Are we entering a bear market?

How long will a bear market last?

Navigating the Coming Storm: A Guide for Business Leaders in a Bear Market

The global economy is a complex and ever-changing landscape. As business leaders, we must be adept at navigating both periods of growth and periods of contraction. While the recent bull market has been kind to many, economic indicators are pointing towards a possible bear market on the horizon. This article, written by a team of leading economic experts, aims to equip you with the knowledge and strategies needed to not only weather the coming storm but potentially emerge stronger.

The Looming Bear: 9 Reasons Why a Market Downturn is Likely

  1. Rising Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have created out of control inflation, and in their fight against inflation, raised interest rates throughout repeatedly. This makes borrowing more expensive, potentially leading to decreased investment and economic activity.

  2. Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with other geopolitical hotspots like Israel and Gaza, are creating uncertainty and disrupting global supply chains. This has lead to higher energy prices and shortages of critical materials, further hindering economic growth.

  3. Inflationary Pressures: While inflationary pressures are expected to cool somewhat, persistently high inflation continues to erode consumer purchasing power and strain corporate profit margins.

  4. Overvalued Stock Market: Stock prices in many sectors have reached historically high valuations – an everything asset bubble. This suggests a potential correction is overdue, leading to a decline in overall market value, certainly recession perhaps depression.

  5. Corporate Debt Bubble: Corporate debt levels have risen significantly in recent years. A bear market could trigger defaults, leading to financial instability and further market decline.

  6. Housing Market Correction: The red-hot housing market might be cooling down, potentially leading to a decline in property values and a reduction in household wealth. This could further dampen consumer spending.

  7. Waning Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence indicators have started to show signs of decline. As consumers become more cautious about spending, business activity can slow down.

  8. Global Economic Slowdown: A synchronised slowdown in major economies around the world could create a domino effect, further weakening global demand and impacting exports.

  9. Technological Disruption: While technological advancements offer long-term benefits, they can also lead to short-term disruption in specific industries. Companies slow to adapt to these changes might struggle during a bear market.

The Bear’s Bite: Threats and Challenges

A bear market can be a challenging time for businesses. Here’s what you need to be prepared for:

  • Reduced Demand: A decline in consumer and business spending can lead to lower sales and revenue.
  • Increased Competition: Businesses will be vying for a smaller pool of customer dollars, intensifying competition in all sectors.
  • Profit Margin Squeeze: Rising costs and lower sales can squeeze profit margins, making it difficult to maintain profitability.
  • Financing Difficulties: Tightening credit conditions can make it harder to secure loans and access capital for growth or even day-to- day operations.
  • Employee Morale: Market downturns can lead to layoffs and furloughs, impacting employee morale and productivity.

The Silver Lining: Opportunities in a Bear Market

While a bear market presents significant challenges, it also offers potential opportunities for savvy business leaders:

  • Market Consolidation: Weaker competitors may be forced out of business, creating opportunities for stronger companies to acquire market share.
  • Reduced Operational Costs: During a downturn, businesses can focus on streamlining operations and reducing costs to improve efficiency and profitability.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: Lower valuations might create opportunities for strategic acquisitions of talent, technology, or market access.
  • Innovation and Differentiation: Challenging times can be catalysts for innovation. Businesses can focus on developing new products or services that cater to evolving customer needs.
  • Talent Acquisition: During downturns, talented individuals laid off by other companies might become available for hire, strengthening your workforce.
  • Customer Loyalty: Businesses that prioritise customer service and value during difficult times can build stronger customer loyalty, leading to long-term benefits.

Weathering the Storm: 6 Recommendations for Business Leaders

  1. Strengthen your Financial Position: Focus on building a strong cash reserve to weather potential disruptions. Renegotiate debt obligations and tighten expense controls to improve your financial health.

  2. Re-evaluate your Business Model: Analyse your current business model’s strengths and weaknesses. Consider pivoting to more recession-proof products or services if necessary.

  3. Enhance your Value Proposition: Communicate your value proposition clearly and effectively to your customers. Focus on how your products or services can help them save money or solve problems during challenging times.

  4. Invest in Operational Efficiency: Identify and eliminate inefficiencies in your operations to reduce costs and improve productivity.

  5. Embrace Innovation: Encourage innovation and explore new market opportunities. Invest in research and development to stay ahead of the curve.

  6. Prioritise Your People: A bear market can be stressful for employees. Communicate openly and honestly with your team. Provide support and invest in their skills to enhance their employability. A loyal and motivated workforce is critical for weathering any storm.

    Conclusion: Navigating a Bear Market with Confidence

    The possibility of a bear market shouldn’t paralyse you. By acknowledging the potential challenges and implementing proactive strategies, you can position your business for success even in a downturn. Remember, past recessions have always been followed by periods of growth. The key is to be prepared, adaptable, and seize the opportunities that a bear market might present.

