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In today’s rapidly changing business environment, risk management has become an essential function for any organisation. Business risk management analysis is the process of identifying, assessing, and prioritising risks that could affect a company’s operations, assets, and reputation. It involves analysing potential threats and taking steps to mitigate or avoid them.
BusinessRiskTV.com is a platform that helps businesses to identify and manage their risks. The platform provides a range of resources, including articles, videos, webinars, and expert insights. It aims to help businesses understand the importance of risk management and to provide practical guidance on how to implement effective risk management strategies.
The first step in business risk management analysis is to identify potential risks. This can be done by conducting a thorough analysis of the company’s operations, processes, and assets. This should include a review of the company’s financial statements, operations manuals, and risk management policies. It may also involve conducting interviews with key stakeholders and conducting a survey of employees to identify potential risks.
Once potential risks have been identified, the next step is to assess the likelihood and potential impact of each risk. This involves analysing data and using tools such as risk matrices, scenario analysis, and probability models to estimate the likelihood and potential impact of each risk. The assessment should take into account the company’s business objectives, financial resources, and risk tolerance.
After assessing the risks, the next step is to prioritise them based on their likelihood and potential impact. This involves ranking the risks in order of importance and focusing resources on the risks that pose the greatest threat to the company. The prioritisation process should take into account the company’s strategic priorities and risk management objectives.
Once risks have been prioritised, the next step is to develop risk management strategies to mitigate or avoid the identified risks. This may involve implementing controls and procedures to reduce the likelihood or potential impact of the risk. It may also involve transferring the risk to a third party through insurance or outsourcing.
Finally, it is important to monitor and review the effectiveness of the risk management strategies on an ongoing basis. This involves tracking key performance indicators and reviewing risk management policies and procedures regularly. It may also involve conducting periodic risk assessments to identify new risks and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing risk management strategies.
Business risk management analysis is an essential function for any organisation. It helps businesses to identify potential risks and to implement effective strategies to manage those risks. BusinessRiskTV.com provides businesses with the resources and guidance they need to implement effective risk management strategies and to protect their operations, assets, and reputation.
Managing opportunities and risks better with BusinessRiskTV. Business opportunities come with business risks. External and internal risk drivers will impact on business objectives negatively and positively. Controlling business risks and opportunities can secure greater business success and build stronger business resilience. Identify assess and control business risks better with articles and videos on BusinessRiskTV. Monitor business risks to your business objectives to protect and grow your business faster.
What are the risk and opportunities in business
Managing business risks is a critical business issue all business leaders face. However not all business leaders face the same business risks. Similar businesses can have the same business risks but may have different resources deployed in business risk management. Opportunities for business leaders to grow their business fast are always available to you if you look and take the best course of action. Understand the top business risks facing your business with help tips and support from BusinessRiskTV
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Risk Profile v Risk Appetite – Risk tolerance vs risk appetite is important to understand. If you do not know what your risk profile is you cannot manage your business risks better. Could you increase your appetite for risk to achieve more business success? What is your risk tolerance?
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Guidance On Enterprise Risk Management On BusinessRiskTV
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ERM Framework Implementation
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is the process of identifying, assessing, prioritising, and managing risks that could affect an organisation’s ability to achieve its objectives. In today’s fast-paced business environment, organizations face numerous risks, such as financial, operational, strategic, regulatory, reputational, and cybersecurity. The failure to manage these risks could lead to severe consequences, such as financial loss, legal liability, damage to reputation, and even business failure.
Therefore, it’s critical for organizations to implement a robust ERM framework to identify and mitigate risks that could potentially harm the organization. In this article, we will provide guidance on how organisations can implement an effective ERM framework to manage risks.
Establishing an ERM framework The first step in implementing ERM is to establish a framework that outlines the organisation’s risk management policies, procedures, and practices. The framework should define the roles and responsibilities of the risk management team, establish risk assessment methodologies, and identify the key risk indicators (KRIs) that will be used to monitor risks.
The ERM framework should also identify the organisation’s risk appetite, which refers to the level of risk that the organisation is willing to accept in pursuit of its objectives. The risk appetite should be clearly defined and communicated to all stakeholders, including employees, investors, customers, and regulators.
The ERM framework should be aligned with the organisation’s strategic objectives, and the risk management team should work closely with the senior management team to ensure that risk management is integrated into the organisation’s decision-making process.
Conducting a risk assessment The next step in implementing ERM is to conduct a risk assessment, which involves identifying, analysing, and evaluating risks that could potentially harm the organisation. The risk assessment should be based on a systematic and comprehensive approach that considers all the potential risks that the organisation faces.
The risk assessment should consider both internal and external factors that could affect the organisation’s ability to achieve its objectives. Internal factors include the organisation’s culture, structure, processes, and people, while external factors include economic, political, technological, and regulatory factors.
