UK Budget 2024

What is in the UK Budget 2024

UK Budget Announcement Summary

Find out what the latest UK budget means for you and your business.

£25 billion extra costs for UK business taxes and National Insurance contributions from employers from April 2025.

Record increases in public spending and taxes that will produce highest ever tax burden in UK. Allegedly due in part to £22 billion black hole from last government. £40 billion increase in UK taxes – biggest ever in cash terms. Increase in spending is over £70 billion over course of parliament, partly funded by tax increases and most of the rest by extra borrowing (or cutting government spending for some departments in real terms). Despite spending increases forecasts for long term growth being very low -only 1 to 2 percent GDP and a downgrade from where previously forecast to grow in longer term. Bank of England may have to delay possible interest rate cut due to this government borrowing record amounts to inject in short term into the economy without producing any real extra growth in economy long term.

Key Points Of UK Budget 2024

  • Funding for 2 scandals : Infected Blood Scandal (£11.8 billion) and Post Office Horizon Scandal (£1.8 billion).
  • Office for Budget Responsibility OBR says inflation around 2.5% inflation for next couple of years.
  • OBR says UK GDP will be 1.1% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Anything after that is just fairytale story – and not even a good one!
  • Fiscal rules to include Stability Rule: UK will not borrow to fund day to day spending with longer term conditions. Around £26 billion deficit for couple of years.
  • Some government departments will have less money to spend in real terms due to inflation.

Tax

  • Minimum Wage : 6.7% increase in minimum wage. Over-21s to rise from £11.44 to £12.21 per hour from April 2025. Rate for 18-21-year-olds to go up from £8.60 to £10.
  • Carers Allowance to increase, increasing the amount carers can earn before they lose carer’s allowance – can earn up to £10000 a year without losing any of allowance.
  • Increasing protection of people from unfair dismissal
  • Triple Lock Pensions : to be protected – 4.1% increase in pensions over next couple of years.
  • Fuel Duty : Fuel duty to freeze for another year so the 5p cut to fuel duty due to end April 2025 will continue to April 2026.
  • National Insurance : keep National Insurance at same level on personal tax levels.
  • Employers National Insurance : Rate to increase by 1.2 % to 15% and lowered the level at which it becomes payable by employers – from £9100 to £5000.
  • Small Business : increasing employment allowance re Employer’s National Insurance.
  • Inheritance Tax : Inheritance tax threshold freeze extended by further 2 years to 2030. Changes to what is included which will increase tax on some people. Unspent pension pots also subject to the tax from 2027. Exemptions when inheriting farmland to be made less generous thereby increase tax on farming in UK.
  • Capital Gains Tax : increase from 10% to 18% at lower rate and from 20% to 24% at higher rate. Capital gains on residential properties unchanged at 18% and 24% respectively.
  • Tobacco: tax to increase by 2% above inflation and 10% above inflation for hand-rolling tobacco.
  • Vaping : New tax of £2.20 per 10ml of vaping liquid from October 2026.
  • Soft Drinks Duty : to review thresholds for sugar tax on soft drinks and consider extending it to include “milk-based” beverages.
  • Road Tax : From April 2025 electric vehicles will start paying road tax.The amount levied on new EV owners will remain frozen at £10 for their first year “to support the take-up of electric vehicles”. After that point, they will pay a standard yearly amount based on the lowest existing category – currently about £190 – that will increase in line with retail price inflation. Petrol, diesel and hybrid drivers face significant increases.
  • Air Passenger Duty : to increase £2 per person on economy flights. Private Jets duty to increase by 50%.
  • Business Rates : 75% discount on rates till April 2025 will reduce to 40% from April 2025.
  • Alcohol Duty : to rise in line with RPI the higher measure of inflation but cutting draft duty by 1.7% – equivalent of reduction of 1p on pint.
  • Corporation Tax : to stay at 25% until next election. Paid on taxable profits over £250,000.
  • Abolish Non Dom Tax
  • Fund Management :
  • Stamp Duty : increasing tax on second homes from tomorrow from 2% to 5%.
  • Levy on oil and gas industry to increase.
  • VAT to be added to private school fees from April 2025.
  • Income Tax : no extension of threshold freeze on income tax and National Insurance from 2028 which will rise in line with inflation.

