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Latest Bank Of America Survey Of The World’s Biggest Fund Managers Suggest Central Bank’s Have Less Pressure On Raising Interest Rates
The opinions of fund managers appears to be that in the middle of 2021 they think it is less likely now that the global economy will grow so fast it will need to be controlled. If they are right, there will be less pressure to raise interest rates cause global inflation pressure is now easing.
As many fund managers are normally wrong as they are right – at best – so their opinions should not been seen as accurate forecasting for the global economy. However, COVID infections are still out of control and global vaccination percentages are very poor so a cap on global growth will be in place for at least the next 12 months. This will limit global growth and therefore mitigate global inflation pressure. Central banks can probably breath more easily in that there is less pressure to push up interest rates.
Recent record rises of inflation in the USA suggests that America should be increasing interest rates now as it takes months for interest rate rises to control inflation. The Federal Reserve’s argument is like the Bank Of England argument that record rises in inflation are due to short term lockdown opening pressures on prices that will dissipate after things settle back to normal working and this will slow the rate of inflation naturally. This argument could be right – or national policy makers are behind the curve of what is real and enduring and will be forced to raise interest rates sooner than they expected or wanted.
Target inflation for many central banks is 2 percent – seen as healthy rate of inflation. Above this creates pressure to increase interest rates. Below this creates pressure to reduce interest rates. Inflation in USA and UK in June 2021:
- USA 5.4 percent and exhibiting rising trend up from 5.0 percent in May
- UK 2.5 percent and exhibiting rising trend up from 2.1 percent in May
- Eurozone is around 2.0 percent
Bank Of England Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe, said on 14th July 2021 that rise in UK inflation is but a hiccup on the road to UK economic recover as the UK unwinds at different speeds across the 4 nations of the UK. The Bank Of England sees the recent increases in consumer demand and some restrictions in supply producing temporary high UK inflation rate. It does need see the conditions for increased demand and restricted supply persisting and are content to ride out the current bumps in the road to UK economic recovery from the pandemic without responding with an increase in central bank interest rate.
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Developed World Will Be Watching England’s Gamble On Its Exit Strategy From Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown
Underdeveloped countries can only dream of having two thirds of its adult population being vaccinated against COVID-19, as England is fortunate to have. The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has decided to risk it all on removing most mandatory pandemic restrictions on 19th July, if by the 12th July the statistics remain as they are:
- Infection levels are rising exponentially and likely to increase further post 19th July.
- Numbers of people requiring hospital treatment are rising but the link between getting infected and needing to go to hospital has weakened substantially. The UK may now be entering a phase where COVID-19 causes pressure on the health system at levels normally seen in large flu outbreak rather than totally swamping hospitals, allowing millions of people with other illnesses to still be treated.
- The numbers of deaths are rising but largely involve unvaccinated people and the numbers are small.
- Despite UK’s high infection levels countries like Germany are still going to let people from Britain in especially if they have been vaccinated.
- The Prime Minister is expecting business leaders to manage the risks of virus spreading and impacting on their business. Ryan Air, for example, have already announced that it does not matter where you fly to you will have to wear a mask.
By 19th July 2021 all UK adults will have been offered at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Those that choose not to be vaccinated have that right, but also the personal responsibility for their outcome in a society which will have very high levels of the Covid-19 virus circulating in every part of the country. Hospitalisations and deaths will increase as a result of not being vaccinated and the vaccines are not 100 percent effective, but not at levels seen previously during the pandemic.
Essentially the UK Prime Minister has decided that on balance it is better to unlock society in England during most school holidays in England, in the height of the warmest part of the year, rather than in the Autumn or Winter when hospitals are under greatest pressure.
At present in England under 18 year old’s are not vaccinated. The risk of serious illness to this age grouping is vannishingly small. Over 12s may get the vaccine in future but for now they will not be vaccinated, unlike in some developed countries.
