How could the $220 trillion shadow banking gambling casino blow up your business prospects?
The Looming Shadow: Leveraged Shadow Banking and the 2024 Risk Horizon
As we peer into the economic crystal ball of 2024, one spectre looms large: the potential for a crisis borne from the murky depths of leveraged shadow banking. While whispers of this risk have swirled for years, the confluence of several factors – rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and an interconnected financial landscape – amplifies the potential for a shockwave to ripple through the global economy. As business leaders, navigating this uncharted territory requires an understanding of the threat and proactive measures to ensure our ships weather the storm.
Delving into the Shadows:
Shadow banking encompasses a vast network of non-traditional financial institutions operating outside the regulatory purview of the formal banking system. Think investment funds, hedge funds, money market funds, and other entities engaging in lending, credit extension, and other activities typically associated with banks. The key differentiator lies in their funding – they rely heavily on borrowed money (leverage) to amplify their investment capacity, amplifying potential returns, but also magnifying risk.
This reliance on leverage creates a precarious scenario. Rising interest rates, a reality in 2023, increased the cost of borrowing for shadow banks, squeezing their profit margins and potentially triggering a wave of defaults on their obligations. This domino effect could cascade through the financial system, impacting traditional banks reliant on shadow banking for liquidity and investment opportunities.
The Perfect Storm:
Beyond interest rates, several storm clouds gather on the horizon. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around resource-rich regions, could disrupt global supply chains and trigger commodity price volatility, further squeezing margins for shadow banks heavily invested in such assets. Additionally, the interconnectedness of the financial system means a crisis in one corner can rapidly spread, amplifying the overall impact.
The 2024 Risk Horizon:
While predicting the exact timing of a potential crisis is a fool’s errand, 2024 presents several worrying factors. The lagged effects of interest rate hikes could manifest, geopolitical flashpoints remain simmering, and the post-pandemic economic recovery has yet to be fully cemented. This confluence of risks creates a perfect storm for a shadow banking crisis, with potentially devastating consequences.
Protecting Your Business:
So, what can business leaders do to safeguard their organisations? Several proactive measures are key:
Strengthen Liquidity: Build robust cash reserves to weather potential disruptions in credit availability.
Diversify Funding Sources: Reduce reliance on shadow banking and diversify funding sources to traditional banks and alternative forms of financing.
Stress Test Scenarios: Run stress tests to understand your exposure to potential shadow banking-related shocks and identify vulnerabilities.
Reduce Leverage: Minimise dependence on borrowed capital to lessen the impact of rising interest rates.
Scenario Planning: Develop contingency plans for various crisis scenarios to ensure swift and decisive action when needed.
Beyond internal measures, advocating for stronger regulatory oversight of the shadow banking system is crucial. Pushing for greater transparency, capital adequacy requirements, and risk management protocols can mitigate the systemic risks emanating from this opaque corner of finance.
A Call to Action:
The potential for a shadow banking crisis in 2024 is not a foregone conclusion; it is a call to action. By understanding the risks, adopting proactive measures, and advocating for responsible regulation, we can navigate these perilous waters and ensure the continued prosperity of our businesses and the global economy. Remember, vigilance, diversification, and preparedness are our anchors in the coming storm. Let us act with foresight and build a future where shadows no longer threaten the economic sun.
The risks from shadow banking is another reason interest rate cuts in USA, EU and UK would be welcome but much needed regulation of the 220 trillion dollars invested in this area is probably not going to happen until 2025 at the earliest – if at all. Ironically the leverage problem is due to financial institutions lack of money!
Bricks and mortar last a long time but the work from home solution is a lasting problem for commercial property owners and the wider financial system stability
A Ticking Time Bomb: Risks of Renewing Commercial Property Loans in 2024
The American financial system stands on the precipice of a potential tremor in 2024. Not from earthquakes or stock market crashes, but from the quiet ticking of a time bomb: a vast swathe of commercial property loans approaching their renewal date. Over $1.5 trillion worth of these loans will mature next year, and the uncertain economic climate has cast a long shadow over their renegotiation, potentially triggering a series of cascading risks for the financial system.
A Perfect Storm of Uncertainties:
Several factors converge to create this precarious situation:
Shifting Market Dynamics: The pandemic’s impact on commercial real estate lingers. Office vacancy rates remain high, retail struggles to adapt to online shopping, and hospitality faces a new normal. These challenges erode property values, impacting the collateral backing these loans.
Rising Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation has driven interest rates upward. This significantly affects borrower affordability, putting pressure on them to repay or renegotiate at significantly higher interest rates, potentially pushing some into default.
Geopolitical Turbulence: The war in Ukraine and global supply chain disruptions add further pressure to the economic landscape. Higher energy costs and material shortages impact construction and operation costs,affecting tenants and ultimately, loan viability.
Regulatory Environment: Evolving regulatory guidelines around climate change and building standards could necessitate costly retrofits for older buildings, adding another layer of financial strain on borrowers and lenders alike.
The Cascade of Potential Risks:
If a significant portion of these loans experience distress or default, the consequences could ripple through the financial system:
Bank Stability: Banks heavily invested in commercial real estate loans could face significant losses, impacting their capital adequacy and lending capacity. This could lead to tighter credit conditions for businesses and individuals alike, hampering economic growth.
Investor Confidence: Weakening commercial real estate values could trigger a chain reaction, impacting other asset classes like real estate investment trusts (REITs) and mortgage-backed securities. This could lead to capital flight and market volatility.
Domino Effect: Defaults and distress in the commercial real estate market could have ripple effects on other sectors, particularly construction, hospitality, and retail, potentially leading to job losses and a broader economic slowdown.
385 American banks, most of them smaller, regional ones facing bankruptcy in 2024 due to bad commercial real estate loans up for renewal, according to a new report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Lower property values, increased interest rates, and declining office demand could lead more firms to default on their loans and fear of banking collapse will cause people to withdraw deposited money accelerating bank bankruptcies in USA.
Mitigating the Risks: Navigating the Labyrinth:
Avoiding these worst-case scenarios requires proactive measures from various stakeholders:
Loan Modifications: Lenders and borrowers need to work collaboratively to restructure existing loans, potentially extending terms or adjusting interest rates to reflect current market realities. Open communication and flexible solutions are crucial.
Government Intervention: Policymakers could consider targeted interventions like tax breaks or loan guarantee programs to incentivise investment and stabilise the sector. Measures to address affordability concerns in housing markets could also indirectly support commercial real estate by boosting tenant demand.
Industry Adaptation: The commercial real estate industry itself needs to embrace innovation and adaptability. Exploring alternative uses for struggling properties, embracing hybrid work models in office spaces, and fostering sustainable energy solutions can enhance viability and attract new tenants.
Diversification Strategies: Lenders need to diversify their loan portfolios to minimize exposure to any single sector. This could involve increasing their focus on sectors less vulnerable to economic downturns, like healthcare or infrastructure.
A Call for Vigilance and Collaboration:
The year 2024 looms large as a potential flashpoint for the American financial system. The fate of these maturing commercial property loans hangs in the balance, with their renegotiation holding the key to stability or potential turmoil. Vigilance, open communication, and proactive measures from lenders, borrowers, policymakers, and the industry as a whole are crucial to navigate this challenge and mitigate the risks. Ignoring the ticking time bomb will only amplify its potential explosion. By understanding the complexities of the situation and working together, we can chart a course towards a smooth renegotiation and a resilient financial future for America and beyond.
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The Travel Rule: Implications for Businesses and Investors in the UK
The Travel Rule (effective from 1st September 2023 in UK) is an international standard that requires financial institutions to collect and share information about cryptocurrency transfers. It was developed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organisation that sets standards for combating money laundering and terrorist financing.
The Travel Rule applies to all businesses that facilitate cryptocurrency transfers, including exchanges, wallets, and payment processors. In the UK, the Travel Rule will be enforced by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The Travel Rule requires businesses to collect the following information about each cryptocurrency transfer:
The name and address of the sender
The name and address of the recipient
The amount of the transfer
The date and time of the transfer
The type of cryptocurrency being transferred
Businesses must also verify the identity of the sender and recipient before sharing this information.
The Travel Rule is designed to prevent the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering and terrorist financing. By collecting and sharing information about cryptocurrency transfers, businesses can help to identify suspicious activity and track down criminals.
The Travel Rule will have a number of implications for businesses and investors in the UK.
For businesses
The Travel Rule will impose additional compliance requirements on businesses that facilitate cryptocurrency transfers. Businesses will need to implement systems and procedures to collect, verify, and share the required information. They will also need to train their staff on the Travel Rule and its requirements.
The Travel Rule is likely to increase the cost of doing business for cryptocurrency businesses. Businesses will need to invest in new technology and systems to comply with the rule. They may also need to hire additional staff to manage the compliance process.
The Travel Rule could also make it more difficult for businesses to onboard new customers. Businesses will need to collect more personal information from customers, which could deter some customers from using their services.
For investors
The Travel Rule could make it more difficult for investors to transfer cryptocurrencies between different wallets and exchanges. Businesses will need to verify the identity of both the sender and recipient of each cryptocurrency transfer, which could slow down the transfer process.
The Travel Rule could also make it more difficult for investors to remain anonymous. Businesses will be required to collect and share the name and address of each investor who makes a cryptocurrency transfer.
Overall, the Travel Rule is likely to have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency industry in the UK. Businesses will need to comply with the rule in order to avoid regulatory sanctions. Investors may also face some inconveniences as a result of the rule.
However, the Travel Rule is also seen as a necessary step to prevent the misuse of cryptocurrencies for criminal purposes. By collecting and sharing information about cryptocurrency transfers, businesses and law enforcement can work together to keep criminals out of the crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
The Travel Rule is a complex and challenging new regulation for the cryptocurrency industry. However, it is a necessary step to protect the integrity of the market and prevent the misuse of cryptocurrencies for criminal purposes. Businesses and investors in the UK should be prepared for the impact of the Travel Rule and take steps to comply with its requirements.