    Here are some additional resources to help you navigate a bear market:

    By staying informed, taking strategic action, and prioritising your people, you can ensure your business emerges stronger and more resilient from the coming bear market. Remember, the most challenging times often yield the most significant opportunities for growth and transformation.

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What is the potential of tokenisation?

Asset management industry trends And digital asset revolution

The Tokenisation Tide: How Business Leaders Can Navigate the Next Wave of Financial Revolution

Larry Fink, the ever-prescient CEO of BlackRock, recently declared tokenisation “the biggest trend in finance.” This isn’t just another passing fad; it’s a tidal wave poised to reshape the financial landscape as we know it. Beyond Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the underlying blockchain technology holds transformative power, waiting to be harnessed by savvy business leaders.

Imagine a world where every financial asset – stocks, bonds, real estate/property, even intellectual property – exists as a token on a secure, public ledger. This, as Fink envisions, is the future: “a massive leap forward in terms of efficiency, transparency, and access to capital.”

Beyond Bitcoin: Unlocking the Blockchain Potential

Bitcoin may have grabbed headlines, but the true revolution lies in the distributed ledger technology underpinning it. Blockchain cuts out the need for centralised custodians, enabling secure and transparent recording of ownership and transactions. This opens doors to a plethora of benefits:

  • Increased Liquidity: Fractional ownership becomes possible, unlocking previously illiquid assets like art or real estate to a wider pool of investors.
  • Enhanced Transparency: All transactions are immutably recorded, fostering trust and reducing fraud.
  • Streamlined Processes: Smart contracts automate paperwork and human error, expediting transactions and lowering costs.

We will have the ability to securely transact and store value without gatekeepers or intermediaries and this is a paradigm shift in asset management. Businesses built for self-sovereign individuals and this decentralised world will be the ones to thrive.

Embracing Web3: Democratising Finance through Decentralisation

The tokenisation wave coincides with the rise of web3, a decentralised internet built on blockchain principles. This shift empowers individuals, displacing the gatekeepers of the traditional web who controlled data and transactions. In web3, users own their data and assets, participating in a more equitable and transparent digital ecosystem.

This presents exciting opportunities for businesses. Imagine tokenised loyalty programmes where customers directly own their rewards, or fractionalised ownership of cutting-edge technology, democratising access for all. In a world of increasing uncertainty, tokenisation becomes a powerful tool for individuals and businesses to navigate volatile landscapes.

Safe Harbour in a Stormy Sea: Tokenisation as a Geopolitical Hedge

As geopolitical tensions rise and economic instability spreads, the need for safe haven assets intensifies. Tokenised assets offer a compelling alternative to traditional havens like gold or real estate/property. Their global accessibility, divisibility, and transparent ownership record make them attractive to investors seeking to protect their wealth from political or economic turmoil.

“Tokenisation provides a secure avenue to store and transfer value across borders, especially when traditional institutions might falter,” explains Fink. “This empowers individuals and businesses to navigate uncertain times with greater resilience.”

Charting the Course: Riding the Tokenisation Wave

Business leaders who proactively explore the tokenisation space stand to gain a significant competitive edge. Here are some actionable steps:

Fink’s powerful statement serves as a clarion call: “The biggest trend in finance is the tokenization of everything.” The tides are changing, and those who seize the opportunity to ride the wave will be well-positioned to thrive in the next generation of financial markets. By embracing blockchain technology, web3 principles, and the potential of tokenised assets, they can not only build resilient businesses but also contribute to a more equitable and decentralised financial future.

Remember, the journey beyond Bitcoin only just begins. This article has provided a roadmap for navigating the tokenisation wave. Some additional articles and workshops:

  • Deeper dive into alternative blockchain platforms: Explore Ethereum, Hyperledger Fabric, and Corda, highlighting their tailored features for specific industries.
  • Analysis of the legal and regulatory considerations: Discussing security regulations, taxation frameworks, and the need for international collaboration.
  • Vivid portrayal of next-generation financial markets: Emphasis on increased efficiency, automation, and democratisation of access to capital.
  • Analysis of different types of tokenised assets as safe havens: Explore real estate-backed tokens, gold-pegged stablecoins, and tokenised art and collectibles.
  • Dedicated section on web3 philosophy and its impact on business models: Discuss DAOs, tokenised communities, and implications for customer engagement.

