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6th December 2019 Labor Department Reports Huge Jump In Jobs In USA In November

Good USA economic data shows the USA economy more than healthy. The USA added 266000 jobs in November and the trade gap with the rest of the world closed.

USA economy added the largest number of jobs for 10 months in November. The USA unemployment rate has fallen to just 3.5 percent.


Such a low unemployment level suggests that the USA economy is extremely strong in comparison to its peers in Europe.

Recent USA economic data also revealed a significant closing of the international trade gap with the rest of the world. Recent years has seen excessive gap between USA and rest of the world in the rest of the worlds favour.

25th October 2019 USA Budget Gap Widens Again

The USA ended the 2019 fiscal year with the largest budget deficit in seven years despite record low unemployment and respectable economic growth.

The USA budget deficit widened to nearly a trillion dollars or 4.6 percent. The highest ever gap in budget was nearly 1.5 trillion in 2009 under Barack Obama.

12th October 2019 USA Agreed To Suspend Next Tariff Hike On Chinese Imports To USA

USA President Donald Trump said negotiators had reached a phase one deal that would include increased agricultural purchases and address financial services and technology theft.

USA due to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 percent next week.


Another planned tariff hike in December remains under negotiation.

USA farmers are currently competing with tariffs added to their agricultural products imported to China which is limiting opportunities for export sales.

4th October 2019 USA Unemployment Rate Falls To 50 Year Low In September

The unemployment rate in America was an astonishingly low 3.5 percent. The USA has created jobs for 108 months in a row. Instead of economists and political commentators focusing on the slowing of jobs creation they should first celebrate an incredibly low unemployment rate. Check out the Eurozone unemployment rates for example.

Clearly job creation is going to slow if the employment rate is so high that employers do not bother to create jobs as they know they will not find suitably qualified job applicants.

Employers in USA are going to have to invest in machinery and equipment if they are going to get jobs done or allow more labour into the country.

Investing in machinery and equipment would boost productivity and help longer term growth but would cost more than cheap labour. Should the American economy take a nosedive then employers will not get their investment in machinery back but they could sack cheap employees.

That is really the dilemma for USA employers. Do they have enough confidence in the American economy at a time of global economic slowdown largely caused by the trade war between China and USA? Or will USA President Trump do a deal with China so the world can breath a sigh of economic relief?

The problem for USA is not creating jobs for Americans. The problem is one of economic confidence. That can be resolved by doing a deal with China or opening the borders to cheap labour. At the moment the President does not seem likely doing either.

30th September 2019 More Signs That USA Is Putting 2008 Financial Crisis Behind It But Its Taken More Than a Decade To Get There

The USA government had to take control and ownership of the two companies that sell half of Americas mortgages Freddie Mac and Fannie May after the financial crisis in 2008.

When the USA economy started to recover the USA government benefited by sweeping up their profits as retribution and repayment of a debt owed by these incompetently led businesses to the USA government and people of America.

However the USA government has decided to allow these companies to now keep their quarterly profits in part to build up their financial reserves for the next financial crisis.

Both companies will remain under the control and vast majority ownership of the USA government for foreseeable future.

24th September 2019 USA House Prices Increasing Faster At Healthy Clip

USA house prices increased by 5.0 percent year on year in July which was faster than the 4.8 percent in June. Latest figures from the Federal Housing Finance Agency indicate a very healthy rate of growth in house prices in USA.

18th September 2019 US Federal Reserve Fed Cut Interest Rates Again

The interest rat cut was designed to provide insurance against ongoing risks including weak global growth and resurgent trade tensions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell

The Fed cut benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent.

The USA economy does not need an interest rate cut at this time. USA continues to grow strongly compared to much of the rest of world. It is still producing lots of jobs. There is little risk of a recession at this time. USA economic growth is running at 2.2 percent and USA unemployment rate is just 3.7 percent.

USA inflation is only 1.5 percent so there is room for further interest rate cut which would also lower the value of the dollar and make exporting from America easier. However the trade war with China is unlikely to be resolved until after next years USA presidential election. The uncertainty surrounding the trade war means that the Fed needs to keep its powder dry to fight future global economic deterioration. If the trade war continues or worsens further multiple interest rate cuts will be required later.

