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15th February 2020 Battle To Take Back Control By UK Voters Includes Taking Back Control Of UK Treasury

The constructive dismissal of the UK Chancellor is actually critical to the success of the UK. Too often in the past UK government policy has been dictated to not by the Prime Minister in No 10 but the Chancellor in No 11.

It is widely accepted that the Chancellor and Treasury Department in any UK government acts as a break on the government of the days policies. This is insane.

Whether the government of the day is good or bad should be dictated by the the voters opinion on UK government policies enacted and embedded in society. Any government in the UK should not be constricted by the UK Treasury department.

The UK Treasury department is made up of unelected civil servants and government special advisers. The Chancellor is at the head of this largely unelected body. We have seen over the last 5 years that the UK Treasury has sought to use its considerable influence to dictate UK government policy on Brexit. Most of the UK Treasury department forecasts on job losses and impeding UK recession due to Brexit have been wrong. In the case of job losses massively wrong. The UK Treasury predicted losses in the hundreds of thousands when in fact the UK has created hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

The UK Treasury department has either been massively incompetent or acting in a political way for decades. They are not stupid people but they are very political.

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Whether Boris Johnsons government has the right policies for the UK is entirely a matter of opinion and voters opinion in particular. If he fails to meet the requirements of voters he will reap the wrath of voters in 5 years time. It is not up to the UK Treasury department to put the break on or open up the spending taps. That is for the politicians to decide as the voters representatives.

Anything that takes back control responsibility and most importantly accountability from the civil servants in the UK Treasury is a good thing for democracy.

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6th January 2020 UK Politicians Must Now Deliver On Their Promises

Kier Starmer is the most likely new Labour leader. He is a Remainer who wanted a second Referendum. He is quoted as saying that whether the UK leaves the European Union EU is certain. The new UK Prime Minister says the UK will leave at the end of January 2020 and transition to being fully out of EU by end of 2020. Whether the UK leaves the EU is certain. How it leaves the EU will not be clear until mid 2020 to end 2020.

The UK looks set to pump billions of taxpayers money into the UK economy in addition to forcing UK employers to pump more money into 3 million people in UK on low pay with 6% jump in National Living Wage.

Billions will be pumped into the UK economy via infrastructure investments including transport and 5G expansion. Billions of pounds will be pumped into NHS. Governments around the world need to support the global economy with increased government spending. Much more money will be pumped into Green UK economy.

The UK does have a little wiggle room to support the UK economy but the UK government needs to back its promises in the December 2019 General Election. It needs to invest in the UKs future business success and it needs to do most of it in the next 2 years if it has any hope of being re-elected in 2024. Time to put your money where your mouth was!

If the new UK government backs itself with massive economic investment the private sector will respond in kind and the UK can look forward to a much better watch barring worrying international geo-politics.

If Boris Johnson can reject the austerity ideology of David Cameron and effectively deliver the vision of Theresa May he will go a long way to being unbeatable in the 2024 General Election and even set himself up for winning majority 3 elections in a row.

Prime Minister Johnson will need to deliver both consistent high employment with a palatable social care policy including how does the UK pay for cost of people living in retirement for decades at the same time as birth rate falls. People in the UK are crying out for a fairer society. If Boris delivers this he will go down as the best Prime Minister the UK has ever had. If he does not he will go down as biggest liar ever at No 10 and there have been too many lying UK politicians to date!

18th February 2019 What does the split in the Labour Party mean for all political parties in UK and for the business and economy in the UK? 

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20th June 2018 More Political Risks To Europe Than Economic Risks

Politics will bring the European Union EU down not lack of money. The EU is more vulnerable to the changing political map according to ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny. He was reported as saying today

On the whole there are more risks to financial stability in Europe on the political side than on the economic side

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  • Germany is struggling as the power of the Angela Merkel wanes. She is losing her grip and more euro sceptic leaders are rising to the top.
  • Italy has euro sceptic politicians at the top and could bring the EU down.
  • Eastern European countries in the EU are not playing by the rules of the EU.
  • France has been defying the EU rules on maximum deficit for years.
  • Greece will never recover from the financial crisis unless Germany agrees to a Hair Cut on Greek debt and that is not going to happen.

What do you think? Have your say on the political crisis in the EU click here

27th February 2018 Geopolitical Risks Perhaps Biggest Threat To Businesses

The UK economy is probably stronger right now than many official figures reveal, despite the Brexit vote in June 2016. However the UK is not the only country to be under the cloak of geopolitical risks that threaten business survival and growth.

Italy and Germany are two developed countries in Europe that are waiting to see what their political future looks like. On the 4th March the result of Italys election will be known. It is likely that a weak minority government or a weak coalition government will be formed following the result. This will do little to positively shape Italy’s future and Italy may look to the result of Brexit for inspiration to separate form the EU or recoil from the example.

Germany is doing just fine with out ruling government for around half a year.   Just shows you that we can survive fine without politicians! On the 4th March 2018 we’ll find out if Germany has finally sorted out its governmental issues or will Germany spend the next couple of months fighting another election we could see Germany lurching even further right politically.

Both Germany and Italy could precipitate the beginning of the end of the European Union EU for different reasons becoming disillusioned with the EU.   Brexit could look like a molehill compared to the mountain the EU may yet have to climb.

USA economy has been turbocharged by take cuts low unemployment and a return of capital to the homeland. The wheels could fall-off if Trump is indicted.   Alternatively he could develop into one of the best president’s America has had totally rejuvenating America! The latter should be the preferred option for the rest of the world as when America catches a cold.

Meanwhile Asia Pacific EU and the Americas are all exposed to the America First policy. USA is also threatening to start a trade war with China.

Africa and South Africa in particular may be looking at a new dawn post colonial period. Not only could Africa boost its own wealth but the rest of the world could join in the party

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How To Manage Political Risk To Your Business

Learn how to understand and control political risk to your business

Many people are not interested in politics. However to be unconcerned about the geo-political risks facing both business and society as a whole is to play Russian Roulette with your future. Business political risk management should be at the forefront of most businesses even SMEs.

What is your political risk assessment? How will political risks impact on your business objectives? Don’t compound national governance failure with corporate governance failure. Consciously accepting political risks is perfectly sensible.   Being unaware of your exposure to political risks may be foolhardy.

Most business leaders prefer to make decisions in a certain stable marketplace.   Geopolitical unpredictability has perhaps created unprecedented uncertainty. The worst environment for making informed business decisions.

Most business problems can be fairly easily resolved over time if there is a stable platform upon which to grow. Illogical counter productive geopolitical decisions from unpredictable leaders at least complicates the world of business.

Geopolitical risks require a holistic approach due to their interconnected features and potential risk scenarios. Events that seemingly have little importance can quickly or over a long period of time create a severe negative impact on a business. They can also create new opportunities for more rapid business growth.

Join our political risk management forum to discuss possible political risk management strategies to protect your business.

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