Diving Deeper: Key Concepts for Navigating the Tokenisation Space

Beyond Bitcoin: A Spectrum of Blockchain Platforms

While Bitcoin serves as the gateway drug for many, it’s just the tip of the iceberg. Alternative blockchain platforms, each with its strengths and applications, await exploration. Consider Ethereum, the undisputed DeFi (decentralised finance) champion, offering faster transaction speeds and programmable smart contracts. Hyperledger Fabric, designed for enterprise use, boasts enhanced privacy and security, making it ideal for sensitive financial transactions. Corda, focused on inter-organisational collaboration, streamlines business processes through distributed ledger technology.

Charting the Legal Labyrinth: Regulatory Considerations

Tokenisation’s legal and regulatory landscape remains uncharted territory, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Security regulations aim to prevent fraud and market manipulation, while taxation frameworks grapple with the novel nature of tokenised assets. International collaboration is crucial to develop a coherent regulatory framework, fostering innovation while safeguarding investors.

Painting the Future: Next-Gen Financial Markets

Imagine a world where financial markets operate at warp speed, driven by automation and blockchain efficiency. Fractional ownership grants access to previously closed-door avenues, empowering individuals to invest in everything from infrastructure projects to renewable energy initiatives. Imagine tokenised sovereign debt traded on global exchanges, blurring the lines between traditional finance and the democratised world of blockchain.

Safe Havens in a Turbulent World: Diversifying with Tokenised Assets

As geopolitical tensions simmer and economic storms brew, the need for safe havens intensifies. Tokenised assets offer a compelling alternative to traditional havens like gold. Real estate-backed tokens provide stable value tied to tangible assets, while gold-pegged stablecoins offer a digital haven anchored in precious metal. Diversifying with tokenised art and collectibles adds another layer of resilience to your portfolio, protecting its value through inherent scarcity and cultural significance.

Web3: Reshaping Business Models and Customer Engagement

Web3 isn’t just a technology, it’s a movement. Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) challenge traditional corporate structures, fostering collaborative ownership and decision-making. Tokenised communities create direct relationships with your customers, transforming them from passive consumers into invested stakeholders. Imagine loyalty programmes where customers directly own their rewards, or fractional ownership of your brand, building unparalleled engagement and loyalty.

  • “This is the age of programmable money, and tokenisation is the key that unlocks its potential. Businesses that embrace this revolution will see their customers empowered and their reach extended beyond borders.” – Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum.
  • “The future of finance is built on collaboration, not gatekeepers. By embracing web3 principles and tokenisation, businesses can unlock new value streams and build vibrant communities around their brands.” – Meltem Demirors, CIO of Coinshares.

Conclusion: Riding the Wave of Change

Larry Fink’s declaration wasn’t a mere prediction; it was a prophetic call to action. The tokenisation tide is rising, and business leaders who stand atop their surfboards, ready to navigate the currents, will be the ones to thrive. By educating themselves, identifying opportunities, and embracing the decentralised ethos of web3, they can build resilient businesses that empower individuals, unlock unprecedented levels of value, and contribute to a more equitable and inclusive financial future. The time to dive in is now. Are you ready to ride the wave?

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Effects of de-dollarisation

Benefits of de dollarisation and disadvantages of de dollarisation

America’s Towering Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb for Inflation, Interest Rates, and Dollar Dominance

The United States sits atop a colossal mountain of debt – a staggering $34 trillion and counting. This ever-expanding pyramid of IOUs casts a long shadow on the nation’s economic future, potentially triggering a perfect storm of inflation, rising interest rates, and ultimately, the erosion of the dollar’s global dominance. Let’s delve into the potential consequences of this looming crisis and explore how it might reshape the financial landscape for the U.S. and the world at large.

The US’s growing pile of debt is a “boiling frog” for the US economy, JP Morgan (ie Business leaders and consumers won’t wake up to how bad the debt pile is for them until it is too late!)

Inflationary Inferno: Unbridled government spending, fuelled by debt accumulation, injects massive amounts of money into the economy. This excess liquidity, chasing a relatively fixed supply of goods and services, ignites the flames of inflation. As the cost of living spirals upwards, eroding purchasing power and triggering social unrest, the Federal Reserve’s response becomes crucial.

Interest Rate Rollercoaster: As inflation rears its ugly head, the Fed attempts to tame it by raising interest rates. Higher borrowing costs aim to cool down economic activity, reducing demand and, hopefully, dampening price pressures. However, this strategy comes at a steep price. Borrowing for businesses and individuals becomes more expensive, impacting investment, growth, and overall economic dynamism.

The Dollar’s Demise: Rising interest rates can be a double-edged sword. While they may curb inflation, they also make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors. This increased demand temporarily props up the greenback, but can be short-lived. The underlying reason for debt-fueled inflation remains unaddressed, casting a shadow over the dollar’s long-term stability.

