus test kits not have been better given to two key workers self isolating in Scotland and unable to access test kit so they could identify if they were safe to return to work. Many key workers including NHS and social care workers are currently unable to access virus test kits to see if they have the virus and can return to work if not.
  • At the start of the pandemic Italy had twice as many critical care beds than the UK. The UK is two to three weeks behind Italy in terms of the progress of the pandemic. The UK can easily hit 1000 deaths per day at the peak infection especially if we do not self isolate. Italy has had 919 deaths in last 24 hours alone. With or without a critical care bed and ventilator you can die. Self isolate and when you go outside do not mix with more than one other person unless they live with you and keep 2 metres away from them. Wash your hands!
  • In addition to 4000 bed new hospital being constructed in London there will be new hospitals in Birmingham NEC with 5000 new beds Manchester and others still to be announced.
  • 33000 hospital beds are already in place across the UK to respond to the coronavirus.
  • UK councils been told to find bed for every rough sleeper by this weekend. Many hotels are empty so this should be doable.
  • Retired police officers have been asked to return to work to help cover police officers self isolating. As many as 20 percent of police officers can be off work self isolating at any one time.
  • Fire service workers are to be trained to drive UK ambulances as and when ambulance workers self isolating are unable to work.
  • Surrey police chief constable and his emergency planning coordinating team with army military adviser filmed on BBC today sitting at table clearly not following social distancing 2 metre rule!!!

26th March 2020 The UK Still Only Testing Less Than 7000 People Per Day For Coronavirus COVID19

The UK tested 6643 people yesterday. Weeks ago the UK government said it was ramping up testing from 5000 per day to 25000 per day. However 6643 tests per day shows that it is very far from achieving its goal.

What this means in short term is that some key workers are still not able to work cause they cannot access a test. Key workers are not working who could be working. In medium term it means that the UK will take longer to get infections fatalities and economic damage under control.

The Chief Medical Officer for the UK says that problem is that 3 months ago these tests were almost unwanted but now every country in the world is clambering after the raw materials necessary to manufacture the tests needed. Supplies of the parts is insufficient to manufacture enough test kits to meet demand in UK and around the world.

It is still the case that the UKs figures on numbers of people infected are irrelevant. Official infection figures can be multiplied by between 10 and 20 to get a truer picture of potential fatalities in future. The only true figure is the number of deaths which are rising thought not as bad in Italy Spain or France. The most important people in UK that must have tests first are key workers including NHS workers.

Self employed people to receive financial aid for at least 3 months due to coronavirus. Only self employed with tax return for 2019 eligible with trading profit up to 50000 pounds eligible to benefit from the self employed support scheme. UK government to pay 80 percent of average earnings over the last 3 years for self employed. The maximum benefit will be 2500 per month in form of a non refundable grant. Scheme up and running for the beginning of June. If you are only recently self employed and do not have any accounts to evidence earning you will have to rely on benefits via the likes of Universal Credit.

  • Dyson vacuum manufacturer has been awarded contract to supply 10000 ventilators to NHS. The UK currently has access to around 11000 ventilators in hospitals across the UK.
  • Peak demand for intensive care beds in UK is anticipated in next 2 or 3 weeks. However if social isolation rules work well the peak infection period could be later.
  • Everyone in UK being asked to clap for carers from their windows at 8pm every evening to show carers support and appreciation for their services and sacrifice.

25th March 2020 Latest Academic Research and Analysis Of Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic In UK Suggests The Combination of New NHS Plans and Keeping People In Their Homes Will Bring Demand On NHS Critical Services Down To Level Hospitals Can Manage

There would be some resurgence of cases later as the UK lockdown is lifted and from imported cases but these local outbreaks could hopefully be kept at a low level through more intensive testing.

  • 463 people have now died from the cornavirus in the UK. 41 people have died in the UK from the virus in the last 24 hours.
  • 3.5 million testing kits will be kept for just key workers including health workers in the UK. The anti body test kits will identify if a person has had the coronavirus COVID19. It is thought that if you have had the virus you will have a period of immunity. If health workers have had the virus they will not need to self isolate. The UK government medical experts are currently evaluating the accuracy of the test kits and will not release any until they are confident they work well consistently.
  • Anti body testing will be essential in future to identify levels of her immunity that will enable things to improve faster in the UK.
  • From next week it is hoped the UK can increase testing for the virus from 5000 per day to 10000 per day. The UK government have talked for sometime now about ramping up testing to 25000 per day but this seems like along way off. Testing is key to control spread of virus. South Korea has been testing 40000 per day for a number of weeks now. South Korea has had 126 deaths in total from virus. The UK has had 433 deaths prior to todays death toll announcement for last 24 hours.
  • In just 24 hours after the call for 250000 NHS Volunteer Responders 405000 have signed up to be a Responder.
  • Critical care beds demand will increase but at the moment the level of demand is not any higher than would be normal at this time of the year in any winter.

Prime Minister says say that a package of help will be announced tomorrow by Chancellor to help 5 million self employed people in UK who have lost income.

24th March 2020 Testing for Coronavirus in UK is Still Only Around 5000 Per Day Where As Other Countries Have Ramped Up Testing Within Days

World Health Organisation WHO has stated that the key to controlling the spread of the coronavirus is test test and test.

If you are short of personal protective equipment PPE you must call government PPE supply hotline to enable the UK government to know exactly where the shortages of PPE are.

The PPE supply distribution helpline can answer PPE calls and emails 24/7 via the supply disruption helpline on 0800 915 9964 or email supplydisruptionservice@nhsbsa.nhs.uk to help with queries. Emails will be answered within one hour. NHS Trusts should raise non-PPE orders with NHS Supply Chain in the usual way.

BusinessRiskTV

The helpline is for organisations caring for people in some way not personal purchases.

  • 87 people died in the UK over the last 24 hours. This is the biggest 24 hour increase in number of deaths in the UK from the coronavirus. The total number of deaths in the UK has increased to 422.
  • Officially 8077 people have been infected with the coronavirus but the real figure is in the tens of thousands perhaps hundreds of thousands. Due to a lack of testing in the UK we do not know for certain.
  • 35000 extra professionals brought into NHS including 2660 doctors and over 6000 nurses who had retired. Student medics and nurses will join the frontline in hospitals.
  • A new temporary hospital The Nightingale Hospital is to be created next week in ExCel Centre London with two wards of 2000 people each ward. 4000 people will be treated in the new hospital when it is open which has been quickly assembled in an exhibition hall.
  • Police in UK will be able to fine people from £30 up to an unlimited amount if people do not abide to new rules surrounding self isolation and not gathering in groups of more than two people
  • All prison visits will cease to try to stop spread to prisons from general public

UK Government calls for 250000 NHS Volunteer Responders to help through coronavirus pandemic. Duties will include delivering food and medicine to people self isolating at home for months. CLICK HERE to find out how to become NHS Volunteer Responder.

23rd March 2020 The total number of deaths in UK from the coronavirus has increased to 335

A total of 335 people have died in UK from the virus in total. This is a UK increase of 54 since yesterday. More than 6000 people have officially been tested and given positive result having the coronavirus. However this figure could be 10 or even 20 times higher.

It is estimated that around 60000 to 120000 people could be infected in the UK. Official infection numbers are irrelevant as the UK does not have the capacity to test suspected victims unless they are admitted to hospital and excludes all those who think they have it and are hopefully self isolating at home.

  • UK Foreign Office advises all UK citizens to return back to UK now. The option to return may not be there in future due to global travel restrictions. It is estimated that there are currently around one million citizens abroad.
  • UK government announces stricter lockdown and even tighter restrictions on businesses and people due to concerns that many people not complying with advice including the following. Everyone must stay at home and not go out unless.
    • Shopping for food and only do this when absolutely necessary
    • Exercising on own or with family living with you such as running cycling
    • Going for medical purpose or caring for vulnerable person
    • Travelling to work and only travel to work if absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home
    • Do not meet friends
    • Do not meet family members who do not live in your home
  • Fines will be issued if you do not follow the rules by UK police
  • Closing all shops not providing essentials like food and medicine
  • Police will stop the gathering in public of more than two people
  • Non Essential travel has been banned already and will be enforced

Although the UK has ambitions to test 25000 people per day it is only testing between 5000 to 10000 probably closer to the 5000 than the 10000.

The UK is currently following the same number of deaths track as Italy has already passed through and is about two weeks behind. Over 6000 people have to date died in Italy and have ongoing daily death rates of well above 600 per day.

BusinessRiskTV

Essentially the UK is currently heading for over 6000 deaths and ongoing deaths of more than 600 per day in two weeks time if the UKs coronavirus pandemic risk management control measures do not work. If people do what they are told and the UK can produce more ventilators then we may avoid this level of pain but at the moment there is no reason to suggest we will avoid such level of fatalities. This is why stricter measures have been brought in now. It is to protect us and to try to recover quicker but this will last beyond the summer and perhaps into 2021. Prepare for the long haul.

22nd March 2020 National Trust Will Now Close All Parks To Public After Weekend When Parks Were Unsafely Busy

400 Britons trapped in Peru will be repatriated next week.

  • Number of people who have died in the UK due to coronavirus rises to 281 which is an increase of 47. The number of infected people rises to 5683.
  • UK Prime Minister warns people in UK to stay 2 metres apart even when outside in open spaces like beaches parks and other open public spaces.
  • Government creating network of hubs to deliver essential supplies to 1.5 million clinically vulnerable people at high risk who have been told to strictly self isolate for 12 weeks including not leaving the house at all. Food parcels and medicines will be delivered by armed forces.
  • UK two to three weeks behind Italy in terms of timeline of epidemic.
  • Only 12 percent of available ventilator beds are currently filled so at the moment the UK has enough beds to cope with current critical infection levels. In future the UK will need many more beds than we currently have.

Further measures to restrict people coming together maybe introduced at later date but for now relying on people controlling their own exposure to protect others.

21st March 2020 Plenty Of Food To Go Around In Shops in UK and Billion Pounds Of Food Stock Piled In UK Homes

NHS workers will not be able to get the food they need when they need it if panic buying continues. NHS England Director says UK panic buyers should be ashamed of themselves. Do not go to the shops and buy more than you normally need and there will be no shortages at any time.

Supermarkets are providing dedicated shopping times for elderly and NHS workers to try to ensure vulnerable people and essential workers can access the supplies they need.

