Bitcoin could ironically be the safe haven in 2024 storm?
Bitwise Breaks the Bank: $200 Million Seed Investment Signals Bitcoin ETF Dawn
December 31, 2023 | Keith Lewis – In a move that sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, Bitwise Asset Management, a leading player in the digital asset space, has secured a staggering $200 million seed investment for its spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This landmark development not only validates Bitcoin’s growing institutional acceptance but also paints a tantalising picture for its price trajectory in 2024, potentially fuelled by a wave of new investors entering the market.
The hefty seed investment, spearheaded by prominent venture capital firms Paradigm and Sequoia Capital, speaks volumes about the confidence these titans of the tech world have in Bitwise’s ETF endeavour. While numerous attempts at securing a US-based Bitcoin ETF have met with regulatory hurdles, Bitwise’s meticulous adherence to SEC guidelines and its focus on a physically-backed ETF, holding actual Bitcoin in its treasury, could be the key to unlocking this long-awaited access point for investors.
Larry Fink’s “New Gold” Prophecy Rings True
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent pronouncement of Bitcoin as “one of the best inventions in finance” and “the new gold” adds further fuel to the fire. His endorsement, representing trillions of dollars under BlackRock’s management, signifies a crucial shift in institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin, paving the way for a potential stampede towards the digital asset once regulatory barriers crumble.
Implications for Bitcoin’s 2024 Price:
The potential approval of Bitwise’s ETF in 2024 could unleash a cascade of positive effects for Bitcoin’s price:
Increased Liquidity: An ETF would provide a readily available and convenient avenue for institutional investors to invest in Bitcoin, significantly boosting its liquidity and potentially reducing price volatility.
Enhanced Accessibility: Retail investors, previously hesitant due to the complexities of directly purchasing and storing Bitcoin, would gain a familiar and trusted entry point through their brokerage accounts.
Boosted Investor Confidence: Regulatory approval would serve as a major vote of confidence from the SEC, further legitimising Bitcoin in the eyes of traditional investors and potentially triggering a surge in demand.
While predicting future price movements remains a fool’s errand, analysts are abuzz with bullish projections for Bitcoin in 2024. Some experts forecast a potential doubling of its current price, exceeding $100,000, fueled by the combined forces of ETF approval, institutional inflows, and increased retail participation.
Beyond the Numbers: A Paradigm Shift
The significance of Bitwise’s seed investment and the potential approval of its ETF transcends mere price predictions. It marks a turning point in the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, signalling its evolution from a speculative internet plaything to a bona fide asset class embraced by both Wall Street and Main Street. The ETF’s arrival could usher in a new era of financial inclusion, granting millions access to a previously opaque and complex investment landscape.
Of course, challenges remain. Regulatory hurdles still loom, and concerns around Bitcoin’s energy consumption and scalability persist. However, the seeds sown by Bitwise’s bold move and the growing chorus of endorsements from financial heavyweights like Larry Fink suggest that the tide is turning in Bitcoin’s favour. 2024 could be the year it truly shines, not just in terms of price, but as a potent symbol of a decentralised future reshaping the very fabric of finance.
Investment Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Navigating the Uncertain Seas: Key Elements for Your 2024 Risk Management Plan
As we stand at the precipice of 2024, the economic landscape appears shrouded in a veil of uncertainty. The IMF warns of a “fragile recovery,” the ECB echoes concerns of “heightened financial stability risks,” while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve contemplate further interest rate cuts. In this climate of volatility, having a robust risk management plan in place is no longer a mere option, but a critical imperative for business leaders.
This article, penned by an experienced business risk management expert, serves as your guide in navigating these uncertain waters. We will delve into the key elements you must include in your 2024 risk management plan, drawing on insights from leading global financial institutions to equip you with the tools necessary to weather the coming storm.
1. Embrace a Forward-Looking Perspective:
Traditional risk management often adopts a reactive stance, focusing on mitigating known threats. However, in today’s rapidly evolving environment, such an approach is akin to navigating a storm with outdated weather charts. In 2024, it is crucial to adopt a forward-looking perspective, actively scanning the horizon for emerging risks and proactively constructing safeguards.
The IMF stresses this need for vigilance, stating, “Global risks remain elevated, and policymakers need to be prepared for potential shocks.” This necessitates incorporating scenario planning into your risk management framework. Consider various plausible economic, geopolitical, and technological scenarios, and assess their potential impact on your business operations. By anticipating potential disruptions, you can develop adaptive strategies that allow you to pivot and thrive even in unforeseen circumstances.
2. Prioritise Financial Resilience:
With central banks hinting at interest rate cuts and a potential economic slowdown looming, financial resilience should be at the core of your 2024 risk management plan. The Bank of England warns of “heightened vulnerabilities in the financial system,” highlighting the need for businesses to shore up their financial reserves. You need to get ready to seize new business opportunities as well as threats in 2024.
Here are some actionable steps you can take:
Conduct thorough stress testing to assess your ability to withstand various economic shocks.
Diversify your funding sources to reduce dependence on any single lender.
Tighten control over operational costs and implement measures to improve cash flow.
Build financial buffers to weather potential downturns.
Develop your ability as a business to be more innovative.
Remember, a robust financial position provides a critical safety net during turbulent times, allowing you to seize strategic opportunities while your competitors struggle.
3. Fortify Your Cybersecurity Defenses:
The digital landscape is increasingly fraught with cyber threats, ranging from sophisticated ransomware attacks to data breaches. As the ECB aptly states, “Cybersecurity risks remain a key source of financial stability vulnerabilities.” In 2024, businesses must prioritise fortifying their cybersecurity defenses to protect sensitive data and critical infrastructure.
Here are some essential steps to take:
Invest in robust cybersecurity software and regularly update it.
Implement rigorous employee training programs to raise awareness of cyber threats and best practices.
Conduct regular penetration testing to identify and address vulnerabilities in your systems.
Develop a comprehensive incident response plan to effectively handle cyber attacks.
Remember, a single cyber breach can inflict significant financial and reputational damage. By prioritising cybersecurity in your risk management plan, you can safeguard your business against these ever-evolving threats.
Here are some ways to cultivate a risk-aware culture:
Encourage open communication and transparency regarding potential risks.
Empower employees to report concerns and participate in risk identification processes.
Regularly train employees on risk management practices and procedures.
Reward employees for proactively identifying and mitigating risks.
By embedding risk awareness into your corporate fabric, you empower your employees to become active participants in safeguarding your business, creating a more resilient and adaptable organization.
5. Embrace Agility and Adaptability:
The volatile economic landscape of 2024 demands agility and adaptability. As the IMF aptly puts it, “Uncertainty remains high, and flexibility will be key.” This means being prepared to adjust your strategies and operations as circumstances evolve.
The year 2024 promises to be a year of economic uncertainty and potential turbulence. However, by incorporating the key elements outlined in this article, you can develop a robust risk management plan that safeguards your business and positions you for success. Remember, effective risk management is not a one-time exercise, but an ongoing process. Continuously monitor the evolving landscape, update your plan accordingly, and foster a culture of risk awareness within your organisation. By remaining vigilant, adaptable, and financially resilient, you can navigate the uncertain seas of 2024 and emerge stronger on the other side.
In closing, let us leave you with the words of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank: “Resilience is not built overnight. It requires constant vigilance, preparedness, and adaptation. Let us be the generation that builds stronger foundations for a more resilient future.”
Inflation and interest rates are not guaranteed to fall in 2024!
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index: A Stormy Sea Ahead After Red Sea Attacks
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), a key gauge of global shipping costs, has once again become a stormy sea, this time roiled by the recent attacks in the Red Sea in December 2023. While the index had been on a downward trend throughout 2023, offering hope for moderating inflation and easing supply chain pressures, the Red Sea disruptions have sent it surging back up, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the global economic outlook in 2024.
Prior to the Red Sea attacks, the SCFI had been on a steady decline since its January 2022 peak, dropping from over 5100 points to around 1250 points by December. This decline reflected some easing of congestion and pressure on shipping costs, raising hopes for a more stable economic climate.
However, the attacks on oil tankers and a commercial vessel near the Yemeni port of Hodeidah in December sent shockwaves through the shipping industry. The heightened security concerns and potential disruption to vital trade routes through the Red Sea have caused a sharp spike in the SCFI, pushing it back up to around 1800 points as of December 29, 2023.
Implications for Inflation and Interest Rates:
This sudden surge in the SCFI has significant implications for inflation and interest rates in 2024. As shipping costs rise, the price of imported goods increases, potentially fueling inflationary pressures. This could lead central banks to reconsider their monetary policy stances and potentially resume interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
The extent to which the Red Sea attacks impact inflation and interest rates will depend on several factors, including the duration of the disruptions, the effectiveness of security measures implemented, and the overall resilience of global supply chains. However, the potential for renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is a cause for concern for businesses and consumers alike.
