Global Economic Tsunami

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Economic Forecast 2024

Risk Management for Business Leaders in the Face of Lower Economic Growth and a Softening Jobs Market in the USA, EU, and UK in 2024

Keith Lewis 6 November 2023

The global economy is facing a number of headwinds in 2023, including the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, high inflation, and rising interest rates. These factors are expected to lead to lower economic growth and a softening jobs market in the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom in 2024.

Business leaders need to be prepared for these challenges and take steps to mitigate the risks to their businesses. In this article, we will provide an overview of the economic outlook for 2024 and offer advice on risk management for business leaders.

Economic Outlook for 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (before taking into account war in Gaza) has forecast that global economic growth will slow to 3.2% in 2024, down from 3.6% in 2023. This is the slowest pace of growth since the global financial crisis in 2009.

The IMF expects the US economy to grow by 1.7% in 2024, down from 2.3% in 2023. The EU economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2024, down from 2.6% in 2023. The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2024, down from 2.2% in 2023.

The slowdown in economic growth is expected to lead to a softening of the jobs market. The IMF expects the unemployment rate in the US to rise to 4.0% in 2024, up from 3.7% in 2023. The unemployment rate in the EU is expected to rise to 7.0% in 2024, up from 6.7% in 2023. The unemployment rate in the UK is expected to rise to 4.5% in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2023.

Risk Management Advice for Business Leaders

In light of the economic outlook, business leaders need to be prepared for the following risks:

  • Lower demand for goods and services: As economic growth slows, consumers and businesses are likely to spend less. This could lead to lower sales and profits for businesses.
  • Softening jobs market: As the unemployment rate rises,businesses may have difficulty finding and retaining qualified workers. This could lead to higher labour costs and disruptions to operations.
  • Rising interest rates: Central banks are raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money and invest in growth.
  • Supply chain disruptions: The ongoing war in Ukraine (and new war in Gaza) and other factors have caused disruptions to global supply chains. This could make it difficult for businesses to obtain the materials and components they need to produce their goods and services.

Business leaders can take a number of steps to mitigate these risks, including:

  • Diversify their customer base and product mix: This will help to reduce their reliance on any one customer or product line.
  • Invest in technology and automation: This can help to improve efficiency and productivity, and reduce labor costs.
  • Lock in long-term contracts with suppliers: This can help to mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions and price increases.
  • Build up their cash reserves: This will give them a financial cushion to weather any downturns in the economy.

In addition to these general risk management measures, business leaders should also consider the specific risks that are relevant to their industry and sector. For example, businesses in the retail and hospitality sectors may be more vulnerable to lower consumer spending. Businesses in the manufacturing sector may be more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

By taking the necessary steps to manage risks, business leaders can increase their chances of success in 2024 and beyond.

Specific Risk Management Strategies for Different Industries

In addition to the general risk management measures outlined above, there are some specific strategies that business leaders in different industries can take to mitigate the risks of lower economic growth and a softening jobs market in 2024.

Retail: Retail businesses can focus on increasing sales through online channels, offering discounts and promotions, and improving customer service. They can also reduce costs by streamlining their operations and negotiating better deals with suppliers.

Hospitality: Hospitality businesses can focus on attracting and retaining tourists, offering special packages and promotions, and improving the customer experience. They can also reduce costs by streamlining their operations and negotiating better deals with suppliers.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing businesses can focus on increasing productivity, reducing costs, and diversifying their product mix. They can also mitigate supply chain risks by building

Will you be unscathed from, or even benefit from, global financial tsunami?

A global economic tsunami is breaking. The impact will increase substantial in 2023. This global economic tsunami was triggered in spring of 2020. An economic atomic bomb was set-off deliberately, accidentally or carelessly by central banks and national governments around the world to protect businesses from Covid pandemic. The medicine has proven to be worse than the illness. Perhaps if the medicine was moderated the global financial tsunami we are just starting to suffer from would not have been created. Instead the world become addicted and then seemingly oblivious to the impeding danger of uncontrolled money printing and quantitative easing QE and cheap money swamping the global economy.

How likely is a global economic collapse?

The best we can hope for is a long deep depression not short shallow recession. If we are lucky we will avoid global economic collapse. However, it is probably 60:40 that a global economic collapse will happen. We are in a bad place from which we can recover at present, but poor decision-making from here will turn a bad situation into a global economic collapse.

How did we get here?

