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Navigating the Uncertain Seas: Key Elements for Your 2024 Risk Management Plan
As we stand at the precipice of 2024, the economic landscape appears shrouded in a veil of uncertainty. The IMF warns of a “fragile recovery,” the ECB echoes concerns of “heightened financial stability risks,” while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve contemplate further interest rate cuts. In this climate of volatility, having a robust risk management plan in place is no longer a mere option, but a critical imperative for business leaders.
This article, penned by an experienced business risk management expert, serves as your guide in navigating these uncertain waters. We will delve into the key elements you must include in your 2024 risk management plan, drawing on insights from leading global financial institutions to equip you with the tools necessary to weather the coming storm.
1. Embrace a Forward-Looking Perspective:
Traditional risk management often adopts a reactive stance, focusing on mitigating known threats. However, in today’s rapidly evolving environment, such an approach is akin to navigating a storm with outdated weather charts. In 2024, it is crucial to adopt a forward-looking perspective, actively scanning the horizon for emerging risks and proactively constructing safeguards.
The IMF stresses this need for vigilance, stating, “Global risks remain elevated, and policymakers need to be prepared for potential shocks.” This necessitates incorporating scenario planning into your risk management framework. Consider various plausible economic, geopolitical, and technological scenarios, and assess their potential impact on your business operations. By anticipating potential disruptions, you can develop adaptive strategies that allow you to pivot and thrive even in unforeseen circumstances.
2. Prioritise Financial Resilience:
With central banks hinting at interest rate cuts and a potential economic slowdown looming, financial resilience should be at the core of your 2024 risk management plan. The Bank of England warns of “heightened vulnerabilities in the financial system,” highlighting the need for businesses to shore up their financial reserves. You need to get ready to seize new business opportunities as well as threats in 2024.
Here are some actionable steps you can take:
Conduct thorough stress testing to assess your ability to withstand various economic shocks.
Diversify your funding sources to reduce dependence on any single lender.
Tighten control over operational costs and implement measures to improve cash flow.
Build financial buffers to weather potential downturns.
Develop your ability as a business to be more innovative.
Remember, a robust financial position provides a critical safety net during turbulent times, allowing you to seize strategic opportunities while your competitors struggle.
3. Fortify Your Cybersecurity Defenses:
The digital landscape is increasingly fraught with cyber threats, ranging from sophisticated ransomware attacks to data breaches. As the ECB aptly states, “Cybersecurity risks remain a key source of financial stability vulnerabilities.” In 2024, businesses must prioritise fortifying their cybersecurity defenses to protect sensitive data and critical infrastructure.
Here are some essential steps to take:
Invest in robust cybersecurity software and regularly update it.
Implement rigorous employee training programs to raise awareness of cyber threats and best practices.
Conduct regular penetration testing to identify and address vulnerabilities in your systems.
Develop a comprehensive incident response plan to effectively handle cyber attacks.
Remember, a single cyber breach can inflict significant financial and reputational damage. By prioritising cybersecurity in your risk management plan, you can safeguard your business against these ever-evolving threats.
Here are some ways to cultivate a risk-aware culture:
Encourage open communication and transparency regarding potential risks.
Empower employees to report concerns and participate in risk identification processes.
Regularly train employees on risk management practices and procedures.
Reward employees for proactively identifying and mitigating risks.
By embedding risk awareness into your corporate fabric, you empower your employees to become active participants in safeguarding your business, creating a more resilient and adaptable organization.
5. Embrace Agility and Adaptability:
The volatile economic landscape of 2024 demands agility and adaptability. As the IMF aptly puts it, “Uncertainty remains high, and flexibility will be key.” This means being prepared to adjust your strategies and operations as circumstances evolve.
The year 2024 promises to be a year of economic uncertainty and potential turbulence. However, by incorporating the key elements outlined in this article, you can develop a robust risk management plan that safeguards your business and positions you for success. Remember, effective risk management is not a one-time exercise, but an ongoing process. Continuously monitor the evolving landscape, update your plan accordingly, and foster a culture of risk awareness within your organisation. By remaining vigilant, adaptable, and financially resilient, you can navigate the uncertain seas of 2024 and emerge stronger on the other side.
In closing, let us leave you with the words of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank: “Resilience is not built overnight. It requires constant vigilance, preparedness, and adaptation. Let us be the generation that builds stronger foundations for a more resilient future.”
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Top 10 Business Risk Management Jobs with Skills Shortages Heading into 2024: A Recruiter’s Perspective
As the calendar edges closer to 2024, business leaders worldwide are taking stock, strategising, and bracing for the ever-evolving landscape of risk. In this volatile climate, one thing remains constant: the critical need for skilled and dedicated professionals in business risk management (BRM).
However, a concerning trend is emerging – a widening skills gap within the BRM domain. Several key job titles within this field are facing acute shortages, leaving organisations exposed and vulnerable. Recruiters shed light on the top 10 such roles and the crucial skills employers are desperately seeking.
1. Chief Risk Officer (CRO): The captain of the BRM ship, the CRO oversees the entirety of an organisation’s risk landscape. They require exceptional leadership, strategic acumen, and deep understanding of industry regulations. “A strong CRO is worth their weight in gold. They not only identify and mitigate threats but also build a culture of proactive risk awareness within the company.”
2. Operational Risk Manager: Responsible for day-to-day risk assessment and mitigation within specific operations, these individuals juggle meticulous attention to detail with broader strategic thinking. Strong analytical skills, process improvement expertise, and a keen eye for potential disruptions are essential. “Operational risk managers are the silent guardians of efficiency. Their vigilance ensures smooth operations and prevents costly hiccups.”
3. Cyber Security Risk Analyst: With cyber threats escalating by the day, skilled cyber security risk analysts are in high demand. They must possess a blend of technical expertise (think vulnerability assessments and penetration testing) and strong communication skills to translate complex technical jargon into actionable insights for leadership. “In today’s digital age, cyber security is not just an IT issue, it’s a business imperative. Cyber security risk analysts are the frontline soldiers in this critical battle.”
4. Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery (BCDR) Planner: Adept at conjuring disaster preparedness plans from thin air, BCDR planners are masters of resilience. They require meticulous planning skills, logistical prowess, and the ability to keep a cool head under pressure. “A good BCDR planner is worth their weight in gold when disaster strikes. They ensure our business can weather any storm, minimising downtime and protecting our bottom line.”
5. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Specialist: ERM specialists are the glue that binds an organisation’s risk management framework together. They excel at data analysis, risk modelling, and translating complex risk assessments into actionable insights for different departments. “ERM specialists are the translators of the risk world. They break down complex data into digestible information that empowers informed decision-making across the organisation.”
6. Fraud Investigator: Unearthing financial deception and safeguarding organisational assets, fraud investigators are the financial detectives of the business world. They require a keen eye for detail, sharp analytical skills, and the tenacity to follow the money trail wherever it leads. “Fraud investigators are the silent guardians of our financial integrity. Their vigilance protects our bottom line and ensures investor confidence.”
7. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Analyst: With ESG considerations becoming increasingly crucial for businesses, skilled ESG analysts are a hot commodity. They must possess a comprehensive understanding of sustainability principles, social impact measurement, and the ability to translate complex ESG data into actionable insights for leadership. “ESG analysts are the bridge between business and sustainability. They help us make informed decisions that not only benefit our bottom line but also create a positive impact on the planet and society.”
8. Supply Chain Risk Analyst: In today’s globalised world, supply chains are intricate and vulnerable. Supply chain risk analysts are the watchdogs, identifying and mitigating potential disruptions, from resource shortages to geopolitical instability. Strong analytical skills, supplier relationship management expertise, and a global perspective are key. “In today’s interconnected world, supply chain resilience is paramount. Supply chain risk analysts are the first line of defense against disruptions that can cripple our operations.”
9. Regulatory Compliance Officer: Their role is pivotal in protecting organisations from legal repercussions and reputational damage. “Compliance officers are the unsung heroes of corporate governance. Their vigilance ensures we operate within the bounds of the law and maintain the trust of our stakeholders.”
10. Internal Auditor: Acting as the organisation’s independent watchdog, internal auditors assess internal controls, identify risks and inefficiencies, and make recommendations for improvement. They require strong accounting and analytical skills, a keen eye for detail, and the ability to communicate complex findings to leadership in a constructive manner. “Internal auditors are the eyes and ears of the board. Their independent assessments ensure transparency and accountability, driving continuous improvement within the organisation.”
Closing Thoughts:
The skills gap in business risk management is a pressing concern, but it also presents a golden opportunity for talented professionals. By honing the skills outlined above, individuals can position themselves for rewarding careers in this critical field. For businesses, proactively addressing this gap through targeted recruitment, skills development programmes, and competitive compensation packages is crucial for building organisational resilience and navigating the turbulent waters of the future.
As we step into 2024, let us remember that business risk management is not merely a cost centre, but a strategic investment in the future. By fostering a culture of risk awareness, investing in skilled professionals, and implementing robust risk management frameworks, organisations can navigate the ever-changing landscape with confidence, seizing opportunities while mitigating threats.
Remember, the future belongs to those who anticipate the storm and build their ship accordingly.
Get help to fill skills gaps quickly and inexpensively
Inflation and interest rates are not guaranteed to fall in 2024!
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index: A Stormy Sea Ahead After Red Sea Attacks
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), a key gauge of global shipping costs, has once again become a stormy sea, this time roiled by the recent attacks in the Red Sea in December 2023. While the index had been on a downward trend throughout 2023, offering hope for moderating inflation and easing supply chain pressures, the Red Sea disruptions have sent it surging back up, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the global economic outlook in 2024.
Prior to the Red Sea attacks, the SCFI had been on a steady decline since its January 2022 peak, dropping from over 5100 points to around 1250 points by December. This decline reflected some easing of congestion and pressure on shipping costs, raising hopes for a more stable economic climate.
However, the attacks on oil tankers and a commercial vessel near the Yemeni port of Hodeidah in December sent shockwaves through the shipping industry. The heightened security concerns and potential disruption to vital trade routes through the Red Sea have caused a sharp spike in the SCFI, pushing it back up to around 1800 points as of December 29, 2023.
