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The Looming Shadow: Navigating the Labyrinth of Geopolitical Risks in 2024
The world in 2023 stands at a crossroads. As the shadow of a global pandemic recedes, new anxieties grip the international landscape. Tensions simmer in familiar hotspots, while emerging threats whisper on the horizon. In this labyrinth of uncertainties, one question burns bright: what will be the greatest geopolitical risk in 2024?
Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but anticipating and preparing for potential storms is the essence of responsible leadership. While pinpointing a singular “greatest” risk might be an oversimplification, we can examine four contenders each capable of casting a long, disruptive shadow in 2024:
1. The Dragon and the Tiger: Escalating Tensions in the Taiwan Strait:
The Taiwan Strait, a narrow waterway separating mainland China and the self-governing island of Taiwan, has long been a tinderbox of geopolitical tension. China, viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province, refuses to renounce the use of force in achieving reunification. Taiwan, on the other hand, maintains robust democratic institutions and enjoys strong international support, particularly from the United States.
In 2024, several factors could elevate the risk of confrontation in the Taiwan Strait:
Increased Chinese military assertiveness: Beijing’s recent actions, like frequent incursions into Taiwanese airspace and military drills simulating island invasion, signal a growing determination to assert its dominance.
Taiwan’s presidential elections: Scheduled for January 2024, the elections could see the victory of a pro-independence candidate, further inflaming Chinese grievances.
Miscalculations and accidents: Unforeseen incidents, either military mishaps or deliberate provocations, could spiral into an unintended conflict with devastating consequences.
The potential ramifications of a Taiwan Strait conflict are immense. A full-scale war could trigger a massive humanitarian crisis, disrupt global supply chains, and plunge the world into a new era of Cold War-esque tensions.
2. The Ukrainian Quagmire: War’s Long Shadow and Spillover Risks:
The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to cast a long, dark shadow over Europe and the global order. Even if a resolution were reached in 2024, the war’s legacy will extend far beyond the battlefield. Here are some potential avenues for risk:
Protracted conflict and instability: Even a ceasefire wouldn’t guarantee lasting peace. A simmering conflict in Ukraine could destabilise the region, create a humanitarian crisis, and strain international relations.
Spillover effects into neighbouring countries: The war could trigger unrest or refugee crises in bordering nations like Moldova, Belarus, and the Baltic states.
Weapons proliferation and escalation: The possibility of Russia or Ukraine resorting to unconventional weapons or dragging other powers into the conflict cannot be entirely discounted.
The war in Ukraine has already disrupted the global food and energy markets, impacting economies worldwide. A further escalation could exacerbate these vulnerabilities, leading to economic hardship and political instability in vulnerable regions.
3. Iran’s Nuclear Tightrope: Unveiling the Bomb or Stepping Back from the Brink?
Iran’s nuclear programme remains a contentious issue, raising concerns about its potential for weapons development and regional instability. In 2024, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear ambitions could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape:
Collapse of the JCPOA: The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, currently hangs by a thread. Its collapse could pave the way for Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities,raising the specter of a military strike from Israel or the United States.
Internal political dynamics: The political climate in Iran could influence its approach to the nuclear issue. Hardliners gaining ascendancy could increase the risk of confrontation, while moderates gaining ground could offer an opportunity for renewed diplomacy.
Regional proxy conflicts: Iran’s support for Shia militias across the Middle East could exacerbate existing tensions and potentially trigger wider regional conflicts.
A nuclear-armed Iran could reshape the Middle East power dynamics, posing a significant threat to Israel and its allies. It could also trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, further destabilising an already volatile part of the world.
4. Climate Change and the Looming Resource Wars:
While traditionally considered a non-traditional security threat, climate change is increasingly recognised as a potential driver of geopolitical instability. In 2024, its impact could become more pronounced through:
Resource scarcity and competition: Water scarcity, food insecurity, and energy shortages driven by climate change could exacerbate existing resource competition, potentially leading to conflicts over crucial resources.
Mass migration and displacement: Climate-induced migration could strain social and political systems in receiving countries, potentially triggering unrest and xenophobia.
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The Dangers to Businesses and People from Eurozone Bank Stress and Loan Defaults: An Expert Perspective
The Eurozone banking sector is facing a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and increased loan defaults. These factors are putting stress on banks’ balance sheets and making it more difficult for them to lend to businesses and consumers. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences for businesses and people across the Eurozone.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on Businesses
Businesses rely on banks to provide them with the credit they need to operate and grow. When banks are under stress, they are more likely to tighten lending standards and raise interest rates. This can make it difficult for businesses to get the loans they need to invest in new equipment, hire new employees, and expand their operations. As a result, businesses may be forced to cut back on their spending, which can lead to slower economic growth and job losses.
In addition, businesses that are unable to obtain loans from banks may turn to riskier forms of financing, such as borrowing from high-interest lenders or taking on more debt. This can increase their financial risk and make them more vulnerable to economic downturns.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on People
People also rely on banks for a variety of financial services, such as checking and savings accounts, mortgages, and auto loans. When banks are under stress, they may reduce their hours of operation, close branches, and increase fees. This can make it more difficult for people to access the financial services they need.
In addition, if banks are forced to raise interest rates, this will make it more expensive for people to borrow money. This could lead to an increase in household debt and make it more difficult for people to make ends meet.
The Dangers of Loan Defaults
Loan defaults are a major concern for banks because they can significantly erode their capital. When a borrower defaults on a loan, the bank loses the money it lent out, and it may also have to pay legal fees and other expenses to collect the debt. This can quickly eat into the bank’s capital, which is the money it needs to operate and withstand financial shocks.
If banks are not able to maintain adequate capital levels, they may be forced to reduce their lending activities or even go bankrupt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, as it would make it even more difficult for businesses and consumers to get the credit they need.
Policy Options to Address Eurozone Bank Stress
There are a number of policy options that could be taken to address Eurozone bank stress and reduce the risk of loan defaults. These include:
Providing additional regulatory capital relief to banks: This would help banks to build up their capital buffers and make them more resilient to financial shocks.
Encouraging banks to securitise their loans: Securitisation is a process of pooling loans together and selling them to investors as securities. This can help banks to reduce their exposure to individual borrowers and spread out their risk.
Implementing stricter lending standards: This would help to ensure that banks are only lending to borrowers who are able to repay their loans.
Improving the quality of credit data: This would help banks to make better lending decisions and reduce the risk of loan defaults.
Conclusion
Eurozone bank stress and loan defaults pose a significant threat to businesses and people across the Eurozone. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences. Policymakers need to take action to address these challenges and reduce the risk of a financial crisis.
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Why the UK Cannot Complete Major Infrastructure Projects on Time and Within Budget
The UK has a long history of struggling to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This has led to a number of high-profile delays and cost overruns, as well as a growing public frustration with the way in which infrastructure projects are managed.
There are a number of factors that contribute to the UK’s poor record on infrastructure delivery. These include:
A lack of long-term planning and strategic thinking. The UK government has often been accused of adopting a short-term approach to infrastructure planning, which has led to a lack of consistency and continuity.This has made it difficult to develop a long-term pipeline of projects that can be delivered efficiently.
A complex and fragmented procurement process. The UK’s procurement process is often complex and time-consuming,which can lead to delays and cost overruns. This is partly due to the fact that there is a lack of standardisation and consistency across different government departments and agencies.
A lack of expertise in managing large infrastructure projects. There is a shortage of skilled project managers in the UK, which can make it difficult to find the right people to lead and manage complex projects. This is compounded by the fact that many project managers in the UK are not properly trained or experienced.
A lack of political will to make tough decisions. The UK government has often been unwilling to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This is partly due to a fear of political backlash, but it is also due to a lack of understanding of the importance of infrastructure investment.
These factors have all contributed to a culture of risk aversion within the UK’s infrastructure industry. This has led to a focus on minimising risks rather than maximising value for money. As a result, projects are often over-engineered and over-specified, which leads to delays and cost overruns.
How to improve the UK’s record on infrastructure delivery
There are a number of things that the UK government can do to improve its record on infrastructure delivery. These include:
Develop a long-term infrastructure plan. The UK government needs to develop a long-term infrastructure plan that sets out the country’s infrastructure needs for the next 20 to 30 years. This plan should be based on a clear understanding of the country’s economic and social needs, and it should be regularly reviewed and updated.