De-Dollarisation Dominoes: If America’s debt crisis goes unchecked, the confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency could erode. Countries and investors may look to diversify their reserves into other currencies, such as the Euro, Yuan, or even a basket of currencies. This de-dollarisation would weaken the dollar’s international prestige, making it more expensive for the U.S. to finance its debt and trade on the global stage.

Effects of De-Dollarisation: For the U.S., de-dollarisation carries several potential consequences:

  • Higher borrowing costs: With reduced demand for dollars, the U.S.government would have to pay higher interest rates on its bonds, further fuelling the debt spiral.
  • Trade imbalance: A weaker dollar could make U.S. exports cheaper, boosting competitiveness, but imports would become more expensive, raising consumer prices and exacerbating inflation.
  • Financial instability: De-dollarisation could trigger volatility in global financial markets, impacting U.S.investments and potentially leading to financial crises.

De-Dollarisation: Countries Taking Action: While the U.S. grapples with its debt predicament, some countries are actively preparing for a potential shift away from dollar dominance. China, Russia, India, and several other nations are increasing their gold reserves and promoting alternative payment systems, laying the groundwork for a multipolar financial landscape.

Benefits of De-Dollarisation: While the transition away from dollar dominance could be bumpy, it also presents potential benefits:

  • Reduced U.S. influence: De-dollarisation could curtail the U.S.’s ability to exert economic pressure on other countries through sanctions or manipulation of exchange rates.
  • More balanced global system: A multipolar financial system could distribute power more evenly among nations, fostering greater cooperation and reducing vulnerability to systemic shocks.
  • Rise of alternative currencies: De-dollarisation could pave the way for the emergence of stronger regional currencies, promoting economic integration and development within specific regions.

Disadvantages of De-Dollarisation: However, the road to de-dollarisation is not without its challenges:

  • Uncertainty and volatility: The transition away from the established dollar system could create significant uncertainty and volatility in global financial markets.
  • Loss of seigniorage: The U.S. derives significant economic benefits from the dollar’s reserve currency status, including seigniorage – the profit earned from printing its own currency. De-dollarisation could result in the loss of this advantage.
  • Power vacuum: In the absence of a single dominant currency, there is a risk of power vacuums and potentially more complex power dynamics in the global financial system.

The Road Ahead: America’s debt crisis poses a monumental challenge, with far-reaching consequences for its domestic economy and global financial leadership. Addressing this issue requires a multi-pronged approach, including fiscal responsibility, economic diversification, and exploring alternative monetary frameworks. While the potential end of dollar dominance may initially bring uncertainty, it could also pave the way for a more equitable and resilient global financial system.

Cryptocurrencies as a Safe Harbour in America’s Debt-Fuelled Storm: A Beacon or a Mirage?

The spectre of America’s ever-growing debt mountain and potential de-dollarisation has ignited speculation about alternative havens for wealth and value. Among these, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have emerged as potential contenders, sparking heated debate about their efficacy as “safe harbours” in a turbulent financial landscape.

Proponents of cryptocurrencies as safe harbours cite several compelling arguments:

  • Decentralisation: Unlike traditional currencies controlled by central banks, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin operate on decentralised networks, theoretically immune to manipulation or government intervention. This perceived independence could offer shelter from the inflationary pressures associated with excessive government debt.
  • Scarcity: Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, a feature designed to prevent inflation and preserve its value over time. In contrast, fiat currencies backed by governments can be endlessly printed, potentially diluting their worth.
  • Security: Blockchain technology, the underlying infrastructure of cryptocurrencies, provides a robust and transparent record of transactions,reducing the risk of fraud and counterfeiting.

However, skeptics raise concerns about the suitability of cryptocurrencies as true safe harbours:

  • Volatility: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, with wild price swings often surpassing those of traditional markets. This volatility could wipe out wealth rather than protecting it, especially for less risk-tolerant investors.
  • Regulation: The nascent cryptocurrency landscape remains largely unregulated, creating uncertainty and potential vulnerability to government crackdowns. Regulatory clarity is crucial for widespread adoption and institutional investment.
  • Technical hurdles: Using and storing cryptocurrencies can be complex for the uninitiated, requiring specialised knowledge and technology. This barrier to entry could limit their appeal as mainstream safe havens.

So, are cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin truly safe harbours in the face of America’s debt crisis and potential de-dollarisation? The answer is nuanced and depends on individual risk tolerance and investment goals.

  • For risk-tolerant investors seeking diversification and potential long-term value preservation, cryptocurrencies may offer an alternative. However, it’s crucial to understand the associated volatility and the ever-evolving regulatory landscape.
  • For those seeking stability and immediate liquidity, traditional assets like gold or diversified investment portfolios may remain more suitable.

