Will you drown or be saved with cryptos?

Some bank shares are still more than 90% off their peak pre 2008 financial crisis so there is no such thing as “safe as money in the bank”!

The Inflationary Storm: Are Cryptos Your Lifeboat?

A dark cloud hangs over the global economy. Whispers of recession turn into shouts, and governments, desperate to keep the ship afloat, resort to the familiar mantra: fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing. But what does this mean for your hard-earned money? Enter cryptocurrencies: a digital life raft in a sea of potential devaluation.

As a currency and economics expert, I’m here to navigate these choppy waters. Today, we’ll explore the potential for crypto as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. We’ll dive into the economic storm, examine the limitations of traditional safeguards, and assess whether venturing into the crypto realm could be your best bet.

The Looming Devaluation:

Governments and central banks worldwide have injected trillions into their economies since the pandemic. This, coupled with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, is fuelling an inflationary fire. Fiat currencies, backed by nothing but government promises, are losing their purchasing power. A loaf of bread that cost $2 yesterday may cost $2.10 tomorrow, silently eroding your savings and future.

Traditional Safe Havens Fail:

Historically, gold and other precious metals have been go-to hedges against inflation. But their limited supply and physical constraints don’t cater to everyone’s needs. Real estate or property, another traditional option, suffers from high entry barriers and illiquidity.

This is where cryptocurrencies enter the picture. With their decentralised nature, limited supply, and global reach, they present a new, albeit volatile, option.

The Crypto Advantage:

  • Limited Supply: Unlike fiat currencies,many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin,have a predetermined cap on their supply. This scarcity helps limit inflation and potentially increases their value over time.
  • Decentralisation: Cryptocurrencies aren’t subject to the whims of governments or central banks. Their decentralised networks offer a buffer against devaluation policies used to stimulate economies.
  • Global Accessibility: Anyone with an internet connection can access and trade cryptocurrencies, regardless of location or financial standing. This democratises wealth management and opens doors to previously excluded individuals.
  • Store of Value: While their volatility often grabs headlines, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have exhibited long-term value appreciation. Their potential to act as a digital gold, a secure store of value in a turbulent economy, is undeniable.

The Risk Factor:

However, venturing into the world of cryptocurrencies isn’t without its risks:

  • Volatility: The crypto market is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing wildly, making them potentially unsuitable for risk-averse individuals.
  • Regulation: The regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is still evolving, creating uncertainty and potential for government intervention.
  • Security: Crypto wallets and exchanges have been targets for hackers, highlighting the importance of choosing secure platforms and practicing safe storage methods.

Navigating the Crypto Waters:

So, should you dive into the crypto ocean as a hedge against devaluation? The answer depends on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. If you’re looking for a safe haven, traditional options like gold might be better suited. However, if you have the risk appetite and are willing to do your research, cryptocurrencies could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.

Remember, diversification is key. Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket. Start with a small allocation, understand the risks involved, and invest only what you can afford to lose.

For Business Leaders:

  • Explore crypto’s potential as a payment option: Accepting cryptocurrencies can attract tech-savvy customers and expand your reach.
  • Consider crypto investments: Carefully assess the risks and potential rewards of incorporating crypto into your portfolio.
  • Educate your employees: Equip your team with the knowledge they need to understand and potentially utilise cryptocurrencies.

For Consumers:

  • Do your research: Understand the different types of cryptocurrencies and their underlying technologies before investing.
  • Diversify your portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in the crypto basket.
  • Start small: Invest only what you can afford to lose, and remember the market is volatile.
  • Choose secure platforms: Store your cryptocurrencies in reputable wallets and exchanges.

Cryptocurrencies present a fascinating blend of opportunity and risk in the face of potential fiat currency devaluation. While not a guaranteed solution, they offer a novel approach to securing your financial future. Remember, knowledge is power in this realm. Educate yourself, assess your risk tolerance, and make informed decisions to weather the coming economic storm. The crypto lifeboat might just be the key to staying afloat in the inflationary seas ahead.

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Business Leaders Have Self Preservation and Moral Obligation To Manage Risks Better

It’s going to pop or we are heading for soft landing economically speaking?

Navigating the Storm: A Guide for Business Leaders in a Sea of Speculation

My fellow business leaders, we stand at a pivotal moment. The alluring winds of speculation have inflated a bubble across stocks, bonds, and other debt assets, leaving us staring at a precarious horizon. 2024 looms large, with the question on everyone’s mind: are lower interest rates a life raft or a leaky pontoon for a world economy teetering on the brink? Can we navigate this volatile sea, deflate the bubble gently, and ensure a smooth landing, or is a catastrophic crash inevitable?

Firstly, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room: we are in a bubble. Asset prices have been inflated beyond their intrinsic value, fueled by easy money, a search for yield in a low-interest-rate environment, and, frankly, a touch of irrational exuberance. This artificial inflation has distorted markets, misallocated resources, and sown the seeds of potential crisis.

Now, to the burning question: can lower interest rates be the balm that soothes the bubble? The answer, like the ocean itself, is nuanced.

Lowering interest rates could provide temporary relief. It would inject liquidity into the market, potentially buying time for asset prices to adjust gently. Imagine it as lowering the pressure in a balloon—a slow release might prevent a sudden explosion. However, this approach comes with risks. More liquidity could further inflate the bubble, creating a bigger problem down the line. Additionally, it could weaken the already-anemic economic growth, leading to a “zombie economy” propped up by cheap money.

So, is it too late for a controlled descent? I wouldn’t write the obituary just yet. While the risks are undeniable, we still have room for manoeuvre. Here’s the good news: the bubble hasn’t fully popped yet. We can still act, and businesses have a crucial role to play.

Here’s my prescription for weathering the storm:

1. Prudence over Profits: In this uncertain climate, prioritise caution over short-term gains. Focus on building reserves, reducing debt, and diversifying your portfolio. Remember, cash is king during market downturns.

2. Agility over Rigidity: Be prepared to pivot quickly. Reassess your business model, identify new opportunities, and be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics. This could involve embracing digital transformation, exploring new markets, or even restructuring your operations.

3. Innovation over Imitation: Don’t wait for the tide to turn, swim against it. Invest in innovation, develop new products and services that address pressing societal needs, and stay ahead of the curve. This is the time to disrupt, not follow suit.

4. Collaboration over Competition: The coming storm requires unity, not rivalry. Collaborate with other businesses, share resources, and build robust supply chains. Remember, rising tides lift all boats, and when one ship sinks, the entire fleet can be endangered.

5. Responsibility over Recklessness: As leaders, we have a responsibility not just to our shareholders, but to our employees, communities, and the planet. Embrace sustainable practices, promote ethical business practices, and prioritise long-term value creation over short-term gain.

Ultimately, whether we emerge from this bubble unscathed or witness a painful burst depends on our collective actions. Business leaders, we have the power to be anchors in this storm, steering our companies, and by extension, the global economy, towards a safe harbour. Let’s choose prudence over panic, agility over rigidity, and collaboration over competition. Let’s build businesses that not only survive but thrive in the volatile ocean of speculation. Remember, it’s not about predicting the storm, it’s about weathering it with resilience and responsibility. Together, we can ensure that 2024 is not the year of a crash, but a year of controlled descent, leading to a stronger, more sustainable future for all.

This is not just an economic imperative, it’s a moral one. Let’s navigate this sea of speculation with courage, foresight, and a shared commitment to the well-being of our businesses, our communities, and our planet.

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Control the controllable

You can still be in control of your destiny

Stop Predicting Mishaps and Build a Fortress: Managing Resilience in Uncertain Times

The world outside your boardroom window is a tempestuous ocean. Unforeseen tides roll in, stormy winds whip up, and unpredictable leaders steer their own vessels with varying degrees of… competence. As business leaders, we’re tempted to focus on these external fluctuations, squinting into the distance, trying to divine the next political misfire, economic tremour, or environmental upheaval. We spend countless hours crafting intricate contingency plans for every conceivable dystopian scenario – all while neglecting the most critical factor in our control: building a resilient business.

