A Perfect Storm: China’s Treasury Retreat and Rising U.S. Rates
The intricate dance between the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve, and foreign investors, particularly China, is a critical factor in maintaining economic stability. Recently, whispers of a potential shift in this dynamic have raised concerns about rising inflation and interest rates in the U.S. This article explores nine key reasons why a scenario where China reduces its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, coupled with the Fed increasing its purchases, could push the U.S. economy towards higher inflation and interest rates.
1. Supply and Demand Imbalance:
U.S. Treasuries are essentially government-issued IOUs, representing debt. China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, acts as a major creditor. When China reduces its holdings, it decreases the overall demand for Treasuries. This, in turn, disrupts the supply-demand balance. With fewer buyers, the price of Treasuries falls, and yields (the return on investment) rise. Higher yields incentivise other investors to buy Treasuries, but it also makes it more expensive for the U.S. government to borrow money.
2. The Fed Steps In, But at a Cost:
To fill the gap created by China’s retreat, the Federal Reserve might be forced to increase its purchases of Treasuries. This quantitative easing (QE) injects money into the financial system, aiming to stimulate economic activity. However, this additional liquidity can also lead to inflation, as more money chasing the same amount of goods and services can drive prices up.
3. The Dollar Wobbles:
China’s decision to sell Treasuries could weaken the U.S. dollar. This is because a significant portion of the dollars China earns from its exports gets recycled back into the U.S. economy through Treasury purchases. With fewer purchases, the demand for dollars falls, potentially weakening its value. A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive, further fueling inflation.
4. A Vicious Cycle of Higher Borrowing Costs:
As mentioned earlier, a decrease in demand for Treasuries pushes yields higher. This translates to higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government. To meet its spending obligations, the government might need to borrow more, further pressuring interest rates upwards. This creates a vicious cycle, potentially hindering economic growth as businesses find borrowing for expansion more expensive.
5. The Domino Effect on Consumer Borrowing:
Rising interest rates don’t just affect the government. Consumers also face the brunt, as mortgages, auto loans, and credit card interest rates climb. This can lead to a decrease in consumer spending, which is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. Reduced spending can lead to slower economic growth and potentially even deflationary pressures.
6. The Global Financial Tug-of-War:
The U.S. is not alone in its battle with inflation. Central banks worldwide are grappling with similar issues. If China’s Treasury selloff triggers a significant rise in U.S. interest rates, it could create a global tug-of-war. Other countries might be forced to raise their rates as well to maintain the relative attractiveness of their own currencies. This could stifle global economic growth.
7. Investor Confidence Takes a Hit:
A large-scale selloff by China could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy. This could spook other investors, both domestic and foreign, leading to capital flight. Capital flight occurs when investors move their money out of the U.S. in search of safer havens. This can further weaken the dollar and exacerbate inflation.
8. The Geopolitical Angle:
The U.S.-China relationship has been strained in recent years. Some analysts believe China might use its Treasury holdings as a political weapon, strategically selling them to pressure the U.S. on trade or geopolitical issues. Such a move could be even more disruptive to the U.S. financial system, amplifying the aforementioned economic effects.
9. The Long-Term Uncertainty:
The long-term implications of a significant shift in China’s Treasury holdings are uncertain. The U.S. might find alternative buyers for its debt, but the process could be bumpy and lead to market volatility. Additionally, the effectiveness of the Fed’s response in such a scenario is debatable, with some economists questioning the efficacy of QE in the current economic climate.
Conclusion:
While the exact impact of China reducing its Treasury holdings is difficult to predict, the potential consequences for the U.S. economy are significant. Higher inflation and interest rates could dampen economic growth, strain consumer spending, and lead to market volatility. The Federal Reserve will have its hands full in navigating this potential storm, and the success of its response will be crucial in maintaining economic stability. It is important to note that this is a complex issue with various schools of thought.
It is important to note that this is a complex issue with various schools of thought. Some economists argue that China’s reduced demand for Treasuries might be offset by increased domestic demand from U.S. institutions like pension funds and insurance companies. Additionally, the U.S. government could take steps to reduce its budget deficit, thereby lessening its reliance on foreign borrowing.
Ultimately, the outcome hinges on several factors, including the magnitude of China’s selloff, the Fed’s response, and the overall health of the U.S. economy. Open communication and cooperation between the U.S. and China will be crucial in mitigating the potential negative consequences.
Looking Ahead:
The coming months will be critical in observing how this situation unfolds. The U.S. government’s debt issuance plans, China’s Treasury holdings data, and the Fed’s monetary policy pronouncements will be closely watched by financial markets.
Proactive measures by policymakers can help mitigate the risks. The U.S. government should strive for fiscal responsibility, while the Fed should calibrate its quantitative easing programs to ensure economic stability without stoking inflation excessively.