12th September 2019 USA Delays Planned Tariff Increase On 200 Billion Pounds Of Chinese Imports

A 5 percent increase to 30 percent due on 1st October will be postponed for two weeks. China has also agreed to not impose some tariffs on USA imports including some drugs and animal feed.

It is still looking like they trade war will not be solved until after the Presidential election in USA in 2020.

3rd September 2019 Longest Period Of Uninterrupted Growth Since World War 2

USA has benefited from 121 months of uninterrupted economic growth. After causing and suffering from the 2008 financial crisis America started building its economy again. Its been growing ever since June 2009.

The USAs financial service industry was at the heart of the financial crisis in 2008. It failed to control the risks. It will again fail to control the risks. We just do not yet know which risks are currently out of control. We do know that another crisis is due based on past history of suffering one every ten years or so.

Reckless management of risks and poor corporate governance caused the 2008 financial crisis. With hindsight it is easy to see how national governments in the UK and USA were negligent in trusting the financial services industry to regulate risk taking and selling of financial instruments.

America has now had its longest period of economic growth since the Second World War. Its grown for 121 months since June 2009. In the good times it is easy to forget the pain of the financial crisis though young unemployed in Greece Spain and Italy still suffer the pain from the financial crisis.

What will be the cause of the next financial crisis – CLICK HERE to join conversation

31st August 2019 Strong Increasing Consumer Spending Supports Economic Growth In America

Consumer spending increased strongly in USA in July according to Commerce Department. Near record low unemployment levels low means consumer spending is supporting economic stability in America.

Consumer spending in America is the biggest contributor to economic growth in America. Consumers have not stopped spending despite many economic forecasters best efforts to talk down the USA economy.

Some economic experts point to surveys suggesting consumers have less confidence in USA economy. However July consumer spending figures suggest American consumers are truly reflecting their confidence by spending more. Maybe what consumers say and what they do is different? Whats more important is what consumers do with hard earned dollar.

31st August 2019 Euro v Dollar

The value of the euro is dropping like a stone compared to the dollar. Some reasons the dollar trumps the euro just now:

  • Eurozone unemployment is over 7 percent. In USA it is around half of that. Low unemployment means less cost to the state and more money spent in the economy by people in jobs. More people in work normally means more business activity and more tax income for the state.
  • Eurozone business growth is actually very close to recession not growth. Whilst the American economy is not growing as fast as it was recently after massive corporate tax cuts the USA economy is growing much faster than eurozone. Plus the size of the pie in America is already much bigger than the eurozone economic pie.
  • The dollar has long been the currency of choice in times of uncertainty in comparison to other currencies. The trade war between China and USA is hurting both China and USA but the eurozone is hurting from global economic slowdown too. The dollar is and will remain the currency of choice for security in choice between dollar and euro.
  • The banking system in the eurozone is much weaker than the banking industry in USA. Italian banks remain on the brink of collapse that would implode the eurozone economy. Whilst USA banking system mismanagement caused the financial crisis in 2008 the USA banking system is much stronger now and much stronger than eurozone banking sector. Your dollar money is much safer than eurozone money.
  • The economic climate in USA suggests that interest rates should not have been cut recently. Interest rates in USA should be higher and higher interest rates normally mean higher associated currency. America has near record low unemployment. So does the eurozone but the eurozone unemployment low is around twice as high as in USA. The euzone will soon need to lower its interest rates and pump more cheap money into the economy via more quantitative easing QE. Lower interest rates in the eurozone will mean the value of the euro against the dollar probably as further to fall.

The low value of the euro does make it harder for USA businesses to compete with eurozone businesses but manipulating currencies values often ends in tears. America over the medium to long term is better to let the Federal Reserve accurately value the dollar internationally. In the short term this can be painful for USA businesses but short term pain for long term benefit.

Politicians do not think in terms of the long term. They are rarely around long enough to worry about the long term. Very high youth unemployment in many eurozone countries including Spain Italy and Greece could easily change the political direction of European countries in future. The eurozone remains on the edge of collapse and this is another reason you would rather have a dollar in your pocket instead of a euro.