Streamline the procurement process. The UK government needs to streamline the procurement process to make it more efficient and transparent.This could be done by standardising procurement procedures across different government departments and agencies, and by making more use of technology.
Invest in training and skills development. The UK government needs to invest in training and skills development to ensure that there is a sufficient supply of skilled project managers. This could be done by supporting professional development programs and by providing funding for apprenticeships and other training initiatives.
Make tough decisions. The UK government needs to be willing to make the tough decisions that are necessary to deliver major infrastructure projects on time and within budget. This includes making decisions about project scope, risks, and procurement.
Focus on value for money. The UK government needs to focus on value for money when delivering infrastructure projects. This means ensuring that projects are delivered to the highest possible standard, while also ensuring that they are delivered on time and within budget.
Improve project management practices. The UK government needs to improve project management practices across the public sector. This could be done by providing training and support to project managers, and by developing and implementing project management standards.
Increase investment in infrastructure. The UK government needs to increase investment in infrastructure. This will help to address the country’s infrastructure deficit and create jobs.
Publicly disclose project details. The UK government needs to publicly disclose all project details, including costs, risks, and timelines. This will help to improve transparency and accountability.
Appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister. The UK government needs to appoint a dedicated infrastructure minister who will be responsible for overseeing the delivery of all major infrastructure projects.
By taking these steps, the UK government can improve its record on infrastructure delivery and ensure that future projects are delivered on time and within budget.
In addition to the above, I would also like to add that the UK government needs to adopt a more collaborative approach to infrastructure delivery. This means working more closely with the private sector, as well as with local communities. By working together, the government and the private sector can share risks and expertise, and develop innovative solutions to infrastructure challenges.
The UK government also needs to be more open to using new technologies, such as modular construction and 3D printing. These technologies can help to reduce the time and cost of delivering infrastructure projects.
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EU leaders last month stressed the need for the bloc to have strategic autonomy after the coronavirus crisis.
The European Union and its companies need to diversify their supply chains to reduce their reliance on individual countries but that does not mean bringing all production back to Europe
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With the coronavirus pandemic many have now realised that there has been an over reliance on Asia for the supply of key supplies. Austrian EU diplomats think this means more manufacturing and production of key supplies should be brought home. Whilst this does not mean all Asian supplies from Asia should cease it does mean more manufacturing is required in your own country to build supply resilience.
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One of the key areas that Executive Grapevine covers is risk management. Risk management is an essential aspect of business leadership, as it involves identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks that can impact the success of your organization. From cyber threats to supply chain disruptions, there are a variety of risks that can pose a threat to your business. By staying informed about the latest risks and trends, you can take proactive steps to mitigate these risks and protect your organisation.
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One of the benefits of Executive Grapevine is that it provides a forum for business leaders to connect and share their experiences. By learning from other executives, you can gain valuable insights and perspectives that can help you navigate the challenges of business leadership. Executive Grapevine also provides opportunities for networking and collaboration, which can be valuable for building relationships and partnerships that can drive growth.
Another benefit of Executive Grapevine is that it provides a range of resources for business leaders, including articles, webinars, podcasts, and more. These resources are designed to provide actionable insights and advice that you can apply to your own organisation. Whether you’re looking to improve your risk management strategies or foster a culture of innovation, Executive Grapevine offers resources that can help you achieve your goals.
In addition to the resources provided by Executive Grapevine, BusinessRiskTV.com also offers a range of other tools and resources for business leaders. These include risk management software, business continuity planning tools, and more. By leveraging these tools and resources, you can streamline your risk management processes and improve the resilience of your organisation.
Overall, Executive Grapevine on BusinessRiskTV.com is a valuable resource for business leaders who are looking to navigate the risks and challenges of business leadership. By staying informed and proactive, you can mitigate risks and overcome challenges to drive your business forward. Whether you’re leading a small startup or a multinational corporation, Executive Grapevine offers insights and strategies that can help you achieve your goals.
In today’s rapidly changing business landscape, effective risk management, leadership, and innovation are essential to the success of any organisation. By leveraging the resources and insights provided by Executive Grapevine on BusinessRiskTV.com, business leaders can stay ahead of the curve and position their organisations for success.
Whether you’re looking to improve your risk management strategies, foster a culture of innovation, or connect with other business leaders, Executive Grapevine on BusinessRiskTV.com offers a wealth of resources and opportunities. By staying informed and proactive, you can navigate the risks and challenges of business leadership and drive your organisation forward.
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Incorporating all stakeholders interests in business decision making with BusinessRisk.com
Do you want financial success in terms on capital value increase and dividend increases? Are you prepared to sacrifice the interests of other stakeholders to achieve this? Is long term business sustainability less important than short term financial success?
You can be very financially successful and still fail. When financial success is pursued at the expense of other stakeholders interest you have a recipe for catastrophic failure eventually.
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Shareholders and customers are stakeholders in the business performance not just senior management team. Pushing for bonuses at the expense of other stakeholders interests has always resulted in catastrophic losses.
The financial crisis in 2008 is the most recent near systemic collapse due to poor senior management team business decisions. The senior management teams were very good at creating extra value for themselves which will have long term benefits but their customers and shareholders in the financial crisis of 2008 have lost big time and many have yet to recover lost business value.
The sad fact is that shareholders or rather their representatives pension and investment fund managers have accepted and fuelled the poor decision making of senior management teams by being part of the problem. They have misrepresented big business owners long terms interests by allow senior management teams to get away with bad business decision making that only interests the senior management teams not shareholders or customers.
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Senior management teams are not taking enterprise risk management methodology onboard. Too often they pay lip service to the principles and practices of enterprise risk management.
Poor risk management cultures continue to dominate
Poor compliance standards are being accepted and even encouraged
Systemically poor risk management practices flourish on basis of a level playing field. They are doing it to make money so so should we
Enterprise risk management practices and processes need to be improved to prevent future catastrophic systemic collapses in business.
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Governments and self regulating bodies need to drive business improvements with carrots and sticks. Personal accountability at board level is necessary before good enterprise risk management practices will be embedded. If business leaders cannot see the wood from the trees than they need to be forced to open their eyes.
Short term greed is prevalent within our corporate structures. If our oversight by governments and professional bodies do not pull their their fingers out then economic and social catastrophes lie ahead in the next decade.
There is more to business than short term profit maximisation. However too many business leaders do not hold to this view. Their greed will take us closer to the cliff edge if they are not forcefully stopped.
Do our business leaders and politicians really understand corporate risks and how this will impact on society?
Do they care? Too often the answer must be no. So they must be made to care by other people in our capitalist society. Capitalism is the best system on which to base our future but it should not be left to greedy people to rape the good that comes from capitalism.
Profit maximising corporations are not the flagships of capitalism. There is more to business life than profit. Reconciling business priorities is not easy. It is made easier with enterprise risk management principles and practices. Develop a more successful stakeholder management strategy for your business with BusinessRiskTV.
Creating business value is not just about creating more profit but we can make you more profitable too
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Pick up risk management tips. Read risk management articles and view videos. Network with top risk management thought leaders locally and globally to solve your risk management problems quicker and cheaper.
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Emerging trends in business management debated risk analysed and risk controls reviewed. What emerging trends in business management must you know about today? Consumers and business decision makers have easy access to business intelligence so business leaders need to use business intelligence more in risk management strategy setting to grow faster. Due to the rapidly changing business environment and increased nationalism it may be better to have shorter supply chains. Alternatively restructure your supply chains to embrace new cost saving opportunities in supply.
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UK economic forecast next 5 years. Global business and economy experts opinions analysis and review of best guess for UK economy. Network with top business leaders and risk management professionals to help you make better more informed business decisions.
Businesses in the UK will grow over the next 5 years. Will your business be one of them. Not all businesses in UK will grow. The UK business leaders which take the right decisions to protect and grow their business will grow their business regardless of the UK economic future.
What of the future? Economic growth not contraction. The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. Can your business exploit the opportunities for growth that are ahead?
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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?
The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.
Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:
Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.
It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.
In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.
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Our innovative approach to business growth will help your business grow faster regardless of the UK economic outlook. Some businesses always grow and there is no reason it could not be your business.
