Lions Led By Donkeys

We get the politicians we deserve!

The A Political Quagmire: Navigating Uncertain Seas in the US and UK

The year 2023 has painted a stark picture of political dysfunction in both the United States and the United Kingdom. In the US, a gridlocked Congress produced a meager 23 bills, a far cry from the legislative productivity expected from the world’s leading democracy. Across the Atlantic, the echoes of Brexit continue to reverberate, with the UK Parliament bogged down in endless debates instead of tackling the pressing economic challenges facing the nation. This grim reality poses a significant challenge for individuals and businesses in both countries, leaving them adrift in a sea of uncertainty.

The American Stalemate: A Congress in Paralysis

The 2023 legislative output of the US Congress stands as a testament to the deep partisan divide currently gripping American politics. Republicans and Democrats seem locked in a perpetual tug-of-war, more interested in scoring political points than finding common ground. This has resulted in a legislative drought, leaving crucial issues like healthcare reform, infrastructure development, and climate change unaddressed.

For individuals, this political paralysis translates into a sense of disillusionment and a feeling of being forgotten by their elected representatives. The lack of progress on key issues like healthcare affordability and student loan debt directly impacts their lives, while the inaction on climate change raises anxieties about the future. Meanwhile, businesses face an unpredictable regulatory environment, hindering investment and economic growth.

Navigating the Labyrinth: What Americans Can Do

In the face of this legislative inertia, individuals and businesses must become the architects of their own destinies. Here are some strategies to navigate the American political quagmire:

Stay informed: Stay abreast of current events and political developments. Follow reputable news sources from both sides of the spectrum to understand the nuances of the issues and hold your elected officials accountable.
Engage constructively: Reach out to your representatives and express your concerns and priorities. Support organizations that advocate for issues you care about and participate in peaceful protests and demonstrations.
Vote strategically: Research the candidates in your local and national elections and vote based on their track record and policy positions. Consider candidates who demonstrate a willingness to compromise and work across the aisle.
Focus on local politics: Engage with your local community and participate in local elections. Local governments often have a significant impact on daily life, and your involvement can make a real difference.
Support civic engagement initiatives: Encourage and educate others about the importance of political participation. Promote initiatives that foster civil discourse and bridge the partisan divide.

Brexit’s Bitter Aftermath: UK’s Economy Lost in the Fog

While the US suffers from congressional gridlock, the UK grapples with the fallout of Brexit. The 2016 referendum, which saw a narrow vote to leave the European Union, has plunged the nation into a protracted political and economic crisis. Parliament remains embroiled in endless debates about the terms of the withdrawal agreement, with little progress made on addressing the concerns of businesses and citizens regarding trade, immigration, and the future of the National Health Service.

For individuals, Brexit has brought uncertainty about jobs, wages, and access to essential goods and services. Businesses face complex bureaucratic hurdles and the potential for reduced market access. The ongoing political turmoil erodes confidence in the economy and dampens investment, further hindering growth.

Charting a Course Forward: How the UK Can Steer Out of Troubled Waters

To emerge from this quagmire, the UK needs a renewed focus on pragmatism and national unity. Here are some potential pathways forward:

Prioritise the economy: Parliament must shift its focus from Brexit minutiae to addressing the immediate concerns of businesses and citizens. Policies that stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and support vulnerable communities are essential.
Seek common ground: Political parties must find ways to cooperate and compromise on key issues.Collaborative leadership that transcends partisan divides is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.
Foster open dialogue: The government must engage in transparent communication with the public, clearly explaining the implications of various Brexit scenarios and seeking feedback on potential solutions.
Invest in education and skills training: Equipping the workforce with the necessary skills to thrive in the post-Brexit landscape is crucial for long-term economic success.
Promote international cooperation: Building strong relationships with other countries, both within and outside of the EU, will be essential for securing trade deals and fostering economic opportunity.

A Common Challenge, Different Solutions

While the political landscapes of the US and UK differ significantly, the challenges they face share a common thread: a lack of effective governance and a disconnect between elected officials and the people they represent. To overcome these hurdles, both nations must rediscover the spirit of compromise, prioritise the needs of their citizens and businesses, and embrace pragmatism over ideology.

The road ahead will undoubtedly be challenging, but by staying informed, engaging constructively, and holding their leaders accountable, individuals and businesses can play a vital role.

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Will you drown or be saved with cryptos?

Some bank shares are still more than 90% off their peak pre 2008 financial crisis so there is no such thing as “safe as money in the bank”!

The Inflationary Storm: Are Cryptos Your Lifeboat?

A dark cloud hangs over the global economy. Whispers of recession turn into shouts, and governments, desperate to keep the ship afloat, resort to the familiar mantra: fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing. But what does this mean for your hard-earned money? Enter cryptocurrencies: a digital life raft in a sea of potential devaluation.

As a currency and economics expert, I’m here to navigate these choppy waters. Today, we’ll explore the potential for crypto as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. We’ll dive into the economic storm, examine the limitations of traditional safeguards, and assess whether venturing into the crypto realm could be your best bet.

The Looming Devaluation:

Governments and central banks worldwide have injected trillions into their economies since the pandemic. This, coupled with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, is fuelling an inflationary fire. Fiat currencies, backed by nothing but government promises, are losing their purchasing power. A loaf of bread that cost $2 yesterday may cost $2.10 tomorrow, silently eroding your savings and future.

Traditional Safe Havens Fail:

Historically, gold and other precious metals have been go-to hedges against inflation. But their limited supply and physical constraints don’t cater to everyone’s needs. Real estate or property, another traditional option, suffers from high entry barriers and illiquidity.

This is where cryptocurrencies enter the picture. With their decentralised nature, limited supply, and global reach, they present a new, albeit volatile, option.

The Crypto Advantage:

Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies,many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin,have a predetermined cap on their supply. This scarcity helps limit inflation and potentially increases their value over time.
Decentralisation: Cryptocurrencies aren’t subject to the whims of governments or central banks. Their decentralised networks offer a buffer against devaluation policies used to stimulate economies.
Global Accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can access and trade cryptocurrencies, regardless of location or financial standing. This democratises wealth management and opens doors to previously excluded individuals.
Store of Value: While their volatility often grabs headlines, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have exhibited long-term value appreciation. Their potential to act as a digital gold, a secure store of value in a turbulent economy, is undeniable.

The Risk Factor:

However, venturing into the world of cryptocurrencies isn’t without its risks:

Volatility: The crypto market is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing wildly, making them potentially unsuitable for risk-averse individuals.
Regulation: The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is still evolving, creating uncertainty and potential for government intervention.
Security: Crypto wallets and exchanges have been targets for hackers, highlighting the importance of choosing secure platforms and practicing safe storage methods.

Navigating the Crypto Waters:

So, should you dive into the crypto ocean as a hedge against devaluation? The answer depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a safe haven, traditional options like gold might be better suited. However, if you have the risk appetite and are willing to do your research, cryptocurrencies could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.

Remember, diversification is key. Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket. Start with a small allocation, understand the risks involved, and invest only what you can afford to lose.

For Business Leaders:

Explore crypto’s potential as a payment option: Accepting cryptocurrencies can attract tech-savvy customers and expand your reach.
Consider crypto investments: Carefully assess the risks and potential rewards of incorporating crypto into your portfolio.
Educate your employees: Equip your team with the knowledge they need to understand and potentially utilise cryptocurrencies.

For Consumers:

Do your research: Understand the different types of cryptocurrencies and their underlying technologies before investing.
Diversify your portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.
Start small: Invest only what you can afford to lose, and remember the market is volatile.
Choose secure platforms: Store your cryptocurrencies in reputable wallets and exchanges.

Cryptocurrencies present a fascinating blend of opportunity and risk in the face of potential fiat currency devaluation. While not a guaranteed solution, they offer a novel approach to securing your financial future. Remember, knowledge is power in this realm. Educate yourself, assess your risk tolerance, and make informed decisions to weather the coming economic storm. The crypto lifeboat might just be the key to staying afloat in the inflationary seas ahead.

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Institutional investors muscling into your housing market

Who will be your landlord in future and what does it mean in the short and long term?

The Rise of Institutional Homeownership: Will Banks Become Your Landlord?

The traditional image of a homeowner – an individual or family purchasing a property for personal use – is undergoing a significant shift in the United Kingdom. Enter the institutional investor, specifically banks like Lloyds, venturing into the single-family home market on a grand scale. This trend, while nascent, poses intriguing questions about the future of housing affordability, rents, and the very nature of homeownership in the UK.

Banks as Landlords: A New Game in Town

Driven by factors like low interest rates, a perceived hedge against inflation, and the potential for stable rental income, institutional investors are increasingly eyeing the residential property market. Lloyds Bank, the UK’s largest mortgage provider, stands as a prime example. In 2021, they partnered with the housebuilder Taylor Wimpey to acquire thousands of newly built homes for rental purposes. This move isn’t isolated; similar initiatives are underway across the pond in the US, with major players like Blackstone and Goldman Sachs amassing vast portfolios of single-family homes.

Impact on Housing Prices: A Double-Edged Sword

The immediate impact of institutional buying on house prices is a complex issue. On the one hand, their deep pockets could inject significant capital into the market, potentially driving up prices, particularly in desirable locations. This could exacerbate affordability concerns, especially for first-time buyers already struggling with rising costs.

On the other hand, some argue that institutional investors might act as a stabilising force, purchasing excess inventory during market downturns and preventing price crashes. Additionally, their focus on energy-efficient, modern homes could contribute to long-term improvements in the housing stock.

Ultimately, the net effect on prices will depend on various factors, including the scale of institutional buying, government policies, and broader economic trends.

Rents on the Rise? Not So Simple Either

While the prospect of institutional landlords might raise concerns about rent hikes, the reality is likely to be more nuanced. Firstly, these investors are primarily interested in long-term, stable returns, which incentivises them to offer competitive rents to attract and retain tenants. Additionally, regulations like rent control measures could play a role in curbing excessive rent increases.

However, concerns remain. The sheer volume of homes owned by institutions could give them significant market power, potentially allowing them to exert upward pressure on rents, particularly in areas with limited housing options. Moreover, the focus on professional property management might lead to a less personal and potentially less responsive landlord-tenant relationship compared to traditional setups.

The Long View: Redefining Homeownership

The long-term implications of this trend are far-reaching. A future with a significant portion of homes owned by institutions could fundamentally alter the concept of homeownership in the UK. Traditional homeowner aspirations, centred around property ownership and wealth accumulation, might give way to a renter-centric model, where stability and affordability become the primary concerns.

This shift could have profound social consequences, potentially impacting wealth distribution, community dynamics, and even political landscapes. It’s crucial to have open and informed discussions about the potential benefits and drawbacks of this new paradigm, ensuring that policies and regulations are in place to protect tenants and safeguard a healthy housing market for all.

Beyond the Numbers: Humanising the Equation

In the rush to analyse statistics and market trends, it’s important to remember that housing is more than just an investment or a commodity. Homes are where families build memories, communities thrive, and lives unfold. As we navigate this changing landscape, it’s essential to keep the human element at the centre of the conversation. We must ensure that this new wave of institutional ownership doesn’t come at the cost of affordability, stability, and the very essence of what makes a house a home.

The rise of institutional homeownership presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for the UK. While it holds the potential to boost the housing market and offer stability, it also raises concerns about affordability, renter rights, and the long-term social impact. As we move forward, careful consideration, informed policy decisions, and a focus on human needs are crucial to ensure that this new chapter in UK housing benefits everyone, not just the bottom line of institutional investors.

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Business Leaders Have Self Preservation and Moral Obligation To Manage Risks Better

It’s going to pop or we are heading for soft landing economically speaking?

My fellow business leaders, we stand at a pivotal moment. The alluring winds of speculation have inflated a bubble across stocks, bonds, and other debt assets, leaving us staring at a precarious horizon. 2024 looms large, with the question on everyone’s mind: are lower interest rates a life raft or a leaky pontoon for a world economy teetering on the brink? Can we navigate this volatile sea, deflate the bubble gently, and ensure a smooth landing, or is a catastrophic crash inevitable?

Navigating the Storm: A Guide for Business Leaders in a Sea of Speculation

Firstly, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room: we are in a bubble. Asset prices have been inflated beyond their intrinsic value, fueled by easy money, a search for yield in a low-interest-rate environment, and, frankly, a touch of irrational exuberance. This artificial inflation has distorted markets, misallocated resources, and sown the seeds of potential crisis.

Now, to the burning question: can lower interest rates be the balm that soothes the bubble? The answer, like the ocean itself, is nuanced.

Lowering interest rates could provide temporary relief. It would inject liquidity into the market, potentially buying time for asset prices to adjust gently. Imagine it as lowering the pressure in a balloon—a slow release might prevent a sudden explosion. However, this approach comes with risks. More liquidity could further inflate the bubble, creating a bigger problem down the line. Additionally, it could weaken the already-anemic economic growth, leading to a “zombie economy” propped up by cheap money.

So, is it too late for a controlled descent? I wouldn’t write the obituary just yet. While the risks are undeniable, we still have room for manoeuvre. Here’s the good news: the bubble hasn’t fully popped yet. We can still act, and businesses have a crucial role to play.

Here’s my prescription for weathering the storm:

1. Prudence over Profits: In this uncertain climate, prioritise caution over short-term gains. Focus on building reserves, reducing debt, and diversifying your portfolio. Remember, cash is king during market downturns.