Implications for Inflation and Interest Rates:
This sudden surge in the SCFI has significant implications for inflation and interest rates in 2024. As shipping costs rise, the price of imported goods increases, potentially fueling inflationary pressures. This could lead central banks to reconsider their monetary policy stances and potentially resume interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
The extent to which the Red Sea attacks impact inflation and interest rates will depend on several factors, including the duration of the disruptions, the effectiveness of security measures implemented, and the overall resilience of global supply chains. However, the potential for renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is a cause for concern for businesses and consumers alike.
Risk Management Strategies for Business Leaders:
In this uncertain environment, business leaders must be prepared to navigate the choppy waters of the SCFI and mitigate the potential risks associated with rising shipping costs. Here are some key strategies to consider:
Diversify Supply Chains and Shipping Routes: Reduce reliance on Red Sea routes and explore alternative shipping routes and sourcing options to minimise exposure to disruptions.
Invest in Supply Chain Visibility: Enhance your ability to track shipments and anticipate potential delays to adjust inventory levels and production schedules.
Strengthen Supplier Relationships: Foster closer partnerships with key suppliers to ensure reliable supply and negotiate flexible pricing terms that account for fluctuating shipping costs.
Optimise Inventory Management: Implement data-driven inventory management practices to minimise carrying costs and optimise stock levels based on projected demand and SCFI trends.
Consider Flexible Pricing Models: Explore pricing models that can adjust to fluctuations in shipping costs and protect your profit margins.
By adopting these strategies, businesses can build resilience in their supply chains and navigate the challenges of a volatile SCFI in 2024.
Conclusion:
The recent spike in the SCFI serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of global supply chains and the potential for unforeseen events to disrupt the delicate balance of global trade. While the long-term impact of the Red Sea attacks remains uncertain, businesses must be prepared for a more challenging economic landscape in 2024. By remaining agile, diversified, and informed, businesses can weather the storm and emerge stronger in the face of an unpredictable shipping market.
Business development ideas for your business to grow faster in 2024
5 Keys to Unlocking Exponential Online Growth in 2024: An Online Marketing Expert’s Guide for Business Leaders
The digital landscape is a churning ocean, offering both immense opportunities and fierce competition. As 2024 crests the horizon, business leaders seeking to stay afloat and reach new heights must prioritise online expansion. But with countless strategies and tools swirling around, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Fear not, for this guide serves as your compass, outlining the top 5 things you can do ASAP to supercharge your online sales and propel your business forward.
1. Master the Magnet: Become a Content Powerhouse
“Content is king,” as Bill Gates famously declared, and in the digital realm, this truth reigns supreme. Your website and social media channels are prime real estate, and you must fill them with content that captivates, educates, and ultimately converts visitors into loyal customers.
Craft compelling storytelling: Don’t just sell products, sell experiences. Weave narratives that resonate with your target audience, highlighting your brand’s values and how you solve their problems. Remember, people connect with emotions, not just features.
Embrace diverse formats: Text, video, infographics, podcasts – the content buffet is vast. Experiment with different formats to cater to varied learning styles and preferences. Short, engaging videos can explain complex concepts, while in-depth blog posts can showcase your expertise.
Remember the evergreen: While trends come and go, high-quality evergreen content, like detailed product guides or industry reports, never loses its value. It drives consistent traffic and leads, becoming a cornerstone of your digital strategy.
Quote Power: “The key to successful content marketing is to create quality content that people want to share, with the intention of getting readers to come back for more.” – Jeff Bullas
2. SEO: The Unsung Hero of Traffic Acquisition
Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) is the invisible force that catapults your website to the top of search engine results pages (SERPs). The higher you rank, the more eyes land on your offerings, and the more sales you unlock.
Keyword research is your treasure map: Identify relevant keywords your target audience uses to search for products or services like yours. Tools like Google Keyword Planner and Ahrefs can be your guide.
Optimise your website content: Integrate these keywords naturally throughout your website, from page titles and headers to meta descriptions and blog posts. Remember, keyword stuffing is a digital sin – prioritise user experience and natural language.
Technical SEO: The engine under the hood: Ensure your website’s structure and code are optimised for search engines. Page loading speed, mobile-friendliness, and internal linking are crucial factors.
Backlinks are your currency: Earn high-quality backlinks from reputable websites, acting like votes of confidence in your content. Guest blogging, collaborating with influencers, and creating shareable content can help you earn these valuable links.
Quote Power: “The aim of SEO is to get people to find you when they’re looking for something. It’s not about manipulating search engines, it’s about providing a great user experience.” – Danny Sullivan
3. Embrace the Social Butterfly: Master Social Media Engagement
Social media is where you connect, converse, and build relationships with your audience. It’s not just about broadcasting promotional messages; it’s about creating a vibrant community.
Know your platform playground:Different platforms cater to different demographics and communication styles. Find where your target audience thrives – be it the visual feast of Instagram, the professional networking of LinkedIn, or the trending topics of Twitter.
Authenticity is your secret weapon: Be genuine, be transparent, and share your brand personality. Engage in conversations, respond to comments, and run interactive polls or contests. Show your audience the human side of your business.
Visual storytelling is key: High-quality images and videos capture attention and spark engagement. Showcase your products in action, share behind-the-scenes glimpses, and create visually appealing content that resonates with your audience.
Paid advertising can turbocharge your reach: Strategic social media advertising can get your content in front of a wider audience, particularly targeted toward specific demographics and interests. But remember, organic engagement is still king – use paid ads as a complementary tool, not a replacement for meaningful engagement.
Quote Power: “Social media is not about the platforms, it’s about the people. Connect with your audience, not just the customers.” – Simon Sinek
4. Personalisation: The Customer-Centric Compass
In today’s digital age, customers crave personalised experiences. They want to feel seen, heard, and understood. To unlock exponential growth, you must move beyond one-size-fits-all marketing and embrace personalisation.
Data becomes your crystal ball: Leverage customer data, website analytics, and purchase history to understand your audience’s preferences, pain points, and buying behavior. Use this information to tailor your marketing messages, product recommendations, and website content to their individual needs.
Dynamic content delivers: Implement dynamic content tools that personalise website experiences based on visitor data. Show targeted product recommendations, display relevant blog posts, and adjust website copy based on location or demographics. This creates a unique and engaging experience for each customer, increasing the likelihood of conversion.
Emailing with empathy: Segment your email lists and craft personalised messages that resonate with each segment. Offer targeted discounts, share relevant blog content, and celebrate important milestones like birthdays or anniversaries. Remember, automation is valuable, but authenticity is priceless.
Quote Power: “The aim of marketing is to know and understand the customer so well the product or service sells itself.” – Peter Drucker
5. Measure, Adapt, Thrive: Embrace the Growth Mindset
Your online marketing journey isn’t set in stone. It’s a continuous loop of experimentation, analysis, and improvement. Tracking your results is crucial to understanding what works and what needs tweaking.
Data, your faithful companion: Utilise analytics tools to monitor website traffic, engagement metrics, and conversion rates. Identify patterns, understand user behaviour, and pinpoint areas for improvement. Remember, A/B testing is your friend – test different headlines, call-to-actions, and website layouts to see what resonates best with your audience.
Agility is your superpower: Be prepared to adjust your strategies based on data insights. Don’t be afraid to pivot if a campaign isn’t performing or embrace new trends if they align with your target audience. Remember, the most successful businesses are those that learn and adapt quickly.
Embrace lifelong learning: Stay ahead of the curve by learning new marketing trends, attending industry events, and following thought leaders. The digital landscape is constantly evolving, and continuous learning is key to maintaining a competitive edge.
Quote Power: “It’s not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” – Charles Darwin
In Conclusion:
The path to online growth in 2024 is paved with content, strategy, and a customer-centric approach. By leveraging these five keys and embracing a data-driven, adaptable mindset, you can unlock explosive growth for your business. Remember, success online is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Be patient, be persistent, and most importantly, be passionate about connecting with your audience and delivering value.
This guide serves as your starting point, but the journey is yours to explore. So, step into the digital arena, wield your content sword, and conquer the online frontier. The future of your business awaits!
Make sure you know who could damage your business or present new opportunities for growth
2024: Navigating the Political Storm – A Business Leader’s Guide to Risk Management
As we gaze into the crystal ball of 2024, the political landscape shimmers with both opportunity and peril. For business leaders, navigating this terrain requires not just a keen eye for the market, but an astute understanding of the political forces that can shape – or shatter – their best-laid plans. Let’s look at political risk insights and risk management strategies needed to mitigate the biggest political risks of the year ahead.
The Looming Giants: Four Major Political Risks of 2024
The US Presidential Election: Buckle up, folks, it’s a wild ride. With the incumbent facing a resurgent opposition and a potential third-party candidate throwing a wrench in the gears, the 2024 US election promises to be a nail-biter. The volatility will spill over into global markets, impacting trade, investment, and even travel.
Quote: “Politics are almost as exciting as war, and quite as unpredictable.” – Winston Churchill
Geopolitical Tensions: The simmering tensions between major powers, fuelled by ideological clashes and resource competition, threaten to boil over in 2024. From the South China Sea to the Ukraine conflict, businesses with footprints in these volatile regions must prepare for disruptions and potential sanctions.
Quote: “In times of conflict, the law falls silent.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero
The Rise of Populism: The siren song of populism continues to enchant disillusioned voters, potentially ushering in leaders with unpredictable agendas and protectionist policies. Businesses reliant on open markets and global supply chains must adapt to navigate these shifting sands.
Quote: “A nation cannot exist half slave and half free.” – Abraham Lincoln
Climate Change and Social Unrest: As the existential threat of climate change intensifies, so too does the potential for social unrest and political instability. Businesses operating in vulnerable regions must factor in the possibility of protests, civil disobedience, and even government clampdowns.
Quote: “The Earth has provided for life for billions of years… it will do so for billions more without us.” – Carl Sagan
Risk Management Toolbox: Strategies for Weathering the Storm
Scenario Planning: Develop multiple scenarios based on different political outcomes, allowing you to adapt and pivot quickly. Think of it as playing chess ahead of time, considering all your opponent’s possible moves.
Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments and operations across diverse regions and markets, diluting your exposure to any single political risk.
Lobbying and Engagement: Build relationships with policymakers and key stakeholders. Proactive engagement can ensure your voice is heard and your interests are considered as policies are formulated.
Crisis Communication: Have a clear communication plan in place for navigating potential crises. Transparency and timely updates can mitigate reputational damage and build trust with stakeholders.
Seek Expert Guidance: Don’t go it alone. Leverage the expertise of political risk consultants who can provide tailored insights and strategies for navigating complex political landscapes.
Remember, the key to successful risk management is not predicting the future, but being prepared for whatever it throws your way. By understanding the biggest political risks of 2024 and implementing these proactive strategies, you can turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage and steer your business toward continued success. And as Sun Tzu wisely advised, “Know the enemy and know yourself; in every battle, you will then be victorious.”
Currencies compete against each other and their value may not reflect their true worth!
The Sterling Saviour: Why America’s Woes, Not Britain’s Brawn, Bolster the Pound
Across the pond, a curious spectacle unfolds. The British pound, battered and bruised for years, has suddenly found favour, flexing its muscles against the mighty dollar in December 2023. While headlines trumpet a resurgent Britain, let’s hold the Union Jack confetti for a moment. This newfound strength has less to do with Britannia’s biceps and more to do with Uncle Sam’s wobbly ankles.
UK business leaders and consumers need to peek beyond the celebratory bunting and understand the true story behind the pound’s ascent. It’s not solely a tale of British brilliance, but rather a reflection of America’s deepening economic and political quagmire.
Debt Avalanche: When Uncle Sam Gets Buried Under Bills
America’s national debt has ballooned to astronomical heights, surpassing a staggering $30 trillion. This mountain of red ink, fueled by years of government overspending and tax cuts for the wealthy, casts a long shadow over the US economy. It cripples the government’s ability to invest in crucial infrastructure and social programs, while simultaneously saddling future generations with a crushing burden.
This debt tsunami isn’t limited to Uncle Sam’s coffers. American consumers are drowning in their own ocean of debt, with student loans, mortgages, and credit card balances reaching record levels. This mountain of personal debt hampers economic growth, as consumers tighten their belts and reduce spending.
The Fragile Colossus: Cracks in the American Banking System
These anxieties spill over into the global financial system, impacting the dollar’s perceived safe-haven status. Investors, spooked by American financial fragilities, seek refuge in alternative currencies, including the pound.
Political Pendulum: When Washington Becomes a Wobbling Circus
American politics have become a spectacle of division and dysfunction. Hyper-partisanship and gridlock in Washington make it nearly impossible to address pressing issues like inflation, healthcare, and climate change. This political uncertainty breeds economic anxiety, further weakening the dollar’s allure.
In contrast, the UK, despite its own political challenges, appears relatively stable. Brexit anxieties have subsided, and a new Prime Minister offers a semblance of direction. This perceived stability, compared to the American political rollercoaster, makes the pound a more attractive proposition for some investors.
Britannia’s Balancing Act: Not All Roses and Tea
Let’s not paint a rosy picture for the UK either. Britain grapples with its own set of economic woes, including rising inflation, a labour shortage, and dependence on volatile global markets. The war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions further complicate the picture.
The Bank of England’s recent interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, could also dampen economic growth. A potential recession on the horizon would undoubtedly weaken the pound.
Navigating the Currency Crossroads: Cautious Optimism for UK Businesses and Consumers
So, where does this leave UK businesses and consumers? The pound’s recent strength offers a welcome respite, but it’s not a magic bullet. Businesses should exercise caution when making currency-dependent decisions, hedging against potential fluctuations. Diversifying markets and currencies can mitigate risk and ensure long-term stability.
For consumers, the stronger pound could translate to slightly cheaper imported goods and travel. However, inflationary pressures may offset these gains. Responsible budgeting and financial planning remain crucial, regardless of the pound’s performance.
In conclusion, the pound’s December surge is less a testament to British might and more a symptom of American malaise. A confluence of debt, financial fragility, and political uncertainty across the Atlantic has pushed investors towards the perceived relative stability of the UK. However, it’s vital to remember that Britain’s own economic challenges loom large.
For UK businesses and consumers, the message is clear: embrace cautious optimism. Enjoy the currency tailwind while it lasts, but prepare for potential choppy waters ahead. Focus on building resilience, diversifying risk, and making sound financial decisions, lest the tide turn once again. Remember, currency markets are a fickle beast, and the sun rarely shines eternally on any single shore.
The A Political Quagmire: Navigating Uncertain Seas in the US and UK
The year 2023 has painted a stark picture of political dysfunction in both the United States and the United Kingdom. In the US, a gridlocked Congress produced a meager 23 bills, a far cry from the legislative productivity expected from the world’s leading democracy. Across the Atlantic, the echoes of Brexit continue to reverberate, with the UK Parliament bogged down in endless debates instead of tackling the pressing economic challenges facing the nation. This grim reality poses a significant challenge for individuals and businesses in both countries, leaving them adrift in a sea of uncertainty.
The American Stalemate: A Congress in Paralysis
The 2023 legislative output of the US Congress stands as a testament to the deep partisan divide currently gripping American politics. Republicans and Democrats seem locked in a perpetual tug-of-war, more interested in scoring political points than finding common ground. This has resulted in a legislative drought, leaving crucial issues like healthcare reform, infrastructure development, and climate change unaddressed.
For individuals, this political paralysis translates into a sense of disillusionment and a feeling of being forgotten by their elected representatives. The lack of progress on key issues like healthcare affordability and student loan debt directly impacts their lives, while the inaction on climate change raises anxieties about the future. Meanwhile, businesses face an unpredictable regulatory environment, hindering investment and economic growth.
Navigating the Labyrinth: What Americans Can Do
In the face of this legislative inertia, individuals and businesses must become the architects of their own destinies. Here are some strategies to navigate the American political quagmire:
Engage constructively: Reach out to your representatives and express your concerns and priorities. Support organizations that advocate for issues you care about and participate in peaceful protests and demonstrations.
Vote strategically: Research the candidates in your local and national elections and vote based on their track record and policy positions. Consider candidates who demonstrate a willingness to compromise and work across the aisle.
Focus on local politics: Engage with your local community and participate in local elections. Local governments often have a significant impact on daily life, and your involvement can make a real difference.
Support civic engagement initiatives: Encourage and educate others about the importance of political participation. Promote initiatives that foster civil discourse and bridge the partisan divide.
Brexit’s Bitter Aftermath: UK’s Economy Lost in the Fog
While the US suffers from congressional gridlock, the UK grapples with the fallout of Brexit. The 2016 referendum, which saw a narrow vote to leave the European Union, has plunged the nation into a protracted political and economic crisis. Parliament remains embroiled in endless debates about the terms of the withdrawal agreement, with little progress made on addressing the concerns of businesses and citizens regarding trade, immigration, and the future of the National Health Service.
For individuals, Brexit has brought uncertainty about jobs, wages, and access to essential goods and services. Businesses face complex bureaucratic hurdles and the potential for reduced market access. The ongoing political turmoil erodes confidence in the economy and dampens investment, further hindering growth.
Charting a Course Forward: How the UK Can Steer Out of Troubled Waters
To emerge from this quagmire, the UK needs a renewed focus on pragmatism and national unity. Here are some potential pathways forward:
Prioritise the economy: Parliament must shift its focus from Brexit minutiae to addressing the immediate concerns of businesses and citizens. Policies that stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and support vulnerable communities are essential.
Seek common ground: Political parties must find ways to cooperate and compromise on key issues.Collaborative leadership that transcends partisan divides is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.
Foster open dialogue: The government must engage in transparent communication with the public, clearly explaining the implications of various Brexit scenarios and seeking feedback on potential solutions.
Invest in education and skills training: Equipping the workforce with the necessary skills to thrive in the post-Brexit landscape is crucial for long-term economic success.
Promote international cooperation: Building strong relationships with other countries, both within and outside of the EU, will be essential for securing trade deals and fostering economic opportunity.
A Common Challenge, Different Solutions
While the political landscapes of the US and UK differ significantly, the challenges they face share a common thread: a lack of effective governance and a disconnect between elected officials and the people they represent. To overcome these hurdles, both nations must rediscover the spirit of compromise, prioritise the needs of their citizens and businesses, and embrace pragmatism over ideology.
The road ahead will undoubtedly be challenging, but by staying informed, engaging constructively, and holding their leaders accountable, individuals and businesses can play a vital role.
Some bank shares are still more than 90% off their peak pre 2008 financial crisis so there is no such thing as “safe as money in the bank”!
The Inflationary Storm: Are Cryptos Your Lifeboat?
A dark cloud hangs over the global economy. Whispers of recession turn into shouts, and governments, desperate to keep the ship afloat, resort to the familiar mantra: fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing. But what does this mean for your hard-earned money? Enter cryptocurrencies: a digital life raft in a sea of potential devaluation.
As a currency and economics expert, I’m here to navigate these choppy waters. Today, we’ll explore the potential for crypto as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. We’ll dive into the economic storm, examine the limitations of traditional safeguards, and assess whether venturing into the crypto realm could be your best bet.
The Looming Devaluation:
Governments and central banks worldwide have injected trillions into their economies since the pandemic. This, coupled with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, is fuelling an inflationary fire. Fiat currencies, backed by nothing but government promises, are losing their purchasing power. A loaf of bread that cost $2 yesterday may cost $2.10 tomorrow, silently eroding your savings and future.
Traditional Safe Havens Fail:
Historically, gold and other precious metals have been go-to hedges against inflation. But their limited supply and physical constraints don’t cater to everyone’s needs. Real estate or property, another traditional option, suffers from high entry barriers and illiquidity.
This is where cryptocurrencies enter the picture. With their decentralised nature, limited supply, and global reach, they present a new, albeit volatile, option.
The Crypto Advantage:
Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies,many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin,have a predetermined cap on their supply. This scarcity helps limit inflation and potentially increases their value over time.
