Tag: Global Economy Articles and Opinions

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China and America Facing Similar Risks With Common Result – Systematic Collapse TradFi System

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The Looming Dominoes: How US and China’s Property Crises Could Topple the Global Financial Tower in 2024

Across the world, two seemingly distant tremours are rumbling beneath the surface of the global financial system – the potential U.S. Real Estate Crisis 2024 and the deepening China Property Crisis. While continents apart, these crises are intricately linked by a web of debt, speculation, and interconnectedness, threatening to trigger a catastrophic domino effect that could topple the very foundations of global banking and shadow banking in 2024.

Cracks in the American Dream: US Real Estate on the Precipice

The once-booming US real estate market, fuelled by years of cheap money and rampant speculation, is teetering on the edge of a potential collapse. A confluence of factors is creating the perfect storm:

  • Loan Interest Increase: The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation through rising interest rates is making mortgages and commercial real estate loans significantly more expensive, chilling demand and straining borrowers.
  • US Commercial Real Estate Value Collapse: Overbuilt office spaces, declining retail foot traffic, and the rise of remote work are eroding the value of commercial properties, particularly in saturated markets. This bubble, inflated by speculation, is at risk of popping, leading to defaults and widespread losses.
  • Shadow Banking’s Hidden Time Bomb: Beyond traditional banks, a complex web of hedge funds, private equity firms, and non-bank lenders hold a significant portion of US housing and commercial real estate debt. These entities, operating with less regulation and higher leverage, are particularly vulnerable to losses in a downturn, potentially triggering panic in the financial system.

China’s Ghost Cities Haunt the Global Economy:

Meanwhile, the once-unstoppable juggernaut of China’s property market is grinding to a halt. Years of reckless lending and unchecked developer speculation have left the landscape dotted with “ghost cities” – empty apartment blocks and unfinished mega-projects, all burdened by mountains of debt. This crisis manifests in several ways:

  • Property Market Slowdown: With sales plummeting and developers struggling to stay afloat, the once-exponential growth of the Chinese property market has stalled. This slowdown dampens demand for construction materials and commodities, impacting global trade and manufacturing.
  • Debt Contagion: The vast web of debt woven into China’s property sector extends beyond its borders. International banks and asset managers heavily invested in Chinese real estate loans face potential for significant losses, impacting their solvency and lending capacity worldwide.
  • Global Recessionary Spiral: A full-blown collapse of China’s property market could trigger a domino effect across the global economy. Slowing growth in China, a major consumer of goods and services, would ripple through international trade and supply chains, potentially tipping the world into a recession.

The Perfect Storm: Convergence of Crises, Catastrophic Consequences

The potential convergence of these two crises in 2024 paints a chilling picture. A US real estate crash, amplified by shadow banking woes, could send shockwaves through the global financial system. This, in turn, could exacerbate China’s property crisis, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral. The consequences could be dire:

  • Global Banking Crisis: Widespread losses from defaulted loans and plunging asset values could cripple traditional banks and shadow lenders, leading to liquidity crunches, credit rationing, and potentially bank failures.
  • Economic Recession: Disruptions in the financial system and a synchronised slowdown in the US and Chinese economies could plunge the world into a recession, impacting jobs, trade, and investment worldwide.
  • Social Unrest: Rising unemployment, financial hardship, and eroded trust in the financial system could lead to social unrest and political instability in various countries.

A Crossroads of Crisis and Opportunity:

The looming storm casts a long shadow over the global economic landscape. However, it also presents an opportunity for transformation. By acknowledging the interconnectedness of these crises and acting with foresight and collaboration, we can navigate towards a future of greater resilience and sustainable growth. Here are some potential solutions:

  • Macroeconomic Coordination: Central banks and governments across the globe need to coordinate their responses to inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing growth. Tailored interest rate adjustments, targeted fiscal interventions, and proactive regulations can help mitigate the risks and foster stability.
  • Transparency and Risk Management: Financial institutions, both traditional and shadow banks, must be transparent about their exposure to US and Chinese real estate and actively manage their risk profiles. Increased capital buffers, robust stress testing, and greater regulatory oversight are crucial in preventing a domino effect of collapses.
  • Diversification and Innovation: Businesses and investors need to diversify their portfolios and explore alternative investment strategies. Building a more resilient economy less reliant on overleveraged asset markets and promoting innovation in sectors like renewable energy and technology can create new opportunities for growth.
  • Strengthening Global Safety Nets: Strengthening International Cooperation

Conclusion: Building a Global Shield Against the Looming Catastrophe

The potential for a cataclysmic collision between the US and Chinese property crises necessitates not just proactive measures, but a fundamental reimagining of the global financial system. We must act as one on a global stage, building a collective shield against the looming catastrophe.

