Uncertainty of international trade expanding or contracting impacting on your business objectives

Sign up for our introduction to international trade risk analysis assessment and management with help of BusinessRiskTV and its risk expert network

What could cause the opening or closing international trade marketplace? The closing or opening of international trade to your business is perhaps at a recent high level of uncertainty. What elements of international trade threaten your business? What events could open up new opportunities to your business? How do you manage the risks better? Mitigate the threats impacting on your business success. Enhance the beneficial outcomes for your business of international trade.

Risk Management Toolbox Talk Exploring Barriers To And Opportunities From International Trade

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Online workshop is an introduction to BusinessRiskTV online risk management service to help business leaders make key business decisions to manage threats and opportunities better.

The opening or closing of international marketplace to all who wish to participate is a moving feast. Changes in threats and opportunities can arise based on sudden economic, geopolitical and technology risks in particular.

Managing risks from international trade may be limited to mitigating threats, or harnessing and enhancing the benefits from international trade. It may be impossible to influence whether risk events occur or not. However, exploring the threats and opportunities may be critical to your business success.

Being the first mover may be just as important. The first businesses to act tend to carry the greatest risks and rewards. If you are to act first you may need help from risk experts to improve your business intelligence and international trade risk knowledge.

Benefits include:

  • Limiting losses
  • Maximising sales profit
  • Grow faster with less uncertainty

Opening the enterprise risk management process of identifying analysing and assessing to international trade risks. Working on overcoming international trade barriers. Exploring a risk profile of a company and international trade risks. Developing an enterprise risk management implementation road map to stronger business resilience and expansion. Starting to understand how to overcome trade barriers including supply chain risk management. Identifying solutions to international trade problems. Opening the door to further risk workshops with an introduction to international trade risk awareness training and enterprise-wide risk management solutions.

Pay below via Paypal to secure your place on our online risk management workshop.

Who should attend?

Business leaders, business owners, executives and senior managers as well as risk professionals.

How to attend online risk management toolbox talk on

Title:

Uncertainty of international trade expanding or contracting
Date:Friday 15th January 2021
Time:5:00 pm – 5:30 pm (GMT)
Speaker:Keith Lewis
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In this this essential risk management toolbox talk we will cover the key international trade risks potentially impacting on your business including:

  • Geopolitical Risks
  • Global Economy Risks
  • Technology Risks

Save the date for an insight into international trade risk management

Northern Powerhouse Risk Management Online Seminars

Pay fee online via secure third party payment service Paypal who do not inform us of your full account details. We will email you the Zoom video conferencing joining instructions no later than 24 hours before the workshop begins.

As a special offer you will be able to redeem your non-member payment of £20 against your first year’s subscription fee for BusinessRiskTV Pro Risk Manager for 12 months. Membership of BusinessRiskTV opens up Pro Risk Manager service benefits include huge discounts off products and services such as further training, online business coaching and advertising costs. BusinessRiskTV membership provides opportunity to continue corporate risk analysis, assessment and management business intelligence as well as option to collaborate with global risk management experts to improve your ability to manage your business better.

Post introductory online risk management toolbox talk on 15th January 2021, members and non-members of BusinessRiskTV will also be given opportunity to collaborate in future online advanced workshop sessions. These sessions will further explore how business leaders around the world can collaborate specifically on overcoming barriers to international trade, both theory and practice. These advanced workshops sessions will aim to increase international trade by participants. Workshop participants will share expert knowledge and practical business development tools. The introductory online fee will be used to reduce the cost of more advanced sessions by participants.

Participants at introductory online risk management toolbox talk can also put themselves forward as international trade risk experts at future more advanced online workshop events to share your expert knowledge and promote their business interests. Get in touch with us if this is you.

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European Central Bank ECB President Mario Draghi calls for Eurozone governments to spend more to save Euro

ECB President says Eurozone needs ever closer fiscal union to protect it from economic trade winds

Outgoing ECB President implies Germans are wrong. Eurozone governments especially Germany need to invest in Eurozones future or it will not have a future. The ECB has very few risk management tools left to save the Euro. If the Germans believe in the Euro they need to back it by unleashing massive spending.

Draghi says Eurozone countries need to open up government spending as Eurozone interest rates and quantitative easing QE is not going to work anymore.

Euro area governments like German have plenty of cash they could invest but they do not want to bail out southern European countries economically any more. Higher euro area government spending is needed urgently to prevent the Eurozone area collapsing.

Draghi is currently Europes top banker but will soon be replaced by ex-IMF leader Christine Lagarde. She is being encouraged by German politicians and bankers to reverse Draghis cheap money project to help southern European countries to recover from the financial crisis more than a decade ago. His new eurozone economic stimulus package is an attempt to stop the Eurozone sliding into a recession.