BusinessRiskTV

It is not the supply of food that is the problem. Indeed 50 percent more food is being supplied to UK shops. The problem is a spike in demand as people panic buy for no rational reason in the light of more than enough food to go round.

It is hoped that people will calm down their shopping habits and gradually panic buying will dissipate. There has been dramatic changes in the UK but other countries are not having the same shortages of food. Be responsible when you shop. Think of NHS workers.

  • The total number of people who have died in the UK has increased to 233

Private hospitals to supply 8000 beds and 20000 staff to NHS and around 1200 ventilators to boost extra capacity to cope with coronavirus. Despite such a vast increase in resources it is still felt that the UK will need more to reduce number of deaths in UK from coronavirus.

Italy with excellent healthcare system is on a similar perhaps even better path than UK at the moment but are ahead in terms of the epidemic unfolding timeline. It is likely that Italy will exceed 1000 deaths per day next week for a few weeks.

BusinessRiskTV

UK Prime Minister warns the NHS could be overwhelmed if people do not self isolate to slow the accelerating spread of coronavirus and urged people not to visit loved ones on Mothers Day.

NHS is to write to 1.5 million at high risk people in UK. They will be told not to leave home for 12 weeks to protect themselves. They will be advised not to attend any gatherings of friends or families and not to go shopping out on leisure or travel anywhere. The Armed Forces will help ensure essential items like groceries can be delivered to people who are in at high risk categories.

20th March 2020 UK Government Asks 65000 Retired Doctors and Nurses To Return To NHS To Help Cope With Surge In Coronavirus Cases

The lack of testing in the UK is hiding the coming tsunami of deaths in the UK. Deaths are expected to double every couple of days for weeks. London is expected to be the epicentre of the epidemic in the UK.

177 people have died in the UK from the coronavirus COVID19.

BusinessRiskTV

Around May June the number of people dying is expected to peak if the coronavirus pandemic risk management measures work. 20000 total deaths in the UK is estimated as a good outcome by the UKs chief technical officer overseeing the pandemic in the UK.

  • All bars restaurants leisure centres gyms cafes theatres and clubs in UK told to close from today. Providing takaway service is permitted.
  • Children should also self isolate which means okay to mix with close family but not to mix with other children or adults too closely. Social distancing means they can be 2 metres away but should not be in groups. Social connections and unnecessary social contact should be reduced between children as well as adults. Children should exercise but not in groups of friends.
  • Farnborough Airshow this summer cancelled
  • Snooker World Championship postponed
  • A hospital in north London Northwick Park NHS hospital temporarily had to turn away new cases of the coronavirus as it was already full

UK Chancellor announces new measures to help people and businesses in the UK:

  • UK Government will pay up to 80 percent of every wage of every business in UK back dated to 1st March up to a maximum of 2500 pounds per month if people are not made redundant. Employers to claim non refundable grant from HMRC. This will last for 3 months initially but it will be extended if required.
  • Business Interruption Loans previously announced now interest free for 12 months not 6 months
  • Next quarter VAT payments deferred to end of June
  • Universal Credit to be increased by 1000 pounds over 12 month period
  • Self Assessment Tax payments deferred
  • Renters to be provided with access to financial support from government to help pay rent

If people self isolate we can save lives in UK. We need to keep people apart for months perhaps a year. If people in the UK do not conform to isolation measures then people will die because the NHS is overloaded and cannot give everyone the emergency care they need. NHS staff will have to choose who will live and who will probably die.

19th March 2020 Bank of England BoE Cuts UK Interest Rate To Record Low Of 0.1 Percent

The BoE will also buy 200 billion pounds worth more of UK bonds. The coronavirus pandemic will result in close the three quarters of a trillion pounds worth of UK bonds by BoE in total.

  • Church Of England limits number of people allowed to attend a wedding to a maximum of 5 people per wedding
  • London is around 3 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK in terms of cycle of the epidemic
  • There are suggestions that an old malaria symptoms control drug has been effective in the control of COVID19. Other drugs used to treat other illnesses and diseases are being heavily tested to see if they have a beneficial impact on controlling COVID19. A brand new vaccine is unlikely to be ready for 12 months so if they can use a drug already tested and approved by regulatory authorities then this could be a quick temporary fix until a vaccine is available.
  • UK is still only testing around 5000 to 10000 people a day and they are people who have been admitted to hospital. People self isolating at home cause they think they have the virus are not being tested. Even NHS workers who think they may have virus are still not being tested as a matter of course never mind members of the public. South Korea is and has been testing 40000 people per day. The UK aspires to get to 25000 tests per day. It is not clear when the UK will in reality hit 25000 tests per day.
  • UK Prime Minister appeals to employers to stand by employees and not make them redundant and then the UK government will stand by employers. More details will follow on how businesses in the UK will be supported.
  • UK Prime Minister reckons in around 12 weeks the UK will turn the tide if we follow the coronavirus pandemic risk management measures. He may have to bring in stricter quarantines of people in certain places of the UK if necessary. What turning the tide looks like for the Prime Minister is getting on top of epidemic. However he perhaps gave a little too much hope than time will demonstrate. Not sure his chief medical advisers are willing to give the same timeline to the people of the UK.
  • There will be no shopping problems if people act responsibly when shopping. Regrettably too many people in the UK are panic buying and it is the panic buying that is creating shortages not the coronavirus outbreak.
  • It is hoped that there will be some immunity for an unknown period after a person has been infected which will help build herd immunity and hopefully slow spread of virus. An anti body test kit is to shortly be procured by NHS to test to see if you have had virus which will allow medical experts identify when we have reached herd immunity levels.

We are still at the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic in the UK. The worst is not expected until around the end of May. 144 people have now died in the UK due to coronavirus COVID19 infection. This is an increase of 40 in 24 hour period. Within the next week or so we can expect the daily deaths to break into three figures per day.

Officially 3269 people in the UK have the coronavirus but due to lack of testing this is vastly under reported. If you only test people ill enough to be admitted to hospital when thousands of people do not know they have it or suspect they have it but can not get access to test the UK is not entering the real world of statistical world of figures of infection rates.

Well in excess of 55000 people currently have the coronavirus according to reputable sources in medical field. If the numbers of deaths do not spike dramatically then this will be overestimation. However death numbers are going to spike. Maybe that will persuade you to stay at home!? Probably not.

Legal enforcement to stay at home is required now in some parts of the UK. Trouble is many will not have the money and we can not put them in jail because we may have to let people out of jail that are already in jail due to coronavirus outbreak in some UK prisons. Those that do have the money should be forced to pay fines in the thousands. How much is your mother father or grand parents life worth? They are building temporary mortuaries in London today for gods sake as our existing mortuaries could overflow!

18th March 2020 All UK Schools Across UK To Close By Friday This Week Until Further Notice

Key workers children and vulnerable children will be able to enter school grounds to ensure that children are protected and essential workers who are parents can continue to go to work including NHS workers. Schools will receive finance to cover cost of free school meals and the like.

  • Nurseries and private schools will also be closed.
  • Children should not be left with older people as the children will unlikely be harmed by virus but they may infect older people who are more likely to die from infection of virus.
  • Schools will be closed until further notice which means that exams will not take place in May and June this year. It is not known yet how the UK government will facilitate pupils achieving the qualifications they need to progress their lives and careers.

The number of deaths in the UK from coronavirus can be expected to double repeatedly every few days for weeks. Currently 104 people have died in the UK.

The UK may go further into lockdown with legally enforced social isolation if people do not conform to the request to socially isolate. The more people do not conform advice to self isolate the more likely more people will die in the UK.

The voluntary or enforced social isolation will not be lifted for months and we will not be able to lift social isolation until we know how many people have had the virus or in other words until we know a level of herd immunity has been reached. Should we lift the coronavirus pandemic risk management control measures before we know a safe level of herd immunity has been reached the virus will simply reignite and spread rapidly again and we will be back to square one ie hundreds of thousands of deaths in UK.

New legislation will be introduced to prevent private UK landlords evicting people for 3 months at least for non payment of rent. Many people are going to be made unemployed in UK due to virus and many will struggle to pay rent. Details of how this will work will be contained in new legislation.

18th March 2020 Pound Falls To Lowest Level Against The Dollar In 34 Years

Where businesses are able to keep working they must explore all opportunities for growth especially in a period where a UK recession is now guaranteed and global recession likely.

Part of survival and prosperity plan for UK business should still be to export more particularly to USA. With such a low value of the pound this is an opportunity not be be missed if you can possibly avoid it.

18th March 2020 104 Deaths From Coronavirus In UK

What is the biggest jump in the number of daily deaths from 69 is in fact a comparatively low increase in daily deaths compared to the number of daily deaths the UK can expect when the peak infection period reaches its highest level. The peak infection period is forecast to be around the end of May 2020.

It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. When it gets better it will not be over as repeated minor outbreaks can be anticipated perhaps for years after we think we have it under control.

Three digit daily deaths in the UK can be anticipated for weeks upon weeks. The UK governments chief technical adviser has already indicated that the best we can expect in the UK is 20000 deaths in total. If new coronavirus pandemic risk management measures do not work we can expect 250000 deaths.

17th March 2020 UK Government Financial Measures To Protect UK Economy

UK government will do whatever it takes to support the UK economy over the coming months of the coronavirus pandemic economic emergency.

  • £30 billion package announced recently will now be built upon
  • UK government package will be in region of £300 billion.
  • If £330 billion is not enough cash more will be provided.
  • New lending facility to be created
  • New business interruption scheme with no interest due for first 6 months
  • Help for cash flow and fixed costs for all businesses
  • Those businesses with pandemic insurance should be able to claim as government as agreed so with insurers
  • No business rates due this year regardless of rateable value for retail and leisure businesses. Plus cash grant up to £25000 non refundable per retail leisure and hospitality business
  • Mortgage lenders will now offer 3 month mortgage holiday if borrowers ask for one.

The UK government will come back with further measures to be announced in future as the coronavirus pandemic emergency unfolds.

17th March 2020 Chief Scientific Adviser Has Advised Today That If The UK Can Keep The Number Of Deaths From Coronavirus COVID19 Below 20000 Then This Would Be A Good Outcome

He is not saying this is a good thing. It would be horrible. However given where we are now and assuming everyone in UK conforms to coronavirus pandemic risk management measures introduced by the UK government then 20000 deaths would be realistic.