2. Agility over Rigidity: Be prepared to pivot quickly. Reassess your business model, identify new opportunities, and be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics. This could involve embracing digital transformation, exploring new markets, or even restructuring your operations.

3. Innovation over Imitation: Don’t wait for the tide to turn, swim against it. Invest in innovation, develop new products and services that address pressing societal needs, and stay ahead of the curve. This is the time to disrupt, not follow suit.

4. Collaboration over Competition: The coming storm requires unity, not rivalry. Collaborate with other businesses, share resources, and build robust supply chains. Remember, rising tides lift all boats, and when one ship sinks, the entire fleet can be endangered.

5. Responsibility over Recklessness: As leaders, we have a responsibility not just to our shareholders, but to our employees, communities, and the planet. Embrace sustainable practices, promote ethical business practices, and prioritise long-term value creation over short-term gain.

Ultimately, whether we emerge from this bubble unscathed or witness a painful burst depends on our collective actions. Business leaders, we have the power to be anchors in this storm, steering our companies, and by extension, the global economy, towards a safe harbour. Let’s choose prudence over panic, agility over rigidity, and collaboration over competition. Let’s build businesses that not only survive but thrive in the volatile ocean of speculation. Remember, it’s not about predicting the storm, it’s about weathering it with resilience and responsibility. Together, we can ensure that 2024 is not the year of a crash, but a year of controlled descent, leading to a stronger, more sustainable future for all.

This is not just an economic imperative, it’s a moral one. Let’s navigate this sea of speculation with courage, foresight, and a shared commitment to the well-being of our businesses, our communities, and our planet.

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Control the controllable

You can still be in control of your destiny

Stop Predicting Mishaps and Build a Fortress: Managing Resilience in Uncertain Times

The world outside your boardroom window is a tempestuous ocean. Unforeseen tides roll in, stormy winds whip up, and unpredictable leaders steer their own vessels with varying degrees of… competence. As business leaders, we’re tempted to focus on these external fluctuations, squinting into the distance, trying to divine the next political misfire, economic tremour, or environmental upheaval. We spend countless hours crafting intricate contingency plans for every conceivable dystopian scenario – all while neglecting the most critical factor in our control: building a resilient business.

Instead of exhausting ourselves predicting the machinations of our “great leaders,” let’s shift our gaze inward. Let’s focus on what we can control: fortifying our own organisations. Let’s become architects of resilience, crafting businesses that thrive amidst chaos, bounce back from adversity, and emerge stronger from the stormiest seas.

Redefining Resilience: Beyond Crisis Planning

Resilience isn’t just about weathering a crisis. It’s about adapting, evolving, and even profiting from unexpected challenges. It’s about building an organisation that doesn’t merely survive the punches, but thrives on the throws. To achieve this, we need to move beyond reactive crisis planning and embrace a proactive, holistic approach to resilience.

The Pillars of a Resilient Business:

Foundational Stability: A resilient business starts with a rock-solid foundation. This means solid financial management, robust infrastructure, and a clear understanding of your core competencies and value proposition. Ensure your financial house is in order, with diversified revenue streams and adequate reserves to weather unexpected downturns. Invest in critical infrastructure, from IT systems to supply chains, ensuring redundancy and adaptability. Know your strengths and weaknesses inside-out, and focus on what you do best – outsourcing non-core functions to agile partners.
Agile & Adaptive Culture: Rigid organisations crumble under pressure. Cultivate a culture of agility and adaptability where employees are empowered to make decisions, take risks, and experiment. Encourage open communication, cross-functional collaboration, and continuous learning. Embrace diverse perspectives and foster a “fail fast, learn fast” mentality. Bureaucracy breeds stagnation; agility nurtures resilience.
Innovation Engine: Disruption is the new normal. Stay ahead of the curve by fostering a culture of innovation. Invest in research and development, encourage creative problem-solving, and reward out-of-the-box thinking. Be open to new technologies, business models, and market opportunities. Turn uncertainty into an opportunity to innovate and differentiate yourself from the competition.
Risk Management Mindset: While we shouldn’t obsess over predicting specific external events, a proactive risk management framework is crucial. Identify potential threats, assess their likelihood and impact, and develop mitigation strategies. Regularly review and update your risk assessments, and ensure effective communication and training around risk management protocols. Be prepared, but don’t get paralysed by fear of the unknown.
Stakeholder Trust & Engagement: Trust is the mortar that binds an organisation together. Cultivate strong relationships with employees, customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders. Be transparent in your communication, proactive in addressing concerns, and responsive to their needs. A network of trust enables your organization to weather storms together, with everyone aligned towards a common goal.

Driving Business Goals With Resilience as Your Fuel:

Building resilience isn’t about neglecting your objectives. It’s about ensuring you achieve them despite, and even because of, external turbulence. A resilient business is a proactive business, one that anticipates change and turns it to its advantage. By focusing on internal strengths and adaptability, you position yourself to seize opportunities amidst disruption, navigate uncharted waters, and emerge as a leader in the new landscape.

Remember, the next leader’s blunder, economic downturn, or natural disaster is inevitable. Stop squinting into the fog and get to work building your ark. Invest in internal strength, agility, and innovation. Forge a culture of resilience, and watch your business weather any storm while achieving its intended destination. By focusing on what you can control, you turn uncertainty into opportunity and become the captain of your own destiny, no matter who’s steering the world around you.

This is just the beginning of the conversation. Let’s keep building more resilient businesses, together.

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Future Of Cryptocurrency

Fools gold or once in a lifetime opportunity in 2024?

The Crystal Ball of Crypto: Predicting Spot ETF Acceptability and Market Impact in 2024

The nascent world of cryptocurrencies has been on a rollercoaster ride, its trajectory heavily influenced by regulatory decisions, particularly when it comes to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Spot ETFs, tracking the underlying price of a crypto asset directly, promise to unlock unprecedented mainstream access and potential legitimisation for this new asset class. With multiple applications currently under review in various countries, the question remains: Where will these applications land? And what does it mean for cryptocurrency valuations in 2024? Predicting the future is always precarious, but by analysing current trends, regulatory landscapes, and industry sentiment, we can paint a picture of potential scenarios.

The Global Regulatory Landscape: Shades of Gray across Borders

The regulatory landscape for crypto assets, and Spot ETFs by extension, remains fragmented and diverse. Different countries approach the issue with varying degrees of receptiveness and caution. Let’s take a peek into some key regions:

North America: The US, the world’s largest financial market, has been notoriously hesitant. Despite numerous applications, the SEC hasn’t approved any Spot ETFs yet, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, recent developments like BlackRock’s application and a court favouring Grayscale’s case signal a potential shift towards approval in 2024. Canada, on the other hand, has already approved several Spot ETFs, setting a precedent for the region.
Europe: Europe has taken a more pragmatic approach, with Germany approving its first Spot ETF in 2021. Several other European countries are actively considering applications, with Switzerland and France potentially following suit in 2024. However, stricter regulatory frameworks like MiCA could impose additional hurdles.
Asia: The picture in Asia is complex. Hong Kong, known for its financial openness, recently broke new ground by approving its first Spot ETF, the CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF. This marks a significant departure from the stance of mainland China, which has banned individual crypto trading entirely. Meanwhile, Japan, after initial apprehension, has recently approved a Bitcoin futures ETF, potentially paving the way for further developments.

Predicting the Domino Effect: Acceptance Scenarios and their Impact

Based on these regional variations, let’s consider three potential scenarios for Spot ETF acceptance by the end of 2024:

Scenario 1: The Dam Breaks Open

A wave of approvals sweeps across major markets like the US, Canada, and several European countries. This scenario, fueled by growing institutional interest and industry pressure, could trigger a surge in demand for crypto assets, driving up valuations significantly. Increased liquidity and accessibility could attract new investors, further amplifying the bull run. This scenario, however, also carries risks, as rapid price climbs could be followed by sharp corrections if regulatory crackdowns or technological limitations arise.

Scenario 2: A Measured Waltz

Acceptance occurs but at a controlled pace. Regulators take time to carefully vet applications, prioritising robust safeguards and investor protection. This scenario would result in a gradual rise in valuations without the intense volatility of Scenario 1. New investors would enter cautiously, ensuring a more sustainable growth trajectory. However, this also means the full potential of Spot ETFs would be realised over a longer timeframe.

Scenario 3: The Cold Shoulder

Regulatory hurdles persist, with major markets like the US remaining hesitant. This scenario would keep the crypto market confined to its current niche, hindering mainstream adoption and limiting valuation growth. However, it could also foster further innovation within the crypto ecosystem, driving development towards greater decentralisation and security.

Beyond the Crystal Ball: The Unknowns and Opportunities

Predicting the future of crypto valuations is an intricate dance with numerous variables. Even the most robust analysis must acknowledge the presence of unforeseen black swans: unforeseen regulatory shifts, technological breakthroughs, or major market events. However, regardless of the specific scenario that unfolds, Spot ETFs are destined to be a game-changer for the crypto landscape. Increased institutional involvement, improved access, and potential regulatory legitimacy will undoubtedly have a profound impact on valuations, shaping the trajectory of this emerging asset class in 2024 and beyond.

As investors navigate this new frontier, it’s crucial to stay informed, manage risks responsibly, and remain adaptable to the ever-evolving nature of the cryptoverse. The crystal ball may be blurry, but the potential of Spot ETFs shines brightly, illuminating a future where mainstream adoption and institutional acceptance could propel cryptocurrencies into the heart of the global financial system.

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FedEx Experience and Risk Outlook Warning To Business Leaders Around World

How do you feel about this red flag and what will your business do about it?

FedEx: Canary in the Global Coal Mine – Why the Delivery Giant’s Woes Should Alarm Business Leaders

Keith Lewis 20th December 2023

On December 19th, 2023, FedEx, the global logistics leviathan, delivered a bombshell. Their preliminary earnings report painted a grim picture, missing analyst expectations and prompting an ominous pronouncement from CEO Raj Subramaniam: “We see a global recession coming.” With FedEx serving as a crucial artery for international trade, its tremors sent shockwaves through the business world, sparking concerns about the trajectory of the global economy. For business leaders, the message is clear: pay heed, for FedEx’s woes are a stark canary in the coal mine, signalling potential turbulence ahead.

FedEx: A bellwether in a storm

FedEx occupies a unique position in the economic ecosystem. Its vast network, spanning over 220 countries and territories, transports 4.7 billion parcels annually, serving as a barometer of global trade activity. When businesses and consumers are flourishing, so does FedEx. Conversely, when economic headwinds blow, the first chill is often felt within its corridors. This symbiotic relationship is precisely why FedEx is considered a bellwether – an early indicator of economic health.

A Perfect Storm of Gloom:

The reasons behind FedEx’s current predicament are multi-faceted, forming a perfect storm of economic anxieties.

Global Economic Slowdown: The world is experiencing a synchronised slowdown, with major economies like the US, Europe, and China grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. This dampens consumer spending and business investment, directly impacting the volume of goods shipped and,consequently, FedEx’s bottom line.
E-commerce Plateau: The explosive growth of e-commerce, a major driver of package volume for FedEx, appears to be reaching a plateau. Consumers are tightening their belts, opting for essential purchases over online splurges. This shift weakens the e-commerce engine that had been propelling FedEx in recent years.
Operational Misfires: Beyond external factors, FedEx has faced internal challenges. Labour shortages, network disruptions, and integration hiccups within its TNT acquisition have hampered efficiency and added to costs. These internal missteps exacerbate the impact of external headwinds.

The Ripple Effect:

The tremours of FedEx’s struggles extend far beyond the company itself. As a bellwether, its woes signal potential trouble for various stakeholders:

Businesses: A global recession would translate to reduced demand, disrupted supply chains, and tighter credit conditions. This can lead to lower profits, stalled investments, and layoffs, impacting businesses of all sizes across industries.
Investors: The stock market’s reaction to FedEx’s report is indicative of broader anxieties. A sustained economic downturn could trigger further market volatility, eroding investor confidence and hindering capital flows.
Consumers: A recession typically results in job losses, wage stagnation,and reduced disposable income. This translates to less spending and increased economic anxiety for consumers, further dampening economic activity.

A Call to Action for Business Leaders:

FedEx’s struggles serve as a stark warning for business leaders across the globe. It is not a time for complacency, but for prudent preparation and proactive adaptation. Here are some key actions to consider:

Scenario Planning: Develop contingency plans for various economic scenarios, including a potential recession. This way, businesses can adjust strategies, optimise cost structures, and weather potential storms.
Focus on Efficiency: Identify and eliminate operational inefficiencies. Streamline processes, optimise supply chains, and leverage technology to reduce costs and improve resilience.
Prioritise Agility: Embrace a culture of flexibility and adaptability. Be ready to pivot strategies, adjust product offerings, and shift focus to meet changing market conditions.
Invest in Innovation: Seek innovative solutions to enhance customer experience, improve product offerings, and gain a competitive edge in a challenging market.
Foster Collaboration: Build strong relationships with partners, suppliers, and customers. Open communication and collaboration can help navigate tough times and identify shared solutions.

In conclusion, FedEx’s current woes are not an isolated phenomenon. They are a reflection of broader economic anxieties that should serve as a wake-up call for business leaders worldwide. By acknowledging the headwinds, preparing for potential turbulence, and implementing proactive strategies, businesses can navigate the uncertain waters ahead and emerge stronger on the other side. The time for action is now, and the canary’s song should not be ignored. By taking heed and adapting, businesses can not only weather the storm brewing on the horizon but also emerge into calmer waters, ready to thrive in the post-recessionary landscape.

