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The pandemic, the war, the energy crisis, the food crisis and the health crisis will create economic chaos over the next couple of years. That does not mean you might as well shut up shop and go home! When chaos causes other business leaders to fold you need to become even more creative, flexible and dynamic. To prepare for the ensuing economic disaster you need to build on your hard work managing effects of pandemic to cover more issues including continuing supply problems, rising costs and bad debt. You may have thought that now a couple of years after the pandemic started you could start to breath more easily. Unfortunately the economic effects of the pandemic were smoothed out with unprecedented monetary support from global governments. However their magic money tree has died! You are on your own now. Now we will see who really are the good business leaders.
We do not yet know and will never know with certainty, what key risks we will have to deal with in business. This is why we are horizon scanning for you. Our risk management experts are analysing and assessing new risks. We are researching and developing new risk management solutions. Subscribe for free to BusinessRiskTV to keep up to date with potential new threats and opportunities for your business.
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If you get your business risk management strategies right you will build in business resilience for any business risk events. If you get your business risk management strategies wrong your business performance may falter at best or your business may suffer fatal catastrophic collapse at worst.
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If you identify all the key threats and opportunities for your business plans you can make the most efficient use of your limited resources to prepare for all risk management actions.
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Making the most from the opportunities posed by the coronaviRus pandemic with BusinessRiskTV
Hopefully not all the effects of the coronavirus pandemic will ever be over. The pandemic has given the world a stop clock to look at life in business in other ways. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed to stop people dying but we have been given a once in a century opportunity to change for the better.
Coronavirus hits both supply and demand sides of global economy. CLICK HERE or email [email protected] entering code #CoronavirusRiskManagement.
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We may actually need more than one vaccine
Covid19 should really morph into something less or more deadly to survive and prosper so wherever we are we are a long way from returning to normal.
Instead of returning to normal and life in business being forever harder it could be easier and better.
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It is looking more likely that our leaders want to get back to business as usual not Business 2.1. This is understandable in terms of the complexity of getting over the worst of the pandemic. However all disasters present opportunities to change to transform into a better version of life in business.
For example around 40 percent of people in UK are still working from home compared to prepandemic rate of around 12 percent. One effect of this is to increase cost of working in short term but could it mean reduced costs of working in long term. Was it really necessary for so many people to commute to an office to work?
If the new normal postpandemic was 20 percent working from home it would mean the rest would commute every day as if it was the school holidays. Imagine how much easier that would be for all workers speed of distribution and the environment.
However that would destroy the value of many office blocks and some investments. Many of the UKs biggest property funds are frozen stopping investors withdrawing funds through fear the funds would collapse. How do you value assets post pandemic if people totally change their way of working.
How will retail recover? Will the High Street ever recover? Most retail experts feel that the world of retail may have changed forever. The virus may have turbo charged what was changing anyway but retailers and property valuations have now changed dramatically if society has changed irreversibly.
Our pension funds are no longer based on assets that are the same value. Will the value recover? It will but it will recover by basing investments in underlying assets fit for the purpose of the future not the past.
We may create a vaccine or vaccines for Covid19 and any morphed versions thereof. However if we are determined the impact of the virus will never be over. In a good way!
Could business leaders:
Continue to offer takeaway services or do deliveries from their restaurants?
Manufacture different products in addition to their core business products?
Maintain and hold on to local suppliers instead of using overseas suppliers in diversification of supply chain lines?
Explore online sales development to be more profitable?
Hold on to cost cutting measures to grow profit?
So much good and bad will flow from the pandemic. It is important not to miss out on the good as well has mitigate the bad. What opportunities and threats are in front of you will depend on your industry and perhaps location.
Now is the time to take the best strategic risk management decisions to come out of the coronavirus pandemic stronger than when you went into it
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Are you missing out on business opportunities to grow your business?
Reacting rather than proactively engaging all your business resources and effort on what really matters. Do you really know where your business is going or could go? Or has your business exposed itself to too much or too little business risk?
Most businesses are owned or led by clever hard working and ambitious leaders who just need business management strategy and risk management tools to enable them to make risk balanced business decisions confidently.
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Use our holistic enterprise wide risk management approach to business decision making to navigate your way through this global economic crisis
Understand the key threats and opportunities from the pandemic. Make choices more confidently. Alternatively pick from our armory your weapon of choice to protect and grow your business regardless of the future risks. Risk management consulting and training services can be selected to fit your every need.
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Manage the risk from the coronavirus as effectively as possible to protect and grow your business with BusinessRiskTV free tips advice and support
During the coronavirus pandemic there may be opportunities to grow. Changing what you do can produce new income. You maybe fortunate that that your business activity is relatively unaffected. Whatever your reasons we can help your business sell more online for free during the coronavirus pandemic.
