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Coronavirus hits the global economy on both the supply and demand side BusinessRiskTV.com
Coronavirus threats to world economy. Coronavirus global economy impact. The coronavirus has not yet be officially acknowledged as a pandemic health risk. However it probably is already a pandemic health risk and is certainly a global economic pandemic spreading uncontrollably around world.
Although the world financial markets have had their worst time since the financial crisis in 2008 the actual impact of the coronavirus has yet to be felt and revealed. The financial markets are giving a glimpse into what is feared in future not what is happening now.
With just 36 cases in the UK it appears that the UK is relatively spared from the virus. The most worrying case out of the 36 is the one where the infected person has not been abroad and has not been in contact with anyone who has to his or her knowledge. Tracing the source is key to controlling and containing the spread of the coronavirus.
Many countries where the official numbers of coronavirus infection cases are so low is worrying
There are many countries where scepticism on figures inflates fear of a pandemic that may not be recoverable. China where the coronavirus originated from may have be slow to unveil the seriousness of the problem have been praised by World Health Organisation WHO for honest figures.
Some countries have different reasons to deliberately suppress news of an epidemic in the country. In addition there are countries which may not have the resources to identify the coronavirus. More worringly they also do not have the resources to stop the spread of the virus.
Other disasters in some parts of the world also have the potential to exasperate and accelerate the spread of the virus. What happens if the coronavirus infects refugees and economic migrants trying to escape to Europe via ItalyGreece Bulgaria and Spain. Germany not long ago took around one million of these people. If such numbers flowed again and they also had the coronavirus how much more quickly would the coronavirus spread throughout Europe? Exponentially fast!
Control of coronavirus COVID19 is unlikely especially as there is no vaccine
A vaccine by most estimates is unlikely to be identified until early 2021. Even when a vaccine has been found it then has to be manufactured in sufficient quantities to have a reduction in the spread of the virus never mind eliminated.
The coronavirus is likely to be with us until end of 2021 at the earliest never mind getting coronvirus spread under control this year.
Major sporting events like the Olympics this summer are unlikely to proceed. Whilst this creates obvious disappointment for the athletes supports and Japanese people it in one event creates massive economic loss for Japan Olympic sponsors and lots of products or services will not be sold if the Olympics is cancelled.
Businesses will face reduced performance at best and potentially even collapse
If you are not able to sell products or services how do you pay fixed costs never mind variable costs of being in business. Potentially fatal could be loss of the ability to pay your creditors who may close you down to try to get their money back.
Central banks around the world have yet to realise they have not recovered from the financial crisis in 2008. Their tools to tackle global recession including lowering interest rate and increasing quantitative easing QE are worn out. There is little manoeuvrability for central banks. In COVID19 terms central banks do not have very good vaccines left at their disposal to support economic growth.
Individual countries will undoubtedly fall into a recession due to the coronavirus COVID19
Countries like Italy already severely impacted by coronavirus were already teetering on the edge of recession. The coronavirus will push them over the edge. The northern part of Italy is the powerhouse of the Italian economy and much of it has already been shutdown. Can Italy really stop the spread which will make economic impact worse?
Even countries like USA can dramatically lose economic growth. Not all Americans have good access to healthcare services. If you cannot call upon your healthcare services to detect and help control the coronavirus spread then it could spread like wildfire in USA if it takes hold and it is close to taking hold now.
The coronavirus spread in poorer less developed countries is essentially unstoppable. How can parts of Middle EastAfricaAsia Central America and South America really contain spread of coronavirus. The how do you contain the spread from these areas to more wealthy parts of the world.
The economic impact is going to be so severe as it hits not just the supply side of the economy it cuts demand too
When disaster strikes businesses can stop supplying cause the risk event stops output abruptly. However the coronavirus dramatically cuts demand quickly too. People stop assembly in public in restaurants events bars concerts sporting events etc through fear of catching the coronavirus. They may start spending again when under control but we are looking at end of 2021 before this even has possibility of subsiding.
Other concerns include lack of scientific knowledge about coronavirus. The boffins do not know enough yet to be sure we will ever get this under control.
We do not know how long the virus can survive on surfaces when people cough or touch surfaces with contaminated hands.
We do not know if our normal ways of cleaning surfaces works on coronavirus.
There have been suggestions that people who have had coronavirus in recent months and recovered then contract virus again. Potentially not only will infected people not be immune in future but then may not be cured in first place or regenerate virus.
Many people across the world including the UK will now be thinking they have a mild illness or seasonal flu when in fact they have COVID19. When it can be contained you are tracing contacts to track down infection line to control risks. However when COVID19 is spreading unencumbered mildly infected people will be spreading virus unknowingly and then 80 percent infection across the UK and world starts to become realistic.
