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Everything You Need To Know About Strong UK Economic Growth

How does economic growth affect businesses in UK positively and negatively

Recent UK economic growth forecast 2021 from Bank Of England is supersonic fast 7.25 percent. Why is economic growth important? Fundamentally, UK economic growth raises the standard of living for everyone working and living in the UK. Focusing on managing the risks of growth or lack of is why we are here. Read business risk management articles on UK economic growth barriers, opportunities and catalysts. By helping you understand the threats and freedom to expand your business you can grow your business faster with less uncertainty.

If you are a business leader or owner in UK or wanting to sell into the UK, find out what you should be worrying about and what you should be taking advantage of now. Now is the time to improve your management of business risks.

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Why BusinessRiskTV.com is a Valuable Resource for Business Owners

Now that you know how to get business news alerts on BusinessRiskTV.com, let’s take a closer look at why this site is such a valuable resource for business owners.

  1. Comprehensive Coverage of Industries: BusinessRiskTV.com covers a wide range of industries, from finance and technology to healthcare and more. This makes it a valuable resource for business owners in any industry who want to stay informed about the latest news and trends.
  2. Timely and Reliable Information: BusinessRiskTV.com is known for its timely and reliable information. The site has a team of expert reporters who work to deliver breaking news and analysis as it happens, so you can be the first to know about important developments in your industry.
  3. Customizable Alerts: BusinessRiskTV.com offers customizable alerts, so you can choose the types of news and information you want to receive. This ensures that you’re only getting alerts that are relevant to your business and industry.
  4. In-Depth Analysis: In addition to breaking news alerts, BusinessRiskTV.com also offers in-depth analysis and commentary on the latest developments in various industries. This analysis can help you gain a deeper understanding of the trends and issues impacting your business.
  5. Free to Use: BusinessRiskTV.com is a free resource for business owners. There are no fees or subscriptions required to access the site’s news and information, making it an accessible resource for businesses of all sizes.

In today’s fast-paced business environment, staying informed about the latest news and trends in your industry is essential. By getting business news alerts on BusinessRiskTV.com, you can stay up-to-date on breaking news, market trends, and other important developments that could impact your business.

BusinessRiskTV.com offers comprehensive coverage of a wide range of industries, with timely and reliable information delivered through customizable alerts. The site also offers in-depth analysis and commentary to help you gain a deeper understanding of the trends and issues impacting your business.

Best of all, BusinessRiskTV.com is a free resource for business owners. So if you’re looking for a reliable and valuable source of business news and information, be sure to check out BusinessRiskTV.com today.

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It would help if the G20 countries could create business opportunities more than they create threats for the benefit of the whole world including emerging economies. However you may also need to take actions to mitigate the impact of these countries on your business.

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Free Up Time For Business

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Time is a precious commodity in the business world. As an entrepreneur, it’s easy to get bogged down with tasks and responsibilities that keep you from focusing on what’s most important for your business’s success. Here are some tips on how to free up your time to focus on what truly matters:

  1. Delegate tasks: One of the biggest time-wasters for entrepreneurs is trying to do everything themselves. Delegate tasks to trusted employees or contractors to lighten your load and give you more time to focus on your strengths.
  2. Automate routine tasks: Automation tools can save you a significant amount of time by streamlining repetitive tasks. From email marketing to invoicing, there’s a tool available to help you save time.
  3. Prioritise tasks: Make a to-do list each day and prioritize tasks based on their importance. Focus on the most critical tasks first, and don’t waste time on tasks that can wait.
  4. Manage your email: Email can quickly consume a lot of your time if you’re not careful. Set aside specific times each day to check your email, and avoid checking it constantly. Use filters and folders to keep your inbox organised.
  5. Avoid multitasking: Multitasking may seem like an effective way to get more done, but it can actually slow you down and reduce your productivity. Focus on one task at a time and give it your full attention.
  6. Set boundaries: Set boundaries for when you will and won’t be available for work. This can include not checking email after hours, not answering calls on weekends, or setting aside time for a lunch break.
  7. Take care of yourself: Finally, make sure you’re taking care of yourself. Exercise regularly, get enough sleep, and make time for leisure activities. A well-rested and healthy mind is more productive and better equipped to tackle the important tasks at hand.

