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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Financial and investment advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports
Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.
Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.
Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business
Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.
UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not
Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.
Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.
UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas
This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.
Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.
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Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017
If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.
17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent
UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.
Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.
If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest
Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!
UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.
Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.
Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.
Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.
Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.
Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.
The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.
So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.
The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.
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UK Pension Liabilities In Private Sector Public Sector and Not For Profit Sector Are Out Of Control
Why are the systems meant to protect those saving for retirement so inadequate? You might say they are underfunded rather than unfunded until you see how much underfunding there is and then you might agree that really pensions are unfunded!
Pension News Headlines Risk Analysis and Reviews
18th March 2018 In Future UK Employees Pensions Maybe Better Protected
Avoiding or abusing pension responsibilities maybe made a crime under plans to crack down on business leaders who fail to comply with their responsibilities to protect pensions and pensioners in UK.
The UK’s Insolvency Service will also be given extra powers to help protect employees from negligent corporate business decision makers who put pension schemes at risk.
22nd January 2018 UK Prime Minister May Says UK Will Stop Abuse Of Pension Schemes By Executives and Shareholders
The scandal of continuous underfunding of UK pensions and the abuse of pension provision in the UK has been highlighted once again by the collapse of the UK’s second biggest construction company Carillion. Some 28,000 pensioners are likely to face reduced pension payments due to the collapse of Carillion with perhaps a £1 billion pension hole where Carillions money should be.
Instead of addressing the pension hole Carillion executives chose to boost the performance of the firm by underfunding the pension pot paying higher dividends and paying themselves larger bonuses than they would otherwise have been entitled to. Carillion pensioners will transfer to the Pension Protection Fund after the collapse of Carillion but many pensioners many pension members out of pocket when their pension is likely to be cut.
The UK Prime Minister says the UK will clamp down on executives who line their own pockets while not protecting workers pensions.
New rules in the spring of 2018 will aim to deal with executives who threaten worker’s pensions in order to benefit personally from bigger bonuses or rewards.
However Mrs May said last year after the BHS scandal that she would tackle executive abuse to pension contributions with no progress to date.
27th June 2017 UK Pension Regulator published its report into a deal under which Philip Green paid £363m to BHS pension scheme
The Pension Regulator says the main purpose in selling BHS was to prevent taking on liability for the BHS pension scheme. The Pension Regulator says that under Mr Greens watch the BHS pension fund had moved from a surplus into a deficit. However after Mr Greens personal recent substantial contribution BHS pension fund now has a £100m surplus.
However what is clear is that pension fund risk management is highly inadequate. Periodically massive pension fund shortfalls materialise into real financial loss to pensioners. This will continue until legislation corrects the inadequacy of the present regulatory control and monitoring. Perhaps the Pension Regulator could also do its job better. It needs to show its teeth earlier.
Citibank Report 2016
According to Citibank, the 20 largest OECD countries alone owe $78 trillion to their public sector pension funds funding for pay-as-you-go and defined benefit public pensions.
Do you pay into a private pension in UK? Your employer is not! Overall private pension funding in UK is only up to around two-thirds of what is needed. Around three quarters of a trillion pounds extra is needed to fully fund private UK pensions!
Where is this money going to come from to make sure you get your pension when you retire?
Unfunded public sector pensions make up two-thirds of the £2 trillion UK pension liabilities. Private sector pension funds should hopefully become less of an issue as private pension funds or closed to new members and subsequently closed down altogether. However BHS has shown how private pension funds can throw up real problems for those saving for retirement or in retirement.
Why has the UK got saving for retirement so badly wrong?
Unfunded state pensions are the legacy of our fathers and mothers. They have failed to grasp the nettle of saving for retirement and have left a mess to the next generation in the UK whilst pocketing relatively generous pensions for themselves. This is compounded by unfunded central and local government employee pensions.
Public sector pensions are essentially like illegal Ponzi schemes where people think they are investing in their future retirement, but largely they are paying the pensions of those who are retired in UK now. They are really paying money with little more than a hope that the young of today will pay their pension when they retire. However there is no guarantee that the young of today and government’s of the future will feel inclined to pay for retired people’s lifestyles they have no hope of matching when the young eventually retire. The main risk control measure seems to be increasing the state retirement age. And so it continues.
Corrupt business leaders are also failing to pay into private pensions to fund the pension of many people in private sector funds. They seem to be hoping that they will get away with it and someone else will pick up the tab which is normally the retired person who did pay their fair share into the pension fund.
Management of risk in financial services industry.
Scores of bankers have been jailed for their part in the financial crisis but the rest of the world should hang its head in shame for its lack of demonstration of accountability for actions and inaction in face of corporate risk
Financial services industry leaders not just bankers were highly culpable for the financial crisis upon which people committed suicide and a lost their shirts. Financial leaders should lose their liberty.