Decentralisation: Cryptocurrencies aren’t subject to the whims of governments or central banks. Their decentralised networks offer a buffer against devaluation policies used to stimulate economies.
Global Accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can access and trade cryptocurrencies, regardless of location or financial standing. This democratises wealth management and opens doors to previously excluded individuals.
Store of Value: While their volatility often grabs headlines, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have exhibited long-term value appreciation. Their potential to act as a digital gold, a secure store of value in a turbulent economy, is undeniable.
The Risk Factor:
However, venturing into the world of cryptocurrencies isn’t without its risks:
Volatility: The crypto market is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing wildly, making them potentially unsuitable for risk-averse individuals.
Regulation: The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is still evolving, creating uncertainty and potential for government intervention.
Security: Crypto wallets and exchanges have been targets for hackers, highlighting the importance of choosing secure platforms and practicing safe storage methods.
Navigating the Crypto Waters:
So, should you dive into the crypto ocean as a hedge against devaluation? The answer depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a safe haven, traditional options like gold might be better suited. However, if you have the risk appetite and are willing to do your research, cryptocurrencies could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.
Remember, diversification is key. Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket. Start with a small allocation, understand the risks involved, and invest only what you can afford to lose.
For Business Leaders:
Explore crypto’s potential as a payment option:Accepting cryptocurrencies can attract tech-savvy customers and expand your reach.
Educate your employees: Equip your team with the knowledge they need to understand and potentially utilise cryptocurrencies.
For Consumers:
Do your research: Understand the different types of cryptocurrencies and their underlying technologies before investing.
Diversify your portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.
Start small: Invest only what you can afford to lose, and remember the market is volatile.
Choose secure platforms: Store your cryptocurrencies in reputable wallets and exchanges.
Cryptocurrencies present a fascinating blend of opportunity and risk in the face of potential fiat currency devaluation. While not a guaranteed solution, they offer a novel approach to securing your financial future. Remember, knowledge is power in this realm. Educate yourself, assess your risk tolerance, and make informed decisions to weather the coming economic storm. The crypto lifeboat might just be the key to staying afloat in the inflationary seas ahead.
Who will be your landlord in future and what does it mean in the short and long term?
The Rise of Institutional Homeownership: Will Banks Become Your Landlord?
The traditional image of a homeowner – an individual or family purchasing a property for personal use – is undergoing a significant shift in the United Kingdom. Enter the institutional investor, specifically banks like Lloyds, venturing into the single-family home market on a grand scale. This trend, while nascent, poses intriguing questions about the future of housing affordability, rents, and the very nature of homeownership in the UK.
Banks as Landlords: A New Game in Town
Driven by factors like low interest rates, a perceived hedge against inflation, and the potential for stable rental income, institutional investors are increasingly eyeing the residential property market. Lloyds Bank, the UK’s largest mortgage provider, stands as a prime example. In 2021, they partnered with the housebuilder Taylor Wimpey to acquire thousands of newly built homes for rental purposes. This move isn’t isolated; similar initiatives are underway across the pond in the US, with major players like Blackstone and Goldman Sachs amassing vast portfolios of single-family homes.
Impact on Housing Prices: A Double-Edged Sword
The immediate impact of institutional buying on house prices is a complex issue. On the one hand, their deep pockets could inject significant capital into the market, potentially driving up prices, particularly in desirable locations. This could exacerbate affordability concerns, especially for first-time buyers already struggling with rising costs.
On the other hand, some argue that institutional investors might act as a stabilising force, purchasing excess inventory during market downturns and preventing price crashes. Additionally, their focus on energy-efficient, modern homes could contribute to long-term improvements in the housing stock.
Ultimately, the net effect on prices will depend on various factors, including the scale of institutional buying, government policies, and broader economic trends.
Rents on the Rise? Not So Simple Either
While the prospect of institutional landlords might raise concerns about rent hikes, the reality is likely to be more nuanced. Firstly, these investors are primarily interested in long-term, stable returns, which incentivises them to offer competitive rents to attract and retain tenants. Additionally, regulations like rent control measures could play a role in curbing excessive rent increases.
However, concerns remain. The sheer volume of homes owned by institutions could give them significant market power, potentially allowing them to exert upward pressure on rents, particularly in areas with limited housing options. Moreover, the focus on professional property management might lead to a less personal and potentially less responsive landlord-tenant relationship compared to traditional setups.
The Long View: Redefining Homeownership
The long-term implications of this trend are far-reaching. A future with a significant portion of homes owned by institutions could fundamentally alter the concept of homeownership in the UK. Traditional homeowner aspirations, centred around property ownership and wealth accumulation, might give way to a renter-centric model, where stability and affordability become the primary concerns.
This shift could have profound social consequences, potentially impacting wealth distribution, community dynamics, and even political landscapes. It’s crucial to have open and informed discussions about the potential benefits and drawbacks of this new paradigm, ensuring that policies and regulations are in place to protect tenants and safeguard a healthy housing market for all.
Beyond the Numbers: Humanising the Equation
In the rush to analyse statistics and market trends, it’s important to remember that housing is more than just an investment or a commodity. Homes are where families build memories, communities thrive, and lives unfold. As we navigate this changing landscape, it’s essential to keep the human element at the centre of the conversation. We must ensure that this new wave of institutional ownership doesn’t come at the cost of affordability, stability, and the very essence of what makes a house a home.
The rise of institutional homeownership presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for the UK. While it holds the potential to boost the housing market and offer stability, it also raises concerns about affordability, renter rights, and the long-term social impact. As we move forward, careful consideration, informed policy decisions, and a focus on human needs are crucial to ensure that this new chapter in UK housing benefits everyone, not just the bottom line of institutional investors.
Stop Predicting Mishaps and Build a Fortress: Managing Resilience in Uncertain Times
The world outside your boardroom window is a tempestuous ocean. Unforeseen tides roll in, stormy winds whip up, and unpredictable leaders steer their own vessels with varying degrees of… competence. As business leaders, we’re tempted to focus on these external fluctuations, squinting into the distance, trying to divine the next political misfire, economic tremour, or environmental upheaval. We spend countless hours crafting intricate contingency plans for every conceivable dystopian scenario – all while neglecting the most critical factor in our control: building a resilient business.
Instead of exhausting ourselves predicting the machinations of our “great leaders,” let’s shift our gaze inward. Let’s focus on what we can control: fortifying our own organisations. Let’s become architects of resilience, crafting businesses that thrive amidst chaos, bounce back from adversity, and emerge stronger from the stormiest seas.
Redefining Resilience: Beyond Crisis Planning
Resilience isn’t just about weathering a crisis. It’s about adapting, evolving, and even profiting from unexpected challenges. It’s about building an organisation that doesn’t merely survive the punches, but thrives on the throws. To achieve this, we need to move beyond reactive crisis planning and embrace a proactive, holistic approach to resilience.
The Pillars of a Resilient Business:
Foundational Stability: A resilient business starts with a rock-solid foundation. This means solid financial management, robust infrastructure, and a clear understanding of your core competencies and value proposition. Ensure your financial house is in order, with diversified revenue streams and adequate reserves to weather unexpected downturns. Invest in critical infrastructure, from IT systems to supply chains, ensuring redundancy and adaptability. Know your strengths and weaknesses inside-out, and focus on what you do best – outsourcing non-core functions to agile partners.
Agile & Adaptive Culture: Rigid organisations crumble under pressure. Cultivate a culture of agility and adaptability where employees are empowered to make decisions, take risks, and experiment. Encourage open communication, cross-functional collaboration, and continuous learning. Embrace diverse perspectives and foster a “fail fast, learn fast” mentality. Bureaucracy breeds stagnation; agility nurtures resilience.
Innovation Engine:Disruption is the new normal. Stay ahead of the curve by fostering a culture of innovation. Invest in research and development, encourage creative problem-solving, and reward out-of-the-box thinking. Be open to new technologies, business models, and market opportunities. Turn uncertainty into an opportunity to innovate and differentiate yourself from the competition.
Risk Management Mindset: While we shouldn’t obsess over predicting specific external events, a proactive risk management framework is crucial. Identify potential threats, assess their likelihood and impact, and develop mitigation strategies. Regularly review and update your risk assessments, and ensure effective communication and training around risk management protocols. Be prepared, but don’t get paralysed by fear of the unknown.
Stakeholder Trust & Engagement: Trust is the mortar that binds an organisation together. Cultivate strong relationships with employees, customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders. Be transparent in your communication, proactive in addressing concerns, and responsive to their needs. A network of trust enables your organization to weather storms together, with everyone aligned towards a common goal.
Driving Business Goals With Resilience as Your Fuel:
Building resilience isn’t about neglecting your objectives. It’s about ensuring you achieve them despite, and even because of, external turbulence. A resilient business is a proactive business, one that anticipates change and turns it to its advantage. By focusing on internal strengths and adaptability, you position yourself to seize opportunities amidst disruption, navigate uncharted waters, and emerge as a leader in the new landscape.
Remember, the next leader’s blunder, economic downturn, or natural disaster is inevitable. Stop squinting into the fog and get to work building your ark. Invest in internal strength, agility, and innovation. Forge a culture of resilience, and watch your business weather any storm while achieving its intended destination. By focusing on what you can control, you turn uncertainty into opportunity and become the captain of your own destiny, no matter who’s steering the world around you.
Fools gold or once in a lifetime opportunity in 2024?
The Crystal Ball of Crypto: Predicting Spot ETF Acceptability and Market Impact in 2024
The nascent world of cryptocurrencies has been on a rollercoaster ride, its trajectory heavily influenced by regulatory decisions, particularly when it comes to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Spot ETFs, tracking the underlying price of a crypto asset directly, promise to unlock unprecedented mainstream access and potential legitimisation for this new asset class. With multiple applications currently under review in various countries, the question remains: Where will these applications land? And what does it mean for cryptocurrency valuations in 2024? Predicting the future is always precarious, but by analysing current trends, regulatory landscapes, and industry sentiment, we can paint a picture of potential scenarios.
