UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Financial and investment advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
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Next Financial Crisis Will Come Cause Have Not Learnt Lesson From 2008 Financial Crisis
Overproduction of steel and steel products is building pressure for global trade wars between USAChinaEU and the rest of the world.
Excess steel capacity should be dealt with in a global forum for the problem to avoid an escalation of trade disputes according to OECD following USAs plans to introduce import tariffs on steel.
Leaders of G20 advanced economic countries set up the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity in September 2016 to deal with the problem and charged the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD to facilitate its work.
Biggest Most Developed Countries Including G20 Unemployment Back To Pre-Financial Crisis Levels
Joblessness across 35 OECD countries fell to 5.6 percent in October 2017 down from a peak of 8.5 percent in 2010.
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Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017
If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.
17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent
UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.
Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.
If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest
Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!
UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.
Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.
Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.
Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.
Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.
Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.
The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.
So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.
The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.
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Finding a better job may not mean you have to leave your present employer. An existing employer may have new job opportunities for you if you move side ways as well as up. Moving sideways for same pay may give you the opportunity in near future to lift your career to a new level.
Assuming you are leaving to find a better job BusinessRiskTV can help your career breakthrough to better pay and a more rewarding opportunity.
Find a better job
Many great companies work with BusinessRiskTV to find solutions to their business problems. One problem for employers is the growing skills gap. Many businesses do not have enough of the right skilled workforce to do what they need to do.
Develop the career you want not the one you have fallen into
Ever feel trapped in your job? Want to feel more wanted? If you have the aptitude and a good work ethic there are many unfilled job vacancies in the UK.
However great opportunities rarely simply fall into your lap. You have to graft at career development to speed up the process and become a success.
Developing your career faster means you will get more money as a by product of your success, so its not being greedy wanting more money. It is part and parcel of being more successful in your career development.
In the UK we tend to be a bit more reserved. Talking about wanting a better paid job and career progression may be frowned upon You’re too big for your own boots but it is okay to moan about being skint. Not having enough money to do the things you want in life can normally only be solved by looking for a better job unless you win the lottery!
If you want a better job you’re going to have to work hard at finding a better job. BusinessRiskTV can assist though you will still need to put in the time but if you do then you will get a better job. It is the law of supply and demand. If you have the talent then you’re dream job is out there so get grafting now!
However better paying jobs aren’t always better jobs. Sometimes better paying jobs are the jobs most people don’t want to do and thats why you get premium pay level. Make sure you know what’s out there and then work hard at putting yourself in the best position to secure your dream job.
To get help to get to the top join female networking groups or other business networks to get to where you want to be sooner. UK female entrepreneurs provide tips advice and support to other women who want to get to the top in their trade or profession.
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17th April 2018 Global Economic Growth 3.5 Percent
Institute of International Finance IIF forecasting faster global economic growth. IIF increased global economic growth for 2018 to 3.5 percent. Much of the increase in growth down to USA tax cuts. These will not only power USA growth but global growth.
16th March 2018 Global Growth Strongest In 7 Years
According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD global economic growth is growing faster than at any other time in last 7 years. It is forecasting economic growth at 3.9 percent for 2018.
Threats to global economic growth include growing trade war between most other countries and USA as well as other geopolitical issues like Russia v EU / UK, North Korea and the ever present tensions in Middle East.
14th March 2018 A Credit Rating Agency Fitch Has Suggested Global Economic Growth Is Strong and Accelerating
Global economic growth is rising faster now than it has for around a decade.
Unemployment is falling, money is still cheap in most parts of the world and corporate investment is strong.
Fitch is forecasting global economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2018 and 3.2 percent in 2019. Last year it was 3.2 percent according to Fitch.
27th February 2018 You Should Be Optimistic About Your Future
Global growth prospects for 2018-19 are improving and accelerating. Most parts of the world are looking to a better 2018 than 2017 in terms of economic growth and 2017 was one of the best year’s for growth in close to a decade.
Not every business will take advantage of increasing global economic growth, just like not all businesses went bust during the financial crisis starting in 2007 to 2008. The rising tide of business opportunities creates the environment for your business to grow much faster in 2018.
Corporate business leaders in UK who look for new business development opportunities will find them.
If you do not think you have time to explore business growth opportunities, you may get the opportunity to reflect at your leisure after your business collapses. Those companies that fail to grow may find they contract or even fail to survive.
7th February 2018 International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Says Global Economy Growing Faster
The IMF’s chief economist is reported as saying that world economic fundamentals are strong. There is increased trading and more business investment. As a result major economies are the world are growing faster than expected. He sees very broad-based global growth.
2nd February 2018 BusinessRiskTV Forecasts The Economic Forecasts Will Get Global Growth Wrong For 2018
Many economists are forecasting around the 4 percent mark for global economic growth in 2018. BusinessRiskTV forecasts this will underplay the global economic boom that is set to happen in 2018.
If a major global event occurs like World War 111 then growth will be slower but if World War 3 happens we will not care about economic forecasts any longer! Such geopolitical risk events aside we can look around the world and see great news unfolding:
America is feeding in huge corporate and personal tax cuts into its economy. When America grows so does the rest of the world. In addition, low unemployment and faster wage increases in USA will turbo-charge the USA economy in 2018.
Eurozone is experiencing is fastest growth period in around a decade and this will continue, but accelerate in 2018, as people find jobs and property values start to rise making people in the Eurozone feel wealthier. Manufacturing is returning to countries in Eurozone that may have once have forgotten how to make things.