We do not know if the warmer weather will help the world to control the spread of the virus like it did with SARS or whether it will continue to spread.
We do not know if COVID19 will morph into something worse or morph into something less virulent.
Some estimates suggest that 80 percent of people in UK will contract the coronavirus COVID19 if it spreads uncontrollably in UK. The UK could well be on cusp of uncontrollable spread as the UK government gears up to act this week. On the positive side 80 percent of those who contract the virus only get mild manageable symptoms. On negative side a fatal rate of even 1 percent of UK population is still around half a million deaths.
One way some countries may manage the coronavirus risk is simply to let it spread across the whole country without stopping business activity or economic growth. If 80 percent have mild symptoms and 1 percent die what is their tolerance of risks. Will they chose economic slowdown or losing 1 percent of their population? This could mean the rest of the world suffer boomerang epidemics. What could make this less likely is that leaders can die of the virus just like their peasants!
Safety at work and managing health and safety of your workforce
Employers have a duty to take reasonable steps to protect their workers. This includes protection from exposure to coronvirus. This has obvious implications about travelling to coronavirus hotspots but also includes the coronavirus coming to your workplace. The coronavirus could change forever how we do business in future. If and when the spread of the coronavirus is brought under control we may find it more sensible to have less contact face to face and more online communication.
Ocado in UK who deliver to more wealthy customers have already announced a jump in the number of people ordering online for food and drink delivery to home. This is just one example of winners as well as losers from COVID19 outbreak.
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We are in the foothills of the coronavirus pandemic. Yes it is a pandemic despite WHOs caution. How you manage the risks to your business will have limitations but where you can control the risks you must start implement your business continuity plan now not when when a full blown pandemic is sweeping across the world.
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Reduce supply chain risk. Should one supplier be shutdown for whatever reason your business should be able to continue without interruption. At the very least ensure you have alternative risk control measures to react to normal supply interruptions. The proximate cause of the supply chain disruption could be wide and varied including fire political social unrest natural disaster or even something called coronavirus. Assessing the risks from your supply chain is critical to the resilience of your business. Diversifying supply chain can increase costs but need not automatically follow.
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Supplier Diversification In Supply Chains
Critical Key Supply’s Should Be Manufactured In Your Own Country More To Mitigate Breaking Supply Chain To Your Business
EU leaders last month stressed the need for the bloc to have strategic autonomy after the coronavirus crisis.
The European Union and its companies need to diversify their supply chains to reduce their reliance on individual countries but that does not mean bringing all production back to Europe
European Union EU Trade Chief
With the coronavirus pandemic many have now realised that there has been an over reliance on Asia for the supply of key supplies. Austrian EU diplomats think this means more manufacturing and production of key supplies should be brought home. Whilst this does not mean all Asian supplies from Asia should cease it does mean more manufacturing is required in your own country to build supply resilience.
We need to look at how to build resilient supply chains based on diversification acknowledging the simple fact that we will not be able to manufacture everything locally
European Union EU Trade Chief
Dutch trade minister Sigrid Kaag told reporters after the video conference with EU counterparts that there was an awakening to the need to determine the weakest links in value chains. How can you mitigate the overdependence on countries such as China or India when it comes to essential goods.
During the coronavirus pandemic FranceGermany and USA were just some of the countries who intervened at government level to stop supply of some products including personal protective equipment and medical equipment. When supply comes from outside your own country you are diversifying your supply chain but over reliance on overseas supply can increase risk of supply chain interruption. Arriving at the right balance is key to maintaining good business performance and strong business resilience.
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Global Supply Risks And COVID-19 Pandemic Health Risk Management
Opening up the skies is a big part of easing global supply crisis. More holidaymakers increases airfreight opportunities and lowers international trading by air costs. Shortening supply chain, reversing globalisation, can increase speed of change and flexibility in an uncertain world as well as build resilience whilst protecting the environment from supply chain costs.
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What are the biggest risks to the global economy?
Although unpredictable lets try and predict the future! What is exciting is that clearly there are many threats particularly from the environment and trade wars. There are also massive opportunities for business leaders who are in control of their own business risks.
What are the biggest threats and opportunities to the world in the new decade?
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Some of the biggest global risks business leaders have little control over. Warfare and mass destruction global inequality between countries and unequal economic development creating mass economic migration global trade wars global pandemics political shift towards popularity driven left or right wing positions and systemic collapse of the financial markets. Contingency planning is the best that business leaders can do to manage most of such global catastrophic risks.
However there are risks business leaders do have the potential to have control over but do not always control such global occurring risks. Global risks falling into this category include deteriorating natural environment and global warming as well as cyber attacks.