If people in UK dismiss coronavirus pandemic risk management measures then 250000 deaths in UK can be expected.

69 people have so far died in UK due to the coronavirus.

17th March 2020 Pre Major Coronavirus Outbreak The UK Economy Was Buzzing Hot

UK employment was at another record high in the three months to January. Wage growth also accelerated during the period increasing to 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent in December way ahead of inflation and therefore living standards were continuing to rise.

It is now inevitable that employment in UK will now fall and unemployment will jump. For how long is uncertain but China took around 6 months to control the coronavirus epidemic and they locked everybody up including physically arresting whole families for not complying with lockdown policy.

The UK has many people who say it is their right to continue enjoying life as they had done precoronavirus which means that the UK will take a lot more than 6 months to control the coronavirus. Indeed it may not be brought under control until the UK police and army patrol the streets like in France Spain and Italy forcing selfishly arrogant dangerous people into lockdown. Maybe people will wise up and act responsibly without legal lockdown but I would not hold my breath from my discussions with mainly old people!

  • Foreign Office advises against travel anywhere outside UK banned for 30 days
  • Number of coronavirus cases in UK has risen to 1950 officially but is is widely estimated that the real figure is 50000 due to the policy to stop testing except for people admitted to hospital.
  • Non urgent operations in NHS England to stop from 15th April to free up beds to cope with surge of infections requiring medical care.
  • NHS Scotland on emergency footing for 3 months
  • Euro 2020 suspended until 2021
  • All Church Of England formal services have been suspended until further notice. Churches are not closed but formal services will cease.

The reason the UK government has brought in pandemic risk management guidance that is very restrictive is that risk modelling suggested that if we do not do something drastic 250000 people were going to die. If you espouse not complying with coronavirus pandemic risk management measures you are part of the problem not the solution.

16th March 2020 It Is Clear That Part Of Coronavirus Pandemic Risk Management In UK Is Herd Immunity

The chief medial experts in England and Scotland have both agreed in British media over last few days that herd immunity is part of what will manage the risks of total deaths in the UK.

Politicians in England and Scotland do not want to accept that pursuing herd immunity strategy. They fear they will be seen pursuing a policy that includes deliberately infecting members of the public. However the people of the UK need to wake up and smell the coffee. Every coronavirus risk management tool needs to be adopted and how it may look to politicians and members of the public is less important than what is going to bring this crisis under control.

What is perhaps more worrying is that it is not guaranteed that enough immunity from reinfection is produced for enough people to make herd immunity work well. Regrettably we will not know this until it does or does not work.

16th March 2020 Latest Update On Pandemic Risk Management for UK From UK government

Probably for the next few months:

  • Everyone in UK must stop all social contact and eliminate unnecessary travel. This includes pubs restaurants clubs and cinemas. It is not a legal requirement but is an expected social duty expected of all UK citizens to try to stop the rate of spread of coronavirus
  • Start working from home if you can
  • If you live alone self isolate for 7 days if you have new persistent cough or high temperature. If you live with others and have these symptoms the whole household must self isolate for 14 days
  • If you have new persistent cough or high temperature you should not contact NHS including 111 helpline as they are struggling to meet demand. You just self isolate as above cause even if you get through to NHS professional you are not going to be tested for the virus. You will just be told to self isolate. Should your symptoms deteriorate then of course contact 111 for advice but most people should be able to manage virus without contacting medical services.
  • Only use any NHS services when you really need to to reduce the demand.

People can die of the coronavirus. However people can also die as there may not be enough equipment or medical personnel to care for those who are sick with coronavirus. If the spread of the disease can be slowed then the NHS resources maybe enough to cope with the coming infections. Lives will be saved if we follow pandemic risk management guidance from UK government.

The reason the UK government has stopped testing for the virus is not because they think it is a bad idea. It is because the UK does not have the capacity to test everyone who needs a test. The UK government is hoping they can create a test that identifies if you have had the virus to inform research and future care.

53 people have so far died in the UK due to the coronavirus. This is up from 35 yesterday. However three figure deaths per day in the UK should be expected for weeks if the UK cannot deflect the infection rate.

After the UK government annoucement of the change in coronavirus pandemic risk management measures it was reported widely in the media that if people do not voluntarily change their daily habits within three weeks new laws will force people to comply. We are being treated like adults for the moment. Hopefully people will behave like adults.

16th March 2020 World Health Organisation WHO says it has a simple message to all governments around the world – TEST TEST TEST

Yet many governments including the UK are not testing people who are suspected of having symptoms. People who contact their doctor 111 or other health professionals are regularly being told that the NHS is not testing everyone who could have virus.

People are being told to self isolate which is good but WHO make clear that countries including the UK will not get the coronavirus pandemic under control unless the UK TESTS TESTS AND TESTS. Only people who are ill enough to be submitted to hospital are being tested in the UK according to significant anecdotal evidence.

People who self isolate at home are only told to do this for one week. However WHO have also advised that people who do have the virus will continue to transmit the virus to others for up to 2 weeks after they have recovered. If the UK government says it is abandoning testing for people other than those submitted to hospital then they need to people self isolating with symptoms to self isolate for at least 3 weeks to reduce the risk they do not infect others after they have recovered from virus.

WHO are suggesting that the UK is making critical error in pandemic risk management in UK. In addition the UK government needs to greatly expand its advice from just wash your hands and stay at home if you have any symptoms.

In addition people should be aware that the statistics produced by the UK government on coronavirus cases are now meaningless. If the UK is not testing everyone suspected as having the virus then government figures on anything other than number of deaths are pointless.

#CoronavirusUK #COVID19uk #PandemicRiskManagement

13th March 2020 UK Business Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Risk Management

Yesterday the UK government chief medical experts said that the peak of the pandemic impact in UK is currently estimated to hit at the end of May 2020. It will not be a specific date but instead have a window over about two months. This suggests the peak will hit for all of May and June.

Current UK pandemic risk controls and future pandemic controls are hoped to push this window into June and July. Whenever it hits peak infection older people will be asked to self isolate for at least one month probably two months whether they have the virus or not.

It is likely that the UK government will also close many businesses and public functions during the peak infection one to two month period. If your business is not closed down by UK government legal instruction it is likely to be severely affected during the peak two month period.

In other words in terms of the UK coronavirus economic storm we are currently not even experiencing light winds. This is the calm before the storm. To be prepared for the coming storm you must activate your business continuity management plan now not the summer.

Over 200 people have died in Italy over last 24 hours.

BusinessRiskTV

If the UK governments 4 point coronavirus risk control plan fails to deflect the coronavirus storm impact the UK will also suffer daily deaths of 200 plus for a period of weeks. Italy has one of the best healthcare services in Europe. It is not inferior to the UK in any significant way.

What you must know today to do more business in the UK. Where are business threats and opportunities coming from in the UK? When can you act to protect and grow your business better? Who is managing business risks well or poorly? Why are your competitors doing better or worse in the UK? How can your business improve its management of business risks?

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13th March 2020 UK Business Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Risk Management

Yesterday the UK government chief medical experts said that the peak of the pandemic impact in UK is currently estimated to hit at the end of May 2020. It will not be a specific date but instead have a window over about two months. This suggests the peak will hit for all of May and June.

Current UK pandemic risk controls and future pandemic controls are hoped to push this window into June and July. Whenever it hits peak infection older people will be asked to self isolate for at least one month probably two months whether they have the virus or not.

It is likely that the UK government will also close many businesses and public functions during the peak infection one to two month period. If your business is not closed down by UK government legal instruction it is likely to be severely affected during the peak two month period.

In other words in terms of the UK coronavirus economic storm we are currently not even experiencing light winds. This is the calm before the storm. To be prepared for the coming storm you must activate your business continuity management plan now not the summer.

Over 200 people have died in Italy over last 24 hours.

BusinessRiskTV

If the UK governments 4 point coronavirus risk control plan fails to deflect the coronavirus storm impact the UK will also suffer daily deaths of 200 plus for a period of weeks. Italy has one of the best healthcare services in Europe. It is not inferior to the UK in any significant way.

11th March 2020 UK Budget 2020

UK budget to deliver change that was voted for at the December 2019 General Election. In addition up to a fifth of the UK working population could be off work due to the coronavirus on a temporary basis.

£30 billion fiscal stimulus to be made available to people and businesses to get the UK through economic consequences of coronavirus. The UK government budget plans including emergency coronavirus measures are forecast to increase UK economic growth. The budget is still within fiscal rules.

Summary of UK Budget 2020:

  • Security and support for people off work due to coronavirus to be provided. Statutory Sick Pay to be provided from day 1 including people who self isolate including self employed;
  • NHS to get whatever additional financial support it needs whether it is millions or billion of pounds;
  • Minimum income floor on Universal Credit to be removed
  • Relaxing need to attend job centre to receive benefit;
  • £500 million hardship fund will be provided to local councils to help vulnerable people
  • Cost of statutory sick pay for 14 day to be refunded to SMEs less than 250 employees
  • Loans to made available to businesses
  • Shops leisure and retail businesses with rateable value of less than £50000 will not have to pay business rates for next 12 months
  • £3000 cash grant made available to small business rate tax payers
  • 6.2 percent increase in minimum wage from April 2020 around £1000 per annum increase
  • National Insurance Threshold to increase to £9500 from April 2020
  • No VAT on women’s sanitory products
  • Business rate discount for UK pubs to be £5000 for 12 months not £1000
  • Planned rise on beer duty stopped
  • Fuel duty frozen until April 2021
  • £200 million fund for life sciences.
  • Entrepreneurs Relief will not be fully abolished but reduce lifetime limit from £10 million to £1 million
  • Research and Development expenditure credit increased from 12% to 13%
  • New £800 million Blue Skies Funding Policy Fund to boost scientific research
  • Increasing levy on gas powered energy
  • Red diesel tax relief abolished for most sectors of economy
  • £120 million fund to repair flood defences damaged in UK
  • Boost to fund to increase flood defences £5.2 billion
  • Plastic packaging tax to be introduced April 2022
  • £600 billion to be invested in UK infrastructure over course of parliament including broadband housing road and rail improvements
  • Directly elected mayor for West Yorkshire
  • Pothole fund £2.5 billion
  • Moving 22000 civil servants out of London
  • £27 billion on new roads
  • £1.5 billion to improve Further Education buildings
  • Reading digital book VAT tax to be abolished
  • New directly elected Mayor for West Yorkshire
  • Affordable Homes Programme to get an extra £12 billion
  • High rise building safety fund of £1 billion to manage risk from private sector buildings from combustible cladding
  • Stamp duty charge at 2% for non UK residents to be introduced
  • NHS to get an extra £6 billion in this parliament
  • Corporation tax remain 19%

Massive injection of cash to cope with coronavirus creates some immediate beneficiaries but most will come over course of parliament.