Spending

  • Spending to increase by 1.1%
  • Tripling funding in Breakfast Clubs
  • Extra £300 million for Further Education
  • Strategic Defence Review published next year but funding increase in interim.
  • Mayors : increase in funding and increased autonomy on spending.
  • Devolved Nations : some tinkering around the edges on funding.

Investment

  • Public Investment : changing rules to new Investment Rule.
  • Capital Spending : must secure ROI at least as high as on Gilts.
  • Aerospace, Automotive, Life Sciences, Creative industries to receive investment uplift.
  • Broadband to get more funding.
  • Funding for house building including Affordable Housing including local authorities retaining 100% of receipts on council home sales. Social housing providers to be allowed to increase rents above inflation.
  • Money to fund removal of cladding.
  • Transport : increasing investment. Funding for upgrades. HS2 changes to include link to London Euston. Several other new transport projects to begin. Commitment to deliver upgrade to trans-Pennine rail line between York and Manchester running via Leeds and Huddersfield.
  • Potholes : increase investment funding.
  • Bus Cap : £2 cap on single bus fares in England to rise to £3 from January 2025.
  • New Green Projects : extra investment
  • Warm Homes Plan : extra investment
  • Education Buildings : increasing funding by £6.7 billion and increasing budget for school maintenance budget.
  • NHS : increasing funding by £22.6 billion  for day to day spending plus funding for Capital Spending on NHS buildings plant and equipment. Waiting times to be no more than 18 weeks.

Come back for more updates following additional business risk analysis of UK Budget 2024.

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Global Markets News : China US and Europe Pot Kettle Black

Protecting one’s own market seems to lead to calling out others for your own crimes!

China’s Overcapacity and Deflation:

  • Issue: China possesses significant excess production capacity in certain industries like steel, aluminum, and solar panels. This overcapacity can lead to downward pressure on prices, potentially causing “deflationary exports” if Chinese companies sell goods below cost in international markets.
  • Arguments:
    • Proponents:
      • Overcapacity puts excessive pressure on global prices, hurting competitors and hindering fair trade.
      • Deflationary exports harm other economies, especially developing nations, undermining domestic industries.
      • China’s government subsidies exacerbate the problem, giving Chinese companies an unfair advantage.
    • Opponents:
      • Excess capacity isn’t unique to China; other countries face similar challenges in different sectors.
      • Global market forces, not just China, drive price fluctuations.
      • Accusations of “dumping” often lack concrete evidence, and Chinese prices might reflect lower production costs.

Impact on Western Markets:

  • Concerns: Deflationary Chinese exports could dampen inflation in Western economies, potentially hindering recovery from economic downturns.
  • Policies:
    • Inflation Reduction Act (US): Aims to boost domestic green energy production, potentially incentivising US companies over foreign competitors.
    • Green Deals (Europe): Similar focus on domestic green industries, raising concerns about protectionism.
  • Arguments:
    • Proponents: These policies incentivise domestic innovation and job creation, contributing to long-term economic stability.
    • Opponents: Such policies could restrict fair trade and hinder global efforts towards sustainability.

Comparison with Southeast Asia:

  • Southeast Asian nations: Facing challenges in exporting to Western markets due to factors like infrastructure limitations, trade barriers, and differing regulatory environments.
  • Arguments:
    • Proponents: Western policies favouring domestic green industries create an uneven playing field, disadvantageing Southeast Asian producers.
    • Opponents: Southeast Asian nations also need to focus on internal reforms to improve competitiveness and meet Western standards.

Key Considerations:

  • The issue is complex, with valid arguments on both sides.
  • Addressing overcapacity requires multifaceted solutions, including market-based reforms, industrial restructuring, and international cooperation.
  • Trade policies should balance legitimate concerns about unfair competition with the need for open and fair global markets.
  • Collaboration between all stakeholders, including governments, businesses, and civil society, is crucial for developing sustainable and equitable trade practices.

