Guidance on enterprise risk assessment process from BusinessRiskTV
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Risks are an inevitable part of being in business. How you assess and manage business risks may dictate the success of failure of your business. What is the impact of risks on your business?
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Whether you accept avoid transfer mitigate risks or exploit risk opportunities is not straight forward. Find new ways to improve the culture of risk management to boost business performance. Increase your business success.
How do you manage risks?
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Sometimes we have to accept the risks our businesses face to achieve our goals. Taking no action to control the risks does not mean you have not managed the risk. It means you have identified and assessed it and proactively choose to accept it as the risk is within your risk tolerance and appetite for risk.
The other extreme is that you avoid the risk identified. The risk is beyond your risk tolerance and appetite for risk to pursuance of your business objectives.
Developing a balanced risk management action plan is not easy but it should be simple to work well.
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Taking the right steps to manage risks will boost your business performance with less uncertainty.
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Strategic risk decision making in financial services industry is not complicated but it is complex. Reduce the complexity to what matters to your business in the financial services sector.
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Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.
In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.
Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder
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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.
Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.
Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.
Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.
The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. ItalianChinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in EuropeAsia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.
Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.
A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.
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Globally Empty Office Buildings and Commercial Property Creating Debt Collapse, Systemic Threat to Banking System Worldwide
The COVID-19 pandemic and central banks response – overprinting of money out of thin air – has had a devastating impact on the global economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than in the commercial real estate sector. As businesses have been forced to close or operate remotely, millions of square feet of office space have been vacated, leaving office buildings empty around the world.
This has led to a sharp decline in property values, and many commercial real estate owners are now facing significant financial losses. In some cases, these losses have become so severe that they have forced property owners to default on their loans, which could have a ripple effect throughout the global banking system.
Who Has the Most Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
The financial institutions that have the most exposure to commercial real estate are those that specialise in lending to businesses and developers. These institutions include commercial banks, investment banks, regional banks in USA and insurance companies.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, commercial banks worldwide have about $20 trillion in outstanding loans to commercial real estate borrowers. This represents about 10% of all bank lending globally.
Investment banks and insurance companies also have significant exposure to commercial real estate. Investment banks, for example, often underwrite and market commercial real estate bonds, which are a type of debt security that is backed by the income generated from rental properties. Insurance companies, on the other hand, often invest in commercial real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are companies that own and operate income-producing properties.
Are Banks in Danger?
The sharp decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns that banks could be in danger of suffering significant losses on their loans to commercial real estate borrowers. In some cases, these losses could be so severe that they could force banks to default on their own debts, which could lead to a systemic financial crisis.
However, it is important to note that banks have a variety of tools at their disposal to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. For example, banks can sell off their commercial real estate loans to other investors, or they can take steps to restructure the terms of these loans. At the same time if the sea level is going down for all banks in real estate debt crisis will there be enough saviours?
In addition, the government can also play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market. For example, the government can provide financial assistance to banks that are struggling with commercial real estate losses, or it can provide tax breaks to businesses that are considering moving back into office space. At the same time this is inflationary and may result in even higher interest rates – problem delayed but worsened thereby extending and increasing length of recession creating depression.
How Many Office Buildings Are Empty in the US?
According to a recent survey by the commercial real estate firm CBRE, about 15% of office space in the United States is currently vacant. This represents about 250 million square feet of empty office space.
The vacancy rate is highest in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. In these cities, the vacancy rate is often above 20%.
The vacancy rate is also high in some smaller cities and towns. For example, the vacancy rate in the city of Detroit is currently over 30%.
These, official, vacancy rates seem lower than real levels other agencies produce and anecdotally.
Why Are the Banks in Trouble?
The banks are in trouble because they have lent too much money to commercial real estate borrowers. When these borrowers default on their loans, the banks are left holding the bag.
The banks are also in trouble because the value of their commercial real estate assets has declined. This decline in value has made it more difficult for the banks to sell these assets, and it has also reduced the amount of collateral that they have available to secure their loans.
The banks are also facing increased competition from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and hedge funds. These non-bank lenders are often willing to lend money to commercial real estate borrowers at lower interest rates than the banks.