Instead of exhausting ourselves predicting the machinations of our “great leaders,” let’s shift our gaze inward. Let’s focus on what we can control: fortifying our own organisations. Let’s become architects of resilience, crafting businesses that thrive amidst chaos, bounce back from adversity, and emerge stronger from the stormiest seas.

Redefining Resilience: Beyond Crisis Planning

Resilience isn’t just about weathering a crisis. It’s about adapting, evolving, and even profiting from unexpected challenges. It’s about building an organisation that doesn’t merely survive the punches, but thrives on the throws. To achieve this, we need to move beyond reactive crisis planning and embrace a proactive, holistic approach to resilience.

The Pillars of a Resilient Business:

  1. Foundational Stability: A resilient business starts with a rock-solid foundation. This means solid financial management, robust infrastructure, and a clear understanding of your core competencies and value proposition. Ensure your financial house is in order, with diversified revenue streams and adequate reserves to weather unexpected downturns. Invest in critical infrastructure, from IT systems to supply chains, ensuring redundancy and adaptability. Know your strengths and weaknesses inside-out, and focus on what you do best – outsourcing non-core functions to agile partners.

  2. Agile & Adaptive Culture: Rigid organisations crumble under pressure. Cultivate a culture of agility and adaptability where employees are empowered to make decisions, take risks, and experiment. Encourage open communication, cross-functional collaboration, and continuous learning. Embrace diverse perspectives and foster a “fail fast, learn fast” mentality. Bureaucracy breeds stagnation; agility nurtures resilience.

  3. Innovation Engine: Disruption is the new normal. Stay ahead of the curve by fostering a culture of innovation. Invest in research and development, encourage creative problem-solving, and reward out-of-the-box thinking. Be open to new technologies, business models, and market opportunities. Turn uncertainty into an opportunity to innovate and differentiate yourself from the competition.

  4. Risk Management Mindset: While we shouldn’t obsess over predicting specific external events, a proactive risk management framework is crucial. Identify potential threats, assess their likelihood and impact, and develop mitigation strategies. Regularly review and update your risk assessments, and ensure effective communication and training around risk management protocols. Be prepared, but don’t get paralysed by fear of the unknown.

  5. Stakeholder Trust & Engagement: Trust is the mortar that binds an organisation together. Cultivate strong relationships with employees, customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders. Be transparent in your communication, proactive in addressing concerns, and responsive to their needs. A network of trust enables your organization to weather storms together, with everyone aligned towards a common goal.

Driving Business Goals With Resilience as Your Fuel:

Building resilience isn’t about neglecting your objectives. It’s about ensuring you achieve them despite, and even because of, external turbulence. A resilient business is a proactive business, one that anticipates change and turns it to its advantage. By focusing on internal strengths and adaptability, you position yourself to seize opportunities amidst disruption, navigate uncharted waters, and emerge as a leader in the new landscape.

Remember, the next leader’s blunder, economic downturn, or natural disaster is inevitable. Stop squinting into the fog and get to work building your ark. Invest in internal strength, agility, and innovation. Forge a culture of resilience, and watch your business weather any storm while achieving its intended destination. By focusing on what you can control, you turn uncertainty into opportunity and become the captain of your own destiny, no matter who’s steering the world around you.

This is just the beginning of the conversation. Let’s keep building more resilient businesses, together.

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Future Of Cryptocurrency

Fools gold or once in a lifetime opportunity in 2024?

The Crystal Ball of Crypto: Predicting Spot ETF Acceptability and Market Impact in 2024

The nascent world of cryptocurrencies has been on a rollercoaster ride, its trajectory heavily influenced by regulatory decisions, particularly when it comes to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Spot ETFs, tracking the underlying price of a crypto asset directly, promise to unlock unprecedented mainstream access and potential legitimisation for this new asset class. With multiple applications currently under review in various countries, the question remains: Where will these applications land? And what does it mean for cryptocurrency valuations in 2024? Predicting the future is always precarious, but by analysing current trends, regulatory landscapes, and industry sentiment, we can paint a picture of potential scenarios.

The Global Regulatory Landscape: Shades of Gray across Borders

The regulatory landscape for crypto assets, and Spot ETFs by extension, remains fragmented and diverse. Different countries approach the issue with varying degrees of receptiveness and caution. Let’s take a peek into some key regions:

  • North America: The US, the world’s largest financial market, has been notoriously hesitant. Despite numerous applications, the SEC hasn’t approved any Spot ETFs yet, citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, recent developments like BlackRock’s application and a court favouring Grayscale’s case signal a potential shift towards approval in 2024. Canada, on the other hand, has already approved several Spot ETFs, setting a precedent for the region.
  • Europe: Europe has taken a more pragmatic approach, with Germany approving its first Spot ETF in 2021. Several other European countries are actively considering applications, with Switzerland and France potentially following suit in 2024. However, stricter regulatory frameworks like MiCA could impose additional hurdles.
  • Asia: The picture in Asia is complex. Hong Kong, known for its financial openness, recently broke new ground by approving its first Spot ETF, the CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF. This marks a significant departure from the stance of mainland China, which has banned individual crypto trading entirely. Meanwhile, Japan, after initial apprehension, has recently approved a Bitcoin futures ETF, potentially paving the way for further developments.

Predicting the Domino Effect: Acceptance Scenarios and their Impact

Based on these regional variations, let’s consider three potential scenarios for Spot ETF acceptance by the end of 2024:

Scenario 1: The Dam Breaks Open

A wave of approvals sweeps across major markets like the US, Canada, and several European countries. This scenario, fueled by growing institutional interest and industry pressure, could trigger a surge in demand for crypto assets, driving up valuations significantly. Increased liquidity and accessibility could attract new investors, further amplifying the bull run. This scenario, however, also carries risks, as rapid price climbs could be followed by sharp corrections if regulatory crackdowns or technological limitations arise.

Scenario 2: A Measured Waltz

Acceptance occurs but at a controlled pace. Regulators take time to carefully vet applications, prioritising robust safeguards and investor protection. This scenario would result in a gradual rise in valuations without the intense volatility of Scenario 1. New investors would enter cautiously, ensuring a more sustainable growth trajectory. However, this also means the full potential of Spot ETFs would be realised over a longer timeframe.

Scenario 3: The Cold Shoulder

Regulatory hurdles persist, with major markets like the US remaining hesitant. This scenario would keep the crypto market confined to its current niche, hindering mainstream adoption and limiting valuation growth. However, it could also foster further innovation within the crypto ecosystem, driving development towards greater decentralisation and security.

Beyond the Crystal Ball: The Unknowns and Opportunities

Predicting the future of crypto valuations is an intricate dance with numerous variables. Even the most robust analysis must acknowledge the presence of unforeseen black swans: unforeseen regulatory shifts, technological breakthroughs, or major market events. However, regardless of the specific scenario that unfolds, Spot ETFs are destined to be a game-changer for the crypto landscape. Increased institutional involvement, improved access, and potential regulatory legitimacy will undoubtedly have a profound impact on valuations, shaping the trajectory of this emerging asset class in 2024 and beyond.

As investors navigate this new frontier, it’s crucial to stay informed, manage risks responsibly, and remain adaptable to the ever-evolving nature of the cryptoverse. The crystal ball may be blurry, but the potential of Spot ETFs shines brightly, illuminating a future where mainstream adoption and institutional acceptance could propel cryptocurrencies into the heart of the global financial system.

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FedEx Experience and Risk Outlook Warning To Business Leaders Around World

How do you feel about this red flag and what will your business do about it?

FedEx: Canary in the Global Coal Mine – Why the Delivery Giant’s Woes Should Alarm Business Leaders

Keith Lewis 20th December 2023

On December 19th, 2023, FedEx, the global logistics leviathan, delivered a bombshell. Their preliminary earnings report painted a grim picture, missing analyst expectations and prompting an ominous pronouncement from CEO Raj Subramaniam: “We see a global recession coming.” With FedEx serving as a crucial artery for international trade, its tremors sent shockwaves through the business world, sparking concerns about the trajectory of the global economy. For business leaders, the message is clear: pay heed, for FedEx’s woes are a stark canary in the coal mine, signalling potential turbulence ahead.

