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Managing Eurozone business risks better for better protection and faster growth regardless of the biggest threats to Eurozones recovery. What are the key threats to the Eurozone this year?
Despite the 2008 financial crisis seeming like along time ago, given the rapidly changing global political and economic developments the old problem of systemic banking collapse in the Eurozone is still the biggest risk that could be the prelude the break-up of the Eurozone.
After the banks or as part of the banking risk Brexit is perhaps the next biggest threat to the sustainability of the Eurozone. Business leaders just want certainty when it comes to the economic environment they operate in. It is in the European Union EU and UKs mutual interest to conclude Brexit negotiations well before the two-year period ends after article 50 is triggered by the UK in late March 2017. Stringing out the agreed deal is damaging for the whole of Europe. The UK leaving the EU swiftly is better for all concerned. Political uncertainty is putting the Eurozones financial stability at risk.
Learn how to manage the top corporate risks in the Eurozone. Join our Eurozone members for collaboration on business protection and growth in the Eurozone.
Feature How can corporate governance risk management and regulatory compliance GRC help with Eurozone risks?
Use best practice enterprise risk management framework, principles and risk assessment process to help mitigate risks and seize new business development opportunities in the Eurozone trading area.
What do you want out of the Eurozone? Access help to make your business objectives in the Eurozone more successful.
What contingency plans does your business have for the break-up of the Eurozone? Could business contingency plans BCPs promote business growth if the Eurozone sticks together too.
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14th January 2019 Eurozone Industrial Output Suffers Biggest Fall Since Febrary 2016 In November
The European Unions EUs statistics office Eurostat estimated that industrial production in the 19 nation euro zone fell by 1.7 percent in November month on month.
The next eurozone crisis has already started #EurozoneRecession https://t.co/bWXCsQEXdE
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) January 11, 2019
Tweets from https://twitter.com/HolisticRiskMgt/lists/business-eurozone-forum
10th January 2019 Eurozone Unemployment Falls
The eurozone unemployment rate has fallen to 7.9 percent in November according to European Unions EU statistical office Eurostat. which is lowest since October 2008.
18th December 2018 European Central Bank ECB Stops Quantitative Easing QE This Month
ECB bows to pressure from bigger economic countries like Germany and will stop QE this month. Other countries like Greece Spain and Italy need the QE cash flow taps to remain open to help create more jobs and business opportunities for growth. Even France is struggling economically as it is breaking European Commission EC fiscal rules unofficially.
Inflation in eurozone is only 1.1 percent far from the target of health inflation of 2 percent. QE encourages inflation closing monetary taps depresses inflation. The Eurozone could be heading for deflation which will require a restarting of QE by ECB.
14th December 2018 Euro Zone Economy Continues To Perform Poorly At End 2018
Euro zone business expanding at slowest pace in over four years due to global trade barriers and particularly poor economic performance in in France.
This month France economy contracted due to anti government protests on streets of France.
The European Central Bank ECB has decided to end its QE monetary easing asset buying scheme. The eurozone economy is slowing and the ECB is withdrawing economic stimulus.
20th November 2018 Ever Closer Eurozone Gets Closer
Eurozone is set to have a Euroz Zone wide budget by 2021. The Franco-German proposal does not have unanimous accpetance that it is a great idea but is set to have approval for 19 eurozone countries.
The plans inlcude linking the first eurozone wide budget to the European Union EU framework and be part of the next EU long term budget and subject to same budgetary rules. This includes financial penalties for non compliance with rules.
The new budget will bind eurozone countries ever closer together. The Franco German proposal has been welcomed by the Eurogroup.
12th November 2018 Slowing Eurozone Growth Is Normalisation Of Trend Growth Levels
Euro zone growth is simply returning to normal trend pattern after an exceptional 2017. The current eurozone economic growth slowdown is primarily due to weaker external demand according to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos.
8th November 2018 Eurozone Unemployment 8.1 Percent
European Commission EC is forecasting slowing euro zone growth in future. Eurozone Economic Risks include
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- Trade war with USA
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- Brexit
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- High member country debt levels
- Banking collapse particularly Italian banks
The EC thinks euro zone inflation is 1.8 percent and thinks it will stay below target of 2 percent in 2019.