Conclusion
The global pandemic has had a devastating impact on the commercial real estate sector, and this has led to significant financial losses for banks and other financial institutions. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as more and more businesses continue to operate remotely. If it gets worse it will be a very long time – decades – before it gets better!
The government will need to play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market, and banks will need to take steps to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. If these steps are not taken, the global banking system could be in danger of a systemic crisis.
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Managing Risk in Financial Services
Managing Risk in the Ever-Evolving Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry is a complex and dynamic sector that plays a vital role in the global economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including banking, insurance, investment management, and more. However, with the constant changes and uncertainties in the business landscape, managing risk has become a critical aspect of the financial services industry. In this article, we will explore the challenges and best practices of managing risk in the ever-evolving financial services industry.
The Changing Landscape of the Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry has gone through significant changes over the years, driven by various factors such as technological advancements, regulatory reforms, economic fluctuations, and changing customer preferences. These changes have brought new opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in this industry.
One of the significant changes in the financial services industry is the increasing reliance on technology. The digital revolution has transformed the way financial services are delivered and consumed. Fintech companies have emerged, leveraging technology to disrupt traditional financial services providers. This has resulted in increased competition and the need for traditional financial institutions to adapt and innovate to stay relevant.
Another change in the financial services industry is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies around the world have implemented stringent regulations to safeguard consumers and ensure financial stability. These regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States and the MiFID II directive in the European Union, have increased compliance requirements for financial services firms. Non-compliance can result in severe penalties and reputational damage, making effective risk management essential.
Economic fluctuations also impact the financial services industry. Economic downturns can lead to increased credit risk, market volatility, and liquidity challenges, while economic upturns can present growth opportunities. As the global economy becomes increasingly interconnected, events in one part of the world can have ripple effects on financial markets globally, making risk management more complex and critical.
Lastly, changing customer preferences and behaviors have also impacted the financial services industry. Customers now demand personalized and convenient financial services, with a focus on transparency and trust. This has led to a shift in business models, with a greater emphasis on customer-centricity and digital engagement. Firms need to understand customer preferences and manage reputational risk to maintain customer trust and loyalty.
Challenges in Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry
The evolving landscape of the financial services industry has brought about several challenges in managing risk effectively. Some of the significant challenges include:
Increasing Complexity: The financial services industry is highly complex, with numerous products, services, and processes. Risk managers need to understand the intricacies of various financial instruments, business models, and regulatory requirements to identify and manage risks effectively.
Changing Regulations: The regulatory landscape is constantly evolving, with new regulations being introduced and existing ones amended. Financial services firms need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure compliance, which requires significant resources and expertise.
Cybersecurity Risks: The increasing reliance on technology has also exposed the financial services industry to cybersecurity risks. Cyber threats, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, can result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, political instability, and sanctions, can have significant impacts on the financial services industry. These events can affect global markets, currencies, and investment portfolios, leading to increased volatility and risk exposure.
Reputation Risk: Reputation is crucial in the financial services industry, and any damage to reputation can have severe consequences. Negative public perception, loss of customer trust, and regulatory scrutiny can all result in significant financial and operational impacts.
Operational Risks: The complex and interconnected nature of the financial services industry also presents operational risks. Operational failures, such as system outages, processing errors, and human errors, can disrupt business operations, cause financial losses, and harm reputation.
Risk of Financial Crime: Financial services firms are also exposed to risks related to financial crime, including money laundering, fraud, and corruption. These risks can arise from internal or external sources and can result in regulatory penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Risk from Emerging Technologies: The rapid pace of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrency, presents both opportunities and risks for the financial services industry. Firms need to understand the risks associated with emerging technologies and implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate them.
Best Practices for Managing Risk in the Financial Services Industry
Given the challenges and complexities of managing risk in the financial services industry, it is essential for firms to adopt best practices to effectively mitigate risks. Here are some key best practices for managing risk in the financial services industry:
Develop a Robust Risk Management Framework: Financial services firms should establish a comprehensive risk management framework that includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting. This framework should be integrated into the firm’s overall strategy, operations, and decision-making processes.
Embrace a Risk Culture: Establishing a strong risk culture is critical for effective risk management. It involves fostering a culture where risk awareness and accountability are embedded in the organisation’s values, behaviours, and practices. This includes promoting open communication, risk transparency, and learning from mistakes.
