Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023

Exploring preparation for a global recession with a businessrisktv.com

What happens to commodity prices in a recession

The coming global recession will slash demand for oil copper and the like. Prices for most commodities will fall. If the world falls into depression commodity prices will fall off a cliff including oil.

Some prices can rise temporarily as people seek a safe haven. People may flee to gold or a few commodities that they think will safe harbour their money during a recession. However a depression, which is more and more likely, causes most commodity prices to collapse.

June’s weaker demand for commodities signals that an economic global recession is coming closer.

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Global recession is necessary to stop runaway global inflation. The hard landing is the only option now available due to the lacklustre response to control inflation by Central banks and global national government.

Agricultural demand and energy demand is likely to keep rising during the autumn and winter and will sustain high commodity prices. This is likely to be aggravated by poor geopolitical decision-making by incompetent national leaders and global bodies like WHO, UN and WEF puppet masters and pied pippers particularly as it relates to food, water and energy. It is likely that another health crisis will emerge in the autumn winter and spring and this is likely to be managed in a restrictive way due to the propensity of these international bodies to take more and more health and economic risk management control. In addition, as demand falls due to rising inflation it can be combined with increased supply chain disruption imposed by recommended risk management action by international bodies that national governments adopt. Worse WHO wants overseeing overriding control of the next wave of the pandemic or next health pandemic.

Demand is likely to stay the same or slightly lower, but our leaders can change the supply up or down with their decisions. Reducing supply will push up prices.

Global stagflation is a certainty. When not if.

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Global commodity prices

Wheat and oil future prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures. Weaker commodity prices in June indicate we are transitioning to a global recession. Although commodity prices will fall, inflation will increase and stay high whilst growth turns to recession. For example there will be less demand for oil, oil prices will fall, but prices of goods and services will remain high.

Surviving global recession: how do you prepare for a recession

Businesses that can offer business discounts and consumer discounts are more likely to survive as more people become price conscious.

Businesses that supply essentials or luxury items at a discount offer more in the marketplace compared to those businesses who have let their own costs of being in business balloon and cannot offer deals and discounts.

  • Discount grocery and retail stores tend to have more footfall during a recession. Many supermarkets take advantage of their customers during the good times and suffer a loss of business and profitability when recessionary precious hit the consumers household budget.
  • People still die during recession! After the management of global risks over the last two years more people will die. businesses which cater for death are likely to perform strongly throughout a recession.
  • People turn to drink and drugs during a recession! Businesses providing alcohol and drugs will perform strongly during the coming recession.
  • You still have to pay your taxes! Accountants and tax advisors are likely to still perform well during the recession.
  • Everyone can afford a bit of lippy! Cosmetic businesses can perform well during a recession.

As for the rest of businesses, they must fully understand what’s important and what is not for their particular business model. Offering more value for money will become more important.

Wheat and oil prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures market
Global recession 2023

Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023

Poor Risk Management Case Study

Exploring consequences of poor risk management with BusinessRiskTV

There are often good reasons for poor risk management. That does make poor risk management acceptable. Causes of poor risk management are varied. They include poor risk management culture, an inadequate enterprise risk management framework with accepted risk owners and risk supervisors as well as lack of effective enterprise-wide risk assessment process.

We believe there are business experts out there who want to improve the quality of enterprise risk management. Our introductory risk management toolbox talks are designed to open up your mind to more innovative ways to doing more business with less uncertainty. If you like our approach, you will have the opportunity to become a member of BusinessRiskTV for 12 months to protect your business better and grow your business faster.

Misconception Of Actual Real Risks Can Destroy A Good Business
Misconception Of Actual Real Risks Can Destroy A Good Business

Failure To Manage Enterprise Risks Vs Failure Of Risk Managers Risk Management Toolbox Talk

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In this context we do not just mean people with Risk Manager in their job title. We mean people who should take ownership of specific key enterprise risks as well as the people charged with monitoring or supervising risks including making sure risk management is embedded within the day to day activities of the business or enterprise.

Do you know if your business is making good or bad enterprise risk management decisions? Pandemic risk management is a good example of good and bad risk management – under pressure we make good and bad decisions. Every day pre-pandemic managers of business risk are under pressure. Post-pandemic managers of risk will remain under pressure.

This enterprise risk management toolbox talk focuses on understanding business risks better and how to make better business decisions to build business resilience and boost business performance. Because your time is so valuable we will complete our introduction to better enterprise risk management in no more than 30 minutes.