11th March 2020 Bank of England BoE Announced Emergency Pandemic Risk Management Control Measures To Protect UK Economy From Coronavirus Economic Slowdown

BoE risk control measures are ahead of the planned BoE review of policy. UK economic epidemic risk control measures include:

  • O.5 percent interest rate cut to just 0.25 percent.
  • 100 billion pounds funding scheme to help maintain bank and building society lending to small and medium sized businesses.
  • Changes to banking control in UK that will allow an additional 200 billion pounds to be lent to UK consumers and businesses.

The UK Chancellor will announce his first budget later today which is also expected to help protect UK economy from effects of COVID19 outbreak that could easily last until the budget in 2021.

5th March 2020 Cut In UK Interest Rates Imminent

The spread of the coronavirus COVID19 across the world even if the UK escapes epidemic means the Bank of England will have to cut interest rate to try to protect the UK economy. However the UK will not escape a COVID19 epidemic across the UK.

The cut of demand for products and services in the UK will mean that many UK businesses are going to struggle financially to weather the coronavirus outbreak.

20th February 2020 UK Manufacturing Orders At 6 Month High In February

According to Confederation Of British Industry CBI British manufacturing orders are rising. Furthermore expectations for growth in manufacturing output picked up to highest level in a year.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends survey shows early signs of a turnaround in manufacturing activity in UK.

20th February 2020 UK Retail Sales Jump In January

According to the Office for National Statistic ONS figures UK retail sales were at their highest in January for 10 months.

The ONS said clothing sales significantly improved. Although fashion retailers had a tough 2019 the new year offers much better opportunities with UK employment increasing to all time record.

19th February 2020 UK inflation Rate Jumped To 1.8 Percent January

The jump up towards the previous Bank of England BoE target of 2 percent means that there is no chance of imminent cut in UK interest rate.

Low UK inflation rate was previously the only justification of an interest rate cut. All other UK economic indicators suggested a rate rise and this is the most likely next direction for UK interest rates.

In addition the UK needs to prepare for next financial crisis and that includes pushing up interest rate to provide room for cut when needed if an increase now aligns with current UK economic environment. Higher interest rate than 0.75 percent is justified based on factors like strong job market and rising house prices.

18th February 2020 UK Employment Levels Jumped To Record All Time High in December

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the number of people in work increased 32.93 million in the quarter to December. The number of people in work in the UK reached an all time time.

Although there is a record high number of people working in the UK there are 810000 job vacancies in the UK and rising. UK earnings continue to rise faster than the cost of living in UK. Excluding bonuses earnings grew at annual rate of 3.2 percent. UK inflation is 1.3 percent. However it is likely that the lack of supply in jobs market will push up wage increases faster as demand for recruits rise. It will become harder for firms to recruit the employees they need.

17th February 2020 UK Consumer More Confident In The UK Economy In February Than They Ever Have Been

British consumers registered their highest ever consumer confidence reading with IHS Markit Household Finance Index. The index hit highest level since the index was started 11 years ago.

UK consumers are as confused by the unhelpful Bank of England about the direction of UK interest rates. Most UK economic data points to rising interest rates with the main exception of low inflation levels.

  • Record high employment levels and lowest unemployment levels since 1970s
  • Accelerating house prices
  • Consistently higher average wage rises than inflation level
  • Rising consumer confidence and rising business leader confidence
  • Much calmer political environment in UK
  • Seemingly and actual better trade relations between USA and China
  • UK growing at 1.4 percent compared to 0.9 percent in Eurozone showing that the UK has ability to grow despite Brexit transition uncertainty
  • Relatively slow growth in consumer credit
  • UK banks pumping billions of pounds into UK economy albeit unwillingly. Lloyds bank alone has paid out or will pay out money in excess of 20 billion pounds. Where is this money going? Holidays for a start with one holiday company reporting record sales in January 2020.
  • National Living Wage set to jump up in April 2020.
  • UK government set to unleash massive spending spree

If there is not a World War 3 starting via Iran and USA in which case we will all die anyway or a coronavirus pandemic then then UK is setting sail for a much more prosperous 2020 than most economic forecasters are prepared to accept given their fatalistic forecasts following Brexit vote in 2016.

7th February 2020 UK House Prices Rose At 4.1 Percent In January

UK house prices rose at the fastest annual rate since February 2018 last month according to UKs biggest mortgage lender Halifax bank.

Most economic forecasters are underestimating the UKs ability to grow economically in 2020 and house price rises is one area in particular that they will be way off the mark.

Faster UK house price growth is going to bring faster economic growth as a whole in UK economy. More people will buy homes and buying a new home means spending money on other things like decoration new furniture and even more house insurance as new builds need insuring.

5th February 2020 UK Services Sector Biggest Jump In Business Growth Since September 2018 In January

According to IHS Markit survey of UK business activity in the services sector is growing relatively strongly.

Service sector business leaders are now at their most confident in the UK economy since May 2015. The Service sector represents around 75 percent to 80 percent of the UK economy so growth and confidence in this area is critical for UK economic growth as a whole.

Service sector leaders are looking to recruit in 2020 and this should support faster wage growth and therefore rising standards of living as wages increasing much faster than UK inflation.

In other survey results UK manufacturing and construction sectors are also performing better. Most if not all key UK economic data has shown that the UK economy is set for a much better 2020 than most economic forecasters were predicting in 2019.

3rd February 2020 New Manufacturing Orders In UK In January Rose At Fast Rate Since April 2019

According to IHS Markit CIPS purchasing managers index PMI the UK manufacturing has experienced a mini revival since the General Election result in December unexpectedly threw up a very decisive political outlook for at least the next 5 years.

The Eurozone countries continue to struggle economically with Germany France and Italy the biggest countries all barely growing or contracting economically.

The UK left the European Union on the 31st January after 47 years as a member. There remains doubt about how the UK will trade with the EU in future and this will not become clear until mid 2020 at the earliest.

The UK consumer has increasing confidence in the UK economy. Mortgage approvals have already accelerated and this will continue. There will be a massive recovery in the UK housing market backed by record low levels of unemployment cheap money and a shortage of supply.

Wages should continue to beat UK inflation meaning that UK living standards will continue to rise at least during the early part of 2020. With a more stable political platform the UK economy should beat the downturn experienced in continental Europe. If the international trade wars can be solved and there is no international geopolitical upset the UK economy growth will outstrip most economic expert predictions of just 1 percent region.

27th January 2020 UK Banks Approved Highest Number Mortgages In 10 Years

According to the latest data from industry group UK Finance on 2019 saw the most number of mortgage approvals. More than a quarter of a trillion pounds was lent in 2019. More than half a million mortgages were for house purchase which was the highest annual level since 2015. House prices in UK are expected to rise faster in 2020.

21st January 2020 UK Unemployment Remains At 45 Year Low

At a time when the UK faces its most turbulent time since the Second World War and economic experts continue to talk about global economic slowdown the UK continues to perform exceptionally well in the jobs market.

UK employment rate grew to its highest point on record 76.3 percent. Unemployment remains at lowest for 45 years. 3.8 percent are unemployed. Average wages without bonuses are growing at 3.4 percent well above UK inflation rate of 1.3 percent.

Office for National Statistics ONS

With most people in the UK planning on changing jobs in the UK in 2020 the shortage of skills and low unemployment will continue to support wages rising faster than UK inflation. As a result UK standard of living will continue to rise in real terms on average throughout 2020.

15th January 2020 UK Inflation Drops To Three Year Low In December

UK inflation in December was just 1.3 percent well below Bank of England BoE target of 2 percent whih would normally be a strong indicator of UK interest rates being cut. Cutting UK interest rate encourages more spending and more demand and if supply stays the same prices rise towards healthy inflation rate of 2 percent.

Cutting interest rate also encourages additional investment by businesses which helps grow the economy.

House prices in UK are already accelerating but lower interest rate could push up UK house prices even faster if the BoE lowers UK interest rate at the end of January 2020.

A more fluent UK housing market would support additional spending in the shops and help struggling retailers as well as grow the UK economy faster in the spring.

Several members of the Bank of Englands rate setting committee have now indicated that they could support a rate cut.

10th January 2020 A Raft Of UK Business and Consumer Surveys Indicate Rising Confidence in UK Economy Following The Conclusive General Election Result In December

8th January 2020 UK House Prices Jumped At Fastest Monthly Rate In December according to Halifax Bank The UKs Biggest Mortgage Lender

According to Halifax Bank UK house prices increased 4 percent in 2019. Halifax is forecasting even faster house price growth in 2020 due to rising standard of living high employment levels and limited property coming to the housing marketplace.

31st December 2019 Biggest Ever Increase In National Living Wage In UK Will Boost Business Takings and Reduce Universal Credit Costs

Often low income earners in UK receive top up payments from the UK government. If UK employers pay more the UK government will pay less.

Many low paid workers with more income can pay off debt save more or spend more. If they do the latter they will boost business income which can offset cost of National Living Wage Increases. A full time worker on the new National Living Wage will be around £1000 better off per annum.

3 million workers in UK will get a massive pay increase compared to the current average wage increase rate. The new National Living Wage increase will come in in April 2020.

Low wage earners in the UK will receive a pay increase of 51p per hour. The National Living Wage for people 25 and over will increase to £8.72 from £8.21.

21 to 24 year olds and apprentices are paid at a lower rate and will receive a minimum wage increase of around 50p per hour too.

The current UK government has committed to increasing the National Living Wage to £10.50 by 2024.

UK trade unions are calling for a £10 per hour National Living Wage level now. UK business leaders should therefore suck up the current planned wage increase and look to the benefit that will come from 3 million higher paid people in the UK.

The real national living wage should already be £9.30 based on the level needed to cover the cost of living in the UK

The Living Wage Foundation

23rd December 2019 UK Business Leaders Confidence In UK Economy Jumps

Following the result of the UK General Election on 12th December confidence among UK business leaders jumped to its highest level since the European Union EU referendum in 2016 according to the Institute of Directors IoD.