Additional Points:

  • The situation is dynamic, with ongoing efforts to address overcapacity and deflationary concerns in China.
  • The impact of Western policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and Green Deals is yet to be fully realised.
  • Continuous dialogue and policy adjustments are necessary to ensure a balanced and mutually beneficial global trade environment.

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The Deflationary Dance: China’s Overcapacity, Western Subsidies, and the Global Market Tug-of-War

China’s economic rise has been accompanied by a shadow: concerns about its industrial overcapacity and its potential to exacerbate global deflation through “dumping” cheap goods in international markets. This narrative often paints China as the sole culprit, ignoring similar practices and policies employed by Western nations, particularly the United States and Europe, that can also distort the global market and limit opportunities for developing economies. This article delves into the complex interplay of these factors, examining the arguments for and against China’s alleged deflationary threat and exploring the parallel policies in the West that create similar challenges for developing countries.

The Overcapacity Argument:

China’s rapid economic growth in recent decades has led to significant investment in various industries, particularly heavy industries like steel, shipbuilding, and aluminum. This investment boom resulted in substantial overcapacity, where production exceeds demand. Critics argue that excess production leads to price drops, as Chinese companies compete on price rather than quality, flooding global markets with unfairly cheap goods. This, they claim, can harm domestic industries in other countries, hindering their growth and competitiveness.

The “Dumping” Debate:

The accusation of “dumping” refers to selling goods below their cost of production in foreign markets. While China has faced anti-dumping investigations in the past, the evidence for systematic dumping is contested. Some argue that Chinese companies are simply more efficient and have lower production costs due to factors like economies of scale and government subsidies. Others point out that anti-dumping measures often protect inefficient domestic industries in developed countries, rather than promoting fair competition.

Beyond the Chinese Factor:

The narrative of China as the sole culprit conveniently overlooks similar practices and policies in the West. The United States, for example, has implemented the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides significant subsidies for domestic clean energy production. This policy, while aimed at reducing carbon emissions, also disadvantages foreign competitors, particularly those in developing countries with comparable clean energy technologies.

Similarly, the European Union’s Green Deal, which incentivises the transition to a more sustainable economy, can create barriers for developing economies that lack the resources to comply with its strict environmental regulations. These protectionist measures limit market access for developing countries, hindering their potential to export and participate in the global green economy.

The Global Market Tug-of-War:

The accusations against China’s overcapacity and “dumping” often ignore the broader context of globalised trade and competition. The global market is a complex web of interconnected economies, where each player seeks to maximise its own advantage. While China’s overcapacity may pose challenges, it is not the only factor contributing to global deflationary pressures.

Furthermore, the focus on China deflects attention from the need for global cooperation and coordinated efforts to address broader issues like overproduction, stagnant wages, and income inequality. These are systemic problems that require solutions beyond simply blaming individual countries or industries.

Moving Beyond the Blame Game:

Instead of engaging in a blame game, the international community should focus on finding constructive solutions that address the underlying issues of overproduction, market distortions, and unequal access to resources. This requires:

  • Transparency and accountability: All countries, including China, the United States, and the European Union, should be transparent about their trade practices and subsidies, and be held accountable for unfair trade practices.
  • Multilateral cooperation: International organisations like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) need to be strengthened to facilitate fair and open trade, while also addressing concerns about dumping and trade distortions.
  • Focus on sustainable development: Global efforts should focus on promoting sustainable development practices that create a level playing field for all countries, regardless of their stage of development. This includes investing in clean energy technologies, promoting innovation, and ensuring equitable access to resources.

Conclusion:

The issue of China’s overcapacity and its potential impact on global deflation is complex and multifaceted. While concerns about unfair trade practices are legitimate, it is crucial to avoid simplistic narratives that scapegoat individual countries. Instead, a more nuanced understanding is needed, acknowledging the role of similar policies in the West and focusing on finding cooperative solutions that benefit all players in the global market. Only through multilateral cooperation and a commitment to sustainable development can we ensure a level playing field for all and create a more prosperous and equitable future for the global economy.