Risk Management Strategies for Business Leaders:
In this uncertain environment, business leaders must be prepared to navigate the choppy waters of the SCFI and mitigate the potential risks associated with rising shipping costs. Here are some key strategies to consider:
Diversify Supply Chains and Shipping Routes: Reduce reliance on Red Sea routes and explore alternative shipping routes and sourcing options to minimise exposure to disruptions.
Invest in Supply Chain Visibility: Enhance your ability to track shipments and anticipate potential delays to adjust inventory levels and production schedules.
Strengthen Supplier Relationships: Foster closer partnerships with key suppliers to ensure reliable supply and negotiate flexible pricing terms that account for fluctuating shipping costs.
Optimise Inventory Management: Implement data-driven inventory management practices to minimise carrying costs and optimise stock levels based on projected demand and SCFI trends.
Consider Flexible Pricing Models: Explore pricing models that can adjust to fluctuations in shipping costs and protect your profit margins.
By adopting these strategies, businesses can build resilience in their supply chains and navigate the challenges of a volatile SCFI in 2024.
Conclusion:
The recent spike in the SCFI serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of global supply chains and the potential for unforeseen events to disrupt the delicate balance of global trade. While the long-term impact of the Red Sea attacks remains uncertain, businesses must be prepared for a more challenging economic landscape in 2024. By remaining agile, diversified, and informed, businesses can weather the storm and emerge stronger in the face of an unpredictable shipping market.
Business development ideas for your business to grow faster in 2024
5 Keys to Unlocking Exponential Online Growth in 2024: An Online Marketing Expert’s Guide for Business Leaders
The digital landscape is a churning ocean, offering both immense opportunities and fierce competition. As 2024 crests the horizon, business leaders seeking to stay afloat and reach new heights must prioritise online expansion. But with countless strategies and tools swirling around, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Fear not, for this guide serves as your compass, outlining the top 5 things you can do ASAP to supercharge your online sales and propel your business forward.
1. Master the Magnet: Become a Content Powerhouse
“Content is king,” as Bill Gates famously declared, and in the digital realm, this truth reigns supreme. Your website and social media channels are prime real estate, and you must fill them with content that captivates, educates, and ultimately converts visitors into loyal customers.
Craft compelling storytelling: Don’t just sell products, sell experiences. Weave narratives that resonate with your target audience, highlighting your brand’s values and how you solve their problems. Remember, people connect with emotions, not just features.
Embrace diverse formats: Text, video, infographics, podcasts – the content buffet is vast. Experiment with different formats to cater to varied learning styles and preferences. Short, engaging videos can explain complex concepts, while in-depth blog posts can showcase your expertise.
Remember the evergreen: While trends come and go, high-quality evergreen content, like detailed product guides or industry reports, never loses its value. It drives consistent traffic and leads, becoming a cornerstone of your digital strategy.
Quote Power: “The key to successful content marketing is to create quality content that people want to share, with the intention of getting readers to come back for more.” – Jeff Bullas
2. SEO: The Unsung Hero of Traffic Acquisition
Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) is the invisible force that catapults your website to the top of search engine results pages (SERPs). The higher you rank, the more eyes land on your offerings, and the more sales you unlock.
Keyword research is your treasure map: Identify relevant keywords your target audience uses to search for products or services like yours. Tools like Google Keyword Planner and Ahrefs can be your guide.
Optimise your website content: Integrate these keywords naturally throughout your website, from page titles and headers to meta descriptions and blog posts. Remember, keyword stuffing is a digital sin – prioritise user experience and natural language.
Technical SEO: The engine under the hood: Ensure your website’s structure and code are optimised for search engines. Page loading speed, mobile-friendliness, and internal linking are crucial factors.
Backlinks are your currency: Earn high-quality backlinks from reputable websites, acting like votes of confidence in your content. Guest blogging, collaborating with influencers, and creating shareable content can help you earn these valuable links.
Quote Power: “The aim of SEO is to get people to find you when they’re looking for something. It’s not about manipulating search engines, it’s about providing a great user experience.” – Danny Sullivan
3. Embrace the Social Butterfly: Master Social Media Engagement
Social media is where you connect, converse, and build relationships with your audience. It’s not just about broadcasting promotional messages; it’s about creating a vibrant community.
Know your platform playground:Different platforms cater to different demographics and communication styles. Find where your target audience thrives – be it the visual feast of Instagram, the professional networking of LinkedIn, or the trending topics of Twitter.
Authenticity is your secret weapon: Be genuine, be transparent, and share your brand personality. Engage in conversations, respond to comments, and run interactive polls or contests. Show your audience the human side of your business.
Visual storytelling is key: High-quality images and videos capture attention and spark engagement. Showcase your products in action, share behind-the-scenes glimpses, and create visually appealing content that resonates with your audience.
Paid advertising can turbocharge your reach: Strategic social media advertising can get your content in front of a wider audience, particularly targeted toward specific demographics and interests. But remember, organic engagement is still king – use paid ads as a complementary tool, not a replacement for meaningful engagement.
Quote Power: “Social media is not about the platforms, it’s about the people. Connect with your audience, not just the customers.” – Simon Sinek
4. Personalisation: The Customer-Centric Compass
In today’s digital age, customers crave personalised experiences. They want to feel seen, heard, and understood. To unlock exponential growth, you must move beyond one-size-fits-all marketing and embrace personalisation.
Data becomes your crystal ball: Leverage customer data, website analytics, and purchase history to understand your audience’s preferences, pain points, and buying behavior. Use this information to tailor your marketing messages, product recommendations, and website content to their individual needs.
Dynamic content delivers: Implement dynamic content tools that personalise website experiences based on visitor data. Show targeted product recommendations, display relevant blog posts, and adjust website copy based on location or demographics. This creates a unique and engaging experience for each customer, increasing the likelihood of conversion.
Emailing with empathy: Segment your email lists and craft personalised messages that resonate with each segment. Offer targeted discounts, share relevant blog content, and celebrate important milestones like birthdays or anniversaries. Remember, automation is valuable, but authenticity is priceless.
Quote Power: “The aim of marketing is to know and understand the customer so well the product or service sells itself.” – Peter Drucker
5. Measure, Adapt, Thrive: Embrace the Growth Mindset
Your online marketing journey isn’t set in stone. It’s a continuous loop of experimentation, analysis, and improvement. Tracking your results is crucial to understanding what works and what needs tweaking.
Data, your faithful companion: Utilise analytics tools to monitor website traffic, engagement metrics, and conversion rates. Identify patterns, understand user behaviour, and pinpoint areas for improvement. Remember, A/B testing is your friend – test different headlines, call-to-actions, and website layouts to see what resonates best with your audience.
Agility is your superpower: Be prepared to adjust your strategies based on data insights. Don’t be afraid to pivot if a campaign isn’t performing or embrace new trends if they align with your target audience. Remember, the most successful businesses are those that learn and adapt quickly.
Embrace lifelong learning: Stay ahead of the curve by learning new marketing trends, attending industry events, and following thought leaders. The digital landscape is constantly evolving, and continuous learning is key to maintaining a competitive edge.
Quote Power: “It’s not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” – Charles Darwin
In Conclusion:
The path to online growth in 2024 is paved with content, strategy, and a customer-centric approach. By leveraging these five keys and embracing a data-driven, adaptable mindset, you can unlock explosive growth for your business. Remember, success online is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Be patient, be persistent, and most importantly, be passionate about connecting with your audience and delivering value.
This guide serves as your starting point, but the journey is yours to explore. So, step into the digital arena, wield your content sword, and conquer the online frontier. The future of your business awaits!
Make sure you know who could damage your business or present new opportunities for growth
2024: Navigating the Political Storm – A Business Leader’s Guide to Risk Management
As we gaze into the crystal ball of 2024, the political landscape shimmers with both opportunity and peril. For business leaders, navigating this terrain requires not just a keen eye for the market, but an astute understanding of the political forces that can shape – or shatter – their best-laid plans. Let’s look at political risk insights and risk management strategies needed to mitigate the biggest political risks of the year ahead.
The Looming Giants: Four Major Political Risks of 2024
The US Presidential Election: Buckle up, folks, it’s a wild ride. With the incumbent facing a resurgent opposition and a potential third-party candidate throwing a wrench in the gears, the 2024 US election promises to be a nail-biter. The volatility will spill over into global markets, impacting trade, investment, and even travel.
Quote: “Politics are almost as exciting as war, and quite as unpredictable.” – Winston Churchill
Geopolitical Tensions: The simmering tensions between major powers, fuelled by ideological clashes and resource competition, threaten to boil over in 2024. From the South China Sea to the Ukraine conflict, businesses with footprints in these volatile regions must prepare for disruptions and potential sanctions.
Quote: “In times of conflict, the law falls silent.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero
The Rise of Populism: The siren song of populism continues to enchant disillusioned voters, potentially ushering in leaders with unpredictable agendas and protectionist policies. Businesses reliant on open markets and global supply chains must adapt to navigate these shifting sands.