By following these tips, you can free up your time and focus on what really matters for a successful business. Remember, time is your most valuable resource, so prioritise it and use it wisely.

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UK Economy Weak Start To 2018 Due To Weather Not Economic Climate

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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.

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Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney

Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.

In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.

With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.

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Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.

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Future Of The High Street

What do people want from the High Street

Not just shops! Just shopping on the High Street is no longer enough for the consumer nor the High Street. We have to be a bit smarter more innovative and put into action a more radical approach to delivering what people want from the High Street now.

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The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less

Britains High Streets have a bright future if entrepreneurs business leaders and local planners are a bit smarter

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The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less if we work at building a better future for the High Street in UK.

Retail therapy is still important to many but the High Street can do so much more for the local community

Retail experts have a role to play on the High Street in the UK. They need to be a bit more imaginative creative and innovative to deliver a High Street fit for the future. Selling stuff is no longer enough. Entrepreneurial retailers will sell experiences night and day.

The notice of the Death of the High Street is premature!

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Looking Back To Move Forward

Understand your business risks with enterprise risk analysis on BusinessRiskTV for your country or industry

Looking back at past mistakes to make future better

In order to move forward we must look back. If we want to create a better future for our businesses we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the past.

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Sometimes you have to look back to move forward

Nobody wants to make mistakes. Where they have been made we should not repeat them

  • Achieve what we want from business decisions quicker and easier
  • Reduce risk of duplicating past mistakes by learning the lessons
  • Benefit from others mistakes as well as your own mistakes

Learn how to use past mistakes to make business better. Undertake risk reviews to check what  went wrong and why. Develop real risk insight to build your business intelligence.

Often we learn more from failure than success. Ultimate business performance can be higher after lessons learnt. Not reviewing risk management errors condemns you to repeating them.

Transform your business on back of past mistakes. Your past mistakes can be the foundation of your future success. However do not dwell on past mistakes. Learn lessons move on but do not keep picking wounds.

Step into your future by looking back at past mistakes

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Collaborate with business leaders around world. Learn lessons from their mistakes and from businesses not in the collaboration. Review business mistakes so we do not suffer same fate.

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Financial Services Jobs At Risk Of Automation

The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit

Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.

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Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job

No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!

Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.

However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!

FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be

  • less emotional
  • more reliable and
  • after a few years significantly cheaper

How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!

Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.

  • Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
  • Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
  • C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
  • Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
  • Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!

Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!

However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.

Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk

  • Mortgage advice
  • Financial and investment advice
  • Insurance advice
  • Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!

Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!

There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!

BusinessRiskTV Financial Services Jobs At Risk Of Automation

Why Business Risk Management Is Important

Manage business risks better with BusinessRiskTV.com

An holistic business risk management approach ensures the best use of business resources.

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Practical ways to manage risk better. Tackle common business risks holistically enterprise wide. Learn best practice risk management techniques in business.

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Its not about how to reduce risk

External or internal driven risks threaten your business. They also create new business development opportunities. Reducing the effect of uncertainty on your business is important.

How do you manage enterprise risks? Do you put risk into different silos like safety, insurance, cyber risk, sales strategy etc? They can be rolled into one holistic risk based approach.

What is the most effective way for a business to manage risk? Look at what you are trying to achieve? Could you achieve more with your existing assets? Has good luck been saving you from disaster?

Understand the bigger picture first. When you know what risk you have then manage it.

There is danger being in business. Danger that you could blow your value. Danger you could under perform.

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Do you have an effective risk management framework

Risk management tools and techniques too support enterprise risk management framework

Upgrade your framework for implementing risk management. Pick up more information on designing the risk management framework that supports your risk management process. Define your risk management framework for supporting enterprise risk management principles and practices. If you have the mandate and commitment for enterprise risk management from the top of your organisation you can begin building the risk management framework to make the risk assessment process work well.

Get help restructuring your risk management framework

You need to clearly define where you are now and where you want to be including the benefits you want from embarking on embedding enterprise risk management.

What is the context or reasons for wanting to change the way you manage risks? 

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Develop you own risk management policy and communicate it to all stakeholders in the business. Work on what you need to do to embed enterprise risk management within your normal business decision making process.

