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UK Economy Weak Start To 2018 Due To Weather Not Economic Climate

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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.

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Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney

Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.

In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.

With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.

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Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.

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Where is the automotive industry going

New Automotive Industry Entrants and Cross Sector Collaboration Will Bring New Threats and Opportunities

The 4th industrial revolution is about to turn the automotive industry upside down  rip up traditional business models and will come out the other side better and stronger but very different.

Many new features in cars and other vehicles that took a decade to normalise across the industry will need to be incorporated in a few short years. The automotive industry as always evolved but a revolution is under way.

  • Those who don’t keep up will be squashed to death!
  • Those that get on the bus will see a very different road ahead.
  • Those that resist change will cease to exist, and those that embrace change may or may not benefit from the changes

The pace of change within components that do or could go into vehicles is fast but the pace in which the automotive industry is changing is breath-taking, and its accelerating!

The world’s auto industry will have more customers demands to meet, but what are they going to deliver and when? Automated vehicles powered by renewable energy is nothing new. How quickly can society keep up with what is possible on the roads? Will automotive industry take to the skies!   Will we get into autonomous vehicles AV and literally fly to work whilst playing computer games! Will the automobile get swallowed up whole by Google Apple and Sony?

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3rd October 2018 GM and Honda New Project

General Motors and Honda have announced a partnership to develop and build an autonomous multi use vehicle together.

13th June 2018 VW Fined 1 Billion Euros By German Prosecutors

Volkswagen has been fined by German prosecutors for diesel emissions scandal. VW has already been fined by other countries for cheating the tests for diesel emissions. VW has agreed to pay more than 4 billion dollars to resolve criminal and civil penalties for installing illegal software in diesel engines to cheat USA anti pollution tests.


15th March 2018 Auto Parts Maker New Strategic Direction

Automotive parts supplier Magna International Inc will invest $200 million in ride-hailing firm Lyft. Their new partnership will develop and manufacture self driving cars.

20th February 2018 Ford Aims To Set Up German Bank To Offset Any Brexit Risk

Ford wants to set up a bank in Germany in late 2018 and has applied for a banking licence as part of Ford’s strategy to mitigate any risk from Britain leaving the European Union after the Brexit vote in June 2016.

Ford Credit Europe will remain headquartered in Britain and the new bank plans will not result in job losses or significant changes to where employees are based.

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Your Business Forecast To Grow Faster Than The CBI Thinks

Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports

Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.

Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.

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Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business

Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.

UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not

Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.

Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.

UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas

This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.

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Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.

If you want to explore ways to sell more and export more from the UK then click here – and enter code UK EXPORTER when you complete form. Alternatively, complete the form below and enter same code.

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27th February 2018 Small Medium Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3-Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3 year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

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21st November 2018 Trade Disputes and Higher Central Bank Interest Rates Are Slowing Global Economy

On the positive side there are currently no signs of a sharp economic downturn according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.

The OECD is currently forecasting that global growth would slow from 3.7 percent this year to 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020. It had previously projected 3.7 percent for 2019.

13th November 2018 Global Growth Is Slowing

According to the International Monetary Fund IMF a number of the bigger economies are slowing and they could suddenly contract should there be a major risk event.

Key global growth risk factors include

  • USA China trade war could increase costs globally.
  • Higher energy costs. Oil prices have increased by more than 60 percent in two years.
  • Certain higher USA interest rates are on their way but how will this impact on global consumption?
  • Higher USA interest rates will strengthen the dollar the worlds currency of choice. How will a significant strengthening impact on global growth.
  • Parts of the world are still trying to recover from the global financial crisis including Italys banks and sovereign debt. A collapse of the banking system in Italy would reverberate around the world. Greece can be bailed out Italy can not.

The IMF forecasts global growth for 2018 to 2019 to remain at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent but the growth outlook for a number of major economies has been marked down.

17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent

Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.

16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.

Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.

14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating

Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.

Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.

Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.

27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future

Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.

Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.

Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.

If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses.   Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.

7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster

The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.

2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018

Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.

If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:

  • America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy.   When America grows so does the rest of the world.   In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
  • Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier.   Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
  • Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
  • Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead.   China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption.   Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
  • The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
  • The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018.   Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
  • Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.

We’ll look back on 2018 as the real start of the 4th Industrial Revolution as many new developments will turn into fast growing businesses and global productivity will start to increase overcoming the bad old days of doing business.

8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook

Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.

A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.

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Brexit Risk Watch

What does Brexit mean for the UK Europe and Globally?

BusinessRiskTV presents the Brexit Risk Watch to identify assess and provide recommendations on the threats and opportunities to business from the Brexit vote in June 2016.

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Brexit Guide Brexit Business Risk Assessment Analysis News and Opinions

Read our latest analysis on the consequences of Brexit. What is your Brexit risk assessment? How do you seize the opportunities a Brexit will present to your business? How do you mitigate the threats from Brexit? Only a careful, positive risk management approach will ensure that Brexit will work well for everybody in the UK.

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26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.

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The Brexit result was a shock to everybody?

Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.

The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU.   Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds.   Anything is possible.

When anything is possible there is increased risk

Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.

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