Enterprise risk management theory and practice

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Objectives of Enterprise Risk Management ERM

Enterprise risk management theory and practice can help to boost your business. Are you interested in enterprise risk management theory and practice? Keep up to date with latest enterprise risk management theory and practice news opinions and reviews. Network with enterprise risk management experts and top business leaders locally and globally.

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Enterprise risk management theory and practice is an holistic approach to business decision making. It is designed to make the best use of business resources.

  • Achieve enterprise objectives more easily and cost effectively by reducing the impact of uncertainty.
  • Improve business decision making when looking at business strategy operational management and project management.
  • Engage the whole workforce in the task of making the enterprise a success.

Learn strategies to develop collaboration with enterprise risk management development within your business. Create an efficient risk management framework and risk assessment process you can communicate clearly to all employees to embed ERM more effectively.

Enterprise risk management creates value for all stakeholders in the enterprise including customers employees management team and owners.

Assess enterprise threats opportunities and their impact on enterprise objectives to use existing resources more cost effectively to achieve success more quickly and easily with less uncertainty. 

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Guide To Enterprise Risk Management

In today’s dynamic and interconnected business landscape, managing risks has become an essential aspect of successful enterprise management. Organisations face a wide range of risks, including financial, operational, strategic, and reputational risks, which can significantly impact their ability to achieve objectives and thrive in a competitive environment. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) provides a comprehensive framework and process for identifying, assessing, and mitigating these risks to ensure sustainable growth and resilience. This article serves as a guide to understanding and implementing ERM within organisations.

  1. Understanding Enterprise Risk Management:

Enterprise Risk Management is a strategic approach that enables organisations to proactively identify, assess, and manage risks across all levels and functions. It involves the systematic integration of risk management practices into an organisation’s decision-making processes, governance structure, and operations. ERM goes beyond traditional risk management, which often focuses on isolated risks, by considering the interdependencies and cumulative effects of risks on an enterprise-wide basis.

  1. Key Components of Enterprise Risk Management:

a. Risk Identification: The first step in ERM is identifying and cataloging all potential risks that may affect the organisation. This involves gathering information from various sources, including internal stakeholders, external experts, industry reports, and historical data. The goal is to create a comprehensive risk register that captures both known and emerging risks.

b. Risk Assessment: Once risks are identified, they need to be assessed in terms of their likelihood of occurrence and potential impact. This step involves qualitative and quantitative analysis to prioritise risks based on their significance. Risk assessment techniques may include scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic modeling.

c. Risk Mitigation: After assessing risks, organisations develop risk mitigation strategies to reduce the likelihood or impact of identified risks. These strategies may involve implementing controls, transferring risks through insurance or contracts, accepting risks within predetermined tolerance levels, or avoiding risks altogether by changing business practices or diversifying operations.

d. Risk Monitoring and Reporting: ERM is an ongoing process that requires continuous monitoring of risks to ensure their effectiveness. Organisations should establish clear risk indicators and thresholds to detect changes in risk levels and trigger appropriate actions. Regular reporting on risk exposures, mitigation efforts, and performance against risk objectives is essential to keep stakeholders informed and accountable.

e. Risk Culture and Communication: ERM is most effective when risk management becomes an integral part of an organisation’s culture. This involves fostering a risk-aware mindset among employees, encouraging open communication about risks, and embedding risk management practices in daily operations. Effective communication channels should be established to facilitate the flow of risk-related information across all levels of the organisation.