The risk assessment should also consider the likelihood and impact of each risk and prioritise them based on their significance. The risk assessment should be updated periodically to ensure that new risks are identified and managed.
Developing a risk management plan Once the risks have been identified and prioritised, the next step is to develop a risk management plan that outlines the actions that will be taken to manage each risk. The risk management plan should consider the risk appetite of the organisation and the resources that are available to manage the risks.
The risk management plan should include specific measures to mitigate each risk, such as risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk transfer, and risk acceptance. Risk avoidance involves eliminating the risk altogether, while risk reduction involves implementing measures to reduce the likelihood or impact of the risk. Risk transfer involves transferring the risk to another party, such as an insurance company, while risk acceptance involves accepting the risk and managing it within the organisation’s risk appetite.
The risk management plan should also identify the stakeholders who will be responsible for managing each risk and the KRIs that will be used to monitor the risks. The risk management plan should be reviewed periodically to ensure that it remains effective and relevant.
Implementing risk management controls The next step in implementing ERM is to implement risk management controls to manage the risks. Risk management controls are the policies, procedures, and practices that are implemented to manage the risks identified in the risk assessment.
Risk management controls should be designed to ensure that the organisation operates within its risk appetite and that the risks are managed effectively. Risk management controls should be integrated into the organisation’s processes and systems to ensure that they are followed consistently.
Monitoring and reporting on risks The final step in implementing ERM is to monitor and report on risks. Monitoring involves tracking the effectiveness of the risk management controls and the KRIs that were identified in the risk management plan. The monitoring process should be designed to detect any changes in the risk environment and to ensure that the risk management controls remain effective.
Reporting involves communicating the results of the risk management process to stakeholders, such as the board of directors, senior management, investors, customers, and regulators. The reporting should provide an accurate and comprehensive view of the organisation’s risk exposure and the effectiveness of the risk management controls.
Reporting should also include any significant changes in the risk environment and any emerging risks that could potentially impact the organisation. Reporting should be timely, accurate, and relevant to ensure that stakeholders have the information they need to make informed decisions.
ERM is a critical process that organisations must implement to manage the risks they face. ERM involves identifying, assessing, prioritising, and managing risks that could potentially harm the organisation.
To implement an effective ERM framework, organizations must establish a framework that outlines the risk management policies, procedures, and practices. They must conduct a comprehensive risk assessment that considers all the potential risks that the organisation faces and prioritise them based on their significance.
They must develop a risk management plan that outlines the actions that will be taken to manage each risk and implement risk management controls to manage the risks. Finally, they must monitor and report on risks to ensure that the risk management process remains effective and relevant.
By implementing an effective ERM framework, organisations can mitigate the risks they face and achieve their objectives in a safe and sustainable manner. The ERM framework should be reviewed and updated periodically to ensure that it remains effective and relevant to the changing risk environment.
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You cannot change what happened but you can learn from it. However dwelling on past mistakes is not productive.
Mitigate negative impact of risk event and secure any benefits from risk event. Good can often come out of bad.
Learn lessons from risk events and move on quickly
Do not dwell on risk event impact as constantly punishing people from mistakes of past can be very demoralising and negatively impact on future business performance.
After the risk event make sure your risk management plan for future seeks to ensure it does not happen again but do not over do the risk controls. Reflecting on the lessons from the risk event facts is important but do not let emotions and pain of risk event change the risk perception of future likelihood of recurrence especially after some additional risk controls adopted maintained and reviewed.
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Taking more risks to achieve more success comes down to risk knowledge and business intelligence. A lack of risk knowledge leads to increased fear. This can result in missed opportunities to grow faster.
What are the potential costs of taking more risks?
What are the potential benefits of taking more risks?
How will taking more risks benefit your business?
What are the alternatives?
How much better would your business perform if the best case scenario came true?
What are the worst outcomes that could happen if you took extra risks and how could you reduce the risk?
How bad would it be if the worst case scenario risk event materialised?
What would your business look like in 5 years if your risk decisions were taken?
Assessing the risks incorporating both upside and downside risks will enable you to make more balanced business decisions to improve performance.
Risk Appetite and Risk Tolerance
Negativity bias means in part we focus more on stopping bad things from happening than creating the environment for great good things to happen. For example, we focus on stopping climate damage instead of investing money in better natural environment. We spend more money to risk control instead of seizing new business opportunities which create risk but also create more rewards for risk takers.
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Embrace the opportunities in the new decade but be risk aware about the threats that come with the opportunities to grow. Work together with our network of business leaders and risk management experts to finish the 2020s better than you started.
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Emerging trends in business management debated risk analysed and risk controls reviewed. What emerging trends in business management must you know about today? Consumers and business decision makers have easy access to business intelligence so business leaders need to use business intelligence more in risk management strategy setting to grow faster. Due to the rapidly changing business environment and increased nationalism it may be better to have shorter supply chains. Alternatively restructure your supply chains to embrace new cost saving opportunities in supply.