In addition to the above, here are some other implications of the Travel Rule for businesses and investors in the UK:
The Travel Rule could lead to increased regulation of the cryptocurrency industry. As governments around the world become more aware of the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, they may introduce new regulations to protect consumers and prevent financial crime.
The Travel Rule could also make it more difficult for businesses to operate in the cryptocurrency industry. Businesses that do not comply with the Travel Rule could face fines or other penalties.
The Travel Rule could also have a negative impact on the price of cryptocurrencies. As the regulatory burden on the industry increases, investors may become less willing to invest in cryptocurrencies.
Overall, the Travel Rule is a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry. It is important for businesses and investors to understand the implications of the rule and take steps to comply with its requirements.
London-based Jacobi Asset Management has listed Europe’s first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Euronext Amsterdam
Europe will see a spot bitcoin ETF traded before the U.S.. Europe’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF Lists in Amsterdam.
Implications for current cryptocurrencies of Financial Stability Board FSB recommendations for regulation of cryptos globally
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is an international body that monitors and makes recommendations on the global financial system. In July 2023, the FSB published a set of high-level recommendations for the regulation, supervision, and oversight of crypto-asset activities and markets. These recommendations are designed to address the financial stability risks posed by crypto-assets, while also supporting responsible innovation.
The FSB’s recommendations have a number of implications for current cryptocurrencies. First, they will require crypto-asset issuers and service providers to be subject to the same regulatory requirements as traditional financial institutions. This includes requirements for capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, and customer protection. Second, the recommendations will require crypto-asset exchanges and other trading platforms to be licensed and regulated. This will help to ensure that these platforms are operating in a safe and transparent manner. Third, the recommendations will call for increased cooperation between regulators across jurisdictions. This will help to prevent crypto-asset activities from being used to evade regulation or finance illegal activities.
The FSB’s recommendations are likely to have a significant impact on the crypto-asset industry. Some cryptocurrencies may not be able to meet the new regulatory requirements and may be forced to shut down. Others may be able to adapt to the new regulations, but they may face higher costs of compliance. In the long run, the FSB’s recommendations could lead to a more regulated and mature crypto-asset industry.
Will cryptos survive and prosper under FSB recommended regulations?
It is too early to say for sure whether cryptos will survive and prosper under the FSB’s recommended regulations. However, there are a number of factors that suggest that they could.
First, the crypto-asset industry is growing rapidly. In 2022, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies reached over $3 trillion. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including the increasing acceptance of cryptos by businesses and consumers, and the development of new crypto-based products and services.
Second, the crypto-asset industry is becoming more sophisticated. There are now a number of large and well-funded crypto companies that are developing innovative products and services. These companies are also investing heavily in compliance and risk management.
Third, the regulatory environment for cryptos is evolving. The FSB’s recommendations are a significant step forward, but they are not the only regulatory initiatives that are underway. Governments and regulators around the world are working to develop a comprehensive framework for regulating cryptos.
In conclusion, the FSB’s recommended regulations are likely to have a significant impact on the crypto-asset industry. However, there are a number of factors that suggest that cryptos could survive and prosper under these regulations. The industry is growing rapidly, becoming more sophisticated, and facing a more favorable regulatory environment. Only time will tell whether cryptos will ultimately become a mainstream asset class, but the FSB’s recommendations have made it more likely that they will.
Here are some additional thoughts on the implications of the FSB’s recommendations for the future of cryptos:
The recommendations could lead to a consolidation of the crypto-asset industry. Smaller and less well-funded crypto companies may struggle to meet the new regulatory requirements. This could lead to mergers and acquisitions, and a more concentrated industry.
The recommendations could make it more difficult for new cryptos to enter the market. The regulatory requirements will be a barrier to entry for many new projects. This could lead to a slowdown in the innovation that has been a hallmark of the crypto-asset industry.
The recommendations could make it more difficult for cryptos to be used for illegal activities. The increased regulation and oversight will make it more difficult for criminals to use cryptos to launder money or finance terrorism.
Overall, the FSB’s recommendations are a positive development for the crypto-asset industry. They will help to ensure that cryptos are used in a safe and responsible manner, and that they do not pose a risk to financial stability. However, the recommendations will also have some negative impacts on the industry, such as making it more difficult for new cryptos to enter the market. Only time will tell whether the positive impacts outweigh the negative impacts.
Nomura, Laser Digital and Dubai Marketplace For Crypto: Is The US Being Left Behind?
Keith Lewis 1 August 2023
Laser Digital, the digital assets subsidiary of Japanese bank Nomura has won an operating licence in Dubai, the latest in a number of mainstream financial institutions this year to enter the crypto sector.
Laser Digital received the licence from Dubai’s Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority, allowing it to offer crypto-related broker-dealer, management and investment services.
Ripple Wins Court Case Against SEC
In a landmark ruling on July 13, 2023, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres granted summary judgment in favour of Ripple Labs, Inc. in the SEC’s lawsuit alleging that XRP, the company’s native cryptocurrency, is a security. The ruling is a major victory for Ripple and the cryptocurrency industry, and it could have far-reaching implications for the future of regulation in the space.
The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple was filed in December 2020. The agency alleged that Ripple had violated federal securities laws by selling XRP to investors without registering it as a security. Ripple argued that XRP was not a security, but rather a currency or commodity.
In her ruling, Judge Torres found that the SEC had failed to prove that XRP was a security. She noted that the SEC’s definition of a security is “vague and open-ended,” and that the agency had not provided clear guidance on how to determine whether a cryptocurrency is a security.
Judge Torres also found that the SEC had failed to establish that Ripple had engaged in any fraudulent or deceptive conduct. She noted that Ripple had made it clear to investors that XRP was a high-risk investment, and that they should not invest more than they could afford to lose.
The ruling is a major victory for Ripple and the cryptocurrency industry. It could have far-reaching implications for the future of regulation in the space. The ruling could make it more difficult for the SEC to bring similar lawsuits against other cryptocurrency companies. It could also lead to the SEC issuing new guidance on how to determine whether a cryptocurrency is a security.
What will happen to XRP in 2023?
The ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case is a major positive development for XRP. The price of XRP surged by more than 70% in the hours following the ruling. It is likely that the price of XRP will continue to rise in the coming months and years.
The ruling could also lead to increased adoption of XRP by businesses and financial institutions. XRP is already used by a number of companies, including MoneyGram and Western Union. The ruling could make it more attractive for other companies to use XRP, as it would no longer be subject to the same regulatory uncertainty.
Overall, the ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case is a major positive development for XRP and the cryptocurrency industry. It could lead to increased adoption of XRP by businesses and financial institutions, and it could make it more difficult for the SEC to bring similar lawsuits against other cryptocurrency companies.
Key Takeaways
The SEC vs. Ripple case was a landmark ruling that could have far-reaching implications for the future of regulation in the cryptocurrency industry.
The ruling found that XRP is not a security, and that Ripple did not engage in any fraudulent or deceptive conduct.
The ruling is a major victory for Ripple and the cryptocurrency industry, and it could lead to increased adoption of XRP by businesses and financial institutions.
The ruling could also make it more difficult for the SEC to bring similar lawsuits against other cryptocurrency companies.
What are the next steps for Ripple?
Ripple has said that it plans to continue to develop XRP and its other products and services. The company also plans to continue to work with regulators around the world to ensure that XRP is used in a compliant manner.
The ruling in the SEC vs. Ripple case is a major step forward for Ripple. However, there are still challenges ahead. The company will need to continue to work with regulators and to build trust with the broader cryptocurrency community. If Ripple can successfully navigate these challenges, it is well-positioned to play a leading role in the future of the cryptocurrency industry.
Coinbase Sued by SEC for Selling Unregistered Securities
In June 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. The SEC alleged that Coinbase had violated securities laws by offering and selling unregistered securities.
The SEC’s complaint specifically named 12 digital assets that it claimed Coinbase had offered and sold as unregistered securities. These assets included Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and several other major cryptocurrencies.
The SEC argued that these assets were securities because they met the definition of an investment contract under the Howey Test. The Howey Test is a legal standard that defines an investment contract as an investment of money in a common enterprise with profits to come solely from the efforts of others.
The SEC alleged that Coinbase’s customers were investing money in a common enterprise by buying and selling cryptocurrencies on the platform. The SEC also alleged that Coinbase’s profits came solely from the efforts of others, namely the miners who process transactions and secure the blockchain networks on which cryptocurrencies are based.
Coinbase denied the SEC’s allegations and filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit. The company argued that the digital assets it offered and sold were not securities because they were not investments in common enterprises. Coinbase also argued that the SEC had not given it fair notice that its activities were illegal.
The case is still pending in federal court. A trial date has not yet been set.
Is Coinbase in Trouble?
The SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase is a significant development in the regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges. If the SEC is successful, it could set a precedent that would require other cryptocurrency exchanges to register with the SEC and comply with securities laws.
However, it is important to note that the case is still pending and Coinbase has denied the SEC’s allegations. It is possible that Coinbase will be able to win the case or reach a settlement with the SEC.
It is also worth noting that the SEC has not brought similar lawsuits against other major cryptocurrency exchanges. This suggests that the SEC may be targeting Coinbase specifically, perhaps because of its size or its high profile.
Only time will tell how the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase will be resolved. However, the case is a reminder that cryptocurrency exchanges are not immune from regulation and that they could face legal challenges in the future.
What are the Other Lawsuits Against Binance and Coinbase?
In addition to the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase, the company has also been sued by several private investors. These investors allege that they lost money by investing in cryptocurrencies on Coinbase’s platform.
The investors’ lawsuits allege that Coinbase failed to adequately disclose the risks associated with cryptocurrency investing. They also allege that Coinbase engaged in market manipulation and that it allowed fraudulent activity to take place on its platform.
Coinbase has denied the investors’ allegations and has filed motions to dismiss the lawsuits. The cases are still pending in federal court.
Binance, another major cryptocurrency exchange, has also been sued by the SEC and by private investors. The SEC’s lawsuit against Binance alleges that the company operated an unregistered securities exchange. The private investors’ lawsuits allege that Binance engaged in market manipulation and that it allowed fraudulent activity to take place on its platform.
