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Retail sales in UK have bounced back V shaped style to prepandemic levels
Think back and look back a couple of months. The human pain from lost lives drove a fear in the retail marketplace. As tragic deaths grew retail sales collapsed in the UK. Some retailers benefited like supermarkets and food sales but non food sales shrank painfully.
Now food sales remain strong but non food sales are coming back. The total retail sales data from the UK Office for National Statistics say that there has been a V shaped recovery in total retail sales. The UK economy is built on retail sales so maybe a V shaped recovery in UK economy as a whole is on track by October.
Around 80 percent of UK economic growth is on the back of the UK consumer. If UK consumers back the retail sector they back a V shaped economic recovery in the UK. What this means for you is that you are more likely to keep your job get a pay rise and sustain your lifestyle in the UK.
June retail sales saw the second consecutive month of strong growth following record declines in March and April. The rises seen in May and June have roughly brought total sales back in line with February levels prepandemic lockdownBusinessRiskTV
Oodles of cash has been saved over the pandemic in the UK by UK consumers. It is time for big ticket items to be purchased to boost your lifestyle and the UK economy. Dine out this August to get 50 percent off your meals and save a few more jobs!
A V shaped economic recovery in UK by October is doable if you wash your hands socially distance and spend spend spend!
Successful Innovation Is Not About Innovation It Is About Application Of Good Ideas
Many people could and do have great ideas. Having great ideas is not being innovative. Being innovative is having ideas that you make work in the real world.
Tesla trajectory involved a good solid idea then looking at what you need to do to make it work well. At each stage of Tesla and now SpaceX business development they have looked at what they need to do next to help them achieve the final goal. Tesla and SpaceX did not have the best business solutions best brains or best tools to make the next stage of their development work well.
Several bigger better more valuable more advanced businesses jumped onboard journey that probably kept the vision alive and took it to the next level. Not every great business which jumped on board stayed for the whole ride and perhaps lost out as a result. Where Tesla and SpaceX are now suggests that they did not lose out on the collaboration. They seem to have gained from an injection of money knowhow and partnership.
What helps is an inspirational leader and visionary with resolve. Even the wrong Tweet from such a leader can knock billions off a business valuation never mind that persons departure or loss from the business. This creates a number of key risks in itself. If Musk was no longer at the helm what would happen to the business valuation?
These two great companies are exposed to the key person risk in an existential way. How do you protect a business from such an inordinately high risk? Musk is a Tech Rockstar!
However the growth side of the equation is the main feature of this article. Musk has had to cope with people being more interested in their battery technology than the car. Like many of the worlds products just now its battery technology that holds back progress. Even now Tesla is valued so highly not because they make cars or software but because they are innovative and make their innovations work well.
Often Tesla and SpaceX know they do not have the best in the market. However they position their products and services in the market and then make improvement after improvement until they are the best in the market. Many in the automotive and aerospace marketplace have had better ideas but they did not make them work for them and the marketplace.
SpaceX is rumoured to be seeking to build on their most recent successful mission to the International Space Station. SpaceX wants more capital another billion dollars to take the next leap forward on Musk vision. The capital raising mission is based on a SpaceX valuation of 44 billion dollars. Not bad for a guy with a good idea about a battery!
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Fighting the virus is easier than fighting change in business practices and ways of working before us
Putting sauce back into the bottle will be easier than putting things back together. Even if it was the right thing to do which it is not it is now impossible to return to normal. Clever politicians and business leaders will and should seize the moment to restart business for a better economic future.
UK employers are being told to take socially responsible decisions and listen to the concerns of their staff. Employers and employees should come to a pragmatic agreement about their working arrangements. However UK employers should also be looking at what is and is not going to work like before. Decisions made by some business leaders now have the potential to destroy previously successful businesses. Likewise there will be new opportunities for the flexible the innovative and the creative business leaders in UK.
Can work be normal after the virus?
After the economic disaster of the pandemic the recovery will not take us back to where we used to be. Nor should it. If we waste the lessons learnt from the pandemic the many lives lost and jobs made obsolete will have been in vein. Some jobs are never coming back not just because of the long term threat from the virus but due to the decisions business leaders are and will make about the future for their business.
- Maybe we needed the virus to save the planet? Many governments including UK Germany and China are pumping billions into ways to protect the environment including renewable energy production and energy saving initiatives such as grants for improved home insulation. Without the virus significant amounts of energy would have been wasted and opportunities on renewable energy product missed or at least delayed.
- Maybe we needed the virus to change how we live and work? Industry 4.0 4th industrial revolution is now coming even faster with the adoption of new technology to develop and produce new products and services. There needs to be upskilling of workforce to meet the new needs of the workplace and its customers but without the virus inertia was more prevalent than innovation.
- Maybe we needed the virus to change political priorities across the globe. This like most risks is a double edged sword. Political change can be both beneficial and obstructive to life and business enhancement. The pandemic will throw up both new threats and opportunities that can be life affirming and life destroying.