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There are a number of key factors that led to successful business. Successful business leaders understand that being in business is about managing the risks from change. Unsuccessful business leaders tend to blame their failures on economic climate changes and their successes on their brilliant business management skills!
The UK retail sector is suffering major painful changes. Tens of thousands of jobs have been lost as major retailers collapsed or contracted. Yet the UK retail marketplace has some examples of major retailers bucking this trend blamed on the UK economy by unsuccessful retail business managers.
By applying their risk management knowledge successful businesses can act quicker and with more confidence it will work out
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Not taking risks is not an option for most business leaders. However many risk factors coming together can appear daunting. Enterprise risk management looks at the big picture and helps you identify the steps to a better business in future.
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Business risk assessment elements should fit your business culture. Some people do not like numbers. Some do. Your business risk assessment template should reflect the culture of your organisation.
A business risk assessment is a systematic process that helps organisations identify, evaluate, and prioritise risks that may impact their operations, financial performance, and reputation. It is an essential tool for managing risk and ensuring the long-term viability of a business.
There are several key elements that a business risk assessment should include:
Identifying the risks: The first step in the risk assessment process is to identify the potential risks that the business may face. This can include internal risks, such as operational inefficiencies or employee misconduct, as well as external risks, such as market changes or natural disasters.
Evaluating the risks: Once the risks have been identified, the next step is to evaluate their potential impact on the business. This includes considering the likelihood of each risk occurring, as well as the potential consequences if it does.
Prioritising the risks: After evaluating the risks, the next step is to prioritise them based on their potential impact on the business. This will help the organisation focus its resources on the most significant risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.
Developing risk management strategies: Once the risks have been prioritised, the next step is to develop strategies to mitigate them. This can include implementing control measures to prevent or reduce the likelihood of risks occurring, or transferring the risk to another party through insurance or other means.
Monitoring and reviewing the risks: The risk assessment process is ongoing and should be regularly reviewed and updated to ensure that it remains relevant and effective. This includes monitoring the risks and identifying any new or emerging risks that may have arisen since the last assessment.
In summary, a business risk assessment should include the following key elements:
Identifying the risks
Evaluating the risks
Prioritizing the risks
Developing risk management strategies
Monitoring and reviewing the risks
Every business faces risks that could be a threat to its success
The business leaders who are better prepared for these risks and have a cost effective risk management plan and business strategy are more likely to be more successful.
Enterprise Wide Risk Assessment For Faster Business Growth With Best Use Of Business Assets
Develop a suitable risk assessment process to assist with your risk management plan preparation. Review your existing risk management process to ensure it is fit for purpose in a rapidly changing marketplace. Successful entrepreneurs have a good strategic operational and project risk management attitude and business culture that is flexible enough to cope with any economic environment.
There are numerous factors that can contribute to the success of a business. Here are some key factors that are often considered critical for building and maintaining a successful business:
Clear Vision and Strategy: A successful business requires a clear vision and a well-defined strategy. This includes setting goals, defining the direction of the business, and developing a roadmap to achieve those goals.
Market Research and Understanding Customer Needs: Understanding the market and identifying customer needs are essential for success. Conducting thorough market research, identifying target customers, and tailoring products or services to meet their needs is critical in building a successful business.
Strong Leadership: Effective leadership is crucial for the success of any business. It involves providing direction, making decisions, motivating employees, and fostering a positive work culture. Strong leadership skills help in guiding the business through challenges and achieving the desired outcomes.
Financial Management: Proper financial management, including budgeting, cash flow management, and financial planning, is vital for the long-term success of a business. Sound financial management practices help in ensuring that the business remains financially stable and can weather economic uncertainties.
Quality Products or Services: Delivering high-quality products or services is essential for building a loyal customer base. Providing value to customers and consistently meeting or exceeding their expectations builds trust and helps in retaining customers, which is critical for the success of any business.
Effective Marketing and Branding: Successful businesses understand the importance of effective marketing and branding. Creating a strong brand presence, developing marketing strategies to reach the target audience, and promoting products or services effectively can lead to increased visibility, customer acquisition, and revenue growth.
Innovation and Adaptability: In today’s dynamic business environment, innovation and adaptability are crucial for success. Successful businesses continuously innovate, adapt to changing market trends, and find new ways to stay relevant and competitive in the market.
Efficient Operations and Processes: Streamlining operations and processes can improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance customer satisfaction. Implementing effective systems and processes, optimising the supply chain, and leveraging technology can lead to improved productivity and operational excellence.
Talented and Engaged Workforce: A skilled and motivated workforce is vital for the success of any business. Hiring and retaining top talent, providing opportunities for growth and development, fostering a positive work culture, and promoting employee engagement can lead to higher productivity and overall business success.
