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Financial services risk management approach that creates business and economic opportunities BusinessRiskTV Strategic Risk In Financial Services

Strategic risk decision making in financial services industry is not complicated but it is complex. Reduce the complexity to what matters to your business in the financial services sector.

  • Become more efficient and productive
  • Build greater business resilience
  • Improve business performance

Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.

In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.

Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder

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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.

Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.

Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.

Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.

The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. Italian Chinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in Europe Asia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.

Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.

A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.

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3rd July 2019 Number Of Cyber Incidents Reported By UKs Financial Sector Jumps

According to the Financial Conduct Authority FCA there has been jump in the number of cyber incidents reported by the UK’s financial sector.

Under the EUs General Data Protection Regulation GDPR financial sector businesses must report certain types of security breaches.

Many financial industry businesses are still trying to get the basics right on cyber risk management.

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Learn how to calculate risk tolerance and risk appetite with BusinessRiskTV

Managing your risk appetite and risk tolerance better. What level and nature of risk are you able and prepared to take to achieve your business objectives. Define the appetite for each type of risk to deliver your strategic objectives.

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Biggest threats facing the world in 2019 BusinessRiskTV Global Risks Report 2019

From extreme weather and climate change to systemic financial collapse. BusinessRiskTV reviews and reports of biggest threats to enterprise objectives around the world. Keep up to date throughout 2019 live and ondemand.

Be more proactive. Improve your response to the threats to your business.

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Many economic analysts are forecasting a further slowdown of the global economy in 2019. Make sure your business mitigates the threats and seizes new business development opportunities in 2019. Tackle the likelihood and impact of global and local risks better.

Be more alert to the risks from geopolitical and geoeconomic in the background to your business decision making to reduce uncertainty.

Tap into our risk management network of enterprise risk management experts to help you manage risk better. We work with risk experts and experience business leaders across the world to assess the risks and identify potential risk management plan.

You can work with our risk management experts to protect your business better and grow faster. Pick up tips advice and support for free online.

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Being in business can be tough. Strong businesses develop a positive risk management thinking strategy. Find the best in any business environment.

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Proactively develop your own risk awareness impacting on your business objectives. Embrace the changing business environment and internal risk factors. Get really good at manage enterprise risks to set clearer path to success.

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Strong businesses adopt a proactive risk management approach with clear risk management strategy for success. Develop a more stable business with better relationships with all business stakeholders. Be prepared to take on best business opportunities.

What do you want your business to achieve and what are you doing to make sure you are successful?

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What risks are you controlling? What enterprise risks should you not control? Manage the risks you can realistically influence the likelihood of and impact on business objectives should the risk materialise.

Strong businesses assess the risks then implement a well thought out risk management plan. Take some time to analyse different options and identifiable consequences on your business objectives but do not procrastinate. Take risk based business intelligent decisions quicker with more confidence.

Dream Bigger And Implement A New Reality For Your Business

Do not bury your head in the sand or fail to take calculated risks to improve your business performance. Be better prepared to aim higher with stronger business resilience to overcome obstacles. Focus your limited resources on more achievable business goals. Take risks with more confidence. We are not advocating recklessness. Be responsible and consciously embrace the unexpected.

Set your course to greater success with help from us and our collaborative business partners.

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Just because your industry or business sector or country is under the cosh does not mean your business needs to suffer too.

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Create a more proactive flexible reactive strategy to adjust your business to navigate all possibilities. Think and plan bigger!

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Have the courage to reach out to others who could help you whilst you help them.

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Become more confident in your future. Focus your resources on what really matters for your business success.

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Do not just live in our own business bubble. Find the people who complement your business or even fill holes in your business structure. Build healthy business relationships with help from BusinessRiskTV. Care for your new business partners and seek help in return to become more successful. Find time for others you can help to receive help.

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How to identify and analyse enterprise opportunities and threats

Improve your identification and analysis of business opportunities and threats. Subject your business processes to better risk identification and analysis to boost your business performance.

Use your business strengths to mitigate the threats your business faces. Eliminate to reduce your weaknesses to control the threats to your business objectives. Seize new business opportunities to build your business resilience.

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Recognise that you do have opportunities to improve your business and what you need to do to make them work well regardless of the business or economic environment.