Ultimately, whether cryptocurrencies fulfill their promise as safe harbours remains to be seen. They represent an intriguing experiment in decentralised finance, but their long-term viability as havens for wealth hinges on factors beyond America’s debt woes, including technological advancements, regulatory clarity, and broader public adoption.

In conclusion, while cryptocurrencies offer intriguing possibilities as alternative stores of value, their suitability as safe harbors in the face of America’s debt crisis and potential de-dollarization requires careful consideration of the risks and uncertainties involved. Diversification and a thorough understanding of both traditional and digital assets remain crucial for navigating the turbulent financial landscape ahead.

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Will you drown or be saved with cryptos?

Some bank shares are still more than 90% off their peak pre 2008 financial crisis so there is no such thing as “safe as money in the bank”!

The Inflationary Storm: Are Cryptos Your Lifeboat?

A dark cloud hangs over the global economy. Whispers of recession turn into shouts, and governments, desperate to keep the ship afloat, resort to the familiar mantra: fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing. But what does this mean for your hard-earned money? Enter cryptocurrencies: a digital life raft in a sea of potential devaluation.

As a currency and economics expert, I’m here to navigate these choppy waters. Today, we’ll explore the potential for crypto as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. We’ll dive into the economic storm, examine the limitations of traditional safeguards, and assess whether venturing into the crypto realm could be your best bet.

The Looming Devaluation:

Governments and central banks worldwide have injected trillions into their economies since the pandemic. This, coupled with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, is fuelling an inflationary fire. Fiat currencies, backed by nothing but government promises, are losing their purchasing power. A loaf of bread that cost $2 yesterday may cost $2.10 tomorrow, silently eroding your savings and future.

Traditional Safe Havens Fail:

Historically, gold and other precious metals have been go-to hedges against inflation. But their limited supply and physical constraints don’t cater to everyone’s needs. Real estate or property, another traditional option, suffers from high entry barriers and illiquidity.

This is where cryptocurrencies enter the picture. With their decentralised nature, limited supply, and global reach, they present a new, albeit volatile, option.

The Crypto Advantage:

  • Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies,many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin,have a predetermined cap on their supply. This scarcity helps limit inflation and potentially increases their value over time.
  • Decentralisation: Cryptocurrencies aren’t subject to the whims of governments or central banks. Their decentralised networks offer a buffer against devaluation policies used to stimulate economies.
  • Global Accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can access and trade cryptocurrencies, regardless of location or financial standing. This democratises wealth management and opens doors to previously excluded individuals.
  • Store of Value: While their volatility often grabs headlines, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have exhibited long-term value appreciation. Their potential to act as a digital gold, a secure store of value in a turbulent economy, is undeniable.

The Risk Factor:

However, venturing into the world of cryptocurrencies isn’t without its risks:

  • Volatility: The crypto market is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing wildly, making them potentially unsuitable for risk-averse individuals.
  • Regulation: The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is still evolving, creating uncertainty and potential for government intervention.
  • Security: Crypto wallets and exchanges have been targets for hackers, highlighting the importance of choosing secure platforms and practicing safe storage methods.

Navigating the Crypto Waters:

So, should you dive into the crypto ocean as a hedge against devaluation? The answer depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a safe haven, traditional options like gold might be better suited. However, if you have the risk appetite and are willing to do your research, cryptocurrencies could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.

Remember, diversification is key. Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket. Start with a small allocation, understand the risks involved, and invest only what you can afford to lose.

For Business Leaders:

  • Explore crypto’s potential as a payment option: Accepting cryptocurrencies can attract tech-savvy customers and expand your reach.
  • Consider crypto investments: Carefully assess the risks and potential rewards of incorporating crypto into your portfolio.
  • Educate your employees: Equip your team with the knowledge they need to understand and potentially utilise cryptocurrencies.

For Consumers:

  • Do your research: Understand the different types of cryptocurrencies and their underlying technologies before investing.
  • Diversify your portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.
  • Start small: Invest only what you can afford to lose, and remember the market is volatile.
  • Choose secure platforms: Store your cryptocurrencies in reputable wallets and exchanges.

Cryptocurrencies present a fascinating blend of opportunity and risk in the face of potential fiat currency devaluation. While not a guaranteed solution, they offer a novel approach to securing your financial future. Remember, knowledge is power in this realm. Educate yourself, assess your risk tolerance, and make informed decisions to weather the coming economic storm. The crypto lifeboat might just be the key to staying afloat in the inflationary seas ahead.

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The #1 Thing People Get Wrong About Lloyds Bank

Do not tar Lloyds bank with the same toxic brush of the UK banking industry

People think Lloyds bank is a big bad bank that was part of the financial crisis of 2008. Lloyds bank was in fact one of the hero’s of the financial crisis. Lloyds bank saved the Halifax brand including the Bank Of Scotland whose executives were the real baddies along with the Royal Bank of Scotland now Natwest. By saving the Halifax plc group of bank brands it helped stop the implosion of the UK economy.