Customer Relationship Management: Building strong customer relationships is crucial for long-term success. Providing excellent customer service, maintaining open lines of communication, addressing customer feedback, and building customer loyalty are key factors that contribute to the success of a business. These are some of the key factors that can contribute to the success of a business. However, it’s important to note that success is multifaceted and can vary depending on the industry, market, and individual circumstances. It’s essential to carefully plan, execute, and continuously adapt to changing circumstances to achieve long-term business success.
Strategic Partnerships and Networking: Collaborating with strategic partners and building a strong network can provide valuable opportunities for business growth. Strategic partnerships can help access new markets, share resources, and leverage complementary strengths, while networking can lead to new business leads, partnerships, and valuable industry insights.
Risk Management: Successful businesses recognize the importance of managing risks. This includes identifying and mitigating potential risks, having contingency plans in place, and being prepared to handle unexpected challenges. Effective risk management can help protect the business from potential setbacks and ensure its resilience.
Flexibility and Adaptability: Business environments can change rapidly, and successful businesses are agile and adaptable. Being open to change, willing to pivot when necessary, and embracing innovation can help a business stay ahead of the competition and navigate through uncertainties.
Continuous Learning and Improvement: Successful businesses are always learning and improving. Keeping up with industry trends, staying updated with technology, and seeking feedback from customers and employees can provide valuable insights for making informed decisions and driving continuous improvement.
Strong Customer Focus: Putting the customer at the center of the business is crucial for success. Understanding customer preferences, delivering excellent customer experiences, and building customer loyalty can lead to repeat business, positive word-of-mouth, and a strong brand reputation.
Ethical and Responsible Business Practices: Operating with integrity, practicing ethical business standards, and being socially responsible can build trust and credibility with customers, employees, and other stakeholders. Demonstrating responsible business practices can contribute to long-term success and sustainability.
Resilience and Persistence: Building a successful business is not always easy, and setbacks and failures are inevitable. Successful businesses demonstrate resilience, learn from failures, and persist in the face of challenges. Perseverance, determination, and the ability to bounce back from setbacks are key traits of successful entrepreneurs.
Long-term Planning and Goal-setting: Having a long-term vision and setting realistic goals is important for business success. Long-term planning allows for strategic decision-making, resource allocation, and monitoring progress towards achieving business objectives.
Adapting to Digital Transformation: In today’s digital age, successful businesses embrace digital transformation. This includes leveraging technology for automation, digital marketing, data analysis, and online presence to stay competitive and meet changing customer preferences.
Monitoring and Measuring Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): Successful businesses monitor and measure key performance indicators (KPIs) to track progress, identify areas for improvement, and make data-driven decisions. Regularly analysing KPIs provides insights into the health and performance of the business and helps in making informed decisions.
In conclusion, building and maintaining a successful business requires a combination of various factors. It’s important to have a clear vision, understand the market and customer needs, demonstrate effective leadership, manage finances wisely, deliver quality products or services, market and brand effectively, innovate, and adapt to changing environments. Additionally, building a strong team, managing risks, focusing on customer satisfaction, practicing responsible business ethics, and being resilient and persistent are key factors that contribute to long-term business success.
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Sometimes we have to accept the risks our businesses face to achieve our goals. Taking no action to control the risks does not mean you have not managed the risk. It means you have identified and assessed it and proactively choose to accept it as the risk is within your risk tolerance and appetite for risk.
The other extreme is that you avoid the risk identified. The risk is beyond your risk tolerance and appetite for risk to pursuance of your business objectives.
Developing a balanced risk management action plan is not easy but it should be simple to work well.
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Taking the right steps to manage risks will boost your business performance with less uncertainty.
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There is always room for improvement. Better risk management will mean your business is better prepared for the future. Improve performance regardless of business environment.
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Strategic risk decision making in financial services industry is not complicated but it is complex. Reduce the complexity to what matters to your business in the financial services sector.
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Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.
In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.
Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder
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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.
Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.
Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.
Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.
The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. ItalianChinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in EuropeAsia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.
Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.
A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.
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Globally Empty Office Buildings and Commercial Property Creating Debt Collapse, Systemic Threat to Banking System Worldwide
The COVID-19 pandemic and central banks response – overprinting of money out of thin air – has had a devastating impact on the global economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than in the commercial real estate sector. As businesses have been forced to close or operate remotely, millions of square feet of office space have been vacated, leaving office buildings empty around the world.
This has led to a sharp decline in property values, and many commercial real estate owners are now facing significant financial losses. In some cases, these losses have become so severe that they have forced property owners to default on their loans, which could have a ripple effect throughout the global banking system.
Who Has the Most Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
The financial institutions that have the most exposure to commercial real estate are those that specialise in lending to businesses and developers. These institutions include commercial banks, investment banks, regional banks in USA and insurance companies.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, commercial banks worldwide have about $20 trillion in outstanding loans to commercial real estate borrowers. This represents about 10% of all bank lending globally.