Confidence levels in their own firms also leapt from 26 percent to 46 percent according to IoD Confidence Track Index.

20th December 2019 UK Had Smallest Trade Deficit With Rest Of World Since 2012 In Third Quarter 2019

UK businesses took advantage of the low value of the pound to export more. The Office for National Statistics ONS has reported a jump in goods exported from UK. Britains balance of payments deficit narrowed to smallest gap since 2012.

17th December 2019 UK Employment Hits All Time High

UK unemployment dropped to its lowest level of since January 1975. UK unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in three months to October according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. There are still 794000 job vacancies in the UK.

UK wages including bonuses are growing at 3.2 percent on average. Wages excluding bonuses are growing at 3.5 percent.

6th December 2019 UK House Prices Still Resiliently Increase Despite Uncertainty Of General Election and Global Economic Slowdown

The UK housing market has been resilient through parts the most difficult time since the Second World War. In November UK house prices grew at fastest rate for 9 months.

UK average house prices rose by 1 percent in November compared to October which was the fastest house price growth in UK since February 2019.

Halifax House Price Index

Halifax bank is the biggest mortgage lender in the UK so has great insight into house price movements in the UK.

Year on year UK house prices were 2.1 percent higher than they were in November 2018

Halifax House Price Index

13th November 2019 UK Inflation At 3 Year Low In October

UK consumer prices inflation falls to 1.5 percent continuing the rise in UK living standards. Wage increases in UK on average are far outstripping the rise in prices meaning that UK standard of living is increasing as it has done for nearly two years. UK average wages are increasing at 3.6 percent.

UK consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in October compared to 1.7 percent in September

Office for National Statistics ONS

The continuing rise in UK living standards should result in either higher consumer spending boosting the UK economy paying off of existing debts or increased savings for the future which will produce future economic growth.

Inflation of just 1.5 percent means UK inflation is far undershooting the Bank of Englands healthy inflation target of 2.0 percent. Cutting UK interest rates pushes up inflation as people and businesses borrow more and spend or invest it. Conflicting with this is the high employment levels in UK which normally result in higher UK interest rates. The data does provide massive flexibility for the Bank of England to shift UK interest rates any way it wants or feels the economy needs including an interest rate cut in the event of problems arising from the General Election in December such as another hung parliament creating further economic uncertainty.

12th November 2019 UK Unemployment Rate Is Still At Lowest Since 1974

The UK labour market is still performing resiliently despite global economic slowdown.

The UK is currently growing at its slowest rate in nearly a decade however many comparative economies like Germany for example are struggling even more with economic growth.

The biggest barriers to economic growth in UK failing to seek more exports with benefit of low value of pound and global economic slowdown. However a close third is the skills gap in the UK workforce and near full employment in UK.

  • UK wages are increasing at 3.6 percent
  • UK still has 800000 advertised job vacancies and is already near full employment so wages should continue to rise faster than UK inflation. A growing skills gap means these job vacancies are unlikely to be filled without higher immigration into UK. Whether this is right is a political decision but economically the UK needs to fill this growing skills gap.
  • The number of EU nationals in work in UK has not changed much but there has been a growth in overseas workers coming from nonEU nationals.

UK interest rates are unlikely to change in near future but low unemployment levels rising living standards and an economy that is still growing mean than the most likely direction is an increase in interest rates.

11th November 2019 UK Continues Annual Year On Year Growth Despite Global Economic Slowdown Caused By Trade Wars

However the UK needs to make a decision on what to do next and stick to it. At the upcoming General Election on 12th December 2019 the UK needs to decide to leave the European Union or cancel Brexit. The indecision is what is hampering UK growth and ability to seize economic development opportunities. The UK has been failed by its politicians not its people or businesses. On the 12th December there needs to be a clear path ahead otherwise the UK economy will under perform.

Many forecast the UK falling into a recession when latest UK economic growth figures were revealed. Some wanted a technical economic recession for political reasons believing that it would put people off Brexit when the biggest problem by far is the trade war between USA and China.

UK economic growth or GDP increased by 0.3 percent between July and September 2019

Office for National StatiSTICS ONS

UK car manufacturing bounced back after the April shutdowns when the UK was supposed to leave European Union EU.

UK trade deficit narrowed due to increase exports from UK on back of lower value of the pound.

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16th October 2019 UK House Prices Increasing At 1.3 Percent According To ONS And UK Land Registry

Annual UK house price growth accelerated in August to an annual increase of 1.3 percent according to the Office For National Statistics ONS and UK Land Registry.

The UK Land Registry reporting of house price movement is based on actual homes sold not just those homes with mortgage from a particular lender like Nationwide and Halifax bank.

16th October 2019 UK Inflation Remains At Lowest Level Since November 2016 and UK Living Standards Continue To Improve

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS UK inflation in September remained at just 1.7 percent well below Bank of England healthy inflation target level of 2 percent.

The low inflation has other benefits to businesses in UK as it will be used as the annual increase in business rates.

Pensioners living standards will also increase as UK state pension will increase at 4 percent will above cost of living increase.

UK state benefits will increase by 1.7 percent in April 2020 which will be the first increase in 5 years.

The Retail Price Index RPI measure of inflation was 2.4 percent in September which is the lowest rate since November 2016.

15th October 2019 Northern Ireland Unemployment Rate Falls To Record Low Levels

Unemployment in Northern Ireland fell to 2.9 percent in the 3 months to August. This compares to 3.9 percent in the rest of the United Kingdom.

15th October 2019 UK First Buyers Show Confidence In UK Economy With Their Money

The number of mortgages taken on by first time home buyers in UK jumped to highest level since August 2007 in August according to UK Finance.

Despite global economic slowdown and Brexit uncertainty UK first time buyers show that UK consumers with limited money are prepared to risk their long term future in bricks and mortar in the UK.

Fewer people think buy to lets in UK are good idea as fewer new buy to let home purchase mortgages were sold in August year on year.

First time home buyers are the life given blood of the UK housing market. They are the future strength of the housing market.

UK interest rates are till exceptionally low compared to long term trends. There are signs that the trade war between China and USA are improving or at least not deteriorating! UK Brexit uncertainty should be resolved soon as it is likely that the UK will know if it is leaving or remaining in EU soon.

Although employment levels in UK fell recently unemployment in UK is still at record low with the gap between inflation and wage growth high meaning that living standards in UK are rising and have been for months.

10th October 2017 UK Economy Still On Track To Avoid Recession in 2019. UK current growth rate is 1.1 percent.

UK gross domestic product GDP in the three months to August was 0.3 percent higher than in the previous three month period. In addition the ONS has concluded the UK expanded faster than it previously said for the three months to July. It actually grew 0.1 percent in the three months to July.

Office For National Statistics ONS

The Bank of England BoE has forecast that the UK economy will avoid recession in 2019. The BoE is forecasting UK growth of 0.2 percent in the third quarter and thereby the UK will avoid a technical recession.

The ONS has reported that the UK economy is currently growing at 1.1 percent. UK growth has actually accelerated in the last 3 months reviewed according to ONS.

7th October 2019 UK House Prices Rising At 1.1 Percent Year On Year In September

According to the Halifax bank the biggest mortgage lenders in UK house prices are rising at 1.1 percent.

30th September 2019 UK Growth Revised Up

The UK economy grew by 1.3 percent in the year to the end of June 2019 revised up from 1.2 percent by the Office for National Statistics ONS.

25th September 2019 Use Of Credit Cards In UK Falls

Could a rising standard of living in the UK be responsible for a reduction in the need to borrow on credit cards to fund lifestyle choices?

UK shoppers borrowed on their credit cards at the slowest annual rate since February 2015 in August.

UK Finance

Credit card lending by major banks slowed to an annual growth rate of just 3.3 percent in August which was the slowest rate since February 2015.

Some economists worry that it is evidence that overall consumer spending in UK is falling. However it could be that the UK consumer has more money in their pocket and do not want to spend on credit as much as the needed to in past.

19th September 2019 Bank Of England Say UK Will Not Go Into A Recession This Year

The Bank of England BoE has indicated that political uncertainty in UK and globally will keep UK interest rates lower for immediate future months.

The BoE thinks the UK will not go into a recession this year. It will grow 0.2 percent in third quarter the BoE forecasts. UK interest rates could go up or down in the medium term but will leave them unchanged at 0.75 percent for the moment.

The current robust resilient UK economy suggests it is a better bet that UK interest rates will rise in the coming months than fall.

BusinessRiskTV

18th September 2019 UK Standard Of Living Improved Faster In August

UK consumers wages are increasing even faster than inflation as wage increases are accelerating and the cost of living in UK is not increasing as fast in August.

UK wages are increasing at 4.0 percent. The gap between wage increases and inflation is widening which means the UK standard of living is improving faster.

UK prices rose by just 1.7 percent in August. Annual UK prices were increasing at 2.1 percent in July so the August figure represents a slowdown in price increases.

Office for National Statistics ONS

A recognised healthy target inflation rate is 2.0 percent so current inflation rate of 1.7 percent would normally require a reduction in UK interest rates to bump it up and maintain stable business environment. However the current political uncertainty means that the Bank of England will sit on its hands with current interest rates.

UK workers have more money in their pockets but maybe paying off debt or saving more.

UK inflation is now at lowest rate since late 2016.

BusinessRiskTV

UK producer costs are lower than expected including the fall in the cost of fuel. The lower costs come from the global economic slowdown.

Many economists suggested the falling value of the pound would result in increasing UK inflation. This did not happen in August.

10th September 2019 More Good News Shows That UK Economy Continues Solid If Unexciting Business Performance

UK unemployment rate is at its lowest level since 1974 which further dispels the myth that the UK economy is in or heading towards a recession.

The number of people unemployed in UK fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8 percent in the three months to July

Office for National Statistics ONS

UK average wages are increasing at their fastest rate in 11 years at 4 percent. This means that the standard of living in the UK continues to rise. The current inflation rate is 2.1 percent. The gap between 2.1 percent and 4 percent signifies a net increase in the UK standard of living.UK wages are rising in real terms.

UK employment rate figure was unchanged at 76.1 percent which is the highest since records began in the 1970s.

UK interest rates should really rise as a matter of urgency giving these figures however the geopolitical uncertainty and Brexit uncertainty means the Bank of England is waiting like everyone else for the politicians to finally conclude whether the UK will leave the European Union EU or not.

