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Aspiration to live better wherever you live in the world can be fulfilled by solving all our problems together at once not by a piecemeal approach. Good words do not put food on the table or a roof over your head. Sodding your neighbour does not protect you from destroying everything you have built around you.

People can work together for common good

We do not need to be in the same country culture or place to work as a team to achieve what we want for ourselves. Getting what you want can help others to get what they want out of the investment of time.

Putting up trade barriers does not work for the builder of walls. Forcing people to be in your gang does not make progression towards goals fast enough. Seeing the mutual benefit at the end for all people on the bus does.

Our holistic approach to making decisions for the common good will be successful for all who lend support

If you put your shoulder to the wheel you can reap the rewards from the effort.

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Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.

Currently despite what some politicians and commentators are saying the UK economy continues to grow. Year on year the UK economy is growing at just over 1 percent. Not setting the heather on fire but still growing!

Even if the UK economy was contracting your business can build resilience and grow.

The last governor of the Bank of England says the UK economic future is a rosy one. The current governor of the Bank of England thinks the UK will not fall into recession in 2019.

What of the future? Economic growth not contraction. The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. Can your business exploit the opportunities for growth that are ahead?

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With our support uncertainty will have less of a negative impact on your business. Be more positive about future of your business.

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No one person or type of business protection will ensure your resilience and survival but you must at least be very clear how you are manage all business risks.

How well prepared your business will directly correlate with your ability to recover in the event of a major risk event. The lack of a practical plan of recovery could be the difference between business survival and business failure.

Although enterprise risks vary in scope form and size a well thought out business plan tailored to your business, will speed up your business recovery in the event of a disaster physical or reputation threatening.

Do not risk fatally damaging your business and all the investment in your key asset. The most resilient businesses have already thought through all types of risks and have a clear business sustainability plan regardless of the risk occurring.

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25th June 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Economy To Shrink Nearly 5 Percent In 2020

The IMF is now predicting a deeper global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Even if the spread of the virus reduces which it is not consumers will be too frightened to spend at the same level as prepandemic. This will hit the the global economy hard.

8th June 2020 World Bank Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic To Shrink Global GDP By 5.2 Percent In 2020

The forecast if it is right will be worst global economic contraction since World War II. The World Bank is forecasting global economic growth of 4.2 percent in 2021.

26th May 2020 The Second Wave Is Often The Biggest Killer

Going back centuries we can see that it is often the second wave of infections that kill more people than the first hit of the pandemic. While some countries are getting to grips with the Covid19 pandemic others have yet to feel the full force of the new deadly virus.

The game changer will be a vaccine but without that most countries will experience second third or more waves of Covid19. How big these waves impact will depend on learning the lessons from the first wave and not repeating the same or similar mistakes.

A large second wave of the virus with run away exponential spreading that forces reinforcement of social and economic lockdown would be catastrophic. The reproduction rate in countries where the virus is under control must be kept below 1. Countries which do not have the virus under control need to be quarantined to prevent them spreading the virus back into controlled country environments.

Even without a second wave of deaths the first wave tsunami economic wave may hurt localised areas whole continents and the world:

  • Some countries will not be able to pay their debts built up prior to pandemic or during the pandemic.
  • The eurozone and wider European union could implode from within. Alternatively some weaker countries may be forced to leave for the sake of survival of the rest as a homogeneous economic unit.
  • Systemic banking collapse could yet occur. Italian Indian and Chinese banks are particularly weak. However unknown weaknesses in other national banking systems could be the first domino to fall.
  • Corporate entities soaked in debt may have to close creating bad debt others may struggle to cope with.
  • Commercial and private valuations will in the short term be overpriced. Investments which have such assets are also overpriced. If there is not a V-shaped recovery in the economy then in the medium term this could create an unstable finance sector that could be a lot more damaging than lost revenue for a few months.
  • The political fundamentals could change when people react to the dawning that not only have thousands of people died but their financial futures are ruined for decades or perhaps lifetimes. Russia Brazil and India could presently be smoldering in embers of political change which could affect oil prices and the global economy.

Most of all debt was a problem for many countries prior to pandemic. With the pandemic debt has been posted as the saviour. It could become a bigger killer than the virus.

14th April 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports The Global Economy Shrinking 3 Percent Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic

The IMF had forecast a growth of 3.5 percent for the the global economy pre pandemic. This means the IMF is forecasting a 6.5 percent swing from growth to global recession.

The financial crisis in 2009 only saw a global recession of 0.1 percent. This economic and financial crisis is 30 times worse than 2009 financial crisis. Next year the IMF expects a massive bounce back to global economic growth. Not all businesses will survive to see it.

23rd March 2020 Global Recession Due To Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Is Guaranteed

The only uncertainty is whether the global economy will deteriorate so much that a long term global economic depression happens.

20th January 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts 2020 and 2021

The IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. Risks to the global economy include:

  • High levels of inequality within countries and between countries
  • The rapid development of 4th industrial revolution technology threatening unemployment rises
  • High geopolitical risks and trade wars
  • Financial meltdown due to very high levels of debt

The IMF can see signs that some risks are stabilising but still significant threat to global growth.

9th January 2020 Now The Iran USA Immediate Threat Of War Is Dissipating The Global Economic Threat Returns To International Trade Wars

The signs are that both USA and Iran can agree to disagree again within killing thousands of people. The biggest threat to the global economy is the trade wars around the world particularly USA China trade war. Even this threat appears to be unwinding in its severity especially if they can do a partial deal soon.

If America and China can do a trade deal sign it and implement it the global economy can expand aggressively. It will be like the cork in a bottle of champagne.

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Until then and in addition to such a trade deal governments around the world need to invest heavily in infrastructure to support the global economy and prepare for rapid expansion 2021 onwards.

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