Stay Abreast of Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is heavily regulated, and firms need to stay updated with the latest regulatory changes that impact their operations. This includes understanding the implications of regulatory changes, ensuring compliance, and engaging with regulators proactively.
Enhance Cybersecurity Measures: Given the increasing cybersecurity risks, financial services firms should implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect their systems, data, and customer information. This includes regular cybersecurity assessments, employee training, and incident response plans.
Diversify Risk Management Strategies: Financial services firms should adopt a diversified approach to risk management. This includes diversifying investments, customers, and markets to reduce concentration risk. It also involves using risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and derivatives to mitigate risks.
Conduct Comprehensive Due Diligence: Financial services firms should conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering into any business relationships, such as partnerships, acquisitions, or investments. This includes assessing the financial stability, reputation, and compliance of potential business partners to mitigate counterparty risk.
Implement Robust Compliance Programs: Compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should establish robust compliance programs that include policies, procedures, and controls to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and internal policies.
Invest in Technology and Data Analytics: Technology and data analytics can play a significant role in enhancing risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should invest in advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, to identify, assess, and monitor risks effectively.
Continuously Monitor and Update Risk Management Strategies: Risk management is an ongoing process, and firms should continuously monitor and update their risk management strategies to adapt to changing business and market conditions. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and making necessary adjustments as needed.
As the financial services industry continues to evolve, managing risk has become more critical than ever. Firms operating in this industry face various challenges, including increasing complexity, changing regulations, cybersecurity risks, geopolitical risks, reputation risk, operational risks, risk from emerging technologies, and risk from financial crime. However, by adopting best practices such as developing a robust risk management framework, embracing a risk culture, staying abreast of regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and safeguard their operations, reputation, and financial stability.
It is crucial for financial services firms to recognize that risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process that requires constant attention and adaptation. By proactively identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, firms can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential risk events and ensure their long-term sustainability.
In addition, fostering a strong risk culture within the organisation is essential for effective risk management. This involves creating an environment where risk awareness and accountability are valued, and employees at all levels are encouraged to report risks and concerns without fear of reprisal. A robust risk culture promotes open communication, transparency, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement.
Furthermore, leveraging technology and data analytics can greatly enhance risk management efforts in the financial services industry. Advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, can enable firms to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in vast amounts of data, allowing for more informed risk assessments and timely risk mitigation actions.
Lastly, financial services firms should stay updated with the latest regulatory changes and engage with regulators proactively. Regulatory requirements are constantly evolving, and firms need to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations to avoid penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage. Regular communication and collaboration with regulators can help firms understand the implications of regulatory changes and proactively address any potential compliance gaps.
In conclusion, managing risk is a critical aspect of operating in the financial services industry. With the increasing complexity and evolving landscape of this industry, firms need to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to risk management. By developing a robust risk management framework, fostering a strong risk culture, staying updated with regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and ensure their long-term success. It is imperative for financial services firms to prioritise risk management and make it an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. By doing so, they can safeguard their operations, protect their reputation, and maintain the trust of their customers and stakeholders in the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry.
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Proactively develop your own risk awareness impacting on your business objectives. Embrace the changing business environment and internal risk factors. Get really good at manage enterprise risks to set clearer path to success.
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Strong businesses adopt a proactive risk management approach with clear risk management strategy for success. Develop a more stable business with better relationships with all business stakeholders. Be prepared to take on best business opportunities.
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2008 should have been the watershed moment for the financial services sector and banking in particular to implement systemic changes to incorporate enterprise risk management principles and practices.
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Financial services companies have continued to bring to market products that have led to claims for compensation. Nonsense of putting the customer first is often uttered in the financial services sector.
The reality is that the financial services sector risk management culture is still systemically broken and it is likely to lead to the next financial crisis. A financial crisis comes along roughly every 10 years. As we look towards 2019 the next financial crisis is overdue.
How will the next financial crisis manifest itself? Not known. Will it happen? Almost certainly. Most countries have not fully recovered from the last financial crisis. Their economies are still very weak. Even the strong are comparatively weak. This means we may never recover from the next financial crisis and so should do more to make sure the next financial crisis is avoided or mitigated.