Investment banks and insurance companies also have significant exposure to commercial real estate. Investment banks, for example, often underwrite and market commercial real estate bonds, which are a type of debt security that is backed by the income generated from rental properties. Insurance companies, on the other hand, often invest in commercial real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are companies that own and operate income-producing properties.
Are Banks in Danger?
The sharp decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns that banks could be in danger of suffering significant losses on their loans to commercial real estate borrowers. In some cases, these losses could be so severe that they could force banks to default on their own debts, which could lead to a systemic financial crisis.
However, it is important to note that banks have a variety of tools at their disposal to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. For example, banks can sell off their commercial real estate loans to other investors, or they can take steps to restructure the terms of these loans. At the same time if the sea level is going down for all banks in real estate debt crisis will there be enough saviours?
In addition, the government can also play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market. For example, the government can provide financial assistance to banks that are struggling with commercial real estate losses, or it can provide tax breaks to businesses that are considering moving back into office space. At the same time this is inflationary and may result in even higher interest rates – problem delayed but worsened thereby extending and increasing length of recession creating depression.
How Many Office Buildings Are Empty in the US?
According to a recent survey by the commercial real estate firm CBRE, about 15% of office space in the United States is currently vacant. This represents about 250 million square feet of empty office space.
The vacancy rate is highest in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. In these cities, the vacancy rate is often above 20%.
The vacancy rate is also high in some smaller cities and towns. For example, the vacancy rate in the city of Detroit is currently over 30%.
These, official, vacancy rates seem lower than real levels other agencies produce and anecdotally.
Why Are the Banks in Trouble?
The banks are in trouble because they have lent too much money to commercial real estate borrowers. When these borrowers default on their loans, the banks are left holding the bag.
The banks are also in trouble because the value of their commercial real estate assets has declined. This decline in value has made it more difficult for the banks to sell these assets, and it has also reduced the amount of collateral that they have available to secure their loans.
The banks are also facing increased competition from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and hedge funds. These non-bank lenders are often willing to lend money to commercial real estate borrowers at lower interest rates than the banks.
Conclusion
The global pandemic has had a devastating impact on the commercial real estate sector, and this has led to significant financial losses for banks and other financial institutions. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as more and more businesses continue to operate remotely. If it gets worse it will be a very long time – decades – before it gets better!
The government will need to play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market, and banks will need to take steps to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. If these steps are not taken, the global banking system could be in danger of a systemic crisis.
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Managing Risk in Financial Services
Managing Risk in the Ever-Evolving Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry is a complex and dynamic sector that plays a vital role in the global economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including banking, insurance, investment management, and more. However, with the constant changes and uncertainties in the business landscape, managing risk has become a critical aspect of the financial services industry. In this article, we will explore the challenges and best practices of managing risk in the ever-evolving financial services industry.
The Changing Landscape of the Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry has gone through significant changes over the years, driven by various factors such as technological advancements, regulatory reforms, economic fluctuations, and changing customer preferences. These changes have brought new opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in this industry.
One of the significant changes in the financial services industry is the increasing reliance on technology. The digital revolution has transformed the way financial services are delivered and consumed. Fintech companies have emerged, leveraging technology to disrupt traditional financial services providers. This has resulted in increased competition and the need for traditional financial institutions to adapt and innovate to stay relevant.
Another change in the financial services industry is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies around the world have implemented stringent regulations to safeguard consumers and ensure financial stability. These regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States and the MiFID II directive in the European Union, have increased compliance requirements for financial services firms. Non-compliance can result in severe penalties and reputational damage, making effective risk management essential.
Economic fluctuations also impact the financial services industry. Economic downturns can lead to increased credit risk, market volatility, and liquidity challenges, while economic upturns can present growth opportunities. As the global economy becomes increasingly interconnected, events in one part of the world can have ripple effects on financial markets globally, making risk management more complex and critical.
Lastly, changing customer preferences and behaviors have also impacted the financial services industry. Customers now demand personalized and convenient financial services, with a focus on transparency and trust. This has led to a shift in business models, with a greater emphasis on customer-centricity and digital engagement. Firms need to understand customer preferences and manage reputational risk to maintain customer trust and loyalty.
Challenges in Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry
The evolving landscape of the financial services industry has brought about several challenges in managing risk effectively. Some of the significant challenges include:
Increasing Complexity: The financial services industry is highly complex, with numerous products, services, and processes. Risk managers need to understand the intricacies of various financial instruments, business models, and regulatory requirements to identify and manage risks effectively.
Changing Regulations: The regulatory landscape is constantly evolving, with new regulations being introduced and existing ones amended. Financial services firms need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure compliance, which requires significant resources and expertise.