  1. Benefits of Enterprise Risk Management:

Implementing ERM brings several benefits to organisations:

a. Improved Decision Making: ERM provides decision-makers with a holistic view of risks, enabling them to make informed choices that align with the organisation’s risk appetite and strategic objectives. By considering risk factors, organisations can avoid costly mistakes and capitalise on opportunities.

b. Enhanced Resilience: ERM helps organisations become more resilient in the face of uncertainties and disruptions. By systematically managing risks, organisations can better anticipate and respond to potential threats, minimising their negative impact and quickly recovering from adverse events.

c. Competitive Advantage: Effective ERM enables organisations to differentiate themselves by demonstrating strong risk management practices to customers, investors, and regulators. This can enhance their reputation, attract new business opportunities, and improve access to capital.

d. Regulatory Compliance: ERM assists organisations in complying with applicable laws, regulations, and industry standards. By proactively managing risks, organisations can identify compliance gaps and take corrective actions to avoid penalties and reputational damage.

e. Cost Optimization: ERM helps organisations optimise resource allocation by identifying areas of inefficiency, waste, or excessive risk-taking. By streamlining processes, eliminating redundancies, and aligning risk management efforts, organisations can reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.

  1. Implementing Enterprise Risk Management:

To successfully implement ERM, organisations should consider the following steps:

a. Leadership Commitment: Senior management should demonstrate a strong commitment to ERM and actively champion its adoption throughout the organisation. This includes allocating resources, defining roles and responsibilities, and fostering a risk-aware culture.

b. Risk Governance: Establish a clear governance structure for ERM, with defined roles, responsibilities, and reporting lines. Designate a risk officer or risk management team to oversee the ERM process and ensure its integration into decision-making at all levels.

c. Risk Framework: Develop a risk management framework tailored to the organisation’s specific needs and industry context. This framework should outline the key components of ERM, including risk identification, assessment, mitigation, monitoring, and reporting.

d. Risk Assessment and Prioritisation: Conduct a comprehensive risk assessment to identify and prioritise risks based on their potential impact and likelihood of occurrence. This assessment should involve input from relevant stakeholders and utilise appropriate risk analysis techniques.

e. Risk Mitigation Strategies: Develop and implement risk mitigation strategies that align with the organisation’s risk appetite and strategic objectives. These strategies should be tailored to address specific risks and may involve a combination of controls, risk transfer mechanisms, and process improvements.

f. Integration with Business Processes: Embed risk management practices into existing business processes and decision-making frameworks. This includes integrating risk considerations into strategic planning, project management, performance evaluation, and budgeting processes.

g. Training and Awareness: Provide training and awareness programs to educate employees about ERM principles, methodologies, and their role in managing risks. Foster a culture of risk awareness, where employees are encouraged to report and escalate potential risks.

h. Continuous Monitoring and Improvement: Establish a system for ongoing risk monitoring and reporting. Regularly review and update the risk register, assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures, and identify emerging risks. Continuously improve the ERM process based on lessons learned and feedback from stakeholders.

  1. Overcoming Challenges in Enterprise Risk Management:

Implementing ERM can present challenges, but organisations can overcome them with proper planning and execution:

a. Organisational Silos: ERM requires collaboration and information sharing across different functions and departments. Breaking down silos and fostering cross-functional communication is essential for effective risk management.

b. Resistance to Change: Resistance to change can hinder the adoption of ERM. Organisations should invest in change management efforts, addressing concerns, and providing training and support to employees.

c. Data and Information Management: ERM relies on accurate and timely data and information. Organisations should establish robust data management systems, ensure data integrity, and leverage technology solutions for data collection, analysis, and reporting.

d. Risk Appetite Alignment: Aligning risk appetite across the organisation can be challenging. Clear communication and dialogue between senior management and relevant stakeholders are crucial to establish a shared understanding of risk tolerance and strategic objectives.

e. Evolving Risk Landscape: The risk landscape is continuously evolving, with new risks emerging and existing risks evolving. Organisations should stay updated on industry trends, regulatory changes, and emerging risks to ensure the relevance and effectiveness of their ERM practices.