Without a vaccine we cannot go back to normal at work or socially. With a vaccine in will take months perhaps years to return to normal even if that is what we choose for ourselves. However things are never going to be the same as they were in 2019 in business or in life.
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Business leaders need to continue their innovation reinvention and repurposing of their business. The coronavirus imposed better ways of working and opening new revenue streams on some businesses as well as inflicting death and destruction of lives and businesses. It is time to harness these creative investments to turbo charge the introduction of the 4th Industrial Revolution to improve lives and businesses.
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Andy Haldane also sits on Bank of England interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee MPC
If the UK consumer spends he and she can drag us out of the coronavirus pandemic economic hole.BusinessRiskTV
If the UK continues to recover on a similar path as lockdown measures ease further the loss in annual GDP could be far lower than first feared. More like 8 percent contraction instead of 17 percent forecast in May.
The greatest risk to health economic growth and business now is unemployment when government financial support dissipates. The UK consumer must pick up the slack by spend spend spending at the same time as the UK government invests massively in UK infrastructure.
- The number of deaths registered in the UK over one week to 19th June has fallen below the five year average for the first time since mid March just before UK lockdown measures were instigated. Death rates in UK are now back to normal prepandemic virus.
UK Savers Stash Billions Of Pounds Away In Savings and Not Borrowed Anything Like Normal
UK consumers are coping well with economic impact of coronavirus but now it is time to spend to save jobs and NHS!
In addition the cost of borrowing for consumers has fallen. The typical rate UK borrowers are borrowing on personal loans has fallen to just over 5 percent compared to around 7 percent prepandemic. Credit card interest rates have fallen slightly too.
Many UK consumers have taken advantage of ability to take payment holidays on their loans and credit cards.
Put together it means that on average UK consumers have economically weathered the coronavirus storm well. As the UK economy reopens it will stand a good chance of recovering if these UK consumers start spending again to save jobs and grow the economy faster.
Business Life After Lockdown Risk Analysis and Risk Management With BusinessRiskTV
In March saving lives and the NHS was about staying at home. Now saving many more lives over decades and the NHS budget is about the UK consumer businesses and government spending much much more. Poverty will kill many more lives than the virus.
Learn how others are developing strategies to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Access help for your business to recover from coronavirus economic nightmare. Pick up practical tips to survive and prosper.
24th June 2020 It is right that health professionals are concerned about risks of second wave of infections in UK. Changing to 1 metre plus rule from 2 metres is more risky in some perhaps many circumstances but mainly if business leaders and consumers do not act sensibly.
Some people will not act sensibly. This will result in spikes in infection or hotspots. Realistically they could even be fatal mistakes. However the balance of risk has changed in the UK.
It is now more likely that people will die early for decades due to an economic depression in the UK. Rampant unemployment is now more likely than rampant spread of the coronavirus in the UK. Reasonable safety precautions include perspex screens personal protective equipment face coverings change in shift patterns control of numbers inside table service only apps more intensive cleaning of toilets and all surfaces touched frequently passing customer details to manager should there be outbreak.
There are lots of things to control the spread of the virus. However there is little to prevent a depression in the UK that will impact on deaths and financial health for decades. If you miss a significant part of your education in lasts a lifetime in terms of wellbeing and financial health.
21st June 2020 Improved Productivity Could Be A Benefit To Come Out Of Pandemic
A lasting benefit of the coronavirus pandemic could be massively improved productivity in the UK and perhaps around the world. Such a great legacy would have to be tempered with much higher painful unemployment levels compared to prepandemic.
The UK has suffered from poor productivity for many years. Poor productivity kills wealth creation. Many businesses preferred to employ someone they could easily sack if business demand fell instead of investing in equipment and more efficient ways of doing more business.
Sadly many businesses will have discovered from the pandemic that they do not need as many people to maintain an acceptable level of business performance or profit. They will make many redundant. However productivity is likely to improve.
This means for workers and society that there needs to be a turbocharging of the 4th Industrial Revolution. From the pandemic many business leaders should now realise how much time they wasted. Around 42 percent of people worked from home during the pandemic compared to 12 percent in the previous norm.
Returning to the old norm of working prepandemic would be a waste of the pain suffered by businesses and the economy.BusinessRiskTV
At least a blend of homeworking and office working would be more cost efficient. It would create easier commuter hours and speed up business activity on the roads whilst protecting the environment. This is a low hanging fruit opportunity business leaders must seize from the pandemic.
Harder is more innovation and creativity to bring forward the 4th Industrial Revolution. When the pandemic hit many business leaders were highly innovative.
Why does it take a pandemic to turn innovative thought processes into actual business change?BusinessRiskTV
We must not stop innovating. More importantly we must turn innovative juices into actual business change. This is important not just to make businesses more productive and more profitable but to create new jobs for the people who no longer have jobs to return to post pandemic.