Most likely cause of the next financial crisis is the compounding and aggregation of financial risk.
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The last financial crisis grew and exploded from the productionisation of simple debt prototype ideas thought up by people who thought they were masters of the world. Despite the new false perception that after ten years we have now paid our dues we are in fact drowning in more unpaid debt than ever.
Unpaid debt will continue to be wrapped up in shiny new marketing material designed to protect the buyers from the toxicity of the core material. Piled high and sold cheap these debt instruments will be combined and recombined. The new for old debt products will build the tower that will be the start of the beginning of the end for many a business in the next financial crisis.
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Proactive management consulting. Develop proactive management strategies for your business. Develop more proactive management style with BusinessRiskTV. How do you proactively manage business risks better? Use a proactive enterprise risk management strategy to boost your business performance.
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The risk of enterprise failure increases with inadequate governance risk and compliance processes
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There are several techniques that can be useful for managing business rules in an organisation. Here are some recommendations:
Documenting business rules: One of the most important techniques for managing business rules is to document them in a clear and concise manner. This can include using a variety of formats such as decision tables, flowcharts, and natural language descriptions.
Centralising business rules: To avoid inconsistencies and duplication of effort, it is advisable to centralise the management of business rules. This can be done using a dedicated software tool or a repository that stores the rules and makes them accessible to relevant stakeholders.
Version control: It is crucial to keep track of changes to business rules over time, especially when multiple stakeholders are involved. Version control techniques such as branching and merging can help in managing changes to business rules.
Testing and validation: Business rules should be tested and validated thoroughly to ensure their accuracy and effectiveness. This can be done using a variety of techniques such as unit testing, integration testing, and user acceptance testing.
Auditing and monitoring: Regular auditing and monitoring of business rules can help to identify any potential issues or areas for improvement. This can be done using automated tools or through manual reviews.
Governance and ownership: Establishing clear governance and ownership of business rules is essential to ensure that they are being managed effectively. This can include assigning ownership to specific individuals or teams and establishing processes for reviewing and approving changes to business rules.
By following these techniques, organisations can effectively manage their business rules and ensure that they are aligned with their business objectives and regulatory requirements.
If you are responsible and accountable for key business decisions change your business decision making process to make quicker decisions with more confidence. Focus on the critical issues impacting on your business success or failure. Make the best decision possible with the most amount of available risk information.
Identify the critical risks impacting on your business objectives
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Reinvent your thinking. Reinvent the way you respond emotionally to risk.
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Choose a more certain more positive business risk management plan for your business.
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Adversity and failure can help you become more successful especially if you mitigate downside risk.
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Figure out what to watch to match your country risks or industry risks to maximise your business risk knowledge and business intelligence library. Pick the best original broadcasts for your business needs.
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Talk online to our business risk management experts to solve your business problems faster and for free. Change your established risk management habits to reduce uncertainty in business. There maybe other ways for you to achieve the success you desire. Find out on BusinessRiskTV. Act on our ideas for effective risk management and risk management leadership to build your business resilience.
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Regulatory compliance is an important part of business risk management but it should not be an accuse for a lack of simplicity or innovation.
Control the way you do things better without stifling or suppressing business growth. Indeed business risk management should create new business development opportunities and faster business growth. There does need to be appropriate levels of risk control protection and supervision but not at expense of business stagnation.
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How do leaders manage uncertainty in business better
Managing uncertainty is a daily business dilemma. Business leaders have internal and external risk factors driving uncertainty in business. Often this uncertainty can lead to poorer business performance or even catastrophic business failure.
We are developing a business risk management hub to help inform your leadership team. Reduce the impact of uncertainty on your business success.
Various risk management identification tools and techniques will bring emerging risks to your attention
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Leaders can manage uncertainty in various ways. Some bury their head in sand. Others adopt a belts and braces approach to risk control incurring imbalanced costs to benefits.
We can not guarantee you greater business success. We can help inform your business decision making process. You will be more likely to make better business decisions.
When facing doubts or uncertainty many business leaders turn to their gut instinct. Rolling the dice may turn up the result you are aiming for. This may work for you. However better risk management information may enable you to choose a different path. Or it may over procrastination to drive forward growth with more confidence. Not making a decision can be as bad as instinctively shooting off blindly.