Beyond Mitigation, Embracing Transformation:

While mitigating the immediate risks of the converging crises is essential, simply patching the cracks in the existing system is not enough. We must embrace transformative thinking to build a more resilient and inclusive financial landscape. This requires:

  • Rethinking Leverage and Shadow Banking: The overreliance on debt and the opaque underbelly of shadow banking have contributed significantly to the current turmoil. Implementing stricter regulations, promoting responsible lending practices, and encouraging transparency within the financial ecosystem are crucial steps towards sustainable growth.
  • Investing in Inclusive Prosperity: Addressing inequality and fostering inclusive economic development are not just moral imperatives, but vital pillars of resilience. Investments in education, healthcare, and social safety nets create a more robust population less susceptible to economic shocks.
  • Embracing Green Finance: Shifting investments towards renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, and climate-resilient technologies are not just environmentally beneficial, but also offer lucrative avenues for economic diversification and long-term stability.

A Call to Collective Action:

The responsibility to avert this crisis and build a brighter future lies not solely with governments and financial institutions, but with every individual. We can contribute by:

  • Staying informed: Engaging with responsible financial literacy resources and holding leaders accountable for their actions.
  • Demanding transparency: Urging financial institutions to disclose their exposure to risky assets and advocating for stricter regulations.
  • Making mindful choices: Prioritising financial prudence, diversification, and ethical investment practices in our own lives.

The Crossroads Awaits:

We stand at a crossroads, facing a potential financial calamity unlike any we have seen before. However, within this crisis lies an opportunity for genuine transformation, a chance to forge a more equitable, sustainable, and resilient future for generations to come. By acting with foresight, collaboration, and a shared sense of responsibility, we can not only weather the storm, but emerge stronger, building a global financial system that serves the needs of all, not just the privileged few. Let us harness the collective power of our interconnected world to rewrite the narrative, transforming this looming catastrophe into a catalyst for a better tomorrow.

This article offers  narrative on the potential global financial crisis and the path towards a more resilient future. Remember, the power to turn the tide lies within each of us. Let us choose foresight over fear, collaboration over division, and build a future where prosperity and well-being are the cornerstones of the global financial landscape.

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What are the failures of Globalisation?

What are the negative effects of Globalisation on economic growth?

Globalisation: The Failure and the Alternatives

Globalisation has been a major force in the world economy for the past few decades. It has led to increased trade and investment, and has helped to spread technology and ideas around the world. However, globalisation has also had some negative effects, and there are growing concerns about its future.

The Failures of Globalisation

One of the main failures of globalisation is that it has not led to a more equitable distribution of wealth. In fact, the gap between rich and poor has widened in many countries as a result of globalisation. This is because globalisation has benefited the wealthy countries and the wealthy individuals in those countries more than it has benefited the poor countries and the poor individuals in those countries.

Another failure of globalisation is that it has led to a loss of jobs in some countries. This is because companies have been able to move their operations to countries with lower wages, which has led to job losses in the high-wage countries.

Globalisation has also been blamed for environmental problems. This is because companies have been able to move their operations to countries with weaker environmental regulations, which has led to increased pollution and other environmental damage.

The Negative Effects of Globalisation on Economic Growth

Globalisation has also had some negative effects on economic growth. One of the main problems is that globalisation has led to increased competition, which has made it harder for businesses to succeed. This has led to some businesses going out of business, and has also led to lower wages for some workers.

Another problem with globalisation is that it has led to increased volatility in the global economy. This is because the global economy is now more interconnected than ever before, which means that shocks in one part of the world can quickly spread to other parts of the world. This has led to some financial crises, and has also made it harder for countries to manage their economies.

Three Negative Effects of Globalisation

There are three main negative effects of globalisation that are worth highlighting:

  • The loss of jobs. As businesses have become more globalised, they have been able to move their operations to countries with lower wages. This has led to job losses in high-wage countries, such as the United States and Europe.
  • The widening gap between rich and poor. Globalisation has benefited the wealthy countries and the wealthy individuals in those countries more than it has benefited the poor countries and the poor individuals in those countries. This has led to a widening gap between rich and poor, both within countries and between countries.
  • The environmental impact. Globalisation has led to an increase in pollution and other environmental problems. This is because companies have been able to move their operations to countries with weaker environmental regulations.