England’s COVID-19 pandemic unlocking strategy on 19th July 2021 is effectively that it now wants as many people as possible to either get the vaccine or get the virus by the end of summer 2021 so that via the vaccine or natural antibodies from catching the virus will provide protection to society in the Autumn and Winter. Over 40s and clinically vulnerable will all have been offered double doses of a vaccine plus those under 40 suffer less on catching the virus. If the experts are right, this will mean that herd immunity will enable England to continue without another lockdown after summer, assuming that another vaccine resistant variant is not released on the world and England.
If the unlocking strategy in England works then others can follow when they have vaccinated at least two thirds of their population and the world will be able to live with covid-19 like it lives with the flu, probably forever. If it does not work? The political ramifications will swamp Boris Johnson at the next election in a few years and the UK will slide into recession again by end of 2021 – cause the only short term solution will be another lockdown.
Signs are that England’s lockdown exit strategy will work due to the current effectiveness of the vaccines but there is no doubt it is a big gamble. The rewards are also great if it works cause the UK economy will begin to soar in 2021 like it has perhaps never done before.
Why You Should Be Worried About The Future Of Booming UK Economy?
In an interview with the BBC, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane who votes on UK interest rate setting policy by MPC, astonishingly says the UK economy could see economic growth rate in the double digit realm!
He cautions business leaders and UK consumers by also saying increasing UK inflation may at some point move the UK from boom to bust. The UK experienced uncontrollable inflation rates in 1970s and 1980s and after high inflation rates take hold on any economy it is extremely difficult to bring it under control. The chief economist thinks the UK should ease up on economic stimulus but by reducing printing of money through UK quantitative easing QE programme, not by increasing UK interest rates on debt that increase the cost of living in the UK and the cost of investing in business particularly small businesses.
Current and immediate future inflation risks are transitory as the UK recovers from the pandemic. UK prices will increase but the rate of inflation will fluctuate up and down. The Bank of England is not concerned enough to raise UK interest rates in short or medium term. The Bank Of England thinks the UK is no where near runaway inflation rates. It is forecasting inflation rate above the 2 percent target for the UK’s central bank by end of 2021. In 2022 and 2023, the Bank of England expects inflation to fall back to its 2 percent target. If the Bank of England is right, UK interest rates are not going to rise before 2024! Remember our most recent economic history includes economists worrying about inflation being too low! Countries like Japan have fought hard to increase inflation without success! Deflation brings falling prices, but also falling income and rising unemployment. Between deflation and inflation, inflation is the better of two evils! Although UK inflation doubled in April 2021 it is still only 1.5 percent – below Bank of England target.
“Another member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committe MPC, Gertjan Vlieghe, is reported as saying on 27th May 2021 he does not anticipate the first UK interest rate hike until well into 2022, with modest further increases thereafter. There is only one way UK interest rates are going to go now – after recent fears they could turn negative from record all time low of 0.1% – and that’s up. In normal circumstances it is likely that UK interest rates would rise in 2021, however the people in the know at the Bank Of England have all said this May that despite expected record economic expansion in the UK, interest rates are not going to rise until mid-2022 at the earliest, and arguable not until 2024, if everything in the UK economy goes as currently forecast by Bank Of England. You will never get a better time to get cheap money to invest in the future of your business so if you have dreams of starting a business or want to expand your business now is this time.”BusinessRiskTV
Lloyds Bank Business Barometer reveals in May 2021 that UK business leaders are more confident in the UK economy now that at any other time since 2016. The UK economy is on course for its strongest growth in decades, perhaps ever.
In the USA, the economy is not only returning to good health quickly, the longer term looks set to grow electrically fast in 2022 and beyond too.
New USA unemployment benefit claimants plunged to their lowest levels since March 2020 – pre-pandemic times. American employers are scrambling to recruit new employees which should see USA unemployment fall relatively fast. Low unemployment underpins rapid sustainable economic growth. When the American economy grows the global economy grows.
