UK Economy Weak Start To 2018 Due To Weather Not Economic Climate

Latest Economic News For UK

UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.

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Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney

Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.

In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.

With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.

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Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.

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Financial Services Jobs At Risk Of Automation

The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit

Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.

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Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job

No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!

Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.

However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!

FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be

  • less emotional
  • more reliable and
  • after a few years significantly cheaper

How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!

Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.

  • Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
  • Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
  • C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
  • Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
  • Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!

Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!

However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.

Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk

  • Mortgage advice
  • Financial and investment advice
  • Insurance advice
  • Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!

Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!

There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!

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Excess Steel Capacity Building Trade Wars

Overproduction of steel and steel products is building pressure for global trade wars between USA China EU and the rest of the world.

Excess steel capacity should be dealt with in a global forum for the problem to avoid an escalation of trade disputes according to OECD following USAs plans to introduce import tariffs on steel.

Leaders of G20 advanced economic countries set up the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity in September 2016 to deal with the problem and charged the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD to facilitate its work.

Biggest Most Developed Countries Including G20 Unemployment Back To Pre-Financial Crisis Levels

Joblessness across 35 OECD countries fell to 5.6 percent in October 2017 down from a peak of 8.5 percent in 2010.

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Higher UK Interest Rates Are Coming So Fill Your Boots With Cheap Money Now

UK Interest Rate Predictions

Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017

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If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.

17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent

UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.

3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.

Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.

If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest

Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!

UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.

Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.

Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.

Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.

Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.

Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.

The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.

So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.

The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.

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Finding a better job may not mean you have to leave your present employer. An existing employer may have new job opportunities for you if you move side ways as well as up. Moving sideways for same pay may give you the opportunity in near future to lift your career to a new level.

Assuming you are leaving to find a better job BusinessRiskTV can help your career breakthrough to better pay and a more rewarding opportunity.

Find a better job

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Ever feel trapped in your job? Want to feel more wanted? If you have the aptitude and a good work ethic there are many unfilled job vacancies in the UK.

However great opportunities rarely simply fall into your lap. You have to graft at career development to speed up the process and become a success.

Developing your career faster means you will get more money as a by product of your success, so its not being greedy wanting more money. It is part and parcel of being more successful in your career development.

In the UK we tend to be a bit more reserved. Talking about wanting a better paid job and career progression may be frowned upon You’re too big for your own boots but it is okay to moan about being skint. Not having enough money to do the things you want in life can normally only be solved by looking for a better job unless you win the lottery!

If you want a better job you’re going to have to work hard at finding a better job. BusinessRiskTV can assist though you will still need to put in the time but if you do then you will get a better job. It is the law of supply and demand. If you have the talent then you’re dream job is out there so get grafting now!

However better paying jobs aren’t always better jobs. Sometimes better paying jobs are the jobs most people don’t want to do and thats why you get premium pay level. Make sure you know what’s out there and then work hard at putting yourself in the best position to secure your dream job.

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6th March 2019 OECD Cut Forecasts Global Economy In 2019 And 2020

The OECD has already downgraded global economic growth forecasts in November 2018.

International trade disputes around the world and uncertainty over Brexit will reduce world trading and lower business growth according to OECD.

The Organisation for Economic CoOperation and Development OECD forecasts world economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2019 and 3.4 percent in 2020.

25th February 2019 Hopes Rise For More Global Trade

President Trump has decided to delay raising tariffs on Chinese goods. This has encouraged a brighter outlook on global trade. Hopes are rising that America and China will agree a trade deal which will support an increase in global trade.

9th January 2019 World Bank Forecasting 2.9 Percent Global Economic Growth For 2019

The World Banks assessment of global risks in 2019 has led it to conclude the global economy will continue to slow in 2019 and 2020. Global economic growth in 2020 has been pitched at 2.8 percent.

Risk factors include

  • Trade war between China and USA
  • Brexit risk damaging UK growth and European Union EU growth
  • Some emerging markets may fail to fulfil potential growth opportunities

2nd January 2019 Slower Global Economic Growth In 2019

Global economic growth will slow if the hangover from 2018 continues in 2019.

  • Political risks on the downside threaten the fluidity of global trade which will slow economic growth. Trade tensions between USA and China and USA and Europe top the list of political risks in 2019.
  • Less money sloshing about in the global economy will slow global economic growth. Examples include the Eurozone closing the cash flow taps with the end of quantitative easing QE by European Central Bank ECB. In addition and perhaps more significantly the Federal Reserve in USA seem intent on continuing to increase interest rates in America which will make money a lot more expensive thus negatively impacting on economic growth in USA.
  • Businesses across the globe will find it harder to make a profit in 2019 and this will reduce sovereign state income from taxation and reduce corporate free money available for investment in future which will hit global economic growth.