Many of the risk management solutions for one global risk can manage the threat and opportunity from another risk without extra investment of time or money.
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BusinessRiskTV is scanning for threats and opportunities to the global economy in the new decade. If you look for it you can still see an abundance of wealth and opportunity globally and locally.
Global Recession?
Putting warfare and mass destruction risk to one side the most likely cause of a global recession is the continuing or deterioration of global trade wars.
The climate threat has come off age! The solutions are already known. However the will is less obvious. The financial services industry particularly banks will probably be the biggest influencers in driving environmental protection. Many banks and investors are refusing to finance coal businesses and are threatening divestment and lack of funding for other fossil fuel businesses. Even the governor of the Bank of England has told pension fund managers to sort out investment in fossil fuel based businesses.
The flip side of this is the opportunity to make money from environmental protection. Existing and developing environmental protection technologies are a real business opportunity. Even if your business does not sell environmental protection products or services your brand needs protecting via the adoption of good environmental protection policy.
The world is drowning in debt and fake money. Government corporate and personal debt. How future generations will cope with the weight of debt when many in the developed world are also going to suffer the effects of demographic time bomb detonation. Quite frightening! However one way to cope with future and present global risks is for governments to invest money in infrastructure particularly 5G communication and utilities. Many of the innovation and inventions are going to rely on power and the internet.Necessity is the mother of invention but with power and faster communication we will be trapped in the past with only a vision of how much better our future could be globally.
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The global landscape is changing rapidly, with new risks emerging every day. From geopolitical tensions to cybersecurity threats, businesses around the world are facing a complex and constantly evolving set of risks that they must manage in order to survive and thrive. In this article, we will explore some of the most pressing global risks that businesses need to be aware of and offer some strategies for managing them effectively.
Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical risks are those that arise from political tensions between countries or regions. These risks can take many forms, including trade wars, sanctions, and military conflicts. One recent example of a geopolitical risk is the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which has had significant implications for businesses around the world.
To manage geopolitical risks, businesses need to stay informed about political developments in the regions where they operate. They should also be proactive in diversifying their supply chains and hedging against currency fluctuations. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with local organisations or governments to gain a better understanding of the political environment and mitigate potential risks.
Cybersecurity Risks
Cybersecurity risks are those that arise from the increasing use of technology and the internet. As businesses become more reliant on digital systems and data, they also become more vulnerable to cyber attacks. These attacks can take many forms, including ransomware, phishing, and malware.
To manage cybersecurity risks, businesses need to invest in robust cybersecurity measures, such as firewalls, encryption, and regular system updates. They should also educate their employees about best practices for online security, such as avoiding suspicious emails and using strong passwords. In addition, businesses can consider purchasing cyber insurance to mitigate the financial impact of a cyber attack.
Climate Change Risks
Climate change risks are those that arise from the impact of climate change on the environment and society. These risks can take many forms, including extreme weather events, sea level rise, and food and water scarcity. The impact of climate change is already being felt around the world, and businesses need to be prepared for the potential consequences.
To manage climate change risks, businesses can take a number of steps. They can invest in renewable energy sources and other sustainable technologies to reduce their carbon footprint. They can also develop contingency plans for extreme weather events and other climate-related risks. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with governments and NGOs to address climate change at a systemic level.
Supply Chain Risks
Supply chain risks are those that arise from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. These disruptions can be caused by a variety of factors, including natural disasters, political unrest, and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, has had a significant impact on global supply chains, causing shortages of critical goods and disrupting manufacturing and distribution networks.
To manage supply chain risks, businesses need to develop contingency plans for disruptions, such as alternative suppliers and backup inventory. They should also be proactive in identifying potential risks in their supply chains and implementing measures to mitigate them. In addition, businesses can consider investing in technologies, such as blockchain and IoT, to improve supply chain visibility and resilience.
Financial Risks
Financial risks are those that arise from changes in the financial markets or economic conditions. These risks can take many forms, including fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. They can also be caused by systemic risks, such as a global recession or financial crisis.
To manage financial risks, businesses need to be proactive in monitoring financial markets and economic conditions. They should also develop contingency plans for potential disruptions, such as currency hedging strategies and diversified investment portfolios. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with financial institutions and other experts to gain a deeper understanding of financial risks and opportunities.
Managing global risks is a complex and ongoing process for businesses around the world. By staying informed about emerging risks and implementing proactive measures to mitigate them, businesses can reduce their exposure to potential losses and position themselves for long-term success.
It’s important to recognise that global risks are interconnected, meaning that a disruption in one area can have ripple effects across multiple industries and regions. For this reason, businesses need to take a holistic approach to risk management, considering the potential impact of each risk on their operations and stakeholders.