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Coronavirus hits the global economy on both the supply and demand side BusinessRiskTV.com
Coronavirus threats to world economy. Coronavirus global economy impact. The coronavirus has not yet be officially acknowledged as a pandemic health risk. However it probably is already a pandemic health risk and is certainly a global economic pandemic spreading uncontrollably around world.
Although the world financial markets have had their worst time since the financial crisis in 2008 the actual impact of the coronavirus has yet to be felt and revealed. The financial markets are giving a glimpse into what is feared in future not what is happening now.
With just 36 cases in the UK it appears that the UK is relatively spared from the virus. The most worrying case out of the 36 is the one where the infected person has not been abroad and has not been in contact with anyone who has to his or her knowledge. Tracing the source is key to controlling and containing the spread of the coronavirus.
Many countries where the official numbers of coronavirus infection cases are so low is worrying
There are many countries where scepticism on figures inflates fear of a pandemic that may not be recoverable. China where the coronavirus originated from may have be slow to unveil the seriousness of the problem have been praised by World Health Organisation WHO for honest figures.
Some countries have different reasons to deliberately suppress news of an epidemic in the country. In addition there are countries which may not have the resources to identify the coronavirus. More worringly they also do not have the resources to stop the spread of the virus.
Other disasters in some parts of the world also have the potential to exasperate and accelerate the spread of the virus. What happens if the coronavirus infects refugees and economic migrants trying to escape to Europe via ItalyGreece Bulgaria and Spain. Germany not long ago took around one million of these people. If such numbers flowed again and they also had the coronavirus how much more quickly would the coronavirus spread throughout Europe? Exponentially fast!
Control of coronavirus COVID19 is unlikely especially as there is no vaccine
A vaccine by most estimates is unlikely to be identified until early 2021. Even when a vaccine has been found it then has to be manufactured in sufficient quantities to have a reduction in the spread of the virus never mind eliminated.
The coronavirus is likely to be with us until end of 2021 at the earliest never mind getting coronvirus spread under control this year.
Major sporting events like the Olympics this summer are unlikely to proceed. Whilst this creates obvious disappointment for the athletes supports and Japanese people it in one event creates massive economic loss for Japan Olympic sponsors and lots of products or services will not be sold if the Olympics is cancelled.
Businesses will face reduced performance at best and potentially even collapse
If you are not able to sell products or services how do you pay fixed costs never mind variable costs of being in business. Potentially fatal could be loss of the ability to pay your creditors who may close you down to try to get their money back.
Central banks around the world have yet to realise they have not recovered from the financial crisis in 2008. Their tools to tackle global recession including lowering interest rate and increasing quantitative easing QE are worn out. There is little manoeuvrability for central banks. In COVID19 terms central banks do not have very good vaccines left at their disposal to support economic growth.
Individual countries will undoubtedly fall into a recession due to the coronavirus COVID19
Countries like Italy already severely impacted by coronavirus were already teetering on the edge of recession. The coronavirus will push them over the edge. The northern part of Italy is the powerhouse of the Italian economy and much of it has already been shutdown. Can Italy really stop the spread which will make economic impact worse?
Even countries like USA can dramatically lose economic growth. Not all Americans have good access to healthcare services. If you cannot call upon your healthcare services to detect and help control the coronavirus spread then it could spread like wildfire in USA if it takes hold and it is close to taking hold now.
The coronavirus spread in poorer less developed countries is essentially unstoppable. How can parts of Middle EastAfricaAsia Central America and South America really contain spread of coronavirus. The how do you contain the spread from these areas to more wealthy parts of the world.
The economic impact is going to be so severe as it hits not just the supply side of the economy it cuts demand too
When disaster strikes businesses can stop supplying cause the risk event stops output abruptly. However the coronavirus dramatically cuts demand quickly too. People stop assembly in public in restaurants events bars concerts sporting events etc through fear of catching the coronavirus. They may start spending again when under control but we are looking at end of 2021 before this even has possibility of subsiding.
Other concerns include lack of scientific knowledge about coronavirus. The boffins do not know enough yet to be sure we will ever get this under control.
We do not know how long the virus can survive on surfaces when people cough or touch surfaces with contaminated hands.
We do not know if our normal ways of cleaning surfaces works on coronavirus.
There have been suggestions that people who have had coronavirus in recent months and recovered then contract virus again. Potentially not only will infected people not be immune in future but then may not be cured in first place or regenerate virus.
Many people across the world including the UK will now be thinking they have a mild illness or seasonal flu when in fact they have COVID19. When it can be contained you are tracing contacts to track down infection line to control risks. However when COVID19 is spreading unencumbered mildly infected people will be spreading virus unknowingly and then 80 percent infection across the UK and world starts to become realistic.
