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18th October 2019 USA Proposed Tariffs On European Union Goods Come Into Force Today
The United States of America USA has imposed tariffs on exports from EU to America. Products hit by USA tariffs include Airbus and Scotch Whiskies. Wine exports to USA will have 25 percent tariff from today.
9th October 2019 Europe Plans For UK Sized Hole In European Union EU Budget In Future
The UK was set to contribute 84 billion euros to EU budget over the next 6 years.
The EUs Budget Commissioner wants remaining 27 EU countries to agree to paying at least 1.114 percent of their gross domestic income and agree to no rebates on EU contributions. This is needed to help fill gap left by UK leaving EU. Germany wants to restrict it to 1 percent maximum contribution. What Germany wants Germany normally gets.
In addition the EU Budget Commissioner wants cuts to budget expenditure across the remaining 27 countries.
3rd October 2019 Europe Needs To Seize The Deal Suggested By Boris Johnson To Save The UK and Europe From Unnecessary Economic Slowdown
The global economic slowdown could easily turn into a recession. Europe is mostly a group of countries that has not fully recovered from the last financial crisis including very high unemployment in the Eurozone southern countries.
There is an offer on the table to the European Union which will squeeze through the UK parliamentary process. If the EU does not pick up the offer off the table and back it the EU will have missed an opportunity to save face and protect the EUs collapsing economy from another toppling economic domino. It will also save the UK from a dead parliamentary process blocking both Brexit and remaining in EU protecting the UK from unnecessary economic risks.
If the EU does not agree this deal the EU will get an extension to Brexit farce during which time the UK will have a General Election. The result of the election could be that the UK remains in the EU. However it could also mean the UK subsequently leaves without a deal and the EU has not room for self inflicted economic damage.
Do the deal EU and move onto other bigger economic problems that need solving.
2nd October 2019 USA To Impose Tariffs On European Union
The USA set to impose tariffs 7.5 billion euros worth of goods exported from EU to USA.
The World Trade Organisation WTO is reported as proclaiming the USA is perfectly justified in imposing tariffs on EU goods from luxury goods and to fish.
The European Union is in no fit state to have a trade war with USA. High levels of EU unemployment and slow growth perhaps even EU recession suggest it is in trouble economically. However the EU says it could retaliate with tariffs on goods imported into the EU from USA.
22nd July 2019 European Union EU Lacking Trade Agreement Progress With USA
There has seen little movement trade talks with the United States of America about trade tariffs according to Sabine Weyand the ECs new Director General of Trade at an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
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20th September 2019 European Banks Are Being Paid To Borrow Money From ECB But Still They Will Not Borrow
European banks can currently borrow money from the European Central Bank ECB at minus 0.5 percent. The European banks are being paid by the ECB to borrow more money in an attempt to shore up the failing Eurozone economy.
The recent attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy has not really tempted the European banks. They have not borrowed the money in sufficient quantities for the change of policy to work. The result will mean the ECB will need to be more creative at pumping cheap money into the European economy. These additional ways will be more risky and could lead to systemic collapse of the Eurozone.
22nd November 2018 European Union EU and United Kingdom UK Agree Draft Political Declaration On Future Relationship
Now expanded to 26 pages including
- Framework for post Brexit relationship
- Agreed at negotiator level and political level in principle
- Extraordinary EU summit scheduled for Sunday
The new document is aimed at outlining the ambitions for a future EU UK trade deal. The risks for all parties arise from whats not in the draft political agreement not whats in it.
18th November 2018 Eastern Europe Has Chronic Labour Shortage
A Eurostat survey showed a lack of workers limited production at 83 percent of Hungarian industrial companies in the third quarter and at half of Polish and 44 percent of Czech businesses.
14th November 2018 Latest Bulletin On European Union EU and USA Trading
European Union trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Wednesday that the EU has a list of potential retaliation targets ready in case President Donald Trump imposes USA autos tariffs on EU member states.
12th November 2018 European Corporate Growth Slows
European companies are delivering their most disappointing earnings in nearly three years. Slowing global growth has impacted badly on European corporate performance.
European growth risk factors include
- Slowing economic growth outside of Europe
- More trade wars especially between USA and China and USA and Europe
- Highest ever global debt levels including sovereign debt levels in European countries that still have not recovered from last financial crisis that started in 2008
- Political struggles with Italy failing to submit acceptable budget to European Commission EC and Brexit the UK leaving the European Union EU
- Higher global energy costs
- Troubles in car manufacturing industry the emissions scandal surrounding diesel cars in particular
30th October 2018 Germanys High Inflation Shows That Europe Is Failing and Eurozone Could Collapse
German inflation has hit its highest level since February 2012. German economists and bankers regularly call for an end to QE and increasing interest rates to try to dampen the effects of inflation in the German economy. Whilst Italy sets a 2019 budget that breaks European fiscal rules as it wants to pump even more money and debt into the Italian economy to try to dig itself out of a very deep economic hole.