Eurozone area governments need to help boost economic activity with government spending according to Draghi. In addition he wants higher taxation to facilitate more government spending without borrowing too much. If governments do not do more and ECB economic recovery tools are exhausted the Eurozone could collapse starting with weak Eurozone banks.

Most southern Eurozone countries are still struggling with punishingly high unemployment levels especially youth unemployment.

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USA president Donald Trump plans to add a 10 percent tariff to another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on 1st September. Without a trade deal the global economy will continue to suffer not just China and USA economys. Part of the trade war rhetoric from USA is that China is manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low to gain a competitive advantage.

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Here in the UK the low value of the pound is held up as a bad thing for the UK economy. The airwaves are full of woe about the negative effects of the low value of the pound on the UK. In the USA president Trump moans about the Federal Reserve keeping the value of the dollar too high with too high interest rates. In addition the USA Treasury classed China as a currency manipulator as it claims China manipulates its currency to keep it lower than warranted.

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It seems that many people with their own political agenda are happy to talk the UK into a recession it does not need to enter if it looks at the opportunities from selling more overseas from UK. If you are open to more ideas to grow your business faster contact us.

Most of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK benefit from a low value in the pound. Their profits are in dollars and when converted to the pound these companies receive a currency benefit to business performance. Investors including the UKs pension funds receive a low value in currency beneficial online casino bonuses at bonushitlist.

Furthermore the UK is benefiting from more income from more tourists coming to the UK. UK tourism money from overseas visitors will help boost UK economy. Business leaders in UK tourism industry should be going all out to attract visitors to their business. The low value of the pound is giving these UK tourism related businesses a competitive advantage.

Without having to enter a trade war or manipulate its currency the UK has been dealt cards that includes low value of the pound. Instead of encouraging UK business leaders of SMEs and large firms to export export export the UK media and political opportunists talk down UK economy. The result is that the UK is failing to taking advantage of the low value of the pound.

By constantly talking up Brexit uncertainty and ignoring the real threats and opportunities from the current global economic conditions the UK will suffer more pain than it needs to that Germany Japan France Italy and most other countries are suffering too.

Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates to cope with the global economic slowdown. The UK can use the low value of the pound to trade its way out of the global economic slowdown. It could that is if business leaders focused on the real threats and opportunities from the low value of the pound.

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Trading more brings down barriers. Every free trade agreement has an edge demarcation or barrier. Pull down barriers by trading more freely one to one. Then national barriers will fall.

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To get the most out of your business assets you do not need a free trade agreement. It does not matter if you are in favour of Brexit or not. You have to manage the threats and opportunities from Brexit. If your business is in the UK EU EEA or on the other side of the world trade more.

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There is an argument that the EU27 were being held back by UK. Maybe UK is being held back from global growth by EU? Most business leaders no longer care.

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  • Most will get on fine with whatever is agreed

Our role is not to meddle with the politics. What will be will be. Our duty is to make the best out of the finalised deal. BusinessRiskTV.com will help business leaders wherever they are trade more profitably.

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Excess steel capacity should be dealt with in a global forum for the problem to avoid an escalation of trade disputes according to OECD following USAs plans to introduce import tariffs on steel.

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25th June 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Economy To Shrink Nearly 5 Percent In 2020

The IMF is now predicting a deeper global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Even if the spread of the virus reduces which it is not consumers will be too frightened to spend at the same level as prepandemic. This will hit the the global economy hard.

8th June 2020 World Bank Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic To Shrink Global GDP By 5.2 Percent In 2020

The forecast if it is right will be worst global economic contraction since World War II. The World Bank is forecasting global economic growth of 4.2 percent in 2021.

26th May 2020 The Second Wave Is Often The Biggest Killer

Going back centuries we can see that it is often the second wave of infections that kill more people than the first hit of the pandemic. While some countries are getting to grips with the Covid19 pandemic others have yet to feel the full force of the new deadly virus.

The game changer will be a vaccine but without that most countries will experience second third or more waves of Covid19. How big these waves impact will depend on learning the lessons from the first wave and not repeating the same or similar mistakes.

A large second wave of the virus with run away exponential spreading that forces reinforcement of social and economic lockdown would be catastrophic. The reproduction rate in countries where the virus is under control must be kept below 1. Countries which do not have the virus under control need to be quarantined to prevent them spreading the virus back into controlled country environments.