Cybersecurity Risks: The increasing reliance on technology has also exposed the financial services industry to cybersecurity risks. Cyber threats, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, can result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, political instability, and sanctions, can have significant impacts on the financial services industry. These events can affect global markets, currencies, and investment portfolios, leading to increased volatility and risk exposure.
Reputation Risk: Reputation is crucial in the financial services industry, and any damage to reputation can have severe consequences. Negative public perception, loss of customer trust, and regulatory scrutiny can all result in significant financial and operational impacts.
Operational Risks: The complex and interconnected nature of the financial services industry also presents operational risks. Operational failures, such as system outages, processing errors, and human errors, can disrupt business operations, cause financial losses, and harm reputation.
Risk of Financial Crime: Financial services firms are also exposed to risks related to financial crime, including money laundering, fraud, and corruption. These risks can arise from internal or external sources and can result in regulatory penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Risk from Emerging Technologies: The rapid pace of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrency, presents both opportunities and risks for the financial services industry. Firms need to understand the risks associated with emerging technologies and implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate them.
Best Practices for Managing Risk in the Financial Services Industry
Given the challenges and complexities of managing risk in the financial services industry, it is essential for firms to adopt best practices to effectively mitigate risks. Here are some key best practices for managing risk in the financial services industry:
Develop a Robust Risk Management Framework: Financial services firms should establish a comprehensive risk management framework that includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting. This framework should be integrated into the firm’s overall strategy, operations, and decision-making processes.
Embrace a Risk Culture: Establishing a strong risk culture is critical for effective risk management. It involves fostering a culture where risk awareness and accountability are embedded in the organisation’s values, behaviours, and practices. This includes promoting open communication, risk transparency, and learning from mistakes.
Stay Abreast of Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is heavily regulated, and firms need to stay updated with the latest regulatory changes that impact their operations. This includes understanding the implications of regulatory changes, ensuring compliance, and engaging with regulators proactively.
Enhance Cybersecurity Measures: Given the increasing cybersecurity risks, financial services firms should implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect their systems, data, and customer information. This includes regular cybersecurity assessments, employee training, and incident response plans.
Diversify Risk Management Strategies: Financial services firms should adopt a diversified approach to risk management. This includes diversifying investments, customers, and markets to reduce concentration risk. It also involves using risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and derivatives to mitigate risks.
Conduct Comprehensive Due Diligence: Financial services firms should conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering into any business relationships, such as partnerships, acquisitions, or investments. This includes assessing the financial stability, reputation, and compliance of potential business partners to mitigate counterparty risk.
Implement Robust Compliance Programs: Compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should establish robust compliance programs that include policies, procedures, and controls to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and internal policies.
Invest in Technology and Data Analytics: Technology and data analytics can play a significant role in enhancing risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should invest in advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, to identify, assess, and monitor risks effectively.
Continuously Monitor and Update Risk Management Strategies: Risk management is an ongoing process, and firms should continuously monitor and update their risk management strategies to adapt to changing business and market conditions. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and making necessary adjustments as needed.
As the financial services industry continues to evolve, managing risk has become more critical than ever. Firms operating in this industry face various challenges, including increasing complexity, changing regulations, cybersecurity risks, geopolitical risks, reputation risk, operational risks, risk from emerging technologies, and risk from financial crime. However, by adopting best practices such as developing a robust risk management framework, embracing a risk culture, staying abreast of regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and safeguard their operations, reputation, and financial stability.
It is crucial for financial services firms to recognize that risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process that requires constant attention and adaptation. By proactively identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, firms can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential risk events and ensure their long-term sustainability.
In addition, fostering a strong risk culture within the organisation is essential for effective risk management. This involves creating an environment where risk awareness and accountability are valued, and employees at all levels are encouraged to report risks and concerns without fear of reprisal. A robust risk culture promotes open communication, transparency, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement.
Furthermore, leveraging technology and data analytics can greatly enhance risk management efforts in the financial services industry. Advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, can enable firms to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in vast amounts of data, allowing for more informed risk assessments and timely risk mitigation actions.
Lastly, financial services firms should stay updated with the latest regulatory changes and engage with regulators proactively. Regulatory requirements are constantly evolving, and firms need to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations to avoid penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage. Regular communication and collaboration with regulators can help firms understand the implications of regulatory changes and proactively address any potential compliance gaps.
In conclusion, managing risk is a critical aspect of operating in the financial services industry. With the increasing complexity and evolving landscape of this industry, firms need to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to risk management. By developing a robust risk management framework, fostering a strong risk culture, staying updated with regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and ensure their long-term success. It is imperative for financial services firms to prioritise risk management and make it an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. By doing so, they can safeguard their operations, protect their reputation, and maintain the trust of their customers and stakeholders in the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry.