  1. Central banks slashed interest rates to near zero and even negative in some countries and printed fake money out of thin air professionally called QE. Once the sluice gates were opened and cheap to free money was splashed everywhere, inflation was inevitable – too much money and too little supply after supply chains were cut or severely restricted. Our central bankers and politicians tried to convince us printing more money in two years than has ever been printed ever before was creating just transitory inflation spikes. However, the runaway money printing has created difficult to control embedded inflation caused largely by business leaders profiteering. Business profits in 2021 2022 are off the scale and now employees want their share to compensate for loss of income in real terms against inflation and we are facing a winter of discontent at best in some countries, and in others, riots in the streets.
  2. The next phase following increased business profits and resentful employees wanting higher pay will morph into business cuts and increased layoffs including rising unemployment and higher business closures.
  3. The global economic tsunami is hitting some shores already. In Cryptoland we have seen the collapse of the second biggest crypto exchange or marketplace in the world. In the Bankingland firms like Credit Suisse could yet collapse. In the global financial tsunami in 2008 Lehmann Bros bank collapsed and was a high-profile casualty of the financial sector self-induced global financial crisis. Credit Suisse is a much bigger bank than Lehmann Bros bank. The collapse of Credit Suisse would induce global economic collapse. In the 2008 global financial tsunami, banks like Royal Bank Of Scotland RBS were considered too big to fail and became UK government owned (something like 87% owned). Slowly RBS is being sold off by the UK government but some 14 years later RBS has still not recovered. In fact, it kinda never recovered as it has been rebranded as Natwest bank. The RBS bank brand “too big to fail” washed away in the global financial crisis of 2008. Which big financial sector brands will be washed away by the global financial tsunami 2022?
  4. Retail investors, the little people, are like the people you see in real tsunami videos. They have been running about, bemused by the water initially disappearing from the beach or port. Retail investors have bought assets in 2021 2022 thinking that this is a buying opportunity that could setup up their investment for life. In fact, 2023 will be the buying opportunity of a life for investing in your future after the tsunami has wiped out money zombie companies unable to access cheap money any more. The remaining businesses will be on offer at sale prices. Retail investors have been or are about to be wiped out. S&P500 companies will make very little profit in 2023, if any, and their capitalisation will fall still further than a bad 2022 has hit share values. Institutional investors will hoover up cheap stocks and benefit in 2025 when shares will skyrocket once again, but many retail investors will have drowned in the global financial tsunami.
  5. Propertyland will be a slower burn, or partial drowning, in that some parts of world will go under into negative territory whilst other parts of the world will tread water for a year or two before recovering. Property prices are falling in some parts of the world. Some parts will experience a property price correction, but others will suffer property price collapse.
  6. Manufacturingland and Retailland are further inshore from the beach. When the global financial tsunami breaks in 2023 many businesses will simply be washed away never to recover. Others will rebuild and prosper with less competition to eat into profit.

Some politicians in the likes of USA try to tell you that inflation is no biggy! That should really be interpreted as the tsunami wave to hit in 2023 is no longer 100 feet high – it’s only 90 feet high! Will such a drop protect your business?

In fact, whilst official inflation figures may well drop slightly in 2023, some inflation like food inflation is unlikely to fall and could even increase as the effects of things like war in Ukraine, less fertilisation of the soil due to cost of fertilsers and policymakers restricting farmers from farming for climate protection reasons feed into the food supply chain in 2023.

How do we dig ourselves out of this hole we dug for ourselves or how does your business stop itself from falling into the hole with everyone else?

Relief from inflation will not happen until 2024 – if ever. It is unlikely that we will ever undershoot central bank interest rate targets of 2 percent ever again, or at least for decades.

You will need to set your business strategy to navigate a more difficult year in 2023 than 2022 was. Certain things outside of your control could dramatically make life easier in 2023 than can be realistically anticipated just now. Russia and Ukraine could agree a peace deal in 2023 for example. Santa is unlikely to bring this before the end of 2022 and there is little sign that 2023 will bring peace to these countries or the rest of the world. Even if the fighting was to stop now, the global economic pain will continue throughout 2023.

What is within your control to manage the risks to your business in 2023?

Get help to identify assess and manage your business risks in 2023 and beyond. Email [email protected] for more information or follow us via your favourite social media account click here.

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Sometimes we have to accept the risks our businesses face to achieve our goals. Taking no action to control the risks does not mean you have not managed the risk. It means you have identified and assessed it and proactively choose to accept it as the risk is within your risk tolerance and appetite for risk.

The other extreme is that you avoid the risk identified. The risk is beyond your risk tolerance and appetite for risk to pursuance of your business objectives.

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UK Unfunded Pension Liabilities

UK Pension Liabilities In Private Sector Public Sector and Not For Profit Sector Are Out Of Control

Why are the systems meant to protect those saving for retirement so inadequate? You might say they are underfunded rather than unfunded until you see how much underfunding there is and then you might agree that really pensions are unfunded!

