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Strategic risk decision making in financial services industry is not complicated but it is complex. Reduce the complexity to what matters to your business in the financial services sector.

  • Become more efficient and productive
  • Build greater business resilience
  • Improve business performance

Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.

In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.

Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder

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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.

Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.

Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.

Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.

The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. Italian Chinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in Europe Asia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.

Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.

A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.

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3rd July 2019 Number Of Cyber Incidents Reported By UKs Financial Sector Jumps

According to the Financial Conduct Authority FCA there has been jump in the number of cyber incidents reported by the UK’s financial sector.

Under the EUs General Data Protection Regulation GDPR financial sector businesses must report certain types of security breaches.

Many financial industry businesses are still trying to get the basics right on cyber risk management.

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2008 should have been the watershed moment for the financial services sector and banking in particular to implement systemic changes to incorporate enterprise risk management principles and practices.

Financial services companies have continued to bring to market products that have led to claims for compensation. Nonsense of putting the customer first is often uttered in the financial services sector.

The reality is that the financial services sector risk management culture is still systemically broken and it is likely to lead to the next financial crisis. A financial crisis comes along roughly every 10 years. As we look towards 2019 the next financial crisis is overdue.

How will the next financial crisis manifest itself? Not known. Will it happen? Almost certainly. Most countries have not fully recovered from the last financial crisis. Their economies are still very weak. Even the strong are comparatively weak. This means we may never recover from the next financial crisis and so should do more to make sure the next financial crisis is avoided or mitigated.

Most likely cause of the next financial crisis is the compounding and aggregation of financial risk.

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The last financial crisis grew and exploded from the productionisation of simple debt prototype ideas thought up by people who thought they were masters of the world. Despite the new false perception that after ten years we have now paid our dues we are in fact drowning in more unpaid debt than ever.

Unpaid debt will continue to be wrapped up in shiny new marketing material designed to protect the buyers from the toxicity of the core material. Piled high and sold cheap these debt instruments will be combined and recombined. The new for old debt products will build the tower that will be the start of the beginning of the end for many a business in the next financial crisis.

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How are G2O countries and large economic areas impacting on your business risks

Our enterprise risk magazines keep you up to date with the latest news opinions risk analysis and business reviews.

The global economy is recovering slowly. 2018 could see a leap in global business activity as key countries like China and America suck in more trade and export more. Some Eurozone countries are growing very fast in comparison to recent years and the Eurozone as a whole is growing once again.

Find out how risks in the biggest countries or trade areas in the world creates threats and opportunities for your business wherever you are in the world and wherever you want to export to.

It would help if the G20 countries could create business opportunities more than they create threats for the benefit of the whole world including emerging economies. However you may also need to take actions to mitigate the impact of these countries on your business.

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UK Economy Weak Start To 2018 Due To Weather Not Economic Climate

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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.

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Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney

Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.

In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.

With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.

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Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.

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Future Of The High Street

What do people want from the High Street

Not just shops! Just shopping on the High Street is no longer enough for the consumer nor the High Street. We have to be a bit smarter more innovative and put into action a more radical approach to delivering what people want from the High Street now.

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The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less

Britains High Streets have a bright future if entrepreneurs business leaders and local planners are a bit smarter

The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less if we work at building a better future for the High Street in UK.

Retail therapy is still important to many but the High Street can do so much more for the local community

Retail experts have a role to play on the High Street in the UK. They need to be a bit more imaginative creative and innovative to deliver a High Street fit for the future. Selling stuff is no longer enough. Entrepreneurial retailers will sell experiences night and day.

The notice of the Death of the High Street is premature!

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Looking Back To Move Forward

Looking back at past mistakes to make future better

In order to move forward we must look back. If we want to create a better future for our businesses we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the past.

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Sometimes you have to look back to move forward

Nobody wants to make mistakes. Where they have been made we should not repeat them

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Learn how to use past mistakes to make business better. Undertake risk reviews to check what  went wrong and why. Develop real risk insight to build your business intelligence.

Often we learn more from failure than success. Ultimate business performance can be higher after lessons learnt. Not reviewing risk management errors condemns you to repeating them.

Transform your business on back of past mistakes. Your past mistakes can be the foundation of your future success. However do not dwell on past mistakes. Learn lessons move on but do not keep picking wounds.

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Financial Services Jobs At Risk Of Automation

The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit

Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.

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Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job

No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!

Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.

However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!

FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be

  • less emotional
  • more reliable and
  • after a few years significantly cheaper

How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!

Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.

  • Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
  • Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
  • C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
  • Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
  • Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!

Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!

However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.

Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk

  • Mortgage advice
  • Financial and investment advice
  • Insurance advice
  • Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!

Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!

There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!

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Understand the bigger picture first. When you know what risk you have then manage it.

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Understanding global risks is important for all business leaders. Identifying and assessing the global risks in 2018 is not a once a year task.

  1. Existing risks will morph into bigger risks to your business
  2. Small smaller risks will combine to create an aggregate risk that could even threaten the survival of your business.
  3. Emerging risks not obvious at the time of the report, could subside and just be accepted or they could gather momentum and threaten business objectives.

