Exploring preparation for a global recession with a businessrisktv.com
What happens to commodity prices in a recession
The coming global recession will slash demand for oil copper and the like. Prices for most commodities will fall. If the world falls into depression commodity prices will fall off a cliff including oil.
Some prices can rise temporarily as people seek a safe haven. People may flee to gold or a few commodities that they think will safe harbour their money during a recession. However a depression, which is more and more likely, causes most commodity prices to collapse.
June’s weaker demand for commodities signals that an economic global recession is coming closer.
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Global recession is necessary to stop runaway global inflation. The hard landing is the only option now available due to the lacklustre response to control inflation by Central banks and global national government.
Agricultural demand and energy demand is likely to keep rising during the autumn and winter and will sustain high commodity prices. This is likely to be aggravated by poor geopolitical decision-making by incompetent national leaders and global bodies like WHO, UN and WEF puppet masters and pied pippers particularly as it relates to food, water and energy. It is likely that another health crisis will emerge in the autumn winter and spring and this is likely to be managed in a restrictive way due to the propensity of these international bodies to take more and more health and economic risk management control. In addition, as demand falls due to rising inflation it can be combined with increased supply chain disruption imposed by recommended risk management action by international bodies that national governments adopt. Worse WHO wants overseeing overriding control of the next wave of the pandemic or next health pandemic.
Demand is likely to stay the same or slightly lower, but our leaders can change the supply up or down with their decisions. Reducing supply will push up prices.
Global stagflation is a certainty. When not if.
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Global commodity prices
Wheat and oil future prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures. Weaker commodity prices in June indicate we are transitioning to a global recession. Although commodity prices will fall, inflation will increase and stay high whilst growth turns to recession. For example there will be less demand for oil, oil prices will fall, but prices of goods and services will remain high.
Surviving global recession: how do you prepare for a recession
Businesses that can offer business discounts and consumer discounts are more likely to survive as more people become price conscious.
Businesses that supply essentials or luxury items at a discount offer more in the marketplace compared to those businesses who have let their own costs of being in business balloon and cannot offer deals and discounts.
Discount grocery and retail stores tend to have more footfall during a recession. Many supermarkets take advantage of their customers during the good times and suffer a loss of business and profitability when recessionary precious hit the consumers household budget.
People still die during recession! After the management of global risks over the last two years more people will die. businesses which cater for death are likely to perform strongly throughout a recession.
People turn to drink and drugs during a recession! Businesses providing alcohol and drugs will perform strongly during the coming recession.
You still have to pay your taxes! Accountants and tax advisors are likely to still perform well during the recession.
Everyone can afford a bit of lippy! Cosmetic businesses can perform well during a recession.
As for the rest of businesses, they must fully understand what’s important and what is not for their particular business model. Offering more value for money will become more important.
Global recession 2023
Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023
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Hopefully not all the effects of the coronavirus pandemic will ever be over. The pandemic has given the world a stop clock to look at life in business in other ways. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed to stop people dying but we have been given a once in a century opportunity to change for the better.
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We may actually need more than one vaccine
Covid19 should really morph into something less or more deadly to survive and prosper so wherever we are we are a long way from returning to normal.
Instead of returning to normal and life in business being forever harder it could be easier and better.
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It is looking more likely that our leaders want to get back to business as usual not Business 2.1. This is understandable in terms of the complexity of getting over the worst of the pandemic. However all disasters present opportunities to change to transform into a better version of life in business.
For example around 40 percent of people in UK are still working from home compared to prepandemic rate of around 12 percent. One effect of this is to increase cost of working in short term but could it mean reduced costs of working in long term. Was it really necessary for so many people to commute to an office to work?
If the new normal postpandemic was 20 percent working from home it would mean the rest would commute every day as if it was the school holidays. Imagine how much easier that would be for all workers speed of distribution and the environment.
However that would destroy the value of many office blocks and some investments. Many of the UKs biggest property funds are frozen stopping investors withdrawing funds through fear the funds would collapse. How do you value assets post pandemic if people totally change their way of working.
How will retail recover? Will the High Street ever recover? Most retail experts feel that the world of retail may have changed forever. The virus may have turbo charged what was changing anyway but retailers and property valuations have now changed dramatically if society has changed irreversibly.
Our pension funds are no longer based on assets that are the same value. Will the value recover? It will but it will recover by basing investments in underlying assets fit for the purpose of the future not the past.