According to Federal Statistics Office FSO Germanys inflation is overshooting ECB target by even more at 2.4 percent. The ECB says its target is to keep eurozone inflation under 2 percent. To control Germanys inflation bank interest rates need to rise and QE needs to stop. In Italy interests rates need to fall further and QE needs to continue.
How will the European Union solve a problem like Italy?
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) October 30, 2018
19th October 2018 Key Risk Factors For Europe Running Up To End Of Calendar Year
Confidence in European economy is fading away.
- European stock markets are falling reflecting the pessimist outlook for European economy
- Italy submitted budget with increased borrowing against fiscal rules. In addition concerns about the strength of Italian banks has not gone away. Almost as bad is the potential for sovereign debt to fall into the Junk status category. Italian private and public debt levels could preempt the collapse of the eurozone.
- Energy prices are rising. This increasing inflationary pressure will further impede European economic growth.
Economic growth in Europe is ebbing away as the calendar year comes to a close.
17th May 2018 EU Ready To Open Market More To USA
The European Union EU doesn’t want a trade war with USA and is now prepared to open the marketplace more to American products.
The EU is currently facing massive tariffs on steel and aluminium exports to America unless it agrees to open its markets wider to USA imports.
6th March 2018 European Union EU Extending Anti-Dumping Tariffs On China
The EU has extended anti-dumping duties of between 48.3 and 71.9 percent on stainless steel pipes from China for a further 5 years according to EU’s Official Journal.
Duties on seamless stainless steel pipes and tubes were first set in 2011. The tariffs are among 17 put in place by EU against different grades of steel and steel products made in China.
6th March 2018 France and Germany’s Rush To A Federal European Union Not Backed Up By Rest Of Europe
The first step is within the Eurozone as Macron of France and Merkel of Germany want a new “Grand Coalition”. Both seem to think the only way to stop the European Union EU falling apart is to stick it tighter together. They are right, but the rest of the EU seem less keen on the idea.
Eight northern European countries have said that the euro zone countries should focus on completing banking union, improving compliance with budget rules (something France ain’t good at) and setting up a European Monetary Fund. The big vision stuff should be left till later, they feel.
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden were referring to French proposals for deepening euro zone integration.
Macron and France’s big vision project includes joint euro zone budget or common finance ministry. Merkel and Macron seem set on removing crucial economic decision-making from member states to a central core. This will make the Eurozone more secure and EU members will be forced to join the Eurozone to make the EU more secure. However, it will take away control from member states and centralise power in the north of Europe, but even northern EU states are nervous of such plans.
The EU executive want to transform the euro zone’s government-owned-and-run bailout fund into a European Monetary Fund EMF in December 2018. France and Germany see this as a first step for increased stability (and dominance of EU by Germany and France).
23rd February 2018 Political Turmoil To Ease Or Worsen On 4th March
The outcome of the Italian general election and the German Social Democrats poll of its members on joining another German coalition government will be known on the 4th March.
The bookies favour yet another inconclusive political decision in Italy with either a minority unstable short-term Italian government or a more sticky loose coalition in government in Italy.
Germany is moving to the right politically. Eventually the Germans will force up the Eurozone interest rates and curtail QE, or German citizens will move even further right politically and that maybe a prospect no one outside Germany wants.
If interest rates are allowed to increase soon, countries like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain will suffer. They are still struggling with mass unemployment, particularly youth unemployment. Raising rates too early will snuff-out the early signs of economic recovery in these southern European countries.
21st February 2018 European Union EU Should Impose Sanctions on Slovakia If It Broke Internal Market Rules
The Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan is reported as saying that the European Commission EC should sanction Slovakia if it is using state aid to attract companies away from other EU members.
15th February 2018 European Union EU Economy Growing At Fastest Pace In Decade In 2017
The EU28 economy, including the UK, grew at its fastest rate in 10 years at 2.5 percent, according to European Union statistics office Eurostat. Particularly strong growth at the back end of the year from Germany, France and Spain helped push on growth for the EU as a whole.
23rd January 2018 Further Evidence Of Unfair Application Of European Union EU Rules
Rules designed to prevent future financial crises and inequality across the EU have been showcased in a recent European Court of Auditors report.