This potential shift in the U.S.-China economic relationship presents a challenge, but it also offers an opportunity for innovation and diversification. The U.S. can explore alternative funding sources and develop a broader investor base for its debt.
In conclusion, while the potential consequences of China reducing its Treasury holdings are concerning, proactive measures and a diversified approach can help the U.S. navigate this complex situation. Continuous vigilance and a commitment to economic stability by policymakers will be paramount in ensuring a smooth transition for the U.S. economy.
Beyond Greenbacks: The New Development Bank and the Rise of Local Currency Financing in the BRICS
The global financial landscape is shifting, and the BRICS alliance, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is at the forefront of this change. One key area of innovation lies in the New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2014, which is now actively pursuing local currency financing for its development projects. This move aligns with a broader strategy of de-dollarisation and increased currency swapping, aimed at reducing dependence on the US dollar and fostering an alternative financial ecosystem.
The Dominance of the US Dollar and its Challenges
The US dollar has reigned supreme as the world’s dominant reserve currency for decades, enjoying widespread acceptance in international trade and finance. However, this reliance has also brought challenges, particularly for emerging economies within the BRICS bloc. Fluctuations in the dollar’s value can negatively impact their economies, and exposure to US monetary policy can limit their own policy autonomy. Additionally, concerns about potential US sanctions or limitations on access to dollars pose further risks.
The Rise of Local Currency Financing and the NDB’s Role
To mitigate these vulnerabilities, the BRICS nations have increasingly championed local currency financing as a viable alternative. This involves using domestic currencies for international transactions and development projects, reducing reliance on the US dollar. The NDB plays a crucial role in facilitating this shift by offering loans and investments in local currencies like the Brazilian real, the Russian ruble, the Indian rupee, the Chinese yuan, and the South African rand.
Benefits of Local Currency Financing
Several advantages accompany local currency financing:
Reduced Exchange Rate Volatility: Projects funded in local currency are shielded from fluctuations in the dollar’s value, providing greater financial stability and predictability.
Enhanced Monetary Policy Autonomy: By reducing dependence on dollar-denominated debt, BRICS member countries gain greater control over their own monetary policies, tailoring them to their specific economic needs.
Financial Inclusion: Local currency financing expands access to financial services for individuals and businesses within the BRICS region, fostering economic development and financial stability.
Diminished Risk of Sanctions: Moving away from the dollar reduces exposure to potential US sanctions or restrictions on dollar transactions, strengthening the BRICS economies’ resilience.
Challenges and Future Outlook
Despite its advantages, local currency financing also faces certain challenges. Liquidity in local currencies may be limited, particularly for less widely traded currencies like the rand or the real. Building market infrastructure and establishing robust exchange rate mechanisms are crucial to overcome these hurdles. Additionally, fostering trust and acceptance in local currencies among international investors is essential for wider adoption.
However, the future looks promising for the NDB’s local currency financing initiative. The bank has already successfully implemented this approach in several projects, including a renewable energy project in South Africa funded in rand and a sustainable infrastructure project in Brazil financed in reais. As the BRICS alliance continues to solidify its economic and financial cooperation, and local currency markets develop further, the NDB is poised to play a pivotal role in driving de-dollarisation and establishing a more diversified and resilient international financial system.
Beyond Loan Financing: Currency Swapping and Regional Payment Systems
Local currency financing is just one piece of the BRICS’ de-dollarisation puzzle. The alliance is also actively exploring currency swapping arrangements, agreements where member countries exchange their domestic currencies to facilitate trade and investment within the bloc. These measures further reduce reliance on the dollar and create a more integrated BRICS financial ecosystem.
Additionally, the BRICS nations are pushing for the development of regional payment systems, such as the New Development Bank Infrastructure Development and Investment Company (NDB BricsInfra) payment platform. This platform aims to enable cross-border transactions within the BRICS region using local currencies without relying on the SWIFT international payments system, potentially giving the BRICS nations greater control over their financial transactions.
Conclusion: A Shifting Landscape and the BRICS at the Forefront
The New Development Bank’s embrace of local currency financing exemplifies the BRICS alliance’s strategic shift towards a more multipolar financial system. As the dominance of the US dollar wanes and local currencies gain traction, the NDB is poised to play a key role in shaping this new financial landscape. By promoting financial inclusion, enhancing monetary policy autonomy, and mitigating exposure to dollar-related risks, the NDB’s local currency initiatives serve not only the BRICS nations but also contribute to a more diverse and resilient global financial system. The next decade will be crucial in determining the success of these endeavours, and the BRICS alliance is undoubtedly at the forefront of this transformative shift.
