How could Suez and Panama Canal Issues Impact Your Business?

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Navigating Troubled Waters: How Water Shortages and the Red Sea War are Choking Global Trade in 2024

The year 2024 opened not with a bang, but with a whimper in the global trade realm. While visions of economic recovery danced in our heads, harsh realities lurked beneath the surface, threatening to capsize the fragile vessel of global supply chains. Two major chokepoints emerged, not as dramatic temporary blockages like the Ever Given (2021), but as insidious, long-term threats: water shortages in the Panama Canal and the escalating war in the Red Sea impacting the Suez Canal.

Panama’s Parched Path:

Panama, the vital shortcut connecting the Atlantic and Pacific, faces a foe not of steel and wind, but of dwindling rain. El Niño’s capricious hand has brought below-average rainfall to the region, pushing water levels in the canal to precariously low levels. As of October 2024, Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary water source, sits at a mere 80% of its capacity, forcing authorities to implement draft restrictions. These restrictions limit the size and cargo of ships that can navigate the canal, creating bottlenecks and delays.

30 January 2024- Diego Pantjoa-Navajas, vice president of Amazon Web Services Supply Chain, told FOX Business that the two situations in the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal are “dramatically impacting supply chains,” concurrently, hindering trade between Asia and Europe and between North America and Asia.

The consequences are far-reaching. Coffee from South America, electronics from Asia, and even furniture from Europe all face longer journeys and higher shipping costs. For consumers, this translates to empty shelves and rising prices. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the water shortage could shave off 0.5% from global GDP growth in 2024, a sobering reminder of Panama’s outsized role in the global trade tapestry.

Red Sea’s Roiling Conflict:

Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the drums of war are beating a menacing rhythm. The war in Gaza and Israel has resulted in tragic loss of life. In addition, Houthis Yemen have attacked shipping in the Red Sea attempting to access Suez Canal in support of the Palestinians in Gaza. This has led to USA and UK to attack Houthis positions in Yemen claiming they are protecting key shipping route.

Automakers Tesla and Geely-owned Volvo Car said 12 January they were suspending some production in Europe due to a shortage of components, the first clear sign that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are hitting manufacturers in the region.

The ongoing conflict has spilled over into this crucial shipping lane, raising insurance costs and deterring many vessels from venturing through. The alternative route around Africa adds days and cost to shipping goods which has to be paid with reduced profits of businesses or increased costs to consumers.

The impact is undeniable. Shipping giants like Maersk and CMA CGM have rerouted their vessels around Africa, adding weeks to delivery times and further straining already stretched supply chains. The cost of transporting goods through the Suez Canal has skyrocketed, pushing up the price of everything from oil and gas to clothing and consumer electronics.

A Perfect Storm of Uncertainty:

These two seemingly disparate issues—water scarcity in Panama and war in the Red Sea—have converged to create a perfect storm of uncertainty for global trade. Businesses are scrambling to adapt, exploring alternative routes, diversifying their suppliers, and implementing risk mitigation strategies. Consumers, meanwhile, are bracing for a prolonged period of higher prices and product shortages.

The long-term implications remain murky. Will Panama’s water woes persist, or will El Niño relent and bring life-giving rain? Will the Red Sea conflict escalate further, or will diplomacy prevail and restore stability to the region? Only time will tell.

One thing is certain, however: the events of 2024 have exposed the fragility of our interconnected world. It is a stark reminder that global trade is a delicate ecosystem, and even seemingly minor disruptions can have far-reaching consequences.

The Road Ahead:

The challenges we face are complex, but not insurmountable. Governments, businesses, and individuals must work together to build a more resilient and sustainable global trade system. This means:

  • Investing in alternative infrastructure: Diversifying shipping routes, developing inland waterways, and exploring alternative modes of transportation are crucial to lessen dependence on chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canals.
  • Embracing innovation: Technological solutions like blockchain and artificial intelligence can help optimise supply chains, improve transparency, and mitigate risks.
  • Promoting international cooperation: Diplomacy and dialogue are essential to resolving conflicts and ensuring the free flow of goods across borders.
  • Building consumer resilience: Encouraging responsible consumption habits and supporting local businesses can help communities weather disruptions and build self-reliance.