The Global Regulatory Landscape: Shades of Gray across Borders
The regulatory landscape for crypto assets, and Spot ETFs by extension, remains fragmented and diverse. Different countries approach the issue with varying degrees of receptiveness and caution. Let’s take a peek into some key regions:
North America: The US, the world’s largest financial market, has been notoriously hesitant. Despite numerous applications, the SEC hasn’t approved any Spot ETFs yet, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, recent developments like BlackRock’s application and a court favouring Grayscale’s case signal a potential shift towards approval in 2024. Canada, on the other hand, has already approved several Spot ETFs, setting a precedent for the region.
Europe:Europe has taken a more pragmatic approach, with Germany approving its first Spot ETF in 2021. Several other European countries are actively considering applications, with Switzerland and France potentially following suit in 2024. However, stricter regulatory frameworks like MiCA could impose additional hurdles.
Asia: The picture in Asia is complex. Hong Kong, known for its financial openness, recently broke new ground by approving its first Spot ETF, the CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF. This marks a significant departure from the stance of mainland China, which has banned individual crypto trading entirely. Meanwhile, Japan, after initial apprehension, has recently approved a Bitcoin futures ETF, potentially paving the way for further developments.
Predicting the Domino Effect: Acceptance Scenarios and their Impact
Based on these regional variations, let’s consider three potential scenarios for Spot ETF acceptance by the end of 2024:
Scenario 1: The Dam Breaks Open
A wave of approvals sweeps across major markets like the US, Canada, and several European countries. This scenario, fueled by growing institutional interest and industry pressure, could trigger a surge in demand for crypto assets, driving up valuations significantly. Increased liquidity and accessibility could attract new investors, further amplifying the bull run. This scenario, however, also carries risks, as rapid price climbs could be followed by sharp corrections if regulatory crackdowns or technological limitations arise.
Scenario 2: A Measured Waltz
Acceptance occurs but at a controlled pace. Regulators take time to carefully vet applications, prioritising robust safeguards and investor protection. This scenario would result in a gradual rise in valuations without the intense volatility of Scenario 1. New investors would enter cautiously, ensuring a more sustainable growth trajectory. However, this also means the full potential of Spot ETFs would be realised over a longer timeframe.
Scenario 3: The Cold Shoulder
Regulatory hurdles persist, with major markets like the US remaining hesitant. This scenario would keep the crypto market confined to its current niche, hindering mainstream adoption and limiting valuation growth. However, it could also foster further innovation within the crypto ecosystem, driving development towards greater decentralisation and security.
Beyond the Crystal Ball: The Unknowns and Opportunities
Predicting the future of crypto valuations is an intricate dance with numerous variables. Even the most robust analysis must acknowledge the presence of unforeseen black swans: unforeseen regulatory shifts, technological breakthroughs, or major market events. However, regardless of the specific scenario that unfolds, Spot ETFs are destined to be a game-changer for the crypto landscape. Increased institutional involvement, improved access, and potential regulatory legitimacy will undoubtedly have a profound impact on valuations, shaping the trajectory of this emerging asset class in 2024 and beyond.
As investors navigate this new frontier, it’s crucial to stay informed, manage risks responsibly, and remain adaptable to the ever-evolving nature of the cryptoverse. The crystal ball may be blurry, but the potential of Spot ETFs shines brightly, illuminating a future where mainstream adoption and institutional acceptance could propel cryptocurrencies into the heart of the global financial system.
Trying to take wokeness out of key business risk management threats and opportunities
Can Economic Migrants Be the Recessionary Storm’s Lifeline? A 2024 Outlook for UK and USA
As storm clouds gather on the economic horizon, recessionary whispers turn into anxious roars in both the UK and the USA. In this tumultuous climate, a fascinating question emerges: Could economic migrants potentially act as a life raft, mitigating the damage of a potential recession in 2024?
As an expert economic analyst ( Keith Lewis ), I delve into this intricate issue, dissecting the potential role of economic migration in weathering the coming economic storm in these two major economies.
Buoying the Economy in Rough Seas:
Several arguments propose that economic migrants can serve as a buffer against recessionary forces:
Labour force resilience: With skilled and willing newcomers filling critical labour gaps, particularly in sectors facing shortages, economic migrants can bolster productivity and output. This can stabilise the economy and counteract downward trends, as evidenced by the contribution of migrant workers to sectors like UK healthcare and US agriculture.
Demand lifeline: By injecting fresh purchasing power into the economy, migrants can stimulate businesses and create jobs. This can boost aggregate demand, a crucial driver of economic recovery, as research by the OECD suggests with increased migration boosting GDP growth in several European countries.
Innovation anchor: Migrants often bring a wealth of entrepreneurial spirit and skills, driving business creation and innovation. This can foster economic growth and generate employment opportunities, potentially alleviating recessionary pressures, as demonstrated by the significant role of immigrants in US startup ecosystems.
Fiscal stability: As migrant workers contribute through income taxes and payroll deductions, they can bolster government revenue streams. This can provide crucial budgetary resources for social programs and infrastructure investments, helping governments navigate and mitigate the impact of a recession, as analyses in the UK suggest regarding the positive fiscal contribution of immigration.
However, navigating these turbulent waters necessitates caution:
Wage suppression: An influx of migrant workers can put downward pressure on wages,particularly for low-skilled jobs.This can dampen consumer spending and exacerbate inequalities, hindering overall economic growth, as studies in the US have shown in specific sectors.
Social tensions: Large-scale migration can strain social services and resources, potentially leading to public anxieties and fueling xenophobia.This can make it politically challenging to maintain open borders, even with potential economic benefits, as witnessed in the current political climates of both the UK and the USA.
Integration hurdles: Successful integration of migrants into the workforce and society is crucial for maximising their economic contribution. Language barriers, cultural differences, and lack of recognition of foreign qualifications can hinder integration, limiting the positive economic impact of migration. Robust policies promoting skill recognition and language training are essential to overcome these hurdles.
Navigating the Choppy Waters of 2024:
Assessing the evidence requires acknowledging the complexities of this issue. Studies on the direct link between economic migration and recessionary tendencies remain inconclusive, with varying results depending on factors like the skillsets of migrants, existing labour market conditions, and government policies. A tailored approach, considering specific national contexts, is crucial.
Charting the Course in 2024 and Beyond:
To leverage the potential benefits of economic migration while mitigating potential drawbacks in 2024 and beyond, both the UK and the USA can consider the following:
Skill-based migration strategies: Prioritising the entry of migrants with skills in high demand to address labour shortages and boost productivity, ensuring a win-win for both businesses and the economy.
Effective integration programs: Investing in language training, skills recognition, and cultural orientation programs can facilitate smooth integration, maximising the positive economic contribution of migrants and fostering social cohesion.
Robust social safety nets: Ensuring adequate social services and resources for both native and migrant populations can mitigate potential tensions and prevent economic hardship during a recession.
While economic migrants cannot entirely prevent a recession, they can potentially play a crucial role in minimising its impact and expediting economic recovery. However, it is essential to acknowledge the complexities and potential challenges associated with migration. Openness to talent, coupled with responsible management, integration efforts, and data-driven policymaking, can harness the potential of economic migration to navigate the choppy waters of 2024 and build resilient economies for the future. Remember, weathering economic storms requires a balanced approach, embracing the potential of diverse resources while ensuring responsible and inclusive practices.
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In this article, we will explore the top 10 supply chain management trends that are expected to shape the industry in 2024 and beyond. These trends encompass technological advancements, strategic approaches, and evolving consumer demands that will redefine the way supply chains operate.
1. Digital Supply Chain As the Backbone of Resilience
The digital supply chain has emerged as the overarching trend driving supply chain transformation. It encompasses the integration of digital technologies, such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data analytics, to streamline operations, enhance visibility, and optimise decision-making.
Organisations are moving away from traditional paper-based processes and siloed systems towards a connected and data-driven supply chain ecosystem. This digital transformation is enabling businesses to gain real-time insights into their operations, predict disruptions, and respond proactively to changing market conditions.
2. Big Data and Analytics Driving Insights-Driven Decisions
Big data and analytics are playing a crucial role in extracting valuable insights from the vast amounts of data generated across the supply chain. Organisations are leveraging data analytics to identify patterns, optimise inventory management, improve demand forecasting, and enhance customer service.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming supply chain operations by automating tasks, enhancing decision-making, and enabling predictive insights. AI applications are being used to automate repetitive tasks, such as data entry and order processing, freeing up human workers to focus on more strategic initiatives.
AI is also being used to optimise warehouse operations, manage transportation routes, and personalise customer experiences. AI-powered forecasting models are improving demand prediction accuracy, reducing inventory costs, and ensuring product availability.
4. Supply Chain Investments: Balancing Systems and Talent
Investment in supply chain systems and talent is essential for building a resilient and adaptable supply chain. Organisations are investing in modern supply chain management software, cloud-based platforms, and data analytics tools to enhance their technological capabilities.
Alongside these technological investments, organisations are also prioritising the development of their supply chain workforce. This includes providing training on digital technologies, fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making, and attracting and retaining top talent.
5. End-to-End Visibility, Traceability, and Location Intelligence
End-to-end visibility, traceability, and location intelligence are becoming increasingly important for supply chain transparency and risk management. Organisations are implementing technologies such as RFID tags, sensors, and IoT devices to track goods throughout the supply chain, from origin to delivery.
This real-time visibility enables businesses to monitor product quality, identify potential disruptions, and proactively address issues. It also enhances customer satisfaction by providing real-time tracking information and delivery updates.
6. Disruption and Risk Management: Embracing Agility and Resilience
Supply chains are facing an increasing number of disruptions, from natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts to technological advancements and changing consumer demands. Organisations are shifting their focus from traditional disaster recovery plans to proactive risk management strategies.
Building a resilient supply chain involves identifying potential risks, assessing their impact, and implementing mitigation strategies. It also requires the ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and respond to disruptions in a timely and effective manner.
7. Agility and Resilience: Adapting to Changing Demands
Consumer expectations are constantly evolving, and organisations must adapt their supply chains to meet these demands. Customers are demanding faster delivery times, more personalised products, and greater transparency.
Supply chains need to be agile enough to respond to these changing demands, quickly introduce new products, and personalise customer experiences. This requires a flexible and adaptable supply chain infrastructure that can accommodate rapid changes.
