How could the $220 trillion shadow banking gambling casino blow up your business prospects?
The Looming Shadow: Leveraged Shadow Banking and the 2024 Risk Horizon
As we peer into the economic crystal ball of 2024, one spectre looms large: the potential for a crisis borne from the murky depths of leveraged shadow banking. While whispers of this risk have swirled for years, the confluence of several factors – rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and an interconnected financial landscape – amplifies the potential for a shockwave to ripple through the global economy. As business leaders, navigating this uncharted territory requires an understanding of the threat and proactive measures to ensure our ships weather the storm.
Delving into the Shadows:
Shadow banking encompasses a vast network of non-traditional financial institutions operating outside the regulatory purview of the formal banking system. Think investment funds, hedge funds, money market funds, and other entities engaging in lending, credit extension, and other activities typically associated with banks. The key differentiator lies in their funding – they rely heavily on borrowed money (leverage) to amplify their investment capacity, amplifying potential returns, but also magnifying risk.
This reliance on leverage creates a precarious scenario. Rising interest rates, a reality in 2023, increased the cost of borrowing for shadow banks, squeezing their profit margins and potentially triggering a wave of defaults on their obligations. This domino effect could cascade through the financial system, impacting traditional banks reliant on shadow banking for liquidity and investment opportunities.
The Perfect Storm:
Beyond interest rates, several storm clouds gather on the horizon. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around resource-rich regions, could disrupt global supply chains and trigger commodity price volatility, further squeezing margins for shadow banks heavily invested in such assets. Additionally, the interconnectedness of the financial system means a crisis in one corner can rapidly spread, amplifying the overall impact.
The 2024 Risk Horizon:
While predicting the exact timing of a potential crisis is a fool’s errand, 2024 presents several worrying factors. The lagged effects of interest rate hikes could manifest, geopolitical flashpoints remain simmering, and the post-pandemic economic recovery has yet to be fully cemented. This confluence of risks creates a perfect storm for a shadow banking crisis, with potentially devastating consequences.
Protecting Your Business:
So, what can business leaders do to safeguard their organisations? Several proactive measures are key:
Strengthen Liquidity: Build robust cash reserves to weather potential disruptions in credit availability.
Diversify Funding Sources: Reduce reliance on shadow banking and diversify funding sources to traditional banks and alternative forms of financing.
Stress Test Scenarios: Run stress tests to understand your exposure to potential shadow banking-related shocks and identify vulnerabilities.
Reduce Leverage: Minimise dependence on borrowed capital to lessen the impact of rising interest rates.
Scenario Planning: Develop contingency plans for various crisis scenarios to ensure swift and decisive action when needed.
Beyond internal measures, advocating for stronger regulatory oversight of the shadow banking system is crucial. Pushing for greater transparency, capital adequacy requirements, and risk management protocols can mitigate the systemic risks emanating from this opaque corner of finance.
A Call to Action:
The potential for a shadow banking crisis in 2024 is not a foregone conclusion; it is a call to action. By understanding the risks, adopting proactive measures, and advocating for responsible regulation, we can navigate these perilous waters and ensure the continued prosperity of our businesses and the global economy. Remember, vigilance, diversification, and preparedness are our anchors in the coming storm. Let us act with foresight and build a future where shadows no longer threaten the economic sun.
The risks from shadow banking is another reason interest rate cuts in USA, EU and UK would be welcome but much needed regulation of the 220 trillion dollars invested in this area is probably not going to happen until 2025 at the earliest – if at all. Ironically the leverage problem is due to financial institutions lack of money!
Once again central banks in USA, EU and UK have been too slow to react and when they do they’ll be too late and overreact perpetuating our economic boom bust cycle
The Looming Storm: Declining Inflation, Rising Recession Risk in 2024
While headlines tout slowing inflation in the US, EU, and UK, a shadow lurks beneath the surface. Contrary to popular belief, this seemingly positive development may in fact be a harbinger of imminent recession in 2024. Understanding why requires peeling back the layers of economic realities and acknowledging the nuanced interplay between inflation, monetary policy, and economic behaviour.
From Scorching to Smoldering: The Inflation Slowdown Narrative
Over the past year, inflationary flames have licked across global economies, driven by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, soaring energy prices, and fiscal stimulus packages. Central banks, armed with the blunt instrument of interest rate hikes, sought to tamp down the heat. And indeed, recent data reflects a cooling trend. US inflation has dipped from a peak of 9.1% in June 2023, with similar softening observed in the EU and UK.
This downward trajectory has fueled a wave of optimism. Policymakers and pundits alike herald the successful execution of monetary tightening, envisioning a soft landing for the global economy. Some even predict inflation returning to target levels within the year.
Beneath the Surface: The Cracks in the Facade
However, this rosy outlook rests on shaky ground. The disinflationary trend, while seemingly positive, can also be a potent predictor of impending recession. Let’s explore the three key reasons why:
1. Demand Destruction, Not Harmony: Declining inflation is often achieved through demand destruction. Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive, impacting both businesses and consumers. Business investment slows, hiring freezes become commonplace, and consumer spending weakens as disposable income shrinks. This domino effect ultimately saps economic activity, paving the way for recession.