Enterprise Risk Management is a strategic imperative for organizations to navigate the complexities and uncertainties of the modern business environment. By adopting a comprehensive ERM framework, organisations can proactively identify, assess, and mitigate risks, enabling them to make informed decisions, enhance resilience, and gain a competitive advantage. Successful implementation of ERM requires leadership commitment, a robust governance structure, integration with business processes, and a risk-aware culture. Overcoming challenges and continuously improving the ERM process will contribute to long-term success and sustainability in today’s dynamic business landscape.

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Risk events analysis is useful but not always productive

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You cannot change what happened but you can learn from it. However dwelling on past mistakes is not productive.

  • Mitigate negative impact of risk event and secure any benefits from risk event. Good can often come out of bad.
  • Learn lessons from risk events and move on quickly
  • Do not dwell on risk event impact as constantly punishing people from mistakes of past can be very demoralising and negatively impact on future business performance.

After the risk event make sure your risk management plan for future seeks to ensure it does not happen again but do not over do the risk controls. Reflecting on the lessons from the risk event facts is important but do not let emotions and pain of risk event change the risk perception of future likelihood of recurrence especially after some additional risk controls adopted maintained and reviewed.

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Executives Behaving Badly

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Corporate Misbehaviour Is A Misnomer

Corporate or enterprise entities do not make mistakes or create a bad business culture executives do. Illegal unethical or bad business practices arise because that’s the way executives want a company to achieve corporate objectives.   Executives may or may not consider their business practices as bad or unethical but the result is the same corporate misbehaviour.

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Understanding corporate misbehaviour

It may be a pointless waste of money undertaking a business health check if the executives are going to be unreceptive to the final risk management report, or simple pay lip-service to the outcomes.

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Many CEOs know what game needs to be played with enterprise risk management ERM before they can return to their own agenda for the business.   Internal or external risk management audits can just play into the CEO’s attitude to risk management.   Such executives short-term philosophy seems to rely on the hope that the shit doesn’t hit the fan during their time as CEO and whatever happens after they move on is not a concern for some incumbent CEOs.

Much of executive misbehaviour, and therefore corporate misbehaviour, is a direct result of executive pay and associated benefits.   Misdirecting executive pay and rewards drives most if not all catastrophic corporate collapses.   Before the collapse poor executive pay and rewards strategies poison business innovation and employee motivation.

To anticipate which companies will survive sustainably you could look at how executives are rewarded.   It is the single biggest driver of corporate culture and long-term success, or not as the case maybe.

Executive managers cause corporate scandals, corporate scandals are not externally driven.   The proximate cause of the corporate scandal or collapse doesn’t start further down the organisation nor does it start from outside the company.   CEO bad behaviour is normally the proximate cost or the catalyst for corporate collapse.

Corporate Scandals

Corporate scandals aren’t a surprise to most executives, never mind the CEO.   They take the level of risk they think is required to achieve their business objectives.   They roll the dice and sometimes it pays off and sometimes it doesn’t.

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For example, many in the banking and finance industry look upon the financial crisis as an external risk that impacted on their business strategy.   No, or little, blame can be placed at the bankers door!   It was all the other bankers and financers who were at fault for their share price collapse, mass redundancies and lost business opportunities – not their fault as their business was doing just fine until the financial crisis tsunami hit their business.

Such egotistical responses stem from either self preservation, or lack of care for their part in the near global systemic financial collapse of the banking and financial sector and the very near global anarchy which would have ensued.   Politicians, who were part of the problem, became part of the solution – make money as cheap as possible via low interest rates and massive almost unremitting quantitative easing QE.

Mothers forget how bad childbirth was

More than a decade after the start of the financial crisis there is still mass unemployment in the developed world and the developing world lost a decade of opportunity to crawl out of poverty.   However, the key decision-makers in the business world have either forgiven themselves or reinvented themselves in position of power.   In addition, a new raft of politicians are in place, or about to find positions of power, to facilitate the next financial crisis.

At its least useful, enterprise risk management ERM is a tool to spread the blame should the shit hit the fan, so one would have thought that ERM could be more popular than it is.   At its most useful it helps business leaders make business decisions that are more likely to be good ones for the long-term sustainability of the business for the benefit of all stakeholders in the business – including the CEO.

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