The European Union’s executive body the European Commission EC has never opened a single disciplinary action against any EU member government for allowing economic imbalances to grow. The EU’s lack of action to act on economic imbalances is one reason why the EU could break up.
To stop the EU breaking up it has to move closer together. Ever closer, federal union is the key to survival and prosperity, but EU member country’s may try to stop the federal union.
If the EU is to avoid political collapse of the EU without ever closer union it needs to implement the risk control measures designed to prevent and mitigate economic imbalances.
If EU countries don’t comply with EU rules then the EU country can be fined up to o.1 percent of its GDP. Countries like Italy, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Portugal and even France have avoided penalties for “excessive economic imbalances” breaching EU rules. They should have been cutting public expenditure or increased their income via higher taxes.
One the other side of the euro coin, Germany has been running excessive trade surpluses for years and 2017 saw a record trade surplus. The EU’s Excessive Imbalance Procedure should have penalised Germany. Wonder why it hasn’t? With Italy, France and Germany flouting EU rules at either end of the spectrum, smaller countries might expect more leniency in the application of EU economic rulebook. Countries like Greece should have been cut more slack and maybe it would have recovered quicker. As it is Greece may never truly recover economically.
18th January 2018 EU On EU Banks
The European Union EU says its banks bad loans at decreasing but bad loans remain very high, so high that its banks need to increase provisioning for future bad debt.
A European Commission EC report says that banks in the 28 EU countries need to protect themselves better from bad debt. The EC, and Germany in particular, wants the banks to offload more of the bad debt and will bring legislation in 2018 to force EU member countries to do so. It is part of the “every closer union” policy that has not been ditched.
Greater financial integration is the only sustainable solution for a successful EU including an expansion of the Eurozone. This may or may not be politically possible, but it is financially essential. You’re either all in or all out.
17th January 2018 ECB Supervision of Europe’s Failing Banks Is Flawed
European Union’s own European Court of Auditors say that the European Central Bank ECB has flaws in its procedures for identifying and dealing with banks in financial crisis. This calls into question the strength of the Eurozone’s weakest banks.
The auditors report says that the ECB’s supervisory unit doesn’t really know how to act to protect Eurozone bank customers should a banking crisis kick off. If it did know what to do, the supervisory unit wouldn’t be able to do it quickly enough to stop systemic banking collapse of Eurozone banking system. Let’s hope the first domino never falls!
4th January 2018 ECB QE To End In 2018
The Eurozone is growing a lot more strongly, the EU as a whole has recovered substantially and the global economy will be significantly healthier in 2018.
The bad news for some is that the ECB’s tool to support Europe back to full health will not be required by the end of 2018.
Germany is booming and many German economists want the financial taps turned off last year never mind 2018. What Germany wants, Germany shall get.
— cheeringup (@cheeringup) September 1, 2017
6th July 2017 EU Japan Agricultural Free Trade Deal Agreed
European farmers will be able to trade more freely and may increase EU agriculture exports by 20 billion euros after tariffs on EU agricultural goods is lifted.
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) June 24, 2017
— cheeringup (@cheeringup) June 8, 2017
— Risk Manager (@ERMuk) June 8, 2017
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) June 5, 2017
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) June 1, 2017
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) May 25, 2017
27th April 2017 EU Trade Commissioner EU Will Do Post Brexit Free Trade Deal With UK “For Sure”
Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU Commissioner for Trade, has said the EU bloc will reach a free trade agreement with the UK after it leaves the European Union EU. She said, “It’s uncharted territory but I’m sure we will solve it. We will have a free trade agreement, that is for sure.”
20th March 2017 UK To Trigger Article 50 To Begin Negotiations Of Terms Upon Leaving The European Union EU
The UK will trigger Article 50 on 29th March 2017 to begin Brexit negotiations with EU.
17th February 2017 European Commission President Shows How Much He Wants An EU Army
Jean-Claude Juncker tells NATO member states to resist the USA’s comments to stimulate extra spending on defense. NATO member countries have previously agreed that membership of NATO requires a minimum defense spending equivalent to 2% of GDP, yet the vast majority of NATO members don’t even get past the minimum “membership fee”. USA is by far the biggest defense spender. The majority of NATO member countries are outsourcing their defense to USA and America is saying this is unfair. It’ is unfair on America.
Juncker said in an ironic speech, at the Munich Security Conference, that the need for other NATO countries to increase spending on defense has been an American message for “many many years”. You’re damn right and look where that has got us!