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The global economy is recovering slowly. 2018 could see a leap in global business activity as key countries like China and America suck in more trade and export more. Some Eurozone countries are growing very fast in comparison to recent years and the Eurozone as a whole is growing once again.

Find out how risks in the biggest countries or trade areas in the world creates threats and opportunities for your business wherever you are in the world and wherever you want to export to.

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Managing Uncertainty Better

How do leaders manage uncertainty in business better

Managing uncertainty is a daily business dilemma. Business leaders have internal and external risk factors driving uncertainty in business. Often this uncertainty can lead to poorer business performance or even catastrophic business failure.

We are developing a business risk management hub to help inform your leadership team. Reduce the impact of uncertainty on your business success.

  1. Various risk management identification tools and techniques will bring emerging risks to your attention
  2. Our Partners analysis country and industry risks
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Our free enterprise risk management resources provide a free risk insight to the risks that matter to your business prosperity and even survival. Develop your risk knowledge for free.

Join in our online risk management discussions workshops and training sessions to hone your risk management skills and ability.

Leaders can manage uncertainty in various ways. Some bury their head in sand. Others adopt a belts and braces approach to risk control incurring imbalanced costs to benefits.

We can not guarantee you greater business success. We can help inform your business decision making process. You will be more likely to make better business decisions.

When facing doubts or uncertainty many business leaders turn to their gut instinct. Rolling the dice may turn up the result you are aiming for. This may work for you. However better risk management information may enable you to choose a different path. Or it may over procrastination to drive forward growth with more confidence. Not making a decision can be as bad as instinctively shooting off blindly.

Dealing with uncertainty better can help you navigate around pitfalls your competitors fall into. Help guide your business to greater success with less uncertainty. Manage uncertainty more cost effectively.

  • Leaders can use risk management principles and practices to take the next step towards success with more confidence.
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Free subscription to BusinessRiskTV can support your business improvement plans.

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BusinessRiskTV business risk management active members club enables members to contribute to BusinessRiskTV for free. Active members around the world contribute articles and videos to help grow their business faster with less uncertainty to help inform readers business risk management decision making.

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Founder of BusinessRiskTV Club

Read Keith Lewis Testimonials as to the quality of his work. This gives some background as to the quality of the business risk management business intelligence being gathered and distributed.

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Keith Lewis BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Management Club Founder

More than 30 years managing enterprise risks. For many years viewed holistic risk management as the key to business success. Decided to put his money where his mouth is by developing BusinessRiskTV.

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Executives Behaving Badly

Corporate Misbehaviour Is A Misnomer

Corporate or enterprise entities do not make mistakes or create a bad business culture, executives do.   Illegal, unethical or bad business practices arise because that’s the way executives want a company to achieve corporate objectives.   Executives may or may not consider their business practices as bad or unethical, but the result is the same – corporate misbehaviour.

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Understanding corporate misbehaviour

It may be a pointless waste of money undertaking a business health check if the executives are going to be unreceptive to the final risk management report, or simple pay lip-service to the outcomes.

Many CEOs know what game needs to be played with enterprise risk management ERM before they can return to their own agenda for the business.   Internal or external risk management audits can just play into the CEO’s attitude to risk management.   Such executives short-term philosophy seems to rely on the hope that the shit doesn’t hit the fan during their time as CEO and whatever happens after they move on is not a concern for some incumbent CEOs.

Much of executive misbehaviour, and therefore corporate misbehaviour, is a direct result of executive pay and associated benefits.   Misdirecting executive pay and rewards drives most if not all catastrophic corporate collapses.   Before the collapse poor executive pay and rewards strategies poison business innovation and employee motivation.

To anticipate which companies will survive sustainably you could look at how executives are rewarded.   It is the single biggest driver of corporate culture and long-term success, or not as the case maybe.

Executive managers cause corporate scandals, corporate scandals are not externally driven.   The proximate cause of the corporate scandal or collapse doesn’t start further down the organisation nor does it start from outside the company.   CEO bad behaviour is normally the proximate cost or the catalyst for corporate collapse.

Corporate Scandals

Corporate scandals aren’t a surprise to most executives, never mind the CEO.   They take the level of risk they think is required to achieve their business objectives.   They roll the dice and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.

For example, many in the banking and finance industry look upon the financial crisis as an external risk that impacted on their business strategy.   No, or little, blame can be placed at the bankers door!   It was all the other bankers and financers who were at fault for their share price collapse, mass redundancies and lost business opportunities – not their fault as their business was doing just fine until the financial crisis tsunami hit their business.