Quote: “A nation cannot exist half slave and half free.” – Abraham Lincoln
Climate Change and Social Unrest: As the existential threat of climate change intensifies, so too does the potential for social unrest and political instability. Businesses operating in vulnerable regions must factor in the possibility of protests, civil disobedience, and even government clampdowns.
Quote: “The Earth has provided for life for billions of years… it will do so for billions more without us.” – Carl Sagan
Risk Management Toolbox: Strategies for Weathering the Storm
Scenario Planning: Develop multiple scenarios based on different political outcomes, allowing you to adapt and pivot quickly. Think of it as playing chess ahead of time, considering all your opponent’s possible moves.
Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments and operations across diverse regions and markets, diluting your exposure to any single political risk.
Lobbying and Engagement: Build relationships with policymakers and key stakeholders. Proactive engagement can ensure your voice is heard and your interests are considered as policies are formulated.
Crisis Communication: Have a clear communication plan in place for navigating potential crises. Transparency and timely updates can mitigate reputational damage and build trust with stakeholders.
Seek Expert Guidance: Don’t go it alone. Leverage the expertise of political risk consultants who can provide tailored insights and strategies for navigating complex political landscapes.
Remember, the key to successful risk management is not predicting the future, but being prepared for whatever it throws your way. By understanding the biggest political risks of 2024 and implementing these proactive strategies, you can turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage and steer your business toward continued success. And as Sun Tzu wisely advised, “Know the enemy and know yourself; in every battle, you will then be victorious.”
Currencies compete against each other and their value may not reflect their true worth!
The Sterling Saviour: Why America’s Woes, Not Britain’s Brawn, Bolster the Pound
Across the pond, a curious spectacle unfolds. The British pound, battered and bruised for years, has suddenly found favour, flexing its muscles against the mighty dollar in December 2023. While headlines trumpet a resurgent Britain, let’s hold the Union Jack confetti for a moment. This newfound strength has less to do with Britannia’s biceps and more to do with Uncle Sam’s wobbly ankles.
UK business leaders and consumers need to peek beyond the celebratory bunting and understand the true story behind the pound’s ascent. It’s not solely a tale of British brilliance, but rather a reflection of America’s deepening economic and political quagmire.
Debt Avalanche: When Uncle Sam Gets Buried Under Bills
America’s national debt has ballooned to astronomical heights, surpassing a staggering $30 trillion. This mountain of red ink, fueled by years of government overspending and tax cuts for the wealthy, casts a long shadow over the US economy. It cripples the government’s ability to invest in crucial infrastructure and social programs, while simultaneously saddling future generations with a crushing burden.
This debt tsunami isn’t limited to Uncle Sam’s coffers. American consumers are drowning in their own ocean of debt, with student loans, mortgages, and credit card balances reaching record levels. This mountain of personal debt hampers economic growth, as consumers tighten their belts and reduce spending.
The Fragile Colossus: Cracks in the American Banking System
These anxieties spill over into the global financial system, impacting the dollar’s perceived safe-haven status. Investors, spooked by American financial fragilities, seek refuge in alternative currencies, including the pound.
Political Pendulum: When Washington Becomes a Wobbling Circus
American politics have become a spectacle of division and dysfunction. Hyper-partisanship and gridlock in Washington make it nearly impossible to address pressing issues like inflation, healthcare, and climate change. This political uncertainty breeds economic anxiety, further weakening the dollar’s allure.
In contrast, the UK, despite its own political challenges, appears relatively stable. Brexit anxieties have subsided, and a new Prime Minister offers a semblance of direction. This perceived stability, compared to the American political rollercoaster, makes the pound a more attractive proposition for some investors.
Britannia’s Balancing Act: Not All Roses and Tea
Let’s not paint a rosy picture for the UK either. Britain grapples with its own set of economic woes, including rising inflation, a labour shortage, and dependence on volatile global markets. The war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions further complicate the picture.
The Bank of England’s recent interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, could also dampen economic growth. A potential recession on the horizon would undoubtedly weaken the pound.
Navigating the Currency Crossroads: Cautious Optimism for UK Businesses and Consumers
So, where does this leave UK businesses and consumers? The pound’s recent strength offers a welcome respite, but it’s not a magic bullet. Businesses should exercise caution when making currency-dependent decisions, hedging against potential fluctuations. Diversifying markets and currencies can mitigate risk and ensure long-term stability.
For consumers, the stronger pound could translate to slightly cheaper imported goods and travel. However, inflationary pressures may offset these gains. Responsible budgeting and financial planning remain crucial, regardless of the pound’s performance.
In conclusion, the pound’s December surge is less a testament to British might and more a symptom of American malaise. A confluence of debt, financial fragility, and political uncertainty across the Atlantic has pushed investors towards the perceived relative stability of the UK. However, it’s vital to remember that Britain’s own economic challenges loom large.
For UK businesses and consumers, the message is clear: embrace cautious optimism. Enjoy the currency tailwind while it lasts, but prepare for potential choppy waters ahead. Focus on building resilience, diversifying risk, and making sound financial decisions, lest the tide turn once again. Remember, currency markets are a fickle beast, and the sun rarely shines eternally on any single shore.
If you don’t have confidence in your risk management modelling system, then you cannot have confidence in your risk management plan!
The Cloudy Crystal Ball: Why Economic Models Can’t Predict the Future (and What We Can Do About It)
As business leaders and consumers in the UK navigate the ever-turbulent waters of the global economy, one question looms large: can we trust the forecasts? Economic models, once hailed as oracles of the future, have stumbled badly in recent years, failing to anticipate major events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. This has left many wondering: are we all just flying blind?
The Limits of the Model Machine:
Economic models are not, and never will be, crystal balls. While these complex mathematical constructs can provide valuable insights into economic trends, they are inherently limited by a number of factors:
Incomplete Data: Economic models rely on historical data to identify patterns and relationships. However,the economy is a dynamic system,constantly evolving in unpredictable ways. New technologies, political upheavals, and natural disasters can all throw sand in the gears of even the most sophisticated model.
Human Factor Flaw: The economy is ultimately driven by human behaviour,which is notoriously difficult to predict. Models often struggle to account for factors like consumer confidence, investor sentiment, and political decision-making, leading to inaccuracies.
The Black Swan Problem: As Nassim Nicholas Taleb famously argued,unforeseen events – “black swans” – can have a profound impact on the economy. Models excel at predicting the familiar, but struggle to handle the truly unexpected.
The Governor’s Voice:
This point has been echoed by no less than Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, who, in a speech earlier this year, stated:
“Economic models are powerful tools, but they are not infallible. They are based on historical data and assumptions, and they can be blindsided by unexpected events. It is important to remember that models are not reality, they are just a simplified representation of it.”
Beyond the Model Maze:
So, if economic models cannot be relied upon for perfect foresight, are we doomed to make decisions in the dark? Absolutely not. While models may not provide infallible predictions, they can still be valuable tools for understanding the underlying dynamics of the economy. Here are some ways we can move beyond the limitations of models and make informed decisions in a world of uncertainty:
Embrace Scenario Planning: Instead of relying on a single “most likely” forecast, consider multiple scenarios, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of potential risks and opportunities.
Focus on Leading Indicators: While lagging indicators, like GDP growth, tell us what has happened, leading indicators, like consumer confidence surveys, can provide clues about what might happen. By monitoring these signals, we can be better prepared for potential shifts in the economy.
Listen to the Ground: Don’t get lost in the data blizzard. Talk to businesses, consumers, and workers on the ground to get a sense of their lived experiences and concerns. This qualitative data can complement the quantitative insights from models and provide a more holistic understanding of the economic landscape.
Prioritise Adaptability: In a world of constant change, the ability to adapt is key. Businesses and consumers should focus on building resilience and flexibility into their plans, allowing them to adjust to unforeseen circumstances.
Conclusion:
Economic models are imperfect tools, but they are not useless. By understanding their limitations and employing additional strategies, we can move beyond the model maze and make informed decisions in an uncertain world. As Bank of England Governor Bailey reminded us, “The future is always uncertain, but by being prepared and adaptable, we can navigate the challenges ahead and build a more resilient economy.”
The A Political Quagmire: Navigating Uncertain Seas in the US and UK
The year 2023 has painted a stark picture of political dysfunction in both the United States and the United Kingdom. In the US, a gridlocked Congress produced a meager 23 bills, a far cry from the legislative productivity expected from the world’s leading democracy. Across the Atlantic, the echoes of Brexit continue to reverberate, with the UK Parliament bogged down in endless debates instead of tackling the pressing economic challenges facing the nation. This grim reality poses a significant challenge for individuals and businesses in both countries, leaving them adrift in a sea of uncertainty.
The American Stalemate: A Congress in Paralysis
The 2023 legislative output of the US Congress stands as a testament to the deep partisan divide currently gripping American politics. Republicans and Democrats seem locked in a perpetual tug-of-war, more interested in scoring political points than finding common ground. This has resulted in a legislative drought, leaving crucial issues like healthcare reform, infrastructure development, and climate change unaddressed.