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Sure there is uncertainty about the UKs economic future. When has there been certainty? The key is to find ways to grow whatever the economic future or at least protect your business so it is resilient and survives.
There are undeniable challenges ahead for UK business leaders. Identify them assess their impact on your business and set a risk management plan and strategy for business resilience.
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We are looking for people who have something to say about country or industry risks. In addition if you want to author an article on specific risk that applies to all countries and industries we may publish it too.
Many people have experiences or thoughts which could provide a risk insight. BusinessRiskTV embraces thought leaders and innovative thinkers. Help others to see why your ideas are worth considering.
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BusinessRiskTV Risk Management Events online help for business leaders to grow business faster with less uncertainty
Did you want to understand the threats and opportunities you are or will face?
BusinessRiskTV Risk Events will help inform your risk management decision making. Make better decisions with less uncertainty.
Join us at free risk management events. BusinessRiskTV free online Risk Events are aimed at business leaders. Our risk management experts will help business leaders overcome barriers to success.
Come to our online risk events armed with any questions specific to your business needs as you like. Pick up free business risk management advice wherever you are in the world with a WiFi signal.
To confirm your interest and receive alerts to future Risk Events subscribe to BusinessRiskTV for free today.
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BusinessRiskTV was created by Keith Lewis as a hub for business leaders to connect with business management experts and other business leaders to solve business problems quicker.
With BusinessRiskTV you can pick up free business risk management tips advice and support. Our risk management tools and facilities provide various ways to gain support when making important business decisions wherever you are in the world.
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How to make the UK currency work in your business favour
USA president Donald Trump plans to add a 10 percent tariff to another 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on 1st September. Without a trade deal the global economy will continue to suffer not just China and USA economys. Part of the trade war rhetoric from USA is that China is manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low to gain a competitive advantage.
A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more competitive or to put it another way a weaker yuan makes it cheaper to buy more Chinese goods with foreign currencies.
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Here in the UK the low value of the pound is held up as a bad thing for the UK economy. The airwaves are full of woe about the negative effects of the low value of the pound on the UK. In the USA president Trump moans about the Federal Reserve keeping the value of the dollar too high with too high interest rates. In addition the USA Treasury classed China as a currency manipulator as it claims China manipulates its currency to keep it lower than warranted.
The USA Treasury says China manipulates its currency to keep it lower to improve its international balance of trade and gain unfair competitive advantage in international trade. USA is taking steps in a trade war to lower the value of the dollar and push up value of the yuan.
Why does president Trump and China want lower currency valuation and UK whinges and bellyaches over low value of pound?
Most of the FTSE 100 companies in the UK benefit from a low value in the pound. Their profits are in dollars and when converted to the pound these companies receive a currency benefit to business performance. Investors including the UKs pension funds receive a low value in currency beneficial online casino bonuses at bonushitlist.
Furthermore the UK is benefiting from more income from more tourists coming to the UK. UK tourism money from overseas visitors will help boost UK economy. Business leaders in UK tourism industry should be going all out to attract visitors to their business. The low value of the pound is giving these UK tourism related businesses a competitive advantage.
Without having to enter a trade war or manipulate its currency the UK has been dealt cards that includes low value of the pound. Instead of encouraging UK business leaders of SMEs and large firms to export export export the UK media and political opportunists talk down UK economy. The result is that the UK is failing to taking advantage of the low value of the pound.
Scores of central banks around the world have recently lowered interest rates to cope with the global economic slowdown. The UK can use the low value of the pound to trade its way out of the global economic slowdown. It could that is if business leaders focused on the real threats and opportunities from the low value of the pound.
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Businessleaders must keep calm and carry on regardless of what risks materialise. Your risk management planning should encompass proactive and reactive actions to manage risk efficiently.
Make sure you protect and utilise your people processes premises and suppliers cost efficiently. Develop processes to seize and develop your business opportunities.
Risk Management is not just about maintaining business as usual. It is a risk based approach to ensuring you make the most from your business assets.
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Introducing the BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Club
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Key benefits of BusinessRiskTV Risk Club and reasons to join and contribute today
Free to join. There is no cost to join the club. Once you join you also have the option of contributing to BusinessRiskTV to better market promote and advertise your business. In addition you will have increased access to discussions workshops and executive training to better protect your business. You are in control of what to do next after you join the club for free.
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The BusinessRiskTV Club is carefully expanding its reach to help business leaders to better protect and grow their own businesses and careers.
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Read Keith Lewis Testimonials as to the quality of his work. This gives some background as to the quality of the business risk management business intelligence being gathered and distributed.
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We are in it for the long term and look forward to working with members for sustainable mutual benefit. If you want to stop your membership you can at any time. We are looking forward to you working with us to help your business grow faster.
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After you join the club you can just use it as a simple way to be kept up to date on emerging and developing corporate risks impacting on your business objectives.
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I do not know anything about online business marketing and development? That is one of the great strengths about being in the Business Risk Management Club. You simply join now and then we will email you to find out what you need to do to grow your business faster. We will then go away and start your marketing and promotion campaign. We will design post and update your contributions to promote your business. Our team of enterprise risk experts and business risk advisers to help protect and grow your business faster.
How fast will my business grow? It is impossible to say. It depends on how well we can work together to get the most from your existing business development tools and initiatives. The potential is there for massive gains but the value of your membership fee could be worthless if we fail to work well together. That is why our members should always diversify our marketing options to maximise the likelihood of increasing sales. We will guide you on the diversification options based on our discussions on what you offer and when. You are not putting all your business development eggs in one basket but the affordable membership fee expands the likelihood of your business growing faster.
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My business marketplace is not in UK so can I still join and contribute to BusinessRiskTV? YES! The Club is open to any business selling legal and morally acceptable products and services. Legal is legal but morally acceptable comes down to our own opinion as to what is morally acceptable. Areas include Europe USA Canada Latin America Australia and Asia Pacific.
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The Damaging Consequences of Overprinting Money
Overprinting money is the act of a government or central bank creating new currency units without a corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services. This can lead to a number of negative consequences for the global economy and businesses, including:
Inflation:Â Inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates:Â In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Overprinting money can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead to an increase in speculation and volatility in asset prices. This can make it difficult for businesses to raise capital and operate effectively.
Reduced trust in government: When governments resort to overprinting money to finance their spending, it can lead to a loss of trust in the government. This can make it more difficult for governments to raise taxes and borrow money in the future.
The negative consequences of overprinting money are not limited to the global economy. Businesses can also suffer a number of negative consequences, including:
Increased costs:Â When inflation rises, businesses may have to increase their prices in order to cover their costs. This can lead to a decrease in demand for their products or services.
Decreased profits:Â If inflation outpaces revenue growth, businesses may see their profits decrease. This can make it difficult for businesses to invest and grow.
Increased risk:Â When the value of the currency is unstable, businesses face increased risk. This is because they may not be able to predict how much their costs or revenues will increase in the future. This can make it difficult for businesses to make long-term plans.
Loss of market share:Â If businesses are unable to keep up with inflation, they may lose market share to competitors who are able to pass on higher costs to consumers.
The negative consequences of overprinting money can be severe and far-reaching. It is important for governments and businesses to be aware of these risks and to take steps to mitigate them.
What are the negative effects of reducing money supply?
Increasing credit crunch risk due to lack of money supply or unaffordable borrowing costs
Reducing the money supply can also have negative consequences for the economy. This is because it can lead to a decrease in economic growth, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in asset prices.
When the money supply is reduced, it becomes more expensive for businesses to borrow money. This can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in unemployment, as businesses are less likely to hire new workers when it is more expensive to borrow money.
In addition, a decrease in the money supply can lead to a decrease in asset prices eg house prices, stock market shares, etc. This is because when there is less money in circulation, people are less likely to bid up the prices of assets. This can lead to losses for investors who own assets, such as stocks and property.
What are the disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy?
The disadvantages of excess money in circulation in an economy include:
Inflation:Â As mentioned earlier, inflation is a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. When there is too much money in circulation, it can lead to inflation as people are able to afford to pay more for goods and services. This can make it difficult for businesses to operate as their costs increase, and it can also lead to a decrease in the value of savings.
Decreased value of currency: When there is too much money in circulation, the value of the currency can decrease. This is because the currency becomes less scarce, and people are less willing to hold onto it. This can make it difficult for businesses to trade internationally, and it can also lead to a decrease in investment.