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Create a business risk management plan after identifying key threats and opportunities for your business: PESTLE example
A business risk management plan for a business leader in the UK could include the following:
Political risks:
Monitor changes in government policies and regulations that may affect the business
Assess the potential impact of political instability on the company’s operations and supply chain
Develop contingency plans for disruptions caused by political events
Economic risks:
Monitor economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
Assess the potential impact of economic downturns on the company’s revenue and profitability
Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of economic fluctuations on the business
Social risks:
Monitor changes in consumer behavior and preferences
Assess the potential impact of social trends on the company’s products and services
Develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risks:
Monitor advances in technology that may disrupt the company’s business model
Assess the potential impact of technological innovations on the company’s competitiveness
Invest in research and development to stay ahead of technological changes
Legal risks:
Monitor changes in laws and regulations that may affect the business
Assess the potential impact of legal changes on the company’s operations and compliance costs
Develop strategies to mitigate legal risks, such as insurance or implementing compliance programs
Environmental risks:
Monitor changes in environmental regulations and standards
Assess the potential impact of environmental factors on the company’s operations and supply chain
Develop strategies to mitigate environmental risks, such as implementing sustainable practices or investing in renewable energy.
Note: PESTLE Analysis is a framework for assessing the external factors that may affect a business. It is a useful tool for identifying potential risks and opportunities for a business.
PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN
Risk Type
Key Considerations
Potential Impact
Mitigation Strategies
Political risks
Changes in government policies and regulations
Disruptions to operations and supply chain
Monitor political developments, develop contingency plans
Economic risks
Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
Reduced revenue and profitability
Monitor economic indicators, develop strategies to mitigate effects of economic fluctuations
Social risks
Changes in consumer behavior and preferences
Reduced demand for products and services
Monitor social trends, develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risks
Advances in technology that may disrupt business model
Loss of competitiveness
Monitor technological developments, invest in R&D to stay ahead of changes
Legal risks
Changes in laws and regulations
Increased compliance costs and legal liabilities
Monitor legal developments, implement compliance programs and insurance
Environmental risks
Changes in environmental regulations and standards
Negative impact on operations and supply chain
Monitor environmental developments, implement sustainable practices and invest in renewable energy.
The risk of enterprise failure increases with inadequate governance risk and compliance processes
There are many examples of the biggest firms in the world collapsing due to bad risk management practices. Good corporate governance risk and compliance systems build business resilience and can improve business performance.
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There are several techniques that can be useful for managing business rules in an organisation. Here are some recommendations:
Documenting business rules: One of the most important techniques for managing business rules is to document them in a clear and concise manner. This can include using a variety of formats such as decision tables, flowcharts, and natural language descriptions.
Centralising business rules: To avoid inconsistencies and duplication of effort, it is advisable to centralise the management of business rules. This can be done using a dedicated software tool or a repository that stores the rules and makes them accessible to relevant stakeholders.
Version control: It is crucial to keep track of changes to business rules over time, especially when multiple stakeholders are involved. Version control techniques such as branching and merging can help in managing changes to business rules.
Testing and validation: Business rules should be tested and validated thoroughly to ensure their accuracy and effectiveness. This can be done using a variety of techniques such as unit testing, integration testing, and user acceptance testing.
Auditing and monitoring: Regular auditing and monitoring of business rules can help to identify any potential issues or areas for improvement. This can be done using automated tools or through manual reviews.
Governance and ownership: Establishing clear governance and ownership of business rules is essential to ensure that they are being managed effectively. This can include assigning ownership to specific individuals or teams and establishing processes for reviewing and approving changes to business rules.
By following these techniques, organisations can effectively manage their business rules and ensure that they are aligned with their business objectives and regulatory requirements.
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Looking back at past mistakes to make future better
In order to move forward we must look back. If we want to create a better future for our businesses we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the past.
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Often we learn more from failure than success. Ultimate business performance can be higher after lessons learnt. Not reviewing risk management errors condemns you to repeating them.
Transform your business on back of past mistakes. Your past mistakes can be the foundation of your future success. However do not dwell on past mistakes. Learn lessons move on but do not keep picking wounds.
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Its not about how to reduce risk
External or internal driven risks threaten your business. They also create new business development opportunities. Reducing the effect of uncertainty on your business is important.
How do you manage enterprise risks? Do you put risk into different silos like safety, insurance, cyber risk, sales strategy etc? They can be rolled into one holistic risk based approach.
What is the most effective way for a business to manage risk? Look at what you are trying to achieve? Could you achieve more with your existing assets? Has good luck been saving you from disaster?
Understand the bigger picture first. When you know what risk you have then manage it.
There is danger being in business. Danger that you could blow your value. Danger you could under perform.
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Corporate Misbehaviour Is A Misnomer
Corporate or enterprise entities do not make mistakes or create a bad business culture executives do. Illegal unethical or bad business practices arise because that’s the way executives want a company to achieve corporate objectives. Executives may or may not consider their business practices as bad or unethical but the result is the same corporate misbehaviour.
