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4th January 2019 USA Created Significantly More Jobs Than Expected In December 2018
According to USA government data employers added 312000 jobs compared to forecasts of just 177000.
- USA average hourly pay increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent
Fears of an impeding recession in America seem based on wishful thinking on some economic forecasters part. It also suggests that the Federal Reserve is perfectly correct in continuing to push up interest rates in 2019.
25th December 2018 Many People Mistakenly Think Trump Is Intellectually Challenged But They Are Wrong
President Trump may or may not be taking America down the wrong track economically. I believe his tweets and outbursts are often deliberately aimed at suppressing the value of the dollar and trying to keep interest rates artificially low.
The UK economy is in danger of overheating and the Federal Reserve quite rightly are increasing interest rates which also pushes up the value of the dollar making in more difficult to export from America. If America looks to be run by a thick unstable leader this spooks the markets and holds the dollar in a lower value than if people respected the judgement of the President.
The President looks across at China and sees it suppressing its currency value with envy. He does not have the same direct power over the marketplace so he resorts to tweets and the like to hold down the value of the dollar.
Trump uses this strategy in other ways. He used it against North Korea and China militarily. People think Trump is as unhinged as they perceive the leader of North Korea to be. At the start of 2018 many people thought America could attack North Korea to defend against missile attacks on USA. They thought Trump may just be mad enough to attack North Korea. More importantly people in North Korea and China think Trump may just be mad enough to attack North Korea! As 2018 draws to a close tensions between USA and North Korea have reduced even if actual political progress has not moved that far.
- Arguments about funding The Wall on the border with Mexico and USA government shutdown
- Criticisms of the Federal Reserve leadership and
- Spats with China North Korea Canada Mexico Asia Pacific and Europe and more
All this supports Trumps core and only strategy. He wants to depress the value of the dollar at a time when the economy suggests even higher interest rates are required and the dollar should be stronger compared a basket full of other currencies.
If he fails to depress the dollar he can pivot to say that the dollar is high because people are recognising the strength of the USA economy the stock market is booming and older voters with savings get greater returns and income on money in the bank so feel wealthier. It is actually a clever economic strategy.
Trump is not stupid. He is however a bit of a one trick pony. The good news is as long as his one trick keeps working we all benefit. If it stops working because he believes his own hype then thats when we should all worry.
20th December 2018 Interest Rate Increase
Federal Reserve officials voted to hike interest rates by 0.25 percent. This is the fourth interest rate increase in America in 2018.
USA central banks key overnight lending rate increased to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent.
Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to slow or stop the rate of increasing interest rates in 2019. Economic experts are forecasting a maximum of two rate hikes next year whilst some say there will be no interest rate increases in 2019.
The Federal Reserve policymakers think the USA economy is performing well and no longer needs the Feds support of low interest rates.
3rd December 2018 USA and Chinese Leaders Agree Temporary Trade War Cessation
America and China have agreed to halt additional tariffs. Fresh talks are planned to look at the tit for tat tariffs that have already been introduced to try to lift tariffs already in force.
28th November 2018 USA Economy Growing At 3.5 Percent
- GDP increasing at 3.5 percent annualised rate according to USA Commerce Department
The USA economy continues to benefit from a 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut package by the federal government in America. Corporate America is investing a lot of the tax cut in business including vehicles plant and equipment.
Whether personal and corporate borrowing to buy will continue under an environment of increasing interest rates remains to be seen. The next interest rate rise is expected by many in December.
USA corporate profits increased by 3.3 percent last quarter
The benefits of the tax cut may dissipate in 2019 and this could slow USA economy in 2019.
14th November 2018 USA Consumer Prices Rising Faster
- USA consumer prices increased by the most in nine months in October
Ratcheting up of consumer prices is likely to lead to quicker interest rate price rises in America.
The Labor Department reports its Consumer Price Index rose 2.5 percent in the 12 months to October
Record low unemployment levels in the USA the lowest for 49 years are likely to continue in foreseeable future means that increasing prices is likely to continue unless rapid interest rate rises curtail borrowing and consumer spending.
Annual wage growth rate jumped by the largest amount in more than nine years in in October 2018.
7th November 2018 Republicans lost overall control of Congress as the House of Representatives swung to the Democrats
However Republicans are likely to increase the number of seats it holds in the Senate. This suggests President Donald Trump will now have limited ability to change his polices.
Political gridlock in America after USA midterms
He will however retain control of his ability to issue executive orders via a strengthened power base in the Senate.
- Country Risks. What Does Probable Political Gridlock In America Mean For USA and The World After USA Midterms
2nd November 2018 USA Employment and Wages In America Jump
- USA job growth jumped in October
- USA unemployment rate 3.7 percent a 49 year low
- USA wages increasing at 3.1 percent. American wages posted largest annual increase in nearly a decade.
USA interest rates likely to rise again in December to try to stop runaway inflation. If wages are increasing at fastest pace since April 2009 and you have a growing skills shortage which America does then interest rates have to rise faster to combat existing and future inflationary pressures.
Employers also increased hours for workers last month. The average workweek increased to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in September.
Workers are buying more cars and would buy more houses if there were more houses to buy and interest rates remain affordable in relation to wages.
There are currently 7.14 million job vacancies in America
USA employers are going to have to push up wages faster than 3.1 percent to retain and attract new staff.
1st November 2018 USA Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Sales Jump
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles sales jumped 15.7 percent in October compared to October 2017.
5th October 2018 USA Unemployment Rate Fell To Lowest Rate in 49 Years In September
USA unemployment rate fell in September to 49 year low of 3.7 percent.