Job creation is not a problem due to economic slowdown. The lack of qualified or experienced workers is the reason jobs are not being created as fast in UK. Given the low unemployment rate and low value of the pound making the UK less attractive to foreign workers this is not surprising.

The solution for UK businesses is to invest in training of existing employees and or investing in capital equipment to boost productivity for the business and the UK economy.

UK job vacancies have fallen 23000. However there are still 812000 job vacancies in UK according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. There are 1.29 million people in UK out of work.

BusinessRiskTV

An unemployment rate of just 3.8 percent is or is very close to full employment levels as defined by many economists.

The economy economy has probably already grown faster as many manufacturers in UK who would normally have had a summer shutdown had already shutdown in March April when the UK was supposed to leave the European Union EU. Their output this summer should rise compared to last year.

The UK economic fundamentals are solid. The political uncertainty could not be greater.

9th September 2019 Economists and Industry Bodies Show Their Political Credentials Not Their Economic Knowledge When They Hit The Media Airwaves With Their Prophecy Of UK Economic Doom

Many people argued that the UK was probably already in a recession. If the UK had been in an economic recession it would have been down to the global economic downturn not because the UK economy is broken for any reason.

The UK economy is not broken. Unlike Germany which is struggling due to global economic slowdown from international trade war.

BusinessRiskTV

According to the statistical experts the UK economy is growing not contracting.

The UK economy grew by 0.3 percent between June and July. Economists had forecast month on month growth of 0.1 percent and said the economy did not grow at all in June

Office for National Statistics ONS

The official figures suggests the UK could avoid a recession. The UK did contract in the second quarter due to stockpiled products in the first quarter being used up after the UK did not leave the European Union at end of March as was planned. The UK has started the third quarter relatively spiritedly given the state of the European Union and Germany in particular.

6th September 2019 UK House Prices Increase At Fastest Rate In Four Months

According to the biggest mortgage lender in the UK British house prices increased in August at the fastest annual rate in four months.

Latest UK house price report states that UK house prices rose 1.8 percent year on year in August after a 1.5 percent rise in July

Halifax Bank

At the time that many economists and political commentators feel is the worst most dangerous time in UK history since World War 2 UK house prices continue to rise and indeed house price rises are accelerating.

If only the economists and political commentators had as much faith in the UK economy as the general UK public does! The global economy is in slowdown phase. You only need to look at Germany the economic powerhouse of Europe which is probably in a recession right now to know that the economic climate is not good. However the UK is very well placed to weather the global economic storms and business leaders need to plan for a better future now as it is attainable.

14th August 2019 UK Economy Remains Resilient

UK inflation in July ticked up slightly to 2.1 percent just above the Bank of England BoE healthy inflation target of 2 percent. UK inflation remains under control and there is zero pressure on the BoE to increase interest rate to contain inflation.

Supercharged UK wage increases do put pressure on the BoE to increase interest rate especially as wages are rising much faster than the cost of living meaning that the standard of living in UK continues to rise. However the global trade wars and Brexit will prevent BoE from increasing rates until at least after end of October 2019.

According to UK House Price Index in June UK house prices continue to rise albeit at a low rate of just 0.9 percent. House prices in London are falling but Wales for example is experiencing house price rises of 4.4 percent.

Compare the UKs resilience to the economic contraction in Germany and poorly performing eurozone and you can see that comparatively the UK is performing well in global economic slowdown.

Employment levels in UK are at record high which means that a collapse in the housing market is a long way off. Personal debt levels in UK are not increasing as fast as they have in the past as consumers save more or pay off debt faster.

13th August 2019 UK Average Wages Increasing At 11 Year High

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS UK wage growth in June excluding bonuses rose at 3.9 percent. Wages are rising at the fastest rate in 11 years.

With inflation running at 2 percent this means on average the standard of living in UK continues to rise and is in fact improving faster.

UK unemployment rate in June rose to 3.9 percent but still at low rate not seen since 1970s.

The employment rate is at joint highest rate since records began in 1971.

UK wages have been rising faster than inflation consistently since March 2018 and therefore UK standard of living has been improving since March 2018.

BusinessRiskTV

Taking inflation into account UK wages are rising in real terms at 1.9 percent.

In normal circumstances such a strong wage growth and high employment levels would alert businesses and individuals in the UK to imminent UK interest rate rises. However the Bank of England has decided to hold interest rate at close to record low though the recent direction of travel has been upwards.

Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates due to the global economic slowdown largely due to international trade war between USA and China.

Although the UK economy is growing more slowly it is growing faster than peers including Germany Italy and Japan.

9th August 2019 UK GDP Contracted 0.2 Percent In Second Quarter Of 2019

It is most likely that the UK economy is slowing as part of global economic contraction.

The UK economy grew 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2019 which was stronger than expected largely due to widespread stockpiling by UK firms in the run up to end of March deadline for leaving the EU.

The fall in output in second quarter was primarily driven by an unwinding of Brexit related stockpiling activities in the first quarter

Office For National Statistics ONS

Secondly the UK was supposed to leave at the end of the first quarter and stock piled up in the first quarter will have been used in second quarter hence less output in second quarter. Many factories also shut down at beginning of second quarter to do planned maintenance at a time when the UK was expected to be in the midst of leaving European Union EU.

Thirdly the powerhouse of the European economy Germany is in recession and the eurozone is struggling. Our nearest trading partner is severely struggling and will probably need to restart quantitative easing QE and lower interest rates.

The UK suffers due to global economic slowdown but the UK economy critical fundamentals are still strong including record high employment levels rising standard of living due to wages rising faster than inflation and house prices on average are still rising.

5th August 2019 UK Economy Shocks On Upside Yet Again Shaming Most Economic Forecasters

The Service Sector in the UK drives around 85 percent of the UK economy. It grew in July at its fastest rate in 9 months.

The UK Services Sector grew faster than all forecasts in a Reuter poll of economists

IHS Markit CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers Index PMI July

After a relatively strong performance at the start of the year compared to rest of Europe many economists were suggesting the UK was heading for or in recession.

The UK continues to outperform the rest of Europe at a time of global economic slowdown. Too much focus is placed on Brexit. The UK economy is threatened but from the global slowdown.

A great many central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates to help manage the threat from global economic slowdown but the Bank of England is keeping its powder dry for the moment with no interest rate cut. Indeed the most recent movement was upwards.

UK economic growth is weak but compared to many developed economies is extremely healthy with high employment wages rising faster than inflation increasing standard of living considered borrowing and relatively strong business activity.

The low value of the pound does make imports more expensive but makes it easier to export from the UK. Whilst it makes holidaying abroad more expensive it makes income in UK from foreign tourists greater.

UK consumers continue to spend further supporting the UK economy though more and more of the spend is going online instead of High Street.

The composite PMI which combines the services manufacturing and construction industries also rose in July.

18th July 2019 Robust Demand For Mortgages In UK

Lenders in Britain report demand for mortgages rose significantly in the second quarter of 2019 and is expected to hold steady in the third quarter according to the Bank of England BoE.

At the same time people are saving more and borrowing less via unsecured lending which fell in the second quarter. Rising wages may mean UK consumers need to borrow less as credit card lending fell.

18th July 2019 UK Retail Sales Jump In June

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS retail sales volumes jumped when many UK retail experts were forecasting a retail sales volume fall.

17th July 2019 UK Inflation Holds At 2 Percent

The Office for National Statistics ONS has reported that UK inflation remained at 2 percent in June which is bang on Bank Of Englands BoE historic healthy inflation target. This means there is no pressure to change UK interest rates.

10th July 2019 UK Economy Still Growing Despite Global Economic Contraction In Trade

UK economic growth was 0.3 percent in May according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. The UK economy also grew 0.3 percent in the three months to the end of May. All sectors of UK economy grew over this three month period.

The ONS has also reported that the UK economy did not contract in March as it previously reported. In fact it grew and grew despite large parts of UK car manufacturing shutting down at the time the UK was supposed to leave the European Union EU.

Political gesturing by commentators and politicians that the UK is probably in recession now is premature and dangerous. It may serve their purpose but not the people of the UK or its businesses

BusinessRiskTV

The UK economy is still growing in the face of relatively unprecedented international global trade wars and unsettling geopolitics. The UK economy is demonstrating extraordinary resilience with record high employment levels rising wages and growing standard of living with wages rising faster than inflation.

Although there has been regrettable fall in car production there have also been positive announcements in the automotive industry. BMW will produce an electric mini in 2020 and Jaguar Land Rover will produce an electric car model too.

If the UK can invest significant money in infrastructure and build more homes in next few years this will a sufficient boost to drive forward the UK economy.

5th July 2019 UK Skills Gap and Brexit Pushing Up UK Average Wages

Average wages in UK have increased by more than 2 percent for a year and a half. According to the Office for National Statistics ONS wages increased by 2.1 percent in the three months to end of March 2019.

Cheap labour from overseas has been less evident and UK employers are having to pay more to attract and retain employees. The demand for new employees far outstrips supply of adequately skilled employees. As a result those that do have the skills can ask for higher wages.

1st July 2019 UK Consumer Credit Growth Rate Slowed To 5 Year Low In May

According to the Bank of England annual growth in consumer credit in UK slowed to a 5 year low in May.

UK consumer credit increased by 5.6 percent year on year in May 2019. This is lowest rate of growth since April 2015.

BusinessRiskTV

UK consumers are not borrowing as much money to buy cars or as much on credit cards or other unsecured loans as the global economy faces increasing threats from international trade disputes particularly between USA and China.

UK consumers are saving more money than at any time since September 2016.

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Although unsecured lenders in UK are cautious mortgage firms are making it cheaper to mortgage as many lenders have reduced mortgage rates on the market.

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5th June 2019 UK Services Sector Grows Faster

The UK Services Sector is growing faster than most predicted. Britains services sector had its second consecutive month of growth in May according to IHS Markit UK Services Purchasing Managers Index PMI.

Employment in UK services Sector jumped in May.

14th May 2019 UK Unemployment At Lowest Since January 1975 According To Office For National Statistics ONS

Record low unemployment levels are helping to push up wages in UK. Wages are rising by 3.3 percent on average.

The employment rate in the UK is at the joint highest on record at 76.1 percent of workers.