Understanding corporate misbehaviour
It may be a pointless waste of money undertaking a business health check if the executives are going to be unreceptive to the final risk management report, or simple pay lip-service to the outcomes.
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Many CEOs know what game needs to be played with enterprise risk management ERM before they can return to their own agenda for the business. Internal or external risk management audits can just play into the CEO’s attitude to risk management. Such executives short-term philosophy seems to rely on the hope that the shit doesn’t hit the fan during their time as CEO and whatever happens after they move on is not a concern for some incumbent CEOs.
Much of executive misbehaviour, and therefore corporate misbehaviour, is a direct result of executive pay and associated benefits. Misdirecting executive pay and rewards drives most if not all catastrophic corporate collapses. Before the collapse poor executive pay and rewards strategies poison business innovation and employee motivation.
To anticipate which companies will survive sustainably you could look at how executives are rewarded. It is the single biggest driver of corporate culture and long-term success, or not as the case maybe.
Executive managers cause corporate scandals, corporate scandals are not externally driven. The proximate cause of the corporate scandal or collapse doesn’t start further down the organisation nor does it start from outside the company. CEO bad behaviour is normally the proximate cost or the catalyst for corporate collapse.
Corporate Scandals
Corporate scandals aren’t a surprise to most executives, never mind the CEO. They take the level of risk they think is required to achieve their business objectives. They roll the dice and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.
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For example, many in the banking and finance industry look upon the financial crisis as an external risk that impacted on their business strategy. No, or little, blame can be placed at the bankers door! It was all the other bankers and financers who were at fault for their share price collapse, mass redundancies and lost business opportunities – not their fault as their business was doing just fine until the financial crisis tsunami hit their business.
Such egotistical responses stem from either self preservation, or lack of care for their part in the near global systemic financial collapse of the banking and financial sector and the very near global anarchy which would have ensued. Politicians, who were part of the problem, became part of the solution – make money as cheap as possible via low interest rates and massive almost unremitting quantitative easing QE.
Mothers forget how bad childbirth was
More than a decade after the start of the financial crisis there is still mass unemployment in the developed world and the developing world lost a decade of opportunity to crawl out of poverty. However, the key decision-makers in the business world have either forgiven themselves or reinvented themselves in position of power. In addition, a new raft of politicians are in place, or about to find positions of power, to facilitate the next financial crisis.
At its least useful, enterprise risk management ERM is a tool to spread the blame should the shit hit the fan, so one would have thought that ERM could be more popular than it is. At its most useful it helps business leaders make business decisions that are more likely to be good ones for the long-term sustainability of the business for the benefit of all stakeholders in the business – including the CEO.
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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets
Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.
This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Why are bond yields rising?
There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.
Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.
What are the risks of rising bond yields?
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.
For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.
For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.
What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?
There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.
Investors
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.
Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.
Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.
Businesses
Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.
Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.
Conclusion
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.
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Read articles and view videos on the latest Brexit developments opinions and reviews. Network with top business leaders to manage Brexit threats and opportunities better.
19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control
Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.
Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.
However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.
However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.
The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.
Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.
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Brexit Guide Brexit Business Risk Assessment Analysis News and Opinions
Read our latest analysis on the consequences of Brexit. What is your Brexit risk assessment? How do you seize the opportunities a Brexit will present to your business? How do you mitigate the threats from Brexit? Only a careful, positive risk management approach will ensure that Brexit will work well for everybody in the UK.
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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government
With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.
The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.
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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.
It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.
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20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit
A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.
Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.
Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.
12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority
30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production
Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.
23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension
Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.
An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?
The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.
It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.
Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.
If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.
9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events
Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.
By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.
25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely
Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.
Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.
The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.
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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.
Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.
this Parliament is a disgrace
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019
Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.
All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.
Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.
20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October
Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.
There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.
The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.
The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.
17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less
There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products
market researcher Kantar
5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September
UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.
If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.
There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.
4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced
Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.
Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.
4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?
The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.
Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.
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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.
The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.
1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them
The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.
1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012
Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.
5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham
JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.
It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.
In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.
1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.
NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.
NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.
It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.
21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!
The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!
Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.
The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one. The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.
Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU. The time for compromise has come to an end.
The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.
The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.
15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos
Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.
The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.
The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.
29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein
MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.
The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.
22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes
The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.
Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.
Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.
Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.
Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.
21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops
Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.
21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU
Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.
He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.
19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again
Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.
If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.
The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.
14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week
Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.
The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.
Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.
Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!
13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit
Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.
Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.
The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal
European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.
Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.
It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.
Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.
Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.
UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.
If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.
15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016
The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.
UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.
27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal
Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry
German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.
The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.
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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.
14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster
According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.
A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.
A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.
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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit
David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.
29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows
Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that bankinginsurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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