Africa is a sleeping giant that will fail to get its act together in 2018 but will improve on recent economic performance.
Asia Pacific is set to expand faster with the likes of India in particular racing ahead. China will continue to find more and more people jobs in 2018 and will lift more people out of poverty further increasing demand for domestic and international consumption. Japan will finally put decades of deflation behind it and new technology will begin to overcome demographic time-bomb to the benefit of Japanese economy.
The Americas, and Brazil in particular, was once a fast growing area of the globe. South American expenditure will be healthier in 2018 and help develop continental and global growth faster than 2017.
The UK is constantly put down by people in the UK but the UK economy will continue to surprise most UK economists trying to subvert Brexit and grow faster than 2 percent in 2018. Low unemployment, faster wage growth due to skills shortages and rising housing prices will encourage UK consumers to spend more and manufacturing and services sectors will push UK growth faster supported by a return of the construction sector.
Middle Eastern countries will benefit from rising oil prices and rebuilding of some physically damaged countries.
8th January 2018 Global Economy Forecasts: Increasingly More Positive Business Outlook
Previously poorly performing eurozone helping to drive more upbeat global economic outlook.
A survey for Sentix index indicated eurozone business leader confidence is at its highest level since August 2007. The global economy in all regions is looking more positive.
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How To Improve Productivity In The Workplace In UK
German workers have the same output in 4 days that it takes UK workers 5 days to produce, according to the UK Chancellor Philip Hammond in is Autumn Statement on the UK performance to date.
For the UK to sustainably increase wages meet the needs of an aging population and develop business growth it needs to increase productivity by 25 percent just to match the productivity of German workers in recent times.
Increasing output for every hour of input
To improve productivity, the UK needs to produce more from every effort put into a business or enterprise. The UK government needs to play its part including boosting internet broadband availability and speeds, improving road rail and air transportation, as well as increase spending on other infrastructure improvements. However every business needs to work out what it needs to do to get more output from the same resources.
Poor sales growth domestically and internationally, reliance on cheap particularly foreign workers(most of UKs new jobs created over recent year have been foreign workers), and a lack of investment in training of employees is a big part of the UK Plcs poor productivity. Another significant part is the lack of engagement of existing assets the existing workforce. Business enterprise leaders have not involved the whole workforce in business decision-making. Every business has talented workers who know how to solve business problems and improve productivity but business leaders have not taken a holistic approach to productivity improvement.Where a business has poor productivity it is because not everyone is on the some bus to achieve a common destination. The solution is to engage the workforce more in business decision making process.
The public sector also needs to do more with less, in an age of austerity. The UK needs to somehow get more out of every available resource invested in public services.
BusinessRiskTV will help you get everyone on the same bus!
BusinessRiskTV will use business enterprise risk management tools and techniques to engage your workforce to improve business productivity and overall performance.
How efficient is your business?
Have your investments in people and other assets produced as much as possible? Could you produce more with your existing resources? Could you more cleverly focus your money and time on efforts that will bring greater corporate and individual rewards?
Or are you working hard at working hard
Few business leaders and their employees don’t work hard. Hard work is required, but if you are all working hard with insignificant improvement then maybe you should ask yourself if there might be another way to make business decisions?
Effective Ways to Enhance Workplace Productivity
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Want your business to be as productive as possible? Pick up business tips on how to get the most out of your existing resources from your peers and from business management experts in your country, industry or business focus.
The time for looking for cost savings has passed. It is now time to look for ways to increase value produced by your business.
Is your business a Zombie business. Not alive just existing?
Is your business a dead-fish that you are blaming on being in a stagnant pool, when there is plenty of life in your area of expertise but you just can’t find business growth?
Do you need practical steps you can take today or tomorrow that will increase your business opportunities?
How can you improve the workplace culture without increasing wages immediately?
How can you motivate your employees to be more productive and therefore produce a more profitable workplace?
Our approach to improving productivity in the workplace is not to just talk about improvement but to help create business growth
We will help you improve effective communication across your organisation to help all employees to perform better.
Develop a more positive risk management culture to increase productivity.
BusinessRiskTV Improving Business Enterprise Productivity
Many jobs in the UK go unfilled due to a skills shortage. There is a widening skills crisis across the UK.
Some jobs are more in demand than others. Many businesses need people to fill their skills gap to grow faster to meet demand for their products and services. The skills gap is holding many firms back. It is impacting on the UK’s ability to be competitive in the global marketplace. UK productivity is threatened by skills gap.
City and Guilds Survey reported in June 2018 that 9 out 10 UK employers are struggling to fill skills gap. It is the biggest threat to businesses in UK. The problem is getting worse not better.
The annual 2016 Confederation of British Industry CBI survey July has found that 69 percent of employers surveyed were concerned about not being able to find enough highly-skilled staff. The problem is worse in 2016 than it was in 2015.
Whilst it is crucially important for business leaders to invest in staff for a sustainable business model it is also important to use recruitment tools which will find the best job candidates quickly and as cheaply as possible.
What does Brexit mean for the UK Europe and Globally?
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19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry
German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.
The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.
Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that banking, insurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
It may end up for quite a lot of them being a bit less dramatic that it might appear Jeremy Browne told a press briefing in London.
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What Are The Real Risks To Financial Services Industry In UK From Brexit?
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Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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