Here are some illustrative examples of NDB-funded projects that demonstrate the bank’s commitment to local currency financing and its diverse development priorities:
Projects Funded in Local Currency:
Brazil:
Sustainable Urban Development Program for the State of Ceará: A $354 million loan in Brazilian reais to improve urban infrastructure, transportation, and social services in the state of Ceará.
Water Supply and Sanitation Project in the State of Rio Grande do Sul: A $500 million loan in reais to expand water and sanitation services to underserved communities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
South Africa:
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPP) Round 4: A ZAR 3.5 billion loan (South African rand) to support the construction of 5 renewable energy projects,including solar and wind power plants.
Eskom Renewables Support Project: A ZAR 3.7 billion loan to finance the construction of 6 solar photovoltaic plants,contributing to South Africa’s transition to cleaner energy sources.
India:
Bangalore Metro Rail Project – Phase II: A ₹58 billion loan (Indian rupees) to expand the Bangalore Metro Rail system, enhancing urban connectivity and reducing traffic congestion.
Multi-Village Integrated Development Project in Madhya Pradesh: A ₹35 billion loan to improve rural infrastructure,including irrigation, roads,drinking water, and sanitation facilities, in Madhya Pradesh.
Projects Demonstrating Regional Cooperation and Sustainability:
Railway Line Modernisation Project in Russia: A $500 million loan to upgrade a railway line connecting Russia and Kazakhstan, promoting regional trade and economic integration.
New Development Bank Innovation and Knowledge Hub: An initiative to establish a knowledge-sharing platform and foster innovation in sustainable development practices across the BRICS nations.
Green Finance Facility: A $10 billion fund established to support green and low-carbon infrastructure projects in the BRICS countries, addressing climate change concerns and promoting sustainable development.
These examples showcase the NDB’s focus on sustainable development, infrastructure investment, regional connectivity, and local currency financing. By prioritising these areas, the NDB is contributing to the BRICS alliance’s goals of economic growth, social progress, and environmental sustainability, while simultaneously fostering greater financial independence from the US dollar.
Inflationary Headwinds: The spectre of inflation, once a distant memory, has reared its ugly head. Prices are skyrocketing across essential goods and services, squeezing household budgets and threatening social unrest. The U.S., for instance, saw inflation at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, though it has dipped since, the worry of resurgence remains. Hopes that global inflation is coming under control may prove premature given continuing wars in Ukraine and Gaza/Israel and drought in Panama Canal causing shipping costs (and future prices in shops and service industry) to spike and limiting interest rate cut wiggle room in West.
Stagflationary Nightmares: The chilling possibility of stagflation – a toxic cocktail of high inflation and low growth – lurks in the shadows. Central banks, attempting to curb inflation, tighten their monetary belts, potentially choking off economic activity and jobs. This double whammy could be especially devastating for developing nations. Persistently high inflation due to above will, or should, limit the West’s central banks ability to pump cheap money into grow economies that are already in or slipping into recession.
Geopolitical Flashpoints: From the ongoing war in Ukraine to simmering tensions in the Middle East and Asia (continuing tensions with China over a number of issues including Taiwan), geopolitical volatility threatens to disrupt global supply chains and energy markets, further fuelling inflation and economic turbulence.
These are just a few examples of the economic headwinds gathering force. While the extent of their impact remains uncertain, one thing is clear: ignoring the storm clouds won’t make them disappear.
Quotes on Preparing for the Global Economic Storm 2024:
“A stitch in time saves nine,” as the adage goes. Preparing for a potential economic crisis in 2024 isn’t about fear-mongering; it’s about responsible anticipation and proactive risk management.
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now,” quips entrepreneur, Mark Evans. He echoes the sentiment that “taking small steps today, like building financial buffers and honing essential skills, can make a world of difference tomorrow.”
So, how do we navigate this impending economic storm? While the future remains unpredictable, proactive measures can increase our chances of weathering the turbulence. Here are some key areas to focus on:
Financial Fortitude: Shore up your finances. Build an emergency fund that can cover several months of essential expenses. Revise your budget, cutting unnecessary costs and prioritising necessities. Pay down debt whenever possible to reduce ongoing financial burdens.
Skill Development: Invest in yourself. Hone your existing skills and acquire new ones that might be valuable in a changing job market. Focus on adaptability and resilience, developing transferable skills that can be applied in diverse settings.
Community Connections: Strengthen your social network. Fostering close bonds with family, friends, and neighbours can provide invaluable support and resources during challenging times. Community resilience flourishes through collaboration and mutual aid.
Sustainable Strategies: Embrace sustainable practices in your daily life. Grow your own food, invest in renewable energy sources, and minimise your environmental footprint. Building self-sufficiency reduces reliance on volatile external systems.
Positive Mindset: Cultivate a resilient and optimistic attitude. Recognise that challenges are inevitable, but so is our ability to overcome them. Focus on finding solutions, adapting to change, and embracing an “always learning” approach.