4th May 2019 UK Economy Growing Faster Than Forecast

Bank of England BoE has upgraded its economic forecast for UK growth in 2019 to 1.5 percent from 1.2 percent only forecast in February 2019.

18th April 2019 UK Inflation 1.9 Percent

UK inflation in March  stayed at 1.9 percent below the Bank of England BoE inflation target which means there is little pressure to increase UK interest rates any time soon.

In addition as average wages are increasing at 3.4 percent the standard of living in UK continues to rise.

Retail sales have jumped supported by resilient confidence in UK economy and relatively warm weather. Year on year growth was 6.7 percent in March the highest rate since October 2016.

20th March 2019 UK Inflation Rate Remains Close To Recent Low

UKs inflation rate has increased slightly but still close to two year low according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.

In February the UK inflation rate was 1.9 percent which is still below Bank of Englands BoE 2 percent healthy inflation rate target so short term pressure to increase UK interest rate is still insignificant.

Weak UK inflation is significantly below average UK wage increases which means on average the standard of living in UK is rising.

19th March 2019 UK Employment Rate Highest Since Records Began In 1971

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the number of employed people in the UK has risen to a new record number of 32.7 million people between November and January

UK unemployment rate is at 3.9 percent which is the lowest since 1975.

Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses increased by 3.4 percent well ahead of inflation meaning that average living standards continue to rise in UK.

British employers increased their hiring at the fastest pace since 2015 in the three months to January 2019.

The number of job vacancies in the UK economy increased by 4000 to 854000. The growing skills gap in the UK suggests that

  • the UK economy is healthy
  • wages are set to rise faster
  • their is increasing pressure to increase UK interest rates
  • UK deficit is set to fall further is the UK government does not increase spending

Employers in UK need to invest more in training and upskilling existing workforce to retain staff and protect business resilience.

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. 

19th February 2019 Employment Rate In UK Highest Since 1971 which is when records began

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS UK employment rate is the highest since 1971 during the period October to December 2018.

UK unemployment rate remains lowest since 1975 at 4 percent.

BusinessRiskTV

UK weekly average earnings rose 3.4 percent. Real wages in UK adjusted for inflation are now at the highest level since March 2011.

Job vacancies in the UK are at the highest level since records began. This means wage increases in the UK will continue to outstrip inflation in UK as employers face a skills gap crisis and have to pay more to attract and retain employees.

13th February 2019 UK Inflation Fell To Two Year Low In January

UK consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in January falling from 2.1 percent in December according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. Factory input inflation costs are also slowing.

Falling energy costs was a large contributor to slowing inflation. However higher energy costs are becoming a reality as the UKs top six energy providers this week to raise prices.

16th January 2019 UK Inflation Rate Fell To 2.1 Percent in December

UK inflation falls from 2.3 percent in November according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. The fall of inflation means that UK interest rates should remain stable for foreseeable.

On average the standard of living in UK is rising based on the fact that average UK pay growth is rising at 3.3 percent.

8th January 2019 UK House Prices Continue To Rise According To Halifax Bank

UK house prices rose at 1.3 percent in the three months to December beating most expert economic forecasts that suggested house prices would only rise by 0.4 percent.

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31st December 2018 Spending On Entertainment In UK Grow Healthily and Set To Continue

Spending on entertainment grew 9 percent year on year in 2018. People were eating and drinking out more in 2018 compared to previous year.

The pub and restaurant sectors spending grew 11.2 percent and 8.7 percent respectively according to Barclaycard the most popular credit card supplier in the UK.

18th December 2018 UK Manufacturing Orders Grow For Second Month

British factory orders grew for a second month in a row in December according to Confederation of British Industry CBI.

18th December 2018UK Inflation Fell To Lowest Level Since March 2017

  • UK inflation fell to 2.3 percent in November down from 2.4 percent in October according to the Office for National Statistics ONS

With average wages rising at 3.1 percent the fall in inflation helps to improve the standard of living in the UK on average.

UK house prices are still rising despite uncertainty around Brexit. House prices are rising at 2.7 percent.

11th December 2018 UK Employers Are Recruiting More Than Ever

UK employers hiring intentions at 18 month high according to latest Manpower Employment Survey including retail and public sector despite recent failure of retail businesses and Brexit worries.

11th December 2018 UK Employment Figures Demonstrates That It Is Good That Politicians Are Tied Up With Brexit 

UK lawmakers have been tied up with Brexit for the last couple of years and had little time for any other tinkering with the UK statute book. The country is effectively running itself and this is no bad thing! Politicians on both sides of parliament are not fit to run the country but luckily the country can run itself.

The Office for National Statistics ONS has confirmed that the UK had the joint highest employment rate since records began in 1971 in the period August to October 2018. 75.7 percent of people aged 16 to 64 were in paid work.

  • Record numbers of people are in work in UK
  • Average earnings are at their highest level for a decade
  • UK jobless rate is 0.2% lower than a year ago at 4.1 percent
  • UK average earnings increased by 3.3 percent in the year to October. This is the highest figure since 2008
  • UK wages are rising substantially above latest inflation rate of 2.4 percent so on average living standards in UK rising relatively rapidly.
  • Real earnings growing faster than at any time since around the end of 2016
  • Job vacancies were up by 10,000 on the quarter to a record high of 848000

Many want to portray the UK economy as a basket case for their own ends but it is more grey than black and white. The collapse of the value of the pound creates massive opportunities for exporting more overseas. There are always opportunities from downside risks.

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14th November 2018 UK Inflation In October Was 2.4 Percent

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS reported UK inflation remaining at 2.4 percent.

Average wages in UK are rising at 3.2 percent which is slightly higher than previous rate which means the standard of living in the UK is accelerating.

Basic wages in UK rising at fastest rate since 2008 over the three months to September

BusinessRiskTV

UK wages are set to increase further due to the highest employment levels ever high unfilled job vacancies and a growing skills gap requiring UK employers to pay more to attract and retain employees.

9th November 2018 Britains Economy Grew Healthily But Not Spectacularly 

  • UK economy is growing at 1.5 percent on an annualised basis
  • Gross Domestic Product GDP in third quarter of 2018 was 0.6 percent.
  • Third quarter UK economic growth was the fastest quarterly growth since fourth quart of 2016.

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the UK economy grew healthily in the third quarter but not rapidly. Growth in the third quart was faster than the second quarter which was 0.4 percent.

UK economy growing 3 times faster than Eurozone economy in third quarter of 2018. Whilst both do not compare to USA China or India, UK business leaders need to get UK economic risk into perspective and start investing in their business to seize new business development opportunities

BusinessRiskTV

Comparing UK economic growth in the third quarter with economic growth in the same period for the eurozone we find that the UK was growing 3 times faster than the eurozone at 0.2 percent.

29th October 2018 Follow UK Budget Live and Read Highlights

8 straight years of UK growth. Predicting 800000 more jobs by 2023. Proportion of low paid jobs at lowest level since 1997. Office for Budget Responsibility OBR forecasting real wage growth every year for next 5 years. Budget deficit down from nearly 10 percent 8 years ago to 1.4 percent next year and to fall to 0.8 percent of GDP by 2023 to 2024.

  • Government increasing provision for supporting Brexit deal or no deal
  • OBR forecasting UK growth of 1.6 percent in 2019 1.4 percent in 2020 and 2021 and 1.5 percent in 2022 and 1.6 percent in 2023
  • New mental health crisis service announced. 24 hour mental health crisis hotline to be created.
  • Local councils to get more money for social care. Extra 650 million pounds for English councils for 2019 to 2020.
  • Defence MOD to get 1 billion pounds more this year and next for cyber measures and submarines.
  • Extra 160 million pounds of funding for counter terrorism policing in 2019 to 2020
  • Education to get 400 million for schools to apply for.
  • Pot holes filing funding of 420 million
  • 1.6 billion of new investment to support governments industrial strategy
  • National Productivity Investment Fund to increase to over 38 billion by 2023 2024.
  • New PFI contracts for future projects to be abolished. Existing PFI contracts to be honoured.
  • Increasing annual business investment allowance from 200000 pounds to 1 million pounds for two years
  • Extra 200 million pounds funding for British Business Bank
  • Small business apprenticeship levy to be halved to 5 percent
  • New UK digital services tax to be introduced on companies with global revenues of over 500 million pounds in April 2020
  • UK High Street to be supported with 675 million pound future High Streets investment fund to rejuvenate High Streets in UK.
  • For next two years business rates to be cut for smaller English retailers by one third
  • UK housing sector changes to include stamp duty relief and more funding in partnership with housing associations.
  • Increasing the Transformation Cities Fund to 2.4 billion pounds
  • Nearly 1 billion extra for the Scottish government by 2020 to 2021
  • Extra 550 million for the Welsh government and 320 million for Northern Ireland Executive
  • New tax on manufacture and import of plastic packaging that is 30 percent recyclable or less
  • Freezing fuel duty again. Tobacco escalator will continue to rise. Freeze on beer and cider duty. Freeze on duty on spirits.
  • Universal Credit changes to include transitional funding of an extra 1 billion pounds over 5 years. Plus 1.7 billion extra funding via Universal Credit work allowances increasing by up to 1000 pounds per year
  • National Living Wage to rise in April 2019 from £7.83 to £8.21.
  • UK Tax Personal Allowance to rise to 12500 from 11850 pounds and Higher Rate Tax Allowance of 50000 from 46350 pounds changes from April 2019.

19th October 2018 UK Budget Deficit Smaller Than Expected In September

The UK budget deficit reduces again according to figures from the Office for National Statistics ONS. The UK has taken more money in taxes and increased spending over the period.

UK deficit this financial year is 19.9 billion pounds down 35 percent from 2017 the smallest total at this stage of the year since 2002

BusinessRiskTV

The UK will unveil its new budget on 29th October 2018.

  • UK deficit in 2010 9.9 percent of GDP
  • UK government forecast in March 2018 that deficit in 2018 financial year will be 1.8 percent of GDP.
  • Total UK public debt is 1.79 trillion pounds or 84.3 percent of GDP which is more than double its level before the financial crisis in 2008. Taking out the effect of Bank of England BoE Quantitative Easing QE and money injection total public debt is 75.3 percent of GDP

The UK economy has slowed but it is still growing.

17th October 2018 UK Inflation Slows In September

UK consumer price growth slowed to 2.4 percent in September compared to 2.7 percent in August according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.