23rd August 2019 China Announced Plans To Impose 10 Percent Tariff On 75 Billion Dollars Worth Of Goods Imported From USA

China has imposed new tariffs in response to to tariffs USA has imposed on China. However President Trump has said he will impose more tariffs in the USA China tit for tat trade war.

Agricultural goods crude oil and small aircraft are among the products being targeted.

China will also reintroduce 25 percent tariff on USA car imports that it previously lifted earlier in 2019 in a goodwill gesture as the two countries tried to negotiate a trade agreement.

China said it planned to impose its new tariffs in two stages on 1 September and 15 December 2019.

22nd August 2019 USA Unemployment Figures Better Than Many Forecasters Expected

The number of people in the USA filing claims for unemployment benefit fell by more than expected last week. The official figures from the USA Labor Department suggest the labour market is not weakening.

Many economic forecasters connected the USA unemployment figures in recent times to a red flag warning of impending USA recession.


The figures from the Labor Department may indicate the Federal Reserve was premature at reducing interest rate in July. The USA economy remains a bright spot on the global economic map. However USAs trade war with China is bringing about a global economic slowdown which may yet envelope America.

16th August 2019 USA Consumers Go On Spending Spree Creating Mixed USA Economic Expectations

Retail sales increased in July in the United States. USA consumers are showcasing their confidence in the American economy with their money.

Stock markets in America remain relatively resilient. USA also continues to produce new jobs and most recessions are predicated and fuelled by rising unemployment.

The USA has added jobs for 106 months in a row which is the longest period of job production on record in America.


USA unemployment rate is just 3.7 percent near the record low of 3.6 percent in 1969.

However many economists are suggesting America is heading into a recession. The USA Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since June 2007.

An inverted Treasury yield curve is historically a reliable predictor of looming recessions.


When the return you get from long term bonds is less than what you get from short term bonds the yield curve has inverted. In other words investors think a recession is coming and they have to settle for lower returns in future and accept lower returns.

However USA economic growth continues to far outstrip most developed countries around the world including the biggest ones like Germany UK and Japan. The problem is that these other countries are pushing the global economy into a recession largely arising from the trade war between USA and China.

China is suffering from the trade war too with industrial output growth in China slumping to a 17 year low.

Although President Trump wants USA interest rates cut further to lower the value of the dollar to make it easier to export goods and services there is no need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again.

9th August 2019 USA Is UKs Largest Market For Both Imports and Exports

UK government says America is the most important single country for international trade for the UK.

31st July 2019 USA Cuts Interest Rates By 0.25 Percent

USA Federal Reserve cut interest rates to help America navigate the global economic slowdown and trade wars particularly with China.

USA central bank cut its key benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.


This is the first interest rate reduction since financial crisis. Although the USA economy is still growing relatively fast compared to Europe the USA economic growth rate is reducing.

5th July 2019 USA Job Growth Jumps In June

The Labor Departments employment report for June surprised with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 224000. This is higher than recent monthly figures. The unemployment rate for USA is 3.7 percent.

Some 7 million USA job vacancies remain unfilled largely due the growing skills gap in America


The American economy has this month expanded for a record ten years. This is the longest consecutive growth period ever for USA since business cycle records began in 1854.

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will soon lower interest rates in America due to the international trade wars particularly with China. Even the exceptionally great employment report compared to what was expected is unlikely to stop an interest rate reduction sooner rather than later. It could come this month.

3rd July 2019 USA Trade Deficit With Rest Of World Jumps In May

USA Commerce Department reported the trade deficit jumped 8.4 percent to 55 billion dollars in May.

The trade war with China continues with tit for tat imposition of trade tariffs. The flight to the safe dollar has made USA goods and services more difficult to export from America. The result is a widening trade deficit with the world.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed to a trade truce and a return to talks but a deal is not just around the corner.

4th May 2019 USA Unemployment At Lowest Rate For More Than 49 Years

In April USA jobless rate fell to 3.6 percent the lowest since December 1969. Average wages in America are rising at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.