Even without a second wave of deaths the first wave tsunami economic wave may hurt localised areas whole continents and the world:

  • Some countries will not be able to pay their debts built up prior to pandemic or during the pandemic.
  • The eurozone and wider European union could implode from within. Alternatively some weaker countries may be forced to leave for the sake of survival of the rest as a homogeneous economic unit.
  • Systemic banking collapse could yet occur. Italian Indian and Chinese banks are particularly weak. However unknown weaknesses in other national banking systems could be the first domino to fall.
  • Corporate entities soaked in debt may have to close creating bad debt others may struggle to cope with.
  • Commercial and private valuations will in the short term be overpriced. Investments which have such assets are also overpriced. If there is not a V-shaped recovery in the economy then in the medium term this could create an unstable finance sector that could be a lot more damaging than lost revenue for a few months.
  • The political fundamentals could change when people react to the dawning that not only have thousands of people died but their financial futures are ruined for decades or perhaps lifetimes. Russia Brazil and India could presently be smoldering in embers of political change which could affect oil prices and the global economy.

Most of all debt was a problem for many countries prior to pandemic. With the pandemic debt has been posted as the saviour. It could become a bigger killer than the virus.

14th April 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports The Global Economy Shrinking 3 Percent Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic

The IMF had forecast a growth of 3.5 percent for the the global economy pre pandemic. This means the IMF is forecasting a 6.5 percent swing from growth to global recession.

The financial crisis in 2009 only saw a global recession of 0.1 percent. This economic and financial crisis is 30 times worse than 2009 financial crisis. Next year the IMF expects a massive bounce back to global economic growth. Not all businesses will survive to see it.

23rd March 2020 Global Recession Due To Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Is Guaranteed

The only uncertainty is whether the global economy will deteriorate so much that a long term global economic depression happens.

20th January 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts 2020 and 2021

The IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. Risks to the global economy include:

  • High levels of inequality within countries and between countries
  • The rapid development of 4th industrial revolution technology threatening unemployment rises
  • High geopolitical risks and trade wars
  • Financial meltdown due to very high levels of debt

The IMF can see signs that some risks are stabilising but still significant threat to global growth.

9th January 2020 Now The Iran USA Immediate Threat Of War Is Dissipating The Global Economic Threat Returns To International Trade Wars

The signs are that both USA and Iran can agree to disagree again within killing thousands of people. The biggest threat to the global economy is the trade wars around the world particularly USA China trade war. Even this threat appears to be unwinding in its severity especially if they can do a partial deal soon.

If America and China can do a trade deal sign it and implement it the global economy can expand aggressively. It will be like the cork in a bottle of champagne.

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Until then and in addition to such a trade deal governments around the world need to invest heavily in infrastructure to support the global economy and prepare for rapid expansion 2021 onwards.

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19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control

Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.

Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.

However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.

However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.

The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.

Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.

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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government

With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.

The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.

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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.

It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.

Prepare your business for all eventualities with our Brexit Marketplace.

20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit

A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.

Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.

Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.

12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority

30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production

Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.

23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension

Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.

An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?

The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.

It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.

Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.

If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.

9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events

Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.

By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.

By applying enterprise risk management principles and practices your business can navigate whatever political and economic storms comes your way.

25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely

Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.

Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.

The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.

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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.

Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.

this Parliament is a disgrace

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019

Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.

All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.

20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October

Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.

There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.

The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.

The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.

17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less

There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products

market researcher Kantar

5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September

UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.

If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.

There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.

4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.

Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.

4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?

The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.

Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.

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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.

The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.

1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them

The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.

UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.

1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012

Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.

The global economy is suffering largely due to trade wars and worldwide geopolitical uncertainty.

5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham

JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.

It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.

In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.

1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.

NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.

NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.

It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.

21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!

The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!

Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.

The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one.   The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.

Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU.   The time for compromise has come to an end.

The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.

The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.

15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos

Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.

The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.

The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.

29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein

MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.

The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.

22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes

The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.

Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.

  1. Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
  2. The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
  3. UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.

Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.

Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.

21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops

Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.

21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU

Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.

He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.

19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.

If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.

The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.

14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week

Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.

The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.

Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.

Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!

13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit

Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.

Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.

The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal

European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.

Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.

  • It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
  • It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
  • What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.

Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.

Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.

UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.

If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.

All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.

15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016

The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.

27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal

French construction group Vinci is buying a majority stake in Gatwick airport for 3 billion pounds. It is expecting Gatwick airport to be busier than it is now whether Britain leaves the European Union EU with a deal or without a deal.

Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.

Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?

26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

Construction Report

Manufacturing Report

The Brexit result was a shock to everybody?

Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.

The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU.   Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds.   Anything is possible.

When anything is possible there is increased risk

Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.

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