FedEx: A bellwether in a storm

FedEx occupies a unique position in the economic ecosystem. Its vast network, spanning over 220 countries and territories, transports 4.7 billion parcels annually, serving as a barometer of global trade activity. When businesses and consumers are flourishing, so does FedEx. Conversely, when economic headwinds blow, the first chill is often felt within its corridors. This symbiotic relationship is precisely why FedEx is considered a bellwether – an early indicator of economic health.

A Perfect Storm of Gloom:

The reasons behind FedEx’s current predicament are multi-faceted, forming a perfect storm of economic anxieties.

  • Global Economic Slowdown: The world is experiencing a synchronised slowdown, with major economies like the US, Europe, and China grappling with inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. This dampens consumer spending and business investment, directly impacting the volume of goods shipped and,consequently, FedEx’s bottom line.
  • E-commerce Plateau: The explosive growth of e-commerce, a major driver of package volume for FedEx, appears to be reaching a plateau. Consumers are tightening their belts, opting for essential purchases over online splurges. This shift weakens the e-commerce engine that had been propelling FedEx in recent years.
  • Operational Misfires: Beyond external factors, FedEx has faced internal challenges. Labour shortages, network disruptions, and integration hiccups within its TNT acquisition have hampered efficiency and added to costs. These internal missteps exacerbate the impact of external headwinds.

The Ripple Effect:

The tremours of FedEx’s struggles extend far beyond the company itself. As a bellwether, its woes signal potential trouble for various stakeholders:

  • Businesses: A global recession would translate to reduced demand, disrupted supply chains, and tighter credit conditions. This can lead to lower profits, stalled investments, and layoffs, impacting businesses of all sizes across industries.
  • Investors: The stock market’s reaction to FedEx’s report is indicative of broader anxieties. A sustained economic downturn could trigger further market volatility, eroding investor confidence and hindering capital flows.
  • Consumers: A recession typically results in job losses, wage stagnation,and reduced disposable income. This translates to less spending and increased economic anxiety for consumers, further dampening economic activity.

A Call to Action for Business Leaders:

FedEx’s struggles serve as a stark warning for business leaders across the globe. It is not a time for complacency, but for prudent preparation and proactive adaptation. Here are some key actions to consider:

  • Scenario Planning: Develop contingency plans for various economic scenarios, including a potential recession. This way, businesses can adjust strategies, optimise cost structures, and weather potential storms.
  • Focus on Efficiency: Identify and eliminate operational inefficiencies. Streamline processes, optimise supply chains, and leverage technology to reduce costs and improve resilience.
  • Prioritise Agility: Embrace a culture of flexibility and adaptability. Be ready to pivot strategies, adjust product offerings, and shift focus to meet changing market conditions.
  • Invest in Innovation: Seek innovative solutions to enhance customer experience, improve product offerings, and gain a competitive edge in a challenging market.
  • Foster Collaboration: Build strong relationships with partners, suppliers, and customers. Open communication and collaboration can help navigate tough times and identify shared solutions.

In conclusion, FedEx’s current woes are not an isolated phenomenon. They are a reflection of broader economic anxieties that should serve as a wake-up call for business leaders worldwide. By acknowledging the headwinds, preparing for potential turbulence, and implementing proactive strategies, businesses can navigate the uncertain waters ahead and emerge stronger on the other side. The time for action is now, and the canary’s song should not be ignored. By taking heed and adapting, businesses can not only weather the storm brewing on the horizon but also emerge into calmer waters, ready to thrive in the post-recessionary landscape.

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Key Threat To USA Regional Banks and Wider Financial System Globally

Bricks and mortar last a long time but the work from home solution is a lasting problem for commercial property owners and the wider financial system stability

A Ticking Time Bomb: Risks of Renewing Commercial Property Loans in 2024

The American financial system stands on the precipice of a potential tremor in 2024. Not from earthquakes or stock market crashes, but from the quiet ticking of a time bomb: a vast swathe of commercial property loans approaching their renewal date. Over $1.5 trillion worth of these loans will mature next year, and the uncertain economic climate has cast a long shadow over their renegotiation, potentially triggering a series of cascading risks for the financial system.

A Perfect Storm of Uncertainties:

Several factors converge to create this precarious situation:

  • Shifting Market Dynamics: The pandemic’s impact on commercial real estate lingers. Office vacancy rates remain high, retail struggles to adapt to online shopping, and hospitality faces a new normal. These challenges erode property values, impacting the collateral backing these loans.
  • Rising Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation has driven interest rates upward. This significantly affects borrower affordability, putting pressure on them to repay or renegotiate at significantly higher interest rates, potentially pushing some into default.
  • Geopolitical Turbulence: The war in Ukraine and global supply chain disruptions add further pressure to the economic landscape. Higher energy costs and material shortages impact construction and operation costs,affecting tenants and ultimately, loan viability.
  • Regulatory Environment: Evolving regulatory guidelines around climate change and building standards could necessitate costly retrofits for older buildings, adding another layer of financial strain on borrowers and lenders alike.

The Cascade of Potential Risks:

If a significant portion of these loans experience distress or default, the consequences could ripple through the financial system:

  • Bank Stability: Banks heavily invested in commercial real estate loans could face significant losses, impacting their capital adequacy and lending capacity. This could lead to tighter credit conditions for businesses and individuals alike, hampering economic growth.
  • Investor Confidence: Weakening commercial real estate values could trigger a chain reaction, impacting other asset classes like real estate investment trusts (REITs) and mortgage-backed securities. This could lead to capital flight and market volatility.
  • Domino Effect: Defaults and distress in the commercial real estate market could have ripple effects on other sectors, particularly construction, hospitality, and retail, potentially leading to job losses and a broader economic slowdown.

385 American banks, most of them smaller, regional ones facing bankruptcy in 2024 due to bad commercial real estate loans up for renewal, according to a new report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Lower property values, increased interest rates, and declining office demand could lead more firms to default on their loans and fear of banking collapse will cause people to withdraw deposited money accelerating bank bankruptcies in USA.

Mitigating the Risks: Navigating the Labyrinth:

Avoiding these worst-case scenarios requires proactive measures from various stakeholders:

  • Loan Modifications: Lenders and borrowers need to work collaboratively to restructure existing loans, potentially extending terms or adjusting interest rates to reflect current market realities. Open communication and flexible solutions are crucial.
  • Government Intervention: Policymakers could consider targeted interventions like tax breaks or loan guarantee programs to incentivise investment and stabilise the sector. Measures to address affordability concerns in housing markets could also indirectly support commercial real estate by boosting tenant demand.
  • Industry Adaptation: The commercial real estate industry itself needs to embrace innovation and adaptability. Exploring alternative uses for struggling properties, embracing hybrid work models in office spaces, and fostering sustainable energy solutions can enhance viability and attract new tenants.
  • Diversification Strategies: Lenders need to diversify their loan portfolios to minimize exposure to any single sector. This could involve increasing their focus on sectors less vulnerable to economic downturns, like healthcare or infrastructure.

A Call for Vigilance and Collaboration:

The year 2024 looms large as a potential flashpoint for the American financial system. The fate of these maturing commercial property loans hangs in the balance, with their renegotiation holding the key to stability or potential turmoil. Vigilance, open communication, and proactive measures from lenders, borrowers, policymakers, and the industry as a whole are crucial to navigate this challenge and mitigate the risks. Ignoring the ticking time bomb will only amplify its potential explosion. By understanding the complexities of the situation and working together, we can chart a course towards a smooth renegotiation and a resilient financial future for America and beyond.

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Pros and Cons Of Economic Migration into UK and USA

Trying to take wokeness out of key business risk management threats and opportunities

Can Economic Migrants Be the Recessionary Storm’s Lifeline? A 2024 Outlook for UK and USA

As storm clouds gather on the economic horizon, recessionary whispers turn into anxious roars in both the UK and the USA. In this tumultuous climate, a fascinating question emerges: Could economic migrants potentially act as a life raft, mitigating the damage of a potential recession in 2024?

As an expert economic analyst ( Keith Lewis ), I delve into this intricate issue, dissecting the potential role of economic migration in weathering the coming economic storm in these two major economies.