Increased interest rates:Â In order to combat inflation, central banks may raise interest rates. This can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a decrease in investment and economic growth.
Instability in financial markets: Excess money in circulation can lead to instability in financial markets. This is because it can lead
Understanding Economic Indicators For Effective Risk Management
Economic indicators are statistics that provide information about a country’s economic performance and outlook. They are used by businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the most important economic indicators. It measures the value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders. A growing GDP is generally seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a decline in GDP can indicate a recession.
Another important economic indicator is the unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. A low unemployment rate is usually seen as a sign of a strong economy, while a high unemployment rate can indicate weakness.
Inflation is another important economic indicator. It measures the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. High inflation can indicate that an economy is overheating, while low inflation can indicate weakness.
Interest rates are also an important economic indicator. Central banks use interest rates to control inflation and stabilise the economy. Higher interest rates can slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, while lower interest rates can stimulate growth by making borrowing cheaper.
Economic indicators can also be divided into leading, lagging, and coincident indicators. Leading indicators tend to change before the economy as a whole changes, and can provide early warning signs of an impending recession or recovery. Lagging indicators, on the other hand, tend to change after the economy as a whole changes, and can confirm the onset of a recession or recovery. Coincident indicators tend to change with the economy as a whole and tend to reflect the current state of the economy.
Effective risk management involves staying informed about economic indicators, understanding their significance, and using them to make informed decisions. By monitoring economic indicators, businesses and investors can anticipate changes in the economy and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, Economic indicators are important tools for understanding the current state and future prospects of an economy. By monitoring key indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, businesses and investors can make informed decisions and effectively manage risk.
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UK economic growth 2018 started more slowly than end of 2017. The UK economy news is normally weaker at the beginning of the calendar year. Most of the UKs economic growth comes as the calendar year progresses.
Latest economic news for UK and global economy
Governor of the Bank of England Mr Carney
Mr Mark Carney the head of the Bank of England says poor UK economic activity at the beginning of the calendar year 2018 was due to the weather and not UK economic climate.
In addition Mr Carney reports that all slack in the UK economy has been taken up and this is likely to push up UK prices and UK inflation.
With very high levels of employment low levels of unemployment and a million plus job vacancies unfilled it is more likely that wages will increase faster. UK employers will need to pay more to attract candidates and to keep existing staff.
Mr Carney paints a rosier future for the UK economy in 2018 with downside risks including global international trade war. UK interest rates more likely to rise later this year and this should boost value of the UK pound.
Not just shops! Just shopping on the High Street is no longer enough for the consumer nor the High Street. We have to be a bit smarter more innovative and put into action a more radical approach to delivering what people want from the High Street now.
The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less
Britains High Streets have a bright future if entrepreneurs business leaders and local planners are a bit smarter
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The High Street will become a bigger part of the community not less if we work at building a better future for the High Street in UK.
Retail therapy is still important to many but the High Street can do so much more for the local community
Retail experts have a role to play on the High Street in the UK. They need to be a bit more imaginative creative and innovative to deliver a High Street fit for the future. Selling stuff is no longer enough. Entrepreneurial retailers will sell experiences night and day.
The notice of the Death of the High Street is premature!
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The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Financial services industry news headlines risk analysis and financial reports
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
less emotional
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Mortgage advice
Financial and investment advice
Insurance advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
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New Automotive Industry Entrants and Cross Sector Collaboration Will Bring New Threats and Opportunities
26th June 2020 Amazon Robot Delivery plus Amazon Autonomous Self Driving Vehicles To Buy In Showroom?
Amazon is one of the most successful businesses at developing innovative business growth strategy. Last year Amazon invested half a billion dollars in self driving car startup Aurora Innovation Inc. This year it looks like Amazon is continuing its investment in the car sector.
Amazon has bought robotics and autonomous vehicle company Zoox. Are they just beefing up their knowledge and business intelligence for robotic self delivery or would you buy an Amazon self driving autonomous car from a showroom instead of a Tesla. Amazons purchase of Zoox is in the region of 3 billion dollars.
31st October 2019 PSA Group the owner of Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler Agree 50 Billion Dollar Merger
The merger will create the fourth largest automotive manufacturer in the world. The merger is needed strategically due to the significant investment required by both firms to keep up with the competition. Both firms need to invest heavily in electric cars and driverless technology to be ready now never mind the future sustainability.
28th August 2019 Toyota and Suzuki Collaborating On Self Driving Car Technology
Toyota and Suzuki announce they are working together on self driving car technology.
Toyota will take a 4.9 percent share of Suzuki Motor Corp and Suzuki will invest in Toyota
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22nd August 2019 Audi Daimler Ford and BMW Developing Alliance To Build Advanced Driving Assistance and Autonomous Systems According German Wirtschaftswoche Article.
The automotive manufacturers are collaborating on autonomous driving and parking systems.
The 4th industrial revolution is about to turn the automotive industry upside down rip up traditional business models and will come out the other side better and stronger but very different.
Many new features in cars and other vehicles that took a decade to normalise across the industry will need to be incorporated in a few short years. The automotive industry as always evolved but a revolution is under way.
Those who don’t keep up will be squashed to death!
Those that get on the bus will see a very different road ahead.
Those that resist change will cease to exist, and those that embrace change may or may not benefit from the changes
The pace of change within components that do or could go into vehicles is fast but the pace in which the automotive industry is changing is breath-taking, and its accelerating!
The world’s auto industry will have more customers demands to meet, but what are they going to deliver and when? Automated vehicles powered by renewable energy is nothing new. How quickly can society keep up with what is possible on the roads? Will automotive industry take to the skies! Will we get into autonomous vehicles AV and literally fly to work whilst playing computer games! Will the automobile get swallowed up whole by Google Apple and Sony?
The greatest challenge for the car industry is very similar to the greatest challenge for all gadgets gizmos plant machinery and equipment particularly those presently powered by carbon based power sources. Its battery technology that needs to change.
Tesla is leading the way not in cars but in batteries. Tesla batteries are being used to store power from the National Grid in the UK and then being fed back into the UK national electricity network when needed.
Decarbonisation is one factor driving the need to boost battery power for longer on remote items of plant and equipment like cars. However battery technology is key for all parts of global society for different reasons. In less well developed economies battery technology improvement will create new markets domestically and international trade development. In well developed economies like UK battery technology improvements will totally change what we manufacture and how we manufacture it.
Dyson cars will lock horns with Tesla cars but both will invest more in batteries than car design.
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3rd October 2018 GM and Honda New Project
General Motors and Honda have announced a partnership to develop and build an autonomous multi use vehicle together.
13th June 2018 VW Fined 1 Billion Euros By German Prosecutors
Volkswagen has been fined by German prosecutors for diesel emissions scandal. VW has already been fined by other countries for cheating the tests for diesel emissions. VW has agreed to pay more than 4 billion dollars to resolve criminal and civil penalties for installing illegal software in diesel engines to cheat USA anti pollution tests.
15th March 2018 Auto Parts Maker New Strategic Direction
Automotive parts supplier Magna International Inc will invest $200 million in ride-hailing firm Lyft. Their new partnership will develop and manufacture self driving cars.
20th February 2018 Ford Aims To Set Up German Bank To Offset Any Brexit Risk
Ford Credit Europe will remain headquartered in Britain and the new bank plans will not result in job losses or significant changes to where employees are based.
UK business forecasts and reports from BusinessRiskTV.com
CBI does not speak for all UK business leaders.
Confederation of British Industry CBI Is Politically Motivated and Industry Biased Reports
Absolutely no one can state with absolute certainty what the impact of Brexit will be on UK economy. Most of the articles on the impact of Brexit are politically biased Leave or Remain as there is still a fight for the result of the real Brexit vote.
Many reports including the ones from the CBI are also industry biased. The industry most likely though not guaranteed to suffer if and when the UK leaves the European Union EU will be the financial services industry. This particular industry could actually also be the main industry benefactor from Brexit too but a lot will depend on the end deal with the EU.
Most business leaders in the UK can not control Brexit but they can control the impact of Brexit on their own business
Do not let the CBI the media or your mother dictate how you react to Brexit should it eventually happen. Deal with what you know for certain. The value of the UK pound has fallen against a basket of foreign currencies because the financial markets do not like uncertainty and it is highly uncertain if there will be a Brexit, and if it happens what kind of Brexit it will be. The UK certainly has a massive opportunity right now, never mind March 2019 or later to sell more overseas.
