Uncertainty of international trade expanding or contracting impacting on your business objectives

Sign up for our introduction to international trade risk analysis assessment and management with help of BusinessRiskTV and its risk expert network

Risk Management Toolbox Talk Exploring Barriers To And Opportunities From International Trade

What could cause the opening or closing international trade marketplace? The closing or opening of international trade to your business is perhaps at a recent high level of uncertainty. What elements of international trade threaten your business? What events could open up new opportunities to your business? How do you manage the risks better? Mitigate the threats impacting on your business success. Enhance the beneficial outcomes for your business of international trade.

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Online workshop is an introduction to BusinessRiskTV online risk management service to help business leaders make key business decisions to manage threats and opportunities better.

The opening or closing of international marketplace to all who wish to participate is a moving feast. Changes in threats and opportunities can arise based on sudden economic, geopolitical and technology risks in particular.

Managing risks from international trade may be limited to mitigating threats, or harnessing and enhancing the benefits from international trade. It may be impossible to influence whether risk events occur or not. However, exploring the threats and opportunities may be critical to your business success.

Being the first mover may be just as important. The first businesses to act tend to carry the greatest risks and rewards. If you are to act first you may need help from risk experts to improve your business intelligence and international trade risk knowledge.

Benefits include:

  • Limiting losses
  • Maximising sales profit
  • Grow faster with less uncertainty

Opening the enterprise risk management process of identifying analysing and assessing to international trade risks. Working on overcoming international trade barriers. Exploring a risk profile of a company and international trade risks. Developing an enterprise risk management implementation road map to stronger business resilience and expansion. Starting to understand how to overcome trade barriers including supply chain risk management. Identifying solutions to international trade problems. Opening the door to further risk workshops with an introduction to international trade risk awareness training and enterprise-wide risk management solutions.

Pay below via Paypal to secure your place on our online risk management workshop.

Who should attend?

Business leaders, business owners, executives and senior managers as well as risk professionals.

How to attend online risk management toolbox talk on

Title:

Uncertainty of international trade expanding or contracting
Date:Friday 15th January 2021
Time:5:00 pm – 5:30 pm (GMT)
Speaker:Keith Lewis
Discover new ways to protect and grow your business with BusinessRiskTV

In this this essential risk management toolbox talk we will cover the key international trade risks potentially impacting on your business including:

  • Geopolitical Risks
  • Global Economy Risks
  • Technology Risks

Save the date for an insight into international trade risk management

Northern Powerhouse Risk Management Online Seminars

Pay fee online via secure third party payment service Paypal who do not inform us of your full account details. We will email you the Zoom video conferencing joining instructions no later than 24 hours before the workshop begins.

As a special offer you will be able to redeem your non-member payment of £20 against your first year’s subscription fee for BusinessRiskTV Pro Risk Manager for 12 months. Membership of BusinessRiskTV opens up Pro Risk Manager service benefits include huge discounts off products and services such as further training, online business coaching and advertising costs. BusinessRiskTV membership provides opportunity to continue corporate risk analysis, assessment and management business intelligence as well as option to collaborate with global risk management experts to improve your ability to manage your business better.

Post introductory online risk management toolbox talk on 15th January 2021, members and non-members of BusinessRiskTV will also be given opportunity to collaborate in future online advanced workshop sessions. These sessions will further explore how business leaders around the world can collaborate specifically on overcoming barriers to international trade, both theory and practice. These advanced workshops sessions will aim to increase international trade by participants. Workshop participants will share expert knowledge and practical business development tools. The introductory online fee will be used to reduce the cost of more advanced sessions by participants.

Participants at introductory online risk management toolbox talk can also put themselves forward as international trade risk experts at future more advanced online workshop events to share your expert knowledge and promote their business interests. Get in touch with us if this is you.

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UK Currency Conundrum

How to make the UK currency work in your business favour

USA president Donald Trump plans to add a 10 percent tariff to another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on 1st September. Without a trade deal the global economy will continue to suffer not just China and USA economys. Part of the trade war rhetoric from USA is that China is manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low to gain a competitive advantage.