“The New York Times has reported that President Joe Biden is planning to seek $6 trillion in federal spending for 2022. If agreed this will boost economic growth in America through 2022 and beyond.”BusinessRiskTV
European stocks hit an all-time high on 28th May 2021. Rising confidence in the recovery of business and the economy in Europe are pushing up the value of European shares.
The number of new jobs available in the UK has not been this high for nearly 7 years. Or to put it another way, the opportunity to find a new job in the UK has not been this high since mid 2014. It is easy to surround yourself with doom-monger messages from the media that drag you down, but it you change your risk perspective slightly you can be bolstered inspired and motivated to see the massive business and personal opportunities opening up in the UK marketplace. Have more confidence – the UK economy is coming back!
The UK Office for National Statistics ONS released new figures on 18th May 2021 highlighting the growing opportunity for the UK economy to continue to recover from the pandemic and for people in the UK to find a new job.
James Reed, chief executive of the Reed employment agency, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme the firm was advertising 275000 new jobs in the hospitality sector in May 2021. This is the most amount of hospitality job vacancies advertised in any month since since February 2008.
More UK economy health figures released on May 2021 support the recovering strength of UK economy and businesses:
- The reopening of non-essential businesses in April led to massive month-on-month jump in spending in the retail sector in the UK. UK retail sales jumped 9.2% in April according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Fashion retailing soared by nearly 70 percent compared with March 2021.
- IHS Markit/CIPS also unveiled preliminary figures demonstrating a strong UK recovery following the partial unlocking of some businesses. Businesses expanded at record rates including manufacturing and services businesses.
- Online sales remain very strong though slight tail off as shoppers returned to the High Street.
- UK manufacturing is growing at its fastest rate for almost 30 years in May 2021. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD says the UK is likely to grow 7.2% in 2021, up from its March projection of 5.1% UK economic growth. The UK’s growth is set to be the fastest among the large rich countries, the OECD says. UK house prices rose 10.9% year-on-year in May according to the Nationwide which is normally relatively conservative in house price movement compared to the biggest lender in the UK which is Lloyds bank. Nationwide says the current level of UK house price is the fastest in 7 years.
- UK construction industry activity surged in May at fastest rate in nearly 7 years according to IHS/CIPS Construction Purchasing Managers index figures. UK housebuilding in particular raced forward to try to take advantage of booming UK housing market.
- The UK economy as a whole in May grew at its fastest rate since records began 23 years ago.
Although new variants are still a key threat to the continued rapid expansion of the UK economy, no evidence yet that a further unlocking of the UK economy will be delayed beyond 21st June 2021, according to the UK Prime Minister.
On the 1st June the UK government has formally announced zero coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours. The 31st of May was a Bank Holiday effectively creating a long weekend. The figures announced by the UK government immediately after any weekend are normally lower, but the milestone of zero deaths from coronavirus is important for businesses. It highlights that although infections are rising due to variants of the virus deaths from the virus are not. The UK needs to open up the economy fully and manage the risks from the virus. We are no longer in the position where the balance of risks required businesses to close. There should be no delay in the reopening of the reminder of businesses closed to limit the spread of the virus. The number of infections may well increase but if deaths do not then people in the UK need to manage the risks without closing down businesses.
Previous Industrial Revolutions Brought New Machines Electricity and Computers But The 4th Industrial Revolution 4IR Has The Potential To Bring New Thinking New Power and New Ways Of Doing Business For Better Life On Earth For All If We Have That Ambition
As many parts of the world like Japan, for example, cannot produce enough people to support society due to changing demographics, the Covid pandemic gave us time to pause and think about how we make a better world to help solve world poverty, climate change, inequality and a general lack of ambition to do things better.
The best that recent generations can say is that although the world is not at peace, there has not been another and final World War 3! Whilst this is a fundamental ask of our leaders it is really a pretty low bar.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, which could have become worse than WW3 if the banking system collapsed, world business leaders seem to have lacked ambition. Instead they have pocketed bonuses whilst in many cases continued to destroy shareholder value, as is still the case in some of the world’s biggest banks even after the 2008 global financial crisis.