Such egotistical responses stem from either self preservation, or lack of care for their part in the near global systemic financial collapse of the banking and financial sector and the very near global anarchy which would have ensued.   Politicians, who were part of the problem, became part of the solution – make money as cheap as possible via low interest rates and massive almost unremitting quantitative easing QE.

Mothers forget how bad childbirth was

More than a decade after the start of the financial crisis there is still mass unemployment in the developed world and the developing world lost a decade of opportunity to crawl out of poverty.   However, the key decision-makers in the business world have either forgiven themselves or reinvented themselves in position of power.   In addition, a new raft of politicians are in place, or about to find positions of power, to facilitate the next financial crisis.

At its least useful, enterprise risk management ERM is a tool to spread the blame should the shit hit the fan, so one would have thought that ERM could be more popular than it is.   At its most useful it helps business leaders make business decisions that are more likely to be good ones for the long-term sustainability of the business for the benefit of all stakeholders in the business – including the CEO.

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Brexit Risk Watch

Read articles and view videos on the latest Brexit developments opinions and reviews. Network with top business leaders to manage Brexit threats and opportunities better.

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30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production

Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.

23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension

Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.

An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?

The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.

It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.

Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.

If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.

9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events

Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.

By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.

By applying enterprise risk management principles and practices your business can navigate whatever political and economic storms comes your way.

25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely

Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.

Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.

The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.

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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.

Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.

this Parliament is a disgrace

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019

Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.

All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.

20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October

Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.

There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.

The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.

The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.

17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less

There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products

market researcher Kantar

5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September

UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.

If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.

There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.

4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.

Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.

4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?

The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.

Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.

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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.

The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.

1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them

The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.

UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.

1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012

Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.

The global economy is suffering largely due to trade wars and worldwide geopolitical uncertainty.

5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham

JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.

It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.

In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.

1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.

NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.

NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.

It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.

21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!

The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!

Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.

The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one.   The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.

Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU.   The time for compromise has come to an end.

The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.

The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.

15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos

Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.

The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.

The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.

House prices are soaring because homeowners are ‘bored of Brexit’ and want to get on with their lives #houseprices https://t.co/4d7MTvzxDG

— Accommodation Man (@AccommodationSt) April 15, 2019

29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein

MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.

The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.

22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes

The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.

Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.

  1. Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
  2. The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
  3. UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.

Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.

Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.

21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops

Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.

21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU

Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.

He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.

19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.

If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.

The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.

14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week

Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.

The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.

Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.

Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!

13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit

Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.

Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.

The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal

European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.

Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.

  • It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
  • It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
  • What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.

Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.

Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.

UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.

If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.

All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.

15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016

The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.

It’s not Brexit Britain most likely to suffer recession. It’s Germany #GermanyRecession https://t.co/4Nkw7qP53h

— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) January 8, 2019

27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal

French construction group Vinci is buying a majority stake in Gatwick airport for 3 billion pounds. It is expecting Gatwick airport to be busier than it is now whether Britain leaves the European Union EU with a deal or without a deal.

Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.

Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?

26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

Britain eyes stronger economy in Brexit year https://t.co/jJTaN8igI5 #Budget2018 #Budget18

— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) October 30, 2018

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

UK automation picks up as flow of European workers slows ahead of Brexit https://t.co/dSMcUOm6ts #Brexit #ManufacturingUK #UKmanufacturers

— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) October 14, 2018

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

Theresa May’s new Chequers deal proposals would deliver immediate boost to economy, Mark Carney suggests https://t.co/OrOjaZo9L5 #ChecquersDeal #Checquers #Brexit #BrexitNews

— Online Manager (@RetirementMag) September 16, 2018

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

A year to go before Brexit, U.S. investment banks still bet on London #LondonJobs #BrexitSpeech #BrexitReality #BrexitBritain #brexitpolling #brexitimpact #BrexitNews https://t.co/suHBIgFI5Q

— Online Manager (@cheeringuptv) March 2, 2018

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

Post-Brexit, builder Barratt could shift some production back to UK #Brexit #brexitimpact #brexitpolling #brexitfacts https://t.co/qCEyTDYHY8

— cheeringup (@cheeringup) February 21, 2018

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.

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Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.

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