Binance has denied the SEC’s allegations and has filed motions to dismiss the private investors’ lawsuits. The cases are still pending in federal court.
Is Coinbase Winning the Lawsuits?
It is too early to say whether Coinbase will win the lawsuits against it. The cases are still pending and it is possible that they could be resolved through settlement.
However, Coinbase has a strong legal team and it has denied all of the allegations against it. The company has also filed motions to dismiss the lawsuits, which suggests that it is confident in its chances of winning.
Only time will tell how the lawsuits against Coinbase will be resolved. However, the company has a good chance of prevailing in court.
Update 29 June 2023
Coinbase has filed papers asking a New York federal court to dismiss the SECs lawsuit that accuses the company of offering a dozen unregistered securities. Coinbase claimed the case should be thrown out in part because the digital assets it lists for trading are not “investment contracts”. Coinbase says the tokens it sells can’t be investment contracts because buyers and sellers are simply assets that are not tied to any contractual obligation.
Coinbase also claims that tokens that were once securities can cease to have that status as the blockchains that host them become increasingly decentralised.
Coinbase’s argument that its listed tokens are simply assets and not investment tokens has not been seriously tested in U.S. courts. The court case is unlikely to conclude until 2024.
Coinbase is also relying heavily on a so-called “fair notice defense” that is based around the constitutional principle the governments cannot initiate prosecutions if they have failed to let people know about the relevant law at issue.
Bitcoin: Going to Zero or a Million?
The future of Bitcoin is a hotly debated topic. Some believe that the cryptocurrency is a bubble that is destined to burst, while others believe that it is the future of money.
There are a number of factors that could lead to Bitcoin going to zero. One is if there is a widespread loss of confidence in the cryptocurrency. This could happen if there were a major security breach or if governments cracked down on Bitcoin.
Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be replaced by a newer, more efficient cryptocurrency. There are already a number of competing cryptocurrencies, and it is possible that one of these could eventually supplant Bitcoin.
However, there are also a number of factors that could lead to Bitcoin reaching a million dollars or more. One is if Bitcoin becomes more widely adopted as a form of payment. This is already starting to happen, as more and more businesses are beginning to accept Bitcoin.
Another possibility is that Bitcoin could become a store of value. This is because Bitcoin is limited in supply, and it is not subject to government interference. As a result, Bitcoin could become an attractive investment for people who are looking for a safe way to store their wealth.
So, which way will Bitcoin go? It is impossible to say for sure. However, the evidence suggests that Bitcoin is here to stay. The cryptocurrency has a number of unique properties that make it valuable, and it is likely to continue to grow in popularity in the years to come.
Arguments for Bitcoin Reaching a Million Dollars
There are a number of arguments that suggest that Bitcoin could reach a million dollars or more in the future. These arguments include:
Limited supply: Bitcoin is a finite resource. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins created, which means that the supply of Bitcoin cannot be inflated. This makes Bitcoin a valuable store of value, as it is not subject to the same inflationary pressures as fiat currencies.
Growing demand: The demand for Bitcoin is growing rapidly. More and more people are buying Bitcoin as an investment, and as a way to pay for goods and services. This growing demand is likely to push the price of Bitcoin higher in the future.
Adoption by institutions: A number of large institutions are starting to adopt Bitcoin. This includes investment firms, hedge funds, and even banks. This institutional adoption is likely to give Bitcoin more legitimacy and credibility, which could lead to even higher prices.
Technological innovation: The Bitcoin network is constantly being improved. This includes the development of new features, such as the Lightning Network, which makes it faster and cheaper to send Bitcoin payments. These technological innovations are likely to make Bitcoin more user-friendly and accessible, which could lead to even more demand.
Arguments Against Bitcoin Reaching a Million Dollars
There are also a number of arguments that suggest that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach a million dollars. These arguments include:
Volatility: Bitcoin is a very volatile asset. The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated wildly over the past few years. This volatility makes it difficult to predict the future price of Bitcoin, and it could make it a risky investment for some people.
Regulatory risk: There is a risk that governments could crack down on Bitcoin. This could happen if governments become concerned about the potential for Bitcoin to be used for illegal activities. A regulatory crackdown could have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin.
Competition: There are a number of other cryptocurrencies that are competing with Bitcoin. These cryptocurrencies offer different features and benefits, and they could eventually supplant Bitcoin.
The future of Bitcoin is uncertain. However, the evidence suggests that Bitcoin is here to stay. The cryptocurrency has a number of unique properties that make it valuable, and it is likely to continue to grow in popularity in the years to come. Whether Bitcoin will reach a million dollars or more is anyone’s guess. However, the potential for significant gains is there, and this could make Bitcoin an attractive investment for some people.
What Do You Think?
What do you think the future holds for Bitcoin? Do you think it will reach a million dollars or more? Or do you think it is more likely to go to zero? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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Will Bitcoin ever be worth $1 million?
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Do they have to kill crypto to successfully adopt CBDCs?
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are digital versions of fiat currencies that are issued and regulated by central banks. They are designed to offer the same benefits as traditional cash, such as anonymity and ease of use, while also providing some of the advantages of digital payments, such as speed and efficiency.
Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, are decentralised digital currencies that are not issued or regulated by any central authority. They are based on blockchain technology, which is a secure and transparent distributed ledger system.
There is a growing debate about whether central banks need to kill crypto in order to successfully adopt CBDCs. Some argue that cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the financial system and that central banks need to take steps to ensure that they do not gain widespread adoption. Others argue that cryptocurrencies can actually complement CBDCs and that the two can coexist in the future.
Arguments for killing crypto
There are a number of arguments in favor of central banks killing crypto. One argument is that cryptocurrencies are a threat to financial stability. Cryptocurrencies are often volatile and can be used for illegal activities, such as money laundering and terrorist financing. This could lead to a loss of confidence in the financial system and could make it more difficult for central banks to manage monetary policy.
Another argument is that cryptocurrencies are a threat to consumer protection. Cryptocurrencies are often complex and difficult to understand. This could lead to consumers being scammed or losing money. Central banks have a responsibility to protect consumers and could do this by banning cryptocurrencies.
Arguments for coexisting with crypto
There are also a number of arguments in favour of central banks coexisting with crypto. One argument is that cryptocurrencies can actually complement CBDCs. For example, cryptocurrencies can be used for international payments, while CBDCs can be used for domestic payments. This could make it easier and cheaper for people to make payments across borders.
Another argument is that cryptocurrencies can promote innovation. The development of cryptocurrencies has led to the development of new technologies, such as blockchain. These technologies could be used to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system.
The debate about whether central banks need to kill crypto is likely to continue for some time. There are valid arguments on both sides of the issue. Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to kill crypto will be up to individual central banks. There are direct and indirect ways central banks and governments can try to kill crypto. However, the global marketplace suggests that central banks would need to do it globally and it is not clear how they would coordinate such action when it is difficult to get global agreement on anything. Furthermore, there is an argument that cryptos like Bitcoin provide a way to hold and retain value that is outside the reach and control of central banks and national governments.
However, it is important to note that the adoption of CBDCs is not a zero-sum game. It is possible for both CBDCs and cryptocurrencies to coexist. In fact, it is possible that the two could complement each other and help to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system. Attempts to kill crypto by central banks and national governments may raise questions as to the motivations of centres of power.
What are the tangible benefits to businesses of utilising cryptocurrencies?
Cryptocurrencies are digital or virtual tokens that use cryptography for security. A cryptocurrency is difficult to counterfeit because of this security feature. A defining feature of a cryptocurrency, and arguably its most endearing allure, is its organic nature. It is not issued by any central authority, rendering it theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation.
Cryptocurrencies use decentralised control as opposed to centralised digital currency and central banking systems. The decentralised control of each cryptocurrency works through a blockchain, which is a public transaction database, functioning as a distributed ledger. Bitcoin, first released as open-source software in 2009, is generally considered the first decentralised cryptocurrency. Since the release of bitcoin, over 4,000 altcoins (alternative variants of bitcoin, or other cryptocurrencies) have been created.
There are many potential benefits for businesses that adopt cryptocurrencies. Some of these benefits include:
Reduced transaction fees: Cryptocurrency transactions typically have much lower fees than traditional bank transfers or credit card payments. This can save businesses money on processing costs.
Faster transactions: Cryptocurrency transactions can be processed much faster than traditional bank transfers or credit card payments. This can improve customer satisfaction and make it easier for businesses to compete with online retailers.
Global reach: Cryptocurrency transactions can be made anywhere in the world, without the need for a third-party intermediary. This can help businesses expand into new markets and reach new customers.
Increased security: Cryptocurrency transactions are more secure than traditional bank transfers or credit card payments. This is because cryptocurrency transactions are encrypted and recorded on a public ledger.
Reduced risk of fraud: Cryptocurrency transactions are less susceptible to fraud than traditional bank transfers or credit card payments. This is because cryptocurrency transactions are irreversible and cannot be disputed.
What is tangible about cryptocurrency?
The tangible benefits of cryptocurrency to businesses are the reduced transaction fees, faster transactions, global reach, increased security, and reduced risk of fraud. These benefits can help businesses save money, improve customer satisfaction, expand into new markets, and reduce the risk of fraud.
Is cryptocurrency tangible or intangible?
Cryptocurrency is a digital asset, which means that it is not a physical object. However, it does have tangible value. This value is derived from the fact that cryptocurrency can be used to purchase goods and services. It can also be used to store value and to invest.
Does cryptocurrency have any tangible value?
Yes, cryptocurrency has tangible value. This value is derived from the fact that cryptocurrency can be used to purchase goods and services. It can also be used to store value and to invest.
The value of cryptocurrency is determined by supply and demand. The supply of cryptocurrency is limited, as there is a finite number of bitcoins that will ever be created. The demand for cryptocurrency is growing, as more and more businesses and individuals are beginning to accept it as a form of payment.
As the demand for cryptocurrency continues to grow, its value is likely to increase. This makes cryptocurrency a good investment for those who are looking to protect their wealth from inflation and other economic risks.
