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Risks Business Leaders Fear Most : Geopolitical Risks 2024

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2024: Navigating the Political Storm – A Business Leader’s Guide to Risk Management

As we gaze into the crystal ball of 2024, the political landscape shimmers with both opportunity and peril. For business leaders, navigating this terrain requires not just a keen eye for the market, but an astute understanding of the political forces that can shape – or shatter – their best-laid plans. Let’s look at political risk insights and risk management strategies needed to mitigate the biggest political risks of the year ahead.

The Looming Giants: Four Major Political Risks of 2024

  1. The US Presidential Election: Buckle up, folks, it’s a wild ride. With the incumbent facing a resurgent opposition and a potential third-party candidate throwing a wrench in the gears, the 2024 US election promises to be a nail-biter. The volatility will spill over into global markets, impacting trade, investment, and even travel.

Quote: “Politics are almost as exciting as war, and quite as unpredictable.” – Winston Churchill

  1. Geopolitical Tensions: The simmering tensions between major powers, fuelled by ideological clashes and resource competition, threaten to boil over in 2024. From the South China Sea to the Ukraine conflict, businesses with footprints in these volatile regions must prepare for disruptions and potential sanctions.

Quote: “In times of conflict, the law falls silent.” – Marcus Tullius Cicero

  1. The Rise of Populism: The siren song of populism continues to enchant disillusioned voters, potentially ushering in leaders with unpredictable agendas and protectionist policies. Businesses reliant on open markets and global supply chains must adapt to navigate these shifting sands.

Quote: “A nation cannot exist half slave and half free.” – Abraham Lincoln

  1. Climate Change and Social Unrest: As the existential threat of climate change intensifies, so too does the potential for social unrest and political instability. Businesses operating in vulnerable regions must factor in the possibility of protests, civil disobedience, and even government clampdowns.

Quote: “The Earth has provided for life for billions of years… it will do so for billions more without us.” – Carl Sagan

Risk Management Toolbox: Strategies for Weathering the Storm

While the future is inherently uncertain, proactive risk management can turn challenges into opportunities. Here are some key strategies to consider:

  1. Scenario Planning: Develop multiple scenarios based on different political outcomes, allowing you to adapt and pivot quickly. Think of it as playing chess ahead of time, considering all your opponent’s possible moves.

  2. Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments and operations across diverse regions and markets, diluting your exposure to any single political risk.

  3. Lobbying and Engagement: Build relationships with policymakers and key stakeholders. Proactive engagement can ensure your voice is heard and your interests are considered as policies are formulated.

  4. Crisis Communication: Have a clear communication plan in place for navigating potential crises. Transparency and timely updates can mitigate reputational damage and build trust with stakeholders.

  5. Seek Expert Guidance: Don’t go it alone. Leverage the expertise of political risk consultants who can provide tailored insights and strategies for navigating complex political landscapes.

Remember, the key to successful risk management is not predicting the future, but being prepared for whatever it throws your way. By understanding the biggest political risks of 2024 and implementing these proactive strategies, you can turn uncertainty into a competitive advantage and steer your business toward continued success. And as Sun Tzu wisely advised, “Know the enemy and know yourself; in every battle, you will then be victorious.”

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How accurate are IMF economic forecasts?

What is the IMF economy forecast for 2023 for UK?

What is the IMF prediction for the UK in 2023?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been criticised for its wild economic forecast swings for the UK in 2023. In April, the IMF predicted that the UK economy would contract by 0.3% in 2023. However, in July, the IMF upgraded its forecast to 0.4% growth. This sharp reversal has led some to question the IMF’s credibility and to suggest that it is politically motivated.

There are a number of factors that could explain the IMF’s wild forecast swings. One possibility is that the IMF was simply wrong in its initial assessment of the UK economy. The UK economy has been facing a number of challenges in 2023, including rising inflation, a cost of living crisis, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, the UK economy has also shown some resilience in recent months. GDP growth has been positive, and unemployment has remained low.

Another possibility is that the IMF was caught off guard by the UK government’s response to the economic challenges. In April, the UK government announced a number of measures to help businesses and consumers cope with the rising cost of living. These measures included a windfall tax on energy companies and a cut to fuel duty. The IMF may have underestimated the impact of these measures on the UK economy.

Whatever the reason for the IMF’s wild forecast swings, it has led some to question the organisation’s credibility. The IMF is an influential organisation that provides economic advice to governments around the world. If the IMF cannot be trusted to provide accurate economic forecasts, then its advice is less valuable.

The IMF’s credibility has also been damaged by its previous inaccurate predictions. In 2008, the IMF predicted that the global financial crisis would have a limited impact on the UK economy. However, the UK economy was one of the hardest hit by the crisis. The IMF’s inaccurate prediction led some to question whether the organisation was too close to the financial sector and whether it was not willing to challenge the status quo.

In addition to its inaccurate predictions, the IMF has also been criticised for its political bias. Some critics have argued that the IMF is more likely to give favourable advice to countries that are aligned with the United States. For example, the IMF was criticised for its handling of the Greek debt crisis. The IMF imposed harsh austerity measures on Greece, which many believe exacerbated the country’s economic problems.