Title: Failure To Manage Enterprise Risks Vs Failure Of Risk Managers
Date: Wednesday, 6th January, 2021
Time: 5:00-5:30 p.m. GMT
Speaker: Keith Lewis, BusinessRiskTV

In this enterprise risk management toolbox talk we will cover:

  • Taking personal ownership of enterprise risks.
  • Understanding the true level of risk facing your business.
  • Identifying risk management action to protect your business better and grow it faster.

Save the date for introduction to how to improve your management of business risks to boost your business resilience and performance.

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Participants at introductory online risk management toolbox talk can also put themselves forward as business risk experts at future more advanced online workshop events to share your expert business knowledge and promote their business interests. Are you a risk management expert in your country, industry or specific risk topic? Get in touch with us if this is you.

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How To Take Over The World

Many risk events are possible. However how do you manage your resources cost effectively to control risks whilst boosting business performance?

When beginning the risk management process identify risks that could impact on your business objectives. Look at the whole business at once rather than individual silos functions or departments.

Do not make assumptions at the beginning about the level of risk or effectiveness of risk control measures. Assume that what you currently do risk management wise will not work or not work well enough to control risks.

Consult experts within your business at all levels and experts outside of your business who may have an understanding of your risks. Focus your attention on key internal and external drivers of risk that may have significant impact on your business objectives.

Your business risk exposure needs to be right for your risk management culture. What is your appetite for risk? How much risk can your business tolerate? Getting the balance right is key for sustainable business success.

Reduce or eliminate threats as soon as they appear on the horizon. Seize new business opportunities before your competitors do. Anticipate and plan for future risks. React quickly to current or unexpected risk events.

Risk analysis and Holistic Enterprise Wide Risk Management Approach Will Improve Your Business Decision Making To Boost Business Performance

Manage risks better. Minimise the impact of risk on your business plans. Manage potential problems easier quicker and less expensively. Stop the undermining of key business initiatives or projects by risk events. Explore possible future threats.

Identify business opportunities for growth. Back the best ones to maximise return in investment of time and money. Boost the profit from the best new ideas. Manage opportunities for greater success better.

Create the right risk management framework and enterprise wide risk assessment process for your business

The source of your business risks can be wide and varied. Often they are specific to your business. Sometimes the affect just your industry or geographic location. Occasionally they affect most of the world like the financial crisis of 2008 or global pandemic like 2020.

The impact on your business maybe life giving like if your business is a deep cleaning business or face mask manufacturer in coronavirus outbreak. Or risk events can destroy your business and it may never recover. Your risk management assessment and approach to risk control needs to be tailored to your business.

Not all risks are bad and bad risk events can be good for your specific business in so many different ways. For example the coronavirus tragically will kill thousands of people. In addition many businesses will fail including many of your competitors. Out of the flames the phoenixes will rise. The challenge is to make sure your business and your people survive and prosper no matter what risks are thrown at your business.

Put your great ideas into action with more confidence. Continue to be optimistic about your future. The way your business could and perhaps should change forever not just to get through coronavirus. Learn the lessons from horrifically tragic risk events. Seize the opportunities coming from the 4th industrial revolution. Survive and prosper today tomorrow and then next day no matter what risks you face no matter where you do business and no matter what industry you are in.

Some risks hit you like a ton of bricks. Other risks are more subtle. They creep up on you. You do not know that you are at risk until it can be too late. Enterprise wide risk management means continuous tweaking and adjustment. What is right today may not work tomorrow. The key is to review what has happened but keep your eye on the horizon to ensure you are prepared. Whether you produce the risks internally or have external risks imposed upon your business know what to do when to do it and get to where you want to be regardless.

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Enterprise-wide risk management encompasses an effective enterprise-wide risk assessment process. Realise the importance of enterprise wide risk management for your business performance. Use enterprise wide risk assessment principles practices and processes to set strategic operational and project objectives and embed to ensure objectives are delivered. Tap into enterprise wide risk management consulting services.

Are you wasting the resources you already have? Could your business be more productive? Does your business operate as individuals not a team? Do your business functions operate to achieve their own aims not business goals? Why are you not reaching more new customers with your great business?

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Bring key employees and external experts together to identify threats and opportunities for growth. Analyse and assess critical risks that impact on your business objectives. Implement holistic enterprise wide actions to manage top enterprise risks better. Access your guide to enterprise wide risk assessment for your business.