We may create a vaccine or vaccines for Covid19 and any morphed versions thereof. However if we are determined the impact of the virus will never be over. In a good way!
Could business leaders:
Continue to offer takeaway services or do deliveries from their restaurants?
Manufacture different products in addition to their core business products?
Maintain and hold on to local suppliers instead of using overseas suppliers in diversification of supply chain lines?
Explore online sales development to be more profitable?
Hold on to cost cutting measures to grow profit?
So much good and bad will flow from the pandemic. It is important not to miss out on the good as well has mitigate the bad. What opportunities and threats are in front of you will depend on your industry and perhaps location.
Now is the time to take the best strategic risk management decisions to come out of the coronavirus pandemic stronger than when you went into it
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How do we improve on yesterday so that today and tomorrow is better and more cost effective. What is it that we have that is good?
What could be better?
Why is it not working now?
How are we going to change things?
When will we achieve enough is good enough?
Where do we need to act?
Who can help us move forward?
Striving for perfection is not our goal. Do not let perfection be the enemy of the good enough. Focus on making realistic changes for the better happen. Dreaming of a better world tomorrow does not make the real world good enough today.
Practical action to progressively improve the world we live in
Most people in 3rd world countries are not interested in woke words. They simply want to live better tomorrow than they did today. Most peoples 1st world problems could be alleviated with a holistic approach to good business management and lifestyle choices.
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Aspiration to live better wherever you live in the world can be fulfilled by solving all our problems together at once not by a piecemeal approach. Good words do not put food on the table or a roof over your head. Sodding your neighbour does not protect you from destroying everything you have built around you.
People can work together for common good
We do not need to be in the same country culture or place to work as a team to achieve what we want for ourselves. Getting what you want can help others to get what they want out of the investment of time.
Putting up trade barriers does not work for the builder of walls. Forcing people to be in your gang does not make progression towards goals fast enough. Seeing the mutual benefit at the end for all people on the bus does.
Our holistic approach to making decisions for the common good will be successful for all who lend support
If you put your shoulder to the wheel you can reap the rewards from the effort.
We are not looking for constant companions but do seek constant progress. Moving it forward a little everyday is better than big leaps now and again. We do not need to be beside you for every step but would like to be with you at the end of the journey. We can achieve more together than on our own.
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Coronavirus hits the global economy on both the supply and demand side BusinessRiskTV.com
Coronavirus threats to world economy. Coronavirus global economy impact. The coronavirus has not yet be officially acknowledged as a pandemic health risk. However it probably is already a pandemic health risk and is certainly a global economic pandemic spreading uncontrollably around world.
Although the world financial markets have had their worst time since the financial crisis in 2008 the actual impact of the coronavirus has yet to be felt and revealed. The financial markets are giving a glimpse into what is feared in future not what is happening now.
With just 36 cases in the UK it appears that the UK is relatively spared from the virus. The most worrying case out of the 36 is the one where the infected person has not been abroad and has not been in contact with anyone who has to his or her knowledge. Tracing the source is key to controlling and containing the spread of the coronavirus.
Many countries where the official numbers of coronavirus infection cases are so low is worrying
There are many countries where scepticism on figures inflates fear of a pandemic that may not be recoverable. China where the coronavirus originated from may have be slow to unveil the seriousness of the problem have been praised by World Health Organisation WHO for honest figures.
Some countries have different reasons to deliberately suppress news of an epidemic in the country. In addition there are countries which may not have the resources to identify the coronavirus. More worringly they also do not have the resources to stop the spread of the virus.
Other disasters in some parts of the world also have the potential to exasperate and accelerate the spread of the virus. What happens if the coronavirus infects refugees and economic migrants trying to escape to Europe via ItalyGreece Bulgaria and Spain. Germany not long ago took around one million of these people. If such numbers flowed again and they also had the coronavirus how much more quickly would the coronavirus spread throughout Europe? Exponentially fast!
Control of coronavirus COVID19 is unlikely especially as there is no vaccine
A vaccine by most estimates is unlikely to be identified until early 2021. Even when a vaccine has been found it then has to be manufactured in sufficient quantities to have a reduction in the spread of the virus never mind eliminated.
The coronavirus is likely to be with us until end of 2021 at the earliest never mind getting coronvirus spread under control this year.
Major sporting events like the Olympics this summer are unlikely to proceed. Whilst this creates obvious disappointment for the athletes supports and Japanese people it in one event creates massive economic loss for Japan Olympic sponsors and lots of products or services will not be sold if the Olympics is cancelled.