On the upside could be lower energy costs from the continued oversupply of oil to the marketplace suppressing the price of oil and products made from oil.

In addition if political risks ease or reverse the global economy could actually receive a boost. For example there are indications that China is prepared to do a deal with USA. If this happens then 2019 could become a lot more positive.


14th December 2018 Weak China and Europe Economic Data Reported

Worries of continuing global economic slowdown spread to stock markets around the world.

The Euro zone economy is expanding at slowest pace in over four years due to global trade restrictions and particularly poor economic performance in France.

  • Germanys private sector expansion slowed to a four year low
  • China  November retail sales grew at the weakest pace since 2003 and industrial output rose the least in nearly three years due to trade dispute with USA.

The European Union EU has not thrown UK Prime Minister a bone to help her get her Brexit deal through UK parliament. This indicates it is highly likely she will have to pivot but to what?

21st November 2018 Trade Disputes and Higher Central Bank Interest Rates Are Slowing Global Economy

On the positive side there are currently no signs of a sharp economic downturn according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD.

The OECD is currently forecasting that global growth would slow from 3.7 percent this year to 3.5 percent in 2019 and 2020. It had previously projected 3.7 percent for 2019.

13th November 2018 Global Growth Is Slowing

According to the International Monetary Fund IMF a number of the bigger economies are slowing and they could suddenly contract should there be a major risk event.

Key global growth risk factors include

  • USA China trade war could increase costs globally.
  • Higher energy costs. Oil prices have increased by more than 60 percent in two years.
  • Certain higher USA interest rates are on their way but how will this impact on global consumption?
  • Higher USA interest rates will strengthen the dollar the worlds currency of choice. How will a significant strengthening impact on global growth.
  • Parts of the world are still trying to recover from the global financial crisis including Italys banks and sovereign debt. A collapse of the banking system in Italy would reverberate around the world. Greece can be bailed out Italy can not.

The IMF forecasts global growth for 2018 to 2019 to remain at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent but the growth outlook for a number of major economies has been marked down.


17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent

Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.

16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.

Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.

14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating

Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.

Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.

Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.

27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future

Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.

Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.

Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.

If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses.   Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.

7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster

The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.

2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018

Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.

If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:

  • America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy.   When America grows so does the rest of the world.   In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
  • Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier.   Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
  • Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
  • Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead.   China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption.   Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
  • The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
  • The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018.   Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
  • Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.

We’ll look back on 2018 as the real start of the 4th Industrial Revolution as many new developments will turn into fast growing businesses and global productivity will start to increase overcoming the bad old days of doing business.

8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook

Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.

A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.

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Productivity In The Workplace

How To Improve Productivity In The Workplace In UK

German workers have the same output in 4 days that it takes UK workers 5 days to produce, according to the UK Chancellor Philip Hammond in is Autumn Statement on the UK performance to date.

For the UK to sustainably increase wages meet the needs of an aging population and develop business growth it needs to increase productivity by 25 percent just to match the productivity of German workers in recent times.

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Improving Productivity In The Workplace

Increasing output for every hour of input

To improve productivity, the UK needs to produce more from every effort put into a business or enterprise. The UK government needs to play its part including boosting internet broadband availability and speeds, improving road rail and air transportation, as well as increase spending on other infrastructure improvements. However every business needs to work out what it needs to do to get more output from the same resources.

Poor sales growth domestically and internationally, reliance on cheap particularly foreign workers(most of UKs new jobs created over recent year have been foreign workers), and a lack of investment in training of employees is a big part of the UK Plcs poor productivity. Another significant part is the lack of engagement of existing assets the existing workforce. Business enterprise leaders have not involved the whole workforce in business decision-making. Every business has talented workers who know how to solve business problems and improve productivity but business leaders have not taken a holistic approach to productivity improvement.Where a business has poor productivity it is because not everyone is on the some bus to achieve a common destination. The solution is to engage the workforce more in business decision making process.

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How do you improve your business productivity

The public sector also needs to do more with less, in an age of austerity. The UK needs to somehow get more out of every available resource invested in public services.

BusinessRiskTV will help you get everyone on the same bus!

BusinessRiskTV will use business enterprise risk management tools and techniques to engage your workforce to improve business productivity and overall performance.

How efficient is your business?