The next financial crisis is just around the corner. We have seen many incidents since the financial crisis that haven’t quite been systemic risk events but they have cost financial services companys billions in fines for poor and deliberate malpractice. Financial services leaders haven’t learnt their lesson. They are just paying lip-service to good corporate governance. Only the real threat of the jail will stop the next financial crisis happening.
Not only have the culprits for the financial crisis got away with it, they have gone on to be leaders in the financial services industry or other leading businesses.
From leading bankers to leading politicians to leading regulators to leading credit rating agency leaders to leading central bankers they have all prospered despite the financial crisis and many have gone from causing the financial crisis to other positions of power without being held to account for their actions or inaction.
There has been limited tightening of global financial services regulations but the ultimate sanction of losing your liberty is still highly unlikely. It still more likely that financial services leaders will depart their employer with handsome pay-offs and pension packages rather than serving time in a USA or UK jail.
Until individual financial services industry leaders face and are convicted of criminal prosecutions business leaders will continue to lead their employers to hefty financial penalties and even liquidation. If you kill someone at work, you at least have some real chance of going to jail. If you kill a corporate entity, you will almost certainly not go to jail in UK and USA. Appearing in court to face charges is not the same as losing your liberty for 7 to 10 years.
European countries have been a little more robust at jailing the guilty but only a few can be proud of their resolve to improve corporate governance in practice.
Financial Services Industry Risk News Headlines Industry Analysis and Risk Reviews
Pick up the latest financial services news opinions reviews and jobs
20th June 2017 SFO charges former Barclays chief executive John Varley and three others Roger Jenkins Tom Kalaris and Richard Boath. After a five-year investigation into the £12bn bailout fundraising recapitalisation of Barclays bank by Qatar
Barclays strategy was to go to Qatar for money instead of UK government. The bank and the ex-bank executives will officially respond to SFO charges on 3rd July. The charges include conspiracy to commit fraud by false representation in relation to a fundraising in June 2008. The ex bank executives are facing potential jail of up to 10 years if convicted.
Other charges for some of those accused and the bank include providing unlawful financial assistance through a loan.
Barclays said it was considering its position in relation to these developments and awaiting further details of the charges.
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How can CEOs senior management teams risk managers business owners and entrepreneurs make the right decisions more often? Find out whats on the horizon. Understand better the business risks acting on your business right now.
How do business enterprise key decision makers use limited resources more cost effectively and more successfully ?
The pace of business change is increasing. How many people will drive for a living in the next decade? How many people will work in warehouses in next 10 years? What new risks are emerging for businesses when the dramatic changes of 4th Industrial Revolution expected soon are commonly in place?
Cyber crime or error is just one of the threats. How should a business like Amazon react if they are threatened by a cyber criminals who say they have the capability to shut down its warehouse and distribution drones! They presumably have not but even if it was never possible how would Amazons share price react? What will this mean for Amazon’s ability to borrow to invest in its future?
Solve the big questions being asked of your business
Get the answers you need to know what to do next that will have the best net positive impact on your business. What are the critical risk factors you need to manage? How viable are your existing business opportunities?
Some corporate risks are mature and well known but how does YOUR business manage them in the most cost effective way? Other corporate risks are just emerging. Do you know which ones present the biggest threats and opportunities for your business?
If you know what the key risks are do YOU oversee the impact on your business or have you delegated it?
Do others in your organisation want to seize a business advantage of your competitors as much as you do? Do your competitors want any of your existing business revenue?
No you can not do everything yourself but are you creating the right risk management culture to ensure that others are of the same mind as you?
If you are not changing your failing!
Do you currently have a sustainable business model?
Have you assessed and managed your competitive advantages to squeeze the best out of your existing resources in terms of performance?
Do you have a Business Enterprise Risk Management Road Map to make achieving your business objectives more likely?
What role should enterprise risk management play in business and not for profit organisations? Do you like enterprise risk management ERM and want to learn more. Looking for practical enterprise risk management solutions for your business?
Leadership perspective to enterprise risk management
Working with senior managers executives business owners and entrepreneurs to embed practical enterprise risk management ERM solutions.
Enterprise risk management will not provide any net benefit to the organisation if its leaders don’t buy in to the principles the benefits of risk assessment process and the framework the best performing companies conform to.
Business leaders must agree the risk appetite and risk tolerance of the organisation before the risk assessment process can begin
The risk assessment process is a good management tool but it can be nullified corrupted and cost the organisation money and performance if it doesn’t operate within and support the risk culture of the business.
Enterprise wide perspective on corporate risks
Strategic operational and project risks all need to be included in the risk management framework and risk assessment process to provide consistency of business decision-making to improve performance of the business.