Businesses will face reduced performance at best and potentially even collapse
If you are not able to sell products or services how do you pay fixed costs never mind variable costs of being in business. Potentially fatal could be loss of the ability to pay your creditors who may close you down to try to get their money back.
Central banks around the world have yet to realise they have not recovered from the financial crisis in 2008. Their tools to tackle global recession including lowering interest rate and increasing quantitative easing QE are worn out. There is little manoeuvrability for central banks. In COVID19 terms central banks do not have very good vaccines left at their disposal to support economic growth.
Individual countries will undoubtedly fall into a recession due to the coronavirus COVID19
Countries like Italy already severely impacted by coronavirus were already teetering on the edge of recession. The coronavirus will push them over the edge. The northern part of Italy is the powerhouse of the Italian economy and much of it has already been shutdown. Can Italy really stop the spread which will make economic impact worse?
Even countries like USA can dramatically lose economic growth. Not all Americans have good access to healthcare services. If you cannot call upon your healthcare services to detect and help control the coronavirus spread then it could spread like wildfire in USA if it takes hold and it is close to taking hold now.
The coronavirus spread in poorer less developed countries is essentially unstoppable. How can parts of Middle EastAfricaAsia Central America and South America really contain spread of coronavirus. The how do you contain the spread from these areas to more wealthy parts of the world.
The economic impact is going to be so severe as it hits not just the supply side of the economy it cuts demand too
When disaster strikes businesses can stop supplying cause the risk event stops output abruptly. However the coronavirus dramatically cuts demand quickly too. People stop assembly in public in restaurants events bars concerts sporting events etc through fear of catching the coronavirus. They may start spending again when under control but we are looking at end of 2021 before this even has possibility of subsiding.
Other concerns include lack of scientific knowledge about coronavirus. The boffins do not know enough yet to be sure we will ever get this under control.
We do not know how long the virus can survive on surfaces when people cough or touch surfaces with contaminated hands.
We do not know if our normal ways of cleaning surfaces works on coronavirus.
There have been suggestions that people who have had coronavirus in recent months and recovered then contract virus again. Potentially not only will infected people not be immune in future but then may not be cured in first place or regenerate virus.
Many people across the world including the UK will now be thinking they have a mild illness or seasonal flu when in fact they have COVID19. When it can be contained you are tracing contacts to track down infection line to control risks. However when COVID19 is spreading unencumbered mildly infected people will be spreading virus unknowingly and then 80 percent infection across the UK and world starts to become realistic.
We do not know if the warmer weather will help the world to control the spread of the virus like it did with SARS or whether it will continue to spread.
We do not know if COVID19 will morph into something worse or morph into something less virulent.
Some estimates suggest that 80 percent of people in UK will contract the coronavirus COVID19 if it spreads uncontrollably in UK. The UK could well be on cusp of uncontrollable spread as the UK government gears up to act this week. On the positive side 80 percent of those who contract the virus only get mild manageable symptoms. On negative side a fatal rate of even 1 percent of UK population is still around half a million deaths.
One way some countries may manage the coronavirus risk is simply to let it spread across the whole country without stopping business activity or economic growth. If 80 percent have mild symptoms and 1 percent die what is their tolerance of risks. Will they chose economic slowdown or losing 1 percent of their population? This could mean the rest of the world suffer boomerang epidemics. What could make this less likely is that leaders can die of the virus just like their peasants!
Safety at work and managing health and safety of your workforce
Employers have a duty to take reasonable steps to protect their workers. This includes protection from exposure to coronvirus. This has obvious implications about travelling to coronavirus hotspots but also includes the coronavirus coming to your workplace. The coronavirus could change forever how we do business in future. If and when the spread of the coronavirus is brought under control we may find it more sensible to have less contact face to face and more online communication.
Ocado in UK who deliver to more wealthy customers have already announced a jump in the number of people ordering online for food and drink delivery to home. This is just one example of winners as well as losers from COVID19 outbreak.
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We are in the foothills of the coronavirus pandemic. Yes it is a pandemic despite WHOs caution. How you manage the risks to your business will have limitations but where you can control the risks you must start implement your business continuity plan now not when when a full blown pandemic is sweeping across the world.