Dealing with uncertainty better can help you navigate around pitfalls your competitors fall into. Help guide your business to greater success with less uncertainty. Manage uncertainty more cost effectively.
Leaders can use risk management principles and practices to take the next step towards success with more confidence.
Leaders can prepare themselves and their business to face the uncertain business environment to control threats and seize new business opportunities.
Leaders must learn to manage uncertainty better but they need not do this alone
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What are the main industry risk factors affecting your business success or failure today and tomorrow
Want to know more about the threats or opportunities within your industry?Need to develop your knowledge and skills at managing your industry risks? Find out more about industry risks management with BusinessRiskTV.
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Inform the way you think about your industry risks. Consider changes to the way you manage risk. Reduce the threats to your business. Open up new business development opportunities. Stay on top of key industry risk factors.
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Introducing the BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum
BusinessRiskTV industry risk management forum enables members to contribute to BusinessRiskTV. Active members around the world contribute articles and videos to help grow their business faster with less uncertainty to help inform readers industry business risk management decision making.
Boost your sales more profitably
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Protect your business uncertainty negatively impacting on your business
If you want an innovative flexible way to grow your business faster and build business resilience join and contribute to industry risk management forum today.
Members of the BusinessRiskTV business risk management club collaborate to reduce corporate threats and increase business growth opportunities through
business networking with key business decision makers locally and globally
improved risk assessment via better business intelligence
reduced cost of risk control via deals discounts and special offers
Build a more successful and sustainable business more easily with BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum.
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Join the BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum and receive FREE business risk alerts bulletins and latest business risk news to stay ahead of your competition.
The Forum is free to join. Then you choose whether you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV to promote your own business and inform online readers. You pay an annual membership fee to regularly contribute to BusinessRiskTV and promote your business interests cost effectively.
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Key benefits of BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum and reasons to join and contribute today
Free to join. There is no cost to join the forum. Once you join you also have the option of contributing to BusinessRiskTV to better market promote and advertise your business. In addition you will have increased access to discussions workshops and executive training to better protect your business. You are in control of what to do next after you join the club for free.
Free business intelligence to inform your decision making to build your business resilience. Forum members receive free news alerts and bulletins. Our risk watch service scans the horizon for emerging risks and analyses business risk trends. You can attend online discussions workshops and executive training sessions.
Safe and secure. All payments are made through Paypal an independent third party online payment service which stops us receiving full details of your banking or payment details so you are protected by Paypals security systems.
Build your online profile and connections to grow your business faster. BusinessRiskTV has an impressive online profile to connect you with local and global business risk management experts and new sales for your business.
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BusinessRiskTV has already built up an impressive bank of like minded business leaders and business risk management consultants for club members to tap into for business tips advice and support.
The BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum is carefully expanding its reach to help business leaders to better protect and grow their own businesses and careers.
BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum is NOT just a talking shop. It is a business growth hub to practically accelerate members revenue streams. It is business accelerator where everyone has the same interest in seeing the businesses build resilience regardless of economic environment.
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In addition to controlling your own business risks better you are in total control of how you use BusinessRiskTV and how much you want to contribute to it to increase your own business growth.
You are always in control of your subscription to BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum. You can choose to remain on the free membership and still receive free business intelligence and risk knowledge. Or you can regularly contribute to the content and thus increase your own business profile and business growth.
We are in it for the long term and look forward to working with members for sustainable mutual benefit. If you want to stop your membership you can at any time. We are looking forward to you working with us to help your business grow faster.
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Frequently Asked Questions FAQs
Is BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum free to join and how does BusinessRiskTV make money? It is free to join now to receive free alerts bulletins and business risk news. If you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV by becoming a Member you pay an annual fee. BusinessRiskTV also accepts donations to support free independent business risk management news broadcasting and business risk management research. In addition businesses pay us one off fees to promote market and advertise their business products and services.
Am I tied into the BusinessRiskTV Industry Risk Management Forum? It is free to join the forum. If you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV there is a membership fee. You are free to leave the club at anytime. You will not be entitled to a refund of the annual membership fee but will not be tied to renew your membership.
How long does membership last? 12 months renewable annually.