2. The Lag Effect’s Looming Bite: Monetary policy operates with a time lag. Today’s interest rate hikes primarily impact economic activity months down the line. This means the full force of recent tightening may not be felt until 2024, potentially triggering a sudden and sharp economic downturn just as policymakers believe they’ve tamed the inflation beast.
3. Stagflationary Spectre : The disinflationary process carries the risk of morphing into stagflation, a nightmare scenario characterised by stagnant economic growth and persistent, albeit lower, inflation. This arises when businesses, burdened by higher input costs, maintain price hikes even as demand weakens. Such a scenario would severely constrain central banks’ ability to respond, trapping the economy in a quagmire.
A Perfect Storm Brewing in 2024:
Considering these factors, 2024 appears primed for a perfect economic storm. The lagged effects of aggressive interest rate hikes are likely to coincide with continued geopolitical uncertainties, energy price volatility, and ongoing supply chain disruptions. This potent cocktail could push vulnerable economies over the edge, plunging them into recession despite disinflationary trends.
Evidence Mounts, The Case Strengthens:
Empirical evidence further substantiates this gloomy outlook. Leading economic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and consumer confidence surveys, are already flashing red. Business investment has plateaued, and layoffs are increasing across various sectors. Additionally, inverted yield curves, historically reliable recession predictors, have emerged in all three economies, signaling heightened investor anxiety about future economic prospects.
A Call to Action: Navigating the Coming Storm
The potential for a 2024 recession demands immediate and proactive action. Policymakers must adopt a nuanced approach, acknowledging the dual threat of inflation and recession. Continued, albeit calibrated, interest rate hikes may still be necessary to tame inflation, but fiscal measures aimed at supporting vulnerable populations and stimulating aggregate demand become crucial (boom to bust ie bailing out financial system again. Open communication with the public, emphasising transparent risk assessment and contingency plans, is also essential to maintain confidence and mitigate potential financial panic.
Individuals and businesses, too, must brace themselves for turbulent times. Building robust financial buffers, diversifying investments, and exercising prudence in spending decisions are key to weathering the storm.
Conclusion: The Coming Recession – Not a Certainty, But a Clear and Present Danger
While declining inflation may initially appear as a victory, it can mask a deeper malaise. In the context of current economic vulnerabilities and aggressive monetary tightening, the disinflationary trend in the US, EU, and UK presents a significant risk of recession in 2024. Ignoring this risk would be akin to celebrating a pyre’s dimming flames while neglecting the smoldering embers beneath. By acknowledging the impending danger and taking decisive action, policymakers and individuals alike can navigate the coming storm and emerge stronger on the other side.
Understand the growing threat of financial collapse
The Dangers to Businesses and People from Eurozone Bank Stress and Loan Defaults: An Expert Perspective
The Eurozone banking sector is facing a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, slowing economic growth, and increased loan defaults. These factors are putting stress on banks’ balance sheets and making it more difficult for them to lend to businesses and consumers. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences for businesses and people across the Eurozone.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on Businesses
Businesses rely on banks to provide them with the credit they need to operate and grow. When banks are under stress, they are more likely to tighten lending standards and raise interest rates. This can make it difficult for businesses to get the loans they need to invest in new equipment, hire new employees, and expand their operations. As a result, businesses may be forced to cut back on their spending, which can lead to slower economic growth and job losses.
In addition, businesses that are unable to obtain loans from banks may turn to riskier forms of financing, such as borrowing from high-interest lenders or taking on more debt. This can increase their financial risk and make them more vulnerable to economic downturns.
The Impact of Eurozone Bank Stress on People
People also rely on banks for a variety of financial services, such as checking and savings accounts, mortgages, and auto loans. When banks are under stress, they may reduce their hours of operation, close branches, and increase fees. This can make it more difficult for people to access the financial services they need.
In addition, if banks are forced to raise interest rates, this will make it more expensive for people to borrow money. This could lead to an increase in household debt and make it more difficult for people to make ends meet.
The Dangers of Loan Defaults
Loan defaults are a major concern for banks because they can significantly erode their capital. When a borrower defaults on a loan, the bank loses the money it lent out, and it may also have to pay legal fees and other expenses to collect the debt. This can quickly eat into the bank’s capital, which is the money it needs to operate and withstand financial shocks.
If banks are not able to maintain adequate capital levels, they may be forced to reduce their lending activities or even go bankrupt. This would have a devastating impact on the economy, as it would make it even more difficult for businesses and consumers to get the credit they need.
Policy Options to Address Eurozone Bank Stress
There are a number of policy options that could be taken to address Eurozone bank stress and reduce the risk of loan defaults. These include:
Providing additional regulatory capital relief to banks: This would help banks to build up their capital buffers and make them more resilient to financial shocks.