In addition to the strategies outlined above, businesses can also consider partnering with risk management experts and other organisations to stay informed about emerging risks and best practices for risk management. By taking a collaborative approach to risk management, businesses can better anticipate and manage global risks, while also positioning themselves for long-term success in an ever-changing landscape.
Overall, businesses that are able to effectively manage global risks will be better positioned to thrive in a rapidly changing world. By staying informed, developing contingency plans, and investing in resilience, businesses can reduce their exposure to potential losses and position themselves for long-term success.
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Why do manufacturers not sell directly to consumers? Well actually British manufacturers are forecast to sell 13 billion pounds worth of goods direct to consumers by 2025. UK manufacturers are moving away from selling to wholesalers and retailers and going direct to consumers according to Barclays Bank.
Nearly three out of four UK manufacturers now sell direct to consumers
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Manufacturers in the UK and rest of the world can use BusinessRiskTV to sell more direct to consumers. Get on or expand the direct to consumer trend. BusinessRiskTV social media and digital marketing service can put your manufactured products in front of potential buyers cost effectively. You deliver from your factory direct to consumer with your preferred consumer logistics and stay in control of the sale and distribution process. If there is any after care required you give it direct to consumer too.
Manufacturers can deliver a better quicker cheaper service to the consumer than wholesalers or retailers
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Manufacturers can reap the reward of cutting out the businesses in the middle that require a share of your profit. Boost your output turnover and profit. At the same time you can make your products more attractive to consumers by reducing the end user price paid for your products.
Manufacturers need to seize the moment. Sell more and sell directly to consumers with help from BusinessRiskTV. We can help you get started or provide an additional online sales marketplace to sell more online direct to consumer.
Help to complete your own business risk assessment to be better prepared for your future
Understanding your business risk profile is an important step to making better risk based business management decisions. Identify the threats and opportunities your business faces now or will do in future. Assess the risks of this uncertainty to your business objectives. Your resulting business risk profile will help you make better business decisions. Focus your limited business resources on the risks which will bring you greatest reward of business resilience and business growth.
Enterprise Wide Risk Assessment For Faster Business Growth With Best Use Of Business Assets
Profiling your business risks will help you to stop wasting time and money. You can also use your business risk profile to monitor the impact or lack of impact on your business performance.
Prepare for and manage key business risks your business faces today and tomorrow. Learn from past business risk management events your business experienced or other businesses experienced so you do not have to.
Make sure all your employees know your critical business risks. Create a more effective business risk management framework to allocate responsibilities and accountability for managing business risks.
Your business risk profile should not be a one off exercise. It should not just sit in a file with a to do list ticked. Use your own business risk to mitigate potential threats and maximise business development opportunities. Holistically manage the whole business with the best use of available existing business resources.
Enterprise risk management methodology should be applied to strategic operational and project uncertainties. Inform your decision making process with the whole picture not just part.
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Develop innovative thinking skills and process for your business. Find new and innovative ideas to help your business grow faster.Learn about strategies to help develop innovative thinking.
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Business performance can improve faster tackling business risks holistically rather than individually. Discover the best ways to tackle the biggest risks to your business. Is your business properly prepared with effective risk management tools and techniques.
Secure greater business benefits from enterprise risk management ERM
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Take more confident steps to tackle increased business risks. Read and watch videostream on practical risk management suggestions for the key risks that matter to your business performance. Address the key risk in your business more cost effectively and profitably.
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Businesses of every kind in every sector and every country seizing business opportunities to grow faster with less uncertainty. Risk affects all areas of your business. Manage those risks better for heightened business success.
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UK economic forecast next 5 years. Global business and economy experts opinions analysis and review of best guess for UK economy. Network with top business leaders and risk management professionals to help you make better more informed business decisions.
Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.
What of the future? Economic growth not contraction. The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. Can your business exploit the opportunities for growth that are ahead?
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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?
The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.
Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:
Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.
It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.
In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.
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Find ways to grow your business faster more resiliently and with less uncertainty
Our innovative approach to business growth will help your business grow faster regardless of the UK economic outlook. Some businesses always grow and there is no reason it could not be your business.
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Sure there is uncertainty about the UKs economic future. When has there been certainty? The key is to find ways to grow whatever the economic future or at least protect your business so it is resilient and survives.
There are undeniable challenges ahead for UK business leaders. Identify them assess their impact on your business and set a risk management plan and strategy for business resilience.
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Importance Of Risk Taking In Business
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Do you want to invest in your business future today
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Our future is here. We need to invest hard cash into the money innovative ideas that are just seedlings. In addition we need to invest money on old ideas that have legs but no backers. There are enormous opportunities for business and economic growth. Trouble is that we are still trying to make the obsolete ideas work for us now.
