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The UK economy performed relatively well compared to most of Europe. The UK economy has been a job creation machine with record low unemployment levels over recent months. However UK productivity has been poor. UK business leaders need to find new innovative ways to do more business in the UK.

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Whilst the London economy is the biggest net contributor to UK government receipts and UK economy as a whole the UK economy can grow faster if all parts of the economy receive equal investment. Recent years has shown that London has received a disproportionate level of investment per head of population. If the distribution of investment was more equitable per head of population then the UK pie as a whole will grow faster.

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The UK has a skills gap crisis. Not enough people have the skills needed to grow the UK economy needs. The UK government and private sector needs to massively invest in retraining its workforce.

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Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.

Currently despite what some politicians and commentators are saying the UK economy continues to grow. Year on year the UK economy is growing at just over 1 percent. Not setting the heather on fire but still growing!

Even if the UK economy was contracting your business can build resilience and grow.

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The global economy is recovering slowly. 2018 could see a leap in global business activity as key countries like China and America suck in more trade and export more. Some Eurozone countries are growing very fast in comparison to recent years and the Eurozone as a whole is growing once again.

Find out how risks in the biggest countries or trade areas in the world creates threats and opportunities for your business wherever you are in the world and wherever you want to export to.

It would help if the G20 countries could create business opportunities more than they create threats for the benefit of the whole world including emerging economies. However you may also need to take actions to mitigate the impact of these countries on your business.

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BusinessRiskTV Key Business Risk Review will help you identify and control key business risks impacting on your business. We cover the main types of business risk.

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Know the key business risks impacting on your business objectives and understand how to manage the risks better.

Not all risks need to be managed. Some should just be identified assessed and accepted to achieve your business objectives. You need to consider the kinds of events that could pose a risk to your business and take steps to mitigate them. You also need to identify and assess new business opportunities so you deploy business assets for best return.

Examples of business risks under review

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  • Regulatory Compliance Risk. Changing health safety or environmental legislation or a new court case setting a new precedent.
  • Financial Risk, Changing interest rates creating new business opportunities or threats
  • Operational Risk. Fire taking out key production line plant or equipment.

Manage such risks better to reduce of lower than anticipated profits or increase the chance of higher profit and business growth.

Identify which business risks threatening your business or creating new business opportunities to achieve greater success

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Business is about taking risks. However taking more informed risks will help you achieve what you want for your business with more confidence.

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CBI does not speak for all UK business leaders.

Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports

Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.

Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.

Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business

Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.

UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not

Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.

Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.

UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas

This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.

Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.

If you want to explore ways to sell more and export more from the UK then click here – and enter code UK EXPORTER when you complete form. Alternatively, complete the form below and enter same code.

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25th June 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Economy To Shrink Nearly 5 Percent In 2020

The IMF is now predicting a deeper global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Even if the spread of the virus reduces which it is not consumers will be too frightened to spend at the same level as prepandemic. This will hit the the global economy hard.

8th June 2020 World Bank Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic To Shrink Global GDP By 5.2 Percent In 2020

The forecast if it is right will be worst global economic contraction since World War II. The World Bank is forecasting global economic growth of 4.2 percent in 2021.

26th May 2020 The Second Wave Is Often The Biggest Killer

Going back centuries we can see that it is often the second wave of infections that kill more people than the first hit of the pandemic. While some countries are getting to grips with the Covid19 pandemic others have yet to feel the full force of the new deadly virus.

The game changer will be a vaccine but without that most countries will experience second third or more waves of Covid19. How big these waves impact will depend on learning the lessons from the first wave and not repeating the same or similar mistakes.

A large second wave of the virus with run away exponential spreading that forces reinforcement of social and economic lockdown would be catastrophic. The reproduction rate in countries where the virus is under control must be kept below 1. Countries which do not have the virus under control need to be quarantined to prevent them spreading the virus back into controlled country environments.

Even without a second wave of deaths the first wave tsunami economic wave may hurt localised areas whole continents and the world:

  • Some countries will not be able to pay their debts built up prior to pandemic or during the pandemic.
  • The eurozone and wider European union could implode from within. Alternatively some weaker countries may be forced to leave for the sake of survival of the rest as a homogeneous economic unit.
  • Systemic banking collapse could yet occur. Italian Indian and Chinese banks are particularly weak. However unknown weaknesses in other national banking systems could be the first domino to fall.
  • Corporate entities soaked in debt may have to close creating bad debt others may struggle to cope with.
  • Commercial and private valuations will in the short term be overpriced. Investments which have such assets are also overpriced. If there is not a V-shaped recovery in the economy then in the medium term this could create an unstable finance sector that could be a lot more damaging than lost revenue for a few months.
  • The political fundamentals could change when people react to the dawning that not only have thousands of people died but their financial futures are ruined for decades or perhaps lifetimes. Russia Brazil and India could presently be smoldering in embers of political change which could affect oil prices and the global economy.

Most of all debt was a problem for many countries prior to pandemic. With the pandemic debt has been posted as the saviour. It could become a bigger killer than the virus.

14th April 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports The Global Economy Shrinking 3 Percent Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic

The IMF had forecast a growth of 3.5 percent for the the global economy pre pandemic. This means the IMF is forecasting a 6.5 percent swing from growth to global recession.

The financial crisis in 2009 only saw a global recession of 0.1 percent. This economic and financial crisis is 30 times worse than 2009 financial crisis. Next year the IMF expects a massive bounce back to global economic growth. Not all businesses will survive to see it.

23rd March 2020 Global Recession Due To Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Is Guaranteed

The only uncertainty is whether the global economy will deteriorate so much that a long term global economic depression happens.

20th January 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts 2020 and 2021

The IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. Risks to the global economy include:

  • High levels of inequality within countries and between countries
  • The rapid development of 4th industrial revolution technology threatening unemployment rises
  • High geopolitical risks and trade wars
  • Financial meltdown due to very high levels of debt

The IMF can see signs that some risks are stabilising but still significant threat to global growth.

9th January 2020 Now The Iran USA Immediate Threat Of War Is Dissipating The Global Economic Threat Returns To International Trade Wars

The signs are that both USA and Iran can agree to disagree again within killing thousands of people. The biggest threat to the global economy is the trade wars around the world particularly USA China trade war. Even this threat appears to be unwinding in its severity especially if they can do a partial deal soon.

If America and China can do a trade deal sign it and implement it the global economy can expand aggressively. It will be like the cork in a bottle of champagne.

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Until then and in addition to such a trade deal governments around the world need to invest heavily in infrastructure to support the global economy and prepare for rapid expansion 2021 onwards.

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