This isn’t just about surviving the immediate economic storm; it’s about forging a more resilient future for ourselves and generations to come. We must advocate for policies that promote sustainable economic growth, address income inequality, and build social safety nets. Supporting initiatives that foster environmental stewardship and global cooperation is crucial for mitigating future vulnerabilities.
The coming years may be fraught with challenges, but they also present an opportunity for transformation. This economic storm can be a catalyst for change, pushing us to rethink our relationship with money, resources, and each other. We can emerge from the turbulence stronger, more adaptable, and more conscious of the interconnectedness of our global community.
Embrace creativity and innovation. Difficult times often spark ingenuity and resourcefulness. Look for unconventional solutions, explore alternative pathways, and don’t be afraid to challenge the status quo.
Focus on the silver lining. Amidst the storm clouds, there are always glimmers of hope. Invest in your mental and emotional well-being. Find joy in the everyday, nurture your relationships, and cultivate a sense of purpose and meaning that transcends economic uncertainties.
The economic storm of 2024 and beyond may be formidable, but it doesn’t have to define us. By preparing today, building resilience, and fostering a spirit of collaboration, we can navigate the turbulence and emerge stronger, more empowered, and ready to co-create a more sustainable and equitable future for all.
10 Recommendations for Business Leaders to Build Business Resilience:
1. Diversify Revenue Streams: Don’t rely on a single source of income. Explore new products, services, or markets to spread risk and ensure revenue flow during potential downturns. Remember, the saying “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”
3. Invest in Technology: Leverage technology to automate tasks, streamline operations, and improve efficiency. This can reduce costs, boost productivity, and make your business more responsive to external pressures.
4. Prioritise Talent Acquisition and Retention:Attract and retain top talent by offering competitive compensation, fostering a positive work culture, and investing in employee development. A strong and loyal team is vital for weathering difficult times.
5. Strengthen Supply Chains: Diversify your supplier base and build strong relationships with key partners. Develop alternative sourcing strategies to mitigate the impact of disruptions in any one part of your supply chain.
6. Manage Debt Wisely: Avoid excessive debt burdens, especially during uncertain times. Maintain healthy cash reserves and negotiate favourable loan terms to ensure financial stability and maneuverability.
7. Communicate Transparently: Keep employees, customers, and stakeholders informed about any challenges or changes facing the business. Open communication builds trust and fosters collaborative solutions in the face of adversity.
8. Embrace Sustainability: Implement sustainable practices across your operations, from resource management to environmental consciousness. This can not only mitigate economic risks but also enhance your brand image and attract environmentally conscious consumers.
9. Build Community Partnerships: Collaborate with other businesses, organisations, and community stakeholders. Shared resources, collective knowledge, and mutual support can strengthen everyone’s resilience in the face of economic challenges.
10. Foster a Positive Mindset: Encourage optimism and resilience within your organisation. Lead by example with a proactive and solutions-oriented approach. A positive company culture can boost morale, drive productivity, and create a fertile ground for navigating difficult times.
By implementing these recommendations, business leaders can equip their organisations for the coming economic storm and emerge stronger on the other side. Remember, preparation, adaptation, and collaboration are key to building a resilient business that can thrive in any climate.
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The Looming Dominoes: How US and China’s Property Crises Could Topple the Global Financial Tower in 2024
Across the world, two seemingly distant tremours are rumbling beneath the surface of the global financial system – the potential U.S. Real Estate Crisis 2024 and the deepening China Property Crisis. While continents apart, these crises are intricately linked by a web of debt, speculation, and interconnectedness, threatening to trigger a catastrophic domino effect that could topple the very foundations of global banking and shadow banking in 2024.
Cracks in the American Dream: US Real Estate on the Precipice
The once-booming US real estate market, fuelled by years of cheap money and rampant speculation, is teetering on the edge of a potential collapse. A confluence of factors is creating the perfect storm:
Loan Interest Increase: The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation through rising interest rates is making mortgages and commercial real estate loans significantly more expensive, chilling demand and straining borrowers.
US Commercial Real Estate Value Collapse: Overbuilt office spaces, declining retail foot traffic, and the rise of remote work are eroding the value of commercial properties, particularly in saturated markets. This bubble, inflated by speculation, is at risk of popping, leading to defaults and widespread losses.
Shadow Banking’s Hidden Time Bomb: Beyond traditional banks, a complex web of hedge funds, private equity firms, and non-bank lenders hold a significant portion of US housing and commercial real estate debt. These entities, operating with less regulation and higher leverage, are particularly vulnerable to losses in a downturn, potentially triggering panic in the financial system.