For individuals, this political paralysis translates into a sense of disillusionment and a feeling of being forgotten by their elected representatives. The lack of progress on key issues like healthcare affordability and student loan debt directly impacts their lives, while the inaction on climate change raises anxieties about the future. Meanwhile, businesses face an unpredictable regulatory environment, hindering investment and economic growth.
Navigating the Labyrinth: What Americans Can Do
In the face of this legislative inertia, individuals and businesses must become the architects of their own destinies. Here are some strategies to navigate the American political quagmire:
Engage constructively: Reach out to your representatives and express your concerns and priorities. Support organizations that advocate for issues you care about and participate in peaceful protests and demonstrations.
Vote strategically: Research the candidates in your local and national elections and vote based on their track record and policy positions. Consider candidates who demonstrate a willingness to compromise and work across the aisle.
Focus on local politics: Engage with your local community and participate in local elections. Local governments often have a significant impact on daily life, and your involvement can make a real difference.
Support civic engagement initiatives: Encourage and educate others about the importance of political participation. Promote initiatives that foster civil discourse and bridge the partisan divide.
Brexit’s Bitter Aftermath: UK’s Economy Lost in the Fog
While the US suffers from congressional gridlock, the UK grapples with the fallout of Brexit. The 2016 referendum, which saw a narrow vote to leave the European Union, has plunged the nation into a protracted political and economic crisis. Parliament remains embroiled in endless debates about the terms of the withdrawal agreement, with little progress made on addressing the concerns of businesses and citizens regarding trade, immigration, and the future of the National Health Service.
For individuals, Brexit has brought uncertainty about jobs, wages, and access to essential goods and services. Businesses face complex bureaucratic hurdles and the potential for reduced market access. The ongoing political turmoil erodes confidence in the economy and dampens investment, further hindering growth.
Charting a Course Forward: How the UK Can Steer Out of Troubled Waters
To emerge from this quagmire, the UK needs a renewed focus on pragmatism and national unity. Here are some potential pathways forward:
Prioritise the economy: Parliament must shift its focus from Brexit minutiae to addressing the immediate concerns of businesses and citizens. Policies that stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and support vulnerable communities are essential.
Seek common ground: Political parties must find ways to cooperate and compromise on key issues.Collaborative leadership that transcends partisan divides is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.
Foster open dialogue: The government must engage in transparent communication with the public, clearly explaining the implications of various Brexit scenarios and seeking feedback on potential solutions.
Invest in education and skills training: Equipping the workforce with the necessary skills to thrive in the post-Brexit landscape is crucial for long-term economic success.
Promote international cooperation: Building strong relationships with other countries, both within and outside of the EU, will be essential for securing trade deals and fostering economic opportunity.
A Common Challenge, Different Solutions
While the political landscapes of the US and UK differ significantly, the challenges they face share a common thread: a lack of effective governance and a disconnect between elected officials and the people they represent. To overcome these hurdles, both nations must rediscover the spirit of compromise, prioritise the needs of their citizens and businesses, and embrace pragmatism over ideology.
The road ahead will undoubtedly be challenging, but by staying informed, engaging constructively, and holding their leaders accountable, individuals and businesses can play a vital role.
Some bank shares are still more than 90% off their peak pre 2008 financial crisis so there is no such thing as “safe as money in the bank”!
The Inflationary Storm: Are Cryptos Your Lifeboat?
A dark cloud hangs over the global economy. Whispers of recession turn into shouts, and governments, desperate to keep the ship afloat, resort to the familiar mantra: fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing. But what does this mean for your hard-earned money? Enter cryptocurrencies: a digital life raft in a sea of potential devaluation.
As a currency and economics expert, I’m here to navigate these choppy waters. Today, we’ll explore the potential for crypto as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. We’ll dive into the economic storm, examine the limitations of traditional safeguards, and assess whether venturing into the crypto realm could be your best bet.
The Looming Devaluation:
Governments and central banks worldwide have injected trillions into their economies since the pandemic. This, coupled with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, is fuelling an inflationary fire. Fiat currencies, backed by nothing but government promises, are losing their purchasing power. A loaf of bread that cost $2 yesterday may cost $2.10 tomorrow, silently eroding your savings and future.
Traditional Safe Havens Fail:
Historically, gold and other precious metals have been go-to hedges against inflation. But their limited supply and physical constraints don’t cater to everyone’s needs. Real estate or property, another traditional option, suffers from high entry barriers and illiquidity.
This is where cryptocurrencies enter the picture. With their decentralised nature, limited supply, and global reach, they present a new, albeit volatile, option.
The Crypto Advantage:
Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies,many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin,have a predetermined cap on their supply. This scarcity helps limit inflation and potentially increases their value over time.
Decentralisation: Cryptocurrencies aren’t subject to the whims of governments or central banks. Their decentralised networks offer a buffer against devaluation policies used to stimulate economies.
Global Accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can access and trade cryptocurrencies, regardless of location or financial standing. This democratises wealth management and opens doors to previously excluded individuals.
Store of Value: While their volatility often grabs headlines, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have exhibited long-term value appreciation. Their potential to act as a digital gold, a secure store of value in a turbulent economy, is undeniable.
The Risk Factor:
However, venturing into the world of cryptocurrencies isn’t without its risks:
Volatility: The crypto market is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing wildly, making them potentially unsuitable for risk-averse individuals.
Regulation: The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is still evolving, creating uncertainty and potential for government intervention.
Security: Crypto wallets and exchanges have been targets for hackers, highlighting the importance of choosing secure platforms and practicing safe storage methods.
Navigating the Crypto Waters:
So, should you dive into the crypto ocean as a hedge against devaluation? The answer depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a safe haven, traditional options like gold might be better suited. However, if you have the risk appetite and are willing to do your research, cryptocurrencies could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.
Remember, diversification is key. Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket. Start with a small allocation, understand the risks involved, and invest only what you can afford to lose.
For Business Leaders:
Explore crypto’s potential as a payment option:Accepting cryptocurrencies can attract tech-savvy customers and expand your reach.
Educate your employees: Equip your team with the knowledge they need to understand and potentially utilise cryptocurrencies.
For Consumers:
Do your research: Understand the different types of cryptocurrencies and their underlying technologies before investing.
Diversify your portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.
Start small: Invest only what you can afford to lose, and remember the market is volatile.
Choose secure platforms: Store your cryptocurrencies in reputable wallets and exchanges.
Cryptocurrencies present a fascinating blend of opportunity and risk in the face of potential fiat currency devaluation. While not a guaranteed solution, they offer a novel approach to securing your financial future. Remember, knowledge is power in this realm. Educate yourself, assess your risk tolerance, and make informed decisions to weather the coming economic storm. The crypto lifeboat might just be the key to staying afloat in the inflationary seas ahead.
Who will be your landlord in future and what does it mean in the short and long term?
The Rise of Institutional Homeownership: Will Banks Become Your Landlord?
The traditional image of a homeowner – an individual or family purchasing a property for personal use – is undergoing a significant shift in the United Kingdom. Enter the institutional investor, specifically banks like Lloyds, venturing into the single-family home market on a grand scale. This trend, while nascent, poses intriguing questions about the future of housing affordability, rents, and the very nature of homeownership in the UK.
Banks as Landlords: A New Game in Town
Driven by factors like low interest rates, a perceived hedge against inflation, and the potential for stable rental income, institutional investors are increasingly eyeing the residential property market. Lloyds Bank, the UK’s largest mortgage provider, stands as a prime example. In 2021, they partnered with the housebuilder Taylor Wimpey to acquire thousands of newly built homes for rental purposes. This move isn’t isolated; similar initiatives are underway across the pond in the US, with major players like Blackstone and Goldman Sachs amassing vast portfolios of single-family homes.
Impact on Housing Prices: A Double-Edged Sword
The immediate impact of institutional buying on house prices is a complex issue. On the one hand, their deep pockets could inject significant capital into the market, potentially driving up prices, particularly in desirable locations. This could exacerbate affordability concerns, especially for first-time buyers already struggling with rising costs.
On the other hand, some argue that institutional investors might act as a stabilising force, purchasing excess inventory during market downturns and preventing price crashes. Additionally, their focus on energy-efficient, modern homes could contribute to long-term improvements in the housing stock.
Ultimately, the net effect on prices will depend on various factors, including the scale of institutional buying, government policies, and broader economic trends.
Rents on the Rise? Not So Simple Either
While the prospect of institutional landlords might raise concerns about rent hikes, the reality is likely to be more nuanced. Firstly, these investors are primarily interested in long-term, stable returns, which incentivises them to offer competitive rents to attract and retain tenants. Additionally, regulations like rent control measures could play a role in curbing excessive rent increases.
However, concerns remain. The sheer volume of homes owned by institutions could give them significant market power, potentially allowing them to exert upward pressure on rents, particularly in areas with limited housing options. Moreover, the focus on professional property management might lead to a less personal and potentially less responsive landlord-tenant relationship compared to traditional setups.