The world’s banks will now come back to strength after a long period of existential crisis. However, they will prosper largely through ability to cut more costs including retail bank branches and staff, and their expanding clients wealth rather than real banking innovation. Banks are critical to future economic growth and growth of businesses as they supply the money to make new ideas work in practice. They can boost growth. However, if they withdraw their money it can also stop change.
Examples in the environmental protection world and world of politics include Scotland. Banks will continue to clamp down on their clients poor environmental protection performance as the general public increasingly moves onto greener policies and expected governance standards. This will also have massive political implications. In the UK the Green Party in Scotland has gained more seats in the Scottish parliament. The ruling SNP party does not have enough seats to push through its policies on its own and needs to garner Green party support for SNP policies which include issuing new licences for more oil and gas exploration. How does an independent Scotland materialise if oil and gas exploration is not supported by the Green party in Scotland and lack of investment from banks keen not to blot their copy book on environmental protection.
Yes countries around the world need to look at environmental protection. However environmental protection should not just be about the climate. It should be about the whole environment we live in. An holistic approach is needed. This includes equal access to good education, health and opportunities to grow.
4IR presents an new exciting opportunity to grow economy and businesses faster not seen seen the 1950s during the 3rd Industrial Revolution. The 1950s was a period of great wealth creation and social change instigation following WW2.
We may be at peak global Covid pandemic infection levels in May 2021. The world as a whole is recovering economically even as infection levels reach new record highs. When the world does slip off the peak and starts to recover, only our lack of innovation and creativity will hold us back from a better world post-Covid pandemic. Our lack of ambition may stunt progress and an opportunity for a better world will be missed.
Our world leaders may miss the opportunities to grow better and faster out of the Covid pandemic. Make sure your business does not with a more holistic business risk management approach to strategic, operational and project decision making.
UK Construction Industry Has Recovered From The Pandemic With The Exception Of Shortage Of Labour and Materials
UK construction industry output increased in April 2021 almost at same level as March 2021 which was a 6 year record according to IHS Markit/ CIPS construction Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI figures
The UK construction industry has grown in 10 of last 11 months and this during the worst economic period since WW2 due to the pandemic. New orders in the construction industry rose to their highest level since September 2014. The rate of job creation across the construction is running at highest level since December 2015.
World’s Largest Steelmaker Reports Strongest Quarter In A Decade
ArcelorMittal reported higher than expected first-quarter earnings. Core profit for quarter (EBITDA) was $3.24 billion, more than three times more year on year and higher than the $2.97 billion average forecast in a company poll of experts.
“We are seeing a continuation of the positive market dynamics of the fourth quarter and have been steadily bringing back production in line with the demand recovery, which is supported by low inventory levels through the value chain.”CEO Aditya Mittal, 6th May 2021
The group said it had benefited from a strong recovery in steel demand led by the auto industry, resulting in higher steel shipments and improved margins.
This good news story from the world’s biggest steelmaker indicates that despite rising covid cases around the world including Asia and Latin America, the global economic recovery is already building momentum.
Can Enterprise Risk Management Work Without Strict Legislation Enforcing Level Playing Field Accommodating Greed and Corporate Social Responsibility In One Marketplace?
The birth and death of the European Super League ESL is an excellent example of the failure of corporate social responsibility and is a lesson for other industries
The fact that the UK parliament would have enacted new laws to stop ESL was a big nail in the coffin of ESL project. Other business leaders, fund managers and business owners without legislative control will similarly pursue personal greed and enterprise risk management will be shown lip service.
The financial services must continue to suffer poor inefficient use of money stockpiled to pay for risk owners greedy mistakes. Even in 2021 after 2008 financial crisis the worlds biggest banks are destroying shareholder value and have been forced to raise billions of pounds in 2021 to pay for their most recent enterprise risk management failure even though they have been audited by biggest accountants and profess to have excellent enterprise risk management systems. God help us if the Wild West returns to financial services industry – the Covid pandemic would look like a vicars tea party!