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Shadow Banking Is The Wild West And Could Yet Cause Economic Depression

How could the $220 trillion shadow banking gambling casino blow up your business prospects?

The Looming Shadow: Leveraged Shadow Banking and the 2024 Risk Horizon

As we peer into the economic crystal ball of 2024, one spectre looms large: the potential for a crisis borne from the murky depths of leveraged shadow banking. While whispers of this risk have swirled for years, the confluence of several factors – rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and an interconnected financial landscape – amplifies the potential for a shockwave to ripple through the global economy. As business leaders, navigating this uncharted territory requires an understanding of the threat and proactive measures to ensure our ships weather the storm.

Delving into the Shadows:

Shadow banking encompasses a vast network of non-traditional financial institutions operating outside the regulatory purview of the formal banking system. Think investment funds, hedge funds, money market funds, and other entities engaging in lending, credit extension, and other activities typically associated with banks. The key differentiator lies in their funding – they rely heavily on borrowed money (leverage) to amplify their investment capacity, amplifying potential returns, but also magnifying risk.

This reliance on leverage creates a precarious scenario. Rising interest rates, a reality in 2023, increased the cost of borrowing for shadow banks, squeezing their profit margins and potentially triggering a wave of defaults on their obligations. This domino effect could cascade through the financial system, impacting traditional banks reliant on shadow banking for liquidity and investment opportunities.

The Perfect Storm:

Beyond interest rates, several storm clouds gather on the horizon. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around resource-rich regions, could disrupt global supply chains and trigger commodity price volatility, further squeezing margins for shadow banks heavily invested in such assets. Additionally, the interconnectedness of the financial system means a crisis in one corner can rapidly spread, amplifying the overall impact.

The 2024 Risk Horizon:

While predicting the exact timing of a potential crisis is a fool’s errand, 2024 presents several worrying factors. The lagged effects of interest rate hikes could manifest, geopolitical flashpoints remain simmering, and the post-pandemic economic recovery has yet to be fully cemented. This confluence of risks creates a perfect storm for a shadow banking crisis, with potentially devastating consequences.

Protecting Your Business:

So, what can business leaders do to safeguard their organisations? Several proactive measures are key:

Strengthen Liquidity: Build robust cash reserves to weather potential disruptions in credit availability.
Diversify Funding Sources: Reduce reliance on shadow banking and diversify funding sources to traditional banks and alternative forms of financing.
Stress Test Scenarios: Run stress tests to understand your exposure to potential shadow banking-related shocks and identify vulnerabilities.
Reduce Leverage: Minimise dependence on borrowed capital to lessen the impact of rising interest rates.
Scenario Planning: Develop contingency plans for various crisis scenarios to ensure swift and decisive action when needed.

Beyond internal measures, advocating for stronger regulatory oversight of the shadow banking system is crucial. Pushing for greater transparency, capital adequacy requirements, and risk management protocols can mitigate the systemic risks emanating from this opaque corner of finance.

A Call to Action:

The potential for a shadow banking crisis in 2024 is not a foregone conclusion; it is a call to action. By understanding the risks, adopting proactive measures, and advocating for responsible regulation, we can navigate these perilous waters and ensure the continued prosperity of our businesses and the global economy. Remember, vigilance, diversification, and preparedness are our anchors in the coming storm. Let us act with foresight and build a future where shadows no longer threaten the economic sun.

The risks from shadow banking is another reason interest rate cuts in USA, EU and UK would be welcome but much needed regulation of the 220 trillion dollars invested in this area is probably not going to happen until 2025 at the earliest – if at all. Ironically the leverage problem is due to financial institutions lack of money!

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Don’t Get Too Excited About Falling Inflation Rates!

Once again central banks in USA, EU and UK have been too slow to react and when they do they’ll be too late and overreact perpetuating our economic boom bust cycle

The Looming Storm: Declining Inflation, Rising Recession Risk in 2024

While headlines tout slowing inflation in the US, EU, and UK, a shadow lurks beneath the surface. Contrary to popular belief, this seemingly positive development may in fact be a harbinger of imminent recession in 2024. Understanding why requires peeling back the layers of economic realities and acknowledging the nuanced interplay between inflation, monetary policy, and economic behaviour.

From Scorching to Smoldering: The Inflation Slowdown Narrative

Over the past year, inflationary flames have licked across global economies, driven by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, soaring energy prices, and fiscal stimulus packages. Central banks, armed with the blunt instrument of interest rate hikes, sought to tamp down the heat. And indeed, recent data reflects a cooling trend. US inflation has dipped from a peak of 9.1% in June 2023, with similar softening observed in the EU and UK.

This downward trajectory has fueled a wave of optimism. Policymakers and pundits alike herald the successful execution of monetary tightening, envisioning a soft landing for the global economy. Some even predict inflation returning to target levels within the year.

Beneath the Surface: The Cracks in the Facade

However, this rosy outlook rests on shaky ground. The disinflationary trend, while seemingly positive, can also be a potent predictor of impending recession. Let’s explore the three key reasons why:

1. Demand Destruction, Not Harmony: Declining inflation is often achieved through demand destruction. Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive, impacting both businesses and consumers. Business investment slows, hiring freezes become commonplace, and consumer spending weakens as disposable income shrinks. This domino effect ultimately saps economic activity, paving the way for recession.

2. The Lag Effect’s Looming Bite: Monetary policy operates with a time lag. Today’s interest rate hikes primarily impact economic activity months down the line. This means the full force of recent tightening may not be felt until 2024, potentially triggering a sudden and sharp economic downturn just as policymakers believe they’ve tamed the inflation beast.

3. Stagflationary Spectre : The disinflationary process carries the risk of morphing into stagflation, a nightmare scenario characterised by stagnant economic growth and persistent, albeit lower, inflation. This arises when businesses, burdened by higher input costs, maintain price hikes even as demand weakens. Such a scenario would severely constrain central banks’ ability to respond, trapping the economy in a quagmire.

A Perfect Storm Brewing in 2024:

Considering these factors, 2024 appears primed for a perfect economic storm. The lagged effects of aggressive interest rate hikes are likely to coincide with continued geopolitical uncertainties, energy price volatility, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. This potent cocktail could push vulnerable economies over the edge, plunging them into recession despite disinflationary trends.

Evidence Mounts, The Case Strengthens:

Empirical evidence further substantiates this gloomy outlook. Leading economic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and consumer confidence surveys, are already flashing red. Business investment has plateaued, and layoffs are increasing across various sectors. Additionally, inverted yield curves, historically reliable recession predictors, have emerged in all three economies, signaling heightened investor anxiety about future economic prospects.

A Call to Action: Navigating the Coming Storm

The potential for a 2024 recession demands immediate and proactive action. Policymakers must adopt a nuanced approach, acknowledging the dual threat of inflation and recession. Continued, albeit calibrated, interest rate hikes may still be necessary to tame inflation, but fiscal measures aimed at supporting vulnerable populations and stimulating aggregate demand become crucial (boom to bust ie bailing out financial system again. Open communication with the public, emphasising transparent risk assessment and contingency plans, is also essential to maintain confidence and mitigate potential financial panic.

Individuals and businesses, too, must brace themselves for turbulent times. Building robust financial buffers, diversifying investments, and exercising prudence in spending decisions are key to weathering the storm.

Conclusion: The Coming Recession – Not a Certainty, But a Clear and Present Danger

While declining inflation may initially appear as a victory, it can mask a deeper malaise. In the context of current economic vulnerabilities and aggressive monetary tightening, the disinflationary trend in the US, EU, and UK presents a significant risk of recession in 2024. Ignoring this risk would be akin to celebrating a pyre’s dimming flames while neglecting the smoldering embers beneath. By acknowledging the impending danger and taking decisive action, policymakers and individuals alike can navigate the coming storm and emerge stronger on the other side.

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Key Threat To USA Regional Banks and Wider Financial System Globally

Bricks and mortar last a long time but the work from home solution is a lasting problem for commercial property owners and the wider financial system stability

A Ticking Time Bomb: Risks of Renewing Commercial Property Loans in 2024

The American financial system stands on the precipice of a potential tremor in 2024. Not from earthquakes or stock market crashes, but from the quiet ticking of a time bomb: a vast swathe of commercial property loans approaching their renewal date. Over $1.5 trillion worth of these loans will mature next year, and the uncertain economic climate has cast a long shadow over their renegotiation, potentially triggering a series of cascading risks for the financial system.

A Perfect Storm of Uncertainties:

Several factors converge to create this precarious situation:

Shifting Market Dynamics: The pandemic’s impact on commercial real estate lingers. Office vacancy rates remain high, retail struggles to adapt to online shopping, and hospitality faces a new normal. These challenges erode property values, impacting the collateral backing these loans.
Rising Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation has driven interest rates upward. This significantly affects borrower affordability, putting pressure on them to repay or renegotiate at significantly higher interest rates, potentially pushing some into default.
Geopolitical Turbulence: The war in Ukraine and global supply chain disruptions add further pressure to the economic landscape. Higher energy costs and material shortages impact construction and operation costs,affecting tenants and ultimately, loan viability.
Regulatory Environment: Evolving regulatory guidelines around climate change and building standards could necessitate costly retrofits for older buildings, adding another layer of financial strain on borrowers and lenders alike.

The Cascade of Potential Risks:

If a significant portion of these loans experience distress or default, the consequences could ripple through the financial system:

Bank Stability: Banks heavily invested in commercial real estate loans could face significant losses, impacting their capital adequacy and lending capacity. This could lead to tighter credit conditions for businesses and individuals alike, hampering economic growth.
Investor Confidence: Weakening commercial real estate values could trigger a chain reaction, impacting other asset classes like real estate investment trusts (REITs) and mortgage-backed securities. This could lead to capital flight and market volatility.
Domino Effect: Defaults and distress in the commercial real estate market could have ripple effects on other sectors, particularly construction, hospitality, and retail, potentially leading to job losses and a broader economic slowdown.

385 American banks, most of them smaller, regional ones facing bankruptcy in 2024 due to bad commercial real estate loans up for renewal, according to a new report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Lower property values, increased interest rates, and declining office demand could lead more firms to default on their loans and fear of banking collapse will cause people to withdraw deposited money accelerating bank bankruptcies in USA.

Mitigating the Risks: Navigating the Labyrinth:

Avoiding these worst-case scenarios requires proactive measures from various stakeholders:

Loan Modifications: Lenders and borrowers need to work collaboratively to restructure existing loans, potentially extending terms or adjusting interest rates to reflect current market realities. Open communication and flexible solutions are crucial.
Government Intervention: Policymakers could consider targeted interventions like tax breaks or loan guarantee programs to incentivise investment and stabilise the sector. Measures to address affordability concerns in housing markets could also indirectly support commercial real estate by boosting tenant demand.
Industry Adaptation: The commercial real estate industry itself needs to embrace innovation and adaptability. Exploring alternative uses for struggling properties, embracing hybrid work models in office spaces, and fostering sustainable energy solutions can enhance viability and attract new tenants.
Diversification Strategies: Lenders need to diversify their loan portfolios to minimize exposure to any single sector. This could involve increasing their focus on sectors less vulnerable to economic downturns, like healthcare or infrastructure.

A Call for Vigilance and Collaboration:

The year 2024 looms large as a potential flashpoint for the American financial system. The fate of these maturing commercial property loans hangs in the balance, with their renegotiation holding the key to stability or potential turmoil. Vigilance, open communication, and proactive measures from lenders, borrowers, policymakers, and the industry as a whole are crucial to navigate this challenge and mitigate the risks. Ignoring the ticking time bomb will only amplify its potential explosion. By understanding the complexities of the situation and working together, we can chart a course towards a smooth renegotiation and a resilient financial future for America and beyond.

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Pros and Cons Of Economic Migration into UK and USA

Trying to take wokeness out of key business risk management threats and opportunities

Can Economic Migrants Be the Recessionary Storm’s Lifeline? A 2024 Outlook for UK and USA

As storm clouds gather on the economic horizon, recessionary whispers turn into anxious roars in both the UK and the USA. In this tumultuous climate, a fascinating question emerges: Could economic migrants potentially act as a life raft, mitigating the damage of a potential recession in 2024?

As an expert economic analyst ( Keith Lewis ), I delve into this intricate issue, dissecting the potential role of economic migration in weathering the coming economic storm in these two major economies.

Buoying the Economy in Rough Seas:

Several arguments propose that economic migrants can serve as a buffer against recessionary forces:

Labour force resilience: With skilled and willing newcomers filling critical labour gaps, particularly in sectors facing shortages, economic migrants can bolster productivity and output. This can stabilise the economy and counteract downward trends, as evidenced by the contribution of migrant workers to sectors like UK healthcare and US agriculture.
Demand lifeline: By injecting fresh purchasing power into the economy, migrants can stimulate businesses and create jobs. This can boost aggregate demand, a crucial driver of economic recovery, as research by the OECD suggests with increased migration boosting GDP growth in several European countries.
Innovation anchor: Migrants often bring a wealth of entrepreneurial spirit and skills, driving business creation and innovation. This can foster economic growth and generate employment opportunities, potentially alleviating recessionary pressures, as demonstrated by the significant role of immigrants in US startup ecosystems.
Fiscal stability: As migrant workers contribute through income taxes and payroll deductions, they can bolster government revenue streams. This can provide crucial budgetary resources for social programs and infrastructure investments, helping governments navigate and mitigate the impact of a recession, as analyses in the UK suggest regarding the positive fiscal contribution of immigration.