  • Implement your new enterprise risk management framework
  • Implement your chosen risk management process
  • Monitor review and update your risk management systems

Constantly work at improving your risk management framework.

Your risk management framework should clearly define how you are going to communicate your enterprise risk management policy and procedures. Key people in the enterprise risk management framework should have clearly defined roles and responsibilities to support the risk management process.

Your risk management strategy should set out the objectives that risk management activities in the organisation are seeking to achieve.

Create a risk management framework to support better enterprise wide decision making

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Do you understand weaknesses and strengths of your business strategy

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Could you be wasting your business resources? Could you achieve more with the business assets you already have? Find out how to protect and grow your business faster with less uncertainty.

Will your strategy for business success fail or fail to achieve more?

Analysing your business strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats will help you understand your business better and the marketplace within which you need to succeed. By identifying where you are now within the market will facilitate any assessment of the best strategies for future business success.

  1. Decide how best to allocate your limited resources to get the best return of your invest of money and time
  2. Assess which weaknesses and threats to mitigate and which to accept
  3. Assess which strengths you need to capitalise upon
  4. Assess which new business opportunities will bring greatest reward from the same cost of capital and management time.
  5. Set a new strategy for business success with more confidence

Not only must you protect your business but you must explore the opportunity cost of not doing something that could bring greater rewards with the same cost.

By getting the most from your money and time you can maximise the profitability of your business.

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How To Take Over The World

We are linking up with people around the world to be more innovative and to sell more profitably

It’s a big world out there! A lot of people or other businesses need what you are offering. They just need to know why you are the better than your competitors at delivering what you are offering.

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We are working with like-minded individuals around the world to create new business opportunities for everyone on the bus.

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Use our tools and techniques to boost your business opportunities around the world. We can help you develop new income in your normal markets but we encourage you to look beyond the norm and aim for global domination!

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Stress Test Global Economy

Does the world present great dangers to your business survival or great opportunities to expand?

What risks present threats and opportunities to your business today?

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Where is the automotive industry going

Exploring the future of automotive industry on BusinessRiskTV.com

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New Automotive Industry Entrants and Cross Sector Collaboration Will Bring New Threats and Opportunities

Where is the automotive industry going
The blurring of lines between old world car manufacturers and hi-tech new world manufacturers continues in world of 4IR

22nd July 2020 Fiat Chrysler will develop fully self driving commercial vehicles with Waymo

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCA News Report July 2020
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCA News Report July 2020

2nd July 2020 Tesla is now worlds most valuable carmaker overtaking Toyota

Whilst Toyota made 30 times more cars in 2019 Tesla share price now has made Tesla a more valuable carmaker

Tesla has now demonstrated several quarters of profitable business growth. The future is electric and Tesla offers more future value than any other manufacturer who makes electric cars.

26th June 2020 Amazon Robot Delivery plus Amazon Autonomous Self Driving Vehicles To Buy In Showroom?

Amazon is one of the most successful businesses at developing innovative business growth strategy. Last year Amazon invested half a billion dollars in self driving car startup Aurora Innovation Inc. This year it looks like Amazon is continuing its investment in the car sector.

Amazon Robot Delivery

Amazon has bought robotics and autonomous vehicle company Zoox. Are they just beefing up their knowledge and business intelligence for robotic self delivery or would you buy an Amazon self driving autonomous car from a showroom instead of a Tesla. Amazons purchase of Zoox is in the region of 3 billion dollars.

31st October 2019 PSA Group the owner of Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler Agree 50 Billion Dollar Merger

The merger will create the fourth largest automotive manufacturer in the world. The merger is needed strategically due to the significant investment required by both firms to keep up with the competition. Both firms need to invest heavily in electric cars and driverless technology to be ready now never mind the future sustainability.

28th August 2019 Toyota and Suzuki Collaborating On Self Driving Car Technology

Toyota and Suzuki announce they are working together on self driving car technology.

Toyota will take a 4.9 percent share of Suzuki Motor Corp and Suzuki will invest in Toyota

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22nd August 2019 Audi Daimler Ford and BMW Developing Alliance To Build Advanced Driving Assistance and Autonomous Systems According German Wirtschaftswoche Article.

The automotive manufacturers are collaborating on autonomous driving and parking systems.