China’s Ghost Cities Haunt the Global Economy:
Meanwhile, the once-unstoppable juggernaut of China’s property market is grinding to a halt. Years of reckless lending and unchecked developer speculation have left the landscape dotted with “ghost cities” – empty apartment blocks and unfinished mega-projects, all burdened by mountains of debt. This crisis manifests in several ways:
Property Market Slowdown: With sales plummeting and developers struggling to stay afloat, the once-exponential growth of the Chinese property market has stalled. This slowdown dampens demand for construction materials and commodities, impacting global trade and manufacturing.
Debt Contagion: The vast web of debt woven into China’s property sector extends beyond its borders. International banks and asset managers heavily invested in Chinese real estate loans face potential for significant losses, impacting their solvency and lending capacity worldwide.
Global Recessionary Spiral: A full-blown collapse of China’s property market could trigger a domino effect across the global economy. Slowing growth in China, a major consumer of goods and services, would ripple through international trade and supply chains, potentially tipping the world into a recession.
The Perfect Storm: Convergence of Crises, Catastrophic Consequences
The potential convergence of these two crises in 2024 paints a chilling picture. A US real estate crash, amplified by shadow banking woes, could send shockwaves through the global financial system. This, in turn, could exacerbate China’s property crisis, creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral. The consequences could be dire:
Global Banking Crisis: Widespread losses from defaulted loans and plunging asset values could cripple traditional banks and shadow lenders, leading to liquidity crunches, credit rationing, and potentially bank failures.
Economic Recession: Disruptions in the financial system and a synchronised slowdown in the US and Chinese economies could plunge the world into a recession, impacting jobs, trade, and investment worldwide.
Social Unrest: Rising unemployment, financial hardship, and eroded trust in the financial system could lead to social unrest and political instability in various countries.
A Crossroads of Crisis and Opportunity:
The looming storm casts a long shadow over the global economic landscape. However, it also presents an opportunity for transformation. By acknowledging the interconnectedness of these crises and acting with foresight and collaboration, we can navigate towards a future of greater resilience and sustainable growth. Here are some potential solutions:
Macroeconomic Coordination: Central banks and governments across the globe need to coordinate their responses to inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing growth. Tailored interest rate adjustments, targeted fiscal interventions, and proactive regulations can help mitigate the risks and foster stability.
Transparency and Risk Management: Financial institutions, both traditional and shadow banks, must be transparent about their exposure to US and Chinese real estate and actively manage their risk profiles. Increased capital buffers, robust stress testing, and greater regulatory oversight are crucial in preventing a domino effect of collapses.
Diversification and Innovation: Businesses and investors need to diversify their portfolios and explore alternative investment strategies. Building a more resilient economy less reliant on overleveraged asset markets and promoting innovation in sectors like renewable energy and technology can create new opportunities for growth.
Strengthening Global Safety Nets: Strengthening International Cooperation
Conclusion: Building a Global Shield Against the Looming Catastrophe
The potential for a cataclysmic collision between the US and Chinese property crises necessitates not just proactive measures, but a fundamental reimagining of the global financial system. We must act as one on a global stage, building a collective shield against the looming catastrophe.
Beyond Mitigation, Embracing Transformation:
While mitigating the immediate risks of the converging crises is essential, simply patching the cracks in the existing system is not enough. We must embrace transformative thinking to build a more resilient and inclusive financial landscape. This requires:
Rethinking Leverage and Shadow Banking: The overreliance on debt and the opaque underbelly of shadow banking have contributed significantly to the current turmoil. Implementing stricter regulations, promoting responsible lending practices, and encouraging transparency within the financial ecosystem are crucial steps towards sustainable growth.
Investing in Inclusive Prosperity: Addressing inequality and fostering inclusive economic development are not just moral imperatives, but vital pillars of resilience. Investments in education, healthcare, and social safety nets create a more robust population less susceptible to economic shocks.
Embracing Green Finance: Shifting investments towards renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, and climate-resilient technologies are not just environmentally beneficial, but also offer lucrative avenues for economic diversification and long-term stability.
A Call to Collective Action:
The responsibility to avert this crisis and build a brighter future lies not solely with governments and financial institutions, but with every individual. We can contribute by:
Staying informed: Engaging with responsible financial literacy resources and holding leaders accountable for their actions.
Demanding transparency: Urging financial institutions to disclose their exposure to risky assets and advocating for stricter regulations.
Making mindful choices: Prioritising financial prudence, diversification, and ethical investment practices in our own lives.
The Crossroads Awaits:
We stand at a crossroads, facing a potential financial calamity unlike any we have seen before. However, within this crisis lies an opportunity for genuine transformation, a chance to forge a more equitable, sustainable, and resilient future for generations to come. By acting with foresight, collaboration, and a shared sense of responsibility, we can not only weather the storm, but emerge stronger, building a global financial system that serves the needs of all, not just the privileged few. Let us harness the collective power of our interconnected world to rewrite the narrative, transforming this looming catastrophe into a catalyst for a better tomorrow.