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Global Risk Management Solutions on BusinessRiskTV.com
Businesses operate in a constantly changing world, where the risks faced can be unpredictable, complex, and varied. The potential impact of risks can range from reputational damage to financial loss, and in some cases, threaten the very existence of the business. To ensure sustainable growth and profitability, businesses need to have robust risk management strategies in place that are aligned with their overall objectives and risk appetite. This is where global risk management solutions come into play, providing businesses with the tools, insights, and expertise to manage risks effectively and proactively.
BusinessRiskTV.com is an online platform that provides a range of risk management solutions and services to businesses worldwide. With a network of risk management experts and thought leaders, BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources, including articles, videos, webinars, and tools, to help businesses understand, manage, and mitigate risks effectively. This article will explore some of the key global risk management solutions available on BusinessRiskTV.com and how they can help businesses navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape.
Enterprise Risk Management
Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a holistic approach to risk management that involves identifying, assessing, and managing risks across the entire organisation. ERM aims to create a risk-aware culture within the organisation, where risks are considered in all decision-making processes and integrated into the overall strategic planning process. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on ERM, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective ERM strategy.
One of the key benefits of ERM is that it provides a comprehensive view of the risks faced by the organisation, allowing businesses to prioritise and allocate resources effectively. By identifying and assessing risks across all areas of the business, including operations, finance, and reputation, businesses can develop a more holistic understanding of their risk profile and take a more proactive approach to risk management.
Business Continuity Management
Business continuity management (BCM) is the process of identifying and managing risks that could disrupt normal business operations. BCM aims to ensure that businesses can continue to operate in the event of a disruption, whether caused by a natural disaster, cyber-attack, or other unexpected event. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on BCM, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective BCM strategy.
One of the key benefits of BCM is that it can help businesses minimise the impact of a disruption on their operations and reputation. By developing a comprehensive business continuity plan, businesses can identify the critical functions and processes that must be maintained in the event of a disruption, as well as the steps needed to recover and resume normal operations. This can help businesses minimise the financial and reputational impact of a disruption, and ensure that they can continue to meet the needs of their customers and stakeholders.
Cyber Risk Management
Cyber risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and managing risks related to information security and technology. With the increasing reliance on technology in business operations, cyber risks have become a major concern for businesses worldwide. Cyber risks can include data breaches, ransomware attacks, and other forms of cybercrime that can result in financial loss, reputational damage, and legal liabilities. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on cyber risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective cyber risk management strategy.
One of the key benefits of cyber risk management is that it can help businesses protect their sensitive information and systems from cyber threats. By identifying and assessing cyber risks, businesses can implement appropriate security measures, such as firewalls, antivirus software, and employee training programs, to mitigate the risks. This can help businesses reduce the likelihood and impact of a cyber-attack, and ensure that their operations and reputation are protected.
Compliance and Regulatory Risk Management
Compliance and regulatory risk management involves identifying and managing risks related to compliance with laws, regulations, and industry standards. Compliance risks can arise from a variety of sources, including changes in legislation, non-compliance with industry standards, and breaches of contractual obligations. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on compliance and regulatory risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective compliance and regulatory risk management strategy.
One of the key benefits of compliance and regulatory risk management is that it can help businesses avoid legal liabilities and reputational damage. By ensuring that they comply with relevant laws, regulations, and industry standards, businesses can demonstrate their commitment to ethical and responsible business practices. This can help businesses build trust with their customers and stakeholders, and enhance their reputation in the market.
Supply Chain Risk Management
Supply chain risk management involves identifying and managing risks related to the supply chain, including risks related to suppliers, logistics, and transportation. Supply chain risks can include disruptions caused by natural disasters, political instability, and changes in regulations. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of resources on supply chain risk management, including articles, videos, and webinars, that can help businesses develop and implement an effective supply chain risk management strategy.
One of the key benefits of supply chain risk management is that it can help businesses minimise the impact of supply chain disruptions on their operations and reputation. By identifying and assessing supply chain risks, businesses can implement appropriate risk mitigation strategies, such as diversifying their supplier base, implementing contingency plans, and enhancing supply chain visibility. This can help businesses reduce the likelihood and impact of supply chain disruptions, and ensure that they can continue to meet the needs of their customers and stakeholders.
In today’s complex and dynamic business environment, managing risks effectively is essential for sustainable growth and profitability. BusinessRiskTV.com offers a range of global risk management solutions that can help businesses identify, assess, and manage risks across all areas of their operations. From enterprise risk management to supply chain risk management, BusinessRiskTV.com provides businesses with the tools, insights, and expertise they need to navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape.