The adoption of cryptocurrency by businesses can offer a number of tangible benefits, including reduced transaction fees, faster transactions, global reach, increased security, and reduced risk of fraud. These benefits can help businesses save money, improve customer satisfaction, expand into new markets, and reduce the risk of fraud.
As the use of cryptocurrency continues to grow, businesses that adopt it early may be able to gain a competitive advantage.
Will SEC attacks on likes of CoinBase and Binance impede or protect USA economy
Some people with high powers and responsibilities in USA are increasing their attack on crypto-sphere. What will it mean for the America and global economy?
As the rest of the world is opening its mind to the place of cryptocurrency in modern world America is doubling down on its suppression of cryptocurrency.
Opinion: Keith Lewis 8 June 2023 It is still too early to say whether the SEC’s attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase and Binance will impede or protect the US economy. However, there are a few potential outcomes that could occur.
One possibility is that the SEC’s actions will stifle innovation in the cryptocurrency industry. The SEC has been criticised for its heavy-handed approach to regulating cryptocurrency, and some fear that this could lead to businesses leaving the US or choosing not to launch their products here in the first place. This could have a negative impact on the US economy, as it could prevent the development of new technologies and businesses that could create jobs and boost economic growth.
Another possibility is that the SEC’s actions will protect investors from fraud and abuse. The cryptocurrency industry has been plagued by scams and other forms of fraud, and the SEC’s actions could help to protect investors from these risks. This could lead to increased investment in the cryptocurrency industry, which could have a positive impact on the US economy.
It is also possible that the SEC’s actions will have a mixed impact on the US economy. It is possible that the SEC’s actions will stifle innovation while also protecting investors. This could lead to a slower pace of economic growth, but it could also lead to a more stable and secure cryptocurrency industry.
Only time will tell what the ultimate impact of the SEC’s actions will be. However, it is clear that the SEC’s actions have the potential to have a significant impact on the US economy.
Here are some additional thoughts on the matter:
The SEC’s actions could also lead to increased regulation of the cryptocurrency industry, which could make it more difficult for businesses to operate in this space. This could make it harder for the cryptocurrency industry to compete with traditional financial institutions, which could have a negative impact on the US economy.
The SEC’s actions could also lead to increased public scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry, which could make it more difficult for businesses to raise capital and attract customers. This could make it harder for the cryptocurrency industry to grow, which could have a negative impact on the US economy.
Overall, the SEC’s actions on cryptocurrency exchanges are a complex issue with the potential to have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy. It is important to monitor the situation closely and to assess the impact of the SEC’s actions as they unfold.
New Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Rules Take Effect on 1 June 2023
The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong has finalised rules to allow retail trading of cryptocurrencies from June 1, 2023. The new rules are designed to protect investors and promote the development of the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong.
Under the new rules, only licensed cryptocurrency exchanges will be allowed to offer retail trading services. Licensed exchanges will be subject to a number of requirements, including:
They must have adequate financial resources and risk management systems.
They must conduct due diligence on their customers.
They must provide clear and concise information about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies.
The SFC has also issued a number of guidance notes to help licensed exchanges comply with the new rules.
The new rules are expected to have a number of benefits for the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong. First, they will provide investors with greater confidence in the safety and security of their investments. Second, they will help to attract new investors to the industry. Third, they will help to promote the development of the industry in Hong Kong.
The new rules have been welcomed by the industry. The Hong Kong Blockchain Association said that the rules “will help to create a more stable and transparent environment for the development of the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong.”
The new rules are a significant step forward for the development of the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong. They will help to protect investors, promote the development of the industry, and attract new investors to Hong Kong.
What are the new rules?
The new rules are set out in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (SFO) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) Handbook. The SFO provides the legal framework for the regulation of securities and futures in Hong Kong. The SFC Handbook provides guidance on how the SFO is to be interpreted and applied.
The key provisions of the new rules are as follows:
Only licensed cryptocurrency exchanges will be allowed to offer retail trading services.
Licensed exchanges will be subject to a number of requirements, including:
They must provide clear and concise information about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies.
The SFC has also issued a number of guidance notes to help licensed exchanges comply with the new rules.
What are the benefits of the new rules?
The new rules are expected to have a number of benefits for the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong. First, they will provide investors with greater confidence in the safety and security of their investments. Second, they will help to attract new investors to the industry. Third, they will help to promote the development of the industry in Hong Kong.
What are the challenges of the new rules?
The new rules will present a number of challenges for the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong. First, it will be a challenge for licensed exchanges to meet the requirements of the new rules. Second, it will be a challenge for the SFC to effectively regulate the industry.
What is the future of the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong?
The new rules are a significant step forward for the development of the virtual assets industry in Hong Kong. They will help to protect investors, promote the development of the industry, and attract new investors to Hong Kong. The industry is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.
What are the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies?
Cryptocurrencies are a new and volatile asset class. As such, there are a number of risks associated with investing in them. These risks include:
The risk of loss: The value of cryptocurrencies can fluctuate wildly. As such, there is a risk that you could lose money if you invest in them.
The risk of fraud: There have been a number of cases of fraud involving cryptocurrencies. As such, there is a risk that you could lose money if you invest in a fraudulent scheme.
The risk of regulation: The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies is still evolving. As such, there is a risk that your investment could be affected by changes in regulation.
How can I protect myself from the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies?
There are a number of things you can do to protect yourself from the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies. These include:
Do your research: Before you invest in any cryptocurrency, make sure you do your research and understand the risks involved.
Invest only what you can afford to lose: Remember that the value of cryptocurrencies can fluctuate wildly. As such, you should only invest money that you can afford to lose.
Use a reputable exchange: When you buy or sell cryptocurrencies, use a reputable.
Could these new rules open drive Bitcoin value up particularly as Hong Kong May give easier access to millions of Chinese investors?
It is possible that the new rules could drive Bitcoin value up, particularly as Hong Kong may give easier access to millions of Chinese investors.
The new rules will provide investors with greater confidence in the safety and security of their investments, which could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin. Additionally, the new rules will make it easier for Chinese investors to access Bitcoin, which could also lead to increased demand.
However, it is important to note that there are a number of factors that could affect the price of Bitcoin, including the overall economic climate, the performance of other cryptocurrencies, and regulatory changes. As such, it is impossible to say for sure whether the new rules will drive Bitcoin value up.
Here are some of the reasons why the new rules could drive Bitcoin value up:
Increased investor confidence:The new rules will provide investors with greater confidence in the safety and security of their investments. This could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, as investors will be more willing to put their money into it.
Easier access for Chinese investors: The new rules will make it easier for Chinese investors to access Bitcoin. This could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, as China is a major market for cryptocurrencies.
Positive media attention: The new rules have been met with positive media attention. This could lead to increased awareness of Bitcoin, which could also lead to increased demand.
However, there are also some reasons why the new rules could not drive Bitcoin value up:
Overall economic climate: The overall economic climate could have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. If the economy is doing poorly, investors may be less willing to invest in risky assets like Bitcoin.
Performance of other cryptocurrencies: The performance of other cryptocurrencies could also have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. If other cryptocurrencies are performing better than Bitcoin, investors may be more likely to invest in them instead.
Regulatory changes: Regulatory changes could also have a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin. If governments start to regulate cryptocurrencies more heavily, investors may be less willing to invest in them.
Overall, it is too early to say whether the new rules will drive Bitcoin value up. There are a number of factors that could affect the price of Bitcoin, and it is impossible to say for sure how these factors will play out.
Maximising Profits and Minimising Risks: Navigating the Cryptocurrency Landscape for UK Businesses
Cryptocurrency Risks and Opportunities
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have been gaining popularity in recent years, and businesses in the UK are starting to take notice. While these digital currencies offer a number of benefits, they also come with a number of risks and challenges. In this article, we will explore the threats and opportunities that cryptocurrencies present for businesses in the UK.
Threats
One of the biggest threats that businesses in the UK face when it comes to cryptocurrencies is their volatility. Cryptocurrencies are known for their fluctuations in value, which can be significant and happen quickly. This volatility makes it difficult for businesses to predict and plan for the future, as they may not know how much a particular cryptocurrency will be worth at any given time.
Another threat is the risk of hacking. Cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets are vulnerable to cyber attacks, and if a business stores large amounts of cryptocurrency, it could be at risk of losing it all in the event of a successful hack.
Regulatory risks are also present for businesses that deal with cryptocurrencies. The UK government has not yet created a comprehensive framework for the regulation of cryptocurrencies, which means that businesses may not be sure of their legal obligations or of how to comply with them. This could result in fines or other penalties if a business is found to be in violation of any laws or regulations.
Opportunities
Despite these threats, there are also a number of opportunities that cryptocurrencies present for businesses in the UK. One of the biggest opportunities is the ability to reach a global market. Cryptocurrencies are decentralised, meaning that they are not controlled by any government or institution. This makes them accessible to anyone with an internet connection, regardless of where they are located.
Another opportunity is the ability to reduce transaction costs. Traditional payment methods, such as credit cards, can be costly for businesses, as they often have to pay fees to the banks and other financial institutions that process the transactions. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, can be sent and received directly between parties, without the need for intermediaries, which can reduce costs significantly.
Innovation is another opportunity for businesses in the UK. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology have the potential to change the way that businesses operate and interact with their customers. For example, blockchain technology can be used to create secure and transparent supply chain management systems, which can improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Cryptocurrencies present a number of threats and opportunities for businesses in the UK. While the volatility and risk of hacking are significant concerns, the ability to reach a global market and reduce transaction costs are among the key opportunities that these digital currencies offer. Businesses that are considering incorporating cryptocurrencies into their operations should weigh the risks and benefits carefully, and should be prepared to adapt as the regulatory environment evolves.
Is money laundering the only reason nation states want to regulate and perhaps eliminate use of any unregulated crypto currency?
Are more USA crypto regulatory measures on their way? Could they be part of coordinated global clampdown on crypto?