27th March 2019 Unvaccinated Kids Cause Educational and Business Disruption

A suburb of New York City has banned unvaccinated kids from schools and public places including shopping malls for at least 30 days due to alarming measles outbreak.

Under 18s who are not vaccinated against measles are banned from schools shopping centres churches and restaurants. Anyone defying the ban faces up to 6 months in prison.

23rd March 2019 USA Home Sales Jump

USA home sales jumped 11.8 percent in February.Americans can afford to buy as wages are rising and mortgage rates have fallen.

6th March 2019 USA Trade Deficit Jumped To 10 Year High In 2018

The trade deficit with China increased to record high despite USA slapping a quarter of a trillion dollars of tariffs on Chinese imports. China imposed 110 billion dollars of tariffs on USA manufactured products. Trump has delayed tariffs on 200 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports as part of trade negotiations with China.

The United States imports the most products from China Mexico and Germany.

4th January 2019 USA Created Significantly More Jobs Than Expected In December 2018

According to USA government data employers added 312000 jobs compared to forecasts of just 177000.

  • USA average hourly pay increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent

Fears of an impeding recession in America seem based on wishful thinking on some economic forecasters part. It also suggests that the Federal Reserve is perfectly correct in continuing to push up interest rates in 2019.

A Twitter List by HolisticRiskMgt

25th December 2018 Many People Mistakenly Think Trump Is Intellectually Challenged But They Are Wrong

President Trump may or may not be taking America down the wrong track economically. I believe his tweets and outbursts are often deliberately aimed at suppressing the value of the dollar and trying to keep interest rates artificially low.

The UK economy is in danger of overheating and the Federal Reserve quite rightly are increasing interest rates which also pushes up the value of the dollar making in more difficult to export from America. If America looks to be run by a thick unstable leader this spooks the markets and holds the dollar in a lower value than if people respected the judgement of the President.

The President looks across at China and sees it suppressing its currency value with envy. He does not have the same direct power over the marketplace so he resorts to tweets and the like to hold down the value of the dollar.

Trump uses this strategy in other ways. He used it against North Korea and China militarily. People think Trump is as unhinged as they perceive the leader of North Korea to be. At the start of 2018 many people thought America could attack North Korea to defend against missile attacks on USA. They thought Trump may just be mad enough to attack North Korea. More importantly people in North Korea and China think Trump may just be mad enough to attack North Korea! As 2018 draws to a close tensions between USA and North Korea have reduced even if actual political progress has not moved that far.

  • Arguments about funding The Wall on the border with Mexico and USA government shutdown
  • Criticisms of the Federal Reserve leadership and
  • Spats with China North Korea Canada Mexico Asia Pacific and Europe and more

All this supports Trumps core and only strategy. He wants to depress the value of the dollar at a time when the economy suggests even higher interest rates are required and the dollar should be stronger compared a basket full of other currencies.

If he fails to depress the dollar he can pivot to say that the dollar is high because people are recognising the strength of the USA economy the stock market is booming and older voters with savings get greater returns and income on money in the bank so feel wealthier. It is actually a clever economic strategy.

Trump is not stupid. He is however a bit of a one trick pony. The good news is as long as his one trick keeps working we all benefit. If it stops working because he believes his own hype then thats when we should all worry.

20th December 2018 Interest Rate Increase

Federal Reserve officials voted to hike interest rates by 0.25 percent. This is the fourth interest rate increase in America in 2018.

USA central banks key overnight lending rate increased to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent.


Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to slow or stop the rate of increasing interest rates in 2019. Economic experts are forecasting a maximum of two rate hikes next year whilst some say there will be no interest rate increases in 2019.

The Federal Reserve policymakers think the USA economy is performing well and no longer needs the Feds support of low interest rates.

3rd December 2018 USA and Chinese Leaders Agree Temporary Trade War Cessation 

America and China have agreed to halt additional tariffs. Fresh talks are planned to look at the tit for tat tariffs that have already been introduced to try to lift tariffs already in force.

28th November 2018 USA Economy Growing At 3.5 Percent

  • GDP increasing at 3.5 percent annualised rate according to USA Commerce Department

The USA economy continues to benefit from a 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut package by the federal government in America. Corporate America is investing a lot of the tax cut in business including vehicles plant and equipment.