Encouraging banks to securitise their loans: Securitisation is a process of pooling loans together and selling them to investors as securities. This can help banks to reduce their exposure to individual borrowers and spread out their risk.
Implementing stricter lending standards: This would help to ensure that banks are only lending to borrowers who are able to repay their loans.
Improving the quality of credit data: This would help banks to make better lending decisions and reduce the risk of loan defaults.
Conclusion
Eurozone bank stress and loan defaults pose a significant threat to businesses and people across the Eurozone. If these trends continue, they could lead to a financial crisis that would have severe consequences. Policymakers need to take action to address these challenges and reduce the risk of a financial crisis.
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Survival Strategies in Business: Join Our Expert Course
Unlock the secrets to thriving in uncertainty with BusinessRiskTV.com’s “Survival Strategies in Business” course! In an ever-evolving marketplace, business leaders must adapt quickly to survive and succeed. This dynamic course offers invaluable insights into identifying risks, leveraging opportunities, and implementing effective strategies to navigate challenges.
Led by industry experts, the course covers essential topics such as crisis management, strategic planning, and resilience building. You’ll gain practical skills and tools to enhance your decision-making and foster a culture of agility within your organisation.
Business survival guide for trading through harsh economic environment
Survival Strategies in Business: A Comprehensive Guide to Thriving in Harsh Economic Environments
In today’s volatile business landscape, navigating through challenging economic conditions can be a daunting task. However, with effective survival strategies in place, businesses can not only weather the storm but also emerge stronger. This article will provide valuable insights and practical tips on how to keep your business afloat during harsh economic environments, employing key survival strategies in strategic management.
Assess and Adapt: The Foundation of Survival Strategies Surviving in a harsh economic environment begins with a thorough assessment of your business. Evaluate your current position, identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT analysis), and develop strategies to leverage your strengths and address weaknesses. Adaptability is key, as businesses must be prepared to pivot and adjust their operations to align with changing market demands.
Streamline Operations and Reduce Costs During challenging times, it is crucial to optimize your operations and identify areas for cost reduction. Analyze your business processes, eliminate inefficiencies, renegotiate contracts with suppliers, and explore opportunities for outsourcing non-core activities. Cutting unnecessary costs while maintaining quality and efficiency can help businesses survive and remain competitive.
Diversify Your Revenue Streams Overreliance on a single product, service, or market can expose businesses to significant risks. To enhance survival prospects, consider diversifying your revenue streams. Explore new markets, develop complementary products or services, or establish strategic partnerships that can open up additional income sources. This diversification can provide stability and cushion against economic downturns.
Maintain Strong Relationships with Customers Nurturing and retaining existing customers is vital during tough economic times. Focus on providing exceptional customer service, personalised experiences, and innovative solutions that meet their evolving needs. Develop loyalty programs, offer incentives, and engage in proactive communication to strengthen customer relationships. Satisfied customers are more likely to remain loyal and support your business, even in challenging times.
Embrace Digital Transformation In the digital age, businesses that fail to adapt to the digital landscape risk falling behind. Invest in technology and embrace digital transformation to improve operational efficiency, reach a wider audience, and capitalise on emerging opportunities. Leverage digital marketing, social media, and e-commerce platforms to expand your online presence and connect with customers in cost-effective ways.
Continuously Monitor and Anticipate Market Trends Survival strategies require businesses to stay ahead of the curve by monitoring and anticipating market trends. Regularly analyse industry reports, conduct market research, and keep a close eye on your competitors. This proactive approach allows you to identify emerging opportunities, anticipate challenges, and make informed strategic decisions to keep your business agile and resilient.
Build a Resilient Workforce Employees are the backbone of any organisation, and their resilience is crucial during tough times. Foster a culture of open communication, transparency, and collaboration within your workforce. Provide training and development opportunities to enhance their skills and adaptability. Engage in effective change management practices to ensure a smooth transition during challenging periods. A resilient workforce can contribute significantly to the survival and growth of your business.
Seek Financial Support and Plan for Contingencies When economic conditions worsen, seeking financial support can be essential for business survival. Explore funding options, such as loans, grants, or government programs designed to assist businesses during economic downturns. Develop a contingency plan that includes financial forecasts, cash flow management strategies, and risk mitigation measures. Being prepared for unexpected challenges can minimise their impact on your business operations.
Collaborate and Leverage Networks In difficult times, collaboration and strategic alliances can be powerful survival strategies. Identify opportunities to collaborate with other businesses or industry associations to share resources, pool knowledge, and jointly tackle challenges. Collaborative efforts can lead to cost savings, knowledge exchange, and access to new markets or customer segments. Leverage your professional networks, attend industry events, and actively participate in business communities to stay connected and explore potential partnerships.