A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive or to put it another way a weaker yuan makes it cheaper to buy more Chinese goods with foreign currencies.

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Here in the UK the low value of the pound is held up as a bad thing for the UK economy. The airwaves are full of woe about the negative effects of the low value of the pound on the UK. In the USA president Trump moans about the Federal Reserve keeping the value of the dollar too high with too high interest rates. In addition the USA Treasury classed China as a currency manipulator as it claims China manipulates its currency to keep it lower than warranted.

The USA Treasury says China manipulates its currency to keep it lower to improve its international balance of trade and gain unfair competitive advantage in international trade. USA is taking steps in a trade war to lower the value of the dollar and push up value of the yuan.

Why does president Trump and China want lower currency valuation and UK whinges and bellyaches over low value of pound?

BusinessRiskTV

It seems that many people with their own political agenda are happy to talk the UK into a recession it does not need to enter if it looks at the opportunities from selling more overseas from UK. If you are open to more ideas to grow your business faster contact us.

Most of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK benefit from a low value in the pound. Their profits are in dollars and when converted to the pound these companies receive a currency benefit to business performance. Investors including the UKs pension funds receive a low value in currency beneficial online casino bonuses at bonushitlist.

Furthermore the UK is benefiting from more income from more tourists coming to the UK. UK tourism money from overseas visitors will help boost UK economy. Business leaders in UK tourism industry should be going all out to attract visitors to their business. The low value of the pound is giving these UK tourism related businesses a competitive advantage.

Without having to enter a trade war or manipulate its currency the UK has been dealt cards that includes low value of the pound. Instead of encouraging UK business leaders of SMEs and large firms to export export export the UK media and political opportunists talk down UK economy. The result is that the UK is failing to taking advantage of the low value of the pound.

By constantly talking up Brexit uncertainty and ignoring the real threats and opportunities from the current global economic conditions the UK will suffer more pain than it needs to that Germany Japan France Italy and most other countries are suffering too.

Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates to cope with the global economic slowdown. The UK can use the low value of the pound to trade its way out of the global economic slowdown. It could that is if business leaders focused on the real threats and opportunities from the low value of the pound.

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Create and fine tune a dynamic digital marketing strategy

Make your business stand out from your competitors. Target your audience locally and globally.

Like all marketing it’s not an exact science. Your digital marketing needs to be super flexible and rapidly change. Rapid adjustments allows you to respond to rapidly changing customer needs.

Explore new markets. Cost effectively find new income streams to protect and grow business.

Make sure you beat competitors. Make your business findable. Make sure consumers and other businesses choose your business first.

Become more creative innovative and cost effective at finding new customers

We use various tools and techniques to improve digital marketing:

  1. Search Engine Optimisation SEO
  2. Creation of interesting content
  3. Innovative use of social media

There is no silver bullet for digital marketing. If you have a massive digital marketing budget then this could be the solution. Is that sustainable digital marketing? Or is it a quick way to waste of pots of money?

Examples of digital marketing tools and techniques

We use a great number of digital marketing tools and techniques. Which ones we use for you depends on what you need.

The above is not an exhaustive list cause what you need might be unique.   Unique digital marketing solutions is what we develop every day.

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Marketing is one of the most critical aspects of running a business. It is essential for any company, regardless of size or industry, to have a strong marketing strategy in place to attract and retain customers. With the rise of the internet and social media, digital marketing has become increasingly important for businesses to stay competitive in the modern marketplace. In this article, we will explore the concept of Get Visible Marketing and how it can help businesses thrive in today’s digital age.

What is Get Visible Marketing?

Get Visible Marketing is a term used to describe a marketing strategy that focuses on increasing a company’s visibility online. The goal of this strategy is to make it easier for potential customers to find a business when searching online for products or services that the company offers. This type of marketing is essential because it helps businesses stand out from the competition and reach new customers who may not have otherwise known about their business.