Have your investments in people and other assets produced as much as possible? Could you produce more with your existing resources? Could you more cleverly focus your money and time on efforts that will bring greater corporate and individual rewards?

Or are you working hard at working hard

Few business leaders and their employees don’t work hard. Hard work is required, but if you are all working hard with insignificant improvement then maybe you should ask yourself if there might be another way to make business decisions?

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Want your business to be as productive as possible?   Pick up business tips on how to get the most out of your existing resources from your peers and from business management experts in your country, industry or business focus.

The time for looking for cost savings has passed. It is now time to look for ways to increase value produced by your business.

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  • Is your business a dead-fish that you are blaming on being in a stagnant pool, when there is plenty of life in your area of expertise but you just can’t find business growth?
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We will help you improve effective communication across your organisation to help all employees to perform better.

Develop a more positive risk management culture to increase productivity.

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UK Skills Shortage News

Many jobs in the UK go unfilled due to a skills shortage. There is a widening skills crisis across the UK.

Some jobs are more in demand than others. Many businesses need people to fill their skills gap to grow faster to meet demand for their products and services.   The skills gap is holding many firms back. It is impacting on the UK’s ability to be competitive in the global marketplace. UK productivity is threatened by skills gap.

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City and Guilds Survey reported in June 2018 that 9 out 10 UK employers are struggling to fill skills gap. It is the biggest threat to businesses in UK. The problem is getting worse not better.

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The UK is struggling to provide the right quantity and quality of labour skills to satisfy the market. Don’t let your business get held back due to the cost of recruitment or the lack of suitable candidates.

The annual 2016 Confederation of British Industry CBI survey July has found that 69 percent of employers surveyed were concerned about not being able to find enough highly-skilled staff. The problem is worse in 2016 than it was in 2015.

Whilst it is crucially important for business leaders to invest in staff for a sustainable business model it is also important to use recruitment tools which will find the best job candidates quickly and as cheaply as possible.

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Brexit Risk Watch

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BusinessRiskTV presents the Brexit Risk Watch to identify assess and provide recommendations on the threats and opportunities to business from the Brexit vote in June 2016.

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15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos

Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.

The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.

The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.

29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein

MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.

The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.

22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes

The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.

Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.

  1. Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
  2. The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
  3. UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.

Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.

Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.

21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops

Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.

21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU

Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.

He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.

19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again

Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.

If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.

The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.

14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week

Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.

The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.

Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.

Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!

13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit

Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.

Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.

The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal

European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.

Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.

  • It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
  • It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
  • What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.

Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.

Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.

UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.

If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.

All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.

15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016

The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.

UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.

27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal

French construction group Vinci is buying a majority stake in Gatwick airport for 3 billion pounds. It is expecting Gatwick airport to be busier than it is now whether Britain leaves the European Union EU with a deal or without a deal.

Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.

Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?

26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU

The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.

Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?

Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.

  • Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
  • Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
  • Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?

The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.

  1. Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
  2. Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
  3. Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
  4. Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?

Maybe UK political uncertainty has not yet peaked!

25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes

  • Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
  • Continued cooperation on national security
  • End to free movement

The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.

The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include

  • No deal Brexit where the UK trades on World Trade Organisation WTO terms
  • UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
  • Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
  • Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.

No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.

  • If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
  • If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
  • In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.

The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.

19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry

German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.

The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.

Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.

14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster

According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.

Next Plc chief executive Simon Wolfson was speaking to BBCs Andrew Marr when he concluded that although a no deal Brexit would not be the ideal outcome it would not be a disaster for the UK economy. He did encourage all UK business leaders to get prepared for a no deal Brexit. He feels that such preparations would help the UK government secure a good deal with the European Union EU.

19th July 2018 International Monetary Fund IMF Reports On Effect Of Brexit On Europe

A no deal Brexit could reduce the whole European Unions EU economic growth by 1.5 percent.

A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.

A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.

9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit

David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.

29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows

Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.

EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.

Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.

The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.

The UK Department for Trade and Industry DTI has set up 14 trade working groups covering 21 countries to scope the UKs overseas trading deals and strengthen ties with key trading partners.

13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy

Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.

Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.

11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?

Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.

Read EYs June 2018 report on which country was the most attractive to overseas investors in 2017

23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit

The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.

Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.

4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton

Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van.   This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.

19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU

Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.

The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.

In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.

EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week.   If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.

The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.

27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High

Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.

National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months.   SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.

The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018

26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations

17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit

Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit.   Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past.   One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.

Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.

16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible

It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief  Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.

Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.

Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.

8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated

The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.

It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.

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