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Our enterprise wide risk assessment training and consultancy services help you to develop your own risk management capability. The aim is to boost your business performance with less uncertainty.

Match your enterprise wide risk management approach to your attitude to risk and enterprise culture. Deal with external and internal enterprise threats more consistently and cost effectively. Identify and evaluate best opportunities for business development.

Build a stronger enterprise wide risk management framework for your business to assess top risks that need to be managed if you are to achieve enhanced business success with more confidence.

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Enterprise-wide Risk Assessments

Proven Steps to Mitigating Business Risks: A UK Business Leader’s Guide to Conducting an Enterprise-Wide Risk Assessment

An enterprise-wide risk assessment is a comprehensive evaluation of all types of risks that a business may face. This includes risks related to operations, financials, legal, regulatory, and reputational issues. By conducting a thorough risk assessment, businesses can identify potential threats and vulnerabilities and take proactive measures to mitigate or prevent them.

The first step in conducting an enterprise-wide risk assessment is to identify all areas of the business that are at risk. This includes both internal and external risks, such as supply chain disruptions, data breaches, and economic downturns. Once all areas of risk have been identified, the next step is to assess the likelihood and potential impact of each risk. This will help businesses prioritise which risks need to be addressed first.

Once the risks have been identified and prioritised, businesses can develop a risk management plan. This plan should include specific actions to mitigate or prevent each risk, as well as procedures to respond to and recover from a risk event. The plan should also include monitoring and reporting mechanisms to ensure that the plan is being implemented effectively.

In addition to the risk management plan, businesses should also consider implementing a risk management programme. This programme should include regular training for employees on risk management and incident response, as well as regular reviews of the risk management plan to ensure that it remains relevant and effective.

In conclusion, an enterprise-wide risk assessment is a critical tool for businesses to identify and manage potential threats and vulnerabilities. By conducting a thorough risk assessment, prioritising risks, and implementing a risk management plan, businesses can take proactive measures to mitigate or prevent risks and ensure their long-term success.

StepDescriptionAction
1Identify RisksIdentify all areas of the business that are at risk, including internal and external risks.
2Assess Likelihood and ImpactAssess the likelihood and potential impact of each identified risk.
3Prioritise RisksPrioritise identified risks based on likelihood and impact.
4Develop Risk Management PlanDevelop a risk management plan that includes specific actions to mitigate or prevent each risk, as well as procedures to respond to and recover from a risk event.
5Implement and Monitor Risk Management Programme Implement a risk management programme that includes regular training for employees on risk management and incident response, and regular reviews of the risk management plan to ensure that it remains relevant and effective.
5-step enterprise-wide risk assessment template

Note: The above table is just an example of a risk assessment template, it may not be sufficient to cover all risks and it’s important to consult professional and include all stakeholders involved.

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Enterprise risk management training courses in our virtual classroom. Corporate risk management training matched to your business needs. Find the best enterprise risk management training courses for you. Whether you prefer your enterprise risk management training remotely online or in the classroom start sharpening the saw to tackle enterprise risks better. Come direct to us or use one of our enterprise risk management training provider partners. Ask us to develop an enterprise risk management training course for your business or enterprise. Manage enterprise threats and opportunities better. Develop your risk knowledge and business intelligence.

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Enterprise Wide Risk Management Consulting

Enterprise wide risk management consulting services can boost your business performance. Enterprise risk management consulting services can support your business ambitions. What does your enterprise need to do or stop doing to be more successful? Enterprise wide risk management consulting and training services will provide you with the answer.

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Enterprise Risk Management ERM skills and Risk Knowledge Development

Gain a better more accurate understanding of the enterprise risks facing your organisation. Develop bespoke enterprise wide risk assessment process for your enterprise. Embed the right enterprise risk management tools and techniques to fit your enterprise risk management culture. Conduct your own enterprise wide risk assessments to manage enterprise risks better.

Solve complex enterprise challenges with more effective risk management strategy and risk management system. Improve your risk management leadership skills and train the rest of your employees to understand the benefits of enterprise wide risk management approach.

Apply a holistic enterprise wide risk management ERM approach across the entire organisation to enable a better understanding and management of key enterprise risks

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Develop a more integrated and coordinated enterprise risk management process that places greater emphasis on the whole instead of the parts of the enterprise. Your revised enterprise risk management framework should be built with new enterprise risk management policies processes tools techniques and reporting for improved governance risk and compliance GRC.

