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Compare car insurance in the UK. The cost of car insurance in the UK rises and falls. However car insurance always has a significant impact on personal and corporate budgets.
Very cheap car insurance is a little bit closer in UK
It is easy to compare cheap car insurance in UK. Whether you are responsible for your household budget or business budget it is easy to compare the cost of car insurance in UK.
It is not always to beat the car insurance renewal price. That can depend on car insurance market fluctuations.
UK car insurance premiums biggest annual fall in average price since 2014
The cost of a comprehensive motor insurance policy fell 11 percent in the UK between April and June 2018 compared to the same period last year.
Willis Towers Watson insurance brokers has reviewed the cost of car insurance in UK for confused.com. The insurance broker has found that car insurance premiums have fallen for the fourth quarter in a row.
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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
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Looking back at past mistakes to make future better
In order to move forward we must look back. If we want to create a better future for our businesses we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the past.
Sometimes you have to look back to move forward
Nobody wants to make mistakes. Where they have been made we should not repeat them
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Often we learn more from failure than success. Ultimate business performance can be higher after lessons learnt. Not reviewing risk management errors condemns you to repeating them.
Transform your business on back of past mistakes. Your past mistakes can be the foundation of your future success. However do not dwell on past mistakes. Learn lessons move on but do not keep picking wounds.
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Every day you can find multiple great ideas that could potentially disruptive the current way of doing things. My favourites at the moment are flying modes of transport that could easily replace vehicles that have to travel on roads and flying machines that briefly go to space to get to their destination quicker. They may seem like far off technological developments, but the technology works now. Its flight rules and regulations that will hold them back to protect carmakers and airplane makers not technology risks.
Everyday new innovative ideas and products flood onto the market. For most it will be like Tomorrows World. The innovative ideas will not be sustainable. We want to work with people who want to take over the world in a good way!
Your brand maybe vulnerable to others who have been thinking differently, or from changes to the marketplace. It may fail cause your performance ain’t good enough, or because your competitors change the rules of the game.
How you fail may not matter too much after you’ve failed. It will be too late to consider what you are doing wrong. Kodak didn’t want to change when they had to change to survive. They were making too much money from photographs to change to embrace digital photography. Market changes can kill the best businesses.
The best form of defence is often attack
Being more innovative or creative can be frightening. Picking the wrong horse in a paddock of new opportunities can be very costly. Innovation can also be exciting and highly rewarding.
We aim to make innovation for you more exciting and rewarding as well as reducing the uncertainties that accompany innovation and creativity. Disruptive innovators can draw on our tips advice and support to become more successful with more certainty.
Will your strategy for business success fail or fail to achieve more?
Analysing your business strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats will help you understand your business better and the marketplace within which you need to succeed. By identifying where you are now within the market will facilitate any assessment of the best strategies for future business success.
Decide how best to allocate your limited resources to get the best return of your invest of money and time
Assess which weaknesses and threats to mitigate and which to accept
Assess which strengths you need to capitalise upon
Assess which new business opportunities will bring greatest reward from the same cost of capital and management time.
Set a new strategy for business success with more confidence
Not only must you protect your business but you must explore the opportunity cost of not doing something that could bring greater rewards with the same cost.
By getting the most from your money and time you can maximise the profitability of your business.
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We are linking up with people around the world to be more innovative and to sell more profitably
It’s a big world out there! A lot of people or other businesses need what you are offering. They just need to know why you are the better than your competitors at delivering what you are offering.
We are working with like-minded individuals around the world to create new business opportunities for everyone on the bus.
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Use our tools and techniques to boost your business opportunities around the world. We can help you develop new income in your normal markets but we encourage you to look beyond the norm and aim for global domination!
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BusinessRiskTVs network of business partners and clients are collaborating to protect businesses better and grow faster. Stress testing the world economy in cooperation with like-minded individuals will break down threats into manageable portions that the network members can then digest more manageably.
Our scenario planning consultants will help business leaders and entrepreneurs analyse global risks to assess the impact on network members. They will look at political economic social technological legal and economic risk factors affecting specific countries or industries analysis the potential impact on business and identify better ways to manage threats and seize new business development opportunities.
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Next Financial Crisis Will Come Cause Have Not Learnt Lesson From 2008 Financial Crisis
Overproduction of steel and steel products is building pressure for global trade wars between USAChinaEU and the rest of the world.