The Long View: Redefining Homeownership
The long-term implications of this trend are far-reaching. A future with a significant portion of homes owned by institutions could fundamentally alter the concept of homeownership in the UK. Traditional homeowner aspirations, centred around property ownership and wealth accumulation, might give way to a renter-centric model, where stability and affordability become the primary concerns.
This shift could have profound social consequences, potentially impacting wealth distribution, community dynamics, and even political landscapes. It’s crucial to have open and informed discussions about the potential benefits and drawbacks of this new paradigm, ensuring that policies and regulations are in place to protect tenants and safeguard a healthy housing market for all.
Beyond the Numbers: Humanising the Equation
In the rush to analyse statistics and market trends, it’s important to remember that housing is more than just an investment or a commodity. Homes are where families build memories, communities thrive, and lives unfold. As we navigate this changing landscape, it’s essential to keep the human element at the centre of the conversation. We must ensure that this new wave of institutional ownership doesn’t come at the cost of affordability, stability, and the very essence of what makes a house a home.
The rise of institutional homeownership presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for the UK. While it holds the potential to boost the housing market and offer stability, it also raises concerns about affordability, renter rights, and the long-term social impact. As we move forward, careful consideration, informed policy decisions, and a focus on human needs are crucial to ensure that this new chapter in UK housing benefits everyone, not just the bottom line of institutional investors.
Fools gold or once in a lifetime opportunity in 2024?
The Crystal Ball of Crypto: Predicting Spot ETF Acceptability and Market Impact in 2024
The nascent world of cryptocurrencies has been on a rollercoaster ride, its trajectory heavily influenced by regulatory decisions, particularly when it comes to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Spot ETFs, tracking the underlying price of a crypto asset directly, promise to unlock unprecedented mainstream access and potential legitimisation for this new asset class. With multiple applications currently under review in various countries, the question remains: Where will these applications land? And what does it mean for cryptocurrency valuations in 2024? Predicting the future is always precarious, but by analysing current trends, regulatory landscapes, and industry sentiment, we can paint a picture of potential scenarios.
The Global Regulatory Landscape: Shades of Gray across Borders
The regulatory landscape for crypto assets, and Spot ETFs by extension, remains fragmented and diverse. Different countries approach the issue with varying degrees of receptiveness and caution. Let’s take a peek into some key regions:
North America: The US, the world’s largest financial market, has been notoriously hesitant. Despite numerous applications, the SEC hasn’t approved any Spot ETFs yet, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, recent developments like BlackRock’s application and a court favouring Grayscale’s case signal a potential shift towards approval in 2024. Canada, on the other hand, has already approved several Spot ETFs, setting a precedent for the region.
Europe:Europe has taken a more pragmatic approach, with Germany approving its first Spot ETF in 2021. Several other European countries are actively considering applications, with Switzerland and France potentially following suit in 2024. However, stricter regulatory frameworks like MiCA could impose additional hurdles.
Asia: The picture in Asia is complex. Hong Kong, known for its financial openness, recently broke new ground by approving its first Spot ETF, the CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF. This marks a significant departure from the stance of mainland China, which has banned individual crypto trading entirely. Meanwhile, Japan, after initial apprehension, has recently approved a Bitcoin futures ETF, potentially paving the way for further developments.
Predicting the Domino Effect: Acceptance Scenarios and their Impact
Based on these regional variations, let’s consider three potential scenarios for Spot ETF acceptance by the end of 2024:
Scenario 1: The Dam Breaks Open
A wave of approvals sweeps across major markets like the US, Canada, and several European countries. This scenario, fueled by growing institutional interest and industry pressure, could trigger a surge in demand for crypto assets, driving up valuations significantly. Increased liquidity and accessibility could attract new investors, further amplifying the bull run. This scenario, however, also carries risks, as rapid price climbs could be followed by sharp corrections if regulatory crackdowns or technological limitations arise.
Scenario 2: A Measured Waltz
Acceptance occurs but at a controlled pace. Regulators take time to carefully vet applications, prioritising robust safeguards and investor protection. This scenario would result in a gradual rise in valuations without the intense volatility of Scenario 1. New investors would enter cautiously, ensuring a more sustainable growth trajectory. However, this also means the full potential of Spot ETFs would be realised over a longer timeframe.
Scenario 3: The Cold Shoulder
Regulatory hurdles persist, with major markets like the US remaining hesitant. This scenario would keep the crypto market confined to its current niche, hindering mainstream adoption and limiting valuation growth. However, it could also foster further innovation within the crypto ecosystem, driving development towards greater decentralisation and security.
Beyond the Crystal Ball: The Unknowns and Opportunities
Predicting the future of crypto valuations is an intricate dance with numerous variables. Even the most robust analysis must acknowledge the presence of unforeseen black swans: unforeseen regulatory shifts, technological breakthroughs, or major market events. However, regardless of the specific scenario that unfolds, Spot ETFs are destined to be a game-changer for the crypto landscape. Increased institutional involvement, improved access, and potential regulatory legitimacy will undoubtedly have a profound impact on valuations, shaping the trajectory of this emerging asset class in 2024 and beyond.
As investors navigate this new frontier, it’s crucial to stay informed, manage risks responsibly, and remain adaptable to the ever-evolving nature of the cryptoverse. The crystal ball may be blurry, but the potential of Spot ETFs shines brightly, illuminating a future where mainstream adoption and institutional acceptance could propel cryptocurrencies into the heart of the global financial system.
Understand the growing threat of financial collapse
The Dangers to Businesses and People from Eurozone Bank Stress and Loan Defaults: An Expert Perspective
The Eurozone banking sector is facing a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and increased loan defaults. These factors are putting stress on banks’ balance sheets and making it more difficult for them to lend to businesses and consumers. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences for businesses and people across the Eurozone.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on Businesses
Businesses rely on banks to provide them with the credit they need to operate and grow. When banks are under stress, they are more likely to tighten lending standards and raise interest rates. This can make it difficult for businesses to get the loans they need to invest in new equipment, hire new employees, and expand their operations. As a result, businesses may be forced to cut back on their spending, which can lead to slower economic growth and job losses.
In addition, businesses that are unable to obtain loans from banks may turn to riskier forms of financing, such as borrowing from high-interest lenders or taking on more debt. This can increase their financial risk and make them more vulnerable to economic downturns.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on People
People also rely on banks for a variety of financial services, such as checking and savings accounts, mortgages, and auto loans. When banks are under stress, they may reduce their hours of operation, close branches, and increase fees. This can make it more difficult for people to access the financial services they need.
In addition, if banks are forced to raise interest rates, this will make it more expensive for people to borrow money. This could lead to an increase in household debt and make it more difficult for people to make ends meet.
The Dangers of Loan Defaults
Loan defaults are a major concern for banks because they can significantly erode their capital. When a borrower defaults on a loan, the bank loses the money it lent out, and it may also have to pay legal fees and other expenses to collect the debt. This can quickly eat into the bank’s capital, which is the money it needs to operate and withstand financial shocks.
If banks are not able to maintain adequate capital levels, they may be forced to reduce their lending activities or even go bankrupt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, as it would make it even more difficult for businesses and consumers to get the credit they need.
Policy Options to Address Eurozone Bank Stress
There are a number of policy options that could be taken to address Eurozone bank stress and reduce the risk of loan defaults. These include:
Providing additional regulatory capital relief to banks: This would help banks to build up their capital buffers and make them more resilient to financial shocks.
Encouraging banks to securitise their loans: Securitisation is a process of pooling loans together and selling them to investors as securities. This can help banks to reduce their exposure to individual borrowers and spread out their risk.
Implementing stricter lending standards: This would help to ensure that banks are only lending to borrowers who are able to repay their loans.
Improving the quality of credit data: This would help banks to make better lending decisions and reduce the risk of loan defaults.
Conclusion
Eurozone bank stress and loan defaults pose a significant threat to businesses and people across the Eurozone. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences. Policymakers need to take action to address these challenges and reduce the risk of a financial crisis.
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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?
The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.
Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:
Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.
It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.
In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.
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The regulation of investment funds insurance companies and banks in Europe is fragmented in terms of consumer protection. This may expose the individual consumer of financial products and services to unnecessary risks. Trying to change this is near impossible for practical and political time reasons. It would take too long to change this and there is not the political timetable to make it happen ever. However it means that the financial services industry needs to accept duplication of reporting and higher than needed regulatory and risk management compliance costs.
The way to protect consumers of financial products is to adopt enterprise risk management principles and practices in the management of investment fund insurance company and banking risks.
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The financial services industry should maintain its focus on whether high quality financial services best practices are being provided for the benefit of the consumer the financial services business and the financial services business leaders.
Amber Rudds proposal to jail people for up to 7 years who wilfully or recklessly manage or handle pension funds in UK may be another indicator of a desire to tackle the financial services industry’s inability to properly protect the end benefactor of investment related products.