Communicate Transparently with Stakeholders During harsh economic environments, maintaining open and transparent communication with stakeholders is crucial. Keep employees, investors, suppliers, and customers informed about your business’s situation, challenges, and strategies. Clear communication fosters trust, builds loyalty, and encourages support from key stakeholders. It also allows for collaborative problem-solving and enables stakeholders to align their expectations with the reality of the economic climate.
Embrace Innovation and Agility Innovation and agility are key survival traits for businesses operating in challenging economic environments. Encourage a culture of innovation within your organisation, where employees are empowered to generate and implement new ideas. Adapt quickly to changing circumstances, seize emerging opportunities, and be willing to modify your business model or offerings to meet evolving market demands. Embracing innovation and agility can help you stay ahead of the competition and thrive, even in tough times.
Surviving and thriving in harsh economic environments require a combination of strategic planning, adaptability, and resilience. By implementing the survival strategies in strategic management outlined in this article, businesses can weather economic downturns, keep their businesses afloat, and position themselves for long-term success. Assessing and adapting, streamlining operations, diversifying revenue streams, maintaining strong customer relationships, embracing digital transformation, monitoring market trends, building a resilient workforce, seeking financial support, collaborating with others, and communicating transparently are key elements to guide businesses through challenging times. By employing these strategies, you can fortify your business’s survival and emerge stronger in the face of adversity.
Exploring preparation for a global recession with a businessrisktv.com
What happens to commodity prices in a recession
The coming global recession will slash demand for oil copper and the like. Prices for most commodities will fall. If the world falls into depression commodity prices will fall off a cliff including oil.
Some prices can rise temporarily as people seek a safe haven. People may flee to gold or a few commodities that they think will safe harbour their money during a recession. However a depression, which is more and more likely, causes most commodity prices to collapse.
June’s weaker demand for commodities signals that an economic global recession is coming closer.
BusinessRiskTV
Global recession is necessary to stop runaway global inflation. The hard landing is the only option now available due to the lacklustre response to control inflation by Central banks and global national government.
Agricultural demand and energy demand is likely to keep rising during the autumn and winter and will sustain high commodity prices. This is likely to be aggravated by poor geopolitical decision-making by incompetent national leaders and global bodies like WHO, UN and WEF puppet masters and pied pippers particularly as it relates to food, water and energy. It is likely that another health crisis will emerge in the autumn winter and spring and this is likely to be managed in a restrictive way due to the propensity of these international bodies to take more and more health and economic risk management control. In addition, as demand falls due to rising inflation it can be combined with increased supply chain disruption imposed by recommended risk management action by international bodies that national governments adopt. Worse WHO wants overseeing overriding control of the next wave of the pandemic or next health pandemic.
Demand is likely to stay the same or slightly lower, but our leaders can change the supply up or down with their decisions. Reducing supply will push up prices.
Global stagflation is a certainty. When not if.
BusinessRiskTV
Global commodity prices
Wheat and oil future prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures. Weaker commodity prices in June indicate we are transitioning to a global recession. Although commodity prices will fall, inflation will increase and stay high whilst growth turns to recession. For example there will be less demand for oil, oil prices will fall, but prices of goods and services will remain high.
Surviving global recession: how do you prepare for a recession
Businesses that can offer business discounts and consumer discounts are more likely to survive as more people become price conscious.
Businesses that supply essentials or luxury items at a discount offer more in the marketplace compared to those businesses who have let their own costs of being in business balloon and cannot offer deals and discounts.
Discount grocery and retail stores tend to have more footfall during a recession. Many supermarkets take advantage of their customers during the good times and suffer a loss of business and profitability when recessionary precious hit the consumers household budget.
People still die during recession! After the management of global risks over the last two years more people will die. businesses which cater for death are likely to perform strongly throughout a recession.
People turn to drink and drugs during a recession! Businesses providing alcohol and drugs will perform strongly during the coming recession.
You still have to pay your taxes! Accountants and tax advisors are likely to still perform well during the recession.
Everyone can afford a bit of lippy! Cosmetic businesses can perform well during a recession.
As for the rest of businesses, they must fully understand what’s important and what is not for their particular business model. Offering more value for money will become more important.
Global recession 2023
Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023
Create a more successful business with BusinessRiskTV tips advice and support
Has your business been just surviving for too long and could it be more successful?
There are many ways to grow a business. There is no right way fits all businesses. Even if the business is almost the exact same as another business in terms of who they target to sell to and have the same resources, the success and failure can come down to who leads the business and how they manage limited resources.
The problem can be exacerbated by outside risk events like wars, pandemics and interest rate movements, but controlling both internal and external risk drivers is what a leader is paid to do.
How can you save and grow your business
BusinessRiskTV
Do not let fear of unknown and uncertainty deprive you of a more successful business. We can help you make better business decisions with increased risk knowledge, improved risk management skills and better business intelligence.
Business survival in the current economic climate is an important first base objective. However, attack can be the best form of defence! Growing your way out of the imminent global recession may help you not only survive but prosper.
Why has your business not grown as fast as you would have liked?
Do you know?