The path ahead is fraught with challenges, but by working together, we can navigate these troubled waters and build a more resilient and prosperous future for all.

A Future in the Balance:

The fate of global trade in 2024, and beyond, hangs in the balance. Whether the currents of Panama’s water levels rise or fall, and whether the flames of war in the Red Sea flicker out or grow into an inferno, one thing is certain: the world is watching. This is not just an economic story; it’s a human story. Livelihoods depend on the smooth flow of goods, families rely on affordable essentials, and communities thrive on interconnectedness.

We stand at a crossroads, where the choices we make will determine the shape of our future. Do we build walls of protectionism, or bridges of cooperation? Do we prioritise short-term gain over long-term sustainability? Do we succumb to fear and uncertainty, or do we rise to the challenge with innovation and ingenuity?

The answer lies not just in boardrooms and government chambers, but in the hands of each individual. From the choices we make as consumers to the voices we raise as citizens, we all have a role to play in shaping the future of global trade. Let us choose wisely, let us act with courage, and let us navigate these troubled waters together, towards a future where prosperity flows freely and the tide lifts all boats.

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Shipping Costs Spike In December And Could Get A lot Worse If Fighting Escalates 2024

Inflation and interest rates are not guaranteed to fall in 2024!

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index: A Stormy Sea Ahead After Red Sea Attacks

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), a key gauge of global shipping costs, has once again become a stormy sea, this time roiled by the recent attacks in the Red Sea in December 2023. While the index had been on a downward trend throughout 2023, offering hope for moderating inflation and easing supply chain pressures, the Red Sea disruptions have sent it surging back up, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the global economic outlook in 2024.

Prior to the Red Sea attacks, the SCFI had been on a steady decline since its January 2022 peak, dropping from over 5100 points to around 1250 points by December. This decline reflected some easing of congestion and pressure on shipping costs, raising hopes for a more stable economic climate.

However, the attacks on oil tankers and a commercial vessel near the Yemeni port of Hodeidah in December sent shockwaves through the shipping industry. The heightened security concerns and potential disruption to vital trade routes through the Red Sea have caused a sharp spike in the SCFI, pushing it back up to around 1800 points as of December 29, 2023.

Implications for Inflation and Interest Rates:

This sudden surge in the SCFI has significant implications for inflation and interest rates in 2024. As shipping costs rise, the price of imported goods increases, potentially fueling inflationary pressures. This could lead central banks to reconsider their monetary policy stances and potentially resume interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

The extent to which the Red Sea attacks impact inflation and interest rates will depend on several factors, including the duration of the disruptions, the effectiveness of security measures implemented, and the overall resilience of global supply chains. However, the potential for renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is a cause for concern for businesses and consumers alike.

Risk Management Strategies for Business Leaders:

In this uncertain environment, business leaders must be prepared to navigate the choppy waters of the SCFI and mitigate the potential risks associated with rising shipping costs. Here are some key strategies to consider:

  • Diversify Supply Chains and Shipping Routes: Reduce reliance on Red Sea routes and explore alternative shipping routes and sourcing options to minimise exposure to disruptions.
  • Invest in Supply Chain Visibility: Enhance your ability to track shipments and anticipate potential delays to adjust inventory levels and production schedules.
  • Strengthen Supplier Relationships: Foster closer partnerships with key suppliers to ensure reliable supply and negotiate flexible pricing terms that account for fluctuating shipping costs.
  • Optimise Inventory Management: Implement data-driven inventory management practices to minimise carrying costs and optimise stock levels based on projected demand and SCFI trends.
  • Consider Flexible Pricing Models: Explore pricing models that can adjust to fluctuations in shipping costs and protect your profit margins.

By adopting these strategies, businesses can build resilience in their supply chains and navigate the challenges of a volatile SCFI in 2024.

Conclusion:

The recent spike in the SCFI serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of global supply chains and the potential for unforeseen events to disrupt the delicate balance of global trade. While the long-term impact of the Red Sea attacks remains uncertain, businesses must be prepared for a more challenging economic landscape in 2024. By remaining agile, diversified, and informed, businesses can weather the storm and emerge stronger in the face of an unpredictable shipping market.