Eurozone growth in 2018 is forecast to be 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent in 2019.
30th October 2018 Euro Zone Growth Slowed To 1.7 Percent
Compared to same period as last year eurozone annualised growth has slowed to 1.7 percent.
The eurozones third biggest economy has stopped growing which makes the Italian governments 2019 budget even more out of kilter with European Union EU fiscal rules. The EU has rejected Italys 2019 budget proposal.
Germanys car manufacturing emissions scandal has led to a slowdown in the car buying marketplace which is impacting negatively on EU economic performance.
24th October 2018 Euro Zone Growth Slowed Faster Than Expected
IHS Markit survey in October found that euro zone business growth slowed more than expected.
Internal eurozone problems include the first time a member country has had its budget rejected by the European Commission EC for breaking European Union EU rules.
External eurozone problems include the growing problems arising from global trade disputes particularly between USA and EU and USA and China.
ECB to focus on bond-buying exit as threats mount https://t.co/EFXKns4ZIb #ECB #EuropeanUnion #EU #Eurozone
— Risk Management (@HolisticRiskMgt) October 23, 2018
19th September 2018 Eurozone Banking Union Getting Closer?
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said that he wants euro zone governments to this year on next steps for completing their banking union in order to make the single currency bloc resilient for the next crisis.
For those who think that every closer union is off the table should again realise that eventually the European Union EU countries will all have the euro and all have banking union. It is the only way for the Eurozone and wider European Union to work well.
It may not happen in the next decade but it is going to happen in the next 100 years. You may or may not think this is a good idea but it will become reality sooner rather than later.
31st August 2018 Euro Zone Countries Must Do More To Grow Faster
European Central Bank ECB President Luis de Guindos thinks the euro zone block of countries must do more to protect itself from another financial crisis. The euro zone block of countries must transform their institutions at national and European Union EU level.
National governments and the EU must do more to support economic growth instead of relying on the ECB for QE and low interest rates.
31st August 2018 Eurozone Interest Rates Should Be Increased
Austrias central bank governor Ewald Nowotny thinks the European Central Bank ECB should begin normalising interest rates. Getting interest rates out of negative territory would be a fundamental step on the recovery process.
However the ECB does not plan to increase interest rates until autumn 2019. The ECB does plan to end quantitative easing QE by the end of 2018.
31st July 2018 Eurozone Economic Growth Slows
Eurozone growth slowed in second quarter. The eurozone economy is growing at an annualised rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter compared to 2.5 percent in the first quarter of the year.
- Eurozone inflation in July was 2.1 percent compared to 2 percent in June.
- Unemployment in eurozone continues to fall but is still very high compared to other modern industrialised areas of the world. Eurozone unemployment rate in June was 8.3 percent.
The eurozone continues to recover from the financial crisis in 2008 but a decade later progress is slow.
21st July 2018 Eurozones Biggest Threat Is Political Not Economics
Eurozone growth is already under pressure after a period of relief from the 2008 financial crisis. Joint threats from USA and UK could kill eurozone growth in coming months.
The UK is more likely to leave the European Union EU without a deal. Such a position could send the Eurozone into a recession as its current growth trend is very weak. Add into the mix a growing threat of a trade war with USA then the Eurozone could fall into recession in coming months.
18th July 2018 Euro Zone Inflation Is 2 Percent
Eurostat the European Union EU official statistics office confirmed Eurozone inflation was 2 percent in June 2018.
The Eurozone will probably keep interest rates at record lows until the autumn of 2019 but is expected to stop making money so cheaply available via its Quantitative Easing QE programme at the end of 2018 calendar year.
12th July 2018 Euro Zone Economic Growth Slowing
European Commission EC cuts eurozone economic growth forecast for 2018. The EC says eurozone growth will now be 2.1 percent not 2.3 percent previously forecast. Eurozone economic growth was 2.4 percent in 2017 so growth in the eurozone is slowing.
22nd June 2018 The Problem For Eurozone Is Not Lack of Money But Lack Of Businesses To Invest In
According to the European Central Bank ECB lending survey the availability of money is not an issue for banks. The problem is finding firms with viable business plans worthy of banking loans.
Have you got a Eurozone business worthy of investing in?
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