However, navigating these turbulent waters necessitates caution:

Wage suppression: An influx of migrant workers can put downward pressure on wages,particularly for low-skilled jobs.This can dampen consumer spending and exacerbate inequalities, hindering overall economic growth, as studies in the US have shown in specific sectors.
Social tensions: Large-scale migration can strain social services and resources, potentially leading to public anxieties and fueling xenophobia.This can make it politically challenging to maintain open borders, even with potential economic benefits, as witnessed in the current political climates of both the UK and the USA.
Integration hurdles: Successful integration of migrants into the workforce and society is crucial for maximising their economic contribution. Language barriers, cultural differences, and lack of recognition of foreign qualifications can hinder integration, limiting the positive economic impact of migration. Robust policies promoting skill recognition and language training are essential to overcome these hurdles.

Navigating the Choppy Waters of 2024:

Assessing the evidence requires acknowledging the complexities of this issue. Studies on the direct link between economic migration and recessionary tendencies remain inconclusive, with varying results depending on factors like the skillsets of migrants, existing labour market conditions, and government policies. A tailored approach, considering specific national contexts, is crucial.

Charting the Course in 2024 and Beyond:

To leverage the potential benefits of economic migration while mitigating potential drawbacks in 2024 and beyond, both the UK and the USA can consider the following:

Skill-based migration strategies: Prioritising the entry of migrants with skills in high demand to address labour shortages and boost productivity, ensuring a win-win for both businesses and the economy.
Effective integration programs: Investing in language training, skills recognition, and cultural orientation programs can facilitate smooth integration, maximising the positive economic contribution of migrants and fostering social cohesion.
Robust social safety nets: Ensuring adequate social services and resources for both native and migrant populations can mitigate potential tensions and prevent economic hardship during a recession.
Data-driven policymaking: Continuously monitoring and analysing the impacts of migration policies on both the economy and social fabric is crucial for evidence-based policy adjustments and ensuring responsible management of migration in the face of economic challenges.

Conclusion:

While economic migrants cannot entirely prevent a recession, they can potentially play a crucial role in minimising its impact and expediting economic recovery. However, it is essential to acknowledge the complexities and potential challenges associated with migration. Openness to talent, coupled with responsible management, integration efforts, and data-driven policymaking, can harness the potential of economic migration to navigate the choppy waters of 2024 and build resilient economies for the future. Remember, weathering economic storms requires a balanced approach, embracing the potential of diverse resources while ensuring responsible and inclusive practices.

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Greatest Geopolitical Risks 2024

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The Looming Shadow: Navigating the Labyrinth of Geopolitical Risks in 2024

The world in 2023 stands at a crossroads. As the shadow of a global pandemic recedes, new anxieties grip the international landscape. Tensions simmer in familiar hotspots, while emerging threats whisper on the horizon. In this labyrinth of uncertainties, one question burns bright: what will be the greatest geopolitical risk in 2024?

Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but anticipating and preparing for potential storms is the essence of responsible leadership. While pinpointing a singular “greatest” risk might be an oversimplification, we can examine four contenders each capable of casting a long, disruptive shadow in 2024:

1. The Dragon and the Tiger: Escalating Tensions in the Taiwan Strait:

The Taiwan Strait, a narrow waterway separating mainland China and the self-governing island of Taiwan, has long been a tinderbox of geopolitical tension. China, viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province, refuses to renounce the use of force in achieving reunification. Taiwan, on the other hand, maintains robust democratic institutions and enjoys strong international support, particularly from the United States.

In 2024, several factors could elevate the risk of confrontation in the Taiwan Strait:

Increased Chinese military assertiveness: Beijing’s recent actions, like frequent incursions into Taiwanese airspace and military drills simulating island invasion, signal a growing determination to assert its dominance.
Taiwan’s presidential elections: Scheduled for January 2024, the elections could see the victory of a pro-independence candidate, further inflaming Chinese grievances.
Miscalculations and accidents: Unforeseen incidents, either military mishaps or deliberate provocations, could spiral into an unintended conflict with devastating consequences.

The potential ramifications of a Taiwan Strait conflict are immense. A full-scale war could trigger a massive humanitarian crisis, disrupt global supply chains, and plunge the world into a new era of Cold War-esque tensions.

2. The Ukrainian Quagmire: War’s Long Shadow and Spillover Risks:

The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to cast a long, dark shadow over Europe and the global order. Even if a resolution were reached in 2024, the war’s legacy will extend far beyond the battlefield. Here are some potential avenues for risk:

Protracted conflict and instability: Even a ceasefire wouldn’t guarantee lasting peace. A simmering conflict in Ukraine could destabilise the region, create a humanitarian crisis, and strain international relations.
Spillover effects into neighbouring countries: The war could trigger unrest or refugee crises in bordering nations like Moldova, Belarus, and the Baltic states.
Weapons proliferation and escalation: The possibility of Russia or Ukraine resorting to unconventional weapons or dragging other powers into the conflict cannot be entirely discounted.

The war in Ukraine has already disrupted the global food and energy markets, impacting economies worldwide. A further escalation could exacerbate these vulnerabilities, leading to economic hardship and political instability in vulnerable regions.

3. Iran’s Nuclear Tightrope: Unveiling the Bomb or Stepping Back from the Brink?

Iran’s nuclear programme remains a contentious issue, raising concerns about its potential for weapons development and regional instability. In 2024, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear ambitions could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape:

Collapse of the JCPOA: The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, currently hangs by a thread. Its collapse could pave the way for Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities,raising the specter of a military strike from Israel or the United States.
Internal political dynamics: The political climate in Iran could influence its approach to the nuclear issue. Hardliners gaining ascendancy could increase the risk of confrontation, while moderates gaining ground could offer an opportunity for renewed diplomacy.
Regional proxy conflicts: Iran’s support for Shia militias across the Middle East could exacerbate existing tensions and potentially trigger wider regional conflicts.

A nuclear-armed Iran could reshape the Middle East power dynamics, posing a significant threat to Israel and its allies. It could also trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, further destabilising an already volatile part of the world.

4. Climate Change and the Looming Resource Wars:

While traditionally considered a non-traditional security threat, climate change is increasingly recognised as a potential driver of geopolitical instability. In 2024, its impact could become more pronounced through:

Resource scarcity and competition: Water scarcity, food insecurity, and energy shortages driven by climate change could exacerbate existing resource competition, potentially leading to conflicts over crucial resources.
Mass migration and displacement: Climate-induced migration could strain social and political systems in receiving countries, potentially triggering unrest and xenophobia.

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Supply Chain Risk Management 2024

How will you manage your supply chain risks in 2024?

Top 10 Supply Chain Management Trends on the Horizon in 2024

As the world continues to grapple with disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and climate change, supply chain management is undergoing a period of rapid transformation. Organisations are embracing digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies to enhance their supply chains and build resilience in the face of uncertainty.

In this article, we will explore the top 10 supply chain management trends that are expected to shape the industry in 2024 and beyond. These trends encompass technological advancements, strategic approaches, and evolving consumer demands that will redefine the way supply chains operate.

1. Digital Supply Chain As the Backbone of Resilience

The digital supply chain has emerged as the overarching trend driving supply chain transformation. It encompasses the integration of digital technologies, such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data analytics, to streamline operations, enhance visibility, and optimise decision-making.

Organisations are moving away from traditional paper-based processes and siloed systems towards a connected and data-driven supply chain ecosystem. This digital transformation is enabling businesses to gain real-time insights into their operations, predict disruptions, and respond proactively to changing market conditions.

2. Big Data and Analytics Driving Insights-Driven Decisions

Big data and analytics are playing a crucial role in extracting valuable insights from the vast amounts of data generated across the supply chain. Organisations are leveraging data analytics to identify patterns, optimise inventory management, improve demand forecasting, and enhance customer service.

Advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, are enabling businesses to anticipate disruptions, simulate scenarios, and make informed decisions that optimise supply chain performance.

3. Artificial Intelligence Revolutionising Supply Chain Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming supply chain operations by automating tasks, enhancing decision-making, and enabling predictive insights. AI applications are being used to automate repetitive tasks, such as data entry and order processing, freeing up human workers to focus on more strategic initiatives.

AI is also being used to optimise warehouse operations, manage transportation routes, and personalise customer experiences. AI-powered forecasting models are improving demand prediction accuracy, reducing inventory costs, and ensuring product availability.

4. Supply Chain Investments: Balancing Systems and Talent

Investment in supply chain systems and talent is essential for building a resilient and adaptable supply chain. Organisations are investing in modern supply chain management software, cloud-based platforms, and data analytics tools to enhance their technological capabilities.

Alongside these technological investments, organisations are also prioritising the development of their supply chain workforce. This includes providing training on digital technologies, fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making, and attracting and retaining top talent.

5. End-to-End Visibility, Traceability, and Location Intelligence

End-to-end visibility, traceability, and location intelligence are becoming increasingly important for supply chain transparency and risk management. Organisations are implementing technologies such as RFID tags, sensors, and IoT devices to track goods throughout the supply chain, from origin to delivery.

This real-time visibility enables businesses to monitor product quality, identify potential disruptions, and proactively address issues. It also enhances customer satisfaction by providing real-time tracking information and delivery updates.

6. Disruption and Risk Management: Embracing Agility and Resilience

Supply chains are facing an increasing number of disruptions, from natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts to technological advancements and changing consumer demands. Organisations are shifting their focus from traditional disaster recovery plans to proactive risk management strategies.

Building a resilient supply chain involves identifying potential risks, assessing their impact, and implementing mitigation strategies. It also requires the ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and respond to disruptions in a timely and effective manner.

7. Agility and Resilience: Adapting to Changing Demands

Consumer expectations are constantly evolving, and organisations must adapt their supply chains to meet these demands. Customers are demanding faster delivery times, more personalised products, and greater transparency.

Supply chains need to be agile enough to respond to these changing demands, quickly introduce new products, and personalise customer experiences. This requires a flexible and adaptable supply chain infrastructure that can accommodate rapid changes.

8. Cybersecurity: Protecting Critical Supply Chain Assets

Supply chains are increasingly becoming targets for cyberattacks, as they represent a critical component of global commerce. Organisations are prioritising cybersecurity measures to protect their supply chain assets and prevent disruptions caused by cyberattacks.

Cybersecurity strategies include implementing robust access controls, educating employees on cybersecurity risks, and regularly monitoring supply chain systems for potential threats.

9. Green and Circular Supply Chains: A Sustainable Future

Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important factor in supply chain management. Organisations are adopting green and circular supply chain practices to reduce their environmental impact and contribute to a more sustainable future.

Green supply chains are focusing on resource efficiency.

10. Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS): A Strategic Lever for Flexibility

Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS) is emerging as a strategic lever for organisations seeking flexibility and efficiency in their supply chain operations. SCAaS involves outsourcing non-core supply chain functions to specialised providers, allowing organisations to focus on their core competencies.

SCaaS providers offer a range of services, including logistics, transportation, warehousing, and inventory management. This allows organisations to access expertise and resources without the burden of managing these functions in-house.

Conclusion

The supply chain landscape is undergoing a period of rapid transformation driven by technological advancements, evolving consumer demands, and the need for resilience. Organisations that embrace digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies will be well-positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.

The top 10 supply chain management trends on the horizon in 2024 highlight the critical role of technology, data, and strategic partnerships in building resilient and adaptable supply chains. By embracing these trends, organisations can optimise their operations, enhance customer satisfaction, and achieve sustainable growth.

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Threats To Eurozone Banks Businesses and People

Understand the growing threat of financial collapse

The Dangers to Businesses and People from Eurozone Bank Stress and Loan Defaults: An Expert Perspective

The Eurozone banking sector is facing a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and increased loan defaults. These factors are putting stress on banks’ balance sheets and making it more difficult for them to lend to businesses and consumers. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences for businesses and people across the Eurozone.

The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on Businesses

Businesses rely on banks to provide them with the credit they need to operate and grow. When banks are under stress, they are more likely to tighten lending standards and raise interest rates. This can make it difficult for businesses to get the loans they need to invest in new equipment, hire new employees, and expand their operations. As a result, businesses may be forced to cut back on their spending, which can lead to slower economic growth and job losses.

In addition, businesses that are unable to obtain loans from banks may turn to riskier forms of financing, such as borrowing from high-interest lenders or taking on more debt. This can increase their financial risk and make them more vulnerable to economic downturns.

The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on People

People also rely on banks for a variety of financial services, such as checking and savings accounts, mortgages, and auto loans. When banks are under stress, they may reduce their hours of operation, close branches, and increase fees. This can make it more difficult for people to access the financial services they need.

In addition, if banks are forced to raise interest rates, this will make it more expensive for people to borrow money. This could lead to an increase in household debt and make it more difficult for people to make ends meet.

The Dangers of Loan Defaults

Loan defaults are a major concern for banks because they can significantly erode their capital. When a borrower defaults on a loan, the bank loses the money it lent out, and it may also have to pay legal fees and other expenses to collect the debt. This can quickly eat into the bank’s capital, which is the money it needs to operate and withstand financial shocks.

If banks are not able to maintain adequate capital levels, they may be forced to reduce their lending activities or even go bankrupt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, as it would make it even more difficult for businesses and consumers to get the credit they need.