The Alternative to Globalisation

There is no single alternative to globalisation. However, there are a number of things that countries can do to mitigate the negative effects of globalisation and to promote more equitable growth. These include:

  • Protecting jobs. Governments can provide support to businesses that are threatened by globalisation, such as by providing subsidies or tax breaks. They can also invest in education and training to help workers who lose their jobs find new ones.
  • Reducing inequality. Governments can redistribute income through taxes and social programs. They can also invest in infrastructure and education to help create more opportunities for everyone.
  • Protecting the environment. Governments can strengthen environmental regulations and enforce them more strictly. They can also invest in renewable energy and other sustainable technologies.

Globalisation is a complex issue with both positive and negative effects. It is important to be aware of the negative effects of globalisation so that we can take steps to mitigate them. However, it is also important to remember that globalisation has also had many positive effects, such as increased trade and investment, and the spread of technology and ideas. The challenge is to find ways to maximise the positive effects of globalisation while minimising the negative effects.

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What is risk management?

Business risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks that could impact a business. It is an essential part of any business, as it can help to protect against financial losses, reputational damage, and other negative consequences.

There are a number of different risk management frameworks that can be used, but they all share some common elements. These elements typically include:

  • Risk identification: The first step in risk management is to identify the potential risks that a business faces. This can be done by conducting a risk assessment, which involves brainstorming all of the possible risks that could occur and then assessing the likelihood and impact of each risk.
  • Risk assessment: Once the risks have been identified, they need to be assessed. This involves estimating the likelihood that each risk will occur and the impact that it would have if it did occur.
  • Risk mitigation: Once the risks have been assessed, they need to be mitigated. This can be done by implementing a number of different strategies, such as:
    • Transferring the risk to another party, such as through insurance
    • Avoiding the risk altogether, by changing the business’s operations or products
    • Reducing the risk, by implementing controls or procedures
  • Risk monitoring: The final step in risk management is to monitor the risks on an ongoing basis. This involves reviewing the risk assessment and mitigation strategies on a regular basis to ensure that they are still effective.

Risk analysis is a process that businesses use to understand the risks that they face and to develop strategies to mitigate those risks. Risk analysis can be used to assess a wide range of risks, including financial risks, operational risks, and strategic risks.

There are a number of different methods that can be used for risk analysis, but some of the most common methods include:

  • SWOT analysis: SWOT analysis is a framework that businesses use to identify their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. SWOT analysis can be used to identify the risks that a business faces and to develop strategies to mitigate those risks.
  • Risk assessment: Risk assessment is a more detailed process that businesses use to estimate the likelihood and impact of different risks. Risk assessment can be used to identify the risks that have the biggest potential impact on a business and to develop strategies to mitigate those risks.
  • Scenario analysis: Scenario analysis is a process that businesses use to simulate different possible outcomes. Scenario analysis can be used to assess the risks that a business faces in different economic and market conditions.

 

Business risk news is a type of news that reports on the risks that businesses face. Business risk news can be found in a variety of sources, including newspapers, magazines, websites, and blogs.

Business risk news is important for businesses because it can help them to stay informed about the risks that they face. This information can then be used to develop strategies to mitigate those risks.

Here are some examples of recent business risk news stories:

  • The global economy is slowing down, which could lead to a recession.
  • The war in Ukraine is causing supply chain disruptions and rising prices.
  • Cyberattacks are on the rise, and they are becoming more sophisticated.
  • Climate change is posing a growing threat to businesses.

Business risk management is an essential part of any business. By identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, businesses can protect themselves from financial losses, reputational damage, and other negative consequences. Risk analysis is a valuable tool that businesses can use to understand the risks that they face and to develop strategies to mitigate those risks. Business risk news can help businesses to stay informed about the risks that they face.

 

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What should you be worried about as business leader in 2023?

The things business leaders should be worried about if you want to really be successful in business

Here are some things business leaders should have in mind when deciding where to deploy finite money time and energy:

  1. Market trends and competition: Keeping an eye on market trends and understanding the competitive landscape can help business leaders make informed decisions about the direction of their company.
  2. Customer needs and satisfaction: Understanding and meeting the needs of customers is critical for any business. This can involve gathering feedback, analysing customer data, and continuously improving products and services to meet changing customer needs.
  3. Financial performance and sustainability: Business leaders should be mindful of the financial health of their company and strive to achieve profitability and financial stability. This may involve setting financial goals, monitoring financial metrics, and making strategic financial decisions.
  4. Employee satisfaction and retention: Happy and engaged employees can drive business success, so it is important for business leaders to prioritise employee well-being and create a positive work culture. This can involve offering competitive benefits, promoting professional development, and fostering a positive engaging work environment.
  5. Legal and regulatory compliance: Businesses must operate within the bounds of the law and adhere to any relevant regulations. This can involve ensuring that business practices and processes are compliant with laws and regulations, and staying up to date on any changes to legal or regulatory requirements.
  6. Innovation and growth: Business leaders should be proactive in seeking out opportunities for growth and innovation. This can involve developing new products or services, entering new markets, and finding ways to differentiate the business from competitors.