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BusinessRiskTV was created by Keith Lewis as a hub for business leaders to connect with business management experts and other business leaders to solve business problems quicker.
With BusinessRiskTV you can pick up free business risk management tips advice and support. Our risk management tools and facilities provide various ways to gain support when making important business decisions wherever you are in the world.
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How to make the UK currency work in your business favour
USA president Donald Trump plans to add a 10 percent tariff to another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on 1st September. Without a trade deal the global economy will continue to suffer not just China and USA economys. Part of the trade war rhetoric from USA is that China is manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low to gain a competitive advantage.
A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive or to put it another way a weaker yuan makes it cheaper to buy more Chinese goods with foreign currencies.
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Here in the UK the low value of the pound is held up as a bad thing for the UK economy. The airwaves are full of woe about the negative effects of the low value of the pound on the UK. In the USA president Trump moans about the Federal Reserve keeping the value of the dollar too high with too high interest rates. In addition the USA Treasury classed China as a currency manipulator as it claims China manipulates its currency to keep it lower than warranted.
The USA Treasury says China manipulates its currency to keep it lower to improve its international balance of trade and gain unfair competitive advantage in international trade. USA is taking steps in a trade war to lower the value of the dollar and push up value of the yuan.
Why does president Trump and China want lower currency valuation and UK whinges and bellyaches over low value of pound?
Most of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK benefit from a low value in the pound. Their profits are in dollars and when converted to the pound these companies receive a currency benefit to business performance. Investors including the UKs pension funds receive a low value in currency beneficial online casino bonuses at bonushitlist.
Furthermore the UK is benefiting from more income from more tourists coming to the UK. UK tourism money from overseas visitors will help boost UK economy. Business leaders in UK tourism industry should be going all out to attract visitors to their business. The low value of the pound is giving these UK tourism related businesses a competitive advantage.
Without having to enter a trade war or manipulate its currency the UK has been dealt cards that includes low value of the pound. Instead of encouraging UK business leaders of SMEs and large firms to export export export the UK media and political opportunists talk down UK economy. The result is that the UK is failing to taking advantage of the low value of the pound.
Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates to cope with the global economic slowdown. The UK can use the low value of the pound to trade its way out of the global economic slowdown. It could that is if business leaders focused on the real threats and opportunities from the low value of the pound.
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Reviewing the pandemic risks with BusinessRiskTV.com
Discover more about ebola virus. Identify ways to prevent ebola contraction and spread. Review current ebola virus pandemic risk.
The World Health Organisation WHO declared the Democratic Republic of Congos ebola outbreak as an international health emergency
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Those most at risk from ebola outbreaks tend to be health care workers caring for ebola victims.
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19th July 2019 Ebola Outbreak Crisis Worsens
The risk of global pandemic is very low but locally the number of deaths continues to climb. 1600 people have been killed by ebola virus in the DR Congo.
11000 people died in last ebola epidemic in West Africa from 2014 to 2016
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The current large ebola outbreak has not yet resulted in restrictions on travel or trade but the rate of deaths is accelerating.
A further factor in the spread of ebola in the region is the attacks on healthcare workers. This makes it even more likely that neighbouring countries could be seriously affected by the outbreak in the DR Congo.
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Existential risks business leaders should be aware of today with BusinessRiskTV
We are in an existential crisis on so many fronts. Geopolitics threatens around every corner domestically in UK and around the world. Technology could create societal threats and even AI attacks on humans! Pandemic threats are closer than we could ever imagine last century.
However each of these threats presents opportunities to take the upside risk. Turn the threat into an opportunity to grow and prosper.
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Maximise your return of investment in your marketing and advertising with BusinessRiskTV.
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Improving strategic risk management withing financial services industry in UK with BusinessRiskTV
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Strategic risk decision making in financial services industry is not complicated but it is complex. Reduce the complexity to what matters to your business in the financial services sector.
Become more efficient and productive
Build greater business resilience
Improve business performance
Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.
In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.
Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder
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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.
Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.
Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.
Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.
The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. ItalianChinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in EuropeAsia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.
Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.
A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.
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Globally Empty Office Buildings and Commercial Property Creating Debt Collapse, Systemic Threat to Banking System Worldwide
The COVID-19 pandemic and central banks response – overprinting of money out of thin air – has had a devastating impact on the global economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than in the commercial real estate sector. As businesses have been forced to close or operate remotely, millions of square feet of office space have been vacated, leaving office buildings empty around the world.
This has led to a sharp decline in property values, and many commercial real estate owners are now facing significant financial losses. In some cases, these losses have become so severe that they have forced property owners to default on their loans, which could have a ripple effect throughout the global banking system.