Whether personal and corporate borrowing to buy will continue under an environment of increasing interest rates remains to be seen. The next interest rate rise is expected by many in December.

Further headwinds for the USA economy include trade war with China and European Union EU.

USA corporate profits increased by 3.3 percent last quarter


The benefits of the tax cut may dissipate in 2019 and this could slow USA economy in 2019.

14th November 2018 USA Consumer Prices Rising Faster

  • USA consumer prices increased by the most in nine months in October

Ratcheting up of consumer prices is likely to lead to quicker interest rate price rises in America.

The Labor Department reports its Consumer Price Index rose 2.5 percent in the 12 months to October


Record low unemployment levels in the USA the lowest for 49 years are likely to continue in foreseeable future means that increasing prices is likely to continue unless rapid interest rate rises curtail borrowing and consumer spending.

Annual wage growth rate jumped by the largest amount in more than nine years in in October 2018.

7th November 2018 Republicans lost overall control of Congress as the House of Representatives swung to the Democrats

However Republicans are likely to increase the number of seats it holds in the Senate. This suggests President Donald Trump will now have limited ability to change his polices.

Political gridlock in America after USA midterms


He will however retain control of his ability to issue executive orders via a strengthened power base in the Senate.

  • Country Risks. What Does Probable Political Gridlock In America Mean For USA and The World After USA Midterms

2nd November 2018 USA Employment and Wages In America Jump

  • USA job growth jumped in October
  • USA unemployment rate 3.7 percent a 49 year low
  • USA wages increasing at 3.1 percent. American wages posted largest annual increase in nearly a decade.

USA interest rates likely to rise again in December to try to stop runaway inflation. If wages are increasing at fastest pace since April 2009 and you have a growing skills shortage which America does then interest rates have to rise faster to combat existing and future inflationary pressures.

Employers also increased hours for workers last month. The average workweek increased to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in September.


Workers are buying more cars and would buy more houses if there were more houses to buy and interest rates remain affordable in relation to wages.

There are currently 7.14 million job vacancies in America


USA employers are going to have to push up wages faster than 3.1 percent to retain and attract new staff.

1st November 2018 USA Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Sales Jump

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles sales jumped 15.7 percent in October compared to October 2017.

5th October 2018 USA Unemployment Rate Fell To Lowest Rate in 49 Years In September

USA unemployment rate fell in September to 49 year low of 3.7 percent.

2nd October 2018 Amazon To Raise Minimum Wage

Amazon to raise its minimum wage to 15 dollars per hour for its USA full time part time temporary and seasonal employees from next month.

The new Amazon minimum wage level will benefit more than 250000 employees in the United States as well as over 100000 Christmas seasonal employees

USA federal minimum wage is currently 7.25 dollars.

1st October 2018 USA Settles North America Free Trade Agreement Nafta Disagreement With Canada

America as signed a new trade agreement with Canada. It will give American food exporters better access to Canadian consumers. Canadian exporters will gain better access to USA car buyers. The new deal could be seen as an example of a great trade deal where both sides win. Mexico had already resolved their differences with USA.

New USA Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement Signed USMCA Trade Agreement

The new USMCA covers more than 767 billion in trade between the country signatories. The new deal will run for 16 years.

26th September 2018 Federal Reserve Increased Interest Rates

USA Federal Reserve is forecasting at least three more years of USA economic growth. To try to temper inflation the Fed has lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent. Another interest rate increase is likely in December 2018 and continue rate rises throughout 2019.

13th September 2018 Unemployment Benefit Claims Continues To Fall in America

USA citizens filing for unemployment benefits dropped last week to near a 49 year low.

  • USA wage growth is accelerating
  • USA Consumer Price Index CPI is running at an annualised rate of 2.7 percent so consumer prices are relatively under control.
  • Trade war with China could drive up prices faster as tariffs would push up inflation in USA

Nevertheless USA interest rates likely to rise twice more in 2018 to try to cool inflationary pressures from a rapidly growing economy.