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Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.
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Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder
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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.
Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.
Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.
Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.
The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. ItalianChinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in EuropeAsia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.
Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.
A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.
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Globally Empty Office Buildings and Commercial Property Creating Debt Collapse, Systemic Threat to Banking System Worldwide
The COVID-19 pandemic and central banks response – overprinting of money out of thin air – has had a devastating impact on the global economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than in the commercial real estate sector. As businesses have been forced to close or operate remotely, millions of square feet of office space have been vacated, leaving office buildings empty around the world.
This has led to a sharp decline in property values, and many commercial real estate owners are now facing significant financial losses. In some cases, these losses have become so severe that they have forced property owners to default on their loans, which could have a ripple effect throughout the global banking system.
Who Has the Most Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
The financial institutions that have the most exposure to commercial real estate are those that specialise in lending to businesses and developers. These institutions include commercial banks, investment banks, regional banks in USA and insurance companies.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, commercial banks worldwide have about $20 trillion in outstanding loans to commercial real estate borrowers. This represents about 10% of all bank lending globally.
Investment banks and insurance companies also have significant exposure to commercial real estate. Investment banks, for example, often underwrite and market commercial real estate bonds, which are a type of debt security that is backed by the income generated from rental properties. Insurance companies, on the other hand, often invest in commercial real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are companies that own and operate income-producing properties.
Are Banks in Danger?
The sharp decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns that banks could be in danger of suffering significant losses on their loans to commercial real estate borrowers. In some cases, these losses could be so severe that they could force banks to default on their own debts, which could lead to a systemic financial crisis.
However, it is important to note that banks have a variety of tools at their disposal to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. For example, banks can sell off their commercial real estate loans to other investors, or they can take steps to restructure the terms of these loans. At the same time if the sea level is going down for all banks in real estate debt crisis will there be enough saviours?
In addition, the government can also play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market. For example, the government can provide financial assistance to banks that are struggling with commercial real estate losses, or it can provide tax breaks to businesses that are considering moving back into office space. At the same time this is inflationary and may result in even higher interest rates – problem delayed but worsened thereby extending and increasing length of recession creating depression.
How Many Office Buildings Are Empty in the US?
According to a recent survey by the commercial real estate firm CBRE, about 15% of office space in the United States is currently vacant. This represents about 250 million square feet of empty office space.
The vacancy rate is highest in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. In these cities, the vacancy rate is often above 20%.
The vacancy rate is also high in some smaller cities and towns. For example, the vacancy rate in the city of Detroit is currently over 30%.
These, official, vacancy rates seem lower than real levels other agencies produce and anecdotally.
Why Are the Banks in Trouble?
The banks are in trouble because they have lent too much money to commercial real estate borrowers. When these borrowers default on their loans, the banks are left holding the bag.
The banks are also in trouble because the value of their commercial real estate assets has declined. This decline in value has made it more difficult for the banks to sell these assets, and it has also reduced the amount of collateral that they have available to secure their loans.
The banks are also facing increased competition from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and hedge funds. These non-bank lenders are often willing to lend money to commercial real estate borrowers at lower interest rates than the banks.
Conclusion
The global pandemic has had a devastating impact on the commercial real estate sector, and this has led to significant financial losses for banks and other financial institutions. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as more and more businesses continue to operate remotely. If it gets worse it will be a very long time – decades – before it gets better!
The government will need to play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market, and banks will need to take steps to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. If these steps are not taken, the global banking system could be in danger of a systemic crisis.
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Managing Risk in Financial Services
Managing Risk in the Ever-Evolving Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry is a complex and dynamic sector that plays a vital role in the global economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including banking, insurance, investment management, and more. However, with the constant changes and uncertainties in the business landscape, managing risk has become a critical aspect of the financial services industry. In this article, we will explore the challenges and best practices of managing risk in the ever-evolving financial services industry.
The Changing Landscape of the Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry has gone through significant changes over the years, driven by various factors such as technological advancements, regulatory reforms, economic fluctuations, and changing customer preferences. These changes have brought new opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in this industry.
One of the significant changes in the financial services industry is the increasing reliance on technology. The digital revolution has transformed the way financial services are delivered and consumed. Fintech companies have emerged, leveraging technology to disrupt traditional financial services providers. This has resulted in increased competition and the need for traditional financial institutions to adapt and innovate to stay relevant.
Another change in the financial services industry is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies around the world have implemented stringent regulations to safeguard consumers and ensure financial stability. These regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States and the MiFID II directive in the European Union, have increased compliance requirements for financial services firms. Non-compliance can result in severe penalties and reputational damage, making effective risk management essential.
Economic fluctuations also impact the financial services industry. Economic downturns can lead to increased credit risk, market volatility, and liquidity challenges, while economic upturns can present growth opportunities. As the global economy becomes increasingly interconnected, events in one part of the world can have ripple effects on financial markets globally, making risk management more complex and critical.
Lastly, changing customer preferences and behaviors have also impacted the financial services industry. Customers now demand personalized and convenient financial services, with a focus on transparency and trust. This has led to a shift in business models, with a greater emphasis on customer-centricity and digital engagement. Firms need to understand customer preferences and manage reputational risk to maintain customer trust and loyalty.
Challenges in Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry
The evolving landscape of the financial services industry has brought about several challenges in managing risk effectively. Some of the significant challenges include:
Increasing Complexity: The financial services industry is highly complex, with numerous products, services, and processes. Risk managers need to understand the intricacies of various financial instruments, business models, and regulatory requirements to identify and manage risks effectively.
Changing Regulations: The regulatory landscape is constantly evolving, with new regulations being introduced and existing ones amended. Financial services firms need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure compliance, which requires significant resources and expertise.
Cybersecurity Risks: The increasing reliance on technology has also exposed the financial services industry to cybersecurity risks. Cyber threats, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, can result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, political instability, and sanctions, can have significant impacts on the financial services industry. These events can affect global markets, currencies, and investment portfolios, leading to increased volatility and risk exposure.
Reputation Risk: Reputation is crucial in the financial services industry, and any damage to reputation can have severe consequences. Negative public perception, loss of customer trust, and regulatory scrutiny can all result in significant financial and operational impacts.
Operational Risks: The complex and interconnected nature of the financial services industry also presents operational risks. Operational failures, such as system outages, processing errors, and human errors, can disrupt business operations, cause financial losses, and harm reputation.
Risk of Financial Crime: Financial services firms are also exposed to risks related to financial crime, including money laundering, fraud, and corruption. These risks can arise from internal or external sources and can result in regulatory penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Risk from Emerging Technologies: The rapid pace of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrency, presents both opportunities and risks for the financial services industry. Firms need to understand the risks associated with emerging technologies and implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate them.
Best Practices for Managing Risk in the Financial Services Industry
Given the challenges and complexities of managing risk in the financial services industry, it is essential for firms to adopt best practices to effectively mitigate risks. Here are some key best practices for managing risk in the financial services industry:
Develop a Robust Risk Management Framework: Financial services firms should establish a comprehensive risk management framework that includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting. This framework should be integrated into the firm’s overall strategy, operations, and decision-making processes.
Embrace a Risk Culture: Establishing a strong risk culture is critical for effective risk management. It involves fostering a culture where risk awareness and accountability are embedded in the organisation’s values, behaviours, and practices. This includes promoting open communication, risk transparency, and learning from mistakes.
Stay Abreast of Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is heavily regulated, and firms need to stay updated with the latest regulatory changes that impact their operations. This includes understanding the implications of regulatory changes, ensuring compliance, and engaging with regulators proactively.
Enhance Cybersecurity Measures: Given the increasing cybersecurity risks, financial services firms should implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect their systems, data, and customer information. This includes regular cybersecurity assessments, employee training, and incident response plans.
Diversify Risk Management Strategies: Financial services firms should adopt a diversified approach to risk management. This includes diversifying investments, customers, and markets to reduce concentration risk. It also involves using risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and derivatives to mitigate risks.
Conduct Comprehensive Due Diligence: Financial services firms should conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering into any business relationships, such as partnerships, acquisitions, or investments. This includes assessing the financial stability, reputation, and compliance of potential business partners to mitigate counterparty risk.
Implement Robust Compliance Programs: Compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should establish robust compliance programs that include policies, procedures, and controls to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and internal policies.
Invest in Technology and Data Analytics: Technology and data analytics can play a significant role in enhancing risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should invest in advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, to identify, assess, and monitor risks effectively.
Continuously Monitor and Update Risk Management Strategies: Risk management is an ongoing process, and firms should continuously monitor and update their risk management strategies to adapt to changing business and market conditions. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and making necessary adjustments as needed.
As the financial services industry continues to evolve, managing risk has become more critical than ever. Firms operating in this industry face various challenges, including increasing complexity, changing regulations, cybersecurity risks, geopolitical risks, reputation risk, operational risks, risk from emerging technologies, and risk from financial crime. However, by adopting best practices such as developing a robust risk management framework, embracing a risk culture, staying abreast of regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and safeguard their operations, reputation, and financial stability.
