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How effectively are you managing or will you manage the UK economic risks? Have you identified and are you managing economic risks such as rising reducing costs of money increasing lowering of business costs in general as well as costs of regulations and taxes.
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The construction industry has many innovations to solve the housing crisis in UK quicker. Could the quickest and cheapest solution to the housing crisis be 3D printing?
Low cost homes for UK to solve homelessness and housing shortage
Ramping up affordable homes in the UK is key to solving many social problems in UK. The UK housing crisis requires more than one solution. Perhaps 3D printed homes is one realistic solution right now not tomorrow.
Traditional methods of building affordable housing in the UK can be too expensive. If house building is too expensive houses will not get built. If homes do not get built the UK economy suffers as well as people.
UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
Not just shops! Just shopping on the High Street is no longer enough for the consumer nor the High Street. We have to be a bit smarter more innovative and put into action a more radical approach to delivering what people want from the High Street now.
Britains High Streets have a bright future if entrepreneurs business leaders and local planners are a bit smarter
The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less if we work at building a better future for the High Street in UK.
Retail therapy is still important to many but the High Street can do so much more for the local community
Retail experts have a role to play on the High Street in the UK. They need to be a bit more imaginative creative and innovative to deliver a High Street fit for the future. Selling stuff is no longer enough. Entrepreneurial retailers will sell experiences night and day.
The notice of the Death of the High Street is premature!
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Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports
Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.
Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.
Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business
Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.
UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not
Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.
Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.
UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas
This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.
Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.
If you want to explore ways to sell more and export more from the UK then click here – and enter code UK EXPORTER when you complete form. Alternatively, complete the form below and enter same code.
BUSINESSRISKTV YOUR BUSINESS FORECAST TO GROW FASTER THAN CBI THINKS
Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017
If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.
17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent
UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.
Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.
If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest
Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!
UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.
Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.
Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.
Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.
Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.
Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.
The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.
So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.
The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.
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What does Brexit mean for the UK Europe and Globally?
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Brexit Guide Brexit Business Risk Assessment Analysis News and Opinions
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Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.
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Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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