Policy Options to Address Eurozone Bank Stress

There are a number of policy options that could be taken to address Eurozone bank stress and reduce the risk of loan defaults. These include:

Providing additional regulatory capital relief to banks: This would help banks to build up their capital buffers and make them more resilient to financial shocks.
Encouraging banks to securitise their loans: Securitisation is a process of pooling loans together and selling them to investors as securities. This can help banks to reduce their exposure to individual borrowers and spread out their risk.
Implementing stricter lending standards: This would help to ensure that banks are only lending to borrowers who are able to repay their loans.
Improving the quality of credit data: This would help banks to make better lending decisions and reduce the risk of loan defaults.

Conclusion

Eurozone bank stress and loan defaults pose a significant threat to businesses and people across the Eurozone. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences. Policymakers need to take action to address these challenges and reduce the risk of a financial crisis.

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Poor project management in UK

Making Britain great!

Why the UK Cannot Complete Major Infrastructure Projects on Time and Within Budget

The UK has a long history of struggling to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This has led to a number of high-profile delays and cost overruns, as well as a growing public frustration with the way in which infrastructure projects are managed.

There are a number of factors that contribute to the UK’s poor record on infrastructure delivery. These include:

A lack of long-term planning and strategic thinking. The UK government has often been accused of adopting a short-term approach to infrastructure planning, which has led to a lack of consistency and continuity.This has made it difficult to develop a long-term pipeline of projects that can be delivered efficiently.
A complex and fragmented procurement process. The UK’s procurement process is often complex and time-consuming,which can lead to delays and cost overruns. This is partly due to the fact that there is a lack of standardisation and consistency across different government departments and agencies.
A lack of expertise in managing large infrastructure projects. There is a shortage of skilled project managers in the UK, which can make it difficult to find the right people to lead and manage complex projects. This is compounded by the fact that many project managers in the UK are not properly trained or experienced.
A lack of political will to make tough decisions. The UK government has often been unwilling to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This is partly due to a fear of political backlash, but it is also due to a lack of understanding of the importance of infrastructure investment.

These factors have all contributed to a culture of risk aversion within the UK’s infrastructure industry. This has led to a focus on minimising risks rather than maximising value for money. As a result, projects are often over-engineered and over-specified, which leads to delays and cost overruns.

How to improve the UK’s record on infrastructure delivery

There are a number of things that the UK government can do to improve its record on infrastructure delivery. These include:

Develop a long-term infrastructure plan. The UK government needs to develop a long-term infrastructure plan that sets out the country’s infrastructure needs for the next 20 to 30 years. This plan should be based on a clear understanding of the country’s economic and social needs, and it should be regularly reviewed and updated.
Streamline the procurement process. The UK government needs to streamline the procurement process to make it more efficient and transparent.This could be done by standardising procurement procedures across different government departments and agencies, and by making more use of technology.
Invest in training and skills development. The UK government needs to invest in training and skills development to ensure that there is a sufficient supply of skilled project managers. This could be done by supporting professional development programs and by providing funding for apprenticeships and other training initiatives.
Make tough decisions. The UK government needs to be willing to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This includes making decisions about project scope, risks, and procurement.
Focus on value for money. The UK government needs to focus on value for money when delivering infrastructure projects. This means ensuring that projects are delivered to the highest possible standard, while also ensuring that they are delivered on time and within budget.
Improve project management practices. The UK government needs to improve project management practices across the public sector. This could be done by providing training and support to project managers, and by developing and implementing project management standards.
Increase investment in infrastructure. The UK government needs to increase investment in infrastructure. This will help to address the country’s infrastructure deficit and create jobs.
Publicly disclose project details. The UK government needs to publicly disclose all project details, including costs, risks, and timelines. This will help to improve transparency and accountability.
Appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister. The UK government needs to appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister who will be responsible for overseeing the delivery of all major infrastructure projects.

By taking these steps, the UK government can improve its record on infrastructure delivery and ensure that future projects are delivered on time and within budget.

In addition to the above, I would also like to add that the UK government needs to adopt a more collaborative approach to infrastructure delivery. This means working more closely with the private sector, as well as with local communities. By working together, the government and the private sector can share risks and expertise, and develop innovative solutions to infrastructure challenges.

The UK government also needs to be more open to using new technologies, such as modular construction and 3D printing. These technologies can help to reduce the time and cost of delivering infrastructure projects.

Finally, the UK government needs to be more accountable for its performance.

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Poor project management in the UK

How can a business survive during a recession

What should a business do during a recession?

What should a business do during a recession

Many very large businesses have already announced profit warnings. others have stopped recruiting. Central banks are stopping the release of cheap money into the economy. we have said for sometime now, that a global recession is coming to your business. have you prepared your business? What are you waiting for?

Rising unemployment is a common painful fact of a recession. With the current shortage of skills and high employment levels, many are burying their head in the sand about the economic factors which will bring about a global recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Too busy with other problems to think that far ahead, I hear you say? an understandable retort when business resources are limited. however, if you only invest your time and money in fighting current fires, you will always be reactive fighting current fires. taking some time to be more proactive, will enable you to breathe more easily and fight fewer fires.

How can your business prepare for and weather the coming global recession storm:

Simply battening down the hatches may not be the way to survive. Waiting for the storm to blow over may result in your business being blown away!
Stopping your investment in the right places of your business would be a mistake. knowing which parts of your business are the right parts is the tricky question.
Now, before the storm, maybe the time to review your business strategy and come up with an alternative risk management strategy to survive the change in business environment.

Will your business survive and thrive during a recession, perhaps a longer depression?

How can a business grow during a recession

Do you think keeping what you’ve got is the only business strategy to survive a long recession? Could you grow your way out of a recession:

Cutting your customer base yourself may be one way to shore-up your business resilience. Most of a business profit comes from a small percentage of its customer base. If your customers just bring turnover not profit they may sink your business not save it!
Boosting your productivity maybe an easier win then you think. Working smarter with your existing resources and assets will help your business sweat out more money.
Reaching out to more customers and markets maybe a better way to survive. Some of your competitors may have too much fat on their prices. Others may be great businesses but too much debt holes their business development strategy and they may go under. Other businesses will have opportunities from the survival of the fittest not necessarily the biggest or best.

Some businesses and business owners will get rich during the coming global recession. Your business will be affected by the recession, but it doesn’t need to be all bad or fatal.

Business strategy during recession

Managing debt down will be a crucial part of survival. That does not mean stopping spending. It means taking care to spend your money on the right things during a recession.

You need to look again at your decision-making. What are your priorities in a recession, compared to normal business environment?

Laying off workers may be a lazy business strategy. it is an easy obvious way to cut costs but it may mean that you are cutting your own business throat.

What is your business really good at? How can you do more of it? controlling cash flow and unnecessary spending is important, but that does not mean cutting investment in your business future.

Just because a business is big does not mean it will survive, nor does it mean that small businesses will suffer the most during a recession. Some of the biggest businesses that look amazing may have underlying issues that will sink them. small businesses who react quickly may be able to pick up the pieces.

How does the economy affect businesses

The more resilient a business is, the more likely it will be to survive the multitude of risks facing businesses in the current business climate. As a business leader you may not have control over all risk events which occur in the global economy, but you can be prepared for every eventuality.

Recessions affect different businesses differently. Do you understand what could sink your business? Are your risk control measures working? Have you put in place appropriate risk control measures for impending imminent future risks that may develop. is your business prepared?

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How can leaders improve decision-making

How to improve decision-making in an organisation with BusinessRiskTV

How to improve decision-making in business

Successful business leaders:

Identify the internal and external risk factors driving the key risks impacting negatively and positively on your business objectives.
Evaluate options with best perception of risks and establish prioritisation of limited business resources where best outcomes can be anticipated.
Navigate risks and uncertainty proactively.

Formalise your decision-making process so you can monitor your good and bad decisions to learn lessons you can act upon to improve your business performance through better business decisions.

Guide your business through the coming uncertainties of your business environment

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Your strategic operational and project decisions will create or destroy your future success in business

Cost effective decision-making in dynamic business environment requires business leaders to understand key business risks. Rethink what will be critical to your success in business.

The fast-paced complex nature of the business world means business leaders must have confidence in their decision-making processes and practices to ensure they make the best decision possible at the right time. Often the right decision is required sooner than later.

Decision-making can be worked on to improve your risk management skills. You need to know how your leadership decisions will impact on your business, preferably before you implement your decision.

BusinessRiskTV can help know more before you act.

How can leaders improve decision-making

Embracing uncertainty in business

Overcoming the difficulties of managing uncertainty with BusinessRiskTV

How can a business grow in uncertain times

Can you shape your business destiny:

Is your business prepared for any change in business climate?
Do you have a business plan recognising opportunities to grow through any crisis of fortune?
What is your strategy for growing through uncertain times?

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Decision making under uncertainty

Procrastination or failing to take risks can be as damaging as taking calculated risks to achieve business objectives. The uncertainty in business environment is not going to go away. Waiting for the right time may mean you wait forever and it still works out badly for your business.

A recession, even a depression, can be a good tome to beat your competition through business growth

A global recession is coming. It may even turn into years of depression. You may need to rethink your business during the uncertainty that comes during the bad months, perhaps years, ahead.

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We connect with business leaders to manage the risks during heightened uncertainty. The threats to your business have rarely been greater. However, the riskiest business environments create the best tomes for faster business growth.

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Embracing Risk in Business: Overcoming Failure and Breaking the Status Quo Trap

If you want success in business you have to take risks and know that if you made bad decisions Plan B, C or D will enable you to recover and still move forward.

In the dynamic world of business, success often hinges on the ability to take risks and make informed decisions. Entrepreneurs and business leaders know that to achieve significant growth, they must step out of their comfort zones and embrace uncertainty. This article explores the importance of risk-taking in business and how it can lead to success. Additionally, we will discuss the strategies to overcome failure, the perils of the status quo trap in decision-making, and the impact of risk on the decision-making process.

Why is risk important in business?
1.1. Driving Innovation and Growth
1.2. Seizing Opportunities in a Competitive Market
1.3. Navigating Uncertainty and Adapting to Change
1.4. Attracting Investors and Stakeholders
1.5. Learning and Personal Growth
How do you overcome business failure?
2.1. Accepting Failure as a Learning Opportunity
2.2. Analysing and Understanding the Root Causes of Failure
2.3. Reevaluating and Adjusting Strategies
2.4. Cultivating Resilience and Perseverance
2.5. Seeking Mentorship and Learning from Others’ Experiences
2.6. Leveraging Failure for Future Success
The Status Quo Trap in Decision-Making
3.1. Defining the Status Quo Trap
3.2. Recognizing the Dangers of Complacency
3.3. Assessing the Cost of Inaction
3.4. Overcoming the Status Quo Trap
3.5. Encouraging a Culture of Innovation and Change
How Does Risk Affect Decision-Making?
4.1. Rational vs. Irrational Decision-Making
4.2. Understanding Risk Appetite and Tolerance
4.3. Weighing Potential Gains and Losses
4.4. Mitigating Risks through Analysis and Planning
4.5. Balancing Risk and Reward
4.6. Incorporating Risk Management Strategies

To achieve success in business, it is imperative to recognise the significance of risk-taking and the role it plays in driving growth, innovation, and adaptability. Overcoming failure requires resilience, a willingness to learn from mistakes, and a commitment to constantly improve. Moreover, breaking free from the status quo trap empowers decision-makers to challenge conventional thinking and embrace change. By understanding the interplay between risk and decision-making, entrepreneurs can make informed choices that lead to positive outcomes and propel their businesses forward.

Remember, success in business isn’t about avoiding risks altogether but rather about managing and mitigating them effectively. Embrace the unknown, learn from failures, and dare to challenge the status quo — for it is through these actions that true success can be achieved.

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How to effectively manage risk

Increase your control over current and future business risks by acting proactively on the key risks to your business:

Identify the key risks to your business objectives
Analyse the risks
Evaluate the risks
Treat the key risks in the right priority
Monitor and review the risks

Ensure you are using your limited resources cost-effectively.

Risk management techniques to know which business risks to take and which ones not to take

Some business risks are worth taking. Others are not. Prepare for and manage key risks to your business. Develop the best strategy when taking risks to ensure net positive impact on your business objectives.

Business innovation and new business ideas are linked to risk taking. Take calculated risks to grow your business faster.

Develop a systematic way to assess the risks to your future business success. Not all the opportunities for business growth are equal. Pick the best ones for your business with tips advice and support from BusinessRiskTV.

Ways to manage business risks

With limited resources including time and money, prioritising the deployment of resources in best way is most important aspect of effective risk management.

Buying insurance is not the panacea. An insurance portfolio brings its own risk to your business.

Well worded contractual agreements and legal risk management can limit liability and wasted money.

Undertaking good supplier risk management and customer management can also stop risk events or mitigate impact on your business.

Controlling the risks from business expansion can also boost returns on increased sales or revenue.

Many risks with the potential to impact on your business are beyond your control. This is simply another good reason to control the risks within your power to control.

In a dynamic business environment it is important you fully understand your risk exposure so you can pivot and respond to change or risk events.

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Archived risk management articles

Benefits of taking risk in a business
Financial risks in business
Importance of risk-taking in business
Why do entrepreneurs take the risk to start or expand a business
Why is calculated risk-taking important
Business Risk Management Best Practice Guide
How to improve risk-taking in entrepreneurship
Importance of risk-taking in entrepreneurship

How do you manage risks better

Mega Project Management

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Project owners and operators, project managers, project contractors and megaproject stakeholders seeking help tips and support to ensure best practices maintained and best value derived from megaprojects anywhere in world. Megaprojects project intelligence and risk management best practices for big super projects in business sectors including:

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Megaproject Project Intelligence and Risk Management Best Practices Course

The Project Intelligence and Risk Management Best Practices Training Course is designed for project owner/operator professionals responsible for risk management, planning, scheduling and control over the lifecycle of megaprojects.