Is that the right perception of your failure to grow?
Do you know what you could do differently?
Why haven’t you made the changes needed to be more successful in business?
Sure there have been challenges over last few years. Yes you had to react fast to survive. However, getting ahead of the impeding disaster to hit many businesses will help your business survive and grow.
Its business leaders seek to increase profit not turnover;
Its business leaders engage everyone in the process of being better, regardless of how good they currently are at the way they do things.
Become more tuned to the needs of your business stakeholders. Adapt your offering to the marketplace to dit those needs better. Deliver what they need and want more cost-effectively with less uncertainty. Make money more easily with more certainty with a better business risk management plan. Maximise the value of your business with a better offering to the marketplace.
Mastering the Right Business Skills: Overcoming Problems and Embracing Opportunities
In the dynamic and competitive landscape of the business world, possessing the right set of skills is crucial for running a successful enterprise. Whether you are an entrepreneur starting a new venture or an established business owner, honing your business skills is essential for tackling challenges, solving problems, and capitalising on opportunities. This article explores the key skills needed to run a successful business, highlights the importance of these skills, discusses problem-solving strategies, and provides practical tips for improving your business acumen.
I. The Essential Skills for Running a Successful Business
Running a successful business requires a combination of hard and soft skills. Below are some key skills that entrepreneurs and business owners should develop:
Leadership and Communication Skills: Effective leadership is vital for guiding teams, making strategic decisions, and inspiring employees. Strong communication skills foster collaboration, negotiation, and relationship building.
Financial Management Skills: Understanding financial concepts, managing cash flow, and analysing financial statements are crucial for making informed business decisions and ensuring long-term sustainability.
Marketing and Sales Skills: The ability to identify target markets, develop effective marketing strategies, and close sales is essential for attracting and retaining customers.
Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills: Being able to analyse complex situations, think critically, and make sound decisions in a timely manner is vital for overcoming challenges and seizing opportunities.
Adaptability and Resilience: The business landscape is constantly evolving, and being adaptable and resilient allows entrepreneurs to navigate uncertainties and bounce back from setbacks.
Time and Project Management Skills: Effective time management and project planning ensure that tasks are completed efficiently, deadlines are met, and resources are optimised.
Networking and Relationship Building Skills: Building a strong network of contacts, maintaining customer relationships, and nurturing partnerships are valuable for business growth and opportunities.
II. The Importance of Business Skills
Business skills are fundamental for several reasons:
Successful Decision Making: With the right business skills, entrepreneurs can analyse data, evaluate risks, and make informed decisions, leading to better outcomes and growth.
Efficient Problem Solving: Business skills equip individuals with problem-solving techniques to identify and address issues, enabling smoother operations and improved customer satisfaction.
Adaptation to Changing Markets: Business skills enable entrepreneurs to stay abreast of market trends, identify emerging opportunities, and adapt their strategies to remain competitive.
Effective Communication: Strong communication skills enhance collaboration, team dynamics, and customer relations, fostering a positive brand image and facilitating business success.
Building a Strong Team: Business skills contribute to effective team management, recruitment, and employee development, leading to a motivated workforce and higher productivity.
Financial Management: Proficient financial skills help entrepreneurs manage budgets, cash flow, and profitability, enabling sustainable growth and mitigating financial risks.
III. Solving Business-Related Problems
To solve business problems effectively, consider the following strategies:
Define the Problem: Clearly identify the problem by analysing the root causes and understanding its impact on various aspects of the business.
Gather Information: Collect relevant data, conduct research, and consult experts to gain insights and develop a comprehensive understanding of the problem.
Analyse and Prioritise: Break down the problem into manageable components, evaluate their significance, and prioritise areas for action.
Generate Solutions: Encourage brainstorming sessions to generate a range of potential solutions. Evaluate each option based on feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and alignment with business objectives.
Implement and Monitor: Select the most viable solution and create an action plan. Monitor progress, gather feedback, and make necessary adjustments to ensure effective implementation.
IV. Improving Business Skills
Enhancing your business skills is an ongoing process. Here are some practical ways to improve your skills:
Continuous Learning: Stay updated with industry trends, technologies, and best practices through books, online courses, podcasts, and industry events.
Seek Mentorship: Engage with experienced professionals who can provide guidance, share insights, and offer support based on their own business experiences.
Networking Opportunities: Attend business conferences, join professional associations, and actively participate in networking events to expand your connections and learn from others.
Embrace Feedback: Seek feedback from customers, employees, and mentors to identify areas for improvement and make necessary adjustments.
Develop Emotional Intelligence: Enhance your ability to understand and manage emotions, build relationships, and communicate effectively.
Delegate and Empower: Learn to delegate tasks and empower your team members, allowing you to focus on higher-level strategic activities.
Engage in Critical Thinking: Develop critical thinking skills by analysing complex problems, evaluating multiple perspectives, and making informed decisions.