The 4th industrial revolution is about to turn the automotive industry upside down  rip up traditional business models and will come out the other side better and stronger but very different.

Many new features in cars and other vehicles that took a decade to normalise across the industry will need to be incorporated in a few short years. The automotive industry as always evolved but a revolution is under way.

  • Those who don’t keep up will be squashed to death!
  • Those that get on the bus will see a very different road ahead.
  • Those that resist change will cease to exist, and those that embrace change may or may not benefit from the changes

The pace of change within components that do or could go into vehicles is fast but the pace in which the automotive industry is changing is breath-taking, and its accelerating!

The world’s auto industry will have more customers demands to meet, but what are they going to deliver and when? Automated vehicles powered by renewable energy is nothing new. How quickly can society keep up with what is possible on the roads? Will automotive industry take to the skies!   Will we get into autonomous vehicles AV and literally fly to work whilst playing computer games! Will the automobile get swallowed up whole by Google Apple and Sony?

The greatest challenge for the car industry is very similar to the greatest challenge for all gadgets gizmos plant machinery and equipment particularly those presently powered by carbon based power sources. Its battery technology that needs to change.

Tesla is leading the way not in cars but in batteries. Tesla batteries are being used to store power from the National Grid in the UK and then being fed back into the UK national electricity network when needed.

Decarbonisation is one factor driving the need to boost battery power for longer on remote items of plant and equipment like cars. However battery technology is key for all parts of global society for different reasons. In less well developed economies battery technology improvement will create new markets domestically and international trade development. In well developed economies like UK battery technology improvements will totally change what we manufacture and how we manufacture it.

Dyson cars will lock horns with Tesla cars but both will invest more in batteries than car design.

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3rd October 2018 GM and Honda New Project

General Motors and Honda have announced a partnership to develop and build an autonomous multi use vehicle together.

13th June 2018 VW Fined 1 Billion Euros By German Prosecutors

Volkswagen has been fined by German prosecutors for diesel emissions scandal. VW has already been fined by other countries for cheating the tests for diesel emissions. VW has agreed to pay more than 4 billion dollars to resolve criminal and civil penalties for installing illegal software in diesel engines to cheat USA anti pollution tests.

15th March 2018 Auto Parts Maker New Strategic Direction

Automotive parts supplier Magna International Inc will invest $200 million in ride-hailing firm Lyft. Their new partnership will develop and manufacture self driving cars.

20th February 2018 Ford Aims To Set Up German Bank To Offset Any Brexit Risk

Ford wants to set up a bank in Germany in late 2018 and has applied for a banking licence as part of Ford’s strategy to mitigate any risk from Britain leaving the European Union after the Brexit vote in June 2016.

Ford Credit Europe will remain headquartered in Britain and the new bank plans will not result in job losses or significant changes to where employees are based.

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Assessing the local impact of global risk events

Keep up to date with latest global risks that could impact on your business objectives with BusinessRiskTV

How can business leaders inform knowledge about global risk events that could impact on business decision-making?

Register for business risk management reports and risk management newsletter. Want to understand how risk could impact on your business? Get the latest business risk management reports and risk analysis reviews from BusinessRiskTV.

BusinessRiskTV Global Risk Report

Understanding global risks is important for all business leaders. Identifying and assessing the global risks is not a once a year task.

  1. Existing risks will morph into bigger risks to your business
  2. Small smaller risks will combine to create an aggregate risk that could even threaten the survival of your business.
  3. Emerging risks not obvious at the time of the report, could subside and just be accepted or they could gather momentum and threaten business objectives.

In addition the risks that could threaten some businesses could present an opportunity for your business to grow faster but if you miss the start of the opportunity you could miss the boat entirely or fail to maximise the potential rewards from the opportunity.

Unlike other less dynamic reporting systems companies or entitys BusinessRiskTV will provide you with regular risk reports to help you manage enterprise risks more proactively to mitigate threats to your business better and seize new business development opportunities earlier.

In short, BusinessRiskTV is less about looking back and offering expert risk reports with hindsight and more about looking forward with more dynamic forecasts backed up with practical risk management solutions for both the upside and downside aspects to global risks as it affects your business wherever you are in the world.