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Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023

Exploring preparation for a global recession with a businessrisktv.com

What happens to commodity prices in a recession

The coming global recession will slash demand for oil copper and the like. Prices for most commodities will fall. If the world falls into depression commodity prices will fall off a cliff including oil.

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Some prices can rise temporarily as people seek a safe haven. People may flee to gold or a few commodities that they think will safe harbour their money during a recession. However a depression, which is more and more likely, causes most commodity prices to collapse.

June’s weaker demand for commodities signals that an economic global recession is coming closer.

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Global recession is necessary to stop runaway global inflation. The hard landing is the only option now available due to the lacklustre response to control inflation by Central banks and global national government.

Agricultural demand and energy demand is likely to keep rising during the autumn and winter and will sustain high commodity prices. This is likely to be aggravated by poor geopolitical decision-making by incompetent national leaders and global bodies like WHO, UN and WEF puppet masters and pied pippers particularly as it relates to food, water and energy. It is likely that another health crisis will emerge in the autumn winter and spring and this is likely to be managed in a restrictive way due to the propensity of these international bodies to take more and more health and economic risk management control. In addition, as demand falls due to rising inflation it can be combined with increased supply chain disruption imposed by recommended risk management action by international bodies that national governments adopt. Worse WHO wants overseeing overriding control of the next wave of the pandemic or next health pandemic.

Demand is likely to stay the same or slightly lower, but our leaders can change the supply up or down with their decisions. Reducing supply will push up prices.

Global stagflation is a certainty. When not if.

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Global commodity prices

Wheat and oil future prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures. Weaker commodity prices in June indicate we are transitioning to a global recession. Although commodity prices will fall, inflation will increase and stay high whilst growth turns to recession. For example there will be less demand for oil, oil prices will fall, but prices of goods and services will remain high.

Surviving global recession: how do you prepare for a recession

Businesses that can offer business discounts and consumer discounts are more likely to survive as more people become price conscious.

Businesses that supply essentials or luxury items at a discount offer more in the marketplace compared to those businesses who have let their own costs of being in business balloon and cannot offer deals and discounts.

  • Discount grocery and retail stores tend to have more footfall during a recession. Many supermarkets take advantage of their customers during the good times and suffer a loss of business and profitability when recessionary precious hit the consumers household budget.
  • People still die during recession! After the management of global risks over the last two years more people will die. businesses which cater for death are likely to perform strongly throughout a recession.
  • People turn to drink and drugs during a recession! Businesses providing alcohol and drugs will perform strongly during the coming recession.
  • You still have to pay your taxes! Accountants and tax advisors are likely to still perform well during the recession.
  • Everyone can afford a bit of lippy! Cosmetic businesses can perform well during a recession.

As for the rest of businesses, they must fully understand what’s important and what is not for their particular business model. Offering more value for money will become more important.

Wheat and oil prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures market
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How do we improve on yesterday so that today and tomorrow is better and more cost effective. What is it that we have that is good?

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Striving for perfection is not our goal. Do not let perfection be the enemy of the good enough. Focus on making realistic changes for the better happen. Dreaming of a better world tomorrow does not make the real world good enough today.

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Most people in 3rd world countries are not interested in woke words. They simply want to live better tomorrow than they did today. Most peoples 1st world problems could be alleviated with a holistic approach to good business management and lifestyle choices.

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Aspiration to live better wherever you live in the world can be fulfilled by solving all our problems together at once not by a piecemeal approach. Good words do not put food on the table or a roof over your head. Sodding your neighbour does not protect you from destroying everything you have built around you.

People can work together for common good

We do not need to be in the same country culture or place to work as a team to achieve what we want for ourselves. Getting what you want can help others to get what they want out of the investment of time.

Putting up trade barriers does not work for the builder of walls. Forcing people to be in your gang does not make progression towards goals fast enough. Seeing the mutual benefit at the end for all people on the bus does.

Our holistic approach to making decisions for the common good will be successful for all who lend support

If you put your shoulder to the wheel you can reap the rewards from the effort.

We are not looking for constant companions but do seek constant progress. Moving it forward a little everyday is better than big leaps now and again. We do not need to be beside you for every step but would like to be with you at the end of the journey. We can achieve more together than on our own.

