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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
The corporate risks behind the latest news headlines put under the spotlight to identify the lessons business leaders need to learn to protect their own business. Grow faster with less uncertainty about risks on horizon or here right now.
BusinessRiskTV Risk Spotlight Early Warning Risk Identification For Business Leaders
Looking back at past mistakes to make future better
In order to move forward we must look back. If we want to create a better future for our businesses we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the past.
Sometimes you have to look back to move forward
Nobody wants to make mistakes. Where they have been made we should not repeat them
Achieve what we want from business decisions quicker and easier
Reduce risk of duplicating past mistakes by learning the lessons
Benefit from others mistakes as well as your own mistakes
Learn how to use past mistakes to make business better. Undertake risk reviews to check what went wrong and why. Develop real risk insight to build your business intelligence.
Often we learn more from failure than success. Ultimate business performance can be higher after lessons learnt. Not reviewing risk management errors condemns you to repeating them.
Transform your business on back of past mistakes. Your past mistakes can be the foundation of your future success. However do not dwell on past mistakes. Learn lessons move on but do not keep picking wounds.
Step into your future by looking back at past mistakes
Collaborate with business leaders around world. Learn lessons from their mistakes and from businesses not in the collaboration. Review business mistakes so we do not suffer same fate.
The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Financial and investment advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
Will your strategy for business success fail or fail to achieve more?
Analysing your business strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats will help you understand your business better and the marketplace within which you need to succeed. By identifying where you are now within the market will facilitate any assessment of the best strategies for future business success.
Decide how best to allocate your limited resources to get the best return of your invest of money and time
Assess which weaknesses and threats to mitigate and which to accept
Assess which strengths you need to capitalise upon
Assess which new business opportunities will bring greatest reward from the same cost of capital and management time.
Set a new strategy for business success with more confidence
Not only must you protect your business but you must explore the opportunity cost of not doing something that could bring greater rewards with the same cost.
By getting the most from your money and time you can maximise the profitability of your business.
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Next Financial Crisis Will Come Cause Have Not Learnt Lesson From 2008 Financial Crisis
Overproduction of steel and steel products is building pressure for global trade wars between USAChinaEU and the rest of the world.
Excess steel capacity should be dealt with in a global forum for the problem to avoid an escalation of trade disputes according to OECD following USAs plans to introduce import tariffs on steel.
Leaders of G20 advanced economic countries set up the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity in September 2016 to deal with the problem and charged the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD to facilitate its work.
Biggest Most Developed Countries Including G20 Unemployment Back To Pre-Financial Crisis Levels
Joblessness across 35 OECD countries fell to 5.6 percent in October 2017 down from a peak of 8.5 percent in 2010.
Coordinated enterprise risk management actions
The network will work on specific projects in a coordinated way to aggregate business assets and share benefit outcomes.
Understanding global risks is important for all business leaders. Identifying and assessing the global risks in 2018 is not a once a year task.
Existing risks will morph into bigger risks to your business
Small smaller risks will combine to create an aggregate risk that could even threaten the survival of your business.
Emerging risks not obvious at the time of the report, could subside and just be accepted or they could gather momentum and threaten business objectives.
In addition the risks that could threaten some businesses could present an opportunity for your business to grow faster but if you miss the start of the opportunity you could miss the boat entirely or fail to maximise the potential rewards from the opportunity.
Unlike other less dynamic reporting systems companies or entitys BusinessRiskTV will provide you with regular risk reports to help you manage enterprise risks more proactively to mitigate threats to your business better and seize new business development opportunities earlier.
In short, BusinessRiskTV is less about looking back and offering expert risk reports with hindsight and more about looking forward with more dynamic forecasts backed up with practical risk management solutions for both the upside and downside aspects to global risks as it affects your business wherever you are in the world.
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6th March 2019 OECD Cut Forecasts Global Economy In 2019 And 2020
The OECD has already downgraded global economic growth forecasts in November 2018.
International trade disputes around the world and uncertainty over Brexit will reduce world trading and lower business growth according to OECD.
The Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development OECD forecasts world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.
25th February 2019 Hopes Rise For More Global Trade
President Trump has decided to delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods. This has encouraged a brighter outlook on global trade. Hopes are rising that America and China will agree a trade deal which will support an increase in global trade.
9th January 2019 World Bank Forecasting 2.9 Percent Global Economic Growth For 2019
The World Banks assessment of global risks in 2019 has led it to conclude the global economy will continue to slow in 2019 and 2020. Global economic growth in 2020 has been pitched at 2.8 percent.
Some emerging markets may fail to fulfil potential growth opportunities
2nd January 2019 Slower Global Economic Growth In 2019
Global economic growth will slow if the hangover from 2018 continues in 2019.
Political risks on the downside threaten the fluidity of global trade which will slow economic growth. Trade tensions between USA and China and USA and Europe top the list of political risks in 2019.
Less money sloshing about in the global economy will slow global economic growth. Examples include the Eurozone closing the cash flow taps with the end of quantitative easing QE by European Central Bank ECB. In addition and perhaps more significantly the Federal Reserve in USA seem intent on continuing to increase interest rates in America which will make money a lot more expensive thus negatively impacting on economic growth in USA.
Businesses across the globe will find it harder to make a profit in 2019 and this will reduce sovereign state income from taxation and reduce corporate free money available for investment in future which will hit global economic growth.
In addition if political risks ease or reverse the global economy could actually receive a boost. For example there are indications that China is prepared to do a deal with USA. If this happens then 2019 could become a lot more positive.
Germanys private sector expansion slowed to a four year low
China November retail sales grew at the weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose the least in nearly three years due to trade dispute with USA.
The European Union EU has not thrown UK Prime Minister a bone to help her get her Brexit deal through UK parliament. This indicates it is highly likely she will have to pivot but to what?
21st November 2018 Trade Disputes and Higher Central Bank Interest Rates Are Slowing Global Economy
On the positive side there are currently no signs of a sharp economic downturn according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.
The OECD is currently forecasting that global growth would slow from 3.7 percent this year to 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020. It had previously projected 3.7 percent for 2019.
13th November 2018 Global Growth Is Slowing
According to the International Monetary Fund IMF a number of the bigger economies are slowing and they could suddenly contract should there be a major risk event.
Key global growth risk factors include
USA China trade war could increase costs globally.
Higher energy costs. Oil prices have increased by more than 60 percent in two years.
Certain higher USA interest rates are on their way but how will this impact on global consumption?
Higher USA interest rates will strengthen the dollar the worlds currency of choice. How will a significant strengthening impact on global growth.
Parts of the world are still trying to recover from the global financial crisis including Italys banks and sovereign debt. A collapse of the banking system in Italy would reverberate around the world. Greece can be bailed out Italy can not.
The IMF forecasts global growth for 2018 to 2019 to remain at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent but the growth outlook for a number of major economies has been marked down.
17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent
Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.
16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.
Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.
14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating
Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.
Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.
Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.
27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future
Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.
Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.
Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.
If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses. Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.
7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster
The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.
2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018
Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.
If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:
America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy. When America grows so does the rest of the world. In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier. Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead. China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption. Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018. Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.
8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook
Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.
A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.
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