Excess steel capacity should be dealt with in a global forum for the problem to avoid an escalation of trade disputes according to OECD following USAs plans to introduce import tariffs on steel.
Leaders of G20 advanced economic countries set up the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity in September 2016 to deal with the problem and charged the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD to facilitate its work.
Biggest Most Developed Countries Including G20 Unemployment Back To Pre-Financial Crisis Levels
Joblessness across 35 OECD countries fell to 5.6 percent in October 2017 down from a peak of 8.5 percent in 2010.
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New Automotive Industry Entrants and Cross Sector Collaboration Will Bring New Threats and Opportunities
31st October 2019 PSA Group the owner of Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler Agree 50 Billion Dollar Merger
The merger will create the fourth largest automotive manufacturer in the world. The merger is needed strategically due to the significant investment required by both firms to keep up with the competition. Both firms need to invest heavily in electric cars and driverless technology to be ready now never mind the future sustainability.
28th August 2019 Toyota and Suzuki Collaborating On Self Driving Car Technology
Toyota and Suzuki announce they are working together on self driving car technology.
Toyota will take a 4.9 percent share of Suzuki Motor Corp and Suzuki will invest in Toyota
22nd August 2019 Audi Daimler Ford and BMW Developing Alliance To Build Advanced Driving Assistance and Autonomous Systems According German Wirtschaftswoche Article.
The automotive manufacturers are collaborating on autonomous driving and parking systems.
The 4th industrial revolution is about to turn the automotive industry upside down rip up traditional business models and will come out the other side better and stronger but very different.
Many new features in cars and other vehicles that took a decade to normalise across the industry will need to be incorporated in a few short years. The automotive industry as always evolved but a revolution is under way.
Those who don’t keep up will be squashed to death!
Those that get on the bus will see a very different road ahead.
Those that resist change will cease to exist, and those that embrace change may or may not benefit from the changes
The pace of change within components that do or could go into vehicles is fast but the pace in which the automotive industry is changing is breath-taking, and its accelerating!
The world’s auto industry will have more customers demands to meet, but what are they going to deliver and when? Automated vehicles powered by renewable energy is nothing new. How quickly can society keep up with what is possible on the roads? Will automotive industry take to the skies! Will we get into autonomous vehicles AV and literally fly to work whilst playing computer games! Will the automobile get swallowed up whole by Google Apple and Sony?
The greatest challenge for the car industry is very similar to the greatest challenge for all gadgets gizmos plant machinery and equipment particularly those presently powered by carbon based power sources. Its battery technology that needs to change.
Tesla is leading the way not in cars but in batteries. Tesla batteries are being used to store power from the National Grid in the UK and then being fed back into the UK national electricity network when needed.
Decarbonisation is one factor driving the need to boost battery power for longer on remote items of plant and equipment like cars. However battery technology is key for all parts of global society for different reasons. In less well developed economies battery technology improvement will create new markets domestically and international trade development. In well developed economies like UK battery technology improvements will totally change what we manufacture and how we manufacture it.
Dyson cars will lock horns with Tesla cars but both will invest more in batteries than car design.
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3rd October 2018 GM and Honda New Project
General Motors and Honda have announced a partnership to develop and build an autonomous multi use vehicle together.
13th June 2018 VW Fined 1 Billion Euros By German Prosecutors
Volkswagen has been fined by German prosecutors for diesel emissions scandal. VW has already been fined by other countries for cheating the tests for diesel emissions. VW has agreed to pay more than 4 billion dollars to resolve criminal and civil penalties for installing illegal software in diesel engines to cheat USA anti pollution tests.
Understanding global risks is important for all business leaders. Identifying and assessing the global risks in 2018 is not a once a year task.
Existing risks will morph into bigger risks to your business
Small smaller risks will combine to create an aggregate risk that could even threaten the survival of your business.
Emerging risks not obvious at the time of the report, could subside and just be accepted or they could gather momentum and threaten business objectives.
In addition the risks that could threaten some businesses could present an opportunity for your business to grow faster but if you miss the start of the opportunity you could miss the boat entirely or fail to maximise the potential rewards from the opportunity.
Unlike other less dynamic reporting systems companies or entitys BusinessRiskTV will provide you with regular risk reports to help you manage enterprise risks more proactively to mitigate threats to your business better and seize new business development opportunities earlier.
In short, BusinessRiskTV is less about looking back and offering expert risk reports with hindsight and more about looking forward with more dynamic forecasts backed up with practical risk management solutions for both the upside and downside aspects to global risks as it affects your business wherever you are in the world.