Filtering the global risks noise for your business

BusinessRiskTT will reduce the effort required to identify what your business needs to do next after assessing the magnitude of the risk to your country or industry in easy to understand language.

  • Take proportionate action to mitigate threats to your business
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  • Better protection faster growth in 2018

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Global Risk Events, Risk News and Economic Opinions

10 August 2022 – Global economic growth will slow to 3.2% this year from 6.1% in 2021, the IMF predicts.

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Your Business Forecast To Grow Faster Than The CBI Thinks

UK business forecasts and reports from BusinessRiskTV.com

CBI does not speak for all UK business leaders.

Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports

Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.

Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.

Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business

Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.

UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not

Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.

Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.

UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas

This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.

Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.

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Leaders In Business Innovation

UK Business Leaders Finding Innovative Ways To Be More Successful

Business innovation is the most important way to beat other companies to find new income streams and develop profitability in the UK.

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If not how are you going to identify it? If you do how are you going to capitalise on it?

Develop your business processes to ensure that innovative initiatives reach into your business strategies to ensure more success in future that is more sustainable.

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Focus on your future today to get best results! Individual investors can overcome poor economic performance if they are more informed before committing hard cash!

Over the long term, investments can give you a better chance of improving your lifestyle in future. What do you and most other people need in future, particularly in retirement? That’s what you should invest in now.

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The VIX Bullish Falling Wedge: A Sign of a Stock Market Crash?

12 July 2023

The VIX, or the CBOE Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index. It is often referred to as the “fear index” because it tends to rise when investors are feeling more fearful about the market.

In recent weeks, the VIX has been in a bullish falling wedge pattern. This is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash.

Why does the VIX go down when the market goes up?

The VIX is a measure of expected volatility, which means that it is based on how investors think the market will move in the future. When the market is going up, investors are less likely to expect volatility, which is why the VIX tends to go down.

Should I buy or sell when VIX is low?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Some investors believe that it is a good time to buy when the VIX is low, as this indicates that investors are feeling less fearful about the market. However, others believe that it is better to wait until the VIX has risen to a more moderate level before buying.

What should I look for before a market crash?

There are a number of things that investors can look for before a market crash. These include:

  • A rising VIX
  • A decline in market liquidity
  • A widening of credit spreads
  • A decline in economic growth
  • A rise in political uncertainty

What is the most important predictor of a market crash?

There is no one single factor that can definitively predict a market crash. However, the VIX is often seen as one of the most important predictors. A rising VIX indicates that investors are becoming more fearful about the market, which can be a sign that a crash is on the horizon.

Conclusion

The VIX bullish falling wedge is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash. Investors should carefully monitor the VIX and other market indicators in the coming weeks and months to assess the risk of a crash.

Keywords: VIX, volatility index, fear index, bullish falling wedge, market crash, market bottom, market liquidity, credit spreads, economic growth, political uncertainty

Additional Information

The VIX is a valuable tool for investors who want to stay ahead of the market. By monitoring the VIX, investors can get a sense of how fearful investors are about the market and make informed decisions about when to buy or sell.

However, it is important to remember that the VIX is not a perfect predictor of market crashes. There have been times when the VIX has been high and the market has not crashed, and there have also been times when the VIX has been low and the market has crashed.

As such, investors should not rely on the VIX alone to make investment decisions. They should also consider other factors, such as economic fundamentals and market sentiment, before making any trades.

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Small Business Financial Mistakes

Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

Small business owners often make financial mistakes that can have serious consequences for the success of their company. Here are some of the most common financial mistakes made by small business owners, and advice on how to prevent them:

  1. Not keeping accurate financial records: Without accurate financial records, it can be difficult for small business owners to make informed decisions about the financial health of their company. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should establish a system for keeping accurate financial records, such as using accounting software or hiring a bookkeeper.
  2. Not having a budget: A budget is an essential tool for small business owners, as it helps them to plan for expenses and manage cash flow. Without a budget, small business owners may overspend and find themselves in financial trouble. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should create a budget and stick to it.
  3. Not having enough working capital: Working capital is the amount of money a business has available to cover its short-term expenses. Without enough working capital, small business owners may struggle to pay bills and meet other financial obligations. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should maintain a healthy level of working capital by managing expenses and seeking financing when necessary.
  4. Not having adequate insurance: Insurance is an important tool for small business owners, as it helps protect their company against potential financial losses. Without adequate insurance, small business owners may find themselves facing financial ruin in the event of a disaster or other unexpected event. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should review their insurance needs and purchase the appropriate policies.
  5. Not diversifying investments: Small business owners often invest a significant portion of their assets in their own company, which can be risky. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should diversify their investments to spread risk.
  6. Not seeking professional advice: Small business owners often make financial decisions without seeking the advice of a professional. This can lead to costly mistakes. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should seek the advice of a financial advisor or accountant before making important financial decisions.