One of the key components of Get Visible Marketing is search engine optimisation (SEO). SEO is the process of optimizing a website to rank higher in search engine results pages (SERPs). When someone searches for a keyword related to a business’s products or services, the goal of SEO is to make sure that the company’s website appears at the top of the search results. This is important because most people don’t look beyond the first page of search results, so if a company’s website doesn’t rank well, they may be missing out on potential customers.

Another important aspect of Get Visible Marketing is content marketing. Content marketing is the creation and distribution of valuable, relevant, and engaging content to attract and retain a target audience. The content can be in the form of blog posts, videos, social media posts, infographics, and more. The goal of content marketing is to provide value to potential customers, establish a business as a thought leader in their industry, and ultimately drive sales.

Social media marketing is also an essential component of Get Visible Marketing. Social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn provide businesses with an opportunity to connect with potential customers and promote their products or services. Social media marketing involves creating and sharing content on social media platforms to engage with followers, increase brand awareness, and drive website traffic.

Why is Get Visible Marketing important for businesses?

Get Visible Marketing is crucial for businesses because it helps them stand out in a crowded marketplace. With so many businesses competing for the attention of consumers, it can be challenging to get noticed. By focusing on increasing visibility online, businesses can reach more potential customers and increase their chances of success.

Another reason why Get Visible Marketing is important is that it is cost-effective. Traditional advertising methods like TV and radio ads can be expensive, and the ROI is often difficult to measure. Get Visible Marketing, on the other hand, is relatively inexpensive, and the results can be easily tracked and analysed.

Additionally, Get Visible Marketing is essential because it allows businesses to connect with customers on a more personal level. By creating valuable content and engaging with customers on social media, businesses can establish themselves as thought leaders in their industry and build trust with potential customers. This can lead to increased customer loyalty and higher sales in the long run.

How can businesses implement Get Visible Marketing?

Implementing a Get Visible Marketing strategy requires a well-thought-out plan and consistent effort. Here are some steps that businesses can take to get started:

Define your target audience: The first step in implementing a Get Visible Marketing strategy is to define your target audience. Who are the people that are most likely to buy your products or services? What are their interests, pain points, and needs? By understanding your target audience, you can create content that is relevant and engaging to them.

Conduct keyword research: Keyword research is essential for SEO. By researching the keywords that your target audience is searching for, you can optimise your website and content to rank higher in search engine results pages. Tools like Google Keyword Planner can help you identify the keywords that are most relevant to your business.

Create valuable content: Content marketing is a critical component of Get Visible Marketing. By creating valuable content that educates, entertains, or solves a problem for your target audience, you can attract potential customers to your website. Make sure your content is well-written, engaging, and optimised for SEO.

Optimise your website: SEO is crucial for Get Visible Marketing. Make sure your website is optimized for the keywords that your target audience is searching for. This includes optimising your website’s meta tags, URLs, and content. You should also ensure that your website is mobile-friendly, as more and more people are using mobile devices to search the internet.

Engage with your audience on social media: Social media is an essential component of Get Visible Marketing. Create social media accounts for your business on platforms like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram, and post regularly to engage with your followers. Use social media to promote your content, share news about your business, and connect with potential customers.

Track and analyse your results: Finally, it’s essential to track and analyse your results. Use tools like Google Analytics to monitor your website traffic and track your social media engagement. This will help you identify what’s working and what’s not, so you can adjust your strategy accordingly.

Get Visible Marketing is a powerful strategy for businesses looking to increase their visibility online. By focusing on SEO, content marketing, social media marketing, and other tactics, businesses can attract more potential customers and establish themselves as thought leaders in their industry. However, implementing a successful Get Visible Marketing strategy requires a well-thought-out plan and consistent effort. By defining your target audience, conducting keyword research, creating valuable content, optimising your website, engaging with your audience on social media, and tracking your results, you can increase your chances of success in today’s digital age.

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Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports

Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.

Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.

Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business

Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.

UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not

Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.

Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.

UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas

This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.

Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.

