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25th June 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Economy To Shrink Nearly 5 Percent In 2020

The IMF is now predicting a deeper global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Even if the spread of the virus reduces which it is not consumers will be too frightened to spend at the same level as prepandemic. This will hit the the global economy hard.

8th June 2020 World Bank Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic To Shrink Global GDP By 5.2 Percent In 2020

The forecast if it is right will be worst global economic contraction since World War II. The World Bank is forecasting global economic growth of 4.2 percent in 2021.

26th May 2020 The Second Wave Is Often The Biggest Killer

Going back centuries we can see that it is often the second wave of infections that kill more people than the first hit of the pandemic. While some countries are getting to grips with the Covid19 pandemic others have yet to feel the full force of the new deadly virus.

The game changer will be a vaccine but without that most countries will experience second third or more waves of Covid19. How big these waves impact will depend on learning the lessons from the first wave and not repeating the same or similar mistakes.

A large second wave of the virus with run away exponential spreading that forces reinforcement of social and economic lockdown would be catastrophic. The reproduction rate in countries where the virus is under control must be kept below 1. Countries which do not have the virus under control need to be quarantined to prevent them spreading the virus back into controlled country environments.

Even without a second wave of deaths the first wave tsunami economic wave may hurt localised areas whole continents and the world:

  • Some countries will not be able to pay their debts built up prior to pandemic or during the pandemic.
  • The eurozone and wider European union could implode from within. Alternatively some weaker countries may be forced to leave for the sake of survival of the rest as a homogeneous economic unit.
  • Systemic banking collapse could yet occur. Italian Indian and Chinese banks are particularly weak. However unknown weaknesses in other national banking systems could be the first domino to fall.
  • Corporate entities soaked in debt may have to close creating bad debt others may struggle to cope with.
  • Commercial and private valuations will in the short term be overpriced. Investments which have such assets are also overpriced. If there is not a V-shaped recovery in the economy then in the medium term this could create an unstable finance sector that could be a lot more damaging than lost revenue for a few months.
  • The political fundamentals could change when people react to the dawning that not only have thousands of people died but their financial futures are ruined for decades or perhaps lifetimes. Russia Brazil and India could presently be smoldering in embers of political change which could affect oil prices and the global economy.

Most of all debt was a problem for many countries prior to pandemic. With the pandemic debt has been posted as the saviour. It could become a bigger killer than the virus.

14th April 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports The Global Economy Shrinking 3 Percent Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic

The IMF had forecast a growth of 3.5 percent for the the global economy pre pandemic. This means the IMF is forecasting a 6.5 percent swing from growth to global recession.

The financial crisis in 2009 only saw a global recession of 0.1 percent. This economic and financial crisis is 30 times worse than 2009 financial crisis. Next year the IMF expects a massive bounce back to global economic growth. Not all businesses will survive to see it.

23rd March 2020 Global Recession Due To Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Is Guaranteed

The only uncertainty is whether the global economy will deteriorate so much that a long term global economic depression happens.

20th January 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts 2020 and 2021

The IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. Risks to the global economy include:

  • High levels of inequality within countries and between countries
  • The rapid development of 4th industrial revolution technology threatening unemployment rises
  • High geopolitical risks and trade wars
  • Financial meltdown due to very high levels of debt

The IMF can see signs that some risks are stabilising but still significant threat to global growth.

9th January 2020 Now The Iran USA Immediate Threat Of War Is Dissipating The Global Economic Threat Returns To International Trade Wars

The signs are that both USA and Iran can agree to disagree again within killing thousands of people. The biggest threat to the global economy is the trade wars around the world particularly USA China trade war. Even this threat appears to be unwinding in its severity especially if they can do a partial deal soon.

If America and China can do a trade deal sign it and implement it the global economy can expand aggressively. It will be like the cork in a bottle of champagne.

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Until then and in addition to such a trade deal governments around the world need to invest heavily in infrastructure to support the global economy and prepare for rapid expansion 2021 onwards.

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