By avoiding these common financial mistakes, small business owners can increase the chances of success for their company.

Small Business Advice Forum
Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

More small business risk management articles and videos

  • Avoiding Financial Pitfalls: Top Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Prevent Them
  • Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
  • Steering Clear of Financial Disaster: A Guide for Small Business Owners on Common Mistakes and Prevention Strategies
  • Financial Survival for Small Business Owners: Common Mistakes to Avoid and How to Protect Your Business

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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets

By Keith Lewis 20th October 2023

Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.

This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Why are bond yields rising?

There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.

Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.

What are the risks of rising bond yields?

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.

For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.

For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.

What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?

There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.

Investors

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.

Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.

Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.

Businesses

Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.

Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.

Conclusion

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.

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Where are the growth opportunities ?

Well have you looked properly! They are there. Your competitors may have spotted them. Look and you shall find!

Too much noise and not enough action!

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10 Essential Habits to Nurture and Develop as an Entrepreneur

Becoming a successful entrepreneur requires more than just having a great business idea. It involves nurturing certain habits that can help you navigate the challenges and uncertainties of the entrepreneurial journey. In this article, we will explore ten essential habits that aspiring entrepreneurs should cultivate to foster personal and professional growth. By incorporating these habits into your daily routine, you can enhance your entrepreneurial mindset and increase your chances of success.

  1. Embrace Continuous Learning. One of the key habits for nurturing an entrepreneurial spirit is a commitment to continuous learning. Successful entrepreneurs understand that knowledge is power, and they never stop seeking opportunities to expand their expertise. They read books, attend seminars, listen to podcasts, and engage in online courses to stay updated with the latest industry trends and developments. By fostering a thirst for knowledge, you can make informed decisions, adapt to changing circumstances, and position yourself as an expert in your field.
  2. Cultivate Resilience. Entrepreneurship is a challenging endeavour, often marked by setbacks and failures. To navigate through these hurdles, it is crucial to cultivate resilience. Successful entrepreneurs view failures as learning opportunities and bounce back stronger. They develop a positive mindset, practice self-care, and surround themselves with a support network that encourages them during tough times. By embracing resilience, you can overcome obstacles, stay motivated, and persevere on your entrepreneurial journey.
  3. Foster Creativity. Creativity is at the heart of entrepreneurship. To nurture your entrepreneurial spirit, make creativity a daily habit. Allow yourself to think outside the box, challenge conventional wisdom, and explore new ideas. Engage in activities that stimulate your creativity, such as brainstorming sessions, mind mapping, or artistic endeavors. By fostering creativity, you can generate innovative solutions, differentiate yourself from competitors, and seize new opportunities.
  4. Practice Effective Time Management. Time management is crucial for entrepreneurs who juggle multiple responsibilities and tasks. Develop habits such as setting clear goals, prioritising tasks, and utilising productivity tools. Identify your most productive hours and allocate them to the most critical activities. Additionally, delegate tasks and outsource non-essential activities to free up your time for strategic decision-making and growth-oriented pursuits. Effective time management will enhance your productivity, reduce stress, and enable you to make the most of each day.
  5. Build a Strong Network. Successful entrepreneurs understand the power of networking and relationship building. Cultivate the habit of attending industry events, joining professional organisations, and actively engaging in online communities. Surround yourself with like-minded individuals, mentors, and potential partners. By building a strong network, you gain access to valuable resources, receive guidance from experienced entrepreneurs, and open doors to new opportunities.
  6. Develop Effective Communication Skills. Effective communication is vital for entrepreneurs, whether it’s pitching ideas to investors, collaborating with team members, or connecting with customers. Practice active listening, articulate your thoughts clearly, and develop strong interpersonal skills. Embrace different communication channels, including public speaking, writing, and digital platforms. By honing your communication skills, you can convey your vision persuasively, build strong relationships, and inspire others to support your entrepreneurial endeavors.
  7. Embody Adaptability. In today’s fast-paced business environment, adaptability is essential for entrepreneurial success. Develop the habit of embracing change, seeking feedback, and staying flexible in your approach. Be willing to pivot when necessary and adjust your strategies based on market trends and customer feedback. By embodying adaptability, you can stay ahead of the curve, seize emerging opportunities, and navigate through uncertain times with confidence.
  8. Prioritise Self-Reflection. Entrepreneurs often get caught up in the daily grind and neglect self-reflection. However, taking time to evaluate your progress and introspect is crucial for personal and professional growth. Cultivate the habit of journaling, meditation, or mindfulness practices. Reflect on your accomplishments, challenges, and areas for improvement. By prioritising self-reflection, you gain clarity, make better decisions, and develop a deeper understanding of yourself and your entrepreneurial journey.
  9. Embrace Risk-Taking. Entrepreneurship inherently involves taking risks. To nurture your entrepreneurial spirit, develop a habit of calculated risk-taking. Understand the potential rewards and consequences of each decision, conduct thorough research, and trust your instincts. Learn from failures, iterate, and adapt. By embracing calculated risk-taking, you can uncover new opportunities, gain a competitive edge, and propel your entrepreneurial ventures forward.
  10. Practice Resilience. Resilience is the ability to bounce back from setbacks and challenges. As an entrepreneur, it is crucial to develop resilience as a daily habit. Surround yourself with a supportive network, take care of your physical and mental well-being, and maintain a positive mindset. View failures as learning experiences, embrace challenges as opportunities for growth, and persevere in the face of adversity. By practicing resilience, you can overcome obstacles, maintain your focus, and ultimately achieve long-term success.