Buoying the Economy in Rough Seas:

Several arguments propose that economic migrants can serve as a buffer against recessionary forces:

  • Labour force resilience: With skilled and willing newcomers filling critical labour gaps, particularly in sectors facing shortages, economic migrants can bolster productivity and output. This can stabilise the economy and counteract downward trends, as evidenced by the contribution of migrant workers to sectors like UK healthcare and US agriculture.
  • Demand lifeline: By injecting fresh purchasing power into the economy, migrants can stimulate businesses and create jobs. This can boost aggregate demand, a crucial driver of economic recovery, as research by the OECD suggests with increased migration boosting GDP growth in several European countries.
  • Innovation anchor: Migrants often bring a wealth of entrepreneurial spirit and skills, driving business creation and innovation. This can foster economic growth and generate employment opportunities, potentially alleviating recessionary pressures, as demonstrated by the significant role of immigrants in US startup ecosystems.
  • Fiscal stability: As migrant workers contribute through income taxes and payroll deductions, they can bolster government revenue streams. This can provide crucial budgetary resources for social programs and infrastructure investments, helping governments navigate and mitigate the impact of a recession, as analyses in the UK suggest regarding the positive fiscal contribution of immigration.

However, navigating these turbulent waters necessitates caution:

  • Wage suppression: An influx of migrant workers can put downward pressure on wages,particularly for low-skilled jobs.This can dampen consumer spending and exacerbate inequalities, hindering overall economic growth, as studies in the US have shown in specific sectors.
  • Social tensions: Large-scale migration can strain social services and resources, potentially leading to public anxieties and fueling xenophobia.This can make it politically challenging to maintain open borders, even with potential economic benefits, as witnessed in the current political climates of both the UK and the USA.
  • Integration hurdles: Successful integration of migrants into the workforce and society is crucial for maximising their economic contribution. Language barriers, cultural differences, and lack of recognition of foreign qualifications can hinder integration, limiting the positive economic impact of migration. Robust policies promoting skill recognition and language training are essential to overcome these hurdles.

Navigating the Choppy Waters of 2024:

Assessing the evidence requires acknowledging the complexities of this issue. Studies on the direct link between economic migration and recessionary tendencies remain inconclusive, with varying results depending on factors like the skillsets of migrants, existing labour market conditions, and government policies. A tailored approach, considering specific national contexts, is crucial.

Charting the Course in 2024 and Beyond:

To leverage the potential benefits of economic migration while mitigating potential drawbacks in 2024 and beyond, both the UK and the USA can consider the following:

  • Skill-based migration strategies: Prioritising the entry of migrants with skills in high demand to address labour shortages and boost productivity, ensuring a win-win for both businesses and the economy.
  • Effective integration programs: Investing in language training, skills recognition, and cultural orientation programs can facilitate smooth integration, maximising the positive economic contribution of migrants and fostering social cohesion.
  • Robust social safety nets: Ensuring adequate social services and resources for both native and migrant populations can mitigate potential tensions and prevent economic hardship during a recession.
  • Data-driven policymaking: Continuously monitoring and analysing the impacts of migration policies on both the economy and social fabric is crucial for evidence-based policy adjustments and ensuring responsible management of migration in the face of economic challenges.

Conclusion:

While economic migrants cannot entirely prevent a recession, they can potentially play a crucial role in minimising its impact and expediting economic recovery. However, it is essential to acknowledge the complexities and potential challenges associated with migration. Openness to talent, coupled with responsible management, integration efforts, and data-driven policymaking, can harness the potential of economic migration to navigate the choppy waters of 2024 and build resilient economies for the future. Remember, weathering economic storms requires a balanced approach, embracing the potential of diverse resources while ensuring responsible and inclusive practices.

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Greatest Geopolitical Risks 2024

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The Looming Shadow: Navigating the Labyrinth of Geopolitical Risks in 2024

The world in 2023 stands at a crossroads. As the shadow of a global pandemic recedes, new anxieties grip the international landscape. Tensions simmer in familiar hotspots, while emerging threats whisper on the horizon. In this labyrinth of uncertainties, one question burns bright: what will be the greatest geopolitical risk in 2024?

Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but anticipating and preparing for potential storms is the essence of responsible leadership. While pinpointing a singular “greatest” risk might be an oversimplification, we can examine four contenders each capable of casting a long, disruptive shadow in 2024:

1. The Dragon and the Tiger: Escalating Tensions in the Taiwan Strait:

The Taiwan Strait, a narrow waterway separating mainland China and the self-governing island of Taiwan, has long been a tinderbox of geopolitical tension. China, viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province, refuses to renounce the use of force in achieving reunification. Taiwan, on the other hand, maintains robust democratic institutions and enjoys strong international support, particularly from the United States.

In 2024, several factors could elevate the risk of confrontation in the Taiwan Strait:

  • Increased Chinese military assertiveness: Beijing’s recent actions, like frequent incursions into Taiwanese airspace and military drills simulating island invasion, signal a growing determination to assert its dominance.
  • Taiwan’s presidential elections: Scheduled for January 2024, the elections could see the victory of a pro-independence candidate, further inflaming Chinese grievances.
  • Miscalculations and accidents: Unforeseen incidents, either military mishaps or deliberate provocations, could spiral into an unintended conflict with devastating consequences.

The potential ramifications of a Taiwan Strait conflict are immense. A full-scale war could trigger a massive humanitarian crisis, disrupt global supply chains, and plunge the world into a new era of Cold War-esque tensions.

2. The Ukrainian Quagmire: War’s Long Shadow and Spillover Risks:

The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to cast a long, dark shadow over Europe and the global order. Even if a resolution were reached in 2024, the war’s legacy will extend far beyond the battlefield. Here are some potential avenues for risk:

  • Protracted conflict and instability: Even a ceasefire wouldn’t guarantee lasting peace. A simmering conflict in Ukraine could destabilise the region, create a humanitarian crisis, and strain international relations.
  • Spillover effects into neighbouring countries: The war could trigger unrest or refugee crises in bordering nations like Moldova, Belarus, and the Baltic states.
  • Weapons proliferation and escalation: The possibility of Russia or Ukraine resorting to unconventional weapons or dragging other powers into the conflict cannot be entirely discounted.

The war in Ukraine has already disrupted the global food and energy markets, impacting economies worldwide. A further escalation could exacerbate these vulnerabilities, leading to economic hardship and political instability in vulnerable regions.

3. Iran’s Nuclear Tightrope: Unveiling the Bomb or Stepping Back from the Brink?

Iran’s nuclear programme remains a contentious issue, raising concerns about its potential for weapons development and regional instability. In 2024, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear ambitions could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape:

  • Collapse of the JCPOA: The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, currently hangs by a thread. Its collapse could pave the way for Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities,raising the specter of a military strike from Israel or the United States.
  • Internal political dynamics: The political climate in Iran could influence its approach to the nuclear issue. Hardliners gaining ascendancy could increase the risk of confrontation, while moderates gaining ground could offer an opportunity for renewed diplomacy.
  • Regional proxy conflicts: Iran’s support for Shia militias across the Middle East could exacerbate existing tensions and potentially trigger wider regional conflicts.

A nuclear-armed Iran could reshape the Middle East power dynamics, posing a significant threat to Israel and its allies. It could also trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, further destabilising an already volatile part of the world.

4. Climate Change and the Looming Resource Wars:

While traditionally considered a non-traditional security threat, climate change is increasingly recognised as a potential driver of geopolitical instability. In 2024, its impact could become more pronounced through:

  • Resource scarcity and competition: Water scarcity, food insecurity, and energy shortages driven by climate change could exacerbate existing resource competition, potentially leading to conflicts over crucial resources.
  • Mass migration and displacement: Climate-induced migration could strain social and political systems in receiving countries, potentially triggering unrest and xenophobia.

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Supply Chain Risk Management 2024

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Top 10 Supply Chain Management Trends on the Horizon in 2024

As the world continues to grapple with disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and climate change, supply chain management is undergoing a period of rapid transformation. Organisations are embracing digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies to enhance their supply chains and build resilience in the face of uncertainty.