UK business leaders need to lay the foundations for a better future whether Brexit happens or not
Seize the day! The devaluation of the UK pound will remain as it is or devalue further over the next few years unless Brexit is stopped. This devaluation negates most of the trade tariffs that could be imposed by EU or are imposed by other non EU countries already.
Don’t wait for tariff free agreements from wherever they might come. Tariff free agreements could become the cherry on top of the cake for UK international traders. Tariff free agreements could also boost the value of the pound and there will be no net benefit from the signing of tariff free agreement in terms of the cost of your products or services to overseas buyers from your business in UK.
UK business leaders will look back on this period of UK economic history and think they missed a massive business opportunity to sell more overseas
This is the time to sell more overseas not when free trade agreements have been signed if they ever get signed.
Economic uncertainty has brought a massive opportunity as well as threat to UK businesses. Many UK business manufacturers have already exploited this perceived UK economy weakness to export more. If you want to concentrate your focus on the UK domestic market alone, then we wish you well.
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Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
Small business owners often make financial mistakes that can have serious consequences for the success of their company. Here are some of the most common financial mistakes made by small business owners, and advice on how to prevent them:
Not keeping accurate financial records: Without accurate financial records, it can be difficult for small business owners to make informed decisions about the financial health of their company. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should establish a system for keeping accurate financial records, such as using accounting software or hiring a bookkeeper.
Not having a budget: A budget is an essential tool for small business owners, as it helps them to plan for expenses and manage cash flow. Without a budget, small business owners may overspend and find themselves in financial trouble. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should create a budget and stick to it.
Not having enough working capital: Working capital is the amount of money a business has available to cover its short-term expenses. Without enough working capital, small business owners may struggle to pay bills and meet other financial obligations. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should maintain a healthy level of working capital by managing expenses and seeking financing when necessary.
Not having adequate insurance: Insurance is an important tool for small business owners, as it helps protect their company against potential financial losses. Without adequate insurance, small business owners may find themselves facing financial ruin in the event of a disaster or other unexpected event. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should review their insurance needs and purchase the appropriate policies.
Not diversifying investments: Small business owners often invest a significant portion of their assets in their own company, which can be risky. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should diversify their investments to spread risk.
Not seeking professional advice: Small business owners often make financial decisions without seeking the advice of a professional. This can lead to costly mistakes. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should seek the advice of a financial advisor or accountant before making important financial decisions.
By avoiding these common financial mistakes, small business owners can increase the chances of success for their company.
Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
More small business risk management articles and videos
Avoiding Financial Pitfalls: Top Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Prevent Them
Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
Steering Clear of Financial Disaster: A Guide for Small Business Owners on Common Mistakes and Prevention Strategies
Financial Survival for Small Business Owners: Common Mistakes to Avoid and How to Protect Your Business
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19th March 2020 Fishing Is Symbolic Of Taking Back Control
Many people perhaps most people in the city of London would happily sacrifice fishing rights to maintain financial services rights in Brexit negotiations.
Economically the fishing industry produces are 3 percent of UK economic output. Financial services produces many time that. The scales of economic sensibility suggest that it would be better for the UK economically to support the city of London.
However this is slightly misguided. The UK produces so little from fishing industry because of European Union quotas decimating the number of UK fishing boats. The UK could increase growth from fishing by increasing more boats in the fishing industry.
However the UK fishing industry will never overpower the economic sense of supporting financial services over the fishing industry.
The UK government must not submit to pressures to allow the same access to UK fishing areas. UK fishing industry should be rewarded for its support of Brexit. There can be ways of increasing income even with tariffs on UK fish products. Countries like Norway and Iceland can make it work.
Socially and democratically even with some economic detriment the UK government must support the UK fishing industry. Yes EU boats must have rights to fish in UK waters but rights to fish for UK fishing boats must be significantly increased at the end of 2020. Democracy is more important than economic prosperity.
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Brexit Guide Brexit Business Risk Assessment Analysis News and Opinions
Read our latest analysis on the consequences of Brexit. What is your Brexit risk assessment? How do you seize the opportunities a Brexit will present to your business? How do you mitigate the threats from Brexit? Only a careful, positive risk management approach will ensure that Brexit will work well for everybody in the UK.
Brexit Risk Assessment for Small Medium Sized Businesses in UK. Come back for more Brexit news opinions debates and business risk reviews. You can receive Brexit Breaking News Reports and Features on your smartphone tablet pc or TV.
14th February 2020 With The Departure Of The Chancellor The Last Significant Remainer Forced Out Of UK Government
With the UK Chancellor resignation yesterday Boris Johnson has purged his government of the last significant block on a no deal Brexit. The European Union EU must now know it must do a fair deal with the UK or face no deal Brexit at the end of 2020.
The UK is now closer to a no deal Brexit than it ever has been.
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With the next UK budget in March expected to open the spending taps to new infrastructure and an uplift in government investment the UK will be better prepared for a no deal Brexit than it ever has.
It is likely that the UK will face face short term economic bumps from no deal Brexit but the length of the disruption will depend on how well the UK plans for its future outside the EU.
Prepare your business for all eventualities with our Brexit Marketplace.
20th December 2019 German Economy Saved From Recession By Brexit
A clear programme for progress on Brexit has helped Germany avoid a recession according to Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in remarks published on Friday.
Although there could yet be a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 if the EU and UK do not agree a deal during transition period at least German businesses know with certainty that the UK is leaving the European Union.
Germany still faces a potential trade war with USA as part of European Union. The UK will look to strike a free trade deal with USA that would avoid any trade war between USA and EU.
12th December 2019 Exit Poll Suggest Conservative Party Majority For Brexit Majority
30th October 2019 Brexit Not Resolved Yet Vauxhall Vans Commit To UK Van Production
Vauxhall announces further commitment to automotive production in UK regardless of Brexit outcome. Next generation of Vivaro vans will be built in Luton.
23rd October 2019 Still Most Likely That Brexit Deal Will Pass But After A Brexit Extension
Ex Tory MPs who lost the whip would not be able to stand as Tory candidates at the next General Election if Boris Johnson gets a General Election now. The exTory MPs that blocked Brexit on 31st October 2019 with their Surrender Act presumably will want the Whip reinstated if they want to present themselves as a Conservative Party candidate at the next General Election.
An extension to Brexit is unavoidable now due to the application of the Surrender Act. Before it was brought into force in days by MPs intent on blocking Brexit it would have been possible though not guaranteed that Brexit could have been done on the 31st October 2019. Surely Boris Johnson would not take such MPs into a General Election with the Conservative Party?
The most likely outcome at this stage is for the UK parliament to approve Britains Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. To enable such a legal position to pass it will need more time. An extension is inevitable but it will either be a technical extension to get the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament or an extension to end of January 2020 to enable a General Election to take place.
It is unlikely that the Tory rebels and Labour Remainer MPs will succeed in their attempt to block delayed Brexit. The UK will then hold a General Election.
Ideally the Labour Party leadership probably favour the Conservative Party taking the UK out of the European Union EU and then then suffering the inevitable short term business lifestyle and economy disruption. Labour could then capitalise on that with their policies that would otherwise have been blocked by EU rules and moderate the Brexit achieved by Conservative Party by opting in for a softer Brexit. However we do not live in an ideal world so the Labour Party will probably need to fight the next imminent General Election with a deliberately fuddled Brexit Policy in the hope that its other policies will win over the UK electorate in sufficient numbers to win power.
If the UK gets a General Election the current best bet is that the Conservative Party will run a minority government with a handful of new Brexit Party MPs who have won previously safe Labour Leave voting seats. This will probably mean a no deal Brexit or Brexit based on the deal agreed by Boris Johnson with EU.
9th October 2019 Do Not Let Your Business Be Paralysed By Political Events
Political events can impact negatively or positively on your business. However procrastinating because of Brexit uncertainty or trade war between USA and China and Europe is not good for your business.
By taking the right precautions your business can still make progress towards your business objectives and even speed up successful attainment of objectives.
