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Risk analysis of impact of coronavirus on global economy

Coronavirus hits the global economy on both the supply and demand side BusinessRiskTV.com

Coronavirus threats to world economy. Coronavirus global economy impact. The coronavirus has not yet be officially acknowledged as a pandemic health risk. However it probably is already a pandemic health risk and is certainly a global economic pandemic spreading uncontrollably around world.

Although the world financial markets have had their worst time since the financial crisis in 2008 the actual impact of the coronavirus has yet to be felt and revealed. The financial markets are giving a glimpse into what is feared in future not what is happening now.

With just 36 cases in the UK it appears that the UK is relatively spared from the virus. The most worrying case out of the 36 is the one where the infected person has not been abroad and has not been in contact with anyone who has to his or her knowledge. Tracing the source is key to controlling and containing the spread of the coronavirus.

Many countries where the official numbers of coronavirus infection cases are so low is worrying

There are many countries where scepticism on figures inflates fear of a pandemic that may not be recoverable. China where the coronavirus originated from may have be slow to unveil the seriousness of the problem have been praised by World Health Organisation WHO for honest figures.

Some countries have different reasons to deliberately suppress news of an epidemic in the country. In addition there are countries which may not have the resources to identify the coronavirus. More worringly they also do not have the resources to stop the spread of the virus.

Other disasters in some parts of the world also have the potential to exasperate and accelerate the spread of the virus. What happens if the coronavirus infects refugees and economic migrants trying to escape to Europe via Italy Greece Bulgaria and Spain. Germany not long ago took around one million of these people. If such numbers flowed again and they also had the coronavirus how much more quickly would the coronavirus spread throughout Europe? Exponentially fast!

Control of coronavirus COVID19 is unlikely especially as there is no vaccine

A vaccine by most estimates is unlikely to be identified until early 2021. Even when a vaccine has been found it then has to be manufactured in sufficient quantities to have a reduction in the spread of the virus never mind eliminated.

The coronavirus is likely to be with us until end of 2021 at the earliest never mind getting coronvirus spread under control this year.

Major sporting events like the Olympics this summer are unlikely to proceed. Whilst this creates obvious disappointment for the athletes supports and Japanese people it in one event creates massive economic loss for Japan Olympic sponsors and lots of products or services will not be sold if the Olympics is cancelled.

Businesses will face reduced performance at best and potentially even collapse

If you are not able to sell products or services how do you pay fixed costs never mind variable costs of being in business. Potentially fatal could be loss of the ability to pay your creditors who may close you down to try to get their money back.

Central banks around the world have yet to realise they have not recovered from the financial crisis in 2008. Their tools to tackle global recession including lowering interest rate and increasing quantitative easing QE are worn out. There is little manoeuvrability for central banks. In COVID19 terms central banks do not have very good vaccines left at their disposal to support economic growth.

Individual countries will undoubtedly fall into a recession due to the coronavirus COVID19

Countries like Italy already severely impacted by coronavirus were already teetering on the edge of recession. The coronavirus will push them over the edge. The northern part of Italy is the powerhouse of the Italian economy and much of it has already been shutdown. Can Italy really stop the spread which will make economic impact worse?

Even countries like USA can dramatically lose economic growth. Not all Americans have good access to healthcare services. If you cannot call upon your healthcare services to detect and help control the coronavirus spread then it could spread like wildfire in USA if it takes hold and it is close to taking hold now.

The coronavirus spread in poorer less developed countries is essentially unstoppable. How can parts of Middle East Africa Asia Central America and South America really contain spread of coronavirus. The how do you contain the spread from these areas to more wealthy parts of the world.

The economic impact is going to be so severe as it hits not just the supply side of the economy it cuts demand too

When disaster strikes businesses can stop supplying cause the risk event stops output abruptly. However the coronavirus dramatically cuts demand quickly too. People stop assembly in public in restaurants events bars concerts sporting events etc through fear of catching the coronavirus. They may start spending again when under control but we are looking at end of 2021 before this even has possibility of subsiding.

Other concerns include lack of scientific knowledge about coronavirus. The boffins do not know enough yet to be sure we will ever get this under control.

  • We do not know how long the virus can survive on surfaces when people cough or touch surfaces with contaminated hands.
  • We do not know if our normal ways of cleaning surfaces works on coronavirus.
  • There have been suggestions that people who have had coronavirus in recent months and recovered then contract virus again. Potentially not only will infected people not be immune in future but then may not be cured in first place or regenerate virus.
  • Many people across the world including the UK will now be thinking they have a mild illness or seasonal flu when in fact they have COVID19. When it can be contained you are tracing contacts to track down infection line to control risks. However when COVID19 is spreading unencumbered mildly infected people will be spreading virus unknowingly and then 80 percent infection across the UK and world starts to become realistic.
  • We do not know if the warmer weather will help the world to control the spread of the virus like it did with SARS or whether it will continue to spread.
  • We do not know if COVID19 will morph into something worse or morph into something less virulent.