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Businesses operate in a constantly changing world, where the risks faced can be unpredictable, complex, and varied. The potential impact of risks can range from reputational damage to financial loss, and in some cases, threaten the very existence of the business. To ensure sustainable growth and profitability, businesses need to have robust risk management strategies in place that are aligned with their overall objectives and risk appetite. This is where global risk management solutions come into play, providing businesses with the tools, insights, and expertise to manage risks effectively and proactively.

BusinessRiskTV.com is an online platform that provides a range of risk management solutions and services to businesses worldwide. With a network of risk management experts and thought leaders, BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources, including articles, videos, webinars, and tools, to help businesses understand, manage, and mitigate risks effectively. This article will explore some of the key global risk management solutions available on BusinessRiskTV.com and how they can help businesses navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape.

Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a holistic approach to risk management that involves identifying, assessing, and managing risks across the entire organisation. ERM aims to create a risk-aware culture within the organisation, where risks are considered in all decision-making processes and integrated into the overall strategic planning process. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on ERM, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective ERM strategy.

One of the key benefits of ERM is that it provides a comprehensive view of the risks faced by the organisation, allowing businesses to prioritise and allocate resources effectively. By identifying and assessing risks across all areas of the business, including operations, finance, and reputation, businesses can develop a more holistic understanding of their risk profile and take a more proactive approach to risk management.

Business Continuity Management

Business continuity management (BCM) is the process of identifying and managing risks that could disrupt normal business operations. BCM aims to ensure that businesses can continue to operate in the event of a disruption, whether caused by a natural disaster, cyber-attack, or other unexpected event. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on BCM, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective BCM strategy.

One of the key benefits of BCM is that it can help businesses minimise the impact of a disruption on their operations and reputation. By developing a comprehensive business continuity plan, businesses can identify the critical functions and processes that must be maintained in the event of a disruption, as well as the steps needed to recover and resume normal operations. This can help businesses minimise the financial and reputational impact of a disruption, and ensure that they can continue to meet the needs of their customers and stakeholders.

Cyber Risk Management

Cyber risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and managing risks related to information security and technology. With the increasing reliance on technology in business operations, cyber risks have become a major concern for businesses worldwide. Cyber risks can include data breaches, ransomware attacks, and other forms of cybercrime that can result in financial loss, reputational damage, and legal liabilities. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on cyber risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective cyber risk management strategy.

One of the key benefits of cyber risk management is that it can help businesses protect their sensitive information and systems from cyber threats. By identifying and assessing cyber risks, businesses can implement appropriate security measures, such as firewalls, antivirus software, and employee training programs, to mitigate the risks. This can help businesses reduce the likelihood and impact of a cyber-attack, and ensure that their operations and reputation are protected.

Compliance and Regulatory Risk Management

Compliance and regulatory risk management involves identifying and managing risks related to compliance with laws, regulations, and industry standards. Compliance risks can arise from a variety of sources, including changes in legislation, non-compliance with industry standards, and breaches of contractual obligations. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on compliance and regulatory risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective compliance and regulatory risk management strategy.

One of the key benefits of compliance and regulatory risk management is that it can help businesses avoid legal liabilities and reputational damage. By ensuring that they comply with relevant laws, regulations, and industry standards, businesses can demonstrate their commitment to ethical and responsible business practices. This can help businesses build trust with their customers and stakeholders, and enhance their reputation in the market.

Supply Chain Risk Management

Supply chain risk management involves identifying and managing risks related to the supply chain, including risks related to suppliers, logistics, and transportation. Supply chain risks can include disruptions caused by natural disasters, political instability, and changes in regulations. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on supply chain risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective supply chain risk management strategy.

One of the key benefits of supply chain risk management is that it can help businesses minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions on their operations and reputation. By identifying and assessing supply chain risks, businesses can implement appropriate risk mitigation strategies, such as diversifying their supplier base, implementing contingency plans, and enhancing supply chain visibility. This can help businesses reduce the likelihood and impact of supply chain disruptions, and ensure that they can continue to meet the needs of their customers and stakeholders.

In today’s complex and dynamic business environment, managing risks effectively is essential for sustainable growth and profitability. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of global risk management solutions that can help businesses identify, assess, and manage risks across all areas of their operations. From enterprise risk management to supply chain risk management, BusinessRiskTV.com provides businesses with the tools, insights, and expertise they need to navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape.

By leveraging the resources available on BusinessRiskTV.com, businesses can develop and implement effective risk management strategies that are aligned with their overall objectives and risk appetite. This can help businesses protect their operations and reputation, avoid legal liabilities, and enhance their competitiveness in the market. In short, global risk management solutions available on BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape and achieve sustainable growth and profitability.

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