6th September 2018 USA Unemployment Is At Lowest For Decades

According to the Department of Labor job security in America has not been this good for decades. Applications for new unemployment benefits declined to the lowest level since December 1969.

USA unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 percent which is the lowest since 2000

Fewer Americans are losing their job and new jobs are being created at an incredible rate which means the American economy is going to accelerate even faster house prices will rise and interest rates will continue to climb higher to try to curb inflation.

6 Reasons Housing Is About To Become Even More Unaffordable #UsaAccomodation #UsaHousing #USAtoday #USA

— Accommodation Man (@AccommodationSt) August 21, 2018

8th August 2018 More USA Job Vacancies Than Unemployed People In USA

There have been more available jobs in America than unemployed workers for the last three months. According to the Labor Department in June there were around six and a half million people searching for work in June but there were more job vacancies.

Latest USA Economic Data

  • Americas unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is the lowest in 18 years
  • USA inflation in June was 2.9 percent
  • USA wages growth 2.7 percent
  • USA economy growing at around 4.1 percent

4th August 2018 The Problem With USA Jobs Market Is Not Lack Of Jobs But Lack Of Skilled Workers Or Even Just Lack Of Workers Prepared To Work

According to the USA Labor Department USA unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 percent. The likelihood of unemployment falling further is not down to lack of jobs but a lack of skills. Job vacancies in USA are still being created in massive numbers but the skills gap prevents these vacancies being filled.

There are people who could be in the USA jobs market who choose not to work for different reasons. Higher wages may tempt them back into job or to retrain to fill jobs vacancies.

USA average wages are increasing by 2.7 percent. The skills gap in America means this should accelerate creating more inflation. The lack of unskilled workers who are prepared to do unskilled jobs should also put more pressure on wages to rise faster. There is a lack of workers to fill skilled and unskilled jobs in America.

USA economy is currently growing at around 4.1 percent as per second quarter figures year on year.

USA interest rates have increased twice this year to try to keep a lid on inflationary pressures but at least one more increase is expect in 2018.

27th July 2018 US Economy Grew at Fastest Pace in Nearly Four Years in Second Quarter

USA GDP hit 4.1 percent in second quarter of 2018 according to Commerce Department.

USA exports grew by more than 9% the fastest rate since the fourth quarter of 2013

20th July 2018 Missouri Amphibious Boat Tragedy

At least 11 people have died after an amphibious duck boat carrying tourists sank on Table Rock Lake in stormy weather near Branson. Five others are missing.

Tweets from

3rd July 2018 More Evidence Of Expanding USA Economy

USA factory output rises faster than expected in June. The Institute for Supply Management is a trade group of purchasing managers. It has reported manufacturing activity at its highest level since February 2018.

USA manufacturing output and job creation all grew in June

19th June 2018 USA Housing Starts Jump In May

USA homebuilding starts jumped to highest since July 2007.

14th June 2018 USA Economic Data Continues To Improve

The American economy continues to develop for the better. Consumers hit the shops. USA retail sales jump in May according to USA Commerce Department.

First time applications for unemployment benefits fell last week and jobless roll call dropped to a near 44 year low.

Americas balance of trade continues to narrow. Many economists expect Americas economic growth to continue to accelerate this year.

13th June 2018 USA Interest Rate Increase

Federal Reserve increased benchmark interest rate for second time in 2018. Rising inflation strong jobs market and continuing economic strength has persuaded the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again this year.

It is likely that the Fed will need to increase interest rates another couple of times this year to stop inflation rising too fast. In addition Americans can except around three interest rate increase in 2019 as America starts to normalise its finances to an interest rate closer to the long term average for America.

Rising interest rates from where America is today is actually a sign of the strength of the American economy not a weakness. That will not make it feel less painful for people who want to borrow. Buying a home in America is set to become much more expensive which is why housing stocks have dropped.

If you are buying a house or big ticket items like a car in America now may be the time to get that loan as very soon loans in America will be much more expensive.

7th June 2018 USA Trade Gap Narrows Again In April

USA trade deficit fell to lowest since September 2017 in April. USA exports increased to a record high

Interest rates in USA will continue to rise and maybe faster than previously expected.

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