2nd October 2018 Amazon To Raise Minimum Wage
Amazon to raise its minimum wage to 15 dollars per hour for its USA full time part time temporary and seasonal employees from next month.
The new Amazon minimum wage level will benefit more than 250000 employees in the United States as well as over 100000 Christmas seasonal employees
USA federal minimum wage is currently 7.25 dollars.
1st October 2018 USA Settles North America Free Trade Agreement Nafta Disagreement With Canada
America as signed a new trade agreement with Canada. It will give American food exporters better access to Canadian consumers. Canadian exporters will gain better access to USA car buyers. The new deal could be seen as an example of a great trade deal where both sides win. Mexico had already resolved their differences with USA.
New USA Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement Signed USMCA Trade Agreement
The new USMCA covers more than 767 billion in trade between the country signatories. The new deal will run for 16 years.
26th September 2018 Federal Reserve Increased Interest Rates
USA Federal Reserve is forecasting at least three more years of USA economic growth. To try to temper inflation the Fed has lifted the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2.00 percent to 2.25 percent. Another interest rate increase is likely in December 2018 and continue rate rises throughout 2019.
13th September 2018 Unemployment Benefit Claims Continues To Fall in America
USA citizens filing for unemployment benefits dropped last week to near a 49 year low.
- USA wage growth is accelerating
- USA Consumer Price Index CPI is running at an annualised rate of 2.7 percent so consumer prices are relatively under control.
- Trade war with China could drive up prices faster as tariffs would push up inflation in USA
Nevertheless USA interest rates likely to rise twice more in 2018 to try to cool inflationary pressures from a rapidly growing economy.
6th September 2018 USA Unemployment Is At Lowest For Decades
According to the Department of Labor job security in America has not been this good for decades. Applications for new unemployment benefits declined to the lowest level since December 1969.
USA unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 percent which is the lowest since 2000
Fewer Americans are losing their job and new jobs are being created at an incredible rate which means the American economy is going to accelerate even faster house prices will rise and interest rates will continue to climb higher to try to curb inflation.
— Accommodation Man (@AccommodationSt) August 21, 2018
8th August 2018 More USA Job Vacancies Than Unemployed People In USA
There have been more available jobs in America than unemployed workers for the last three months. According to the Labor Department in June there were around six and a half million people searching for work in June but there were more job vacancies.
Latest USA Economic Data
- Americas unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is the lowest in 18 years
- USA inflation in June was 2.9 percent
- USA wages growth 2.7 percent
- USA economy growing at around 4.1 percent
4th August 2018 The Problem With USA Jobs Market Is Not Lack Of Jobs But Lack Of Skilled Workers Or Even Just Lack Of Workers Prepared To Work
According to the USA Labor Department USA unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 percent. The likelihood of unemployment falling further is not down to lack of jobs but a lack of skills. Job vacancies in USA are still being created in massive numbers but the skills gap prevents these vacancies being filled.
There are people who could be in the USA jobs market who choose not to work for different reasons. Higher wages may tempt them back into job or to retrain to fill jobs vacancies.
USA average wages are increasing by 2.7 percent. The skills gap in America means this should accelerate creating more inflation. The lack of unskilled workers who are prepared to do unskilled jobs should also put more pressure on wages to rise faster. There is a lack of workers to fill skilled and unskilled jobs in America.
USA economy is currently growing at around 4.1 percent as per second quarter figures year on year.
USA interest rates have increased twice this year to try to keep a lid on inflationary pressures but at least one more increase is expect in 2018.
27th July 2018 US Economy Grew at Fastest Pace in Nearly Four Years in Second Quarter
USA GDP hit 4.1 percent in second quarter of 2018 according to Commerce Department.
USA exports grew by more than 9% the fastest rate since the fourth quarter of 2013
20th July 2018 Missouri Amphibious Boat Tragedy
At least 11 people have died after an amphibious duck boat carrying tourists sank on Table Rock Lake in stormy weather near Branson. Five others are missing.
3rd July 2018 More Evidence Of Expanding USA Economy
USA factory output rises faster than expected in June. The Institute for Supply Management is a trade group of purchasing managers. It has reported manufacturing activity at its highest level since February 2018.
USA manufacturing output and job creation all grew in June
19th June 2018 USA Housing Starts Jump In May
USA homebuilding starts jumped to highest since July 2007.
14th June 2018 USA Economic Data Continues To Improve
The American economy continues to develop for the better. Consumers hit the shops. USA retail sales jump in May according to USA Commerce Department.
First time applications for unemployment benefits fell last week and jobless roll call dropped to a near 44 year low.
Americas balance of trade continues to narrow. Many economists expect Americas economic growth to continue to accelerate this year.
13th June 2018 USA Interest Rate Increase
Federal Reserve increased benchmark interest rate for second time in 2018. Rising inflation strong jobs market and continuing economic strength has persuaded the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again this year.
It is likely that the Fed will need to increase interest rates another couple of times this year to stop inflation rising too fast. In addition Americans can except around three interest rate increase in 2019 as America starts to normalise its finances to an interest rate closer to the long term average for America.
Rising interest rates from where America is today is actually a sign of the strength of the American economy not a weakness. That will not make it feel less painful for people who want to borrow. Buying a home in America is set to become much more expensive which is why housing stocks have dropped.
If you are buying a house or big ticket items like a car in America now may be the time to get that loan as very soon loans in America will be much more expensive.
7th June 2018 USA Trade Gap Narrows Again In April
USA trade deficit fell to lowest since September 2017 in April. USA exports increased to a record high
- USA economic growth is accelerating
- Unemployment continues to fall
- Consumer spending is up
- Manufacturing output is increasing
Interest rates in USA will continue to rise and maybe faster than previously expected.
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