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Supply Chain Risk Management 2024

How will you manage your supply chain risks in 2024?

Top 10 Supply Chain Management Trends on the Horizon in 2024

As the world continues to grapple with disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and climate change, supply chain management is undergoing a period of rapid transformation. Organisations are embracing digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies to enhance their supply chains and build resilience in the face of uncertainty.

In this article, we will explore the top 10 supply chain management trends that are expected to shape the industry in 2024 and beyond. These trends encompass technological advancements, strategic approaches, and evolving consumer demands that will redefine the way supply chains operate.

1. Digital Supply Chain As the Backbone of Resilience

The digital supply chain has emerged as the overarching trend driving supply chain transformation. It encompasses the integration of digital technologies, such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data analytics, to streamline operations, enhance visibility, and optimise decision-making.

Organisations are moving away from traditional paper-based processes and siloed systems towards a connected and data-driven supply chain ecosystem. This digital transformation is enabling businesses to gain real-time insights into their operations, predict disruptions, and respond proactively to changing market conditions.

2. Big Data and Analytics Driving Insights-Driven Decisions

Big data and analytics are playing a crucial role in extracting valuable insights from the vast amounts of data generated across the supply chain. Organisations are leveraging data analytics to identify patterns, optimise inventory management, improve demand forecasting, and enhance customer service.

Advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, are enabling businesses to anticipate disruptions, simulate scenarios, and make informed decisions that optimise supply chain performance.

3. Artificial Intelligence Revolutionising Supply Chain Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming supply chain operations by automating tasks, enhancing decision-making, and enabling predictive insights. AI applications are being used to automate repetitive tasks, such as data entry and order processing, freeing up human workers to focus on more strategic initiatives.

AI is also being used to optimise warehouse operations, manage transportation routes, and personalise customer experiences. AI-powered forecasting models are improving demand prediction accuracy, reducing inventory costs, and ensuring product availability.

4. Supply Chain Investments: Balancing Systems and Talent

Investment in supply chain systems and talent is essential for building a resilient and adaptable supply chain. Organisations are investing in modern supply chain management software, cloud-based platforms, and data analytics tools to enhance their technological capabilities.

Alongside these technological investments, organisations are also prioritising the development of their supply chain workforce. This includes providing training on digital technologies, fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making, and attracting and retaining top talent.

5. End-to-End Visibility, Traceability, and Location Intelligence

End-to-end visibility, traceability, and location intelligence are becoming increasingly important for supply chain transparency and risk management. Organisations are implementing technologies such as RFID tags, sensors, and IoT devices to track goods throughout the supply chain, from origin to delivery.

This real-time visibility enables businesses to monitor product quality, identify potential disruptions, and proactively address issues. It also enhances customer satisfaction by providing real-time tracking information and delivery updates.

6. Disruption and Risk Management: Embracing Agility and Resilience

Supply chains are facing an increasing number of disruptions, from natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts to technological advancements and changing consumer demands. Organisations are shifting their focus from traditional disaster recovery plans to proactive risk management strategies.

Building a resilient supply chain involves identifying potential risks, assessing their impact, and implementing mitigation strategies. It also requires the ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and respond to disruptions in a timely and effective manner.

7. Agility and Resilience: Adapting to Changing Demands

Consumer expectations are constantly evolving, and organisations must adapt their supply chains to meet these demands. Customers are demanding faster delivery times, more personalised products, and greater transparency.

Supply chains need to be agile enough to respond to these changing demands, quickly introduce new products, and personalise customer experiences. This requires a flexible and adaptable supply chain infrastructure that can accommodate rapid changes.

8. Cybersecurity: Protecting Critical Supply Chain Assets

Supply chains are increasingly becoming targets for cyberattacks, as they represent a critical component of global commerce. Organisations are prioritising cybersecurity measures to protect their supply chain assets and prevent disruptions caused by cyberattacks.

Cybersecurity strategies include implementing robust access controls, educating employees on cybersecurity risks, and regularly monitoring supply chain systems for potential threats.