25th September 2019 Supreme Court Judgement Makes Extension To Brexit Date and General Election In November or December 2019 More Likely
Although not the motivation of the Supreme Court judges the result is that a new Brexit deal before end of October is now impossible. There is no incentive for the European Union EU to make any significant changes until after an election or a referendum.
Although Boris Johnson has said he will not ask for an extension to Brexit he will. He will explain he has done everything possible to exit the EU at end of October. However he will say correctly that the Remainer MPs in UK parliament have to use a Scottish judge word stymied any renegoitation with EU.
The Supreme Court judges judgement has triggered the starting pistil to a UK General Election before the end of 2019 sooner rather than later. Before the judgement there was a slim chance of a new Brexit deal before end of October. Now the only chance is no chance. The door has closed not because of their legal decision but because they were asked to make a decision.
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The Remainer MPs will get their wish of an extension before the election but at the cost that the General Election will be fought on the basis of the People v The Parliament.
Around three quarters of MPs in the UK parliament are Remainer MPs unwilling to take the UK out of the European Union despite the vote of the vote in 2016 to leave.
this Parliament is a disgrace
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told MPs that current UK parliament is a dead parliament and will is too cowardly to call an election UK Parliament 25th September 2019
Although it will be close it is more likely that Leavers will beat Remainers in the General Election. Whether they will do so in sufficient numbers to make UK parliament governable again is very much in doubt. What is certain is that the UK will now reap the whirlwind of the most vitriolic election campaign ever experienced in UK.
All that we can really hope for is that there is a clear winner before the end of the year as an extension of the current impasse will damage the UK economy.
Perhaps the only good thing to come out the Brexit impasse is that with each day the UK is better prepared for a no deal Brexit should the UK vote for Brexit in the coming General Election. Whether the UK leaves or remains the UK will come out of this impasse for the better economically. How the UK will come out of the impasse socially and culturally will not be known until we look back in 10 years time.
20th September 2019 Next Crucial Period Of Brexit Is Mid October
Assuming the Supreme Court realise that courts should not be meddling with political decisions next week then the UK and Europe face a nervous run up to mid October.
There is increasingly positive mood music coming out of Europe about the prospect of doing a Brexit deal with the UK. It is likely that the Brexit deal will be one that kicks the most difficult parts of the deal towards the end of the decision making process like the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The question from the UKs point of view is will the hardline no deal Brexiteers agree to bend on the deal and will the MPs in the Labour party who have heavy Brexit leaning constituents vote for whatever new deal comes back from the new Brexit negotiations.
The Eurozone is struggling to cope with the global economic downturn on top of its historic issues falling the financial crisis. Of greatest concern is the likely recession in Germany dragging the rest of Eurozone economy down with it.
The UK should leave on the 31st October 2019. The key players in the Brexit negotiations are being pushed into a deal from opposite directions. It has never been truer that both the European Union and the UK need a deal. If the UK parliament does not vote for the new Brexit deal they will reap the wrath they have created.
17th September 2019 Claims That Consumers In UK Are Stockpiling Essential Products Are Found Less
There is no evidence that Britons worried about the possibility of disorderly departure from the European Union EU on 31st October are stockpiling essential products
market researcher Kantar
5th September 2019 Next Key Date On Brexit Is Monday 9th September
UK government has let through bill to stop no deal Brexit. Next Monday the UK government will try again to successfully ask for General Election that will largely be based on Brexit issue.
If the UK government does not successfully bid for a General Election then the Brexit debate will once again lurch out of control in ways that are unclear. However if the UK government successfully receive a General Election on Monday then it will happen on 15th October. The winner will determine if there will be a Brexit or not.
There is a General Election coming. When is uncertain.
4th September 2019 Impact On UK Economy Of No Deal Brexit Reduced
Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England the UKs central bank which decides on interest rates tells MPs on Treasury Select Committee for UK lawmakers that GDP impact of Brexit has been reduced.
Mark Carney was speaking at todays Treasury Select Committee public meeting.
4th September 2019 Will The UK Have A General Election Before The End Of October 2019?
The current UK Prime Minister wants a General Election on 14th October 2019. He may be prevented from having one by current MPs.
Tomorrow or Friday may be the crucial day on defining whether the UK Prime Minister will be granted a General Election before the end of October 2019.
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The UK Prime Minister will lose the new bill debate today aimed at preventing no deal Brexit. He will try again tomorrow but tomorrow (or Friday) will have lower bar to pass to enable a General Election to happen before the end of October 2019.
The UK will have a General Election before the end of the year but whether it happens before end of October should be decided this week.
1st August 2019 UK VAT Registered Companies Will Be Given A Registration Number In Next Two weeks That Allows EU Customs Authorities To Identify Them
The admin paperwork to continue trading with EU in event of no deal Brexit is called an Economic Operator Registration and Identification EORI number.
UK chancellor Sajid Javid automatic enrolment of VAT registered businesses will help ease the flow of goods at border points and support businesses to trade and grow in event of no deal Brexit.
1st August 2019 Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index PMI For Manufacturing Firms In July Fell To Lowest Level Since 2012
Many economists in UK say the UKs drop off of manufacturing activity is down to Brexit uncertainty. However eurozone manufacturers drop off in production and indeed global manufacturing production drop off is not down to Brexit uncertainty.
5th July 2019 Jaguar Land Rover JLR Is Investing Hundreds Of Millions Of Pounds To Build A Range Of Electric Vehicles In Castle Bromwich Birmingham
JLR are making plans for the future whether Brexit happens or not. Whether Britain no deal Brexits or leaves with a deal or does not leave European Union EU will not affect many automotive manufacturers strategic decisions to stay in UK.
It is perfectly right for car industry to lobby UK government for the outcome it prefers. However the automotive industry is perfectly robust enough to take on all risk factors to survive and prosper.
In January JLR announced that its new battery making facilities would be located in the Midlands. The new plant will be most technologically advanced in the UK according to JLR.
1st July 2019 NTT Ltd Opens For Business In London At Height Of Brexit Crisis
Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation NTT Corporation is one of Japans largest telecom businesses. It has launched its international focused subsidiary NTT Limited and picked London as its global headquarters.
NTT Limited is a merger of NTT Communications Dimension Data and NTT Security into a single business based in London.
NTT Corporation president and CEO Jun Sawada said launching NTT Ltds HQ in London shows its commitment to the UK remains extremely strong.
It demonstrates that Britain will remain a tech leader regardless of whether the UK remains or leaves the European Union EU.
21st May 2019 EU Would Rather Have The UK Pissing Into Tent Now!
The biggest change from the the results of the European Union EU is that the rest of the EU will no longer put up with the UK pissing out of the tent. They will become resigned to and prefer the UK to leave the EU an piss into the tent!
Until the EU elections 2019 UK political leaders thought they could pick and choose when it leaves the EU. Now the rest of the EU leaders will be thinking they do not need such an unruly member.
The UK is unlikely to get an extension beyond end of October 2019 even if it wants one. The EU will get little benefit from amending the deal already negotiated with the UK. The UK is closest to leaving the EU without a deal than at any time including immediately after the EU Referendum in 2016.
Back in 2016 the UK had more choices. Now the UK needs to leave without a deal at end of October or revoke article 50 and remain in the EU. The time for compromise has come to an end.
The UK parliament should vote on these two options immediately it returns after the summer break. The parliament can then spend time putting the vote into action.
The MPs will then face the public at the next General Election and have to justify whichever way they voted.
15th April 2019 Investment In UK The Highest In The World Regardless Of Brexit Chaos
Big 4 accountancy firm EY has reported that following its survey it found that Britain is the top place to invest in the world for the first time since EY started surveying investment market 10 years ago.
The reason investment has hit a record high according to EY is the English language is the language of business and the UK has a highly skilled workforce together with expanding technology base.
The low value of the UK pound has also made UK business cheap to invest in for overseas businesses keen to take advantage of undervalued UK businesses.
29th March 2019 On The Day The UK Should Be Leaving The European Union EU The Mother Of All Parliaments Says No Non Nein
MPs reject Theresa Mays EU withdrawal agreement by 344 votes to 286 a majority of 58. The UK is facing either a no deal Brexit on the 12th April or a long extension to Article 50 which will include the UK voting in EU elections in May.
The Prime Minister and the UK government seem to be holding out hope that the deal on the table with the EU will get still get through before the 12th April. How this would happen is highly uncertain.