I do not know anything about online business marketing and development? That is one of the great strengths about being in the Industry Risk Management Forum. You simply join now and then we will email you to find out what you need to do to grow your business faster. We will then go away and start your marketing and promotion campaign. We will design post and update your contributions to promote your business. Our team of enterprise risk experts and business risk advisers help protect and grow your business faster.
How fast will my business grow? It is impossible to say. It depends on how well we can work together to get the most from your existing business development tools and initiatives. The potential is there for massive gains but the value of your membership fee could be worthless if we fail to work well together. That is why our members should always diversify our marketing options to maximise the likelihood of increasing sales. We will guide you on the diversification options based on our discussions on what you offer and when. You are not putting all your business development eggs in one basket but the affordable membership fee expands the likelihood of your business growing faster.
How often can my business contribute to BusinessRiskTV? Contribution levels is based on hours it takes to produce and publish each contribution. You will be buying 56 hours of work to produce and publish your contributions each year.
Does my business need to contribute regularly to BusinessRiskTV? No. The more you contribute the more you promote your own business interests and increase the chances of faster business growth.
My business marketplace is not in UK so can I still join and contribute to BusinessRiskTV? YES! The Club is open to any business selling legal and morally acceptable products and services. Legal is legal but morally acceptable comes down to our own opinion as to what is morally acceptable. Areas include Europe USA Canada Latin America Australia and Asia Pacific.
Is paying my membership fee safe? Yes. Your membership fee will be paid via Paypal a global independent payment provider who have their own safe and secure payment systems. We will never see your full payment details as these are retained by Paypal who will transfer your membership fee to our Paypal account.
What is the annual membership fee? This will vary depending on how many members we have. As the number of members increase so will the annual membership fee so get in quick to keep your membership fee low!
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All types of business risks under review with BusinessRiskTV.com
What types of business risk impact on your business objectives? Understand business risks and solutions. How can you manage all types of business risk better? Network with top risk management experts locally and globally to discover new ways to manage all type of business risk.
Latest news commentary and review of all types of key business risks
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BusinessRiskTV Key Business Risk Review will help you identify and control key business risks impacting on your business. We cover the main types of business risk.
It will help you to develop the best strategy for your business. Inform your own business decision making process to improve your business plan for greater success.
Tackle regulatory compliance with more confidence and less cost
Improve the effectiveness of your operation
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Know the key business risks impacting on your business objectives and understand how to manage the risks better.
Not all risks need to be managed. Some should just be identified assessed and accepted to achieve your business objectives. You need to consider the kinds of events that could pose a risk to your business and take steps to mitigate them. You also need to identify and assess new business opportunities so you deploy business assets for best return.
Examples of business risks under review
Strategic Risk. A competitor parking their business offering on your turf
Regulatory Compliance Risk. Changing health safety or environmental legislation or a new court case setting a new precedent.
Financial Risk, Changing interest rates creating new business opportunities or threats
Operational Risk. Fire taking out key production line plant or equipment.
Manage such risks better to reduce of lower than anticipated profits or increase the chance of higher profit and business growth.
Identify which business risks threatening your business or creating new business opportunities to achieve greater success
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BusinessRiskTV is exploring key business issues in UK and globally. We aim to help you to understand and manage business risks effectively so you are better placed to grow your business with more confidence. Prepare your business to withstand known and unexpected business risks.
Business is about taking risks. However taking more informed risks will help you achieve what you want for your business with more confidence.
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Risk management training providers work with BusinessRiskTV to promote their courses. The risk management training courses can be found in many parts of the world so find and compare one near you. Some risk management training courses are online and can be accessed from anywhere in the world with good WiFi connection. Learn to manage enterprise risk more effectively.
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Introducing the BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Club
BusinessRiskTV business risk management active members club enables members to contribute to BusinessRiskTV for free. Active members around the world contribute articles and videos to help grow their business faster with less uncertainty to help inform readers business risk management decision making.
Boost your sales more profitably
Increase your network of business contacts
Protect your business uncertainty negatively impacting on your business
If you want an innovative flexible way to grow your business faster and build business resilience join and contribute to BusinessRiskTV Club today.