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18th October 2019 Weakest Global Economy Since Financial Crisis 2008
International Monetary Fund IMF says global economy weakest since the start of the last financial crisis.
However the global economy is in a worse place now than the start of the last financial crisis. Central banks around the world back in 2008 2009 could dramatically cut interest rates to support businesses in significant debt and encourage new investment. There is very little room or no room for central banks around the world to cut interest rates.
In short the global economy is in a very high risk zone with few tools to protect itself. One way the global economy can navigate further distress is to resolve and settle all global trade wars and trade more freely.
15th October 2019 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Growth Slipping and Could Get Much Worse If Trade Wars Continue
The trade war between USA and China will cut global economic growth in 2019. It is forecast by IMF to be slowest since financial crisis in 2008.
Latest IMF World Economic Outlook projections for 2019 GDP growth reduced to 3.0 percent down from 3.2 percent in July forecast.
If the international trade disputes continue or worsen then there could be a spiral into a global recession as central banks around the world have fewer tools to protect their economies. Interest rates have already been slashed and quantitative easing or other forms of cheap money are already being deployed.
9th October 2019 Asia and Africa Are The Business Growth Zones To Focus On
Even though China is in middle of trade war with USA the rest of Asia is expanding rapidly. Growth in Asia is not as fast but compared to Europe many countries in Asia are growing around 5 times as fast with the exception of Hong Kong.
Several African countries are still growing extremely fast despite the global economic slowdown. Those that are not have massive growth potential over the next decades.
There is a global economic slowdown. A global recession is perhaps on its way if the trade wars continue. However there are parts of the world that remain in massive growth phase. Many are exporters but that does not mean its impossible to export to Asia and Africa. The low currency in the UK creates a massive opportunity for quality goods and services to be sold in Asia and Africa.
1st October 2019 Fear Of Lack Of Government Fiscal Control Is Biggest Risk Facing Businesses Around the World
The risk of a fiscal crisis is the biggest threat to business globally according to a survey from World Economic Forum.
However the biggest risk everyone can agree on is fiscal risk for governments overextending themselves which will eventually snap back to punish future generations.
Governments around the world are being partially protection by low interest rates and quantitative easing QE or cheap fake money.
As the UK cheers the end of austerity with both key political partys pledging to spend spend spend we should maybe consider the effects of UK governments excessively borrowing to spend.
Many economists are comfortable with borrowing to invest in infrastructure improvements especially when money is so cheap right now. This creates wealth in future that can payoff previous borrowing.
However borrowing more to cover in effect just daily government expenditure is very dangerous as eventually you will not be able to borrow still have same expenditure but will have a massive outstanding debt hangover that needs paying off.
The UK and USA seem to think that they can run up huge borrowing bill now. Lets hope they are right. Businesses fear they could be wrong.
4th September 2019 Expert Analysis Of Global Economy Argues The Global Economy Is Contracting Rapidly
UBS bank slashed its forecasts for world growth. The global trade war is biting harder than they thought. UBS reckons central banks around the world will have to cut interest rates to protect economic growth prevent recessions or pull some economies out of recession.
World economic growth will not be 3.2 percent as previously forecast but just 2.5 percent
1st September 2019 Tit For Tat Tariffs From USA and China Will Drag Global Economy Down Further
The USA has imposed 15 percent tariffs on Chinese imported goods from today. In total America has imposed tariffs on around 150 billion dollars of Chinese imports and has plans to impose tariffs on 300 billion dollars worth by end of 2019. The original plan was for 10 percent tariff but this has been increased to 15 percent by USA.
China has imposed 5 percent tariffs on US crude oil. In total China has imposed tariffs on around 100 billion dollars of American imports.
5th August 2019 USA Plans Additional Tariffs On China Creating More Concern About Global Slowdown
Donald Trump plans to add tariffs to more Chinese imports. The escalating trade war between USA and China is creating havoc in the global economy. Many central banks around the world have lowered interest rates to try to support business leaders investments. However more tariffs means more global pain until America and China can agree a mutually beneficial compromise.
Donald Trump plans 10% tariffs on 300 billion dollars of current Chinese imports into USA as from 1st September 2019
Only a new trade agreement will stop the a degeneration of the global economic climate. The tit for tat trade war with USA and China is affecting the whole world but is also hurting both China and USA too.