We do not know if the warmer weather will help the world to control the spread of the virus like it did with SARS or whether it will continue to spread.
We do not know if COVID19 will morph into something worse or morph into something less virulent.
Some estimates suggest that 80 percent of people in UK will contract the coronavirus COVID19 if it spreads uncontrollably in UK. The UK could well be on cusp of uncontrollable spread as the UK government gears up to act this week. On the positive side 80 percent of those who contract the virus only get mild manageable symptoms. On negative side a fatal rate of even 1 percent of UK population is still around half a million deaths.
One way some countries may manage the coronavirus risk is simply to let it spread across the whole country without stopping business activity or economic growth. If 80 percent have mild symptoms and 1 percent die what is their tolerance of risks. Will they chose economic slowdown or losing 1 percent of their population? This could mean the rest of the world suffer boomerang epidemics. What could make this less likely is that leaders can die of the virus just like their peasants!
Safety at work and managing health and safety of your workforce
Employers have a duty to take reasonable steps to protect their workers. This includes protection from exposure to coronvirus. This has obvious implications about travelling to coronavirus hotspots but also includes the coronavirus coming to your workplace. The coronavirus could change forever how we do business in future. If and when the spread of the coronavirus is brought under control we may find it more sensible to have less contact face to face and more online communication.
Ocado in UK who deliver to more wealthy customers have already announced a jump in the number of people ordering online for food and drink delivery to home. This is just one example of winners as well as losers from COVID19 outbreak.
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We are in the foothills of the coronavirus pandemic. Yes it is a pandemic despite WHOs caution. How you manage the risks to your business will have limitations but where you can control the risks you must start implement your business continuity plan now not when when a full blown pandemic is sweeping across the world.
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Adversity is the mother of invention. Adversity and success have a close working relationship. However it does not have to be your business that suffers the business adversity. A strong business has a developed and tested business continuity plan BCP. The BCP will not only help you to maintain your business to survive adversity but it will help you identify ways to bring forward business improvements or seize new business opportunities.
Necessity is the mother of invention. If you have to find a new solution for your business you will find it. Human beings are very clever. Much more intelligent than we realise. However adversity can unveil otherwise hidden abilities to do things better than before adversity hit.
Entrepreneurs and business leaders who overcome adversity
Top entrepreneurs and business leaders quickly identify and exploit opportunities from adversity. The adversity suffered maybe that of your competitors rather than your own business.
Sometimes benefiting from adversity comes from increased demand. Private jet hire cannot cope with current demand due to the coronavirus or Covid19. Thousands of people have died and many tens of thousands have been infected most in China. Commercial airlines like British Airways stopped flying into or out of China due to coronavirus outbreak. Many cannot or do not want to book a flight out of China. Many do not want to fly anywhere with other people they do not know. The result for private jet hire companies is more demand than they can supply. This will boost private jet hire revenue and profit.
The opportunity to grow from adversity is mainly about the change of demand potentially with a reduction in supply. Sometimes profiting from adversity just comes from a reduction in supply. The collapse of a business in your industry may mean you then have the opportunity to sell more and sell more profitably. Thomas Cook holiday and travel business collapsed in September 2019. Many people lost their jobs but many were subsequently taken on by Hays Travel who massively expanded their business within just a few months. TUI travel business had its best month in January 2020. Other holiday and travel related businesses have massively grown on the back of the collapse of Thomas Cook.
The key is to protect your business with a business continuity plan and to be dynamic enough to be prepared to capitalise on potential shifts for demand for your type of business. This includes being very clear on where you want your business to be in x years time and how you could get there. If you know where you are going you can perhaps more easily bring forward your business development plans in the event of a significant risk event not affecting your business directly.
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Understanding your business risk profile is an important step to making better risk based business management decisions. Identify the threats and opportunities your business faces now or will do in future. Assess the risks of this uncertainty to your business objectives. Your resulting business risk profile will help you make better business decisions. Focus your limited business resources on the risks which will bring you greatest reward of business resilience and business growth.
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Profiling your business risks will help you to stop wasting time and money. You can also use your business risk profile to monitor the impact or lack of impact on your business performance.
Prepare for and manage key business risks your business faces today and tomorrow. Learn from past business risk management events your business experienced or other businesses experienced so you do not have to.
Make sure all your employees know your critical business risks. Create a more effective business risk management framework to allocate responsibilities and accountability for managing business risks.
Your business risk profile should not be a one off exercise. It should not just sit in a file with a to do list ticked. Use your own business risk to mitigate potential threats and maximise business development opportunities. Holistically manage the whole business with the best use of available existing business resources.
Enterprise risk management methodology should be applied to strategic operational and project uncertainties. Inform your decision making process with the whole picture not just part.
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