There are bad actors using crypto to launder money. However, the biggest banks in the world have been regularly been fined for repeated widespread mismanagement that resulted in money being laundered by the traditional finance establishment. Is money laundering risk being used by the traditional finance establishment and national governments as an excuse to regulate crypto? Maybe even eliminate current crypto in favour of national CBDC or one international CBDC?
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Are UK Banks Like Natwest Clamping Down on Cryptocurrency in September 2023?
In recent months, there has been growing concern that UK banks are clamping down on cryptocurrency. In particular, Natwest has come under fire for its new terms and conditions, which state that the bank will no longer allow customers to make payments to cryptocurrency exchanges.
This has led to speculation that Natwest is trying to prevent its customers from investing in cryptocurrency. However, the bank has denied this, saying that the new terms and conditions are simply a way of protecting customers from fraud and other risks.
So, what is the truth about UK banks and cryptocurrency? Are they really clamping down on it? And if so, why?
The Controversy Surrounding Cashless Society
One of the main reasons why banks are concerned about cryptocurrency is because it could pose a threat to the cashless society. In recent years, there has been a growing trend towards a cashless society, with more and more people using cards and online payments instead of cash.
Banks are keen to promote this trend, as it makes it easier for them to track customer spending and to collect fees. However, cryptocurrency could undermine the cashless society by providing an alternative way to make payments.
This is why some banks have been accused of trying to stifle the growth of cryptocurrency. For example, in 2017, Barclays banned its customers from buying cryptocurrency. And in 2018, HSBC said that it would not allow its customers to use its credit cards to buy cryptocurrency.
The Real Threat to Cryptocurrency
However, the real threat to cryptocurrency is not from banks. It is from governments.
Governments around the world are increasingly concerned about the potential risks posed by cryptocurrency. These risks include the use of cryptocurrency for money laundering and terrorist financing. Governments also risk losing control of the money – control the money control the people.
As a result, governments are starting to regulate cryptocurrency. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has issued guidance on cryptocurrency.
NatWest’s New Terms and Conditions
Natwest is introducing new terms and conditions that will have the effect of potentially restricting customer payments to cryptocurrency exchanges and payments into back accounts from cryptocurrency. These terms and conditions are designed to protect customers from fraud and other risks, but are also potentially worrying controls over people and businesses human rights.
They send a clear message to customers that Natwest does not approve of cryptocurrency. And this message is likely to be echoed by other banks.
The Future of Cryptocurrency
So, what does the future hold for cryptocurrency? It is difficult to say. However, it is clear that banks and governments are not keen on the idea.
This could make it difficult for cryptocurrency to achieve widespread global adoption. How difficult will depend on global governance.
Only time will tell what the future holds for cryptocurrency. However, one thing is for sure: the controversy surrounding it is not going away anytime soon
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As the world becomes more digitised, cryptocurrencies have become a popular form of payment for individuals and businesses alike. With the rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, many businesses are now considering accepting these currencies as a form of payment. Additionally, some businesses are even paying their employees and contractors in cryptocurrencies. In this article, we will discuss how businesses can get paid in crypto through the BusinessRiskTV.com marketplace.
What is Cryptocurrency?
Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security. Cryptography is a technique for secure communication that is used to keep transactions secure and private. Cryptocurrencies use a decentralized system that allows for peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks or governments.
One of the most popular cryptocurrencies is Bitcoin. Bitcoin was created in 2009 by an unknown person using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is decentralised, meaning it is not controlled by any government or financial institution. Instead, it is maintained by a network of users who validate and record transactions on a public ledger called the blockchain.
Other popular cryptocurrencies include Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. These cryptocurrencies are also decentralised and operate on similar blockchain technology.
Why Get Paid in Cryptocurrency?
There are several reasons why businesses might want to get paid in cryptocurrency. First, cryptocurrencies offer fast and secure transactions without the need for intermediaries. This means that businesses can receive payments instantly, without having to wait for banks or other financial institutions to process the transaction.
Second, cryptocurrencies offer lower transaction fees compared to traditional payment methods. This can save businesses money in the long run, especially if they receive a large volume of payments.
Finally, cryptocurrencies offer a level of anonymity and privacy that is not possible with traditional payment methods. This can be particularly useful for businesses that operate in industries where privacy is important, such as adult entertainment or gambling.
How to Get Paid in Cryptocurrency through BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace
BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace is an online platform that connects businesses with buyers and sellers around the world. The platform allows businesses to buy and sell goods and services in a secure and efficient manner. Additionally, the platform also supports cryptocurrency payments, making it easy for businesses to get paid in cryptocurrency.
To get started, businesses will need to sign up for a BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace account. Once the account is created, businesses can list their products or services for sale on the platform. When a buyer makes a purchase, the seller will receive payment in the currency of their choice, including cryptocurrency.
To receive payments in cryptocurrency, businesses will need to provide their cryptocurrency wallet address to the buyer. The buyer will then send the payment to the provided wallet address. Once the payment is received, the seller can withdraw the funds to their bank account or continue to hold the cryptocurrency.
Benefits of Using BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace
There are several benefits of using BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace to get paid in cryptocurrency. First, the platform offers a secure and efficient way for businesses to sell their products or services. The platform uses advanced security measures to protect user data and prevent fraud.
Second, BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace supports multiple payment options, including cryptocurrency. This makes it easy for businesses to receive payments in the currency of their choice.
Finally, BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace offers a global audience, allowing businesses to reach buyers and sellers from around the world. This can help businesses expand their customer base and increase their revenue.
Potential Risks of Using Cryptocurrency
While there are many benefits to using cryptocurrency, there are also potential risks that businesses should be aware of. One of the main risks is the volatility of cryptocurrency prices. Cryptocurrency prices can fluctuate rapidly, which can result in large gains or losses for businesses.
Additionally, cryptocurrencies are not regulated by governments or financial institutions, which can make them vulnerable to fraud and hacking
Finally, businesses should be aware of the potential legal and tax implications of using cryptocurrency. Regulations regarding cryptocurrency vary from country to country, and businesses should consult with a legal or tax professional before accepting cryptocurrency payments.
Cryptocurrency is becoming an increasingly popular form of payment for businesses around the world. By accepting cryptocurrency payments, businesses can benefit from fast and secure transactions, lower transaction fees, and increased privacy. BusinessRiskTV.com Marketplace is an online platform that supports cryptocurrency payments, making it easy for businesses to get paid in cryptocurrency. However, businesses should also be aware of the potential risks and legal and tax implications of using cryptocurrency. By understanding these risks and taking appropriate measures, businesses can benefit from the advantages of cryptocurrency while minimising potential drawbacks.
Are Cryptos Securities?
The question of whether or not cryptocurrencies are securities has been debated for years. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken the position that most cryptocurrencies are securities, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has argued that they are commodities.
The SEC’s position is based on the Howey Test, a legal test that is used to determine whether an investment is a security. The Howey Test asks three questions:
Is there an investment of money?
Is there an expectation of profits from the investment?
Are those profits to come from the efforts of a promoter or third party?
The SEC argues that cryptocurrencies meet all three criteria of the Howey Test. First, investors put money into cryptocurrencies. Second, investors expect to make a profit from their investment. Third, those profits are to come from the efforts of the developers of the cryptocurrency, who are working to create a new and innovative technology.
The CFTC, on the other hand, argues that cryptocurrencies are commodities. Commodities are defined as “any good, article, service, right, or interest in which there is an actual or potential commerce.” The CFTC argues that cryptocurrencies meet this definition because they are bought and sold on exchanges, and their prices are determined by supply and demand.
The debate over whether or not cryptocurrencies are securities is likely to continue for some time. The SEC and the CFTC are both powerful regulatory agencies, and they have different views on how to regulate cryptocurrencies. It is possible that the courts will eventually have to decide the issue.
In the meantime, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a new and volatile asset class, and they are not regulated by the government in the same way that stocks and bonds are. As a result, investors could lose all of their money if they invest in cryptocurrencies.
Are Cryptocurrencies a Security, Commodity, or Currency?
The classification of cryptocurrencies is a complex and evolving issue. Some argue that cryptocurrencies are securities, while others believe that they are commodities or currencies. The classification of cryptocurrencies has important implications for regulation and taxation.
Securities
A security is an investment contract that provides the investor with an expectation of profits. Securities are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC has stated that it believes that many cryptocurrencies are securities.
Commodities
A commodity is a good or service that is bought and sold on an exchange. Commodities are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC has not yet taken a position on whether or not cryptocurrencies are commodities.
Currencies
A currency is a medium of exchange that is used to purchase goods and services. Currencies are not regulated by the SEC or the CFTC.
The classification of cryptocurrencies is still up for debate. However, it is important to understand the potential implications of different classifications. For example, if cryptocurrencies are classified as securities, then they would be subject to the same regulations as stocks and bonds. This could make it more difficult for businesses to raise money through cryptocurrency ICOs.
The Future of Crypto Regulation
The regulation of cryptocurrencies is a rapidly evolving area of law. The SEC, the CFTC, and other regulators are still working to develop a comprehensive framework for regulating cryptocurrencies.
It is likely that the regulation of cryptocurrencies will continue to evolve in the coming years. As cryptocurrencies become more popular, regulators will need to develop new rules and regulations to protect investors and ensure market integrity.
How to Invest in Cryptocurrencies Safely
If you are considering investing in cryptocurrencies, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. Here are a few tips for investing in cryptocurrencies safely:
Only invest money that you can afford to lose.
Do your research and understand the risks involved in investing in cryptocurrencies.
Only invest in cryptocurrencies through reputable exchanges.
Use strong passwords and two-factor authentication to protect your accounts.
Be aware of scams and fraudulent activity.
By following these tips, you can help to protect yourself when investing in cryptocurrencies.
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Failing to be innovative and creative in the financial services sector may place your business at a competitive disadvantage. However innovation and creativity brings added risk. Is that added risk with it? Enterprise risk management ERM approach will help you decide.
In addition ERM risk based decision making will help you protect your financial services business better. Align your business strategy with best practice risk management tools and techniques to reduce strategic operational and project risks.