Mastering the right business skills is a prerequisite for running a successful enterprise. These skills empower entrepreneurs and business owners to overcome challenges, solve problems, and seize opportunities in the dynamic and competitive business landscape. By developing and honing the essential skills discussed in this article, individuals can enhance their decision-making abilities, adapt to changing markets, and build thriving businesses. Continuous learning, seeking mentorship, embracing feedback, and practicing emotional intelligence are practical ways to improve business skills. Remember, the journey to becoming a successful entrepreneur is a continuous one, and investing in your business skills is an investment in your future success.
Many very large businesses have already announced profit warnings. others have stopped recruiting. Central banks are stopping the release of cheap money into the economy. we have said for sometime now, that a global recession is coming to your business. have you prepared your business? What are you waiting for?
Rising unemployment is a common painful fact of a recession. With the current shortage of skills and high employment levels, many are burying their head in the sand about the economic factors which will bring about a global recession within the next 12 to 18 months. Too busy with other problems to think that far ahead, I hear you say? an understandable retort when business resources are limited. however, if you only invest your time and money in fighting current fires, you will always be reactive fighting current fires. taking some time to be more proactive, will enable you to breathe more easily and fight fewer fires.
How can your business prepare for and weather the coming global recession storm:
Simply battening down the hatches may not be the way to survive. Waiting for the storm to blow over may result in your business being blown away!
Stopping your investment in the right places of your business would be a mistake. knowing which parts of your business are the right parts is the tricky question.
Now, before the storm, maybe the time to review your business strategy and come up with an alternative risk management strategy to survive the change in business environment.
Will your business survive and thrive during a recession, perhaps a longer depression?
How can a business grow during a recession
Do you think keeping what you’ve got is the only business strategy to survive a long recession? Could you grow your way out of a recession:
Cutting your customer base yourself may be one way to shore-up your business resilience. Most of a business profit comes from a small percentage of its customer base. If your customers just bring turnover not profit they may sink your business not save it!
Boosting your productivity maybe an easier win then you think. Working smarter with your existing resources and assets will help your business sweat out more money.
Reaching out to more customers and markets maybe a better way to survive. Some of your competitors may have too much fat on their prices. Others may be great businesses but too much debt holes their business development strategy and they may go under. Other businesses will have opportunities from the survival of the fittest not necessarily the biggest or best.
Some businesses and business owners will get rich during the coming global recession. Your business will be affected by the recession, but it doesn’t need to be all bad or fatal.
Business strategy during recession
Managing debt down will be a crucial part of survival. That does not mean stopping spending. It means taking care to spend your money on the right things during a recession.
You need to look again at your decision-making. What are your priorities in a recession, compared to normal business environment?
Laying off workers may be a lazy business strategy. it is an easy obvious way to cut costs but it may mean that you are cutting your own business throat.
What is your business really good at? How can you do more of it? controlling cash flow and unnecessary spending is important, but that does not mean cutting investment in your business future.
Just because a business is big does not mean it will survive, nor does it mean that small businesses will suffer the most during a recession. Some of the biggest businesses that look amazing may have underlying issues that will sink them. small businesses who react quickly may be able to pick up the pieces.
How does the economy affect businesses
The more resilient a business is, the more likely it will be to survive the multitude of risks facing businesses in the current business climate. As a business leader you may not have control over all risk events which occur in the global economy, but you can be prepared for every eventuality.
Recessions affect different businesses differently. Do you understand what could sink your business? Are your risk control measures working? Have you put in place appropriate risk control measures for impending imminent future risks that may develop. is your business prepared?
Want to become a member of our Business Risk Management Club?
There is a finite amount of stuff available that people and businesses want. It is difficult to manage the risks of accessing, sharing and using limited resources. The problem of scarcity and choice lies at the heart of our immediate and at least medium term business risks and lifestyle quality. Scarcity requires choice from buyers and sellers.
How can we work together to overcome the problems of scarcity
How can we work together to overcome the problems of scarcity
Basic Economic Problem Solution
Working together to grow faster and shelter from bad risk events is the only way to survive and prosper in an increasingly dangerous world.
The price of a share does not tell you the value of a business. The type of business valuation is key in decision-making. What business valuation you are assessing will depend on why you are making a point of valuing a business:
The value of a business an employee will want will depend on why the employee is working for a business. Some employees live from pay cheque to pay cheque and regard the business to be worth merely the value of pay received each month or week. Other employees see a business as a stepping stone to next career progression and value the business reputation in the marketplace rather than a monetary value will be of more importance. Other employees want to be fully engaged in the mission of the business and need to be kept fully onboard with business plans to place positive value in the business.
Investors traditionally have sought capital appreciation, income or both from their investment in a business. Anything that detracted from profit or revenue generation may not have been welcomed. The proliferation of the Woke Society, if you are ungenerous or socially responsible if kinder, means that ethics social responsibility and good governance (ESG) has meant that many investors want better holistic enterprise risk management (ERM) performance. New jobs have even been created at board level to reflect this, such as Chief Impact Officer responsible for every process that generates any kind of social and environmental impact (as defined by the company’s mission and values).