In this article, we will explore the top 10 supply chain management trends that are expected to shape the industry in 2024 and beyond. These trends encompass technological advancements, strategic approaches, and evolving consumer demands that will redefine the way supply chains operate.

1. Digital Supply Chain As the Backbone of Resilience

The digital supply chain has emerged as the overarching trend driving supply chain transformation. It encompasses the integration of digital technologies, such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data analytics, to streamline operations, enhance visibility, and optimise decision-making.

Organisations are moving away from traditional paper-based processes and siloed systems towards a connected and data-driven supply chain ecosystem. This digital transformation is enabling businesses to gain real-time insights into their operations, predict disruptions, and respond proactively to changing market conditions.

2. Big Data and Analytics Driving Insights-Driven Decisions

Big data and analytics are playing a crucial role in extracting valuable insights from the vast amounts of data generated across the supply chain. Organisations are leveraging data analytics to identify patterns, optimise inventory management, improve demand forecasting, and enhance customer service.

Advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, are enabling businesses to anticipate disruptions, simulate scenarios, and make informed decisions that optimise supply chain performance.

3. Artificial Intelligence Revolutionising Supply Chain Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming supply chain operations by automating tasks, enhancing decision-making, and enabling predictive insights. AI applications are being used to automate repetitive tasks, such as data entry and order processing, freeing up human workers to focus on more strategic initiatives.

AI is also being used to optimise warehouse operations, manage transportation routes, and personalise customer experiences. AI-powered forecasting models are improving demand prediction accuracy, reducing inventory costs, and ensuring product availability.

4. Supply Chain Investments: Balancing Systems and Talent

Investment in supply chain systems and talent is essential for building a resilient and adaptable supply chain. Organisations are investing in modern supply chain management software, cloud-based platforms, and data analytics tools to enhance their technological capabilities.

Alongside these technological investments, organisations are also prioritising the development of their supply chain workforce. This includes providing training on digital technologies, fostering a culture of data-driven decision-making, and attracting and retaining top talent.

5. End-to-End Visibility, Traceability, and Location Intelligence

End-to-end visibility, traceability, and location intelligence are becoming increasingly important for supply chain transparency and risk management. Organisations are implementing technologies such as RFID tags, sensors, and IoT devices to track goods throughout the supply chain, from origin to delivery.

This real-time visibility enables businesses to monitor product quality, identify potential disruptions, and proactively address issues. It also enhances customer satisfaction by providing real-time tracking information and delivery updates.

6. Disruption and Risk Management: Embracing Agility and Resilience

Supply chains are facing an increasing number of disruptions, from natural disasters and geopolitical conflicts to technological advancements and changing consumer demands. Organisations are shifting their focus from traditional disaster recovery plans to proactive risk management strategies.

Building a resilient supply chain involves identifying potential risks, assessing their impact, and implementing mitigation strategies. It also requires the ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances and respond to disruptions in a timely and effective manner.

7. Agility and Resilience: Adapting to Changing Demands

Consumer expectations are constantly evolving, and organisations must adapt their supply chains to meet these demands. Customers are demanding faster delivery times, more personalised products, and greater transparency.

Supply chains need to be agile enough to respond to these changing demands, quickly introduce new products, and personalise customer experiences. This requires a flexible and adaptable supply chain infrastructure that can accommodate rapid changes.

8. Cybersecurity: Protecting Critical Supply Chain Assets

Supply chains are increasingly becoming targets for cyberattacks, as they represent a critical component of global commerce. Organisations are prioritising cybersecurity measures to protect their supply chain assets and prevent disruptions caused by cyberattacks.

Cybersecurity strategies include implementing robust access controls, educating employees on cybersecurity risks, and regularly monitoring supply chain systems for potential threats.

9. Green and Circular Supply Chains: A Sustainable Future

Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important factor in supply chain management. Organisations are adopting green and circular supply chain practices to reduce their environmental impact and contribute to a more sustainable future.

Green supply chains are focusing on resource efficiency.

10. Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS): A Strategic Lever for Flexibility

Supply Chain as a Service (SCaaS) is emerging as a strategic lever for organisations seeking flexibility and efficiency in their supply chain operations. SCAaS involves outsourcing non-core supply chain functions to specialised providers, allowing organisations to focus on their core competencies.

SCaaS providers offer a range of services, including logistics, transportation, warehousing, and inventory management. This allows organisations to access expertise and resources without the burden of managing these functions in-house.

Conclusion

The supply chain landscape is undergoing a period of rapid transformation driven by technological advancements, evolving consumer demands, and the need for resilience. Organisations that embrace digitalisation, automation, and emerging technologies will be well-positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.

The top 10 supply chain management trends on the horizon in 2024 highlight the critical role of technology, data, and strategic partnerships in building resilient and adaptable supply chains. By embracing these trends, organisations can optimise their operations, enhance customer satisfaction, and achieve sustainable growth.

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How does your business survive worsening debt crisis

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Navigating the Looming Storm: A Guide for Businesses in the Face of Rising Debt and Global Economic Uncertainty

The global economy is facing a confluence of challenges, including rising sovereign, commercial, and personal debt levels, coupled with the looming threat of a global recession in 2024. These interconnected issues pose a significant threat to businesses of all sizes, potentially leading to financial instability, reduced consumer spending, and disruptions in supply chains.

The Rising Debt Crisis: A Cause for Concern

Sovereign debt, the debt owed by governments, has reached unprecedented levels worldwide. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global sovereign debt reached a staggering 238% of global GDP in 2022. This excessive debt burden has raised concerns about countries’ ability to repay their obligations, potentially triggering sovereign debt crises and economic turmoil.

Commercial debt, the debt owed by businesses, has also been on an upward trend, driven by factors such as easy access to credit and expansionary monetary policies. While moderate levels of debt can be a useful tool for financing growth, excessive debt can strain a company’s finances and increase its vulnerability to economic downturns.

Personal debt, the debt owed by individuals, has also reached record highs in many countries. This is partly due to factors such as rising student loan balances, increasing healthcare costs, and the expansion of consumer credit. High levels of personal debt can reduce household spending power, further dampening economic growth.

The Looming Recession: A Threat to Business Stability

Economists are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a global recession in 2024. This recession could be triggered by a number of factors, including rising interest rates, a slowdown in economic growth in major economies, and geopolitical tensions.

A recession would have significant implications for businesses, leading to reduced demand for goods and services, job losses, and increased financial distress. Businesses that are overly reliant on debt may find themselves struggling to service their obligations and could even face bankruptcy.

Preparing for the Storm: Protecting Your Business

In the face of these challenges, business leaders need to take proactive steps to protect their companies and ensure their resilience in the face of economic uncertainty. Here are some key strategies to consider:

  1. Strengthen your balance sheet: Reduce debt levels, build up cash reserves, and improve your liquidity position. This will make your company more resilient to economic shocks and give you more flexibility in the event of a downturn.

  2. Diversify your customer base: Don’t become overly reliant on any single customer or industry. Expand your market reach and develop new customer relationships to reduce your vulnerability to sector-specific downturns.

  3. Focus on cost efficiency: Identify areas where you can reduce costs without compromising quality or customer service. This could involve streamlining operations, renegotiating contracts with suppliers, and adopting new technologies.

  4. Enhance your supply chain resilience: Develop contingency plans to deal with disruptions in your supply chain. This could involve sourcing materials from multiple suppliers, diversifying transportation routes, and investing in inventory management systems.

  5. Communicate effectively with stakeholders: Keep your employees, customers, and investors informed about your company’s plans and strategies. Transparency and open communication can build trust and confidence in your company during challenging times.

The rising debt crisis and the looming global recession pose significant challenges for businesses. However, by taking proactive steps

to strengthen their balance sheets, diversify their customer base, focus on cost efficiency, enhance supply chain resilience, and communicate effectively, businesses can increase their resilience and position themselves for success in the years to come.

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Poor project management in UK

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Why the UK Cannot Complete Major Infrastructure Projects on Time and Within Budget

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The UK has a long history of struggling to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This has led to a number of high-profile delays and cost overruns, as well as a growing public frustration with the way in which infrastructure projects are managed.