By leveraging the resources available on BusinessRiskTV.com, businesses can develop and implement effective risk management strategies that are aligned with their overall objectives and risk appetite. This can help businesses protect their operations and reputation, avoid legal liabilities, and enhance their competitiveness in the market. In short, global risk management solutions available on BusinessRiskTV.com can help businesses navigate the complex and ever-changing risk landscape and achieve sustainable growth and profitability.
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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?
The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.
Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:
Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.
It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.
In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.
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Maximising Your Business Growth: Insider Strategies and Tactics from Industry Leaders
Maximising your business growth tips: sharing insider strategies and tactics from industry leaders to help you take your business to the next level.
Identify your target market.
Before you can start growing your business, you need to know who your target market is. This will help you tailor your products or services to meet the needs and wants of your ideal customer. To identify your target market, consider factors such as demographics, location, and interests.
Set clear goals and objectives.
In order to grow your business, you need to have a clear direction and plan in place. This means setting specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals and objectives. Having clear goals and objectives will help you stay focused and motivated as you work towards growing your business.
Invest in marketing and advertising.
Marketing and advertising are crucial to getting the word out about your business and attracting new customers. Consider investing in both traditional and digital marketing efforts, such as social media, email marketing, and content marketing.
Focus on customer satisfaction.
Happy customers are key to driving business growth. Make sure to prioritise customer satisfaction by providing high-quality products or services, responding to customer inquiries and complaints, and continuously seeking ways to improve the customer experience.
Diversify your revenue streams.
Diversifying your revenue streams can help protect your business from economic downturns and provide multiple sources of income. Consider offering new products or services, partnering with other businesses, or exploring alternative revenue streams such as licensing or franchising.
By following these insider strategies and tactics, you can take your business to new heights of growth and success. Remember to always keep your target market in mind, set clear goals and objectives, invest in marketing and advertising, focus on customer satisfaction, and diversify your revenue streams.
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The Threat of Rising Bond Yields in European and American Bond Markets
Bond yields are the interest rates that investors receive when they lend money to governments or corporations. Bond yields have been rising steadily in recent months, both in Europe and the United States. This is due to a number of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates and concerns about inflation.
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money.
This article will explore the threat of rising bond yields in European and American bond markets in more detail. It will also discuss some of the risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Why are bond yields rising?
There are a number of reasons why bond yields are rising in European and American bond markets. One reason is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can lead to a decrease in demand for bonds, which can cause bond yields to rise.
Another reason for rising bond yields is concerns about inflation. Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. When inflation is high, investors demand higher returns on their investments to compensate for the loss of purchasing power. This can lead to an increase in bond yields.
What are the risks of rising bond yields?
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses.
For investors, rising bond yields can lead to losses on existing bond holdings. When bond yields rise, the prices of existing bonds fall. This is because investors can buy new bonds with higher yields, which makes older bonds with lower yields less attractive.
For businesses, rising bond yields can make it more expensive to borrow money. Businesses often borrow money to finance growth and investment. When bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing money increases. This can make it more difficult for businesses to finance their growth and investment plans.
What can investors and businesses do to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields?
There are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields.
Investors
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds.
Diversification means investing in a variety of different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and property. By diversifying their portfolios, investors can reduce their overall risk.
Investing in shorter-term bonds can also help investors to protect themselves from rising bond yields. Shorter-term bonds have less interest rate risk than longer-term bonds. This is because shorter-term bonds are more likely to mature before interest rates rise significantly.
Businesses
Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
Hedging interest rate risk involves using financial instruments to offset the risk of changes in interest rates. There are a number of different hedging instruments available, such as interest rate swaps and options.
Borrowing money at fixed interest rates can also help businesses to protect themselves from rising bond yields. When businesses borrow money at fixed interest rates, they lock in the interest rate for the life of the loan. This protects them from the risk of rising interest rates during the term of the loan.
Conclusion
Rising bond yields can have a number of negative consequences for investors and businesses. However, there are a number of risk management actions that investors and businesses can take to protect themselves from this threat.
Investors can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by diversifying their portfolios and investing in shorter-term bonds. Businesses can protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields by hedging their interest rate risk and borrowing money at fixed interest rates.
I urge investors and business leaders to take risk management action to protect themselves from the threat of rising bond yields. By taking action now, you can minimise the potential impact of rising bond yields on your investments and your business.
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