The IMF’s wild forecast swings for the UK in 2023 and its previous inaccurate predictions have led some to question the organisation’s credibility and to suggest that it is politically motivated. The IMF will need to do more to restore its credibility if it wants to maintain its influence in the global economy.

In addition to the points raised above, there are a number of other factors that could be contributing to the IMF’s wild forecast swings for the UK. These include:

  • The complexity of the global economy, which makes it difficult to predict with certainty how events will unfold.
  • The uncertainty surrounding the UK’s future relationship with the European Union.
  • The changing political landscape in the UK.

The IMF is a valuable organisation that provides important economic advice to governments around the world. However, the IMF’s credibility has been damaged by its wild forecast swings and its previous inaccurate predictions. The IMF will need to do more to restore its credibility if it wants to maintain its influence in the global economy.

What is the IMF prediction for the UK in 2023? What is the IMF economy forecast for 2023? What is the IMF economic growth forecast for the UK? How accurate are IMF economic forecasts?
IMF Forecasting Incompetence? How accurate are IMF economic forecasts? IMF UK growth forecast 2023. Read on …
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How accurate are IMF economic forecasts?

There is always trouble ahead for business leaders

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And there are always opportunities to grow a business faster too. There are always leadership challenges regardless of era in business. Improve management of the biggest issues facing the business world today.

Learn how to overcome leadership challenges. Being a successful business leader means there will always be challenges. The business problems will change but it is naive to thing that your challenges are more difficult than the challenges other leaders have overcome in the past.

In the UK the biggest issues combined that impact on future business success is poor productivity and lack of skills. UK business leader must invest in capital assets including automation or machinery as well as people. Workers in the UK need dramatic upskilling. There has been a distinct lack of investment over the last decade that needs redressing over the next decade. Instead of whinging about lack of immigration UK business leaders need to be more innovative and invest in engaging existing workforce more.

We can achieve so much more than we are currently doing. There is a significant lack of investment in innovation and new ideas to overcome business challenges. Perhaps it is a hangover from the slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. Business leaders have thought about survival for so long that it has suppressed a more creative and innovative business world.

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Deutsche Bank currency guru says it’s ‘time to sell the dollar’ as greenback sees longest losing streak since 2021

The dollar has been on a losing streak in recent weeks, and a top currency strategist at Deutsche Bank is betting that the trend will continue.

George Saravelos, global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients on Thursday that he’s once again betting that the dollar will weaken against the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and other major currencies.

“We believe that the dollar’s recent weakness is more than just a temporary correction,” Saravelos said. “We see a number of factors that are likely to keep the dollar under pressure in the coming months.”

One of the factors that Saravelos is pointing to is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise rates several times this year in an effort to combat inflation. However, Saravelos believes that the Fed’s rate hikes will be less effective than they have been in the past because the global economy is now in a different phase.

“The global economy is no longer in a synchronised growth upswing,” Saravelos said. “This means that the Fed’s rate hikes are likely to have a more muted impact on economic activity and inflation than they would have in the past.”

Another factor that Saravelos is pointing to is the strength of the euro. The euro has been rising in recent weeks, and Saravelos believes that this trend is likely to continue.

“The euro is benefiting from a number of factors, including the strong performance of the European economy,” Saravelos said. “We believe that the euro is likely to continue to outperform the dollar in the coming months.”

Saravelos’s call is a reversal of his previous stance. In January, he said that the dollar was “oversold” and that he expected it to rebound. However, he has since changed his view, and he now believes that the dollar is likely to continue to weaken.

Saravelos’s call is in line with the views of other currency analysts. A recent survey by Bloomberg found that 60% of currency analysts believe that the dollar will weaken in the coming months.

If Saravelos is right, it could have a significant impact on the global economy. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and its value has a major impact on the prices of commodities, assets, and goods. If the dollar weakens, it could lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth.

Of course, it’s impossible to say for sure what will happen to the dollar in the future. However, Saravelos’s call is a warning that the greenback’s days of dominance may be coming to an end.

In addition to the factors mentioned by Saravelos, there are a few other reasons why the dollar could continue to weaken.

  • The US trade deficit is widening. This means that the US is importing more goods and services than it is exporting. This puts downward pressure on the dollar.
  • The US economy is growing more slowly than other major economies. This means that investors are less likely to hold dollars as a safe haven.
  • The US political landscape is becoming more polarised. This could lead to uncertainty and volatility in the markets, which could also weigh on the dollar.

Of course, there are also some factors that could support the dollar. For example, if the Fed raises interest rates more aggressively than expected, it could boost the dollar’s value. However, overall, the trend seems to be pointing towards a weaker dollar.

What does this mean for investors?

If you are an investor who is holding dollars, you may want to consider hedging your bets by investing in other currencies. You may also want to consider investing in assets that are less sensitive to changes in the dollar’s value.