There are a number of factors that contribute to the UK’s poor record on infrastructure delivery. These include:

  • A lack of long-term planning and strategic thinking. The UK government has often been accused of adopting a short-term approach to infrastructure planning, which has led to a lack of consistency and continuity.This has made it difficult to develop a long-term pipeline of projects that can be delivered efficiently.
  • A complex and fragmented procurement process. The UK’s procurement process is often complex and time-consuming,which can lead to delays and cost overruns. This is partly due to the fact that there is a lack of standardisation and consistency across different government departments and agencies.
  • A lack of expertise in managing large infrastructure projects. There is a shortage of skilled project managers in the UK, which can make it difficult to find the right people to lead and manage complex projects. This is compounded by the fact that many project managers in the UK are not properly trained or experienced.
  • A lack of political will to make tough decisions. The UK government has often been unwilling to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This is partly due to a fear of political backlash, but it is also due to a lack of understanding of the importance of infrastructure investment.

These factors have all contributed to a culture of risk aversion within the UK’s infrastructure industry. This has led to a focus on minimising risks rather than maximising value for money. As a result, projects are often over-engineered and over-specified, which leads to delays and cost overruns.

How to improve the UK’s record on infrastructure delivery

There are a number of things that the UK government can do to improve its record on infrastructure delivery. These include:

  • Develop a long-term infrastructure plan. The UK government needs to develop a long-term infrastructure plan that sets out the country’s infrastructure needs for the next 20 to 30 years. This plan should be based on a clear understanding of the country’s economic and social needs, and it should be regularly reviewed and updated.
  • Streamline the procurement process. The UK government needs to streamline the procurement process to make it more efficient and transparent.This could be done by standardising procurement procedures across different government departments and agencies, and by making more use of technology.
  • Invest in training and skills development. The UK government needs to invest in training and skills development to ensure that there is a sufficient supply of skilled project managers. This could be done by supporting professional development programs and by providing funding for apprenticeships and other training initiatives.
  • Make tough decisions. The UK government needs to be willing to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This includes making decisions about project scope, risks, and procurement.
  • Focus on value for money. The UK government needs to focus on value for money when delivering infrastructure projects. This means ensuring that projects are delivered to the highest possible standard, while also ensuring that they are delivered on time and within budget.
  • Improve project management practices. The UK government needs to improve project management practices across the public sector. This could be done by providing training and support to project managers, and by developing and implementing project management standards.
  • Increase investment in infrastructure. The UK government needs to increase investment in infrastructure. This will help to address the country’s infrastructure deficit and create jobs.
  • Publicly disclose project details. The UK government needs to publicly disclose all project details, including costs, risks, and timelines. This will help to improve transparency and accountability.
  • Appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister. The UK government needs to appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister who will be responsible for overseeing the delivery of all major infrastructure projects.

By taking these steps, the UK government can improve its record on infrastructure delivery and ensure that future projects are delivered on time and within budget.

In addition to the above, I would also like to add that the UK government needs to adopt a more collaborative approach to infrastructure delivery. This means working more closely with the private sector, as well as with local communities. By working together, the government and the private sector can share risks and expertise, and develop innovative solutions to infrastructure challenges.

The UK government also needs to be more open to using new technologies, such as modular construction and 3D printing. These technologies can help to reduce the time and cost of delivering infrastructure projects.

Finally, the UK government needs to be more accountable for its performance.

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Poor project management in the UK

When will coronavirus be over

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Hopefully not all the effects of the coronavirus pandemic will ever be over. The pandemic has given the world a stop clock to look at life in business in other ways. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed to stop people dying but we have been given a once in a century opportunity to change for the better.

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We may actually need more than one vaccine

Covid19 should really morph into something less or more deadly to survive and prosper so wherever we are we are a long way from returning to normal.

Instead of returning to normal and life in business being forever harder it could be easier and better.

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It is looking more likely that our leaders want to get back to business as usual not Business 2.1. This is understandable in terms of the complexity of getting over the worst of the pandemic. However all disasters present opportunities to change to transform into a better version of life in business.

For example around 40 percent of people in UK are still working from home compared to prepandemic rate of around 12 percent. One effect of this is to increase cost of working in short term but could it mean reduced costs of working in long term. Was it really necessary for so many people to commute to an office to work?

If the new normal postpandemic was 20 percent working from home it would mean the rest would commute every day as if it was the school holidays. Imagine how much easier that would be for all workers speed of distribution and the environment.

However that would destroy the value of many office blocks and some investments. Many of the UKs biggest property funds are frozen stopping investors withdrawing funds through fear the funds would collapse. How do you value assets post pandemic if people totally change their way of working.

How will retail recover? Will the High Street ever recover? Most retail experts feel that the world of retail may have changed forever. The virus may have turbo charged what was changing anyway but retailers and property valuations have now changed dramatically if society has changed irreversibly.

Our pension funds are no longer based on assets that are the same value. Will the value recover? It will but it will recover by basing investments in underlying assets fit for the purpose of the future not the past.

We may create a vaccine or vaccines for Covid19 and any morphed versions thereof. However if we are determined the impact of the virus will never be over. In a good way!

Could business leaders:

  1. Continue to offer takeaway services or do deliveries from their restaurants?
  2. Manufacture different products in addition to their core business products?
  3. Maintain and hold on to local suppliers instead of using overseas suppliers in diversification of supply chain lines?
  4. Explore online sales development to be more profitable?
  5. Hold on to cost cutting measures to grow profit?

So much good and bad will flow from the pandemic. It is important not to miss out on the good as well has mitigate the bad. What opportunities and threats are in front of you will depend on your industry and perhaps location.

Now is the time to take the best strategic risk management decisions to come out of the coronavirus pandemic stronger than when you went into it

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News opinions analysis reviews and activism with local and global people. Sixth generation movement to power 4th industrial revolution faster cheaper better. Connecting the world to achieve more with less.

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How do we improve on yesterday so that today and tomorrow is better and more cost effective. What is it that we have that is good?

  • What could be better?
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  • When will we achieve enough is good enough?
  • Where do we need to act?
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Striving for perfection is not our goal. Do not let perfection be the enemy of the good enough. Focus on making realistic changes for the better happen. Dreaming of a better world tomorrow does not make the real world good enough today.

Practical action to progressively improve the world we live in

Most people in 3rd world countries are not interested in woke words. They simply want to live better tomorrow than they did today. Most peoples 1st world problems could be alleviated with a holistic approach to good business management and lifestyle choices.

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Aspiration to live better wherever you live in the world can be fulfilled by solving all our problems together at once not by a piecemeal approach. Good words do not put food on the table or a roof over your head. Sodding your neighbour does not protect you from destroying everything you have built around you.

People can work together for common good

We do not need to be in the same country culture or place to work as a team to achieve what we want for ourselves. Getting what you want can help others to get what they want out of the investment of time.

Putting up trade barriers does not work for the builder of walls. Forcing people to be in your gang does not make progression towards goals fast enough. Seeing the mutual benefit at the end for all people on the bus does.

Our holistic approach to making decisions for the common good will be successful for all who lend support

If you put your shoulder to the wheel you can reap the rewards from the effort.

We are not looking for constant companions but do seek constant progress. Moving it forward a little everyday is better than big leaps now and again. We do not need to be beside you for every step but would like to be with you at the end of the journey. We can achieve more together than on our own.

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Reduce supply chain risk. Should one supplier be shutdown for whatever reason your business should be able to continue without interruption. At the very least ensure you have alternative risk control measures to react to normal supply interruptions. The proximate cause of the supply chain disruption could be wide and varied including fire political social unrest natural disaster or even something called coronavirus. Assessing the risks from your supply chain is critical to the resilience of your business. Diversifying supply chain can increase costs but need not automatically follow.

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Critical Key Supply’s Should Be Manufactured In Your Own Country More To Mitigate Breaking Supply Chain To Your Business

EU leaders last month stressed the need for the bloc to have strategic autonomy after the coronavirus crisis.