Customers are valuing businesses differently. Many more consumers use their spending power to punish poorly managed businesses in field of ESG or ERM, and reward businesses performing well in the ESG or ERM arena. We used the word arena deliberately as ESG or risk management in general is now often used as a show pony or window dressing when in reality the business is performing badly in the real world of managing all business risks well.
Business leaders will respond to regulation of their business but in the heavily regulated world of financial services, for example, we still find yearly evidence of poor risk management by banks despite nearly two decades passing from the time the banks nearly sent the whole world tumbling over the abyss to total societal collapse due to the banks regulators and politicians failing to manage business risks holistically well in 2008.
Scanning Horizon For Business Threats and Opportunities
Many are frightened that the next 12 to 24 months will see a long period of economic depression due to failure to manage risks well
Think inflation is bad now – you ain’t seen nothing yet! A food shortage will result in millions starving in 3rd world countries and hyper food inflation in 1st world countries. We are not going to starve but we are going to pay for poor business and economic risk management.
The share price of many businesses over the next couple of years are going to collapse. However, the same businesses value will not have fallen, just the share price. Investors including the person in the street through pensions will see the value of their retirement fund drop off a cliff. Employees will lose their pay cheque to pay cheque existence as many will lose their job. Consumers will pay more for the same or poorer products and services. What are you going to do to protect yourself?
Employees need to keep to keep abreast of the health of their employers business. They may even be wise to pick a different employer who is stronger if they can assess which businesses are strong and which businesses are weak.
Investors maybe better out of the marketplace, or keep up with regular investing. It is counter intuitive. However few can pick the moment of a bear market turning into a depression. The only good thing about a depression is that it will be a good time to invest! Likewise no one can identify the bottom of a market. One solution is to get out of the market but the other is to invest through the depression to get the benefit of the lows to compensate for the loss of the highs.
Consumers need to diversify to protect themselves from loss of money in one area. Cash is king just now. However globally governments are even destroying the value of cash in more ways than one! Real wealth is having enough money to pay for your lifestyle without needing to work, for as long as possible. You may outwardly have money but wealth is measured in financial freedom not in currency or other assets. The value of many perhaps most assets is set to fall.
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Surely we are not going to swing from fastest economic growth to economic depression?
Business Strategy During Recession
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How do you recession-proof your business?
How can we protect from inflation?
How to prepare for inflation at home?
The impact of recession on businesses is severe. However inflation can be the precursor of a recession. Central banks are charged with the responsibility of keeping inflation under control partly to ward against recession or depression. Healthy inflation is generally regarded as 2 percent. Many countries are experiencing at least 3 times healthy inflation. Some key economies are experiencing much more than that just now. In other words the biggest economies are suffering from very unhealthy inflation levels. Most central banks have not responded fast enough and should gave started increasing interest rates earlier to control inflation. Some have not even started to control inflation. The long-tail effect of increasing interest rates means that for next 6 months at least inflation will remain out of control. The war in Ukraine may even mean inflation is uncontrollable for years. Out if control inflation leads to a recession at best and depression at worst!
Now is not the time to pat yourself on the back. Surviving pandemic was good, but the next existential threats to your business are already here or rushing towards you.
Rising inflation means that consumers and business decision-makers have the same money but it doesn’t go as far as it once did. The end result is that they buy fewer products and services. Inflation is a driver of a recession. Back to back crisis’s caused by pandemic, war, fuel, energy, fertiliser and food shortages or rising prices could result in extended global recession that turns into a global depression. The global pandemic caused the deepest recession since the Second World War and the world has used all its tools, including record low interest rates and extended Quantitative Easing QE, to scramble back out of the recession. However it means the world is particularly vulnerable just now – with economic risk management tools exhausted or trying to recover.
What Can Governments Do To Reduce Inflation
Reducing Inflation Strategies
Inflation is the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It can be caused by a variety of factors, including rising costs of production, increased demand for goods and services, and monetary policy decisions made by central banks.
Governments can take several measures to reduce inflation, including:
Monetary policy: Central banks can raise interest rates to curb inflation. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Fiscal policy: Governments can reduce government spending and increase taxes to slow down economic growth and reduce demand for goods and services.
Price controls: Governments can impose price controls on certain goods and services to keep prices from rising too quickly. However, this can lead to shortages and reduced incentives for producers to supply goods and services.
Supply-side policies: Governments can take steps to increase the supply of goods and services, such as by investing in infrastructure and education, and by reducing regulations that limit the ability of firms to produce goods and services.
Flexible exchange rates: Governments can allow their currency to fluctuate in value against other currencies. A stronger currency will make imports cheaper and can help to reduce inflation.
Price stability target: Central banks and governments can jointly agree on a target for inflation, and use monetary and fiscal policy to achieve that target.