22nd March 2019 No Deal Brexit Most Likely Outcome Of All Most Unlikely Outcomes
The UK is entirely fragmented politically. Each fragment has hurried off to respective camps and are digging in instead of looking for compromise.
Theresa May seems to have grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory after blaming UK MPs for Brexit logjam. Almost anything is now possible as the fragments of the UKs political community are resisting any coming together.
Mays Brexit deal could get through in a 3rd Meaningful Vote before the and of next week or the new deadline in April
The UK Prime Minister may do what she has said all along which is take the UK out of European Union EU on 29th March with no deal Brexit
UK parliament takes control over the Brexit process and before the EUs new deadline apply for and get a very long extension to Article 50 giving it time to put together a newer softer Brexit and or bring about a 2nd referendum on leaving the EU.
Many now believe Mrs May will take the UK out with a no deal Brexit next week but whether she will be allowed to do that by the UK parliament remains to be seen.
Brexit uncertainty has never been higher but next week it will continue to increase not reduce.
21st March 2019 Next Says No Deal Brexit Would Bring Lower Prices In Shops
Retailer Next says lower trade tariffs under no deal Brexit could save it 15 million pounds and allow Next to cut prices for shoppers in UK.
21st March 2019 No Deal Brexit Would Significantly Harm European Union EU
Barclays bank Chairman John McFarlane says a no deal Brexit would significantly hurt the European Union economy and a deal on financial services between Britain and the EU is likely whatever form Brexit takes.
He expects that trade would continue between the financial sector in London and the EU after Brexit.
19th March 2019 Theresa Mays Brexit Deal More Likely After Speaker Of House Of Commons Intervenes Into The Brexit Process Again
Yesterdays spanner in the Brexit process works by the Speaker of the House Of Commons has made it more likely that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal will somehow be approved. Where there is a will there is a way.
If this is the case then the UK economy will be boosted. The boost will come from private investment and massive public spending Brexit dividend promised by UK Chancellor. The downside risk is that the boost to UK economy will also accelerate UK interest rate rises.
The Brexiteers need to fall in behind the current Brexit deal or suffer no Brexit or softer Brexit.
14th March 2019 Third Meaningful Vote Expected Within A Week
Theresa May will try third time to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament. She is hoping to win over more Brexiteers on basis that they if they do not back her Brexit deal they will endure at best a long delay on getting Brexit or not get Brexit at all.
The UK government will at the very least need to ask the EU for a short delay on Brexit as there is not enough time to get Brexit through assuming Mays deal does get approval in the next week.
Last night an updated motion to reject a no deal Brexit under any circumstances was passed by 321 to 278 a majority of 43. Whilst not legally binding it is clear that parliament will find a way to prevent no deal Brexit ever happening.
Brexiteers realise they now face the likelihood of exiting the European Union EU via Mays Brexit deal on the table or softer Brexit like Norway Option or no Brexit. Which way will they jump in next week!
13th March 2019 UK Government Announces Tariffs On Imports Post No Deal Brexit
Most UK imports by value will not attract a tariff in the event of a no deal Brexit. Tariffs would protect some industries including farm produce. Such a change in UK imports is likely to increase the competitiveness of non European Union imports compared to EU imports though most EU imports would also be tariff free.
Tariffs on cars imported to UK would attract a 10 percent tariff though car parts would be tariff free.
The UK government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
12th March 2019 Theresa May Says She Has Legally Binding Changes To Her Brexit Deal
European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker warned if the deal was voted down there was no third chance to change a deal that could be agreed by both parties.
Hard line Brexiteers will not agree to anything short of no deal Brexit. Hard line Remainers will not agree to anything short of another referendum. It looks likely that the Second Meaningful Vote on the Brexit deal on the table will fall by less of a margin but how much of a margin is unclear.
It is clear that short term risks to UK economy will be lessened by agreeing the Brexit deal currently on the table
It is clear that the risk of the UK being trapped in the Backstop has lessened by the revised Brexit deal agreed with the European Union
What is unclear is the long term ability for the UK to finally leave the European Union fully.
Taking a balanced risk view of the short to long term the UK parliament should fulfil the decision of the British people to leave the European Union on the revised Brexit Deal. Should the UK legislators fail to vote to approve the Brexit deal the UK will be thrown into a crisis of government politics and business.
Business leaders will not know whether the UK will ever leave the European Union or whether it will end leaving with no deal. There may be one more Third Meaningful Vote before the end of March 2019. This is the most likely outcome of the developments this week. What the outcome of a Third Meaningful Vote will be is anybodies guess! However it will be incredibly close on whether the revised Brexit deal will eventually be voted through by the UK parliament.
UK MPs should remember that the best deals involve a win win for both parties not a lose lose win lose or lose win for the European Union and UK.
If the revised Brexit deal is not voted through and Brext with no deal is taken off the table then there must be a General Election in UK to revise the make up of the UK parliament. Then the new parliament must work on a revised Brexit deal. To revisit the Referendum before the last Referendum result has been implemented would create greater social and political damage which would continue for longer. Not only is it likely to result in a call for a third Referendum result but it would lead to another Referendum on Scotland leaving the UK.
All of these options would create greater chaos for business and economy for years. The only option which will protect short to medium and perhaps long term business environment is to accept the Brexit deal currently on the table.
15th February 2019 Retail Sales Jump More Than At Any Time Since December 2016
The Office for National Statistics ONS reports the amount of goods sold rose by 4.2 percent in January year on year the biggest annual rise since December 2016.
UK consumers show that record employment levels and rising standard of living will keep them spending regardless of Brexit. Wages continue to outstrip inflation indeed as inflation rate slows and wages increase faster the UK standard of living is accelerating.
27th December 2018 French Constriction Group Shows Confidence In UK Economy Post Brexit Deal or No Deal
Current Gatwick owners Global Infrastructure Partners GIP will sell a 50.01 percent stake to Vinci Airports. Vinci Airports has over 40 airports globally across Europe Asia and the Americas.
Gatwick is already the UKs second biggest airport and the 8th busiest airport in Europe by passenger numbers. However Vinci Airports will need to get significantly more than 3 billion pounds out of Gatwick purchase before it can start to turn extra value out of the investment. Where will it come from if Brexit crashes the UK economy?
26th November 2018 Brexit Plan B Most Likely End Destination For UK EU
The Sun newspaper is reporting behind the scenes discussions at UK government level to agree an EU UK Plan B when Plan A fails to get approval in the UK parliament.
Norway EFTA Plus deal most likely end result of Brexit negotiations by March 2019?
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Plan B is for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association EFTA. The Sun says government Secretaries on Remain and Leave side of the argument Michael Gove and Amber Rudd are trying to set up the UK joining EFTA temporarily enroute to eventual full Brexit.
Such a plan is likely to get through the UK parliament with with help of scores of Labour MPs at the expense of Conservative party unity.
Brexiteers in the Tory party are unlikely to vote for EFTA.
Would enough Labour MPs back an EFT Plan B deal to make it work if the EU agreed to enter such a Plan B?
The EU says there is no other deal it is prepared to sign.
Would Germany and France really face up to a no deal Brexit after appeals within UK for General Election and second referendum fail if there was a viable Plan B EFTA deal on table proposed by UK?
Would the existing EFTA members let the UK in enroute out of the EU?
Would an EFTA deal result in the formal split of both the Labour party and Conservative party in UK?
Would the UK left and right politicians come together in a new UK party occupying the centre ground to become a viable third party in UK politics?
25th November 2018 EU27 Endorsed Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future EU UK relations following Brexit In March 2019
EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UKs withdrawal and future relations. The EU27 say that deal agreed by the remaining 27 European Union EU countries is the only deal that is and will be on the table. Future relationship includes
Relationship to based on free trade without tariffs on either side
Continued cooperation on national security
End to free movement
The rubber stamping of the deal took less than 40 minutes at the meeting of EU27 leaders. However 20 months of negotiations is now at an end according to EU27 leaders and UK.
The agreement has yet to be agreed by the UK Parliament. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker said anyone in Britain who thought the EU27 bloc will offer improved terms if MPs rejected the deal would be disappointed.