9. Green and Circular Supply Chains: A Sustainable Future

Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important factor in supply chain management. Organisations are adopting green and circular supply chain practices to reduce their environmental impact and contribute to a more sustainable future.

Green supply chains are focusing on resource efficiency.

10. Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS): A Strategic Lever for Flexibility

Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS) is emerging as a strategic lever for organisations seeking flexibility and efficiency in their supply chain operations. SCAaS involves outsourcing non-core supply chain functions to specialised providers, allowing organisations to focus on their core competencies.

SCaaS providers offer a range of services, including logistics, transportation, warehousing, and inventory management. This allows organisations to access expertise and resources without the burden of managing these functions in-house.

Conclusion

The supply chain landscape is undergoing a period of rapid transformation driven by technological advancements, evolving consumer demands, and the need for resilience. Organisations that embrace digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies will be well-positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.

The top 10 supply chain management trends on the horizon in 2024 highlight the critical role of technology, data, and strategic partnerships in building resilient and adaptable supply chains. By embracing these trends, organisations can optimise their operations, enhance customer satisfaction, and achieve sustainable growth.

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Risk Diversification Is A Protection Against Ignorance Of Your Key Business Risks

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What is risk diversification? Diversification is for idiots explored. What are the dangers of over diversification in business? Concentration of effort on key risks builds better business protection and can grow a business faster with less uncertainty. Diversification is not good or bad – horses for courses! There are benefits of diversification, but not at expense of liquifying your business success.

If you do not know how to manage business risks you need to diversify your risk management strategy more to protect your business from your incompetence.

Of course you should hedge your bets in business decision making if you do not know what you are doing! Do you know your key business threats and opportunity’s ? Are you sure you know? If so go ahead full steam. If you do not know then maybe you should understand your business risks better before managing your business risks to maximise your business performance?

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If you know how to analysis your business risks and truly value your business assets, then maybe you should invest most of your time and money in what you know rather than uncertainty! If you want your business to perform averagely maybe you should spread your risk decisions, or alternatively, if you want maximum performance from your existing resources you should focus on what’s best for your business? Spread your business investment wider if you feel more comfortable with that but do that knowing you do not truly understand your key business risks.

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Diversify supply chains to reduce reliance on one country or supplier

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Reduce supply chain risk. Should one supplier be shutdown for whatever reason your business should be able to continue without interruption. At the very least ensure you have alternative risk control measures to react to normal supply interruptions. The proximate cause of the supply chain disruption could be wide and varied including fire political social unrest natural disaster or even something called coronavirus. Assessing the risks from your supply chain is critical to the resilience of your business. Diversifying supply chain can increase costs but need not automatically follow.

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Supplier Diversification In Supply Chains

Critical Key Supply’s Should Be Manufactured In Your Own Country More To Mitigate Breaking Supply Chain To Your Business

EU leaders last month stressed the need for the bloc to have strategic autonomy after the coronavirus crisis.

The European Union and its companies need to diversify their supply chains to reduce their reliance on individual countries but that does not mean bringing all production back to Europe

European Union EU Trade Chief

With the coronavirus pandemic many have now realised that there has been an over reliance on Asia for the supply of key supplies. Austrian EU diplomats think this means more manufacturing and production of key supplies should be brought home. Whilst this does not mean all Asian supplies from Asia should cease it does mean more manufacturing is required in your own country to build supply resilience.

We need to look at how to build resilient supply chains based on diversification acknowledging the simple fact that we will not be able to manufacture everything locally

European Union EU Trade Chief

Dutch trade minister Sigrid Kaag told reporters after the video conference with EU counterparts that there was an awakening to the need to determine the weakest links in value chains. How can you mitigate the overdependence on countries such as China or India when it comes to essential goods.

During the coronavirus pandemic France Germany and USA were just some of the countries who intervened at government level to stop supply of some products including personal protective equipment and medical equipment. When supply comes from outside your own country you are diversifying your supply chain but over reliance on overseas supply can increase risk of supply chain interruption. Arriving at the right balance is key to maintaining good business performance and strong business resilience.