The reason Juncker and his elite cronies want to resist USA is that he wants the USA to follow through with its threat to not defend Europe so that he can create an EU army and dispose of NATO. These empire builders don’t build for the benefit of European citizens. They build an empire to serve themselves, not the people.
America would be totally justified in moderating its “commitment” given that only America and one or two other countries pay their due annual membership fee. It’s not right that effectively the American people are paying for the defense of Europe’s children and way of life.
The European Union is on the brink of collapse. The European Commission EC is a joke. It doesn’t work in Europe’s best interests. For example, people like Juncker’s cronies encouraged Ukraine and other eastern block European countries to ditch Russia in favour of the EU and when Putin responds with aggression Juncker want’s his own army not NATO to defend the continent of Europe.
Most NATO / EU member countries should increase spending on defense for a host of good reasons including that it is fair to all NATO members and in the best interests of the citizens of the world.
6th February 2017 The Drive For Ever Closer Union Is A Major Reason European Union May Fall Apart
The political aspirations of the European elite is one of the major reasons fro Brexit and maybe the reason why the EU falls apart. The likelihood of a more federal Europe is remote, even if it was really the only chance of success for the EU model. What happens in France, Germany, Holland and Italy politically over the next couple of years will be the defining moment for the EU. Will further EU integration take place or will the EU as we know it splinter?
The credit rating agency, Moody’s, thinks further integration is “unlikely for the foreseeable future”. Member government’s are focused on trying to save their political lives and words about ever closer union will not help them survive.
It is likely that the political status quo will continue in the EU, but to do this there will need to be less enthusiasm for further integration – at least until they get elected!
31st January 2017 European Union EU Unemployment Rate 8.2 Percent in December 2016
EU unemployment at 8.2% is the lowest for the EU since Feb 2009. Euro area unemployment at 9.6% in Dec 2016: lowest rate since May 2009. Youth unemployment in likes of Spain and Greece still at ridiculously high levels.
23rd January 2017 European Commission EC Warns UK Off Formal Bilateral Deals Until The UK Leaves The EU
The UK is allowed under European Union (EU) rules to discuss and debate potential trade deals, but cannot negotiate free trade deals with other countries until after it leaves the EU, which means end of March 2019 at the earliest.
This seems a little petty, but the EC probably has to go through the motions of voicing this obvious fact. What is less clear is the difference between “negotiating” and “discussing”, which is why the EU statement is a little petty.
5th January 2017 Eurozone business activity at highest rate since May 2011
In December 2016, business activity in the 19 Euro Zone countries was at its highest level since May 2011, according to IHS Markit’s Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The PMI indicates that business leaders in the Euro Zone countries are confident about how their business will perform in the immediate future. Business life has returned to the Eurozone!
German economists are actually calling on the ECB to increase interest rates to stop the Eurozone economy overheating. Calm down! Germany might be about to overheat, but the other 18 countries are not likely to, in the next 12 months.
20th December 2016 European new car sales at highest level since 2007 according to JATO Dynamics.
New car sales in France and Spain were growing at the fastest rate in Europe.
15th December 2016 The UK will be able to formally start trade deal negotiations with non-European Union EU countries immediately the UK triggers Article 50 but not before
The UK will at that time be able to both formally negotiate terms of trade with the EU after the UK leaves and negotiate trade deals with all non-EU countries. If the UK cannot reach an agreement with the EU after 2 years the UK and the EU will decide what trade terms they want for each other. The UK (after maximum 2 year’s negotiation with EU) will have a maximum of 2 year’s to wait to trigger start of trade deals with non-EU countries.
Europe Business Risk Consulting
Understand the impact of risk on your business objectives. Find risk management experts to help you solve business problems more cost-effectively to make your business more successful and more sustainable regardless of the threats.. What are the top 10 business risks to trading in Europe :
- Supply Chain Disruption
- Political Risks
- Globalisation / Protectionism
- Cyber Risks
- Natural Disasters including earthquakes, flooding, storm damage
- Ever Closer Union / Break Up Of Eurozone
- Corruption and Bribery
- Inequality between countries and within countries
- Systemic Banking Collapse
- Poor Growth
Top 10 risks can occur at the same time to create “end of Europe” scenarios. Lesser risks can also combine to set up the environment from which the top 10 can bring down the whole pack of cards e.g. pandemic virus spreading across Europe.
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Access strategic operational or project risk management advice and innovative new business development solutions to manage risk and ensure business resiliency and sustainability of trading in Europe area. Identify and overcome enterprise-wide risks from doing business in Europe. Do more business in Europe by using the concept theory and practices of enterprise risk management.
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