6th March 2019 OECD Cut Forecasts Global Economy In 2019 And 2020
The OECD has already downgraded global economic growth forecasts in November 2018.
International trade disputes around the world and uncertainty over Brexit will reduce world trading and lower business growth according to OECD.
The Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development OECD forecasts world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.
25th February 2019 Hopes Rise For More Global Trade
President Trump has decided to delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods. This has encouraged a brighter outlook on global trade. Hopes are rising that America and China will agree a trade deal which will support an increase in global trade.
9th January 2019 World Bank Forecasting 2.9 Percent Global Economic Growth For 2019
The World Banks assessment of global risks in 2019 has led it to conclude the global economy will continue to slow in 2019 and 2020. Global economic growth in 2020 has been pitched at 2.8 percent.
Some emerging markets may fail to fulfil potential growth opportunities
2nd January 2019 Slower Global Economic Growth In 2019
Global economic growth will slow if the hangover from 2018 continues in 2019.
Political risks on the downside threaten the fluidity of global trade which will slow economic growth. Trade tensions between USA and China and USA and Europe top the list of political risks in 2019.
Less money sloshing about in the global economy will slow global economic growth. Examples include the Eurozone closing the cash flow taps with the end of quantitative easing QE by European Central Bank ECB. In addition and perhaps more significantly the Federal Reserve in USA seem intent on continuing to increase interest rates in America which will make money a lot more expensive thus negatively impacting on economic growth in USA.
Businesses across the globe will find it harder to make a profit in 2019 and this will reduce sovereign state income from taxation and reduce corporate free money available for investment in future which will hit global economic growth.
In addition if political risks ease or reverse the global economy could actually receive a boost. For example there are indications that China is prepared to do a deal with USA. If this happens then 2019 could become a lot more positive.
Germanys private sector expansion slowed to a four year low
China November retail sales grew at the weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose the least in nearly three years due to trade dispute with USA.
The European Union EU has not thrown UK Prime Minister a bone to help her get her Brexit deal through UK parliament. This indicates it is highly likely she will have to pivot but to what?
21st November 2018 Trade Disputes and Higher Central Bank Interest Rates Are Slowing Global Economy
On the positive side there are currently no signs of a sharp economic downturn according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.
The OECD is currently forecasting that global growth would slow from 3.7 percent this year to 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020. It had previously projected 3.7 percent for 2019.
13th November 2018 Global Growth Is Slowing
According to the International Monetary Fund IMF a number of the bigger economies are slowing and they could suddenly contract should there be a major risk event.
Key global growth risk factors include
USA China trade war could increase costs globally.
Higher energy costs. Oil prices have increased by more than 60 percent in two years.
Certain higher USA interest rates are on their way but how will this impact on global consumption?
Higher USA interest rates will strengthen the dollar the worlds currency of choice. How will a significant strengthening impact on global growth.
Parts of the world are still trying to recover from the global financial crisis including Italys banks and sovereign debt. A collapse of the banking system in Italy would reverberate around the world. Greece can be bailed out Italy can not.
Global growth for 2018 to 2019 to remain at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent but the growth outlook for a number of major economies has been marked down.
17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent
Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.
16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.
Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.
14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating
Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.
Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.
Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.
27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future
Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.
Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.
Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.
If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses. Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.
7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster
The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.
2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018
Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.
If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:
America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy. When America grows so does the rest of the world. In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier. Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead. China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption. Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018. Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.
8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook
Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.
A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.
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30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production
Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.
23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension
Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.
An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?
The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.
It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.
Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.
If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.
9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events
Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.
By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.
25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely
Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.
Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.
The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.
The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.
Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.
this Parliament is a disgrace
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019
Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.
All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.
Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.
20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October
Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.
There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.
The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.
17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less
There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products
market researcher Kantar
5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September
UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.
If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.
There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.
4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced
Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.
Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.
4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?
The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.
Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.
The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.
The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.
1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them
The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.
1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012
Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.
5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham
JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.
It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.
In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.
1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.
NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.
NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.
21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!
The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!
Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.
The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one. The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.
Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU. The time for compromise has come to an end.
The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.
The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.
15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos
Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.
29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein
MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.
The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.
22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes
The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.
Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.
Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.
Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.
Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.
21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops
Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.
21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU
Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.
He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.
19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again
Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.
If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.
The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.
14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week
Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.
The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.
Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.
Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!
13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit
Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.
Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.
The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal
European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.
Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.
It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.
Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.
Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.
UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.
If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.
15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016
The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.
UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.
Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.
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Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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