Supply chains are increasingly becoming targets for cyberattacks, as they represent a critical component of global commerce. Organisations are prioritising cybersecurity measures to protect their supply chain assets and prevent disruptions caused by cyberattacks.
Cybersecurity strategies include implementing robust access controls, educating employees on cybersecurity risks, and regularly monitoring supply chain systems for potential threats.
9. Green and Circular Supply Chains: A Sustainable Future
Green supply chains are focusing on resource efficiency.
10. Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS): A Strategic Lever for Flexibility
Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS) is emerging as a strategic lever for organisations seeking flexibility and efficiency in their supply chain operations. SCAaS involves outsourcing non-core supply chain functions to specialised providers, allowing organisations to focus on their core competencies.
SCaaS providers offer a range of services, including logistics, transportation, warehousing, and inventory management. This allows organisations to access expertise and resources without the burden of managing these functions in-house.
Conclusion
The supply chain landscape is undergoing a period of rapid transformation driven by technological advancements, evolving consumer demands, and the need for resilience. Organisations that embrace digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies will be well-positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.
The top 10 supply chain management trends on the horizon in 2024 highlight the critical role of technology, data, and strategic partnerships in building resilient and adaptable supply chains. By embracing these trends, organisations can optimise their operations, enhance customer satisfaction, and achieve sustainable growth.
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BRICS Expands to 11 with Admission of 6 New Members
The BRICS bloc of developing nations has expanded to 11 with the admission of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The decision was made at the 15th BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24, 2023.
The expansion of BRICS is seen as a major step in the bloc’s efforts to reshuffle the global order. The bloc’s members represent over 40% of the world’s population and 25% of the global economy. With the addition of the six new members, BRICS will become even more diverse and influential.
The new members of BRICS bring a variety of strengths to the bloc. Argentina is a major agricultural exporter and has a strong manufacturing sector. Egypt is a regional power in North Africa and the Middle East. Ethiopia is a rapidly growing economy with a young and dynamic population. Iran is a major oil producer and has a strategic location in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter and has a powerful military. The United Arab Emirates is a financial and trade hub in the Middle East.
The expansion of BRICS is likely to have a significant impact on the global economy and geopolitics. The bloc is now better positioned to challenge the dominance of the United States and other Western powers. It is also likely to play a more active role in global affairs, such as climate change and trade.
The decision to expand BRICS was not without controversy. Some critics have argued that the bloc is becoming too large and unwieldy. Others have expressed concerns about the human rights records of some of the new members. However, the leaders of BRICS have dismissed these concerns, arguing that the bloc is committed to promoting democracy, development, and peace.
The expansion of BRICS is a major development that is likely to have a significant impact on the global order. The bloc is now well-positioned to play a more prominent role in global affairs. It will be interesting to see how BRICS evolves in the years to come.
The Significance of the New BRICS Members
The admission of six new members to BRICS is a significant development that has the potential to reshape the global order. The new members, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, bring a variety of strengths to the bloc, including their large populations, growing economies, and strategic locations.
The addition of these countries will make BRICS more diverse and representative of the global community. It will also give the bloc a stronger voice in international affairs. BRICS is now well-positioned to challenge the dominance of the United States and other Western powers.
The new members of BRICS also have a number of shared interests. They are all developing countries that are seeking to grow their economies and improve the lives of their citizens. They are also all concerned about the rise of protectionism and unilateralism in the global economy.
The expansion of BRICS is likely to have a number of positive implications for the global economy. It will create new opportunities for trade and investment, and it will help to promote economic development in the developing world. It will also make the global economy more resilient to shocks and crises.
The expansion of BRICS is also likely to have a positive impact on global geopolitics. The bloc is now better positioned to play a more active role in resolving conflicts and promoting peace. It is also likely to be more effective in addressing global challenges such as climate change and terrorism.
Overall, the expansion of BRICS is a positive development that has the potential to make the world a more prosperous and peaceful place. It is a sign that the developing world is rising to challenge the dominance of the West.
The Challenges Facing BRICS
While the expansion of BRICS is a positive development, it also faces a number of challenges. One challenge is that the bloc is now so large and diverse that it may be difficult to reach consensus on important issues. Another challenge is that some of the new members have poor human rights records. This could damage the reputation of BRICS and make it more difficult for the bloc to achieve its goals.
Despite these challenges, BRICS has the potential to be a force for good in the world. The bloc can help to promote economic development, peace, and stability in the developing world. It can also help to challenge the dominance of the West and create a more just and equitable global order.
The future of BRICS is uncertain, but it has the potential to be a major player in the global arena. The bloc will need to overcome its challenges and learn to work together effectively if it is to achieve its full potential.
BRICS Summit August 2023
The 15th BRICS summit will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa on 22-24 August 2023. The theme of the summit is “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism”.
The summit will be attended by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as representatives from other BRICS countries and partner nations. The agenda for the summit is expected to include discussions on a range of issues, including:
The global economic outlook and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Trade and investment
Climate change and sustainable development
Regional cooperation
International security
Business leaders around the world can expect the BRICS summit to have a significant impact on the global economy. The BRICS countries are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, and they are increasingly playing a leading role in global trade and investment. The summit is likely to provide a platform for the BRICS countries to discuss their shared economic interests and to coordinate their efforts to promote economic growth and development.
In addition to the economic agenda, the BRICS summit is also likely to address a number of other issues that are of interest to business leaders. These include:
The development of new technologies and their impact on the global economy
The need for greater cooperation between businesses and governments to address global challenges
The importance of sustainable development and the need to protect the environment
The BRICS summit is a major event that will have a significant impact on the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
In addition to the economic agenda, the BRICS summit is also likely to discuss the issue of membership expansion. More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, and the summit could provide an opportunity for the BRICS countries to discuss the criteria for membership and to make a decision on whether to expand the group.
The inclusion of new members would strengthen BRICS and make it a more powerful force in the global economy. However, it is important to note that there are also some challenges associated with membership expansion. For example, it would be important to ensure that new members are committed to the BRICS principles and that they are able to contribute to the group’s work.
Overall, the 15th BRICS summit is a major event that will have a significant impact on the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
Here are some additional details about the theme of the 2023 BRICS summit and the countries that want to join BRICS:
The theme of the 2023 BRICS summit, “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism”, reflects the growing importance of Africa to the BRICS countries. Africa is home to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, and the BRICS countries are keen to increase their trade and investment ties with the continent.
The countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS include: Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan. These countries are all looking to gain access to the BRICS market and to benefit from the group’s economic and political influence.
The BRICS summit is a significant event that has the potential to shape the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
BRICS Currency Pros and Cons
The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – are some of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. To further boost their economic cooperation, the idea of creating a common currency for these countries has been floated for several years. In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of a BRICS currency for these countries.
Pros of a BRICS currency:
Improved trade relations: One of the main advantages of a common currency is that it can increase trade between BRICS countries. By eliminating the need for currency conversion, transactions between these countries can become smoother and faster. This can lead to greater trade volume and a stronger economic relationship between the BRICS nations.
Reduced transaction costs: A common currency would reduce the costs of currency conversion and cross-border transactions. This would make it easier and more cost-effective for businesses in the BRICS countries to trade with each other, which could increase economic growth and create new opportunities for trade and investment.
Increased economic stability: A common currency would provide more stability for the economies of the BRICS countries. By reducing the volatility of currency exchange rates, businesses would be able to better plan for the future and make more informed decisions. This could lead to increased investment and economic growth in the BRICS countries.
Greater financial integration: A common currency would foster greater financial integration between the BRICS countries, making it easier for them to access each other’s financial markets. This could lead to increased cross-border investment and the development of new financial products and services.
Cons of a BRICS currency:
Political difficulties: The creation of a common currency would require significant political cooperation and coordination between the BRICS countries. This could be difficult to achieve, as each country has different political and economic systems and priorities.
Economic differences: The economies of the BRICS countries are at different stages of development, and some are more advanced than others. This could make it difficult to maintain a common currency, as the economies of the BRICS countries may evolve at different rates and in different directions.
Lack of monetary independence: By adopting a common currency, the BRICS countries would give up their monetary independence and would no longer be able to use monetary policy to address their own economic challenges. This could limit their ability to respond to economic shocks and difficulties.
Need for significant structural reforms: To make a common currency work, the BRICS countries would need to undertake significant structural reforms to ensure that their economies are compatible with each other. This could be a long and difficult process, and there is no guarantee of success.
In conclusion, the idea of a BRICS currency has both potential advantages and drawbacks for the BRICS countries. While it could lead to greater economic cooperation, stability, and growth, it would also require significant political cooperation, structural reforms, and give up monetary independence. Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to adopt a common currency will depend on a careful consideration of the pros and cons, and a willingness to work together towards a common goal.
Unlocking the Potential: The Pros and Cons of a BRICS Currency for Global Business Leaders
A business plan for non-BRICS country businesses to protect and grow their business in or with BRICS countries should include the following steps:
Market research: Conduct thorough market research to understand the economic and political conditions, cultural differences, and consumer preferences in each of the BRICS countries. This will help you tailor your business strategy to each market.
Localisation: To succeed in a foreign market, it is essential to localize your business operations. This includes adapting your products and services to the local market, localising your marketing and branding efforts, and building local partnerships.
Local partnerships: Building local partnerships with suppliers, distributors, and customers is critical to success in the BRICS countries. This will help you overcome challenges such as language barriers, cultural differences, and regulations.
Risk management: Doing business in foreign countries comes with inherent risks, such as currency fluctuations, political instability, and economic uncertainty. To mitigate these risks, it is important to have a robust risk management plan in place. This can include currency hedging, insurance, and contingency planning.
Cultural sensitivity: To succeed in the BRICS countries, it is important to understand and respect the local culture and customs. This includes adapting your communication and business practices to local norms, and avoiding cultural missteps that could harm your reputation.
Compliance: Each of the BRICS countries has its own unique regulations and legal requirements. It is important to understand and comply with these regulations to avoid costly penalties and legal disputes.