Calculate precisely megaproject progress on thousands of asset work steps. Achieve cost, schedule and quality targets more confidently. Build more trust and transparency into megaproject management and completion for all megaproject stakeholders. Earned Value Intelligence EVI provides a clear way to know what is the actual megaproject progress achieved every day, every week and every month of the megaproject lifecycle. Fulfill contractual and financial obligations.

Advanced work step management functionalities and EVI megaproject analytics are available on any mobile device to help answer your megaproject risk management questions when you need answers quickly and cost-effectively.
Project Intelligence Through Earned Value Intelligence

Focused on megaprojects that include a Front-End Engineering & Design (FEED) phase, the course provides the foundation to face and deal with the contractual challenges of project delivery by multiple contractors, as well as with the challenges that characterise such megaproects. These include:

Scope creep issues
Contractual claims
Cost and schedule slippages
Engineering data inconsistencies and gaps
Lack of master data
Gaps in collaborative team management
Distributed geographies of project execution parties
Non-uniform project progress tracking and reporting
Multi-contractor interface management issues
and more …

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Sustaining Business Performance

What makes a business sustainable and profitable

Figure out how to sustain your business in any economic climate. Our corporate risk management services can help guide you through the best and worst of the economic cycles. Protect your business and pivot to expand when risk events occur. Is it time to use creativity and innovative business development ideas to protect and grow your business. Drive your business growth faster, or at least ensure you survive what the world throws at your business.

Do you want to learn how to ensure sustainability of a business

Embrace the changing world. Seek out better ways of growing your business faster.

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Pick up innovative ideas for company growth

Engage the right people at the right times from our Business Intelligence sources, Knowledge Marketplace and Business Experts Hub. Business leaders need to take action to survive and prosper as the rapidly changing world can kill those businesses unwilling to change.

What makes a business sustainable and profitable

Sustaining growth in business during global recession

Sustaining Business Performance

Get help and support for your business

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How business leaders can get help and support for business protection and growth

Your business can get advice, help and knowledge or business intelligence to solve most problems. Do you ask others for help to improve your business? Entrepreneurs and business leaders are usually ambitious, independent, and optimistic—and often don’t like asking for help. However, an opportunity to quickly and practically explore potential business solutions can save you time and money.

Few people, if any, have all the best answers to common questions that need answering in a practical pragmatic way. If one solution doesn’t work for you, come back for ideas to inspire you to solve your business problem in a different way. Be positive. By finding out what doesn’t work for your business you are one step closer to finding out what will work.

If you come up against a hurdle to your business success, jump over with the help and support of BusinessRiskTV.

Why is it important to ask for help in business?

Perhaps encouragingly, because if asked people tend to want to help. If you don’t find the complete business solution to your business problem, you may find one piece of the jigsaw that is a catalyst to inspire you to complete the rest by yourself.

How do I ask for help with my business?

There are a number of ways. Some are free to BusinessRiskTV subscribers. Others are only for our members.

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Our service creates many opportunities for you to protect and grow your business faster with less uncertainty holding you back.

How do you politely ask for help?

We don’t have to work in isolation. You can get help and support for your business from BusinessRiskTV membership. In addition, we facilitate collaboration with other business leaders near you and globally, so you have opportunities to ask other like-minded business leaders how they have already overcome your business hurdles. If you ask politely, respecting their need to solve their own business problems, you will find they can offer insight into how you can improve your business, from their experience of managing their business risks.

Asking for help can lead to business growth

A balanced business risk management strategy should not just look to stop bad things happening to your business. Your business risk management strategy should explore the best business growth opportunities to help you figure out how to expand your sales profitably faster.

We offer a range of opportunities to members to enable them to explore business growth when they want to.

Complex businesses can still be improved by simple practical ideas

The best way forward for your business may not be too complicated with a different look at your problem. Sometimes a different perspective of your problem from fresh eyes can unplug the blockage to your business successfully achieving your business objectives.

Are you nurturing new business relationships?

Talking online to like-minded people can be enormously rewarding. Even if your talking more to other business leaders does nothing more than confirm your own thoughts for best business solutions for your business, it is worth investing in talking more.

Are you making the most of tour investment in your current business relationships? Maybe by inviting them into our circle of like-minded business people you can help your existing business relationships produce more for mutual benefit. For example, our business risk management tools can help you and your existing business relationships identify new business development opportunities for mutual business growth.

Asking for help can be good for your business

We are sure you are ambitious for yourself and your business. Ask others for help, and broaden your network to get it. Seeking advice support and tips from new mentors, peers, partners, suppliers and even new customers can help you to help yourself and them. Examples include but not limited to:

Mentors – want the satisfaction of helping others. You can give them a new opportunity to do so by helping your business.
Peers – can be your competition, but you may not be competing in the same marketplace. Peers in USA may not be selling in UK so happy to help you in UK. You may even discover opportunities to collaborate to cross-sell into each others market with reciprocal support.
Partners – new business partnerships, formal or informal, can be formed to explore business growth for mutual benefit.
Suppliers – may be itching for you to buy a better product they offer but a failure in communication means both you and your suppliers are missing out on faster business growth.
Customers – you may not have truly understand what they need and you have only scratched the surface of your potential working relationship.

A little more trust and transparency can be derived from better communication. We aspire to improving business risk management communication between all stakeholders in a business including the above stakeholders.

Find new innovative ways of doing business with BusinessRiskTV.

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Problem Of Scarcity

Working together we can overcome the worst

There is a finite amount of stuff available that people and businesses want. It is difficult to manage the risks of accessing, sharing and using limited resources. The problem of scarcity and choice lies at the heart of our immediate and at least medium term business risks and lifestyle quality. Scarcity requires choice from buyers and sellers.

How can we work together to overcome the problems of scarcity

Basic Economic Problem Solution

Working together to grow faster and shelter from bad risk events is the only way to survive and prosper in an increasingly dangerous world.

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Problem Of Scarcity

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How can I develop my risk management knowledge and business intelligence

BusinessRiskTV regularly hosts free risk management webcasts run by risk expert trainers for your country or industry. The risk management webcasts are free to attend from any device you normally use to access key business risk information and business intelligence. Develop your risk knowledge and business risk management skills.

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Enterprise-wide risk management educational risk management webinars and risk management workshops designed to explore common challenges business leaders face every day. Solve corporate governance, business risks and compliance (GRC) issues quicker and cheaper with help from our Business Experts Hub participating in online risk management webcasts.

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What is innovation strategy for your business in UK

Helping businesses to innovate to grow faster

Building wealth innovation stability and opportunities for people in business.

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We support businesses innovate by our business experts, business intelligence and innovative business development tools.

Create more value for your customers, your employees and yourself. Harness what is already good in your business and let us help you take your business to the next level!

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What is innovation strategy for your business in UK

In the midst of economic chaos there will be both opportunities and threats for your business

Working to help you succeed in any business environment

Subscribe to BusinessRiskTV for free risk management news alerts, opinions and reviews to inform your key business decisions on survival and business improvement.

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The pandemic, the war, the energy crisis, the food crisis and the health crisis will create economic chaos over the next couple of years. That does not mean you might as well shut up shop and go home! When chaos causes other business leaders to fold you need to become even more creative, flexible and dynamic. To prepare for the ensuing economic disaster you need to build on your hard work managing effects of pandemic to cover more issues including continuing supply problems, rising costs and bad debt. You may have thought that now a couple of years after the pandemic started you could start to breath more easily. Unfortunately the economic effects of the pandemic were smoothed out with unprecedented monetary support from global governments. However their magic money tree has died! You are on your own now. Now we will see who really are the good business leaders.

Business Leadership Articles

More: You do not have to work it out on your own. Our business experts hub is available to you. Tens of thousands of business risk managers locally and globally are in your pocket, on your phone, to help you navigate your way through this economic storm.

We do not yet know and will never know with certainty, what key risks we will have to deal with in business. This is why we are horizon scanning for you. Our risk management experts are analysing and assessing new risks. We are researching and developing new risk management solutions. Subscribe for free to BusinessRiskTV to keep up to date with potential new threats and opportunities for your business.

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In the midst of economic chaos there will be both opportunities and threats for your business

How to value a business with BusinessRiskTV

What type of business valuation are you interested in?

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The price of a share does not tell you the value of a business. The type of business valuation is key in decision-making. What business valuation you are assessing will depend on why you are making a point of valuing a business:

The value of a business an employee will want will depend on why the employee is working for a business. Some employees live from pay cheque to pay cheque and regard the business to be worth merely the value of pay received each month or week. Other employees see a business as a stepping stone to next career progression and value the business reputation in the marketplace rather than a monetary value will be of more importance. Other employees want to be fully engaged in the mission of the business and need to be kept fully onboard with business plans to place positive value in the business.
Investors traditionally have sought capital appreciation, income or both from their investment in a business. Anything that detracted from profit or revenue generation may not have been welcomed. The proliferation of the Woke Society, if you are ungenerous or socially responsible if kinder, means that ethics social responsibility and good governance (ESG) has meant that many investors want better holistic enterprise risk management (ERM) performance. New jobs have even been created at board level to reflect this, such as Chief Impact Officer responsible for every process that generates any kind of social and environmental impact (as defined by the company’s mission and values).
Customers are valuing businesses differently. Many more consumers use their spending power to punish poorly managed businesses in field of ESG or ERM, and reward businesses performing well in the ESG or ERM arena. We used the word arena deliberately as ESG or risk management in general is now often used as a show pony or window dressing when in reality the business is performing badly in the real world of managing all business risks well.

Business leaders will respond to regulation of their business but in the heavily regulated world of financial services, for example, we still find yearly evidence of poor risk management by banks despite nearly two decades passing from the time the banks nearly sent the whole world tumbling over the abyss to total societal collapse due to the banks regulators and politicians failing to manage business risks holistically well in 2008.

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Many are frightened that the next 12 to 24 months will see a long period of economic depression due to failure to manage risks well

Think inflation is bad now – you ain’t seen nothing yet! A food shortage will result in millions starving in 3rd world countries and hyper food inflation in 1st world countries. We are not going to starve but we are going to pay for poor business and economic risk management.

The share price of many businesses over the next couple of years are going to collapse. However, the same businesses value will not have fallen, just the share price. Investors including the person in the street through pensions will see the value of their retirement fund drop off a cliff. Employees will lose their pay cheque to pay cheque existence as many will lose their job. Consumers will pay more for the same or poorer products and services. What are you going to do to protect yourself?

More: Keep up to date with latest risk management news opinions and reviews along with tens of thousands of other people interest in better risk management

What can you do to manage the risks to business value?

How To Manage Business Risk — Steps To Managing Upside and Downside Business Risks Better With BusinessRiskTV Pro Risk Manager

Employees need to keep to keep abreast of the health of their employers business. They may even be wise to pick a different employer who is stronger if they can assess which businesses are strong and which businesses are weak.
Investors maybe better out of the marketplace, or keep up with regular investing. It is counter intuitive. However few can pick the moment of a bear market turning into a depression. The only good thing about a depression is that it will be a good time to invest! Likewise no one can identify the bottom of a market. One solution is to get out of the market but the other is to invest through the depression to get the benefit of the lows to compensate for the loss of the highs.
Consumers need to diversify to protect themselves from loss of money in one area. Cash is king just now. However globally governments are even destroying the value of cash in more ways than one! Real wealth is having enough money to pay for your lifestyle without needing to work, for as long as possible. You may outwardly have money but wealth is measured in financial freedom not in currency or other assets. The value of many perhaps most assets is set to fall.

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Guide To Business Enterprise Risk Management ERM — Risk Appetite and Risk Tolerance

Taking calculated risks is the business of the entrepreneur or business leaders. Taking the right risks will make your business more successful. Taking mo risk is condemning your business to a slow death, at best.

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Protecting your business from risk of recession and inflation

Surely we are not going to swing from fastest economic growth to economic depression?

Business Strategy During Recession

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How do you recession-proof your business?
How can we protect from inflation?
How to prepare for inflation at home?

The impact of recession on businesses is severe. However inflation can be the precursor of a recession. Central banks are charged with the responsibility of keeping inflation under control partly to ward against recession or depression. Healthy inflation is generally regarded as 2 percent. Many countries are experiencing at least 3 times healthy inflation. Some key economies are experiencing much more than that just now. In other words the biggest economies are suffering from very unhealthy inflation levels. Most central banks have not responded fast enough and should gave started increasing interest rates earlier to control inflation. Some have not even started to control inflation. The long-tail effect of increasing interest rates means that for next 6 months at least inflation will remain out of control. The war in Ukraine may even mean inflation is uncontrollable for years. Out if control inflation leads to a recession at best and depression at worst!

More: Discover how to spread your business risks more by expanding into new online marketplaces.

More: Reduce your business costs by buying more inexpensively with BusinessRiskTV.

Now is not the time to pat yourself on the back. Surviving pandemic was good, but the next existential threats to your business are already here or rushing towards you.