The UK had a skills problem prepandemic. Post pandemic its a skills problem that is a threat to the economy social structure and the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. The UK government and businesses need to invest in new ways of working. Unemployed need to be retrained as many old jobs will never regenerate.
The UK economy can recover from the pandemic. However it could come out of the pandemic stronger than it went into it if we together invest in our future. Instead of shrinking our expenditure and our ambition we must expand our creativity our skills and our budget.
Money is unlikely to be this cheap for another hundred years. What we have spent to get through this crisis is eye watering. However now is not the time to rein in expenditure.
We must go all in. The gamble is that we pick the wrong horses. Coming together was a feature of the pandemic. It will be just as important for the recovery period. Unavoidable mistakes were made during the pandemic. We must work together to ensure we minimise the mistakes during the recovery phase.
18th June 2020 The Americas and Brazil Continue To Threaten The Global Economy Most With Coronavirus
Brazil will soon break through one million infections. It is already the second most infected country in the world with the second highest number of deaths officially recorded from the virus. It is a threat to neighbouring South American countries the Americas and the world economy.
The Americas as a whole is merging into a block of severe infection. Many other parts including Europe have presented severe infection and death rates but whereas Europe has put a lid on the pandemic the Americas is bursting with new infections and deaths.
- USA thinks it is out of the woods but it is not
- Brazil often has 30000 new infections every day and a 1000 deaths
- Peru Chile and Mexico consistently pump out new infections
- Even Canada Ecuador and Panama contribute a lot despite their relatively low populations.
Future hotspots like Argentina are showing signs that the continent threatens to be the a long term threat to itself and the world economy. Some like Brazil seem to believe the best way to manage the pandemic risk is to pretend it is not happening.
Sweden has shown that letting the virus take a firm hold of your country is not the way to stop the spread of the virus and time will tell but it looks like it is not the way to protect your nations economy either.
The number of deaths from economic collapse could well be much greater than the direct deaths from the virus but until a vaccine is developed there are better ways to manage the spread than opening the doors and letting the virus run wild.
The discovery in the UK that an old steroid drug Dexamethasone can cut deaths from the virus by around a third will not stop the virus spreading exponentially. It is a great discovery. Repurposing the very cheap drug will save thousands of lives across the world but it will not save the global economy. With no vaccine only social distancing and lockdown will save the economy.
Countries like New Zealand China and Germany have found that even when you think you have got to grips with the virus it springs up again requiring reimposing of isolation and quarantining to different degrees. The last thing any country needs is the importation of the virus from places where the virus is growing exponentially. This is why the Americas poses such a massive threat to the rest of the world.
Many of the countries in the Americas offer their own population greater spreading of the virus with their current coronavirus risk management strategy. However rest the world must look at the Americas with self preservation glasses on. Countries like Brazil will need the opposite of travel bridges. They will need to face roadblocks not travel bridges if the rest of the world is to gain respite from the virus.
The key lesson from most other epidemics or pandemics is that the second wave of infections kill many more people than the first wave. Open ended travel from current Covid19 hotspots is a recipe for a second wave of infection in your country.
18th June 2020 V Shaped Recovery In UK Economy Post Pandemic Is On The Cards By September October 2020
A 20 percent plus contraction in the UK is close to 10 times as bad as the UK economic contraction due to the 2008 Financial Crisis. The economic impact of the coronavirus is much worse and much more sudden than the last financial crisis but it could have been even worse.
The biggest economic threat from the coronavirus was the collapse with the world banking system. Many banks were close to the edge in Italy India and China. Chinese banking system was likely to remain afloat but the Italian banking system could have brought the lot tumbling down.
If the banking system collapsed a great global depression would have ensued with perhaps the destruction of the political systems in the likes of the European Union Russia India and maybe even China. As it is so far the world financial institutions remain remarkably intact though battered and slathered in debt.
Considering the UK has more or less been shut for months a 20 percent plus economic contraction is good! The question was never will the UK fall into a recession when its economy was locked down but how long it would take for the economy to return to where it was prepandemic.
It is conceivable albeit a long shot that a V shaped economic recovery will happen by the Autumn Winter of 2020. It is unlikely that a vaccine will be widely available until the end of 2020. However September October may unveil the news that a vaccine is on verge of becoming available for limited use. Such news would provide an immediate boost to the stock market.
We have already witnessed incredibly fast development of a vaccine. Major pharmaceutical businesses are already producing a vaccine not yet approved for use. This is an exceptional risk for the pharmaceutical businesses. If the vaccine they are manufacturing is not approved then all their investment in manufacturing the vaccine will have been wasted. However if it is approved it means another chunk of traditional vaccine development time will be taken out of the timeline that leads to public consumption and protection from virus.
Daring to hope for a widely available vaccine in September October 2020 is free. If the dream becomes a reality then a V shaped economic recovery in the UK is on the cards. It maybe a gamble to release the vaccine so quickly. Do you feel lucky!
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