Continuous monitoring: Doing business in foreign countries requires ongoing monitoring and adaptation. Keep track of market trends, political and economic conditions, and consumer preferences in each of the BRICS countries to ensure that your business is positioned for success.
By following these steps, non-BRICS country businesses can protect and grow their business in the BRICS countries, taking advantage of the tremendous economic opportunities that these markets offer.
What do BRICS countries want to export and import
The BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are among the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. As such, they have a diverse range of exports and imports. Here’s a general overview of what each of these countries tend to export and import:
Brazil: Brazil is a major exporter of commodities such as iron ore, soybeans, petroleum, and coffee. It imports a range of goods including machinery, electronic equipment, vehicles, and chemicals.
Russia: Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and natural gas, as well as other commodities such as metals and timber. It imports a variety of goods including machinery, electronics, and consumer goods.
India: India is a major exporter of textiles, pharmaceuticals, and information technology services. It imports a range of goods including machinery, crude oil, and precious metals.
China: China is the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods, including electronics, machinery, and textiles. It imports a range of goods including crude oil, raw materials, and food products.
South Africa: South Africa is a major exporter of precious metals such as gold and platinum, as well as other commodities such as coal and iron ore. It imports a range of goods including machinery, vehicles, and chemicals.
It’s important to note that the exports and imports of each of these countries can be influenced by a range of factors, including domestic and global economic conditions, trade agreements, and government policies. Nevertheless, these countries play an important role in the global economy and their exports and imports are closely watched by businesses and governments around the world.
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The price of a share does not tell you the value of a business. The type of business valuation is key in decision-making. What business valuation you are assessing will depend on why you are making a point of valuing a business:
The value of a business an employee will want will depend on why the employee is working for a business. Some employees live from pay cheque to pay cheque and regard the business to be worth merely the value of pay received each month or week. Other employees see a business as a stepping stone to next career progression and value the business reputation in the marketplace rather than a monetary value will be of more importance. Other employees want to be fully engaged in the mission of the business and need to be kept fully onboard with business plans to place positive value in the business.
Investors traditionally have sought capital appreciation, income or both from their investment in a business. Anything that detracted from profit or revenue generation may not have been welcomed. The proliferation of the Woke Society, if you are ungenerous or socially responsible if kinder, means that ethics social responsibility and good governance (ESG) has meant that many investors want better holistic enterprise risk management (ERM) performance. New jobs have even been created at board level to reflect this, such as Chief Impact Officer responsible for every process that generates any kind of social and environmental impact (as defined by the company’s mission and values).
Customers are valuing businesses differently. Many more consumers use their spending power to punish poorly managed businesses in field of ESG or ERM, and reward businesses performing well in the ESG or ERM arena. We used the word arena deliberately as ESG or risk management in general is now often used as a show pony or window dressing when in reality the business is performing badly in the real world of managing all business risks well.
Business leaders will respond to regulation of their business but in the heavily regulated world of financial services, for example, we still find yearly evidence of poor risk management by banks despite nearly two decades passing from the time the banks nearly sent the whole world tumbling over the abyss to total societal collapse due to the banks regulators and politicians failing to manage business risks holistically well in 2008.
Scanning Horizon For Business Threats and Opportunities
Many are frightened that the next 12 to 24 months will see a long period of economic depression due to failure to manage risks well
Think inflation is bad now – you ain’t seen nothing yet! A food shortage will result in millions starving in 3rd world countries and hyper food inflation in 1st world countries. We are not going to starve but we are going to pay for poor business and economic risk management.
The share price of many businesses over the next couple of years are going to collapse. However, the same businesses value will not have fallen, just the share price. Investors including the person in the street through pensions will see the value of their retirement fund drop off a cliff. Employees will lose their pay cheque to pay cheque existence as many will lose their job. Consumers will pay more for the same or poorer products and services. What are you going to do to protect yourself?
Employees need to keep to keep abreast of the health of their employers business. They may even be wise to pick a different employer who is stronger if they can assess which businesses are strong and which businesses are weak.
Investors maybe better out of the marketplace, or keep up with regular investing. It is counter intuitive. However few can pick the moment of a bear market turning into a depression. The only good thing about a depression is that it will be a good time to invest! Likewise no one can identify the bottom of a market. One solution is to get out of the market but the other is to invest through the depression to get the benefit of the lows to compensate for the loss of the highs.
Consumers need to diversify to protect themselves from loss of money in one area. Cash is king just now. However globally governments are even destroying the value of cash in more ways than one! Real wealth is having enough money to pay for your lifestyle without needing to work, for as long as possible. You may outwardly have money but wealth is measured in financial freedom not in currency or other assets. The value of many perhaps most assets is set to fall.
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Businesses must be able to benefit from change. We explore the importance of adapting to change in a business. What are the benefits of change in the workplace. Changes in business can be necessary due to external and internal business risk factors. Not all change has to be major. Small incremental changes, combined, can be more effective and beneficial to your business than giant leaps. Constant major changes can also be counterproductive.
What are the negative effects of change in business?
What are the positive effects of change in business?
Learn how to embrace change and innovation in your company.
Today’s organisation’s must embrace change to survive and prosper. Ensure your business has a culture of looking at change as an opportunity to improve not something to fear or resist. Explain the importance of accepting change positively to your employees and customers.
Employees will develop new skills which will make them more valuable to you but also more valuable in the marketplace.
Employees will have new opportunities to be more creative in alignment with new business objectives so both can navigate choppy market conditions.
Employees will become more engaged with and committed to your business as their ideas will help grow the business and their role within the business.
Sell the benefits of a constantly changing business to your employees so they can help you not run away from your business.
We look at why change is important. Explain the importance of accepting change positively. Not forgetting both the negative and positive effects of change in the workplace. Control the negative effects of change while enhancing the positive effects of change.
Embracing change means embracing failure. Not all changes will be successful. However if employees feel that their ideas and failure of ideas will be accepted without recrimination and even rewarded, you will find the gems in the rough that will boost your business development.
You need and plan and a process to filter the ideas. Your plan needs to engage all levels of your organisation not just the management team.
Embracing change will help your business find and develop new ideas and opportunities to grow faster. Change in business is inevitable so why not embrace it positively at all times to get the best out of it and mitigate anything bad about change. Embracing change is essential for the future success and growth of your business so adopting a culture and a habit of embracing change will supercharge your growth. Change will no longer threaten your survival in business.
What are the benefits to customers when a business changes?
Adapt your business and embrace change to benefit old and new customers. A culture of embracing change and a process for managing risks of change will lead to more satisfied customers as well as more engaged workforce.
Much innovation is born out of necessity – for example during times of war. The COVID period maybe our time of war. It as certainly led to the worst economic period for several hundred years including from two world wars. What we can learn from Abandoned Engineering on Yesterday Channel is that our forefathers have invested incredible amounts of money and energy in ideas that failed for various different reasons. If you want your business to be resilience regardless of the economic environment you need to adopt the right risk management strategy to give your business the best chance of surviving in all economic weather. We may think we have been unlucky. However, all previous generations have had their challenges. Our challenge is to be innovative, creative and resilient no matter what is thrown at us.
The opportunities for increasing retail-based business income remain huge for innovative retailers looking to the future not to return to past
Surely we are not going to swing from fastest economic growth to economic depression?
Business Strategy During Recession
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How do you recession-proof your business?
How can we protect from inflation?
How to prepare for inflation at home?
The impact of recession on businesses is severe. However inflation can be the precursor of a recession. Central banks are charged with the responsibility of keeping inflation under control partly to ward against recession or depression. Healthy inflation is generally regarded as 2 percent. Many countries are experiencing at least 3 times healthy inflation. Some key economies are experiencing much more than that just now. In other words the biggest economies are suffering from very unhealthy inflation levels. Most central banks have not responded fast enough and should gave started increasing interest rates earlier to control inflation. Some have not even started to control inflation. The long-tail effect of increasing interest rates means that for next 6 months at least inflation will remain out of control. The war in Ukraine may even mean inflation is uncontrollable for years. Out if control inflation leads to a recession at best and depression at worst!
Now is not the time to pat yourself on the back. Surviving pandemic was good, but the next existential threats to your business are already here or rushing towards you.
Rising inflation means that consumers and business decision-makers have the same money but it doesn’t go as far as it once did. The end result is that they buy fewer products and services. Inflation is a driver of a recession. Back to back crisis’s caused by pandemic, war, fuel, energy, fertiliser and food shortages or rising prices could result in extended global recession that turns into a global depression. The global pandemic caused the deepest recession since the Second World War and the world has used all its tools, including record low interest rates and extended Quantitative Easing QE, to scramble back out of the recession. However it means the world is particularly vulnerable just now – with economic risk management tools exhausted or trying to recover.
What Can Governments Do To Reduce Inflation
Reducing Inflation Strategies
Inflation is the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It can be caused by a variety of factors, including rising costs of production, increased demand for goods and services, and monetary policy decisions made by central banks.
Governments can take several measures to reduce inflation, including:
Monetary policy: Central banks can raise interest rates to curb inflation. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Fiscal policy: Governments can reduce government spending and increase taxes to slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Price controls: Governments can impose price controls on certain goods and services to keep prices from rising too quickly. However, this can lead to shortages and reduced incentives for producers to supply goods and services.
Supply-side policies: Governments can take steps to increase the supply of goods and services, such as by investing in infrastructure and education, and by reducing regulations that limit the ability of firms to produce goods and services.
Flexible exchange rates: Governments can allow their currency to fluctuate in value against other currencies. A stronger currency will make imports cheaper and can help to reduce inflation.
Price stability target: Central banks and governments can jointly agree on a target for inflation, and use monetary and fiscal policy to achieve that target.
It’s important to note that reducing inflation is not always the best course of action for an economy. Sometimes, a moderate level of inflation can be beneficial for economic growth, especially in developing countries. It’s important for governments to weigh the costs and benefits of different policies to reduce inflation and make the best decision for their economy.
Many central banks have an inflation target of between 2 percent and 3 percent – seen has healthy level of inflation
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In conclusion, governments have several tools at their disposal to reduce inflation, including monetary and fiscal policy, price controls, supply-side policies, flexible exchange rates, and price stability target. However, it’s important to consider the costs and benefits of each policy before implementing them.