The European Union and its companies need to diversify their supply chains to reduce their reliance on individual countries but that does not mean bringing all production back to Europe

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With the coronavirus pandemic many have now realised that there has been an over reliance on Asia for the supply of key supplies. Austrian EU diplomats think this means more manufacturing and production of key supplies should be brought home. Whilst this does not mean all Asian supplies from Asia should cease it does mean more manufacturing is required in your own country to build supply resilience.

We need to look at how to build resilient supply chains based on diversification acknowledging the simple fact that we will not be able to manufacture everything locally

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Dutch trade minister Sigrid Kaag told reporters after the video conference with EU counterparts that there was an awakening to the need to determine the weakest links in value chains. How can you mitigate the overdependence on countries such as China or India when it comes to essential goods.

During the coronavirus pandemic France Germany and USA were just some of the countries who intervened at government level to stop supply of some products including personal protective equipment and medical equipment. When supply comes from outside your own country you are diversifying your supply chain but over reliance on overseas supply can increase risk of supply chain interruption. Arriving at the right balance is key to maintaining good business performance and strong business resilience.

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Your guide to enterprise wide risk assessment for your business

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Enterprise-wide risk management encompasses an effective enterprise-wide risk assessment process. Realise the importance of enterprise wide risk management for your business performance. Use enterprise wide risk assessment principles practices and processes to set strategic operational and project objectives and embed to ensure objectives are delivered. Tap into enterprise wide risk management consulting services.

Are you wasting the resources you already have? Could your business be more productive? Does your business operate as individuals not a team? Do your business functions operate to achieve their own aims not business goals? Why are you not reaching more new customers with your great business?

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Our enterprise wide risk assessment training and consultancy services help you to develop your own risk management capability. The aim is to boost your business performance with less uncertainty.

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Enterprise-wide Risk Assessments

Proven Steps to Mitigating Business Risks: A UK Business Leader’s Guide to Conducting an Enterprise-Wide Risk Assessment

An enterprise-wide risk assessment is a comprehensive evaluation of all types of risks that a business may face. This includes risks related to operations, financials, legal, regulatory, and reputational issues. By conducting a thorough risk assessment, businesses can identify potential threats and vulnerabilities and take proactive measures to mitigate or prevent them.

The first step in conducting an enterprise-wide risk assessment is to identify all areas of the business that are at risk. This includes both internal and external risks, such as supply chain disruptions, data breaches, and economic downturns. Once all areas of risk have been identified, the next step is to assess the likelihood and potential impact of each risk. This will help businesses prioritise which risks need to be addressed first.

Once the risks have been identified and prioritised, businesses can develop a risk management plan. This plan should include specific actions to mitigate or prevent each risk, as well as procedures to respond to and recover from a risk event. The plan should also include monitoring and reporting mechanisms to ensure that the plan is being implemented effectively.

In addition to the risk management plan, businesses should also consider implementing a risk management programme. This programme should include regular training for employees on risk management and incident response, as well as regular reviews of the risk management plan to ensure that it remains relevant and effective.

In conclusion, an enterprise-wide risk assessment is a critical tool for businesses to identify and manage potential threats and vulnerabilities. By conducting a thorough risk assessment, prioritising risks, and implementing a risk management plan, businesses can take proactive measures to mitigate or prevent risks and ensure their long-term success.

StepDescriptionAction
1Identify RisksIdentify all areas of the business that are at risk, including internal and external risks.
2Assess Likelihood and ImpactAssess the likelihood and potential impact of each identified risk.
3Prioritise RisksPrioritise identified risks based on likelihood and impact.
4Develop Risk Management PlanDevelop a risk management plan that includes specific actions to mitigate or prevent each risk, as well as procedures to respond to and recover from a risk event.
5Implement and Monitor Risk Management Programme Implement a risk management programme that includes regular training for employees on risk management and incident response, and regular reviews of the risk management plan to ensure that it remains relevant and effective.
5-step enterprise-wide risk assessment template

Note: The above table is just an example of a risk assessment template, it may not be sufficient to cover all risks and it’s important to consult professional and include all stakeholders involved.

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Your guide to supply chain risk management

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Supply Chain Risk Management

The importance of supply chain risks management and examples of supply chain risk controls

Supply chain risks refer to any potential disruptions or negative impacts on the supply chain that could impact an organisation’s ability to meet customer demand and/or fulfill their own business objectives. These risks can arise from a wide range of factors, such as natural disasters, geopolitical instability, economic volatility, supplier bankruptcy, and cyber threats. The importance of supply chain risk management cannot be overstated as it enables organisations to mitigate or avoid the negative impacts of these risks and maintain business continuity.

Effective supply chain risk management involves identifying potential risks and implementing strategies to minimise or eliminate them. Organisations need to assess the likelihood and impact of different types of supply chain risks and develop contingency plans to respond to disruptions. They also need to establish processes for monitoring their supply chain and identifying potential risks in real-time so that they can take immediate action to minimise their impact.

One of the most significant benefits of supply chain risk management is that it enables organisations to maintain their customer service levels and meet their business objectives. When supply chain disruptions occur, they can result in delays, product shortages, and quality issues that can negatively impact customer satisfaction and brand reputation. By proactively managing supply chain risks, organisations can minimise the likelihood of these disruptions occurring and ensure that they have the necessary resources and contingency plans in place to respond quickly and effectively.

Another benefit of supply chain risk management is that it enables organisations to reduce their overall supply chain costs. When supply chain disruptions occur, they can result in increased costs, such as rush orders, expedited transportation, and additional inventory holding costs. By managing supply chain risks, organisations can minimise these costs and optimise their supply chain operations to improve efficiency and reduce waste.

Here are some key supply chain risks that organisations need to be aware of, along with examples of supply chain risk controls:

Supply Chain RiskExamples of Risk Controls
Supplier bankruptcyDiversifying supplier base, conducting regular financial assessments of suppliers, establishing contingency plans to switch suppliers if necessary
Natural disastersDeveloping contingency plans for alternate transportation routes, stockpiling inventory in multiple locations, establishing communication channels with suppliers and logistics partners
Geopolitical instabilityDiversifying supplier base across different regions, monitoring political and economic developments in key regions, establishing contingency plans for political unrest
Cyber threatsImplementing cybersecurity measures such as firewalls, encryption, and multi-factor authentication, conducting regular cybersecurity audits, establishing incident response plans

In conclusion, supply chain risk management is a critical aspect of modern business operations that can help organisations maintain business continuity, meet customer demand, and optimise their supply chain operations. By identifying potential risks, developing contingency plans, and establishing effective monitoring processes, organisations can minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions and maintain a competitive edge in today’s global marketplace.

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USA president Donald Trump plans to add a 10 percent tariff to another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on 1st September. Without a trade deal the global economy will continue to suffer not just China and USA economys. Part of the trade war rhetoric from USA is that China is manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low to gain a competitive advantage.

A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive or to put it another way a weaker yuan makes it cheaper to buy more Chinese goods with foreign currencies.

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Here in the UK the low value of the pound is held up as a bad thing for the UK economy. The airwaves are full of woe about the negative effects of the low value of the pound on the UK. In the USA president Trump moans about the Federal Reserve keeping the value of the dollar too high with too high interest rates. In addition the USA Treasury classed China as a currency manipulator as it claims China manipulates its currency to keep it lower than warranted.

The USA Treasury says China manipulates its currency to keep it lower to improve its international balance of trade and gain unfair competitive advantage in international trade. USA is taking steps in a trade war to lower the value of the dollar and push up value of the yuan.

Why does president Trump and China want lower currency valuation and UK whinges and bellyaches over low value of pound?

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It seems that many people with their own political agenda are happy to talk the UK into a recession it does not need to enter if it looks at the opportunities from selling more overseas from UK. If you are open to more ideas to grow your business faster contact us.

Most of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK benefit from a low value in the pound. Their profits are in dollars and when converted to the pound these companies receive a currency benefit to business performance. Investors including the UKs pension funds receive a low value in currency beneficial online casino bonuses at bonushitlist.

Furthermore the UK is benefiting from more income from more tourists coming to the UK. UK tourism money from overseas visitors will help boost UK economy. Business leaders in UK tourism industry should be going all out to attract visitors to their business. The low value of the pound is giving these UK tourism related businesses a competitive advantage.