It is crucial for financial services firms to recognize that risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process that requires constant attention and adaptation. By proactively identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, firms can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential risk events and ensure their long-term sustainability.
In addition, fostering a strong risk culture within the organisation is essential for effective risk management. This involves creating an environment where risk awareness and accountability are valued, and employees at all levels are encouraged to report risks and concerns without fear of reprisal. A robust risk culture promotes open communication, transparency, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement.
Furthermore, leveraging technology and data analytics can greatly enhance risk management efforts in the financial services industry. Advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, can enable firms to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in vast amounts of data, allowing for more informed risk assessments and timely risk mitigation actions.
Lastly, financial services firms should stay updated with the latest regulatory changes and engage with regulators proactively. Regulatory requirements are constantly evolving, and firms need to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations to avoid penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage. Regular communication and collaboration with regulators can help firms understand the implications of regulatory changes and proactively address any potential compliance gaps.
In conclusion, managing risk is a critical aspect of operating in the financial services industry. With the increasing complexity and evolving landscape of this industry, firms need to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to risk management. By developing a robust risk management framework, fostering a strong risk culture, staying updated with regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and ensure their long-term success. It is imperative for financial services firms to prioritise risk management and make it an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. By doing so, they can safeguard their operations, protect their reputation, and maintain the trust of their customers and stakeholders in the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry.
Tips advice and support for better decision making in financial services industry. Improve conduct risk. Change the way your business relates to your customers. Upgrade your risk management and conduct risk governance framework to ensure everyone knows who does what and when. This should embrace accountability for the consequences of not managing conduct risks in accordance with clear risk management principles risk appetite of the business.
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The whole business needs to report on conduct risk performance. The risk function should help monitor conduct risks within the risk management plan but everyone in the business should be accountable for good customer outcomes. Internal Audit should check the documentation for conduct risk management challenging the whole business and the risk function to improve conduct risk effectively.
The Board executives and senior managers need to develop and embed the right risk management culture for the business risk tolerance and risk appetite. However all staff should be held to account by ensuring that all remuneration and incentives are linked to good risk management practices.
If people are to be held to account the business the board and senior managers must provide the tools to ensure that all staff are capable of delivering conduct risk management principles and practices. This includes training staff developing good risk management systems and early risk warning indicators to enable rapid corrective action to prevent severe impact on business objectives and major personal failure.
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Cut through the management information overload to focus on the conduct risks that matter to your business success and key customer outcomes. Do not procrastinate. Act to remedy deteriorating conduct risks and monitor the effectiveness of your risk management action plan.
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Improve customer outcomes from financial services and products. Embed conduct risk in your holistic risk management framework.
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Are you personally accountable? Do you want more comfort that you are doing the right things at the right time? Improve you overview of regulatory compliance and supervisory expectations of conduct risk management.
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The Financial Conduct Authority FCA in UK expects your financial services business to embed conduct risk management into your enterprise risk management framework. You need to use risk based management information to make better conduct risk management decisions.
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The Damaging Consequences of Overprinting Money
Overprinting money is the act of a government or central bank creating new currency units without a corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services. This can lead to a number of negative consequences for the global economy and businesses, including:
Inflation: Inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates: In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Overprinting money can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead to an increase in speculation and volatility in asset prices. This can make it difficult for businesses to raise capital and operate effectively.
Reduced trust in government: When governments resort to overprinting money to finance their spending, it can lead to a loss of trust in the government. This can make it more difficult for governments to raise taxes and borrow money in the future.
The negative consequences of overprinting money are not limited to the global economy. Businesses can also suffer a number of negative consequences, including:
Increased costs: When inflation rises, businesses may have to increase their prices in order to cover their costs. This can lead to a decrease in demand for their products or services.
Decreased profits: If inflation outpaces revenue growth, businesses may see their profits decrease. This can make it difficult for businesses to invest and grow.
Increased risk: When the value of the currency is unstable, businesses face increased risk. This is because they may not be able to predict how much their costs or revenues will increase in the future. This can make it difficult for businesses to make long-term plans.
Loss of market share: If businesses are unable to keep up with inflation, they may lose market share to competitors who are able to pass on higher costs to consumers.
The negative consequences of overprinting money can be severe and far-reaching. It is important for governments and businesses to be aware of these risks and to take steps to mitigate them.
What are the negative effects of reducing money supply?
Increasing credit crunch risk due to lack of money supply or unaffordable borrowing costs
Reducing the money supply can also have negative consequences for the economy. This is because it can lead to a decrease in economic growth, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in asset prices.
When the money supply is reduced, it becomes more expensive for businesses to borrow money. This can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in unemployment, as businesses are less likely to hire new workers when it is more expensive to borrow money.
In addition, a decrease in the money supply can lead to a decrease in asset prices eg house prices, stock market shares, etc. This is because when there is less money in circulation, people are less likely to bid up the prices of assets. This can lead to losses for investors who own assets, such as stocks and property.
What are the disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy?
The disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy include:
Inflation: As mentioned earlier, inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates: In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Excess money in circulation can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead
Understanding Economic Indicators For Effective Risk Management
Economic indicators are statistics that provide information about a country’s economic performance and outlook. They are used by businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic indicators. It measures the value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders. A growing GDP is generally seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a decline in GDP can indicate a recession.
Another important economic indicator is the unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. A low unemployment rate is usually seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a high unemployment rate can indicate weakness.
Inflation is another important economic indicator. It measures the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. High inflation can indicate that an economy is overheating, while low inflation can indicate weakness.
Interest rates are also an important economic indicator. Central banks use interest rates to control inflation and stabilise the economy. Higher interest rates can slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, while lower interest rates can stimulate growth by making borrowing cheaper.
Economic indicators can also be divided into leading, lagging, and coincident indicators. Leading indicators tend to change before the economy as a whole changes, and can provide early warning signs of an impending recession or recovery. Lagging indicators, on the other hand, tend to change after the economy as a whole changes, and can confirm the onset of a recession or recovery. Coincident indicators tend to change with the economy as a whole and tend to reflect the current state of the economy.
Effective risk management involves staying informed about economic indicators, understanding their significance, and using them to make informed decisions. By monitoring economic indicators, businesses and investors can anticipate changes in the economy and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, Economic indicators are important tools for understanding the current state and future prospects of an economy. By monitoring key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, businesses and investors can make informed decisions and effectively manage risk.
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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Latest economic news for UK and global economy
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Financial services industry news headlines risk analysis and financial reports
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
less emotional
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Mortgage advice
Financial and investment advice
Insurance advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
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The VIX Bullish Falling Wedge: A Sign of a Stock Market Crash?
12 July 2023
The VIX, or the CBOE Volatility Index, is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index. It is often referred to as the “fear index” because it tends to rise when investors are feeling more fearful about the market.
In recent weeks, the VIX has been in a bullish falling wedge pattern. This is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash.
Why does the VIX go down when the market goes up?
The VIX is a measure of expected volatility, which means that it is based on how investors think the market will move in the future. When the market is going up, investors are less likely to expect volatility, which is why the VIX tends to go down.
Should I buy or sell when VIX is low?
There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Some investors believe that it is a good time to buy when the VIX is low, as this indicates that investors are feeling less fearful about the market. However, others believe that it is better to wait until the VIX has risen to a more moderate level before buying.
What should I look for before a market crash?
There are a number of things that investors can look for before a market crash. These include:
A rising VIX
A decline in market liquidity
A widening of credit spreads
A decline in economic growth
A rise in political uncertainty
What is the most important predictor of a market crash?
There is no one single factor that can definitively predict a market crash. However, the VIX is often seen as one of the most important predictors. A rising VIX indicates that investors are becoming more fearful about the market, which can be a sign that a crash is on the horizon.
Conclusion
The VIX bullish falling wedge is a technical pattern that is often seen as a sign of a market bottom. However, some analysts are concerned that the VIX falling wedge could break out to the downside, which could be a sign of a stock market crash. Investors should carefully monitor the VIX and other market indicators in the coming weeks and months to assess the risk of a crash.
The VIX is a valuable tool for investors who want to stay ahead of the market. By monitoring the VIX, investors can get a sense of how fearful investors are about the market and make informed decisions about when to buy or sell.
However, it is important to remember that the VIX is not a perfect predictor of market crashes. There have been times when the VIX has been high and the market has not crashed, and there have also been times when the VIX has been low and the market has crashed.
As such, investors should not rely on the VIX alone to make investment decisions. They should also consider other factors, such as economic fundamentals and market sentiment, before making any trades.
Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017
If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.
17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent
UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.
Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.
If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest
Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!
UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.
Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.
Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.
Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.
Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.
Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.
The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.
So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.
The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.