If Lloyds bank had not stepped in when it did, Halifax plc group of bank brands would have collapsed and a major domino would have irreparably damaged the UK economy. If we thought it was bad economically with austerity and job losses in UK, without Lloyd’s intervention to takeover Halifax plc it would have been catastrophic. Anarchy on the streets would have resulted and the UK would have entered a period of lifespan that would have been worse than World War 2. We came back economically after Word War 2. If Lloyd’s bank had not stepped in the UK would be more like Venezuela now.

From the financial crisis Lloyds Bank has tried hard to make matters worse including but not limited to PPI scandal where more than £20 billion pounds worth of shareholder value was destroyed. Incompetent greedy executives poorly directed employees to make repeated missteps post financial crisis 2008 to make matters worse. Added to this Lloyds bank has had to manage the risks from external sources including Brexit and Covid-19 pandemic.

However Lloyds bank is now very far from the perceived bad bank it had become. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis Lloyds bank was a boring bank. Investors loved the fact it was a traditional boring bank. It’s share price was £6 plus and it paid out relatively gigantic dividends every year to support pension funds, pensioners and other investors. Lloyds bank had no choice but to take over basket case Halifax plc. If Lloyds bank did not takeover Halifax plc basket of bank brands it is likely that Lloyd’s bank would have collapsed due to the domino effect. As Halifax plc and Royal Bank of Scotland folded they would have swamped the position of Lloyds bank as the UK economy went into a nosedive it is unlikely to have recovered from for many decades, if ever.

The only positive for Lloyds bank’s takeover of Halifax plc bank brands is that in all other circumstances Lloyds bank would never have been allowed to takeover Halifax plc by the UK competition authorities. Lloyds would have become too powerful in the marketplace. As it is, the only real risk to Lloyds bank is that it could be broken up as it is too dominant in for example the mortgage market.

  • Lloyds is the biggest player in the UK mortgage market. In a marketplace where the UK housing market is booming a share price of less than £0.45 is a joke!
  • Lloyds bank has come through the PPI scandal. Having destroyed shareholder value in the past, the laws have been changed to largely cap any future payouts under the PPI heading.
  • Brexit has now happened. Whether this is good or bad for the UK economy depends on which half of the UK adult population stand on Brexit. What is perhaps clear is that if it is going to impact negatively on the UK business community it is not going to be catastrophic. It may even been hugely beneficial to UK businesses. Lloyds bank will not be significantly impacted negatively by Brexit and may be impacted on the positive side.
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is far from over. However the UK vaccination programme and its likely adaptation to combat virus variations means the UK economy is now through the worst. The only question is how good will the future be? Lloyds bank can easily navigate the future risks if, as it has done, navigated the worst of the pandemic in the UK.
  • Another enterprise risk management article looks at the UK economy as a whole in the spring of 2021. Essentially most things point to exceptional UK economic growth through 2021 and 2022. Lloyds bank is perhaps uniquely placed to take advantage of any such economic growth. Its strategy is based on making money from UK consumer and UK business confidence and growth, both of which are at record all time highs.
  • If interest rates rise it will give all banks more opportunities to be profitable. With UK interest rate at record low of 0.1 percent banks will win from interest rate rises. Interest rates are not going to go negative.
  • Unemployment in UK is a key threat to UK banks. However many predict the UK unemployment is not going to be any way near as bad as was feared due to pandemic. Indeed if the vaccination roll out continues as hoped, unemployment rates are likely to be slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Certainly not at levels that would threaten Lloyds bank profit.
  • Lloyds bank has comparatively high profit margin compared to many UK banks so is more protected from downside risks.
  • UK consumers have paid off debt and saved more during the pandemic. When their spending power is fully unleashed on the UK economy post June 2021 the UK is going to see an economic growth not experienced since post World War 2 period. Lloyds bank is ideally placed via mortgage and non-mortgage lending to take advantage of this revitalisation of UK economy.

Lloyds bank was never the bad bank. It had to takeover the greedy and incompetent at Halifax plc. During that process it has had to manage internal and external risk drivers. It is likely that Lloyds bank’s worst days are behind it. Lloyds bank would have to work really hard to screw up its current opportunities for exponential growth.

The #1 Thing People Get Wrong About Lloyds Bank

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Understand how your business operates and how you can run it better. Develop risk management insight. Developing better business intelligence will help you more holistically bring all parts of your business together. Make better use of your existing business resources. Become more productive.

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Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.

What of the future? Economic growth not contraction. The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. Can your business exploit the opportunities for growth that are ahead?