Without having to enter a trade war or manipulate its currency the UK has been dealt cards that includes low value of the pound. Instead of encouraging UK business leaders of SMEs and large firms to export export export the UK media and political opportunists talk down UK economy. The result is that the UK is failing to taking advantage of the low value of the pound.

By constantly talking up Brexit uncertainty and ignoring the real threats and opportunities from the current global economic conditions the UK will suffer more pain than it needs to that Germany Japan France Italy and most other countries are suffering too.

Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates to cope with the global economic slowdown. The UK can use the low value of the pound to trade its way out of the global economic slowdown. It could that is if business leaders focused on the real threats and opportunities from the low value of the pound.

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30th April 2020 Another 55000 Washing Machines in UK Homes Should Stop Being Used and Need Repairing or Replacing Owing to a Fire Risk

An extra 21 models have been added to the list of 524000 Hotpoint and Indesit washing machines being recalled. Whirlpool owns the washing machine brands. The product recall programme was ongoing despite coronavirus restrictions. The total number of models affected is 66.

About 20 percent of the Hotpoint and Indesit washing machines sold since 2014 are affected by a safety fault and need to be recalled.

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79 fires are thought to have been caused by an overheating door locking system in the washing machine. The fault develops over time according to Whirlpool.

Advice for washing machine owners

Whirlpool has set up a model checker online or call 0800 316 1442.

Owners of Hotpoint and Indesit washing machines bought since October 2014 will need to enter the model and serial number of their appliance found inside the door or on the back to see if it is one of those affected. Those who have previously checked and been given the all clear may need to check again due to the new models with faults added to fault affected list. Slots for a modification or replacement machine are available straight away.

All owners affected by the recall are entitled to a replacement washing machine or a repair to their existing appliance without charge but there is no offer from the company of a refund. They should stop using it until an engineer has checked it if necessary restrict its use to a cold wash.

4th March 2020 Toyota Motor Corp Recalling 3.2 Million Vehicles Worldwide To Address Fuel Pump Issue That Could Result In Engines Stalling.

Dealers will replace the fuel pumps with new ones.

Owners have complained of rough engine running engine not starting and loss of power while driving at low speeds.

21st November 2019 Fiat Chrysler Recalling 700000 sport utility vehicles SUVs worldwide due to faulty electrical connection could prevent engine starts or contribute to a stall

The automotive product recall covers 2011 to 2013 model year for Dodge Durango and Jeep Grand Cherokee SUVs. Fiat Chrysler are unaware of any injuries or accidents related to the fault and will notify owners at a later date when they will be able to schedule repairs at car dealerships.

Most of the vehicles being recalled are in USA. The rest are spread around the world including but not limited to Canada and Mexico.

20th July 2019 Dangerous Tumble Dryer Product Recall

Whirlpool is launching a full recall of any remaining fire prone tumble dryers. For 4 years now Whirlpool have resisted calls to recall tumble dryers when the fault emerged.

Tumble dryer brands affected include Hotpoint Indesit Creda Swan and Proline bought between April 2004 and September 2015 in UK.

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For more information on what to do if you bought a tumble dryer call 0800 151 0905 or visit CLICK HERE. Check if your tumble dryer is affected. If it is on the product recall list stop using it and unplug it immediately.

Options for tumble dryer owners include:

  • Obtain a free replacement dryer with no extra charges for collection or disposal of the old machine
  • Get a free one hour modification of the old machine
  • Take a discounted upgrade to a higher specification model than the free replacement
  • Obtain a partial refund of up to 150 pounds with owners of older machines getting less than those with newer ones

If your tumble dryer has already been modified as a safety upgrade you may not be able to take advantage of above options but call the helpline to double check.

#UKfiresafety

20th July 2019 Volvo Product Recall 500000 Worldwide

Volvo car manufacturer has concerns of fire risk. A plastic part of the engine can melt and deform and in extreme cases catch fire.

The product recall affects some cars made in the past five years. Volvo will contact affected customers.

There have been Volvo car fires as a result though no one has been injured.

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Volvo has reported how many fires have occurred as a result of the defect. The product defect affects cars from the models years 2014 to 2019 with four-cylinder diesel engines.

Car owners have been told that vehicles are safe to use if the car is not currently showing signs of a problem including engine warning light coming on lack of power from engine or an unusual smell.

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Recognise that you do have opportunities to improve your business and what you need to do to make them work well regardless of the business or economic environment.

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Create a business risk management plan after identifying key threats and opportunities for your business: PESTLE example

A business risk management plan for a business leader in the UK could include the following:

  1. Political risks:
  • Monitor changes in government policies and regulations that may affect the business
  • Assess the potential impact of political instability on the company’s operations and supply chain
  • Develop contingency plans for disruptions caused by political events
  1. Economic risks:
  • Monitor economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
  • Assess the potential impact of economic downturns on the company’s revenue and profitability
  • Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of economic fluctuations on the business
  1. Social risks:
  • Monitor changes in consumer behavior and preferences
  • Assess the potential impact of social trends on the company’s products and services
  • Develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
  1. Technological risks:
  • Monitor advances in technology that may disrupt the company’s business model
  • Assess the potential impact of technological innovations on the company’s competitiveness
  • Invest in research and development to stay ahead of technological changes
  1. Legal risks:
  • Monitor changes in laws and regulations that may affect the business
  • Assess the potential impact of legal changes on the company’s operations and compliance costs
  • Develop strategies to mitigate legal risks, such as insurance or implementing compliance programs
  1. Environmental risks:
  • Monitor changes in environmental regulations and standards
  • Assess the potential impact of environmental factors on the company’s operations and supply chain
  • Develop strategies to mitigate environmental risks, such as implementing sustainable practices or investing in renewable energy.

Note: PESTLE Analysis is a framework for assessing the external factors that may affect a business. It is a useful tool for identifying potential risks and opportunities for a business.

PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN

Risk TypeKey ConsiderationsPotential ImpactMitigation Strategies
Political risksChanges in government policies and regulationsDisruptions to operations and supply chainMonitor political developments, develop contingency plans
Economic risksEconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest ratesReduced revenue and profitabilityMonitor economic indicators, develop strategies to mitigate effects of economic fluctuations
Social risksChanges in consumer behavior and preferencesReduced demand for products and servicesMonitor social trends, develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risksAdvances in technology that may disrupt business modelLoss of competitivenessMonitor technological developments, invest in R&D to stay ahead of changes
Legal risksChanges in laws and regulationsIncreased compliance costs and legal liabilitiesMonitor legal developments, implement compliance programs and insurance
Environmental risksChanges in environmental regulations and standardsNegative impact on operations and supply chainMonitor environmental developments, implement sustainable practices and invest in renewable energy.
PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN

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Identify and treat risks to your business better

For risk management to work best it needs to be holistic and integrated into normal business decision making. Increase senior managers and executives awareness of enterprise risks impacting on enterprise objectives to boost performance.

  • Explore your organisations opportunities for innovation and development
  • Capture competitive advantages you have in your marketplace
  • Increase sales more profitably

Treat your enterprise risks better. Avoid reduce transfer or accept risks more holistically more cost effectively.

Improve your risk assessment process to manage risks to you enterprise

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Enterprise risk management should not be a functional affair. It should help inspire and engage all levels of the organisation in managing business risks holistically.

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Develop your organisations effectiveness at managing enterprise risks. Improve all employees risk awareness. Reduce your enterprises vulnerability. Build business resilience. Open up new business development opportunities.

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Get help to control the risks you can control

If you are responsible and accountable for key business decisions change your business decision making process to make quicker decisions with more confidence. Focus on the critical issues impacting on your business success or failure. Make the best decision possible with the most amount of available risk information.

  • Identify the critical risks impacting on your business objectives
  • To make business decisions quickly you need to aim for holistic benefits rather than perfect outcomes
  • Create a solid risk based decision making process you can rely on

Make tough decisions faster with more confidence. Make the right choice from available decision options based on what you want to achieve in business.

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Make business risk based decisions on issues with best business protection and growth outcomes. Make better faster business decisions.

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