The UK Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in early December. If the deal fails to get through the UK parliament it is likely that the UK Prime Minister will resign and then all bets are off. Possibilities could include
UK General Election where membership of the EU will be a critical element of the decision though it is not known what the Labour party in UK will have in its manifesto in such an event so how could voters choose which party to vote for. Last General Election 85 percent of UK voters voted for partys which wanted a Brexit.
Another Referendum on membership of the EU but what would be on the ballot. More than one option? Deal or no deal? Deal or Remain part of EU?
Another Brexit deal negotiation with EU on basis of UK parliament voted down first deal. However the EU27 say there is no other Brexit deal except no deal.
No politician in UK parliament or who has left parliament or any political commentator knows for definite what will happen if the UK parliament does not back the EU deal on the table. However most say that the EU deal will not get UK parliament approval ever.
If a General Election in UK or another Referendum did happen that did not have a clear cut decision what would happen?
If another Referendum was to switch to Remain in EU what happens next a third Referendum best of three?
In either of the the above voting processes what damage would UK society and economy suffer? One UK MP was killed during the last Referendum and many people were threatened with their lives.
The least damaging route in short term is for the UK parliament to back the EU UK deal on the table. Whether that is in the long term interests is not clear. The only thing that is certain is Brexit uncertainty is reaching its peak.
19th October 2018 View Of Brexit From German Industry
German industry association BDI has warned that both German and British companies are staring into an economic abyss if there is a no deal Brexit.
The remaining EU27 countries export more to the UK than any other country. More than to China or USA.
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Germany exported 84 billion euros worth of goods to the UK in 2017.
14th October 2018 No Deal Brexit Would Not Be Disaster
According to UK industry leading CEO a no deal Brexit would not be a disaster for the UK economically.
A standard free trade deal of the type agreed between Canada and the EU could cause EU economic growth loss of 0.8 percent.
A soft Brexit with the UK out of the customs union but retaining access to the single market and agreeing to abide by EU rules would imply almost zero cost for the EU as a whole IMF Report.
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9th July 2018 Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary Resign Over Brexit
David Davis Brexit Secretary and Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary resign from UK government over the Brexit policy decisions taken by Prime Minister Teresa May.
29th June 2018 Exports Goods and Services At Record High and Trade Gap Narrows
Trade figures released by UK government revealed that in the 12 months to March 2018 UK exports were at an all time high.
EU countries represent around 40 percent of all exports from UK.
Research from Barclays Corporate Banking found that around two thirds of consumers in India and China and around half of consumers in the UAE were prepared to pay more for goods made in the UK because they perceive the quality as higher.
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The trade deficit with the world continued to narrow to 80 billion pounds which is the narrowest UK trade deficit since 2012.
13th June 2018 Global Tech Companies Are Confident In UK Economy
Tech company Salesforce have voted in the UK with their 2.5 billion dollars of their money by announcing a massive investment in the UK over next 5 years. It clearly thinks it can grow further in UK and it could not do that unless the UK economy is strong.
Amazon is to create another 2500 jobs in the UK bringing total workforce in UK to 27500. Google Apple Snapchat and other global tech companies continue to invest in the UK economy.
11th June 2018 Where In The World Got The Highest Foreign Investment in 2017?
Despite Brexit the UK is still the place most overseas investors want to invest their money compared to rest of Europe.
23rd April 2018 – Financial Services Increasingly Confident In Brexit
The British government and senior finance executives said they are increasingly confident Europe will offer financial companies generous market access after Brexit, boosting London’s hopes of retaining its status as a top global financial centre.
Many in the City Of London now believe the remaining European Union EU members will go for easy access to financial market in London based on increased equivalence to prevent disruption to business anywhere in EU.
4th April 2018 – Peugeot Plans New UK Van Production In Luton
Vauxhall plant in Luton chosen by PSA Group to manufacture a planned new van. This demonstrates confidence in UK of a major automotive maker post Brexit.
19th March 2018 – UK and European Union EU Agree Terms For Brexit Transition To UK’s Withdrawal From EU
Brexit negotiators Michel Barnier and David David announce they have agreed term for a transition period in a major breakthrough “decisive step”.
The transition period will run from 29th March 2019 to December 2020 and may lead to the orderly withdrawal of the UK from EU.
In addition, there was also an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens in the EU.
EU member countries have still to sign-off the agreement on the transition period, perhaps at an EU summit this week. If the EU members agree, then the negotiators will move on to discussions on a permanent future relationship agreement by August 2018 with a view to Brexit in March 2019.
The financial markets liked what they heard and the pound jumped in value.
27th February 2018 Small Medium-Sized SME Factories Sales Expectations Near 3 Year High
Sales expectations of SME factories in UK are near 3-year high due to strong global economy growth and low value of the pound.
National Manufacturing Barometer survey has revealed manufacturing to be the fastest growing sector of Britain’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.
The survey also revealed that more than half of SME manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery over the next 6 months. SME manufacturers in UK are more confident in their prospects in 2018 than they were in 2017.
The National Manufacturing Barometer surveyed 320 companies in January 2018
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26th February 2018 Two Labour MPs Discuss Brexit Negotiations
17th January 2018 Deutsche Bank Only Moving Hundreds Jobs Out UK Not Thousands Post Brexit
Deutsche Bank is headquartered in Germany had has told reporters that it will not need to move thousands of UK jobs to the continent post-Brexit. Stefan Hoops, head of Deutsche Bank’s capital market division in Germany explained that they would need to move fewer staff than many have said in the past. One executive previously said 4,000 staff would need to move but the numbers would actually be in the hundreds.
Last week Deutsche Bank Chief Executive was reported as saying that initially several hundred jobs would be created in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris but that is not the same as moving jobs from London.
16th January 2018 Bank of England Thinks Free Trade Deal With EU Including Financial Services Post Brexit Is Possible
It may take three years or more, but contrary to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, it is possible if the remaining EU27 are prepared to agree such a free trade deal with UK.
Sam Woods, the Bank of England’s deputy governor in charge of Prudential Regulation Authority PRA says a three period to agree a free-trade agreement including financial services could happen because unlike other countries seeking such a free-trade deal, the UK’s financial services are already aligned in terms of financial services rules and supervision.
Sam Woods comments came during his appearance in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
8th January 2018 City Of London Says Brexit Job Loss Fears May Have Been Exaggerated
The City Of London EU envoy, Jeremy Browne, has been reported as saying that bankinginsurance and asset management job losses to the European Union (EU) may not be as severe as suggested by many including the UK’s ex-Chancellor and now editor of Evening Standard.
Most people were shocked, but that doesn’t mean the implementation of the Brexit vote will be bad for business.
The UK may yet not leave the European Union EU. Great forces will try hard to stop the democratic vote of the people being fully implemented. The people may even change their minds. Anything is possible.
When anything is possible there is increased risk
Increased risk means increased opportunities for growth as well as increased threats.
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If businesses invest their time and energy in controlling the threats from a Brexit and seize the opportunities the UK will benefit from a Brexit. If business leaders can not change or do not have an innovative mindset a Brexit could be bad for the UK economy.
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How do business enterprise key decision makers use limited resources more cost effectively and more successfully ?
The pace of business change is increasing. How many people will drive for a living in the next decade? How many people will work in warehouses in next 10 years? What new risks are emerging for businesses when the dramatic changes of 4th Industrial Revolution expected soon are commonly in place?
Cyber crime or error is just one of the threats. How should a business like Amazon react if they are threatened by a cyber criminals who say they have the capability to shut down its warehouse and distribution drones! They presumably have not but even if it was never possible how would Amazons share price react? What will this mean for Amazon’s ability to borrow to invest in its future?
Like Amazon every business has its own most threatening risks and most exciting opportunities to grow.
Both the threats and the opportunities mean rapid changes are afoot for most businesses in the coming decade. With limited resources, what should your business focus on?
Do you have the time and energy to cope especially with information overload disrupting your ability to pick the right key risks to manage and which to accept or avoid.
Change does not mean bad disruption to the norms change can bring good disruption for your business
Are you innovative? Is your business innovative? Do you have people in your business who are innovative?
Sure you are! Yes it is! Yes you do! You may not have found the best way to harness a well of innovation in your business till now.
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Some corporate risks are mature and well known but how does YOUR business manage them in the most cost effective way? Other corporate risks are just emerging. Do you know which ones present the biggest threats and opportunities for your business?
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