Nurturing an entrepreneurial spirit requires the cultivation of specific habits that foster personal growth, resilience, and adaptability. By embracing continuous learning, cultivating resilience, fostering creativity, practicing effective time management, building a strong network, developing effective communication skills, embodying adaptability, prioritising self-reflection, embracing risk-taking, and practicing resilience, you can enhance your entrepreneurial mindset and increase your chances of success. Incorporate these habits into your daily routine, and watch yourself grow into a successful and thriving entrepreneur.

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France preparing to fish less in British waters from 2021
Business Have Become Drunk On Cheap Labour From Europe According To Tories

19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control

Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.

Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.

However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.

However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.

The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.

Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.

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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government

With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.

The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.

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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.

It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.

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20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit

A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.

Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.

Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.

12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority

30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production

Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.

23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension

Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.

An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?

The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.

It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.

Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.

If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.

9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events

Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.

By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.

By applying enterprise risk management principles and practices your business can navigate whatever political and economic storms comes your way.

25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely

Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.

Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.

The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.

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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.

Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.

this Parliament is a disgrace

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019

Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.

All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.

20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October

Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.

There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.

The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.

The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.

17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less

There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products

market researcher Kantar

5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September

UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.

If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.

There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.

4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.

Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.

4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?

The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.

Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.

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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.

The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.

1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them

The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.

UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.

1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012

Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.

The global economy is suffering largely due to trade wars and worldwide geopolitical uncertainty.

5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham

JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.

It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.

In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.

1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.

NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.

NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.

It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.

21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!

The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!

Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.

The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one.   The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.

Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU.   The time for compromise has come to an end.

The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.

The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.

15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos

Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.

The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.

The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.

29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein

MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.

The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.

22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes

The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.

Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.

  1. Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
  2. The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
  3. UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.

Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.

Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.

21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops

Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.

21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU

Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.

He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.

19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.

If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.

The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.

14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week

Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.

The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.

Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.

Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!

13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit

Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.

Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.

The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal

European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.

Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.

  • It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
  • It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
  • What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.

Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.

Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.

UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.

If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.

All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.

15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016

The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.

27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal

French construction group Vinci is buying a majority stake in Gatwick airport for 3 billion pounds. It is expecting Gatwick airport to be busier than it is now whether Britain leaves the European Union EU with a deal or without a deal.

Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.

Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?

26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

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