Regulatory compliance increased investor engagement and expectations and increasingly volatile geopolitical risks makes investing for the future and management of investment risks harder
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The future of financial services industry risk management is also changing with artificial intelligence divergent regulatory controls and splintering risk culture ambitions driving changes in practice.
Keep up to date with best risk management tools and techniques to improve your business decision making. The financial financial crisis is beginning. We just do not know where it started and what we are doing wrong. However being prepared for the next financial crisis should be part of a holistic enterprise risk management approach.
Chances are that fintech will play a role in the next financial crisis. Technology risks are a key risk factor for business growth and disaster for financial services companies in particular.
Lack of need to control risks will also play a role in the next financial crisis. The financial services industry has found it near impossible to manage its own risks without regulatory control. Dissipation in regulatory control will precipitate the financial services industry lunging over the cliff.
The fact that the financial services sector has still not recovered from the last financial crisis is another reason that another financial crisis will occur. ItalianChinese and Indian banks are in particular bursting at the seems with near unmanageable debt levels. Add to that boiling frothing pot of junk political instability in EuropeAsia and Americas then you have a perfect storm waiting to be unleashed.
Should we withdraw from business or investing? Of course not. It has always been thus. It has always been about the survival of the fittest. However what has changed is that there is increased realisation that the fittest are those businesses and investors who invest in socially responsible investing. Environmental social and governance risk factors are at play. The strongest are the ones who embrace this philosophy.
A holistic enterprise risk management approach to business management and investing is the future. If you are waiting to look back and acknowledge that with hindsight you will be one who suffers most from the next financial crisis. You may not survive the long term. If you are not looking to the long term then good luck to you. You might get lucky. If you are looking for long term sustainability get on the holistic enterprise risk management boat today. Create long term value through enterprise risk management today not tomorrow.
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Globally Empty Office Buildings and Commercial Property Creating Debt Collapse, Systemic Threat to Banking System Worldwide
The COVID-19 pandemic and central banks response – overprinting of money out of thin air – has had a devastating impact on the global economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than in the commercial real estate sector. As businesses have been forced to close or operate remotely, millions of square feet of office space have been vacated, leaving office buildings empty around the world.
This has led to a sharp decline in property values, and many commercial real estate owners are now facing significant financial losses. In some cases, these losses have become so severe that they have forced property owners to default on their loans, which could have a ripple effect throughout the global banking system.
Who Has the Most Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
The financial institutions that have the most exposure to commercial real estate are those that specialise in lending to businesses and developers. These institutions include commercial banks, investment banks, regional banks in USA and insurance companies.
According to a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, commercial banks worldwide have about $20 trillion in outstanding loans to commercial real estate borrowers. This represents about 10% of all bank lending globally.
Investment banks and insurance companies also have significant exposure to commercial real estate. Investment banks, for example, often underwrite and market commercial real estate bonds, which are a type of debt security that is backed by the income generated from rental properties. Insurance companies, on the other hand, often invest in commercial real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are companies that own and operate income-producing properties.
Are Banks in Danger?
The sharp decline in commercial real estate values has raised concerns that banks could be in danger of suffering significant losses on their loans to commercial real estate borrowers. In some cases, these losses could be so severe that they could force banks to default on their own debts, which could lead to a systemic financial crisis.
However, it is important to note that banks have a variety of tools at their disposal to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. For example, banks can sell off their commercial real estate loans to other investors, or they can take steps to restructure the terms of these loans. At the same time if the sea level is going down for all banks in real estate debt crisis will there be enough saviours?
In addition, the government can also play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market. For example, the government can provide financial assistance to banks that are struggling with commercial real estate losses, or it can provide tax breaks to businesses that are considering moving back into office space. At the same time this is inflationary and may result in even higher interest rates – problem delayed but worsened thereby extending and increasing length of recession creating depression.
How Many Office Buildings Are Empty in the US?
According to a recent survey by the commercial real estate firm CBRE, about 15% of office space in the United States is currently vacant. This represents about 250 million square feet of empty office space.
The vacancy rate is highest in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. In these cities, the vacancy rate is often above 20%.
The vacancy rate is also high in some smaller cities and towns. For example, the vacancy rate in the city of Detroit is currently over 30%.
These, official, vacancy rates seem lower than real levels other agencies produce and anecdotally.
Why Are the Banks in Trouble?
The banks are in trouble because they have lent too much money to commercial real estate borrowers. When these borrowers default on their loans, the banks are left holding the bag.
The banks are also in trouble because the value of their commercial real estate assets has declined. This decline in value has made it more difficult for the banks to sell these assets, and it has also reduced the amount of collateral that they have available to secure their loans.
The banks are also facing increased competition from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and hedge funds. These non-bank lenders are often willing to lend money to commercial real estate borrowers at lower interest rates than the banks.
Conclusion
The global pandemic has had a devastating impact on the commercial real estate sector, and this has led to significant financial losses for banks and other financial institutions. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, as more and more businesses continue to operate remotely. If it gets worse it will be a very long time – decades – before it gets better!
The government will need to play a role in helping to stabilise the commercial real estate market, and banks will need to take steps to manage their exposure to commercial real estate risk. If these steps are not taken, the global banking system could be in danger of a systemic crisis.
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Managing Risk in Financial Services
Managing Risk in the Ever-Evolving Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry is a complex and dynamic sector that plays a vital role in the global economy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, including banking, insurance, investment management, and more. However, with the constant changes and uncertainties in the business landscape, managing risk has become a critical aspect of the financial services industry. In this article, we will explore the challenges and best practices of managing risk in the ever-evolving financial services industry.
The Changing Landscape of the Financial Services Industry
The financial services industry has gone through significant changes over the years, driven by various factors such as technological advancements, regulatory reforms, economic fluctuations, and changing customer preferences. These changes have brought new opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in this industry.
One of the significant changes in the financial services industry is the increasing reliance on technology. The digital revolution has transformed the way financial services are delivered and consumed. Fintech companies have emerged, leveraging technology to disrupt traditional financial services providers. This has resulted in increased competition and the need for traditional financial institutions to adapt and innovate to stay relevant.
Another change in the financial services industry is the evolving regulatory landscape. Governments and regulatory bodies around the world have implemented stringent regulations to safeguard consumers and ensure financial stability. These regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank Act in the United States and the MiFID II directive in the European Union, have increased compliance requirements for financial services firms. Non-compliance can result in severe penalties and reputational damage, making effective risk management essential.
Economic fluctuations also impact the financial services industry. Economic downturns can lead to increased credit risk, market volatility, and liquidity challenges, while economic upturns can present growth opportunities. As the global economy becomes increasingly interconnected, events in one part of the world can have ripple effects on financial markets globally, making risk management more complex and critical.
Lastly, changing customer preferences and behaviors have also impacted the financial services industry. Customers now demand personalized and convenient financial services, with a focus on transparency and trust. This has led to a shift in business models, with a greater emphasis on customer-centricity and digital engagement. Firms need to understand customer preferences and manage reputational risk to maintain customer trust and loyalty.
Challenges in Risk Management in the Financial Services Industry
The evolving landscape of the financial services industry has brought about several challenges in managing risk effectively. Some of the significant challenges include:
Increasing Complexity: The financial services industry is highly complex, with numerous products, services, and processes. Risk managers need to understand the intricacies of various financial instruments, business models, and regulatory requirements to identify and manage risks effectively.
Changing Regulations: The regulatory landscape is constantly evolving, with new regulations being introduced and existing ones amended. Financial services firms need to stay abreast of these changes and ensure compliance, which requires significant resources and expertise.
Cybersecurity Risks: The increasing reliance on technology has also exposed the financial services industry to cybersecurity risks. Cyber threats, such as data breaches and ransomware attacks, can result in financial losses, reputational damage, and regulatory penalties.
Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes, political instability, and sanctions, can have significant impacts on the financial services industry. These events can affect global markets, currencies, and investment portfolios, leading to increased volatility and risk exposure.
Reputation Risk: Reputation is crucial in the financial services industry, and any damage to reputation can have severe consequences. Negative public perception, loss of customer trust, and regulatory scrutiny can all result in significant financial and operational impacts.
Operational Risks: The complex and interconnected nature of the financial services industry also presents operational risks. Operational failures, such as system outages, processing errors, and human errors, can disrupt business operations, cause financial losses, and harm reputation.
Risk of Financial Crime: Financial services firms are also exposed to risks related to financial crime, including money laundering, fraud, and corruption. These risks can arise from internal or external sources and can result in regulatory penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
Risk from Emerging Technologies: The rapid pace of technological advancements, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and cryptocurrency, presents both opportunities and risks for the financial services industry. Firms need to understand the risks associated with emerging technologies and implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate them.
Best Practices for Managing Risk in the Financial Services Industry
Given the challenges and complexities of managing risk in the financial services industry, it is essential for firms to adopt best practices to effectively mitigate risks. Here are some key best practices for managing risk in the financial services industry:
Develop a Robust Risk Management Framework: Financial services firms should establish a comprehensive risk management framework that includes risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting. This framework should be integrated into the firm’s overall strategy, operations, and decision-making processes.
Embrace a Risk Culture: Establishing a strong risk culture is critical for effective risk management. It involves fostering a culture where risk awareness and accountability are embedded in the organisation’s values, behaviours, and practices. This includes promoting open communication, risk transparency, and learning from mistakes.
Stay Abreast of Regulatory Changes: The financial services industry is heavily regulated, and firms need to stay updated with the latest regulatory changes that impact their operations. This includes understanding the implications of regulatory changes, ensuring compliance, and engaging with regulators proactively.
Enhance Cybersecurity Measures: Given the increasing cybersecurity risks, financial services firms should implement robust cybersecurity measures to protect their systems, data, and customer information. This includes regular cybersecurity assessments, employee training, and incident response plans.
Diversify Risk Management Strategies: Financial services firms should adopt a diversified approach to risk management. This includes diversifying investments, customers, and markets to reduce concentration risk. It also involves using risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and derivatives to mitigate risks.