Strategies for business survival during a recession
Businesses fold quickly during a recession. Before you know it, you are losing both suppliers and customers. Both can damage your business and even threaten an otherwise successful business survival. Set a Key Performance Indicator KPI to help you monitor your risk management in this area of your business. A Key Control Indicator KCI could be that no more than 10 percent of your key supply’s come from any single supplier. Likewise a KCI could be that no more than 10 percent comes from a single customer. If you stick to your KCI then the failure of any one customer or supplier is not going to pull your business down with their failure to manage recession risk.
What you set your KCIs at will vary depending on your financial strength, type of industry and current resources. You may never hit your KCIs but they flag up when action is needed or your progress towards better recession risk control.
Expanding your customer base is not just about expanding your business. It is about protecting your business from loss of business. Expanding your suppliers could increase the overall cost of supply during good times thereby limiting your profit. Your management team needs to decide what level of risk you are exposed to, the type of risks and your appetite and resilience to risk.
We are moving from pandemic survival to rapid business development. If you focus your energy on growing your business faster organically with new customers you can ride the economic wave through the various threats to your business.
Just before a business falls flat on its face it can seem that the world was its oyster! The world seems to be dragging itself out of the economic damage of a global pandemic. We are seeing economic expansion at or near record rates across the world. Wages are rising and many countries have unfilled job vacancies galore! What could go wrong? Answer is out of control inflation turning into a recession and high unemployment.
The world has shot its bolt. Due to the economic impact of the global pandemic central banks have slashed interest rates to the bone and in a few cases into the bone! There is no wiggle room left to cope with another economic disaster. Trouble is nobody told our political leaders and they have led us into the next economic disaster on back of an inflationary crisis on back of war, food crisis and energy crisis. You wait for a financial crisis to come around every 10 years then several come along at once!
Inflation may have given you a good opportunity to inflate your prices. The good times are slipping away. Your pricing model may have brought in easy money that will be useful. Times are changing and you may think that new opportunities are appearing for business growth.
Stay on top of your business changing needs:
Profits are cut due to rising costs due to inflationary pressures. Make sure you focus on market prices to seize opportunities appearing in your marketplace. Instead of raising your prices think about reducing your costs or making your offering more attractive to new customers.
Cash is king now! Take steps to improve or maintain cash flow. Pay later and get paid quicker.
Win new customers. Make sure you your marketing and sales development budget is working hard for you.
As interest rates rise there will be bargains. Minimise your outgoings. Reduce your overheads.
Hopefully you took advantage of cheap money. However the days of cheap money have passed or are passing. Now is the time to think about paying off debt. The rising cost of debt could pull down countries never mind companies! Make sure your business is not wasting profit on back of your cost of debt. Controlling your costs will help you to be more competitive in tightening marketplace.
World central banks need to act more quickly and more aggressively to calm inflation rates around the world to prevent a global recession and perhaps even global depression from 2023 onwards. This includes increasing interest rates and increasing interest rates in bigger leaps and bounds.
A healthy level of inflation is generally considered to be around 2% per year.
Why 2 percent?
2% inflation per year is considered healthy because it allows for some economic growth while still maintaining stability in the purchasing power of money. It is a rate that is low enough to prevent rapid changes in the cost of goods and services, but high enough to encourage investments and borrowing. However, the specific level of inflation that is considered healthy can vary depending on a country’s economic conditions and goals.
Who thinks this?
The idea that 2% inflation is a healthy level is widely accepted among central banks and economists. This is because it provides a balance between stable prices and economic growth, and has been found to be compatible with low unemployment and stable financial markets in many countries. The Federal Reserve in the United States, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, among others, target an inflation rate of around 2%.
How do you reach this target?
Central banks use a variety of tools to reach their inflation target. The most common method is through the manipulation of interest rates. By adjusting interest rates, central banks can influence borrowing costs, which in turn can affect spending and investment decisions. This can then influence the overall level of demand in the economy, which affects prices.
In addition to interest rates, central banks can also use other monetary policy tools, such as buying and selling government securities in the open market, to reach their inflation target.
In some cases, central banks may also use forward guidance, where they provide information about their future plans for interest rates, to influence market expectations and help reach their inflation target.
It’s worth noting that hitting an exact inflation target can be challenging, and central banks may sometimes miss their target due to various economic and financial factors outside of their control.
Is inflation transitory?
Protecting your business from risk of recession and inflation
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There has been no lack of imagination or invention from people around the world. There has been a lack of entrepreneurship. The big boys have sucked up too much of the investment. People have played it very safe since the financial crisis in 2008. However we feel that the entrepreneurial environment is about to explode in a positive way.
If trade wars around the world particularly between USA China can be resolved then everyone will benefit. It will unblock pent up investment.
Money is actually sloshing about but in safe havens awaiting the right environment to be unleashed. In addition it is historically incredibly cheap to borrow lots more money.
Why is money not being used more productively? Fear! People were burned during the 2008 financial crisis that we are just hauling ourselves out of. If governments around the world invest on infrastructure the future is bright. If trade wars are resolved the future will be even brighter!
The people who act first tend to be the people who reap the rewards of taking risks. If you have a good business idea now is the time to act before someone else does.
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The Damaging Consequences of Overprinting Money
Overprinting money is the act of a government or central bank creating new currency units without a corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services. This can lead to a number of negative consequences for the global economy and businesses, including:
Inflation: Inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates: In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Overprinting money can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead to an increase in speculation and volatility in asset prices. This can make it difficult for businesses to raise capital and operate effectively.
Reduced trust in government: When governments resort to overprinting money to finance their spending, it can lead to a loss of trust in the government. This can make it more difficult for governments to raise taxes and borrow money in the future.
The negative consequences of overprinting money are not limited to the global economy. Businesses can also suffer a number of negative consequences, including:
Increased costs: When inflation rises, businesses may have to increase their prices in order to cover their costs. This can lead to a decrease in demand for their products or services.
Decreased profits: If inflation outpaces revenue growth, businesses may see their profits decrease. This can make it difficult for businesses to invest and grow.
Increased risk: When the value of the currency is unstable, businesses face increased risk. This is because they may not be able to predict how much their costs or revenues will increase in the future. This can make it difficult for businesses to make long-term plans.
Loss of market share: If businesses are unable to keep up with inflation, they may lose market share to competitors who are able to pass on higher costs to consumers.
The negative consequences of overprinting money can be severe and far-reaching. It is important for governments and businesses to be aware of these risks and to take steps to mitigate them.
What are the negative effects of reducing money supply?
Increasing credit crunch risk due to lack of money supply or unaffordable borrowing costs
Reducing the money supply can also have negative consequences for the economy. This is because it can lead to a decrease in economic growth, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in asset prices.
When the money supply is reduced, it becomes more expensive for businesses to borrow money. This can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in unemployment, as businesses are less likely to hire new workers when it is more expensive to borrow money.
In addition, a decrease in the money supply can lead to a decrease in asset prices eg house prices, stock market shares, etc. This is because when there is less money in circulation, people are less likely to bid up the prices of assets. This can lead to losses for investors who own assets, such as stocks and property.
What are the disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy?
The disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy include:
Inflation: As mentioned earlier, inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates: In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Excess money in circulation can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead
Understanding Economic Indicators For Effective Risk Management
Economic indicators are statistics that provide information about a country’s economic performance and outlook. They are used by businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic indicators. It measures the value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders. A growing GDP is generally seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a decline in GDP can indicate a recession.
Another important economic indicator is the unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. A low unemployment rate is usually seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a high unemployment rate can indicate weakness.
Inflation is another important economic indicator. It measures the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. High inflation can indicate that an economy is overheating, while low inflation can indicate weakness.
Interest rates are also an important economic indicator. Central banks use interest rates to control inflation and stabilise the economy. Higher interest rates can slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, while lower interest rates can stimulate growth by making borrowing cheaper.
Economic indicators can also be divided into leading, lagging, and coincident indicators. Leading indicators tend to change before the economy as a whole changes, and can provide early warning signs of an impending recession or recovery. Lagging indicators, on the other hand, tend to change after the economy as a whole changes, and can confirm the onset of a recession or recovery. Coincident indicators tend to change with the economy as a whole and tend to reflect the current state of the economy.
Effective risk management involves staying informed about economic indicators, understanding their significance, and using them to make informed decisions. By monitoring economic indicators, businesses and investors can anticipate changes in the economy and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, Economic indicators are important tools for understanding the current state and future prospects of an economy. By monitoring key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, businesses and investors can make informed decisions and effectively manage risk.
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Not just shops! Just shopping on the High Street is no longer enough for the consumer nor the High Street. We have to be a bit smarter more innovative and put into action a more radical approach to delivering what people want from the High Street now.
The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less
Britains High Streets have a bright future if entrepreneurs business leaders and local planners are a bit smarter
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The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less if we work at building a better future for the High Street in UK.
Retail therapy is still important to many but the High Street can do so much more for the local community
Retail experts have a role to play on the High Street in the UK. They need to be a bit more imaginative creative and innovative to deliver a High Street fit for the future. Selling stuff is no longer enough. Entrepreneurial retailers will sell experiences night and day.
The notice of the Death of the High Street is premature!
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The 4th Industrial Revolution is upon us. For some it will be a plague but for others it’ll will be a feast.
Every day you can find multiple great ideas that could potentially disruptive the current way of doing things. My favourites at the moment are flying modes of transport that could easily replace vehicles that have to travel on roads and flying machines that briefly go to space to get to their destination quicker. They may seem like far off technological developments, but the technology works now. Its flight rules and regulations that will hold them back to protect carmakers and airplane makers not technology risks.
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Your brand maybe vulnerable to others who have been thinking differently, or from changes to the marketplace. It may fail cause your performance ain’t good enough, or because your competitors change the rules of the game.
How you fail may not matter too much after you’ve failed. It will be too late to consider what you are doing wrong. Kodak didn’t want to change when they had to change to survive. They were making too much money from photographs to change to embrace digital photography. Market changes can kill the best businesses.
The best form of defence is often attack
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