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Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.
Currently despite what some politicians and commentators are saying the UK economy continues to grow. Year on year the UK economy is growing at just over 1 percent. Not setting the heather on fire but still growing!
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19th July 2019 Ebola Outbreak Crisis Worsens
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CBI does not speak for all UK business leaders.
Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports
Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.
Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.
Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business
Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.
UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not
Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.
Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.
UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas
This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.
Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.
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25th June 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Says Global Economy To Shrink Nearly 5 Percent In 2020
The IMF is now predicting a deeper global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Even if the spread of the virus reduces which it is not consumers will be too frightened to spend at the same level as prepandemic. This will hit the the global economy hard.
8th June 2020 World Bank Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic To Shrink Global GDP By 5.2 Percent In 2020
The forecast if it is right will be worst global economic contraction since World War II. The World Bank is forecasting global economic growth of 4.2 percent in 2021.
26th May 2020 The Second Wave Is Often The Biggest Killer
Going back centuries we can see that it is often the second wave of infections that kill more people than the first hit of the pandemic. While some countries are getting to grips with the Covid19 pandemic others have yet to feel the full force of the new deadly virus.
The game changer will be a vaccine but without that most countries will experience second third or more waves of Covid19. How big these waves impact will depend on learning the lessons from the first wave and not repeating the same or similar mistakes.
A large second wave of the virus with run away exponential spreading that forces reinforcement of social and economic lockdown would be catastrophic. The reproduction rate in countries where the virus is under control must be kept below 1. Countries which do not have the virus under control need to be quarantined to prevent them spreading the virus back into controlled country environments.
Even without a second wave of deaths the first wave tsunami economic wave may hurt localised areas whole continents and the world:
Some countries will not be able to pay their debts built up prior to pandemic or during the pandemic.
The eurozone and wider European union could implode from within. Alternatively some weaker countries may be forced to leave for the sake of survival of the rest as a homogeneous economic unit.
Systemic banking collapse could yet occur. ItalianIndian and Chinese banks are particularly weak. However unknown weaknesses in other national banking systems could be the first domino to fall.
Corporate entities soaked in debt may have to close creating bad debt others may struggle to cope with.
Commercial and private valuations will in the short term be overpriced. Investments which have such assets are also overpriced. If there is not a V-shaped recovery in the economy then in the medium term this could create an unstable finance sector that could be a lot more damaging than lost revenue for a few months.
The political fundamentals could change when people react to the dawning that not only have thousands of people died but their financial futures are ruined for decades or perhaps lifetimes. RussiaBrazil and India could presently be smoldering in embers of political change which could affect oil prices and the global economy.
Most of all debt was a problem for many countries prior to pandemic. With the pandemic debt has been posted as the saviour. It could become a bigger killer than the virus.
14th April 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports The Global Economy Shrinking 3 Percent Due To The Coronavirus Pandemic
The IMF had forecast a growth of 3.5 percent for the the global economy pre pandemic. This means the IMF is forecasting a 6.5 percent swing from growth to global recession.
The financial crisis in 2009 only saw a global recession of 0.1 percent. This economic and financial crisis is 30 times worse than 2009 financial crisis. Next year the IMF expects a massive bounce back to global economic growth. Not all businesses will survive to see it.
23rd March 2020 Global Recession Due To Coronavirus COVID19 Pandemic Is Guaranteed
The only uncertainty is whether the global economy will deteriorate so much that a long term global economic depression happens.
20th January 2020 International Monetary Fund IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts 2020 and 2021
The IMF is now forecasting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. Risks to the global economy include:
High levels of inequality within countries and between countries
The rapid development of 4th industrial revolution technology threatening unemployment rises
High geopolitical risks and trade wars
Financial meltdown due to very high levels of debt
The IMF can see signs that some risks are stabilising but still significant threat to global growth.
9th January 2020 Now The Iran USA Immediate Threat Of War Is Dissipating The Global Economic Threat Returns To International Trade Wars
The signs are that both USA and Iran can agree to disagree again within killing thousands of people. The biggest threat to the global economy is the trade wars around the world particularly USA China trade war. Even this threat appears to be unwinding in its severity especially if they can do a partial deal soon.
If America and China can do a trade deal sign it and implement it the global economy can expand aggressively. It will be like the cork in a bottle of champagne.
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Until then and in addition to such a trade deal governments around the world need to invest heavily in infrastructure to support the global economy and prepare for rapid expansion 2021 onwards.
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