16th October 2018 UK Unemployment Continues To Fall Wages Rising Faster

  • UK unemployment has fallen by 47000 in the three months to August
  • UK unemployment rate is 4 percent
  • UK employment levels remain at near record highs
  • Average earnings with bonuses increased at 2.7 percent in three months to August
  • Average pay without bonuses jumped 3.1 percent year on year
  • Average pay without bonuses jumped at it fastest rate since 2009

A job seekers market has dawned. Job hunters are in the driving seat. UK employers will need to pay more to attract new talent to fill skills gap.

Bank of England predicting UK average weekly earnings will grow at 3.25 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020

BusinessRiskTV

UK unemployment is at lowest level since 1975. Youth unemployment in UK is at a record all time low.

Wage increases in UK have outstripped UK inflation for 7 consecutive months increasing the standard of living in UK over the period

BusinessRiskTV

UK job vacancies remain at near record level suggests that wages are going to have to rise faster to attract talented workers out of their existing jobs.

If wages increase at low paid end of the jobs market this would reduce the cost to the public and lower government spending as low paid UK workers would get more from employer and less from the state.

There is an argument for pushing up the minimum wage in UK to reduce working poverty create a real living wage and reduce public spending.

Manufacturers in UK are struggling to find the skills needs to maintain supply. Much of the constraint on growth in UK manufacturing is down to lack of workers not other risk factors like lack of finance or capital access. This may lead to more automation. Alternatively UK employers will need to invest more in training their employees to fill the skills gap.

10th October 2018 UK Economic Growth Faster Than Many Experts Forecast

UK GDP in three months to August was faster than expected by many economists according to figures from the Office for National Statistics ONS.

Annual UK growth is currently running at 1.5 percent.

20th September 2018 Booming August UK Retail Sales

Actual UK retail sales outstripped most economic expert forecasts. As is normally the case the UK economic growth is accelerating as the year progresses.

UK retail sales in August were extremely buoyant according to figures from the Office for National Statistics ONS.

UK inflation jumped to a six month high of 2.7 percent in the 12 months to August.

BusinessRiskTV

UK infation still remains below average UK wage rises but only just. The ONS said sales in August were boosted by shops offering promotions on household goods such as furniture and electrical appliances.

17th September 2017 UK Consumer Spending Grows

According to Visa UK consumer spending grew over the three months to August at fastest pace since January 2018.

11th September 2018 UK Standard Of Living Continues To Improve

UK average wages continue to rise faster than inflation. UK wages increased at 2.9 percent in the 3 months to July according to figures from the Office for National Statistics ONS. UK inflation is 2.4 percent so on the standard of living in UK continues to improve.

  • UK unemployment has fallen 55000 to 1.36 million
  •  Unemployment stays at lowest rate in over 40 years
  • Numbers of people in work rose by 3000 to 32.397 million
  • UK job vacancies rose by more than 14000
  • UK job vacancies at record high of 833000 which could push wage increases even higher to attract new workers and retain existing employees
  • UK public sector deficit continues to narrow meaning that the tax take is increasingly covering the cost of public sector costs

The UK economy is growing faster than most economists predicted. A shortage of skilled workers in UK will worsen as the economy expands faster.

The recent increase in interest rate to 0.75 percent looks wise albeit at little late but normalisation of interest rates in UK is likely to continue.

10th September 2018 UK Economic Growth Accelerates

The economy economy grow 0.6 percent in the three months to July according to the Office for National Statistics ONS. This was the fastest growth since August 2017. The construction industry and services sector performed particularly strongly.

In addition to strong domestic growth exports from UK also grew. The UK’s trade deficit narrowed.

21st August 2018 Biggest UK Budget Surplus Reported In July Since 2000

According to the UK Office for National Statistics ONS in July 2018 instead of running a UK budget deficit the UK created a surplus. The UK tax income for the first time since July 2000 was high enough that the UK did not need to borrow money to pay its public sector bills.

Total UK borrowing for the 2018 financial year is at its lowest level for 16 years.

8th August 2018 UK Is Now At Full Employment Levels

A Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty thinks the UK is already at full employment level.

The theory is that when the UK hits full employment level wage increase will accelerate as UK employers have to pay more to attract and retain staff.

Faster UK wage growth should increase UK inflation. Prices will rise faster unless the Bank of England combats the extra pound in the pocket from higher wages with higher costs of borrowing. UK interest rate recently increased but that is not the end of interest rate increases in the UK.

20th July 2018 UK Government Borrowing April to June Fell to Lowest Level Since 2007

According to the Office of National Statistics ONS UK government borrowing for the first quarter of the financial year was the lowest for years.

Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks was nearly £1.8 trillion or 85.2 percent of GDP.

UK government borrowing is falling faster than the Office for Budget Responsibility OBR has forecast expected

BusinessRiskTV

This may give the UK Chancellor the opportunity to spend more or invest in the November 2018 budget announcement.

17th July 2018 UK Employment At Highest Level Since 1971

The number of people in the UK in employment has hit another record high according to Office for National Statistics ONS. Overall the employment rate was at 75.7pc. Unemployment rate is 4.2 percent according to the Office for National Statistics ONS which is lowest level since 1975.

Average weekly earnings in UK are increasing at 2.5 percent faster than inflation.

14th July 2018 UK Consumer Confident In UK Economy

UK consumer confidence has risen to highest level since Deloitte started measuring UK consumer confidence in 2011.

The UK consumers standard of living is rising as on average wages are now rising faster than prices. Job security is increasingly better due to a growing skills shortage.

10th July 2018 UK Economy Expands Faster As The Year Progresses

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the UK economy picked up growth expansion in May.

Year on year in May the UK economy grew 1.5 percent. Whilst 1.5 percent GDP is not rapid growth it is still significant growth and much better than contraction feared by many.

4th July 2018 UK Economy Is Much Stronger Than Many Economists Want To Talk About

UK services sector reported its fastest rise in activity since last October in June this year according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI from IHS Markit.

UK services sector makes up around 80 percent of total UK economic growth. Recent UK economic performance in May and June indicates that the UK economy is performing better than most economic commentators are prepared to express.

Overall UK economic activity in June grew at the strongest pace since October 2017.

29th June 2018 UKs Economic Growth Revised Up 1st Quarter of 2018

According to the Office for National Statistics ONS the UK grew faster in the first quarter than the ONS initially thought. The UK economy grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Whilst this is much slower than growth in the last quarter of 2017 the UKs growth tends to be faster at the end of the year rather than the beginning. UK growth each year starts slow and accelerates as the year progresses.

The ONS also reported that the UK services sector grew 0.3 percent in April which was the fastest monthly increase since November 2017. The UK services sector powers around 80 percent of the UK economy.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

BusinessRiskTV

The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

21st June 2018 UK Government Borrowing Continues To Fall

The UKs debt is still rising but not as fast as was forecast. UK owes 1.85 trillion pounds.

UK government  borrowing fell to 5bn pounds in May down 2bn pounds from a year earlier. Borrowing for the financial year to date to 11.8bn pounds 4.1bn pounds less than in the same period in 2017. 

BusinessRiskTV

Last financial years borrowing was not as high as previously stated. The Office for National Statistics ONS revised down its figure for government borrowing in 2017 2018 to 39.5bn pounds. This is the lowest annual level of UK borrowing in 11 years.

Once again it looks like the economic experts economic forecasts of misery for the UK appear to be oversold. Take most economic forecasts with a pinch of salt. However you are in control of your own destiny whatever the economic experts predict.

20th June 2018 Big Jump In UK Industrial Orders In June

According to the Confederation of British Industry CBI British manufacturers have reported a big rise in orders in June.

The UKs rising standard of living due to wages rising faster than inflation suggests that the consumer in UK will also give a boost to the services sector throughout the rest of 2018.

The services sector accounts for around 80 percent of the UKs Gross Domestic Product GDP. The UKs GDP should also start to increase faster for the rest of 2018.

If the UKs construction industry could chip in with some growth the UK economy will be pretty productive for 2018 as a whole.

Now is the time to invest in your business in UK. Do not listen to the doom mongers! Your competitors maybe waiting to see what happens regarding trade wars Brexit immigration or for the cow to jump over the moon but you must not wait. Do not procrastinate. Seize the opportunity to beat your competitors to new business today.

18th June 2018 UK Household Income Growth Creates Spending Power and UK Economic Growth Potential For Rest 2018

UK consumers to benefit from fastest income growth for years in June according to Household Finance Index HFI from IHS Markit. This was biggest jump since the surveys started in 2009.

If UK consumers spend instead of save or pay off existing debt then the UK economy should get a boost during 2018.

13th June 2018 UK Inflation In May Steady

UK inflation stuck at 2.4 percent in May according to Office for National Statistics ONS. On average the standard of living is improving on the basis that average wages are now increasing faster than prices are rising. Average UK wages excluding bonuses are currently rising at 2.8 percent year on year.

UK unemployment rate remains at its lowest since 1970s at 4.2 percent. There are more people in work in UK and job vacancies in UK are very high. Wage growth in UK should accelerate though wage inflation has been kept stubbornly low.

5th June 2018 Should Experts Be Surprised Retail Sales In May Bounced Back?

UK retail sales bounce back in May after the Beast From The East bad weather in April deterred consumers from spending. Consumers bought summer fashion and hit the pubs and restaurants  or splashed out on garden gear and dusted off BBQs. Retailers saw the fastest growth in sales since January 2014 according to British Retail Consortium BRC.

Barclaycard said consumer spending grew by 5.1 percent year on year in May the highest level recorded since April 2017. Spending in garden centres jumped 50 percent over the three day early May bank holiday weekend compared with the same long weekend in 2017 according to Barclaycard.

Do not miss out on best discounted summer experiences CLICK HERE

23rd May 2018 UK Public Finances More Healthy Than Forecast

The UK started the new financial year in April with a lower than forecast budget deficit.

According to the UK Office for National Statistics ONS the budget deficit this financial year is more than a billion pounds less than April last year.

UK budget deficit for 2017 2018 is 2 percent of gross domestic product GDP which is the smallest budget deficit as a share of GDP since 2001 2002

24th April 2018 UK Government Borrowing 11 Year Low

UK borrowing fallen to lowest annual level in 11 years. Office for National Statistics ONS reports borrowing of nearly 43 billion pounds. Last financial year borrowing was below forecast of 45 billion pounds.

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