The biggest story in the financial services marketplace in 2021 is the collapse of Archegos Capital. Archegos Capital was a family financial trading business that was largely outside of regulatory control but used by some of the world’s biggest banks like UBS and Credit Suisse to make more money for the banks. Archegos Capital collpased in March 2021 wrecking $10 billion worth of losses on world’s biggest banks.
- Nomura suffered its worst business performance in a decade as a result.
- UBS losses are close to a billion dollars.
- Credit Suisse lost 5 billion dollars and had to raise finance of 2 billion dollars to survive.
Do you think UBS, Credit Suisse, Nomura and their auditors, the biggest accountants in the world, were proud of the governance risk and compliance GRC at these banks, prior to March 2021?
Credit Suisse has seen two executives and one board member exit over the Archehos Capital scandal. New chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio, previously CEO at Lloyds bank, said he will implement a risk management culture that “reinforces the importance of risk management” and “focuses on personal responsibility and accountability.” Did Credit Suisse not already have good risk management culture and personal accountability?
UK Business and Economy Review Spring 2021
EY Item Club forecasts at end of April 2021 that the UK economy will grow 6.8 percent in 2021 which is an increase in UK economic growth rate it forecast in January 2021 of 5 percent. This would mark the fastest annual growth in national income in UK since 1941.
The EY Item Club also predicted that UK unemployment will rise less than previously forecast. It expects UK unemployment to rise to 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 – down from the 7 percent jobless rate it was predicting in January. UK unemployment rate was 4 percent before the pandemic.
Deloitte has reported at end of April 2021 that UK consumer confidence is at the highest point measured ever in the first 3 months of 2021.
Lloyds Bank, the biggest mortgage lender in the UK, said it experienced its best month for mortgages since 2008 in March as the UK housing market continues to boom. Any booming UK housing market means extra expenditure on home and garden improvements shortly afterwards. UK house prices increased at the fastest rate since 2004 in April 2021 according mortgage lender Nationwide building society figures, and are increasing at 7.1 percent year on year.
The CEO of Barclays bank thinks the UK economy is about to experience its biggest economic boom since 1948.
Big 4 accountants Deloitte’s poll of UK Chief Financial Officers CFOs between 17th March and 30th March 2021 found that businesses are planning to increase recruitment and investment in their business. UK big businesses are now confident in their profitability over the next year. Most expect their business to return to near normal working between July and September 2021.
A BBC report at the end of April 2021 says bars and restaurants in the UK are struggling to recruit enough staff and some may not be able to reopen on 17th May 2021 as a result. If they do open they may need to restrict opening hours due to lack of staff. In England bars and restaurants have been allowed to serve food and drink outdoors since 12th April but indoor dining is not permitted until 17th May at earliest.
The Federation Of Small Businesses FSB in UK latest survey of small business owners or managers found that UK small business leaders are now the most confident in UK economy than they have been for 6 years.
New research by University College London UCL estimates the UK could reach herd immunity by 12th April 2021. Experts at UCL estimated that by 12th April enough people will have been vaccinated or have had and recovered from Covid to produce herd immunity effect that will protect the rest of the community from catching the virus.
In a March 2021 survey of consumers by LV= they report that 8% of people in the UK saved more than £10000 over the period of the pandemic. Around 20% of wealthier people in the UK have saved more than more than £10000 over the past year due to coronavirus restrictions curbing spending opoortunities.
Around three-quarters of people in UK said they had been able to make some savings on outgoings such as reduced costs from commuting, childcare or eating out. On average, these reduced outgoings had saved people nearly £5,500 over the past 12 months. If you were in the majority of working population in UK who could actually continue to work then it is highly likely you have saved thousands of pounds or paid of debt like mortgages or credit cards. If you have been furloughed or lost earning ability then you will not have benefited financially. However, the fact remains that millions of people in the UK are financially better off due to the pandemic and this money can now be used to boost the UK economy over the next couple of years.