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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?

The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.

Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:

  • Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
  • Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
  • Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.

It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.

In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.

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Sure there is uncertainty about the UKs economic future. When has there been certainty? The key is to find ways to grow whatever the economic future or at least protect your business so it is resilient and survives.

There are undeniable challenges ahead for UK business leaders. Identify them assess their impact on your business and set a risk management plan and strategy for business resilience.

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Are you interested in business risk management and interested in authoring an article or posting a video on BusinessRiskTV.com

We are looking for people who have something to say about country or industry risks. In addition if you want to author an article on specific risk that applies to all countries and industries we may publish it too.

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Brand awareness marketing and business strategy development with BusinessRiskTV. Awareness campaign ideas.

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Increase online sales. Get your brand known locally and globally. Raise your brand awareness ideas to grow your business faster. Awareness campaign ideas.

Without effective brand awareness your business could lose out on sales your competitors have won. Consumers and businesses only have a limited amount of money to spend and if they spend their scarce resource because they found your competitor and not you then you lose. Learn here how to make your business stand out online and become more successful.

Several of the biggest retailers in the UK have collapsed or nearly collapsed due in a large part to failure to have an appropriate increase brand awareness strategy

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Why would you not live in a 3D printed home

The construction industry has many innovations to solve the housing crisis in UK quicker. Could the quickest and cheapest solution to the housing crisis be 3D printing?

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Ramping up affordable homes in the UK is key to solving many social problems in UK. The UK housing crisis requires more than one solution. Perhaps 3D printed homes is one realistic solution right now not tomorrow.

Traditional methods of building affordable housing in the UK can be too expensive. If house building is too expensive houses will not get built. If homes do not get built the UK economy suffers as well as people.

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UK Economy Weak Start To 2018 Due To Weather Not Economic Climate

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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.

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Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.

In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.

With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.

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Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.

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Will you suffer catastrophic loss to disruptive innovation or become a business disruptor yourself

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Protect yourself and benefit from innovation driven business growth

The 4th Industrial Revolution is upon us. For some it will be a plague but for others it’ll will be a feast.

Every day you can find multiple great ideas that could potentially disruptive the current way of doing things. My favourites at the moment are flying modes of transport that could easily replace vehicles that have to travel on roads and flying machines that briefly go to space to get to their destination quicker. They may seem like far off technological developments, but the technology works now.   Its flight rules and regulations that will hold them back to protect carmakers and airplane makers not technology risks.

Everyday new innovative ideas and products flood onto the market. For most it will be like Tomorrows World. The innovative ideas will not be sustainable. We want to work with people who want to take over the world in a good way!

Pull in our resources to make innovation-driven business growth more likely to succeed and maximise the return of your investment of time and money.

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If you don’t have time to be innovators you may need to find time to protect against business market disruptors

Fatal existential business decisions are easy to see in hindsight. Foresight consultants can help you take steps to protect yourself from your own poor business decisions.

Anyone can take a wrong turn. If you’re lucky the decision may not be malignant. You might survive to fight another day. On the other hand.

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Your brand maybe vulnerable to others who have been thinking differently, or from changes to the marketplace. It may fail cause your performance ain’t good enough, or because your competitors change the rules of the game.

How you fail may not matter too much after you’ve failed. It will be too late to consider what you are doing wrong. Kodak didn’t want to change when they had to change to survive. They were making too much money from photographs to change to embrace digital photography. Market changes can kill the best businesses.

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Being more innovative or creative can be frightening. Picking the wrong horse in a paddock of new opportunities can be very costly. Innovation can also be exciting and highly rewarding.

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Your Business Forecast To Grow Faster Than The CBI Thinks

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CBI does not speak for all UK business leaders.

Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports

Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.

Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.

Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business

Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.

UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not

Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.

Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.

UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas

This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.

Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.

If you want to explore ways to sell more and export more from the UK then click here – and enter code UK EXPORTER when you complete form. Alternatively, complete the form below and enter same code.

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You Control the Solutions to Your Business Problems: Exploring Creative Thinking and Problem Solving in Business

In the dynamic landscape of business, problems are inevitable. From operational inefficiencies to market challenges, businesses face a myriad of obstacles that require strategic thinking and effective problem-solving skills. The ability to identify, analyse, and resolve these issues is crucial for organisational success and growth. This article explores the significance of problem solving in the business realm, delving into the BusinessRiskTV model as a powerful tool for addressing challenges. Furthermore, it highlights the role of creative thinking in problem solving and provides three practical ways businesses can leverage creativity to overcome obstacles.