It’s important to note that reducing inflation is not always the best course of action for an economy. Sometimes, a moderate level of inflation can be beneficial for economic growth, especially in developing countries. It’s important for governments to weigh the costs and benefits of different policies to reduce inflation and make the best decision for their economy.
Many central banks have an inflation target of between 2 percent and 3 percent – seen has healthy level of inflation
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In conclusion, governments have several tools at their disposal to reduce inflation, including monetary and fiscal policy, price controls, supply-side policies, flexible exchange rates, and price stability target. However, it’s important to consider the costs and benefits of each policy before implementing them.
Strategies for business survival during a recession
Businesses fold quickly during a recession. Before you know it, you are losing both suppliers and customers. Both can damage your business and even threaten an otherwise successful business survival. Set a Key Performance Indicator KPI to help you monitor your risk management in this area of your business. A Key Control Indicator KCI could be that no more than 10 percent of your key supply’s come from any single supplier. Likewise a KCI could be that no more than 10 percent comes from a single customer. If you stick to your KCI then the failure of any one customer or supplier is not going to pull your business down with their failure to manage recession risk.
What you set your KCIs at will vary depending on your financial strength, type of industry and current resources. You may never hit your KCIs but they flag up when action is needed or your progress towards better recession risk control.
Expanding your customer base is not just about expanding your business. It is about protecting your business from loss of business. Expanding your suppliers could increase the overall cost of supply during good times thereby limiting your profit. Your management team needs to decide what level of risk you are exposed to, the type of risks and your appetite and resilience to risk.
We are moving from pandemic survival to rapid business development. If you focus your energy on growing your business faster organically with new customers you can ride the economic wave through the various threats to your business.
Just before a business falls flat on its face it can seem that the world was its oyster! The world seems to be dragging itself out of the economic damage of a global pandemic. We are seeing economic expansion at or near record rates across the world. Wages are rising and many countries have unfilled job vacancies galore! What could go wrong? Answer is out of control inflation turning into a recession and high unemployment.
The world has shot its bolt. Due to the economic impact of the global pandemic central banks have slashed interest rates to the bone and in a few cases into the bone! There is no wiggle room left to cope with another economic disaster. Trouble is nobody told our political leaders and they have led us into the next economic disaster on back of an inflationary crisis on back of war, food crisis and energy crisis. You wait for a financial crisis to come around every 10 years then several come along at once!
Inflation may have given you a good opportunity to inflate your prices. The good times are slipping away. Your pricing model may have brought in easy money that will be useful. Times are changing and you may think that new opportunities are appearing for business growth.
Stay on top of your business changing needs:
Profits are cut due to rising costs due to inflationary pressures. Make sure you focus on market prices to seize opportunities appearing in your marketplace. Instead of raising your prices think about reducing your costs or making your offering more attractive to new customers.
Cash is king now! Take steps to improve or maintain cash flow. Pay later and get paid quicker.
Win new customers. Make sure you your marketing and sales development budget is working hard for you.
As interest rates rise there will be bargains. Minimise your outgoings. Reduce your overheads.
Hopefully you took advantage of cheap money. However the days of cheap money have passed or are passing. Now is the time to think about paying off debt. The rising cost of debt could pull down countries never mind companies! Make sure your business is not wasting profit on back of your cost of debt. Controlling your costs will help you to be more competitive in tightening marketplace.
World central banks need to act more quickly and more aggressively to calm inflation rates around the world to prevent a global recession and perhaps even global depression from 2023 onwards. This includes increasing interest rates and increasing interest rates in bigger leaps and bounds.
A healthy level of inflation is generally considered to be around 2% per year.
Why 2 percent?
2% inflation per year is considered healthy because it allows for some economic growth while still maintaining stability in the purchasing power of money. It is a rate that is low enough to prevent rapid changes in the cost of goods and services, but high enough to encourage investments and borrowing. However, the specific level of inflation that is considered healthy can vary depending on a country’s economic conditions and goals.
Who thinks this?
The idea that 2% inflation is a healthy level is widely accepted among central banks and economists. This is because it provides a balance between stable prices and economic growth, and has been found to be compatible with low unemployment and stable financial markets in many countries. The Federal Reserve in the United States, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, among others, target an inflation rate of around 2%.
How do you reach this target?
Central banks use a variety of tools to reach their inflation target. The most common method is through the manipulation of interest rates. By adjusting interest rates, central banks can influence borrowing costs, which in turn can affect spending and investment decisions. This can then influence the overall level of demand in the economy, which affects prices.
In addition to interest rates, central banks can also use other monetary policy tools, such as buying and selling government securities in the open market, to reach their inflation target.
In some cases, central banks may also use forward guidance, where they provide information about their future plans for interest rates, to influence market expectations and help reach their inflation target.
It’s worth noting that hitting an exact inflation target can be challenging, and central banks may sometimes miss their target due to various economic and financial factors outside of their control.
Is inflation transitory?
Protecting your business from risk of recession and inflation
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Top Business Survival Tips
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