Some estimates suggest that 80 percent of people in UK will contract the coronavirus COVID19 if it spreads uncontrollably in UK. The UK could well be on cusp of uncontrollable spread as the UK government gears up to act this week. On the positive side 80 percent of those who contract the virus only get mild manageable symptoms. On negative side a fatal rate of even 1 percent of UK population is still around half a million deaths.

One way some countries may manage the coronavirus risk is simply to let it spread across the whole country without stopping business activity or economic growth. If 80 percent have mild symptoms and 1 percent die what is their tolerance of risks. Will they chose economic slowdown or losing 1 percent of their population? This could mean the rest of the world suffer boomerang epidemics. What could make this less likely is that leaders can die of the virus just like their peasants!

Safety at work and managing health and safety of your workforce

Employers have a duty to take reasonable steps to protect their workers. This includes protection from exposure to coronvirus. This has obvious implications about travelling to coronavirus hotspots but also includes the coronavirus coming to your workplace. The coronavirus could change forever how we do business in future. If and when the spread of the coronavirus is brought under control we may find it more sensible to have less contact face to face and more online communication.

Ocado in UK who deliver to more wealthy customers have already announced a jump in the number of people ordering online for food and drink delivery to home. This is just one example of winners as well as losers from COVID19 outbreak.

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We are in the foothills of the coronavirus pandemic. Yes it is a pandemic despite WHOs caution. How you manage the risks to your business will have limitations but where you can control the risks you must start implement your business continuity plan now not when when a full blown pandemic is sweeping across the world.

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Risk analysis of impact of coronavirus on global economy

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BusinessRiskTV provides a business advice forum for business leaders. Connect with like minded business leaders. Discuss key threats and opportunities facing your business in a virtual online business advice forum.

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More meetings but few business decisions are made

Problem solving meetings and innovative business solutions with BusinessRiskTV.com

More Efficient and Effective Business Decisions

Structure management meetings to make real decisions. Make progress do not maintain status quo. Move your business forward with a meeting. Make sure your decision making meeting works well for your business.

Having too many meetings decreases productivity. A boost to productivity can be facilitated by reducing the number of meetings and making each one held more venues for better decision making. Manage meeting process better and keep meetings short.

Academics from the University of Malmo in Sweden say meetings provide an outlet for people at work to show off their status or to express frustration.

BBC Report

Managers should have clearly defined roles and accountability that they have agreed to and these should be directly linked with the strategic operational and project objectives of the business.

Just because you have manager in your job title does not mean the best thing for the business is to be in meetings constantly. Especially if at the end of a meeting not decision has been taken on the subject of the meeting.

However the BBC report says that the professor things meetings are good because they allow the business to assert power and direction over those attending the meeting. Surely meetings should be about engaging all those attending the meeting in solving a specific problem or problems the meeting has been called to address. Address means there must be decisions taken on how to resolve the issues raised otherwise they are just talking shops and can actually be more destructive than constructive.

If dissatisfaction with the business is to be allowed it should be in the understanding that you bring a solution to the problem you are complaining about not just a problem.

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Effective meetings can produce better business decisions. Not all decisions made at a meeting will be good decisions. Having decided a meeting is needed make sure the potential benefit from the meeting is not missed.

  • Make sure ever attendee properly prepares for the meeting. Make sure what decision needs to be made is clear before the meeting and what is expected from attendees.
  • Make sure it is clear that people are attending not to talk about the problem but to make a decision on a specific issue.
  • There maybe more than one option to consider and decide on the best decision. Make sure the options are clear before the meeting.
  • Make sure there is a written meeting agenda and a clear idea of what decisions are needed. Make sure all attendees are suitable informed about the meeting subject matter. Send out agenda before meeting.

Holding short meetings are better than long ones. Shorter meetings should help focus minds on the key issues at hand. Short meetings can focus the energy in the room on finding business solutions not issuing direction or showcasing managerial power.

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BusinessRiskTV business risk management active members club enables members to contribute to BusinessRiskTV for free. Active members around the world contribute articles and videos to help grow their business faster with less uncertainty to help inform readers business risk management decision making.

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Join the BusinessRiskTV Business Risk Club and receive FREE business risk alerts bulletins and latest business risk news to stay ahead of your competition.

The Club is free to join. Then you choose whether you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV to promote your own business and inform online readers. You pay an annual membership fee to regularly contribute to BusinessRiskTV and promote your business interests cost effectively.