Rising inflation means that consumers and business decision-makers have the same money but it doesn’t go as far as it once did. The end result is that they buy fewer products and services. Inflation is a driver of a recession. Back to back crisis’s caused by pandemic, war, fuel, energy, fertiliser and food shortages or rising prices could result in extended global recession that turns into a global depression. The global pandemic caused the deepest recession since the Second World War and the world has used all its tools, including record low interest rates and extended Quantitative Easing QE, to scramble back out of the recession. However it means the world is particularly vulnerable just now – with economic risk management tools exhausted or trying to recover.

What Can Governments Do To Reduce Inflation

Reducing Inflation Strategies

Inflation is the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It can be caused by a variety of factors, including rising costs of production, increased demand for goods and services, and monetary policy decisions made by central banks.

Governments can take several measures to reduce inflation, including:

Monetary policy: Central banks can raise interest rates to curb inflation. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Fiscal policy: Governments can reduce government spending and increase taxes to slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Price controls: Governments can impose price controls on certain goods and services to keep prices from rising too quickly. However, this can lead to shortages and reduced incentives for producers to supply goods and services.
Supply-side policies: Governments can take steps to increase the supply of goods and services, such as by investing in infrastructure and education, and by reducing regulations that limit the ability of firms to produce goods and services.
Flexible exchange rates: Governments can allow their currency to fluctuate in value against other currencies. A stronger currency will make imports cheaper and can help to reduce inflation.
Price stability target: Central banks and governments can jointly agree on a target for inflation, and use monetary and fiscal policy to achieve that target.

It’s important to note that reducing inflation is not always the best course of action for an economy. Sometimes, a moderate level of inflation can be beneficial for economic growth, especially in developing countries. It’s important for governments to weigh the costs and benefits of different policies to reduce inflation and make the best decision for their economy.

Many central banks have an inflation target of between 2 percent and 3 percent – seen has healthy level of inflation
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In conclusion, governments have several tools at their disposal to reduce inflation, including monetary and fiscal policy, price controls, supply-side policies, flexible exchange rates, and price stability target. However, it’s important to consider the costs and benefits of each policy before implementing them.

Strategies for business survival during a recession

Businesses fold quickly during a recession. Before you know it, you are losing both suppliers and customers. Both can damage your business and even threaten an otherwise successful business survival. Set a Key Performance Indicator KPI to help you monitor your risk management in this area of your business. A Key Control Indicator KCI could be that no more than 10 percent of your key supply’s come from any single supplier. Likewise a KCI could be that no more than 10 percent comes from a single customer. If you stick to your KCI then the failure of any one customer or supplier is not going to pull your business down with their failure to manage recession risk.

What you set your KCIs at will vary depending on your financial strength, type of industry and current resources. You may never hit your KCIs but they flag up when action is needed or your progress towards better recession risk control.

Expanding your customer base is not just about expanding your business. It is about protecting your business from loss of business. Expanding your suppliers could increase the overall cost of supply during good times thereby limiting your profit. Your management team needs to decide what level of risk you are exposed to, the type of risks and your appetite and resilience to risk.

We are moving from pandemic survival to rapid business development. If you focus your energy on growing your business faster organically with new customers you can ride the economic wave through the various threats to your business.

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How To Deal With Inflation In A Business

Just before a business falls flat on its face it can seem that the world was its oyster! The world seems to be dragging itself out of the economic damage of a global pandemic. We are seeing economic expansion at or near record rates across the world. Wages are rising and many countries have unfilled job vacancies galore! What could go wrong? Answer is out of control inflation turning into a recession and high unemployment.

The world has shot its bolt. Due to the economic impact of the global pandemic central banks have slashed interest rates to the bone and in a few cases into the bone! There is no wiggle room left to cope with another economic disaster. Trouble is nobody told our political leaders and they have led us into the next economic disaster on back of an inflationary crisis on back of war, food crisis and energy crisis. You wait for a financial crisis to come around every 10 years then several come along at once!

Inflation may have given you a good opportunity to inflate your prices. The good times are slipping away. Your pricing model may have brought in easy money that will be useful. Times are changing and you may think that new opportunities are appearing for business growth.

Stay on top of your business changing needs:

Profits are cut due to rising costs due to inflationary pressures. Make sure you focus on market prices to seize opportunities appearing in your marketplace. Instead of raising your prices think about reducing your costs or making your offering more attractive to new customers.
Cash is king now! Take steps to improve or maintain cash flow. Pay later and get paid quicker.
Win new customers. Make sure you your marketing and sales development budget is working hard for you.

As interest rates rise there will be bargains. Minimise your outgoings. Reduce your overheads.

Hopefully you took advantage of cheap money. However the days of cheap money have passed or are passing. Now is the time to think about paying off debt. The rising cost of debt could pull down countries never mind companies! Make sure your business is not wasting profit on back of your cost of debt. Controlling your costs will help you to be more competitive in tightening marketplace.

World central banks need to act more quickly and more aggressively to calm inflation rates around the world to prevent a global recession and perhaps even global depression from 2023 onwards. This includes increasing interest rates and increasing interest rates in bigger leaps and bounds.

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Healthy Inflation Level

What is a healthy level of inflation

A healthy level of inflation is generally considered to be around 2% per year.

Why 2 percent?

2% inflation per year is considered healthy because it allows for some economic growth while still maintaining stability in the purchasing power of money. It is a rate that is low enough to prevent rapid changes in the cost of goods and services, but high enough to encourage investments and borrowing. However, the specific level of inflation that is considered healthy can vary depending on a country’s economic conditions and goals.

Who thinks this?

The idea that 2% inflation is a healthy level is widely accepted among central banks and economists. This is because it provides a balance between stable prices and economic growth, and has been found to be compatible with low unemployment and stable financial markets in many countries. The Federal Reserve in the United States, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, among others, target an inflation rate of around 2%.

How do you reach this target?

Central banks use a variety of tools to reach their inflation target. The most common method is through the manipulation of interest rates. By adjusting interest rates, central banks can influence borrowing costs, which in turn can affect spending and investment decisions. This can then influence the overall level of demand in the economy, which affects prices.

In addition to interest rates, central banks can also use other monetary policy tools, such as buying and selling government securities in the open market, to reach their inflation target.

In some cases, central banks may also use forward guidance, where they provide information about their future plans for interest rates, to influence market expectations and help reach their inflation target.

It’s worth noting that hitting an exact inflation target can be challenging, and central banks may sometimes miss their target due to various economic and financial factors outside of their control.

Is inflation transitory?

Protecting your business from risk of recession and inflation

Risk Based Approach To Business Success

Manage your business better with more confidence

Risk based approach in business management. The benefits of risk-based approach include a better understanding of what is really important for your business success. Assess and manage your business risks better.

Identify the key risks for your business to ensure you know what you need to focus your mind and money on.
Take action to maximise your ability to maintain and boost your business performance.
Monitor your progress towards your business objectives in a systematic way to minimise gaps and protect against changing risk exposure.
Make best use of your limited assets and resources to avoid wasted money and effort.
Develop a flexible business management strategy to better manage the dynamic world of business.

Think more systematically about your business development.

How do you use risk based approach in business

Find out more about free business risk management newsletters and Risk Alerts for your country and industry. Engage with like-minded business leaders to grow your business faster with less uncertainty. Develop your business risk management skills and knowledge with online risk management training courses and workshops.

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Get the best people to help you fix your business problems. Our risk experts hub can help you parachute in help at the right time more affordably for the correct amount of time. Sharpen your competitive edge to help your business succeed. Track the latest risk management information to inform your business decision-making process. Ensure you are not wasting money on poor business options and maximise the return on your available cash.

How can you solve the business problems holding your business back

Identify and clearly define the threats and opportunities impacting on your business objectives. When you understand the issues that could impact on your business you can focus your money and time on the things that matter to your business success or failure.
Pursue the opportunities most likely to help you achieve your business objectives.
Adopt a risk management process which will help you make better business decisions by reducing uncertainty.
Evaluate the solutions to your most important business issues to maximise the return on your investment of time Nd money.
Prioritise your risk management actions to maximise your business protection and seize new business opportunities quicker.

What are common business problems

Uncertainty is not managed cost effectively. Either too much or too little risk is taken in pursuit of business success.
Poor financial management can lead to wasted money reducing chance of success or increasing risk of failure.
Failure to monitor business progress or lack of progress. Know your key performance indicators and monitor them regularly to enable you to take early corrective action. Even the best business plans fail a little when put into practice.
Failure to comply with the rules of your business. Failure to comply can impact on you personally.
Failing to call upon the best people to help you achieve your business objectives could mean your amazing business ideas fail, not because you were mistaken, but due to failure to implement your business plans in best way.
Failing to gather risk information to help you make best business decisions at the right time.
Failing to use best tools plant and equipment may mean you just can’t compete with your competitors cost effectively to survive in business.

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Selling through new channels or into new markets with BusinessRiskTV

Expand your customer base to include similar people who are not currently customers. Increase your market share online. Without significantly increasing your effort you put into sales development increase your share of online sales in your country or industry. Our innovative approach to engaging new customers online will grow your profit faster.

How to engage more customers online

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Get ahead of your competitors in the race to grow your customer base. More easily market your business products or services to wider audience. Find new niche markets presently underserved by your competitors.

Our innovative marketing and sales development will engage your target market so you can sell more to them

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Our business experts and business leaders on our experts hub have the answers to your questions. Avoid the pain of making your own mistakes in business. Instead learn the lessons from other peoples mistakes and experiences in business.

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Choice paralysis is a consequence of too many choices. Every business leader gets the rewards or penalties they have earned from the choices they make in their business.

There are disadvantages of having too many choices. It is impossible for every choice in front of you to maximise the return in your investment of time and money. We help you to increase the likelihood of success deriving from your business decisions and maximise the size of the benefits coming from your business decisions.

Paralysis can be a consequence of having too many choices
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The benefits of too many choices are that you have before you an amazing opportunity to grow your business faster. We help you to pick the best opportunities and make the best opportunities deliver the best results for your business.

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If you get your business risk management strategies right you will build in business resilience for any business risk events. If you get your business risk management strategies wrong your business performance may falter at best or your business may suffer fatal catastrophic collapse at worst.

Business risk management strategies for dealing with unpredictable risk events

Is a risk management strategy possible for all your key risk events? Can you predict what will happen to your business in future and therefore prepare your business for all key risk events?

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If you identify all the key threats and opportunities for your business plans you can make the most efficient use of your limited resources to prepare for all risk management actions.

Having a dynamic risk management strategy will meet your future risk management needs

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Dealing with unpredictable future requires dynamic risk assessment process. Your key risk assessments are ongoing not a one-off exercise.

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Inform your business business decision making in an unpredictable business environment with business risk management news opinions and reviews. Learn from business risk management experts and industry leaders during online business risk management workshops. Network with leaders in business to grow and protect your business better. Find a business mentor or partner to support your business growth in uncertain times. Create a dynamic business strategy to seize new business opportunities before your competitors. Ensure your risk management process is able to manage key threats and opportunities optimally.

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How To Overcome Threats In Business

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Focusing your limited business resources on key business threats maximises your business resilience and minimises risk of business interruption or even catastrophic failure. Fulfill your business targets more easily with better business risk management. Stop wasting time and money on unnecessary business losses. Maximise your profit.

Learn how to cope better with threats to your business plan with BusinessRiskTV

Identify assess and manage the biggest threats to your business.

Can we eliminate threats? Unlikely that most key threats of being in business can be eliminated. However most can be mitigated or minimised. With limited time and money for risk management, we need to focus our resources on threats that will bring greatest return.
How do you change threats to opportunities? During the business risk management process you will realise that not only can you reduce threat from bad risk events but you will identify new ways of doing things that will enable you to seize new business growth opportunities.
What are the threats of a business? The key threats to manage are the ones that could impact on your business objectives. Within the same industry, one business can have different key threats that need to be managed differently from a competitor in same business. Your business risk management plan needs to be bespoke to your business.

How do you deal with opportunities and threats? Your business risk management strategy should encompass both threats and opportunities not just threats to maximise benefit of time and money invested in enterprise risk management methodology.

How to manage threats to your business

We provide a range of risk management services to help inform your business decision making process. From providing business risk management news opinions and risk reviews to business risk management mentoring and training to enterprise risk management audits.

External Threats and Internal Threats To A Business

Some threats come from outside your business. Other business threats come from within. Knowing what you can and cannot control is part of developing the best business risk management strategy for your business. You need to look outwards to the horizon to fully assess external business risk drivers. You need to look deep inside your own business to appropriately and adequately assess the real risks within your business.

What are the major opportunities and threats in your business you can expect to experience

Our business risk management services can be focused on just your industry or your country.

Which of the company’s strengths can be used to take advantage of the identified opportunities

Make sure you make full use of your business strengths to fully exploit your opportunities for faster business growth.

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Business Risks And Opportunities

What are risks and opportunities in business

Managing opportunities and risks better with BusinessRiskTV. Business opportunities come with business risks. External and internal risk drivers will impact on business objectives negatively and positively. Controlling business risks and opportunities can secure greater business success and build stronger business resilience. Identify assess and control business risks better with articles and videos on BusinessRiskTV. Monitor business risks to your business objectives to protect and grow your business faster.

What are the risk and opportunities in business

Managing business risks is a critical business issue all business leaders face. However not all business leaders face the same business risks. Similar businesses can have the same business risks but may have different resources deployed in business risk management. Opportunities for business leaders to grow their business fast are always available to you if you look and take the best course of action. Understand the top business risks facing your business with help tips and support from BusinessRiskTV

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How do you ensure your survival in business

How do you survive and prosper in business?