Conduct Comprehensive Due Diligence: Financial services firms should conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering into any business relationships, such as partnerships, acquisitions, or investments. This includes assessing the financial stability, reputation, and compliance of potential business partners to mitigate counterparty risk.
Implement Robust Compliance Programs: Compliance is a critical aspect of risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should establish robust compliance programs that include policies, procedures, and controls to ensure compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and internal policies.
Invest in Technology and Data Analytics: Technology and data analytics can play a significant role in enhancing risk management in the financial services industry. Firms should invest in advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, to identify, assess, and monitor risks effectively.
Continuously Monitor and Update Risk Management Strategies: Risk management is an ongoing process, and firms should continuously monitor and update their risk management strategies to adapt to changing business and market conditions. This includes conducting regular risk assessments, evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and making necessary adjustments as needed.
As the financial services industry continues to evolve, managing risk has become more critical than ever. Firms operating in this industry face various challenges, including increasing complexity, changing regulations, cybersecurity risks, geopolitical risks, reputation risk, operational risks, risk from emerging technologies, and risk from financial crime. However, by adopting best practices such as developing a robust risk management framework, embracing a risk culture, staying abreast of regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and safeguard their operations, reputation, and financial stability.
It is crucial for financial services firms to recognize that risk management is not a one-time activity but an ongoing process that requires constant attention and adaptation. By proactively identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks, firms can reduce the likelihood and impact of potential risk events and ensure their long-term sustainability.
In addition, fostering a strong risk culture within the organisation is essential for effective risk management. This involves creating an environment where risk awareness and accountability are valued, and employees at all levels are encouraged to report risks and concerns without fear of reprisal. A robust risk culture promotes open communication, transparency, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement.
Furthermore, leveraging technology and data analytics can greatly enhance risk management efforts in the financial services industry. Advanced technologies, such as risk management software, data analytics tools, and machine learning algorithms, can enable firms to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in vast amounts of data, allowing for more informed risk assessments and timely risk mitigation actions.
Lastly, financial services firms should stay updated with the latest regulatory changes and engage with regulators proactively. Regulatory requirements are constantly evolving, and firms need to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations to avoid penalties, legal liabilities, and reputational damage. Regular communication and collaboration with regulators can help firms understand the implications of regulatory changes and proactively address any potential compliance gaps.
In conclusion, managing risk is a critical aspect of operating in the financial services industry. With the increasing complexity and evolving landscape of this industry, firms need to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to risk management. By developing a robust risk management framework, fostering a strong risk culture, staying updated with regulatory changes, enhancing cybersecurity measures, diversifying risk management strategies, conducting comprehensive due diligence, implementing robust compliance programs, investing in technology and data analytics, and continuously monitoring and updating risk management strategies, financial services firms can effectively mitigate risks and ensure their long-term success. It is imperative for financial services firms to prioritise risk management and make it an integral part of their strategic planning and decision-making processes. By doing so, they can safeguard their operations, protect their reputation, and maintain the trust of their customers and stakeholders in the ever-changing landscape of the financial services industry.
2008 should have been the watershed moment for the financial services sector and banking in particular to implement systemic changes to incorporate enterprise risk management principles and practices.
FCA and Financial Services Review Into Banking Risk Culture
Financial services companies have continued to bring to market products that have led to claims for compensation. Nonsense of putting the customer first is often uttered in the financial services sector.
The reality is that the financial services sector risk management culture is still systemically broken and it is likely to lead to the next financial crisis. A financial crisis comes along roughly every 10 years. As we look towards 2019 the next financial crisis is overdue.
How will the next financial crisis manifest itself? Not known. Will it happen? Almost certainly. Most countries have not fully recovered from the last financial crisis. Their economies are still very weak. Even the strong are comparatively weak. This means we may never recover from the next financial crisis and so should do more to make sure the next financial crisis is avoided or mitigated.
Most likely cause of the next financial crisis is the compounding and aggregation of financial risk.
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The last financial crisis grew and exploded from the productionisation of simple debt prototype ideas thought up by people who thought they were masters of the world. Despite the new false perception that after ten years we have now paid our dues we are in fact drowning in more unpaid debt than ever.
Unpaid debt will continue to be wrapped up in shiny new marketing material designed to protect the buyers from the toxicity of the core material. Piled high and sold cheap these debt instruments will be combined and recombined. The new for old debt products will build the tower that will be the start of the beginning of the end for many a business in the next financial crisis.
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The Bigger Risk To Financial Services Jobs Is Automation Or Robots Not Brexit
Ignore the threat to financial services industry jobs of Brexit. You should be much more worried about the threat of robots. Job automation is the biggest finance sector threat and opportunity.
Job Automation Risk To Your Financial Sector Job
No doubt. Financial services industry is very important to the UK economy. If financial services jobs were lost other sectors would be affected. Fewer services jobs needed to service those in financial services jobs!
Many jobs in financial services are high paid jobs. Top British bankers are paid much more than elsewhere. Resistance to moving to Germany is as much about personal reasons. The UK economy may or may not suffer after Brexit. Bankers will suffer.
However people in financial services are facing automation existential threat. Never mind moving to Germany your job is going full stop!
FinTech company jobs will be prevalent. Bankers less so. Most financial services jobs can be done faster cheaper better. Robots will be
less emotional
more reliable and
after a few years significantly cheaper
How long do you think the C Suite will keep your job. If job automation is better for bonuses your job is toast!
Existing financial services jobs are like UK miners jobs. The buildings will remain but the people in them will be different. Cyber security and fintech risk managers will be plentiful.
Banks insurers and funds will need cyber experts. They will stop external and internal threats to money.
Fintech risk managers will direct risk appetite and risk tolerance
C suite virtual bankers insurers fund managers will be wealthier
Wealthier investors but more at risk of systemic industry collapse
Software developers will frequent the bars and restaurants. Existing financial services people will be there waiting on tables!
Most existing financial services jobs will be lost to job automation. Do not doubt this for a second!
However it is not all doom and gloom. The key to survive is to move into the new financial services sector jobs. Some new financial services jobs do not exist right now! You must change your skills set to take advantage and survive.
Its not just the top bankers that need worry. Indeed they are the ones most likely to easily morph. Financial services jobs most at risk
Mortgage advice
Financial and investment advice
Insurance advice
Any financial services sector job your current phone app replaces!
Consumers have a choice to use financial services apps and websites. In future the consumer will have no choice. Financial services consumers will not speak to people. People will be gone replaced by job automation. The robots will have taken over the financial services world!
There is no point in complaining. No point arguing with us. Better spending your time reskilling instead. Stop worrying about Brexit. Start retraining to overcome threat of job automation. Learn tech skills not German!
Help for firms required to undertake the Individual Capital Adequacy Assessment Process ICAAP in accordance with the requirements set out in the PRA Rulebook
Under Basel II ICAAP is a new requirement for financial institutions requiring risk assessments including
Pillar I minimum capital requirements;
the extent of total stockholder funds required to meet a firm’s strategy and maintain minimum capital requirements;
ensuring risks of the firm are understood by the board, and that there is sufficient and adequate management of the risks.
ICAAP elements
identification and measurement of the risks;
risk mitigation to lower capital requirements;
stress-testing techniques;
role of the directors of the business and the business management team
Pillar II: the board needs to understand and accept the business risks. Pillar II : requires maintenance of capital ratio especially for regulator satisfaction.
A financial institution must include internal risk drivers that the business have now or on the horizon including fraud, rogue trading, or business strategy mistakes.
Capital Plan : to include all risks including cooperation and collaboration across all business departments taking into account business growth forecasts and maintenance of a capital ratio.
Assess the risks :
Identify risks : List all material risks, interview staff in relevant departments, and assess the probability of risks occurring.
Assess capital : how much do you need?
Forward capital plans : stress test and scenario analyse business plans.
What is on the horizon for your business ? What is your risk profile for the future? What is the gap between the company’s regulatory capital, its actual capital, and the capital it needs to hold for business purposes.
ICAAP should provide you with a capital buffer required from stockholders.
How do you demonstrate how ICAAP is embedded in senior management and executive decision-making.
What KRI’s and KCI’s do you have to update capital assumptions and present these to the board. Make sure your business gets the right balance for the business not just for regulation compliance. Senior managers should understand the positive benefits and use ICAAP to make the business more profitable with less uncertainty.
Get help to prepare and keep an ongoing review of ICAAP reports in UK
Bank of England
The Bank of England says :
“The ICAAP is that part of the Pillar 2 assessment undertaken by firms. The ICAAP should allow firms to assess the level of capital that adequately supports all relevant current and future risks in their business. In undertaking an ICAAP, a firm should be able to ensure that it has appropriate processes in place to ensure compliance with the CRDIV. This requires firms to develop and use appropriate risk management techniques.”
Understanding the Internal Capacity Adequacy Assessment Process
Understand the role, functions, and requirements of the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP).
ICAAP Finance Training Course
Under Pillar 2 of the second Basel accord, an Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process ICAAP is required.
ICAAP consists of internal procedures and systems that ensure that a business has adequate capital resources in the long term to cover all of its material risks. It involves the determination of economic capital as opposed to regulatory capital and is a process that is run in parallel to the regulatory capital requirement determination process.
Economic capital is the capital required to cover all risks that are estimated using internal risk models of the bank. ICAAP should be an integral part of the business risk management process and must be embedded within the organisation. Senior management and the Board of Directors (BOD) should be supportive and fully engaged in the process curves for interest rate derivatives.
Current interest rate in UK is 0.25 percent but this is set to rise in 2017
If the Bank of England pushes up UK interest rate, lenders will follow suit and it will cost you more money to buy a house build that extension lease a new car or invest in your business.
17th October 2017 UK Inflation Rises Even Further Beyond Bank of England Target of 2 percent
UK’s inflation reached 3 percent in September 50 percent higher than targeted according to the Office for National Statistics ONS.
3 percent is the UKs highest inflation level in since April 2012. This is a continuation a rising inflation trend in the UK. This validates the expectation of a UK interest rate hike in November 2017 especially as rising UK inflation should herald rising wages.