UK consumers have paid off around a third of their non-mortgage debts between March 2020 and March 2021 according to Experian. The Bank of England estimates that UK consumers have saved £125 billion during the pandemic.
In addition the Bank of England has set interest rates at an all time low of 0.1%. Borrowing money in the UK has never been cheaper. If you are able to earn money you are likely to be able to borrow more money and ridiculously low interest rates. Such borrowing will also boost the UK economy over the next couple of years.
The UK government may well invest heavily in UK infrastructure. This also piles new money into the UK economy which could have longer term growth opportunities for UK business leaders as well as short term job creation and business growth.
If you were ever thinking about investing in the UK, in your UK business opportunities or your UK lifestyle enhancement, there has never been a better time than now to fill your boots with cheap money!
The Bank of England BoE reports that banks are preparing to increase supply of mortgage lending by the most since the BoE survey began in 2007. Unsecured lending by UK lenders is set to expand by the most since 2013. As people change their nesting arrangements they spend on furnishing their new nest. UK consumers have easy access to record cheap borrowing from lenders falling over themselves to lend more money at rock bottom interest rates.
Idiotic Commercial Property Owners Should Follow Action Of Hammerson And Cut Retailers Rents
Instead of lying empty or losing income forever commercial property owners should be helping High Street retailers by reducing their operational costs. Hammerson, which owns Birmingham’s Bullring Shopping Centre, London’s Brent Cross Shopping Centre, Reading’s The Oracle Shopping Centre and Leeds Victoria Shopping Centre, has cut retail rents by around 30 percent.
In addition commercial property owners need to look at turning commercial property into residential dwellings to bring more homes into the heart of UK cities. UK cities need to stay alive and more people living in heart of cities will create new opportunities for small to medium sized commercial outlets that remain.
International Monetary Fund IMF Reports UK To Grow At Fastest Rate Since 1988
The IMF is forecasting that the UK economy will grow by 5.3 percent in 2021 and by 5.1 percent in 2022, which would be the fastest rate of economic growth for UK since 1988.
OpenTable reports that on the very first day restaurants could open up for outside dining in England, British restaurant reservations jumped to 79% of their level on the same Monday in 2019 pre-pandemic. Given most restaurants do not have outside eating areas this is phenomenal performance. Given also that it was below 10 degrees it also shows diners are prepared to spend to be uncomfortable eating at restaurant. Just imagine how busy restaurants are going to be from 17th May onwards!
Online job adverts recovered to pre-pandemic levels on 8th April 2021 as employers returned to recruiting. Source: Adzuna for the Office of National Statistics ONS.
The American economy grew 6.4% in first quarter of 2021. This was the second-fastest gross domestic product growth rate since the third quarter of 2003 and followed a rate of 4.3% in the final quarter of 2020. China’s economy has recovered from the pandemic. Both the USA and China’s economic position supports UK economic growth.
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UK Business and Economy Update
Bank of England has revised its forecast for economic growth for 2021 upwards from 5 percent.
“The Bank of England says the UK will not grow 5 percent in 2021 as it forecast at the beginning of 2021. It now thinks the UK economy will grow at an electrically-fast 7.25 percent in 2021.”BusinessRiskTV 6th May 2021
The Bank Of England also thinks UK unemployment will be held relatively under control by end of 2021 at 5.5%. It was 4 percent prior to pandemic. 5.5 percent can be considered a win given the unprecedented lockdown of the UK economy due to the pandemic. At the beginning of the 2021 many expected UK unemployment to double to close to 8 percent due to Covid pandemic.
The Bank of England will keep UK interest rate at 0.1 percent an all time low so you have access to the cheapest cost of money ever. Most money experts do not anticipate UK interest rates rising before September 2022 and then only by 0.15 percent. In other words UK interest rates are expected to remain at or near record low levels for a considerable period of time.
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