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UK Pension Liabilities In Private Sector Public Sector and Not For Profit Sector Are Out Of Control
Why are the systems meant to protect those saving for retirement so inadequate? You might say they are underfunded rather than unfunded until you see how much underfunding there is and then you might agree that really pensions are unfunded!
How well will you live in the UK in the autumn of your life enter code #PensionAdvice
Pension News Headlines Risk Analysis and Reviews
18th March 2018 In Future UK Employees Pensions Maybe Better Protected
Avoiding or abusing pension responsibilities maybe made a crime under plans to crack down on business leaders who fail to comply with their responsibilities to protect pensions and pensioners in UK.
The UK’s Insolvency Service will also be given extra powers to help protect employees from negligent corporate business decision makers who put pension schemes at risk.
22nd January 2018 UK Prime Minister May Says UK Will Stop Abuse Of Pension Schemes By Executives and Shareholders
The scandal of continuous underfunding of UK pensions and the abuse of pension provision in the UK has been highlighted once again by the collapse of the UK’s second biggest construction company Carillion. Some 28,000 pensioners are likely to face reduced pension payments due to the collapse of Carillion with perhaps a £1 billion pension hole where Carillions money should be.
Instead of addressing the pension hole Carillion executives chose to boost the performance of the firm by underfunding the pension pot paying higher dividends and paying themselves larger bonuses than they would otherwise have been entitled to. Carillion pensioners will transfer to the Pension Protection Fund after the collapse of Carillion but many pensioners many pension members out of pocket when their pension is likely to be cut.
The UK Prime Minister says the UK will clamp down on executives who line their own pockets while not protecting workers pensions.
New rules in the spring of 2018 will aim to deal with executives who threaten worker’s pensions in order to benefit personally from bigger bonuses or rewards.
However Mrs May said last year after the BHS scandal that she would tackle executive abuse to pension contributions with no progress to date.
27th June 2017 UK Pension Regulator published its report into a deal under which Philip Green paid £363m to BHS pension scheme
The Pension Regulator says the main purpose in selling BHS was to prevent taking on liability for the BHS pension scheme. The Pension Regulator says that under Mr Greens watch the BHS pension fund had moved from a surplus into a deficit. However after Mr Greens personal recent substantial contribution BHS pension fund now has a £100m surplus.
However what is clear is that pension fund risk management is highly inadequate. Periodically massive pension fund shortfalls materialise into real financial loss to pensioners. This will continue until legislation corrects the inadequacy of the present regulatory control and monitoring. Perhaps the Pension Regulator could also do its job better. It needs to show its teeth earlier.
Citibank Report 2016
According to Citibank, the 20 largest OECD countries alone owe $78 trillion to their public sector pension funds funding for pay-as-you-go and defined benefit public pensions.
Do you pay into a private pension in UK? Your employer is not! Overall private pension funding in UK is only up to around two-thirds of what is needed. Around three quarters of a trillion pounds extra is needed to fully fund private UK pensions!
Where is this money going to come from to make sure you get your pension when you retire?
Carillion BHS Steelworkers et al are not the only ones who are worried about their retirement money!
Too many people in the UK who think they are saving for their retirement via a pension have been let down and will continue to be let down
Unfunded public sector pensions make up two-thirds of the £2 trillion UK pension liabilities. Private sector pension funds should hopefully become less of an issue as private pension funds or closed to new members and subsequently closed down altogether. However BHS has shown how private pension funds can throw up real problems for those saving for retirement or in retirement.
Why has the UK got saving for retirement so badly wrong?
Unfunded state pensions are the legacy of our fathers and mothers. They have failed to grasp the nettle of saving for retirement and have left a mess to the next generation in the UK whilst pocketing relatively generous pensions for themselves. This is compounded by unfunded central and local government employee pensions.
Public sector pensions are essentially like illegal Ponzi schemes where people think they are investing in their future retirement, but largely they are paying the pensions of those who are retired in UK now. They are really paying money with little more than a hope that the young of today will pay their pension when they retire. However there is no guarantee that the young of today and government’s of the future will feel inclined to pay for retired people’s lifestyles they have no hope of matching when the young eventually retire. The main risk control measure seems to be increasing the state retirement age. And so it continues.
Corrupt business leaders are also failing to pay into private pensions to fund the pension of many people in private sector funds. They seem to be hoping that they will get away with it and someone else will pick up the tab which is normally the retired person who did pay their fair share into the pension fund.
The pension scandal is yet more evidence of the failure of risk management, corporate governance and compliance to create a fair society and corporate culture. A demographic time bomb will soon explode but at the moment successive UK governments are happy to pass the parcel in the hope that the music doesn’t stop when they are in charge.
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UK public sector and private sector pension funds are seriously underfunded so keep up to date with developments to see if you will get your pension in UK when you retire enter code #PensionCrisis
Dealing with reckless management of UK pension schemes
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Scores of bankers have been jailed for their part in the financial crisis but the rest of the world should hang its head in shame for its lack of demonstration of accountability for actions and inaction in face of corporate risk
Financial services industry leaders not just bankers were highly culpable for the financial crisis upon which people committed suicide and a lost their shirts. Financial leaders should lose their liberty.
The next financial crisis is just around the corner. We have seen many incidents since the financial crisis that haven’t quite been systemic risk events but they have cost financial services companys billions in fines for poor and deliberate malpractice. Financial services leaders haven’t learnt their lesson. They are just paying lip-service to good corporate governance. Only the real threat of the jail will stop the next financial crisis happening.
Not only have the culprits for the financial crisis got away with it, they have gone on to be leaders in the financial services industry or other leading businesses.
From leading bankers to leading politicians to leading regulators to leading credit rating agency leaders to leading central bankers they have all prospered despite the financial crisis and many have gone from causing the financial crisis to other positions of power without being held to account for their actions or inaction.
There has been limited tightening of global financial services regulations but the ultimate sanction of losing your liberty is still highly unlikely. It still more likely that financial services leaders will depart their employer with handsome pay-offs and pension packages rather than serving time in a USA or UK jail.
Until individual financial services industry leaders face and are convicted of criminal prosecutions business leaders will continue to lead their employers to hefty financial penalties and even liquidation. If you kill someone at work, you at least have some real chance of going to jail. If you kill a corporate entity, you will almost certainly not go to jail in UK and USA. Appearing in court to face charges is not the same as losing your liberty for 7 to 10 years.
European countries have been a little more robust at jailing the guilty but only a few can be proud of their resolve to improve corporate governance in practice.
Financial Services Industry Risk News Headlines Industry Analysis and Risk Reviews
15th October 2019 Reckless Business Leaders Who Mismanage Pension Schemes May Face Up To 7 Years In Jail Under New UK Legislation.
The Pension Schemes Bill will bring in a new sentence of up to seven years in prison for business leaders who are reckless in the management of their pension schemes.
Pick up the latest financial services news opinions reviews and jobs
20th June 2017 SFO charges former Barclays chief executive John Varley and three others Roger Jenkins Tom Kalaris and Richard Boath. After a five-year investigation into the £12bn bailout fundraising recapitalisation of Barclays bank by Qatar
Barclays strategy was to go to Qatar for money instead of UK government. The bank and the ex-bank executives will officially respond to SFO charges on 3rd July. The charges include conspiracy to commit fraud by false representation in relation to a fundraising in June 2008. The ex bank executives are facing potential jail of up to 10 years if convicted.
Other charges for some of those accused and the bank include providing unlawful financial assistance through a loan.
Barclays said it was considering its position in relation to these developments and awaiting further details of the charges.
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The pace of business change is increasing. How many people will drive for a living in the next decade? How many people will work in warehouses in next 10 years? What new risks are emerging for businesses when the dramatic changes of 4th Industrial Revolution expected soon are commonly in place?
Cyber crime or error is just one of the threats. How should a business like Amazon react if they are threatened by a cyber criminals who say they have the capability to shut down its warehouse and distribution drones! They presumably have not but even if it was never possible how would Amazons share price react? What will this mean for Amazon’s ability to borrow to invest in its future?
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Get the answers you need to know what to do next that will have the best net positive impact on your business. What are the critical risk factors you need to manage? How viable are your existing business opportunities?
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If you know what the key risks are do YOU oversee the impact on your business or have you delegated it?
Do others in your organisation want to seize a business advantage of your competitors as much as you do? Do your competitors want any of your existing business revenue?
No you can not do everything yourself but are you creating the right risk management culture to ensure that others are of the same mind as you?
If you are not changing your failing!
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Enterprise risk management will not provide any net benefit to the organisation if its leaders don’t buy in to the principles the benefits of risk assessment process and the framework the best performing companies conform to.
Business leaders must agree the risk appetite and risk tolerance of the organisation before the risk assessment process can begin
The risk assessment process is a good management tool but it can be nullified corrupted and cost the organisation money and performance if it doesn’t operate within and support the risk culture of the business.
Enterprise wide perspective on corporate risks
Strategic operational and project risks all need to be included in the risk management framework and risk assessment process to provide consistency of business decision-making to improve performance of the business.