  1. Understanding the Solution to Business Problems
    Before diving into the solutions, it is essential to grasp the concept of business problems and their significance. Business problems can range from operational bottlenecks to strategic dilemmas, and their resolution plays a vital role in maintaining competitive advantage and ensuring sustainability. By identifying the root causes of problems and employing appropriate problem-solving techniques, businesses can create innovative solutions that drive progress and success.
  2. The BusinessRiskTV Model of Problem Solving
    The BusinessRiskTV model offers a structured approach to problem solving, enabling businesses to navigate challenges effectively. This model involves six key steps: problem identification, analysis, solution generation, evaluation, implementation, and review. By following these steps, organisations can systematically address problems, ensuring comprehensive and sustainable solutions. The model encourages a proactive mindset, emphasising the importance of continuous improvement and learning from past experiences.
  3. The Importance of Solving Business Problems
    Solving business problems holds numerous benefits for organisations. Firstly, it helps optimise operational efficiency by identifying and eliminating inefficiencies, reducing costs, and improving productivity. Secondly, problem solving enables businesses to adapt to changing market conditions, seize opportunities, and stay ahead of the competition. Furthermore, effective problem-solving fosters a culture of innovation, empowering employees to think critically and contribute to the organisation’s growth.
  4. Leveraging Creative Thinking in Problem Solving
    Creative thinking plays a crucial role in solving complex business problems. By encouraging fresh perspectives, challenging assumptions, and exploring unconventional solutions, businesses can unlock new possibilities and generate innovative ideas. This section explores three key ways in which organisations can utilise creative thinking:

a. Divergent Thinking: Encouraging brainstorming sessions and open discussions enables teams to generate a wide range of ideas. By embracing diversity and inclusivity, businesses can tap into the collective wisdom of their workforce and uncover unique solutions.

b. Design Thinking: This human-centered approach emphasises empathy, understanding, and collaboration. By immersing themselves in the customer’s perspective, businesses can develop innovative solutions that cater to their needs, preferences, and pain points.

c. Reverse Thinking: This approach involves challenging the status quo and flipping the problem on its head. By questioning assumptions and exploring alternative perspectives, businesses can discover fresh insights and uncover unconventional solutions.

What is the solution to the problem in the business? What is the McKinsey model of problem solving? Why is it important to solve business problems? What are 3 ways a business can use creative thinking to solve business problems?
What are business problems you may need to solve today?

Solving business problems is an imperative aspect of organisational success. By embracing the BusinessRiskTV model and incorporating creative thinking, businesses can take control of their challenges and pave the way for innovation and growth. The ability to identify problems, analyse their root causes, and generate effective solutions enables organisations to adapt to dynamic market conditions and gain a competitive edge. Moreover, by fostering a culture of creative thinking, businesses can unlock new perspectives and ideas, fueling continuous improvement and long-term success. Ultimately, the power to control the solutions to business problems lies within the organisation itself, and by leveraging their resources, knowledge, and creativity, businesses can overcome obstacles and thrive in an ever-evolving business landscape.

Then take action to reduce the risk of failure

What is achievable in your business?

Know with more certainty what your business could achieve if it makes some changes.

Understand Key Threats And Opportunities

Use risk management experts to help you make right choices

Once you know what your biggest business problems are you can identify how to best use limited business resources to reap the quickest gains to achieve greater business success more quickly.

Too often people in business at all levels of the organisation are working extremely hard. This can be a problem because they can burn out whilst solving problems that do not matter to the achievement of key business objectives. Solutions include employing more staff to work on the same minor business problems then business leaders wonder why they are spending more without any increase in business productivity and no business performance improvement.

Improving business performance requires better use of existing key business assets for a better return in your investment of time and money.

Develop the quality and capacity of your workforce to achieve more for themselves and the business

Training employees to help themselves will help your business achieve its objectives by overcoming the biggest business problems more easily with existing  resources.

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What are your biggest business problems

If you can’t answer this question immediately, right now, then you are missing out on quick more profitable gains to easily make your business more successful.

If you can answer this question immediately and with near absolute certainty then you should be performing pretty efficiently already. If not why haven’t you taken steps to remove barriers to your greater business and personal success?

Develop a new business management strategy with a new decision making process designed to help you identify evaluate and manage your biggest business problems more cost-effectively. If you can’t tell us what your biggest problems are in a very short summary of the key information then you haven’t truly identified your biggest critical business problems impacting on your business objectives.

Strategy to compete with competitors

Discover How To Beat The Competition In Sales

You could develop a new business strategy for success that is less complicated, cheaper to implement and brings greatest rewards if you change your thinking about business management.

This could be a pivotal moment for your business

You either know exactly what you need to do today to change your business trajectory or you may need a little outside help. BusinessRiskTV can provide that help.   If you do not need help we wish you well for the future.   If you do need help get in touch below and tell us what you need help with.

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