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Business Risks Every Business Leader Should Look Out For and Plan For
Global Housing Market In Focus
In a large hot air ballon that holds people, when the ballon starts popping you don’ necessarily stop the upward trajectory of the ballon. However, the flight will end with a painful bump, especially as the number of holes increase and the size of the holes get bigger due to force of escaping gas. The global housing marketplace is one such deflating ballon.
- Most countries are more than doubling their central bank interest rates. Many millions of people are going to pay more for their mortgage and many of those will see a more than doubling of their monthly mortgage payments, in terms of the interest that is paid not the capital repayment portion.
- General rising cost of living everywhere. Energy to heat a home has become unaffordable for perhaps millions of people across the world. Fuel to power their vehicles has jumped massively and even run out in some countries. Food shortages will sadly see millions starving and many millions more have never experienced such an increase in the price of food to the extent they have to change their food buying habits. Yet in the case of all 3 areas of rising costs, particularly food, we have not yet seen the full impact of food inflation. It has no way near peaked. When food price inflation peaks it does not mean food prices will fall. It means food prices will not go up as fast. Particularly if you are on fixed income, you will never have more money again. You will just slow the rate that you’ll have even less money. This means that when home loan lenders and all lenders will look at your ability to pay back loan. Most will have less ability to pay back loans from now on for the foreseeable future – years not months.
- More important than the rising cost of home buying is the rising unemployment levels across the world. Rising unemployment turbo charges house prices falling. Has people lose their jobs then lose their ability to pay their mortgage. Arrears turn into repossessions. All this takes months, potentially years, but it is what makes the balloon really crash into the ground!
Yes there is increasing demand for housing globally. The demand side of house pricing is not just driven by desire to buy a home. It is affected by the ability to pay for a loan or mortgage. The ability to pay high prices is reducing and this will first reduce house price rises then house prices will decelerate into house prices falling.
The holes in the global housing market are going to rip it apart. In some countries, like China, it could even trigger systemic failure of the financial sector not just in the country that gives birth to the financial sector collapse but will spread globally. In China, for example, we are already seeing the biggest firms in China fail to pay their debts on their loans. The dominoes are teetering in China.
Hopefully in western countries we have learned lessons from mortgage backed securities financial collapse of 2008? Some western countries like Italy have banking system that has still not recovered from the last financial crisis in 2008. It’s only a few dominos more away from the splitting of the Eurozone into the financially destroyed, like Italy and other southern European countries, and the financially just surviving, like Germany and northern European countries.
Whilst the global economic outlook is poor, individual businesses can survive and even prosper in the worst of economic business environments. Will your business be one?
How business leaders can manage the risks from the imminent global recession
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