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Effective governance risk management and compliance is critical to build a resilient successful enterprise. It is fundamental for strategic operational and project management.

An Enterprise Risk Management ERM holistic approach is important because its successful embedding in your enterprise will give you more confidence it can survive and prosper regardless of the environment it has to work in. Manage threats better and seize new opportunities you may otherwise have missed or turned down.

Enterprise wide risk management methodology principles and practices will help your enterprise achieve its aims and objectives. It will focus your available resources to enable optimal enterprise performance.

BusinessRiskTV enterprise risk management consultants work in partnership with your senior managers and executives to ensure governance risk and compliance GRC is appropriately considered in the business strategy setting operational management and project management. We help you reach the right balance of risk taking and success. Respond to risk better and exploit opportunities quicker with more confidence.

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Is There a Demand for Risk Management Consultants?

In today’s increasingly complex and uncertain world, businesses of all sizes are under pressure to manage risk effectively. This has led to a growing demand for risk management consultants, who can help organisations identify, assess, and mitigate risks.

What Do Risk Management Consultants Do?

Risk management consultants typically have a background in business, finance, or statistics. They use their expertise to help organisations develop and implement risk management frameworks. This may involve identifying and assessing risks, developing risk mitigation strategies, and managing risk throughout the organisation.

What Are the Benefits of Hiring a Risk Management Consultant?

There are a number of benefits to hiring a risk management consultant. These include:

  • Expertise: Risk management consultants have the expertise and experience to help organisations identify, assess, and mitigate risks.
  • Objectivity: Risk management consultants can provide an objective view of an organisation’s risk profile. This can be helpful in identifying risks that may not be apparent to internal stakeholders.
  • Best practices: Risk management consultants can share best practices from other organisations. This can help organisations improve their risk management practices.
  • Improved compliance: Risk management consultants can help organisations improve their compliance with regulations.

Is There a Demand for Risk Management Consultants?

The demand for risk management consultants is growing. This is due to a number of factors, including:

  • Increased complexity of business operations: Businesses are becoming more complex, which means that there are more risks to manage.
  • Increased regulatory requirements: Governments are imposing stricter regulations on businesses, which means that they need to improve their risk management practices.
  • Increased awareness of risk: Businesses are becoming more aware of the importance of managing risk. They are realising that risk can have a significant impact on their bottom line.

What Are the Skills Needed to Be a Risk Management Consultant?

The skills needed to be a risk management consultant vary depending on the specific role. However, some of the most important skills include:

  • Business acumen: Risk management consultants need to have a strong understanding of business operations. This will help them identify and assess risks that may impact the organisation.
  • Quantitative skills: Risk management consultants need to be able to analyse data and use statistical methods to assess risk.
  • Communication skills: Risk management consultants need to be able to communicate effectively with both technical and non-technical audiences.
  • Problem-solving skills: Risk management consultants need to be able to identify and solve problems.

How to Become a Risk Management Consultant

There are a number of ways to become a risk management consultant. Some people choose to earn a degree in risk management or a related field. Others gain experience in risk management by working in a business or government organisation. There are also a number of certification programs available for risk management professionals.

The Future of Risk Management Consulting

The future of risk management consulting is bright. The demand for risk management consultants is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. This is due to the increasing complexity of business operations, the increasing regulatory requirements, and the increasing awareness of risk.

If you are interested in a career in risk management consulting, there are a number of things you can do to prepare. First, you should gain experience in risk management by working in a business or government organisation. Second, you should earn a degree in risk management or a related field. Third, you should become certified as a risk management professional.

The field of risk management consulting is a dynamic and rewarding field. If you are interested in helping organisations manage risk, then a career in risk management consulting may be the right choice for you.

In addition to the above, here are some other factors that are driving the demand for risk management consultants:

  • The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters.
  • The growing threat of cyberattacks.
  • The increasing complexity of financial markets.
  • The globalisation of business.

As these and other risks continue to grow, the demand for risk management consultants is likely to remain strong.

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Do you know your business risk profile

Help to complete your own business risk assessment to be better prepared for your future

Understanding your business risk profile is an important step to making better risk based business management decisions. Identify the threats and opportunities your business faces now or will do in future. Assess the risks of this uncertainty to your business objectives. Your resulting business risk profile will help you make better business decisions. Focus your limited business resources on the risks which will bring you greatest reward of business resilience and business growth.

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Profiling your business risks will help you to stop wasting time and money. You can also use your business risk profile to monitor the impact or lack of impact on your business performance.