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Small Business Financial Mistakes

Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

Small business owners often make financial mistakes that can have serious consequences for the success of their company. Here are some of the most common financial mistakes made by small business owners, and advice on how to prevent them:

  1. Not keeping accurate financial records: Without accurate financial records, it can be difficult for small business owners to make informed decisions about the financial health of their company. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should establish a system for keeping accurate financial records, such as using accounting software or hiring a bookkeeper.
  2. Not having a budget: A budget is an essential tool for small business owners, as it helps them to plan for expenses and manage cash flow. Without a budget, small business owners may overspend and find themselves in financial trouble. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should create a budget and stick to it.
  3. Not having enough working capital: Working capital is the amount of money a business has available to cover its short-term expenses. Without enough working capital, small business owners may struggle to pay bills and meet other financial obligations. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should maintain a healthy level of working capital by managing expenses and seeking financing when necessary.
  4. Not having adequate insurance: Insurance is an important tool for small business owners, as it helps protect their company against potential financial losses. Without adequate insurance, small business owners may find themselves facing financial ruin in the event of a disaster or other unexpected event. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should review their insurance needs and purchase the appropriate policies.
  5. Not diversifying investments: Small business owners often invest a significant portion of their assets in their own company, which can be risky. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should diversify their investments to spread risk.
  6. Not seeking professional advice: Small business owners often make financial decisions without seeking the advice of a professional. This can lead to costly mistakes. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should seek the advice of a financial advisor or accountant before making important financial decisions.

By avoiding these common financial mistakes, small business owners can increase the chances of success for their company.

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Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

More small business risk management articles and videos

  • Avoiding Financial Pitfalls: Top Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Prevent Them
  • Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
  • Steering Clear of Financial Disaster: A Guide for Small Business Owners on Common Mistakes and Prevention Strategies
  • Financial Survival for Small Business Owners: Common Mistakes to Avoid and How to Protect Your Business

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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets

By Keith Lewis 20th October 2023

Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.

This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Why are bond yields rising?

There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.

Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.

What are the risks of rising bond yields?

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.

For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.

For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.

What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?

There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.

Investors

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.

Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.

Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.

Businesses

Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.

Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.

Conclusion

Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.

Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.

I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.

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France preparing to fish less in British waters from 2021
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19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control

Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.

Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.

However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.

However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.

The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.

Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.

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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government

With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.

The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.

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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.

It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.

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20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit

A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.

Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.

Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.

12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority

30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production

Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.

23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension

Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.

An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?

The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.

It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.

Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.

If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.

9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events

Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.

By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.

By applying enterprise risk management principles and practices your business can navigate whatever political and economic storms comes your way.

25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely

Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.

Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.

The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.

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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.

Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.

this Parliament is a disgrace

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019

Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.

All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.

Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.

20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October

Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.

There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.

The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.

The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.

17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less

There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products

market researcher Kantar

5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September

UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.

If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.

There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.

4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.

Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.

4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?

The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.

Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.

BusinessRiskTV

The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.

The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.

1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them

The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.

UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.

1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012

Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.

The global economy is suffering largely due to trade wars and worldwide geopolitical uncertainty.

5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham

JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.

It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.

In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.

1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.

NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.

NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.

It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.

21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!

The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!

Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.

The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one.   The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.

Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU.   The time for compromise has come to an end.

The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.

The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.

15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos

Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.

The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.

The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.

29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein

MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.

The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.

22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes

The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.

Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.

  1. Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
  2. The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
  3. UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.

Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.

Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.

21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops

Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.

21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU

Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.

He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.

19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.

If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.

The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.

14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week

Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.

The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.

Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.

Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!

13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit

Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.

Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.

The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal

European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.

Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.

  • It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
  • It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
  • What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.

Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.

Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.

UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.

If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.

All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.

15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016

The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.

27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal

French construction group Vinci is buying a majority stake in Gatwick airport for 3 billion pounds. It is expecting Gatwick airport to be busier than it is now whether Britain leaves the European Union EU with a deal or without a deal.

Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.

Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?

26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

BusinessRiskTV

Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

BusinessRiskTV

Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

BusinessRiskTV

9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

BusinessRiskTV

The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

BusinessRiskTV

26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

Construction Report

Manufacturing Report

The Brexit result was a shock to everybody?

Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.

The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU.   Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds.   Anything is possible.

When anything is possible there is increased risk

Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.

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