If you are a business that exports goods or services, you may benefit from a weaker dollar. This is because a weaker dollar will make your goods or services cheaper for foreign buyers.

Overall, the outlook for the dollar is uncertain. However, there are a number of factors that could lead to a weaker dollar in the coming months. Investors and businesses should be aware of these factors and should adjust their strategies accordingly

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Financial success always beats other stakeholder interests?

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Do you want financial success in terms on capital value increase and dividend increases? Are you prepared to sacrifice the interests of other stakeholders to achieve this? Is long term business sustainability less important than short term financial success?

You can be very financially successful and still fail. When financial success is pursued at the expense of other stakeholders interest you have a recipe for catastrophic failure eventually.

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Shareholders and customers are stakeholders in the business performance not just senior management team. Pushing for bonuses at the expense of other stakeholders interests has always resulted in catastrophic losses.

Pick a more balanced risk management strategy for the benefit of all stakeholders

The financial crisis in 2008 is the most recent near systemic collapse due to poor senior management team business decisions. The senior management teams were very good at creating extra value for themselves which will have long term benefits but their customers and shareholders in the financial crisis of 2008 have lost big time and many have yet to recover lost business value.

The sad fact is that shareholders or rather their representatives pension and investment fund managers have accepted and fuelled the poor decision making of senior management teams by being part of the problem. They have misrepresented big business owners long terms interests by allow senior management teams to get away with bad business decision making that only interests the senior management teams not shareholders or customers.

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Senior management teams are not taking enterprise risk management methodology onboard. Too often they pay lip service to the principles and practices of enterprise risk management.

  • Poor risk management cultures continue to dominate
  • Poor compliance standards are being accepted and even encouraged
  • Systemically poor risk management practices flourish on basis of a level playing field. They are doing it to make money so so should we

Enterprise risk management practices and processes need to be improved to prevent future catastrophic systemic collapses in business.

Adopt enterprise risk management methodology to improve your business performance

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Governments and self regulating bodies need to drive business improvements with carrots and sticks. Personal accountability at board level is necessary before good enterprise risk management practices will be embedded. If business leaders cannot see the wood from the trees than they need to be forced to open their eyes.

Short term greed is prevalent within our corporate structures. If our oversight by governments and professional bodies do not pull their their fingers out then economic and social catastrophes lie ahead in the next decade.

There is more to business than short term profit maximisation. However too many business leaders do not hold to this view. Their greed will take us closer to the cliff edge if they are not forcefully stopped.

Plan for long term business resilience

Do our business leaders and politicians really understand corporate risks and how this will impact on society?

Do they care? Too often the answer must be no. So they must be made to care by other people in our capitalist society. Capitalism is the best system on which to base our future but it should not be left to greedy people to rape the good that comes from capitalism.

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Profit maximising corporations are not the flagships of capitalism. There is more to business life than profit. Reconciling business priorities is not easy. It is made easier with enterprise risk management principles and practices. Develop a more successful stakeholder management strategy for your business with BusinessRiskTV.

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UK Economic Future

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Is printing money a Ponzi scheme designed to bail governments out and create asset bubbles to make rich richer and poor poorer?

The claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a controversial one. Some economists argue that it is true, as printing money can lead to inflation, which erodes the value of money saved by citizens and investors. Others argue that printing money can be a necessary tool to stimulate economic growth, and that the negative effects of inflation can be managed.

Here are some of the potential consequences of printing money:

  • Inflation: When the government prints more money, it increases the amount of money in circulation. This can lead to inflation, as people have more money to spend and demand for goods and services increases. Inflation can make it more expensive to buy goods and services, and can erode the value of savings.
  • Devaluation of the currency: If the government prints too much money, it can lead to the devaluation of the currency. This means that the currency will become worth less in terms of other currencies. This can make it more expensive for businesses to import goods and services, and can make it more difficult for people to travel abroad.
  • Unintended consequences:Printing money can also have unintended consequences. For example, it can lead to asset bubbles, as people invest in assets in the hope that their value will increase. This can lead to a financial crisis if the asset bubble bursts.

It is important to note that the effects of printing money can vary depending on the specific circumstances. For example, the effects of printing money during a recession may be different from the effects of printing money during a period of economic growth.

In conclusion, the claim that printing money by western central banks is a Ponzi scheme is a complex one. There are both potential benefits and risks associated with printing money, and the effects can vary depending on the specific circumstances.

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Sure there is uncertainty about the UKs economic future. When has there been certainty? The key is to find ways to grow whatever the economic future or at least protect your business so it is resilient and survives.

There are undeniable challenges ahead for UK business leaders. Identify them assess their impact on your business and set a risk management plan and strategy for business resilience.

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Existential risks business leaders should be aware of today with BusinessRiskTV

We are in an existential crisis on so many fronts. Geopolitics threatens around every corner domestically in UK and around the world. Technology could create societal threats and even AI attacks on humans! Pandemic threats are closer than we could ever imagine last century.

However each of these threats presents opportunities to take the upside risk. Turn the threat into an opportunity to grow and prosper.

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