Pensioners will definitely win from September’s increase in inflation. UK state pension is linked to September’s inflation rate and this means pensioners will get a 3 percent wage rise next April 2018. The triple lock on pensions means that pensioners are guaranteed a minimum increase each year by whichever is the highest of Septembers inflation rate average earnings growth or 2.5 percent.
If you are planning on borrowing money in UK get in now whilst lenders rates are at their lowest
Could UK interest rates fall even further? Of course they could! Will they? Not on your nelly!
UK interest rate is currently at its lowest. The only way is up but when will they rise? They should have risen by now and as each day passes the likelihood of an increase in interest rate in UK increases.
Currently the UK manufacturing sector is selling more than it has ever done since 1988. Exports are at their highest since 1995. The UK manufacturing sector is trying to recruit more people.
Unemployment is at its lowest rate since the 1970s. Employment rate is at its highest ever. Millions of job vacancies are unfilled. Employers will have to increase pay to retain and attract staff and this will push inflation up higher.
Inflation is running at 2.9 percent and is probably already at 3.0 percent. The Bank of England has a KPI to trigger interest rate increases. Its 2.0 percent. UK inflation is currently 50 percent higher than the optimal inflation rate of 2.0 percent and if the Governor of the Bank of England was a balanced analyst he would know that he needs to help the Monetary Policy Committee to increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent in 2017.
Mr Carney has today admitted UK businesses are investing more as the global economy is set to boom. The UK economy will probably grow at least as fast as 2016 and by the end of 2017 growth in UK will be a healthy 2.0 percent.
Increasing UK interest rate will support the value of the UK pound and this will make it slightly harder to export and slightly easier to import to UK which will help control inflation.
The UK needs to prepare for the next financial disaster that the financial services industry cook’s up. Part of the preparation is increasing interest rate towards the long-term UK average of 5.0 percent yes 5.0 percent not 0.5 percent. Even if the Bank of England did increase UK interest rate to 0.5 percent it would still be at a rate that is a tenth of the normal for the UK. Thats how far interest rates will go and it will go relatively fast to stop consumer bubble like that in car sales by finance.
So if you want to borrow money in the UK you will never get a better time to borrow than now. Mr Carney flip flops about when it comes to monetary guidance. One minute the economic data points to a UK interest rate rise the next Mr Carney thinks the same data points to maintaining UK interest rate, or even cutting UK interest rate. Mr Carney will soon be going on a mid career break with Mrs May. She will bore him to death about her policy of a strong and stable government, and he can bore her about his kangeroo petrol monetary guidance policy.
The new and enlightened and emboldened MPC should increase UK interest rate this year. If the MPC doesn’t then we need a new MPC.
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UK Pension Liabilities In Private Sector Public Sector and Not For Profit Sector Are Out Of Control
Why are the systems meant to protect those saving for retirement so inadequate? You might say they are underfunded rather than unfunded until you see how much underfunding there is and then you might agree that really pensions are unfunded!
Pension News Headlines Risk Analysis and Reviews
18th March 2018 In Future UK Employees Pensions Maybe Better Protected
Avoiding or abusing pension responsibilities maybe made a crime under plans to crack down on business leaders who fail to comply with their responsibilities to protect pensions and pensioners in UK.
The UK’s Insolvency Service will also be given extra powers to help protect employees from negligent corporate business decision makers who put pension schemes at risk.
22nd January 2018 UK Prime Minister May Says UK Will Stop Abuse Of Pension Schemes By Executives and Shareholders
The scandal of continuous underfunding of UK pensions and the abuse of pension provision in the UK has been highlighted once again by the collapse of the UK’s second biggest construction company Carillion. Some 28,000 pensioners are likely to face reduced pension payments due to the collapse of Carillion with perhaps a £1 billion pension hole where Carillions money should be.
Instead of addressing the pension hole Carillion executives chose to boost the performance of the firm by underfunding the pension pot paying higher dividends and paying themselves larger bonuses than they would otherwise have been entitled to. Carillion pensioners will transfer to the Pension Protection Fund after the collapse of Carillion but many pensioners many pension members out of pocket when their pension is likely to be cut.
The UK Prime Minister says the UK will clamp down on executives who line their own pockets while not protecting workers pensions.
New rules in the spring of 2018 will aim to deal with executives who threaten worker’s pensions in order to benefit personally from bigger bonuses or rewards.
However Mrs May said last year after the BHS scandal that she would tackle executive abuse to pension contributions with no progress to date.
27th June 2017 UK Pension Regulator published its report into a deal under which Philip Green paid £363m to BHS pension scheme
The Pension Regulator says the main purpose in selling BHS was to prevent taking on liability for the BHS pension scheme. The Pension Regulator says that under Mr Greens watch the BHS pension fund had moved from a surplus into a deficit. However after Mr Greens personal recent substantial contribution BHS pension fund now has a £100m surplus.
However what is clear is that pension fund risk management is highly inadequate. Periodically massive pension fund shortfalls materialise into real financial loss to pensioners. This will continue until legislation corrects the inadequacy of the present regulatory control and monitoring. Perhaps the Pension Regulator could also do its job better. It needs to show its teeth earlier.
Citibank Report 2016
According to Citibank, the 20 largest OECD countries alone owe $78 trillion to their public sector pension funds funding for pay-as-you-go and defined benefit public pensions.
Do you pay into a private pension in UK? Your employer is not! Overall private pension funding in UK is only up to around two-thirds of what is needed. Around three quarters of a trillion pounds extra is needed to fully fund private UK pensions!
Where is this money going to come from to make sure you get your pension when you retire?
Carillion BHS Steelworkers et al are not the only ones who are worried about their retirement money!
Too many people in the UK who think they are saving for their retirement via a pension have been let down and will continue to be let down
Unfunded public sector pensions make up two-thirds of the £2 trillion UK pension liabilities. Private sector pension funds should hopefully become less of an issue as private pension funds or closed to new members and subsequently closed down altogether. However BHS has shown how private pension funds can throw up real problems for those saving for retirement or in retirement.
Why has the UK got saving for retirement so badly wrong?
Unfunded state pensions are the legacy of our fathers and mothers. They have failed to grasp the nettle of saving for retirement and have left a mess to the next generation in the UK whilst pocketing relatively generous pensions for themselves. This is compounded by unfunded central and local government employee pensions.
Public sector pensions are essentially like illegal Ponzi schemes where people think they are investing in their future retirement, but largely they are paying the pensions of those who are retired in UK now. They are really paying money with little more than a hope that the young of today will pay their pension when they retire. However there is no guarantee that the young of today and government’s of the future will feel inclined to pay for retired people’s lifestyles they have no hope of matching when the young eventually retire. The main risk control measure seems to be increasing the state retirement age. And so it continues.
Corrupt business leaders are also failing to pay into private pensions to fund the pension of many people in private sector funds. They seem to be hoping that they will get away with it and someone else will pick up the tab which is normally the retired person who did pay their fair share into the pension fund.
The pension scandal is yet more evidence of the failure of risk management, corporate governance and compliance to create a fair society and corporate culture. A demographic time bomb will soon explode but at the moment successive UK governments are happy to pass the parcel in the hope that the music doesn’t stop when they are in charge.
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Dealing with reckless management of UK pension schemes
How do you manage financial services industry better to avoid another financial crisis? What is fair and reasonable in the delivery of financial services? What must Treating Customers Fairly TCF really look like?
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Financial Services Industry Risk Management
Management of risk in financial services industry.
Scores of bankers have been jailed for their part in the financial crisis but the rest of the world should hang its head in shame for its lack of demonstration of accountability for actions and inaction in face of corporate risk
Financial services industry leaders not just bankers were highly culpable for the financial crisis upon which people committed suicide and a lost their shirts. Financial leaders should lose their liberty.
The next financial crisis is just around the corner. We have seen many incidents since the financial crisis that haven’t quite been systemic risk events but they have cost financial services companys billions in fines for poor and deliberate malpractice. Financial services leaders haven’t learnt their lesson. They are just paying lip-service to good corporate governance. Only the real threat of the jail will stop the next financial crisis happening.
Not only have the culprits for the financial crisis got away with it, they have gone on to be leaders in the financial services industry or other leading businesses.
From leading bankers to leading politicians to leading regulators to leading credit rating agency leaders to leading central bankers they have all prospered despite the financial crisis and many have gone from causing the financial crisis to other positions of power without being held to account for their actions or inaction.
There has been limited tightening of global financial services regulations but the ultimate sanction of losing your liberty is still highly unlikely. It still more likely that financial services leaders will depart their employer with handsome pay-offs and pension packages rather than serving time in a USA or UK jail.
Until individual financial services industry leaders face and are convicted of criminal prosecutions business leaders will continue to lead their employers to hefty financial penalties and even liquidation. If you kill someone at work, you at least have some real chance of going to jail. If you kill a corporate entity, you will almost certainly not go to jail in UK and USA. Appearing in court to face charges is not the same as losing your liberty for 7 to 10 years.
European countries have been a little more robust at jailing the guilty but only a few can be proud of their resolve to improve corporate governance in practice.
Financial Services Industry Risk News Headlines Industry Analysis and Risk Reviews
15th October 2019 Reckless Business Leaders Who Mismanage Pension Schemes May Face Up To 7 Years In Jail Under New UK Legislation.
The Pension Schemes Bill will bring in a new sentence of up to seven years in prison for business leaders who are reckless in the management of their pension schemes.
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20th June 2017 SFO charges former Barclays chief executive John Varley and three others Roger Jenkins Tom Kalaris and Richard Boath. After a five-year investigation into the £12bn bailout fundraising recapitalisation of Barclays bank by Qatar
Barclays strategy was to go to Qatar for money instead of UK government. The bank and the ex-bank executives will officially respond to SFO charges on 3rd July. The charges include conspiracy to commit fraud by false representation in relation to a fundraising in June 2008. The ex bank executives are facing potential jail of up to 10 years if convicted.
Other charges for some of those accused and the bank include providing unlawful financial assistance through a loan.
Barclays said it was considering its position in relation to these developments and awaiting further details of the charges.