In addition the risks that could threaten some businesses could present an opportunity for your business to grow faster but if you miss the start of the opportunity you could miss the boat entirely or fail to maximise the potential rewards from the opportunity.

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5th August 2019 USA Plans Additional Tariffs On China Creating More Concern About Global Slowdown 

Donald Trump plans to add tariffs to more Chinese imports. The escalating trade war between USA and China is creating havoc in the global economy. Many central banks around the world have lowered interest rates to try to support business leaders investments. However more tariffs means more global pain until America and China can agree a mutually beneficial compromise.

Donald Trump plans 10% tariffs on 300 billion dollars of current Chinese imports into USA as from 1st September 2019

Only a new trade agreement will stop the a degeneration of the global economic climate. The tit for tat trade war with USA and China is affecting the whole world but is also hurting both China and USA too.

6th March 2019 OECD Cut Forecasts Global Economy In 2019 And 2020

The OECD has already downgraded global economic growth forecasts in November 2018.

International trade disputes around the world and uncertainty over Brexit will reduce world trading and lower business growth according to OECD.

The Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development OECD forecasts world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.

25th February 2019 Hopes Rise For More Global Trade

President Trump has decided to delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods. This has encouraged a brighter outlook on global trade. Hopes are rising that America and China will agree a trade deal which will support an increase in global trade.

9th January 2019 World Bank Forecasting 2.9 Percent Global Economic Growth For 2019

The World Banks assessment of global risks in 2019 has led it to conclude the global economy will continue to slow in 2019 and 2020. Global economic growth in 2020 has been pitched at 2.8 percent.

Risk factors include

  • Trade war between China and USA
  • Brexit risk damaging UK growth and European Union EU growth
  • Some emerging markets may fail to fulfil potential growth opportunities

2nd January 2019 Slower Global Economic Growth In 2019

Global economic growth will slow if the hangover from 2018 continues in 2019.

  • Political risks on the downside threaten the fluidity of global trade which will slow economic growth. Trade tensions between USA and China and USA and Europe top the list of political risks in 2019.
  • Less money sloshing about in the global economy will slow global economic growth. Examples include the Eurozone closing the cash flow taps with the end of quantitative easing QE by European Central Bank ECB. In addition and perhaps more significantly the Federal Reserve in USA seem intent on continuing to increase interest rates in America which will make money a lot more expensive thus negatively impacting on economic growth in USA.
  • Businesses across the globe will find it harder to make a profit in 2019 and this will reduce sovereign state income from taxation and reduce corporate free money available for investment in future which will hit global economic growth.

On the upside could be lower energy costs from the continued oversupply of oil to the marketplace suppressing the price of oil and products made from oil.

In addition if political risks ease or reverse the global economy could actually receive a boost. For example there are indications that China is prepared to do a deal with USA. If this happens then 2019 could become a lot more positive.


14th December 2018 Weak China and Europe Economic Data Reported

Worries of continuing global economic slowdown spread to stock markets around the world.

The Euro zone economy is expanding at slowest pace in over four years due to global trade restrictions and particularly poor economic performance in France.

  • Germanys private sector expansion slowed to a four year low
  • China  November retail sales grew at the weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose the least in nearly three years due to trade dispute with USA.

The European Union EU has not thrown UK Prime Minister a bone to help her get her Brexit deal through UK parliament. This indicates it is highly likely she will have to pivot but to what?

21st November 2018 Trade Disputes and Higher Central Bank Interest Rates Are Slowing Global Economy

On the positive side there are currently no signs of a sharp economic downturn according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.

The OECD is currently forecasting that global growth would slow from 3.7 percent this year to 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020. It had previously projected 3.7 percent for 2019.

13th November 2018 Global Growth Is Slowing

According to the International Monetary Fund IMF a number of the bigger economies are slowing and they could suddenly contract should there be a major risk event.

Key global growth risk factors include

  • USA China trade war could increase costs globally.
  • Higher energy costs. Oil prices have increased by more than 60 percent in two years.
  • Certain higher USA interest rates are on their way but how will this impact on global consumption?
  • Higher USA interest rates will strengthen the dollar the worlds currency of choice. How will a significant strengthening impact on global growth.
  • Parts of the world are still trying to recover from the global financial crisis including Italys banks and sovereign debt. A collapse of the banking system in Italy would reverberate around the world. Greece can be bailed out Italy can not.

The IMF forecasts global growth for 2018 to 2019 to remain at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent but the growth outlook for a number of major economies has been marked down.


17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent

Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.

16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.

Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.

14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating

Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.

Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.

Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.

27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future

Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.

Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.

Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.

If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses.   Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.

7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster

The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.

2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018

Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.

If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:

  • America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy.   When America grows so does the rest of the world.   In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
  • Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier.   Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
  • Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
  • Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead.   China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption.   Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
  • The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
  • The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018.   Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
  • Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.

We’ll look back on 2018 as the real start of the 4th Industrial Revolution as many new developments will turn into fast growing businesses and global productivity will start to increase overcoming the bad old days of doing business.

8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook

Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.

A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.

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8th October 2017 International Monetary Fund IMF Managing Director Says We Need More Training

Christine Lagarde thinks global business leaders need more education and training to make global business recovery sustainable.

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