This article offers narrative on the potential global financial crisis and the path towards a more resilient future. Remember, the power to turn the tide lies within each of us. Let us choose foresight over fear, collaboration over division, and build a future where prosperity and well-being are the cornerstones of the global financial landscape.
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BRICS Expands to 11 with Admission of 6 New Members
The BRICS bloc of developing nations has expanded to 11 with the admission of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The decision was made at the 15th BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 24, 2023.
The expansion of BRICS is seen as a major step in the bloc’s efforts to reshuffle the global order. The bloc’s members represent over 40% of the world’s population and 25% of the global economy. With the addition of the six new members, BRICS will become even more diverse and influential.
The new members of BRICS bring a variety of strengths to the bloc. Argentina is a major agricultural exporter and has a strong manufacturing sector. Egypt is a regional power in North Africa and the Middle East. Ethiopia is a rapidly growing economy with a young and dynamic population. Iran is a major oil producer and has a strategic location in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter and has a powerful military. The United Arab Emirates is a financial and trade hub in the Middle East.
The expansion of BRICS is likely to have a significant impact on the global economy and geopolitics. The bloc is now better positioned to challenge the dominance of the United States and other Western powers. It is also likely to play a more active role in global affairs, such as climate change and trade.
The decision to expand BRICS was not without controversy. Some critics have argued that the bloc is becoming too large and unwieldy. Others have expressed concerns about the human rights records of some of the new members. However, the leaders of BRICS have dismissed these concerns, arguing that the bloc is committed to promoting democracy, development, and peace.
The expansion of BRICS is a major development that is likely to have a significant impact on the global order. The bloc is now well-positioned to play a more prominent role in global affairs. It will be interesting to see how BRICS evolves in the years to come.
The Significance of the New BRICS Members
The admission of six new members to BRICS is a significant development that has the potential to reshape the global order. The new members, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, bring a variety of strengths to the bloc, including their large populations, growing economies, and strategic locations.
The addition of these countries will make BRICS more diverse and representative of the global community. It will also give the bloc a stronger voice in international affairs. BRICS is now well-positioned to challenge the dominance of the United States and other Western powers.
The new members of BRICS also have a number of shared interests. They are all developing countries that are seeking to grow their economies and improve the lives of their citizens. They are also all concerned about the rise of protectionism and unilateralism in the global economy.
The expansion of BRICS is likely to have a number of positive implications for the global economy. It will create new opportunities for trade and investment, and it will help to promote economic development in the developing world. It will also make the global economy more resilient to shocks and crises.
The expansion of BRICS is also likely to have a positive impact on global geopolitics. The bloc is now better positioned to play a more active role in resolving conflicts and promoting peace. It is also likely to be more effective in addressing global challenges such as climate change and terrorism.
Overall, the expansion of BRICS is a positive development that has the potential to make the world a more prosperous and peaceful place. It is a sign that the developing world is rising to challenge the dominance of the West.
The Challenges Facing BRICS
While the expansion of BRICS is a positive development, it also faces a number of challenges. One challenge is that the bloc is now so large and diverse that it may be difficult to reach consensus on important issues. Another challenge is that some of the new members have poor human rights records. This could damage the reputation of BRICS and make it more difficult for the bloc to achieve its goals.
Despite these challenges, BRICS has the potential to be a force for good in the world. The bloc can help to promote economic development, peace, and stability in the developing world. It can also help to challenge the dominance of the West and create a more just and equitable global order.
The future of BRICS is uncertain, but it has the potential to be a major player in the global arena. The bloc will need to overcome its challenges and learn to work together effectively if it is to achieve its full potential.
BRICS Summit August 2023
The 15th BRICS summit will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa on 22-24 August 2023. The theme of the summit is “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism”.
The summit will be attended by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as representatives from other BRICS countries and partner nations. The agenda for the summit is expected to include discussions on a range of issues, including:
The global economic outlook and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
Trade and investment
Climate change and sustainable development
Regional cooperation
International security
Business leaders around the world can expect the BRICS summit to have a significant impact on the global economy. The BRICS countries are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, and they are increasingly playing a leading role in global trade and investment. The summit is likely to provide a platform for the BRICS countries to discuss their shared economic interests and to coordinate their efforts to promote economic growth and development.
In addition to the economic agenda, the BRICS summit is also likely to address a number of other issues that are of interest to business leaders. These include:
The development of new technologies and their impact on the global economy
The need for greater cooperation between businesses and governments to address global challenges
The importance of sustainable development and the need to protect the environment
The BRICS summit is a major event that will have a significant impact on the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
In addition to the economic agenda, the BRICS summit is also likely to discuss the issue of membership expansion. More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, and the summit could provide an opportunity for the BRICS countries to discuss the criteria for membership and to make a decision on whether to expand the group.