Who Has the Most Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
The financial institutions that have the most exposure to commercial real estate are those that specialise in lending to businesses and developers. These institutions include commercial banks, investment banks, regional banks in USA and insurance companies.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, commercial banks worldwide have about $20 trillion in outstanding loans to commercial real estate borrowers. This represents about 10% of all bank lending globally.
Investment banks and insurance companies also have significant exposure to commercial real estate. Investment banks, for example, often underwrite and market commercial real estate bonds, which are a type of debt security that is backed by the income generated from rental properties. Insurance companies, on the other hand, often invest in commercial real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are companies that own and operate income-producing properties.
Are Banks in Danger?
The sharp decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns that banks could be in danger of suffering significant losses on their loans to commercial real estate borrowers. In some cases, these losses could be so severe that they could force banks to default on their own debts, which could lead to a systemic financial crisis.
However, it is important to note that banks have a variety of tools at their disposal to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. For example, banks can sell off their commercial real estate loans to other investors, or they can take steps to restructure the terms of these loans. At the same time if the sea level is going down for all banks in real estate debt crisis will there be enough saviours?
In addition, the government can also play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market. For example, the government can provide financial assistance to banks that are struggling with commercial real estate losses, or it can provide tax breaks to businesses that are considering moving back into office space. At the same time this is inflationary and may result in even higher interest rates – problem delayed but worsened thereby extending and increasing length of recession creating depression.
How Many Office Buildings Are Empty in the US?
According to a recent survey by the commercial real estate firm CBRE, about 15% of office space in the United States is currently vacant. This represents about 250 million square feet of empty office space.
The vacancy rate is highest in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. In these cities, the vacancy rate is often above 20%.
The vacancy rate is also high in some smaller cities and towns. For example, the vacancy rate in the city of Detroit is currently over 30%.
These, official, vacancy rates seem lower than real levels other agencies produce and anecdotally.
Why Are the Banks in Trouble?
The banks are in trouble because they have lent too much money to commercial real estate borrowers. When these borrowers default on their loans, the banks are left holding the bag.
The banks are also in trouble because the value of their commercial real estate assets has declined. This decline in value has made it more difficult for the banks to sell these assets, and it has also reduced the amount of collateral that they have available to secure their loans.
The banks are also facing increased competition from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and hedge funds. These non-bank lenders are often willing to lend money to commercial real estate borrowers at lower interest rates than the banks.
Conclusion
The global pandemic has had a devastating impact on the commercial real estate sector, and this has led to significant financial losses for banks and other financial institutions. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as more and more businesses continue to operate remotely. If it gets worse it will be a very long time – decades – before it gets better!
The government will need to play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market, and banks will need to take steps to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. If these steps are not taken, the global banking system could be in danger of a systemic crisis.
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Managing Risk in Financial Services
Managing Risk in the Ever-Evolving Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry is a complex and dynamic sector that plays a vital role in the global economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including banking, insurance, investment management, and more. However, with the constant changes and uncertainties in the business landscape, managing risk has become a critical aspect of the financial services industry. In this article, we will explore the challenges and best practices of managing risk in the ever-evolving financial services industry.
The Changing Landscape of the Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry has gone through significant changes over the years, driven by various factors such as technological advancements, regulatory reforms, economic fluctuations, and changing customer preferences. These changes have brought new opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in this industry.
One of the significant changes in the financial services industry is the increasing reliance on technology. The digital revolution has transformed the way financial services are delivered and consumed. Fintech companies have emerged, leveraging technology to disrupt traditional financial services providers. This has resulted in increased competition and the need for traditional financial institutions to adapt and innovate to stay relevant.
Another change in the financial services industry is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies around the world have implemented stringent regulations to safeguard consumers and ensure financial stability. These regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States and the MiFID II directive in the European Union, have increased compliance requirements for financial services firms. Non-compliance can result in severe penalties and reputational damage, making effective risk management essential.
Economic fluctuations also impact the financial services industry. Economic downturns can lead to increased credit risk, market volatility, and liquidity challenges, while economic upturns can present growth opportunities. As the global economy becomes increasingly interconnected, events in one part of the world can have ripple effects on financial markets globally, making risk management more complex and critical.
Lastly, changing customer preferences and behaviors have also impacted the financial services industry. Customers now demand personalized and convenient financial services, with a focus on transparency and trust. This has led to a shift in business models, with a greater emphasis on customer-centricity and digital engagement. Firms need to understand customer preferences and manage reputational risk to maintain customer trust and loyalty.