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Opening up the skies is a big part of easing global supply crisis. More holidaymakers increases airfreight opportunities and lowers international trading by air costs. Shortening supply chain, reversing globalisation, can increase speed of change and flexibility in an uncertain world as well as build resilience whilst protecting the environment from supply chain costs.

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Your guide to supply chain risk management

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How Do You Manage Supply Chain Risks

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Build a supply chain risk management framework based on the culture of your business and industry. Monitor and review your risk assessment process in line with current best supply chain risk management practices. Ensure you comply with current governance risk and compliance GRC rules regulations and standards.

Supply Chain Risk Management

The importance of supply chain risks management and examples of supply chain risk controls

Supply chain risks refer to any potential disruptions or negative impacts on the supply chain that could impact an organisation’s ability to meet customer demand and/or fulfill their own business objectives. These risks can arise from a wide range of factors, such as natural disasters, geopolitical instability, economic volatility, supplier bankruptcy, and cyber threats. The importance of supply chain risk management cannot be overstated as it enables organisations to mitigate or avoid the negative impacts of these risks and maintain business continuity.

Effective supply chain risk management involves identifying potential risks and implementing strategies to minimise or eliminate them. Organisations need to assess the likelihood and impact of different types of supply chain risks and develop contingency plans to respond to disruptions. They also need to establish processes for monitoring their supply chain and identifying potential risks in real-time so that they can take immediate action to minimise their impact.

One of the most significant benefits of supply chain risk management is that it enables organisations to maintain their customer service levels and meet their business objectives. When supply chain disruptions occur, they can result in delays, product shortages, and quality issues that can negatively impact customer satisfaction and brand reputation. By proactively managing supply chain risks, organisations can minimise the likelihood of these disruptions occurring and ensure that they have the necessary resources and contingency plans in place to respond quickly and effectively.

Another benefit of supply chain risk management is that it enables organisations to reduce their overall supply chain costs. When supply chain disruptions occur, they can result in increased costs, such as rush orders, expedited transportation, and additional inventory holding costs. By managing supply chain risks, organisations can minimise these costs and optimise their supply chain operations to improve efficiency and reduce waste.

Here are some key supply chain risks that organisations need to be aware of, along with examples of supply chain risk controls:

Supply Chain RiskExamples of Risk Controls
Supplier bankruptcyDiversifying supplier base, conducting regular financial assessments of suppliers, establishing contingency plans to switch suppliers if necessary
Natural disastersDeveloping contingency plans for alternate transportation routes, stockpiling inventory in multiple locations, establishing communication channels with suppliers and logistics partners
Geopolitical instabilityDiversifying supplier base across different regions, monitoring political and economic developments in key regions, establishing contingency plans for political unrest
Cyber threatsImplementing cybersecurity measures such as firewalls, encryption, and multi-factor authentication, conducting regular cybersecurity audits, establishing incident response plans

In conclusion, supply chain risk management is a critical aspect of modern business operations that can help organisations maintain business continuity, meet customer demand, and optimise their supply chain operations. By identifying potential risks, developing contingency plans, and establishing effective monitoring processes, organisations can minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions and maintain a competitive edge in today’s global marketplace.

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Changing how you source products may need to change after the coronavirus pandemic.

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The benefits of local sourcing of business products and services are many and varied from environmental benefits to real cost savings to security of supply lines to flexibility of delivery.

In the UK it is more expensive to import goods and services from overseas due to around a 10 to 20 percent fall in the value of the pound against a basket of foreign currencies in the last 12 months. Where there may have been a substantial price difference between imports and domestic suppliers, this has mostly gone as can be witnessed by the fact that the UK is exporting more now that at any time since 1995.

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Sourcing products from around the world can lead to more cost and more business interruptions and less flexibility in meeting your customer needs.

Develop shorter local supply chains to build your business with more certainty. In a new Brexit world developing more local suppliers will guard against the negative impact of currency fluctuations.

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How To Improve Supply Chain Risks

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Learn more about improving supply chain risks. Understand supply chain risks and how to mitigate them. Not understanding your supply chain risks increases the risk of business interruption at best and at worst threatens your business survival.

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