Key benefits of BusinessRiskTV Risk Club and reasons to join and contribute today

  1. Free to join. There is no cost to join the club. Once you join you also have the option of contributing to BusinessRiskTV to better market promote and advertise your business. In addition you will have increased access to discussions workshops and executive training to better protect your business. You are in control of what to do next after you join the club for free.
  2. Free business intelligence to inform your decision making to build your business resilience. Club members receive free news alerts and bulletins. Our risk watch service scans the horizon for emerging risks and analyses business risk trends. You can attend online discussions workshops and executive training sessions.
  3. Safe and secure. All payments are made through Paypal an independent third party online payment service which stops us receiving full details of your banking or payment details so you are protected by Paypals security systems.
  4. Build your online profile and connections to grow your business faster. BusinessRiskTV has an impressive online profile to connect you with local and global business risk management experts and new sales for your business.
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BusinessRiskTV Club is NOT just a talking shop. It is a business growth hub to practically accelerate members revenue streams. It is business accelerator where everyone has the same interest in seeing the businesses build resilience regardless of economic environment.

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You are always in control of your subscription to BusinessRiskTV club. You can choose to remain on the free membership and still receive free business intelligence and risk knowledge. Or you can regularly contribute to the content and thus increase your own business profile and business growth.

We are in it for the long term and look forward to working with members for sustainable mutual benefit. If you want to stop your membership you can at any time. We are looking forward to you working with us to help your business grow faster.

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You can read business risk management articles or watch videos for free including business risk management expert opinions and analysis to inform your own business decision making process.

After you join the club you can just use it as a simple way to be kept up to date on emerging and developing corporate risks impacting on your business objectives.

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BusinessRiskTV Club could be very profitable for your business if you contribute to the content and connect to your business. There are no guarantees of returns but membership of the club expands your options for greater business success and business resilience. There will be failures. That is the nature of business marketing and development. However you will get access to innovative flexible ways to grow and protect your business better. We will minimise the cost of uncertainty impacting on your business objectives over time. At the same time we will increase the chances of become a market leader in your industry and country.

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  • Am I tied into the BusinessRiskTV Club? It is free to join club. If you want to contribute to BusinessRiskTV there is a membership fee. You are free to leave the club at anytime. You will not be entitled to a refund of the annual membership fee but will not be tied to renew your membership.
  • How long does membership last? 12 months renewable annually.
  • I do not know anything about online business marketing and development? That is one of the great strengths about being in the Business Risk Management Club. You simply join now and then we will email you to find out what you need to do to grow your business faster. We will then go away and start your marketing and promotion campaign. We will design post and update your contributions to promote your business. Our team of enterprise risk experts and business risk advisers to help protect and grow your business faster.
  • How fast will my business grow? It is impossible to say. It depends on how well we can work together to get the most from your existing business development tools and initiatives. The potential is there for massive gains but the value of your membership fee could be worthless if we fail to work well together. That is why our members should always diversify our marketing options to maximise the likelihood of increasing sales. We will guide you on the diversification options based on our discussions on what you offer and when. You are not putting all your business development eggs in one basket but the affordable membership fee expands the likelihood of your business growing faster.
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Small Business Financial Mistakes

Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

Small business owners often make financial mistakes that can have serious consequences for the success of their company. Here are some of the most common financial mistakes made by small business owners, and advice on how to prevent them:

  1. Not keeping accurate financial records: Without accurate financial records, it can be difficult for small business owners to make informed decisions about the financial health of their company. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should establish a system for keeping accurate financial records, such as using accounting software or hiring a bookkeeper.
  2. Not having a budget: A budget is an essential tool for small business owners, as it helps them to plan for expenses and manage cash flow. Without a budget, small business owners may overspend and find themselves in financial trouble. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should create a budget and stick to it.
  3. Not having enough working capital: Working capital is the amount of money a business has available to cover its short-term expenses. Without enough working capital, small business owners may struggle to pay bills and meet other financial obligations. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should maintain a healthy level of working capital by managing expenses and seeking financing when necessary.
  4. Not having adequate insurance: Insurance is an important tool for small business owners, as it helps protect their company against potential financial losses. Without adequate insurance, small business owners may find themselves facing financial ruin in the event of a disaster or other unexpected event. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should review their insurance needs and purchase the appropriate policies.
  5. Not diversifying investments: Small business owners often invest a significant portion of their assets in their own company, which can be risky. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should diversify their investments to spread risk.
  6. Not seeking professional advice: Small business owners often make financial decisions without seeking the advice of a professional. This can lead to costly mistakes. To prevent this mistake, small business owners should seek the advice of a financial advisor or accountant before making important financial decisions.

By avoiding these common financial mistakes, small business owners can increase the chances of success for their company.

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Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them

More small business risk management articles and videos

  • Avoiding Financial Pitfalls: Top Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Prevent Them
  • Safeguarding Your Business: Common Financial Mistakes Small Business Owners Make and How to Avoid Them
  • Steering Clear of Financial Disaster: A Guide for Small Business Owners on Common Mistakes and Prevention Strategies
  • Financial Survival for Small Business Owners: Common Mistakes to Avoid and How to Protect Your Business

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