Challenges in Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry
The evolving landscape of the financial services industry has brought about several challenges in managing risk effectively. Some of the significant challenges include:
Increasing Complexity: The financial services industry is highly complex, with numerous products, services, and processes. Risk managers need to understand the intricacies of various financial instruments, business models, and regulatory requirements to identify and manage risks effectively.
Changing Regulations: The regulatory landscape is constantly evolving, with new regulations being introduced and existing ones amended. Financial services firms need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure compliance, which requires significant resources and expertise.
Cybersecurity Risks: The increasing reliance on technology has also exposed the financial services industry to cybersecurity risks. Cyber threats, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, can result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, political instability, and sanctions, can have significant impacts on the financial services industry. These events can affect global markets, currencies, and investment portfolios, leading to increased volatility and risk exposure.
Reputation Risk: Reputation is crucial in the financial services industry, and any damage to reputation can have severe consequences. Negative public perception, loss of customer trust, and regulatory scrutiny can all result in significant financial and operational impacts.
Operational Risks: The complex and interconnected nature of the financial services industry also presents operational risks. Operational failures, such as system outages, processing errors, and human errors, can disrupt business operations, cause financial losses, and harm reputation.
Risk of Financial Crime: Financial services firms are also exposed to risks related to financial crime, including money laundering, fraud, and corruption. These risks can arise from internal or external sources and can result in regulatory penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Risk from Emerging Technologies: The rapid pace of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrency, presents both opportunities and risks for the financial services industry. Firms need to understand the risks associated with emerging technologies and implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate them.
Best Practices for Managing Risk in the Financial Services Industry
Given the challenges and complexities of managing risk in the financial services industry, it is essential for firms to adopt best practices to effectively mitigate risks. Here are some key best practices for managing risk in the financial services industry:
Develop a Robust Risk Management Framework: Financial services firms should establish a comprehensive risk management framework that includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting. This framework should be integrated into the firm’s overall strategy, operations, and decision-making processes.
Embrace a Risk Culture: Establishing a strong risk culture is critical for effective risk management. It involves fostering a culture where risk awareness and accountability are embedded in the organisation’s values, behaviours, and practices. This includes promoting open communication, risk transparency, and learning from mistakes.
Stay Abreast of Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is heavily regulated, and firms need to stay updated with the latest regulatory changes that impact their operations. This includes understanding the implications of regulatory changes, ensuring compliance, and engaging with regulators proactively.
Enhance Cybersecurity Measures: Given the increasing cybersecurity risks, financial services firms should implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect their systems, data, and customer information. This includes regular cybersecurity assessments, employee training, and incident response plans.
Diversify Risk Management Strategies: Financial services firms should adopt a diversified approach to risk management. This includes diversifying investments, customers, and markets to reduce concentration risk. It also involves using risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and derivatives to mitigate risks.
Conduct Comprehensive Due Diligence: Financial services firms should conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering into any business relationships, such as partnerships, acquisitions, or investments. This includes assessing the financial stability, reputation, and compliance of potential business partners to mitigate counterparty risk.
Implement Robust Compliance Programs: Compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should establish robust compliance programs that include policies, procedures, and controls to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and internal policies.
Invest in Technology and Data Analytics: Technology and data analytics can play a significant role in enhancing risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should invest in advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, to identify, assess, and monitor risks effectively.
Continuously Monitor and Update Risk Management Strategies: Risk management is an ongoing process, and firms should continuously monitor and update their risk management strategies to adapt to changing business and market conditions. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and making necessary adjustments as needed.
As the financial services industry continues to evolve, managing risk has become more critical than ever. Firms operating in this industry face various challenges, including increasing complexity, changing regulations, cybersecurity risks, geopolitical risks, reputation risk, operational risks, risk from emerging technologies, and risk from financial crime. However, by adopting best practices such as developing a robust risk management framework, embracing a risk culture, staying abreast of regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and safeguard their operations, reputation, and financial stability.
It is crucial for financial services firms to recognize that risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process that requires constant attention and adaptation. By proactively identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, firms can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential risk events and ensure their long-term sustainability.
In addition, fostering a strong risk culture within the organisation is essential for effective risk management. This involves creating an environment where risk awareness and accountability are valued, and employees at all levels are encouraged to report risks and concerns without fear of reprisal. A robust risk culture promotes open communication, transparency, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement.
Furthermore, leveraging technology and data analytics can greatly enhance risk management efforts in the financial services industry. Advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, can enable firms to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in vast amounts of data, allowing for more informed risk assessments and timely risk mitigation actions.
Lastly, financial services firms should stay updated with the latest regulatory changes and engage with regulators proactively. Regulatory requirements are constantly evolving, and firms need to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations to avoid penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage. Regular communication and collaboration with regulators can help firms understand the implications of regulatory changes and proactively address any potential compliance gaps.