The inclusion of new members would strengthen BRICS and make it a more powerful force in the global economy. However, it is important to note that there are also some challenges associated with membership expansion. For example, it would be important to ensure that new members are committed to the BRICS principles and that they are able to contribute to the group’s work.
Overall, the 15th BRICS summit is a major event that will have a significant impact on the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
Here are some additional details about the theme of the 2023 BRICS summit and the countries that want to join BRICS:
The theme of the 2023 BRICS summit, “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism”, reflects the growing importance of Africa to the BRICS countries. Africa is home to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, and the BRICS countries are keen to increase their trade and investment ties with the continent.
The countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS include: Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan. These countries are all looking to gain access to the BRICS market and to benefit from the group’s economic and political influence.
The BRICS summit is a significant event that has the potential to shape the global economy. Business leaders around the world should pay close attention to the outcomes of the summit and to the implications for their businesses.
BRICS Currency Pros and Cons
The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – are some of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. To further boost their economic cooperation, the idea of creating a common currency for these countries has been floated for several years. In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of a BRICS currency for these countries.
Pros of a BRICS currency:
Improved trade relations: One of the main advantages of a common currency is that it can increase trade between BRICS countries. By eliminating the need for currency conversion, transactions between these countries can become smoother and faster. This can lead to greater trade volume and a stronger economic relationship between the BRICS nations.
Reduced transaction costs: A common currency would reduce the costs of currency conversion and cross-border transactions. This would make it easier and more cost-effective for businesses in the BRICS countries to trade with each other, which could increase economic growth and create new opportunities for trade and investment.
Increased economic stability: A common currency would provide more stability for the economies of the BRICS countries. By reducing the volatility of currency exchange rates, businesses would be able to better plan for the future and make more informed decisions. This could lead to increased investment and economic growth in the BRICS countries.
Greater financial integration: A common currency would foster greater financial integration between the BRICS countries, making it easier for them to access each other’s financial markets. This could lead to increased cross-border investment and the development of new financial products and services.
Cons of a BRICS currency:
Political difficulties: The creation of a common currency would require significant political cooperation and coordination between the BRICS countries. This could be difficult to achieve, as each country has different political and economic systems and priorities.
Economic differences: The economies of the BRICS countries are at different stages of development, and some are more advanced than others. This could make it difficult to maintain a common currency, as the economies of the BRICS countries may evolve at different rates and in different directions.
Lack of monetary independence: By adopting a common currency, the BRICS countries would give up their monetary independence and would no longer be able to use monetary policy to address their own economic challenges. This could limit their ability to respond to economic shocks and difficulties.
Need for significant structural reforms: To make a common currency work, the BRICS countries would need to undertake significant structural reforms to ensure that their economies are compatible with each other. This could be a long and difficult process, and there is no guarantee of success.
In conclusion, the idea of a BRICS currency has both potential advantages and drawbacks for the BRICS countries. While it could lead to greater economic cooperation, stability, and growth, it would also require significant political cooperation, structural reforms, and give up monetary independence. Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to adopt a common currency will depend on a careful consideration of the pros and cons, and a willingness to work together towards a common goal.
Unlocking the Potential: The Pros and Cons of a BRICS Currency for Global Business Leaders
A business plan for non-BRICS country businesses to protect and grow their business in or with BRICS countries should include the following steps:
Market research: Conduct thorough market research to understand the economic and political conditions, cultural differences, and consumer preferences in each of the BRICS countries. This will help you tailor your business strategy to each market.
Localisation: To succeed in a foreign market, it is essential to localize your business operations. This includes adapting your products and services to the local market, localising your marketing and branding efforts, and building local partnerships.
Local partnerships: Building local partnerships with suppliers, distributors, and customers is critical to success in the BRICS countries. This will help you overcome challenges such as language barriers, cultural differences, and regulations.
Risk management: Doing business in foreign countries comes with inherent risks, such as currency fluctuations, political instability, and economic uncertainty. To mitigate these risks, it is important to have a robust risk management plan in place. This can include currency hedging, insurance, and contingency planning.
Cultural sensitivity: To succeed in the BRICS countries, it is important to understand and respect the local culture and customs. This includes adapting your communication and business practices to local norms, and avoiding cultural missteps that could harm your reputation.
Compliance: Each of the BRICS countries has its own unique regulations and legal requirements. It is important to understand and comply with these regulations to avoid costly penalties and legal disputes.
Continuous monitoring: Doing business in foreign countries requires ongoing monitoring and adaptation. Keep track of market trends, political and economic conditions, and consumer preferences in each of the BRICS countries to ensure that your business is positioned for success.