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18th March 2018 In Future UK Employees Pensions Maybe Better Protected

Avoiding or abusing pension responsibilities maybe made a crime under plans to crack down on business leaders who fail to comply with their responsibilities to protect pensions and pensioners in UK.

The UK’s Insolvency Service will also be given extra powers to help protect employees from negligent corporate business decision makers who put pension schemes at risk.

22nd January 2018 UK Prime Minister May Says UK Will Stop Abuse Of Pension Schemes By Executives and Shareholders

The scandal of continuous underfunding of UK pensions and the abuse of pension provision in the UK has been highlighted once again by the collapse of the UK’s second biggest construction company Carillion. Some 28,000 pensioners are likely to face reduced pension payments due to the collapse of Carillion with perhaps a £1 billion pension hole where Carillions money should be.

Instead of addressing the pension hole Carillion executives chose to boost the performance of the firm by underfunding the pension pot paying higher dividends and paying themselves larger bonuses than they would otherwise have been entitled to. Carillion pensioners will transfer to the Pension Protection Fund after the collapse of Carillion but many pensioners many pension members out of pocket when their pension is likely to be cut.

The UK Prime Minister says the UK will clamp down on executives who line their own pockets while not protecting workers pensions.

New rules in the spring of 2018 will aim to deal with executives who threaten worker’s pensions in order to benefit personally from bigger bonuses or rewards.

However Mrs May said last year after the BHS scandal that she would tackle executive abuse to pension contributions with no progress to date.

27th June 2017 UK Pension Regulator published its report into a deal under which Philip Green paid £363m to BHS pension scheme

The Pension Regulator says the main purpose in selling BHS was to prevent taking on liability for the BHS pension scheme. The Pension Regulator says that under Mr Greens watch the BHS pension fund had moved from a surplus into a deficit. However after Mr Greens personal recent substantial contribution BHS pension fund now has a £100m surplus.

However what is clear is that pension fund risk management is highly inadequate. Periodically massive pension fund shortfalls materialise into real financial loss to pensioners. This will continue until legislation corrects the inadequacy of the present regulatory control and monitoring. Perhaps the Pension Regulator could also do its job better. It needs to show its teeth earlier.

Citibank Report 2016

According to Citibank, the 20 largest OECD countries alone owe $78 trillion to their public sector pension funds funding for pay-as-you-go and defined benefit public pensions.

Do you pay into a private pension in UK? Your employer is not! Overall private pension funding in UK is only up to around two-thirds of what is needed. Around three quarters of a trillion pounds extra is needed to fully fund private UK pensions!

Where is this money going to come from to make sure you get your pension when you retire?

Carillion BHS Steelworkers et al are not the only ones who are worried about their retirement money!

Too many people in the UK who think they are saving for their retirement via a pension have been let down and will continue to be let down

People saving for their retirement and who are in retirement have lost money due to the inadequate management and protection of pension funds in the UK.

Unfunded public sector pensions make up two-thirds of the £2 trillion UK pension liabilities. Private sector pension funds should hopefully become less of an issue as private pension funds or closed to new members and subsequently closed down altogether. However BHS has shown how private pension funds can throw up real problems for those saving for retirement or in retirement.

Why has the UK got saving for retirement so badly wrong?

Unfunded state pensions are the legacy of our fathers and mothers. They have failed to grasp the nettle of saving for retirement and have left a mess to the next generation in the UK whilst pocketing relatively generous pensions for themselves. This is compounded by unfunded central and local government employee pensions.

Public sector pensions are essentially like illegal Ponzi schemes where people think they are investing in their future retirement, but largely they are paying the pensions of those who are retired in UK now. They are really paying money with little more than a hope that the young of today will pay their pension when they retire. However there is no guarantee that the young of today and government’s of the future will feel inclined to pay for retired people’s lifestyles they have no hope of matching when the young eventually retire. The main risk control measure seems to be increasing the state retirement age. And so it continues.

Corrupt business leaders are also failing to pay into private pensions to fund the pension of many people in private sector funds. They seem to be hoping that they will get away with it and someone else will pick up the tab which is normally the retired person who did pay their fair share into the pension fund.

The pension scandal is yet more evidence of the failure of risk management, corporate governance and compliance to create a fair society and corporate culture. A demographic time bomb will soon explode but at the moment successive UK governments are happy to pass the parcel in the hope that the music doesn’t stop when they are in charge.

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UK public sector and private sector pension funds are seriously underfunded so keep up to date with developments to see if you will get your pension in UK when you retire enter code #PensionCrisis