In conclusion, managing risk is a critical aspect of operating in the financial services industry. With the increasing complexity and evolving landscape of this industry, firms need to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to risk management. By developing a robust risk management framework, fostering a strong risk culture, staying updated with regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and ensure their long-term success. It is imperative for financial services firms to prioritise risk management and make it an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. By doing so, they can safeguard their operations, protect their reputation, and maintain the trust of their customers and stakeholders in the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry.
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2008 should have been the watershed moment for the financial services sector and banking in particular to implement systemic changes to incorporate enterprise risk management principles and practices.
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Financial services companies have continued to bring to market products that have led to claims for compensation. Nonsense of putting the customer first is often uttered in the financial services sector.
The reality is that the financial services sector risk management culture is still systemically broken and it is likely to lead to the next financial crisis. A financial crisis comes along roughly every 10 years. As we look towards 2019 the next financial crisis is overdue.
How will the next financial crisis manifest itself? Not known. Will it happen? Almost certainly. Most countries have not fully recovered from the last financial crisis. Their economies are still very weak. Even the strong are comparatively weak. This means we may never recover from the next financial crisis and so should do more to make sure the next financial crisis is avoided or mitigated.
Most likely cause of the next financial crisis is the compounding and aggregation of financial risk.
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The last financial crisis grew and exploded from the productionisation of simple debt prototype ideas thought up by people who thought they were masters of the world. Despite the new false perception that after ten years we have now paid our dues we are in fact drowning in more unpaid debt than ever.
Unpaid debt will continue to be wrapped up in shiny new marketing material designed to protect the buyers from the toxicity of the core material. Piled high and sold cheap these debt instruments will be combined and recombined. The new for old debt products will build the tower that will be the start of the beginning of the end for many a business in the next financial crisis.
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Several of the biggest retailers in the UK have collapsed or nearly collapsed due in a large part to failure to have an appropriate increase brand awareness strategy
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Maximising Your Business Growth: Insider Strategies and Tactics from Industry Leaders
Maximising your business growth tips: sharing insider strategies and tactics from industry leaders to help you take your business to the next level.
Identify your target market.
Before you can start growing your business, you need to know who your target market is. This will help you tailor your products or services to meet the needs and wants of your ideal customer. To identify your target market, consider factors such as demographics, location, and interests.
Set clear goals and objectives.
In order to grow your business, you need to have a clear direction and plan in place. This means setting specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals and objectives. Having clear goals and objectives will help you stay focused and motivated as you work towards growing your business.
Invest in marketing and advertising.
Marketing and advertising are crucial to getting the word out about your business and attracting new customers. Consider investing in both traditional and digital marketing efforts, such as social media, email marketing, and content marketing.
Focus on customer satisfaction.
Happy customers are key to driving business growth. Make sure to prioritise customer satisfaction by providing high-quality products or services, responding to customer inquiries and complaints, and continuously seeking ways to improve the customer experience.
Diversify your revenue streams.
Diversifying your revenue streams can help protect your business from economic downturns and provide multiple sources of income. Consider offering new products or services, partnering with other businesses, or exploring alternative revenue streams such as licensing or franchising.
By following these insider strategies and tactics, you can take your business to new heights of growth and success. Remember to always keep your target market in mind, set clear goals and objectives, invest in marketing and advertising, focus on customer satisfaction, and diversify your revenue streams.Â
How to grow your business
Boost Your UK Business Revenue
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As a business grows, it will face various challenges that can hinder its growth and success. Here are some common challenges of growing a business and some tips on how to meet them with the help of BusinessRiskTV.com:
Cash flow management: Managing cash flow can be a challenge for growing businesses, especially if they have large overheads and expenses. BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses develop a financial plan to ensure they have enough cash to cover their expenses and invest in growth opportunities.
Hiring and retaining talent: As a business grows, it will need to hire new employees to keep up with the demand. However, finding and retaining talented employees can be a challenge. BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses develop an effective recruitment strategy and employee retention plan.
Scaling operations: Growing businesses need to scale their operations to meet the demands of their customers. However, scaling too quickly can lead to operational inefficiencies and quality issues. BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses develop a growth strategy that balances speed and efficiency.
Managing risk: As a business grows, it becomes more exposed to risks such as cyber attacks, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory changes. BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses identify and manage these risks by developing a risk management plan.
Competition: Growing businesses may face increased competition as they expand into new markets or attract new customers. BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses develop a competitive strategy to differentiate themselves from their competitors.
Overall, growing a business can be a challenging process, but with the help of BusinessRiskTV.com, businesses can overcome these challenges and achieve their growth objectives.
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