By following these steps, non-BRICS country businesses can protect and grow their business in the BRICS countries, taking advantage of the tremendous economic opportunities that these markets offer.
What do BRICS countries want to export and import
The BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are among the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. As such, they have a diverse range of exports and imports. Here’s a general overview of what each of these countries tend to export and import:
Brazil: Brazil is a major exporter of commodities such as iron ore, soybeans, petroleum, and coffee. It imports a range of goods including machinery, electronic equipment, vehicles, and chemicals.
Russia: Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and natural gas, as well as other commodities such as metals and timber. It imports a variety of goods including machinery, electronics, and consumer goods.
India: India is a major exporter of textiles, pharmaceuticals, and information technology services. It imports a range of goods including machinery, crude oil, and precious metals.
China: China is the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods, including electronics, machinery, and textiles. It imports a range of goods including crude oil, raw materials, and food products.
South Africa: South Africa is a major exporter of precious metals such as gold and platinum, as well as other commodities such as coal and iron ore. It imports a range of goods including machinery, vehicles, and chemicals.
It’s important to note that the exports and imports of each of these countries can be influenced by a range of factors, including domestic and global economic conditions, trade agreements, and government policies. Nevertheless, these countries play an important role in the global economy and their exports and imports are closely watched by businesses and governments around the world.
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There are many challenges of doing business in Asia, including:
Different languages and cultures: Asia is a vast and diverse continent with many different languages and cultures. This can make it difficult to understand the local market and to communicate effectively with local partners and customers.
Different business practices: Asia also has different business practices, which can be difficult to adapt to. For example, in some countries, it is important to build relationships with key decision-makers before doing business.
Different regulations: Asia also has different regulations, which can make it difficult to comply with local laws and regulations. For example, in some countries, there are restrictions on foreign investment.
Competition from local businesses: Asia is a very competitive market, with many local businesses competing with foreign companies. This can make it difficult to establish a successful business in Asia.
There are a number of ways to overcome these challenges, including:
Hire local staff: One way to overcome the challenge of different languages and cultures is to hire local staff. This will help you to understand the local market and to communicate effectively with local partners and customers.
Learn about local business practices: Another way to overcome the challenge of different business practices is to learn about local business practices. This will help you to adapt to the local market and to do business effectively in Asia.
Get legal advice: It is important to get legal advice before doing business in Asia. This will help you to understand the local regulations and to comply with local laws and regulations.
Partner with a local business: Partnering with a local business is a good way to overcome the challenge of competition from local businesses. This will help you to establish a successful business in Asia.
There are also a number of latest solutions that can help you to overcome the challenges of doing business in Asia, including:
Cloud-based solutions: Cloud-based solutions can help you to overcome the challenge of different languages and cultures. This is because cloud-based solutions can be accessed from anywhere in the world.
Social media: Social media can help you to overcome the challenge of different business practices. This is because social media can help you to build relationships with key decision-makers and to communicate effectively with local partners and customers.
Mobile apps: Mobile apps can help you to overcome the challenge of different regulations. This is because mobile apps can help you to comply with local laws and regulations.
Artificial intelligence: Artificial intelligence can help you to overcome the challenge of competition from local businesses. This is because artificial intelligence can help you to identify new opportunities and to develop new products and services.
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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets
Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.
This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Why are bond yields rising?
There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.
Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.
What are the risks of rising bond yields?
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.
For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.
For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.
What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?
There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.
Investors
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.
Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.
Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.
Businesses
Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.
Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.
Conclusion
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.
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19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control
Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.
Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.
However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.
However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.
The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.
Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.
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14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government
With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.
The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.
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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.
It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.
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20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit
A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.
Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.
Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.
12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority
30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production
Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.
23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension
Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.
An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?
The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.
It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.
Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.
If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.
9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events
Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.
By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.
25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely
Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.
Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.
The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.
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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.
Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.
this Parliament is a disgrace
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019
Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.
All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.
Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.
20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October
Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.
There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.
The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.
The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.
17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less
There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products
market researcher Kantar
5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September
UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.
If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.
There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.
4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced
Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.
Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.
4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?
The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.
Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.
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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.
The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.
1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them
The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.
1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012
Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.
5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham
JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.
It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.
In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.
1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.
NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.
NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.
It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.
21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!
The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!
Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.
The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one. The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.
Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU. The time for compromise has come to an end.
The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.
The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.
15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos
Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.
The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.
The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.
29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein
MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.
The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.
22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes
The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.
Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.
Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.
Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.
Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.
21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops
Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.
21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU
Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.
He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.
19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again
Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.
If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.
The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.
14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week
Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.
The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.
Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.
Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!
13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit
Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.
Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.
The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal
European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.
Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.
It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.
Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.
Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.
UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.
If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.
15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016
The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.
UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.
27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal
Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry
German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.
The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.
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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.
14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster
According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.
A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.
A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.
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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit
David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.
29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows
Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that bankinginsurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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