Members of the BusinessRiskTV business risk management club collaborate to reduce corporate threats and increase business growth opportunities through
business networking with key business decision makers locally and globally
improved risk assessment via better business intelligence
reduced cost of risk control via deals discounts and special offers
Build a more successful and sustainable business more easily with BusinessRiskTV.
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Join the BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Club and receive FREE business risk alerts bulletins and latest business risk news to stay ahead of your competition.
The Club is free to join. Then you choose whether you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV to promote your own business and inform online readers. You pay an annual membership fee to regularly contribute to BusinessRiskTV and promote your business interests cost effectively.
Key benefits of BusinessRiskTV Risk Club and reasons to join and contribute today
Free to join. There is no cost to join the club. Once you join you also have the option of contributing to BusinessRiskTV to better market promote and advertise your business. In addition you will have increased access to discussions workshops and executive training to better protect your business. You are in control of what to do next after you join the club for free.
Free business intelligence to inform your decision making to build your business resilience. Club members receive free news alerts and bulletins. Our risk watch service scans the horizon for emerging risks and analyses business risk trends. You can attend online discussions workshops and executive training sessions.
Safe and secure. All payments are made through Paypal an independent third party online payment service which stops us receiving full details of your banking or payment details so you are protected by Paypals security systems.
Build your online profile and connections to grow your business faster. BusinessRiskTV has an impressive online profile to connect you with local and global business risk management experts and new sales for your business.
Join BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Management Club enter code #RiskClub
Fast Growing Local and Global Business Risk Management Connections
BusinessRiskTV has already built up an impressive bank of like minded business leaders and business risk management consultants for club meMbers to tap into for business tips advice and support.
The BusinessRiskTV Club is carefully expanding its reach to help business leaders to better protect and grow their own businesses and careers.
BusinessRiskTV Club is NOT just a talking shop. It is a business growth hub to practically accelerate members revenue streams. It is business accelerator where everyone has the same interest in seeing the businesses build resilience regardless of economic environment.
Join BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Management Club enter code #RiskClub
Founder of BusinessRiskTV Risk Management Club
Read Keith Lewis Testimonials as to the quality of his work. This gives some background as to the quality of the business risk management business intelligence being gathered and distributed.
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In addition to controlling your own business risks better you are in total control of how you use BusinessRiskTV and how much you want to contribute to it to increase your own business growth.
You are always in control of your subscription to BusinessRiskTV club. You can choose to remain on the free membership and still receive free business intelligence and risk knowledge. Or you can regularly contribute to the content and thus increase your own business profile and business growth.
We are in it for the long term and look forward to working with members for sustainable mutual benefit. If you want to stop your membership you can at any time. We are looking forward to you working with us to help your business grow faster.
Hands Free Business Growth and Development Of Your Business
One of the great strengths of the BusinessRiskTV business risk management club is that members do not need to know how to market their business online. You can simply email us the message you want to promote and we can connect you with more new potential customers or other business leaders.
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19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control
Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.
Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.
However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.
However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.
The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.
Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.
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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government
With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.
The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.
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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.
It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.
Prepare your business for all eventualities with our Brexit Marketplace.
20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit
A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.
Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.
Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.
12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority
30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production
Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.
23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension
Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.
An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?
The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.
It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.
Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.
If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.
9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events
Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.
By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.
25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely
Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.
Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.
The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.
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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.
Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.
this Parliament is a disgrace
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019
Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.
All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.
Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.
20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October
Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.
There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.
The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.
The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.
17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less
There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products
market researcher Kantar
5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September
UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.
If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.
There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.
4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced
Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.
Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.
4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?
The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.
Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.
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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.
The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.
1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them
The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.
1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012
Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.
5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham
JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.
It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.
In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.
1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.
NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.
NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.
It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.
21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!
The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!
Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.
The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one. The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.
Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU. The time for compromise has come to an end.
The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.
The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.
15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos
Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.
The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.
The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.
29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein
MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.
The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.
22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes
The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.
Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.
Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.
Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.
Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.
21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops
Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.
21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU
Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.
He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.
19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again
Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.
If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.
The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.
14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week
Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.
The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.
Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.
Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!
13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit
Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.
Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.
The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal
European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.
Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.
It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.
Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.
Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.
UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.
If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.
15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016
The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.
UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.
27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal
Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry
German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.
The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.
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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.
14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster
According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.
A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.
A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.
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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit
David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.
29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows
Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that bankinginsurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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