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Business Survival Strategies and Tactics

Connect with key business leaders and business management experts to find the secrets to solving your business problems. Find out how to help your business survive current and future business risks. Be more confident about your ability to survive any risk event.

How do you ensure business survival

Improve your business risk management plan with help from BusinessRiskTV risk management experts.

Protect your business assets better. Use your available business resources more efficiently to make your money go further.

Top Business Survival Tips

What are secrets in business?

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Prevent your business succumbing to known and unknown business threats.
Review your business costs to develop more business resilience.
Develop contingency plan to continue regardless of risk events.

Standing still May threaten your business survival. You therefore need to identify cost effective ways to grow your business faster.

Survival Strategies In Marketing

Reach out to new customers online today tomorrow and more sustainably with more affordable business marketing and advertising strategies.

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The greatest risk is not taking one

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Taking Risks To Achieve More In Business With BusinessRiskTV

Supporting More Informed Decision-Making

Do not manage your business from the stand point of fear of business risks. Overcoming fear in business starts with improving your ability to inform your decision-making. With less risk information you have more uncertainty. Increased uncertainty increases negative impact on your business objectives.

Success normally comes from taking controlled risks not hunkering down, crossing fingers or hoping it will work out for you

Risk Appetite and Risk Tolerance

Even if you do not seek business risks, they will find you! Risk taking is part and parcel of the job description of business leaders. Most business leaders seek greater rewards from their business. Greater rewards normally come from taking on more risk. Taking on more risk does not automatically mean you need to take on a higher level of risk. If you control the risks you take on the net level of risk can remain the same, but the rewards can be greater.

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Learn how to improve your business decision-making capability to boost your business performance

Increase the chance of success in business by improving the quality quantity and speed of your decisions. Improve your decisions by improving the risk information at your disposal and the risk management tools and techniques you use to help you make decisions.

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The greatest risk is not taking one

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Risk Profile v Risk Appetite – Risk tolerance vs risk appetite is important to understand. If you do not know what your risk profile is you cannot manage your business risks better. Could you increase your appetite for risk to achieve more business success? What is your risk tolerance?
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Managing business risk with more confidence to perform better

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Build your business risk management capability and confidence

Boost your business performance. Understand your business risk profile to inform your business decision making process.

Risk Management Confidence

Not only can you improve your risk management capability but you can increase confidence in your risk management system.

Are you asking the right questions about the key threats to you business? Do you consistently look out for and review business opportunities for growth? If you do not have a risk management system in place your business decision making may be working but is it working well?

What is your appetite for risk? Is this reflected across the whole organisation. Your risk management culture should reflect the attitude to risk of its business leaders for a consistent approach that is less confusing or contradictory further down the organisation. If you are not all singing from same hymn sheet you are losing productivity. In addition you maybe taking too much risk or not enough risk to achieve your business objectives.

Everybody should be clear about their role in your risk management framework and risk assessment process. Lack of clarity produces gaps through which failure in your risk management system can squeeze!

Everyone should be rewarded based on achievement of risk management plan. If your risk management plan has been correctly drafted and embedded it will bring business success. Your risk management plan should be to achieve business objectives set with enterprise risk management methodology. A holistic approach to business decision will produce greater resilience and longer term sustainable success.

Understand that your risk assessment process has weaknesses. Peoples perceptions of risk can skew risk management actions inappropriately. This can result in the failure of your risk management system and business.

Enterprise risk management ERM creates a clear picture of where you are now and plans to get you to where you want to be. However everyone needs to engage in the process for it to work optimally. It is to be present in strategic operational and project risk management.

Build more confidence in your ability to implement a better risk management system

Risk management can help profitability enhance all stakeholder confidence and protect your brand and reputation. Create the environment for more effective business outcomes and greater profitability.

If you improve your confidence in your risk management system you can actually take more risks to achieve more in business.
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Increase your risk knowledge and business intelligence. Change your perspective of risks and risk management. Redefine what is acceptable risks without breaching your risk tolerance. If you are not confident in your risk management capability it is hard for the business and business leaders to perform well.

Decide how best to manage risks in your business. Build your colleagues confidence with training and support from BusinessRiskTV. Find out more by completing and submitting the form below and enter code #Confidence.

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Identify what our experts know and what you need to know to overcome problems quicker. Connect with lifestyle and business experts live online. In many cases access free initial consultation to find out if our experts can help you.

Knowledge is key to improving your personal and business decisions. Sell and distribute your business or lifestyle improvement knowledge to people who are stuck and in a hurry to overcome problems.

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Do you fear losing what you have created instead of valuing what you might gain from taking more risk?

How to overcome loss aversion with BusinessRiskTV.com

How do we make the best use of available business assets and resources to maximise return of investment of time and money

Fear of loss often beats the desire to gain more. Fearing losing everything you have built is natural human reaction. However is your fear getting in the way of seizing new business opportunities? Keep innovating and growing with less uncertainty with BusinessRiskTV.

Develop a holistic risk management culture to drive your business forward. Up your risk appetite to achieve more with more controlled balanced risk taking.

The biggest factor in business leader decision making is fear of loss. People worry about loss more than securing gains.
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Develop a more assured risk management framework and risk assessment process to match your risk culture. Make sure your risk taking remains within your risk tolerance.

Do you have loss aversion bias in decision making?

Business leaders who are loss averse feel the pain of loss much greater that any joy from any gains from decisions made. They make strategic business decisions accordingly. The risk culture of the business models the loss aversion bias of the business leader.

If this works well for your business you should continue with status quo. However if you would like to experience faster business growth you may need to take more calculated risks.

Loss aversion refers to the tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. It is better for you to not lose 10000 pounds than to make 10000 pounds in business.
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However most entrepreneurs and many business leaders are in their position to better themselves. If you mitigate the potential losses from taking more risks and manage the risks to maximise the return on your investment you should end up with faster growth with less uncertainty.

It is more common in people who are not entrepreneurs or business leaders to be biased against taking risks. Loss aversion is a reflection of a general bias in human psychology. People tend to want to stick with what they know than make changes that might not work well. People in general are resistant to change. When presented with the potential benefits of change they focus more on what might be lost rather than on what can be gained.

What is your business risk tolerance? If you can make changes to try to grow faster that if do not work fall within your risk tolerance would you take more risk?
If you adopted small changes rather than one big radical all eggs in one basket change would you feel more comfortable? Spreading your faster business growth changes across a few new ideas may be better for your business. When you know which one of the new changes works best perhaps then you can focus on one new idea.
Do not confuse more risk taking in business with gambling. Taking calculated risks to grow faster is about assessing and then managing the risks before you action more risk taking. You can mitigate the threats from more risk as well as maximise the returns from taking more risks.

Few things in business life are guaranteed other than taxes! Even maintaining the status quo comes with the threat of business failure. Kodack photography business was once one of the most successful businesses in the world. How many Kodack films do you buy for your camera now!

The desire to avoid business losses is motivated by fear. The more a business leader fears losses the more likely he or she is to be loss averse and the more likely they are to be disinclined to make changes to their business to be more successful. Having a better understanding of the risks that could be taken to achieve more will make loss averse business leaders more comfortable with changing the the business.

Often the perception of risks and reward are skewed to the belief that you are doomed to fail which means you do not make changes to the business. By the same token it is important that all stakeholders in the business are involved in assessing risks from changes to business. Business leaders who do like taking risks can miss the pitfalls to mitigate against whilst making changes that can cause the change project fail even if it was a great idea.

With a little input and engagement from all levels of the organisation your project to grow faster is more likely to be a success. Take risks that are worth taking which are achievable with everyone onboard.
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Top risks in world economy the threats and the opportunities

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What are the biggest risks to the global economy?

Although unpredictable lets try and predict the future! What is exciting is that clearly there are many threats particularly from the environment and trade wars. There are also massive opportunities for business leaders who are in control of their own business risks.

What are the biggest threats and opportunities to the world in the new decade?
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Some of the biggest global risks business leaders have little control over. Warfare and mass destruction global inequality between countries and unequal economic development creating mass economic migration global trade wars global pandemics political shift towards popularity driven left or right wing positions and systemic collapse of the financial markets. Contingency planning is the best that business leaders can do to manage most of such global catastrophic risks.

However there are risks business leaders do have the potential to have control over but do not always control such global occurring risks. Global risks falling into this category include deteriorating natural environment and global warming as well as cyber attacks.

Many of the risk management solutions for one global risk can manage the threat and opportunity from another risk without extra investment of time or money.
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BusinessRiskTV is scanning for threats and opportunities to the global economy in the new decade. If you look for it you can still see an abundance of wealth and opportunity globally and locally.

Global Recession?

Putting warfare and mass destruction risk to one side the most likely cause of a global recession is the continuing or deterioration of global trade wars.

The climate threat has come off age! The solutions are already known. However the will is less obvious. The financial services industry particularly banks will probably be the biggest influencers in driving environmental protection. Many banks and investors are refusing to finance coal businesses and are threatening divestment and lack of funding for other fossil fuel businesses. Even the governor of the Bank of England has told pension fund managers to sort out investment in fossil fuel based businesses.

The flip side of this is the opportunity to make money from environmental protection. Existing and developing environmental protection technologies are a real business opportunity. Even if your business does not sell environmental protection products or services your brand needs protecting via the adoption of good environmental protection policy.

The world is drowning in debt and fake money. Government corporate and personal debt. How future generations will cope with the weight of debt when many in the developed world are also going to suffer the effects of demographic time bomb detonation. Quite frightening! However one way to cope with future and present global risks is for governments to invest money in infrastructure particularly 5G communication and utilities. Many of the innovation and inventions are going to rely on power and the internet.Necessity is the mother of invention but with power and faster communication we will be trapped in the past with only a vision of how much better our future could be globally.

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The global landscape is changing rapidly, with new risks emerging every day. From geopolitical tensions to cybersecurity threats, businesses around the world are facing a complex and constantly evolving set of risks that they must manage in order to survive and thrive. In this article, we will explore some of the most pressing global risks that businesses need to be aware of and offer some strategies for managing them effectively.

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical risks are those that arise from political tensions between countries or regions. These risks can take many forms, including trade wars, sanctions, and military conflicts. One recent example of a geopolitical risk is the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which has had significant implications for businesses around the world.

To manage geopolitical risks, businesses need to stay informed about political developments in the regions where they operate. They should also be proactive in diversifying their supply chains and hedging against currency fluctuations. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with local organisations or governments to gain a better understanding of the political environment and mitigate potential risks.

Cybersecurity Risks

Cybersecurity risks are those that arise from the increasing use of technology and the internet. As businesses become more reliant on digital systems and data, they also become more vulnerable to cyber attacks. These attacks can take many forms, including ransomware, phishing, and malware.

To manage cybersecurity risks, businesses need to invest in robust cybersecurity measures, such as firewalls, encryption, and regular system updates. They should also educate their employees about best practices for online security, such as avoiding suspicious emails and using strong passwords. In addition, businesses can consider purchasing cyber insurance to mitigate the financial impact of a cyber attack.

Climate Change Risks

Climate change risks are those that arise from the impact of climate change on the environment and society. These risks can take many forms, including extreme weather events, sea level rise, and food and water scarcity. The impact of climate change is already being felt around the world, and businesses need to be prepared for the potential consequences.

To manage climate change risks, businesses can take a number of steps. They can invest in renewable energy sources and other sustainable technologies to reduce their carbon footprint. They can also develop contingency plans for extreme weather events and other climate-related risks. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with governments and NGOs to address climate change at a systemic level.

Supply Chain Risks

Supply chain risks are those that arise from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. These disruptions can be caused by a variety of factors, including natural disasters, political unrest, and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, has had a significant impact on global supply chains, causing shortages of critical goods and disrupting manufacturing and distribution networks.

To manage supply chain risks, businesses need to develop contingency plans for disruptions, such as alternative suppliers and backup inventory. They should also be proactive in identifying potential risks in their supply chains and implementing measures to mitigate them. In addition, businesses can consider investing in technologies, such as blockchain and IoT, to improve supply chain visibility and resilience.

Financial Risks

Financial risks are those that arise from changes in the financial markets or economic conditions. These risks can take many forms, including fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. They can also be caused by systemic risks, such as a global recession or financial crisis.

To manage financial risks, businesses need to be proactive in monitoring financial markets and economic conditions. They should also develop contingency plans for potential disruptions, such as currency hedging strategies and diversified investment portfolios. In addition, businesses can consider partnering with financial institutions and other experts to gain a deeper understanding of financial risks and opportunities.

Managing global risks is a complex and ongoing process for businesses around the world. By staying informed about emerging risks and implementing proactive measures to mitigate them, businesses can reduce their exposure to potential losses and position themselves for long-term success.

It’s important to recognise that global risks are interconnected, meaning that a disruption in one area can have ripple effects across multiple industries and regions. For this reason, businesses need to take a holistic approach to risk management, considering the potential impact of each risk on their operations and stakeholders.

In addition to the strategies outlined above, businesses can also consider partnering with risk management experts and other organisations to stay informed about emerging risks and best practices for risk management. By taking a collaborative approach to risk management, businesses can better anticipate and manage global risks, while also positioning themselves for long-term success in an ever-changing landscape.

Overall, businesses that are able to effectively manage global risks will be better positioned to thrive in a rapidly changing world. By staying informed, developing contingency plans, and investing in resilience, businesses can reduce their exposure to potential losses and position themselves for long-term success.

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