Prepare for and manage key business risks your business faces today and tomorrow. Learn from past business risk management events your business experienced or other businesses experienced so you do not have to.

Make sure all your employees know your critical business risks. Create a more effective business risk management framework to allocate responsibilities and accountability for managing business risks.

Your business risk profile should not be a one off exercise. It should not just sit in a file with a to do list ticked. Use your own business risk to mitigate potential threats and maximise business development opportunities. Holistically manage the whole business with the best use of available existing business resources.

Enterprise risk management methodology should be applied to strategic operational and project uncertainties. Inform your decision making process with the whole picture not just part.

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An holistic approach in business management will protect your business better and grow faster for longer more resiliently with less uncertainty

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The holistic business approach we advocate uses the principles and practices of enterprise risk management methodology in ISO 31000. Create an holistic business plan to build a more resilient business regardless of the economic environment.

  • Seize and develop new business opportunities
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Reduce the impact of uncertainty on your business objectives. Pick better business objectives that are really achievable more easily. Build on the value of your business. Improve business results with faster business growth and development.

Our holistic business approach reviews the whole business. When you know where you really stand then you can set a course for where you want to get to. Tap into the risk knowledge of your peers locally and globally to overcome business hurdles quicker easier and cheaper. Change your business decision making process.

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Enterprise risk management analysis with BusinessRiskTV

How to identify and analyse enterprise opportunities and threats

Improve your identification and analysis of business opportunities and threats. Subject your business processes to better risk identification and analysis to boost your business performance.

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Use your business strengths to mitigate the threats your business faces. Reduce your weaknesses to control the threats to your business objectives. Seize new business opportunities to build your business resilience.

How to protect your business
Find out how to protect your business better and build business resilience with BusinessRiskTV

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Use enterprise risk identification and analysis to help you grow your business with less uncertainty.

  • Enhance what you are doing well for greater returns on your investment of time and money.
  • Identify new opportunities for your business that you are currently missing or failing to capitalise upon.
  • Control the risks holding your business development back.

Recognise that you do have opportunities to improve your business and what you need to do to make them work well regardless of the business or economic environment.

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Create a business risk management plan after identifying key threats and opportunities for your business: PESTLE example

A business risk management plan for a business leader in the UK could include the following:

  1. Political risks:
  • Monitor changes in government policies and regulations that may affect the business
  • Assess the potential impact of political instability on the company’s operations and supply chain
  • Develop contingency plans for disruptions caused by political events
  1. Economic risks:
  • Monitor economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
  • Assess the potential impact of economic downturns on the company’s revenue and profitability
  • Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of economic fluctuations on the business
  1. Social risks:
  • Monitor changes in consumer behavior and preferences
  • Assess the potential impact of social trends on the company’s products and services
  • Develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
  1. Technological risks:
  • Monitor advances in technology that may disrupt the company’s business model
  • Assess the potential impact of technological innovations on the company’s competitiveness
  • Invest in research and development to stay ahead of technological changes
  1. Legal risks:
  • Monitor changes in laws and regulations that may affect the business
  • Assess the potential impact of legal changes on the company’s operations and compliance costs
  • Develop strategies to mitigate legal risks, such as insurance or implementing compliance programs
  1. Environmental risks:
  • Monitor changes in environmental regulations and standards
  • Assess the potential impact of environmental factors on the company’s operations and supply chain
  • Develop strategies to mitigate environmental risks, such as implementing sustainable practices or investing in renewable energy.

Note: PESTLE Analysis is a framework for assessing the external factors that may affect a business. It is a useful tool for identifying potential risks and opportunities for a business.

PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN

Risk Type Key Considerations Potential Impact Mitigation Strategies
Political risks Changes in government policies and regulations Disruptions to operations and supply chain Monitor political developments, develop contingency plans
Economic risks Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates Reduced revenue and profitability Monitor economic indicators, develop strategies to mitigate effects of economic fluctuations
Social risks Changes in consumer behavior and preferences Reduced demand for products and services Monitor social trends, develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risks Advances in technology that may disrupt business model Loss of competitiveness Monitor technological developments, invest in R&D to stay ahead of changes
Legal risks Changes in laws and regulations Increased compliance costs and legal liabilities Monitor legal developments, implement compliance programs and insurance
Environmental risks Changes in environmental regulations and standards Negative impact on operations and supply chain Monitor environmental developments, implement sustainable practices and invest in renewable energy.
PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN

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