Exploring preparation for a global recession with a businessrisktv.com
What happens to commodity prices in a recession
The coming global recession will slash demand for oil copper and the like. Prices for most commodities will fall. If the world falls into depression commodity prices will fall off a cliff including oil.
Some prices can rise temporarily as people seek a safe haven. People may flee to gold or a few commodities that they think will safe harbour their money during a recession. However a depression, which is more and more likely, causes most commodity prices to collapse.
June’s weaker demand for commodities signals that an economic global recession is coming closer.
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Global recession is necessary to stop runaway global inflation. The hard landing is the only option now available due to the lacklustre response to control inflation by Central banks and global national government.
Agricultural demand and energy demand is likely to keep rising during the autumn and winter and will sustain high commodity prices. This is likely to be aggravated by poor geopolitical decision-making by incompetent national leaders and global bodies like WHO, UN and WEF puppet masters and pied pippers particularly as it relates to food, water and energy. It is likely that another health crisis will emerge in the autumn winter and spring and this is likely to be managed in a restrictive way due to the propensity of these international bodies to take more and more health and economic risk management control. In addition, as demand falls due to rising inflation it can be combined with increased supply chain disruption imposed by recommended risk management action by international bodies that national governments adopt. Worse WHO wants overseeing overriding control of the next wave of the pandemic or next health pandemic.
Demand is likely to stay the same or slightly lower, but our leaders can change the supply up or down with their decisions. Reducing supply will push up prices.
Global stagflation is a certainty. When not if.
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Global commodity prices
Wheat and oil future prices are down in June based on the most actively traded futures. Weaker commodity prices in June indicate we are transitioning to a global recession. Although commodity prices will fall, inflation will increase and stay high whilst growth turns to recession. For example there will be less demand for oil, oil prices will fall, but prices of goods and services will remain high.
Surviving global recession: how do you prepare for a recession
Businesses that can offer business discounts and consumer discounts are more likely to survive as more people become price conscious.
Businesses that supply essentials or luxury items at a discount offer more in the marketplace compared to those businesses who have let their own costs of being in business balloon and cannot offer deals and discounts.
Discount grocery and retail stores tend to have more footfall during a recession. Many supermarkets take advantage of their customers during the good times and suffer a loss of business and profitability when recessionary precious hit the consumers household budget.
People still die during recession! After the management of global risks over the last two years more people will die. businesses which cater for death are likely to perform strongly throughout a recession.
People turn to drink and drugs during a recession! Businesses providing alcohol and drugs will perform strongly during the coming recession.
You still have to pay your taxes! Accountants and tax advisors are likely to still perform well during the recession.
Everyone can afford a bit of lippy! Cosmetic businesses can perform well during a recession.
As for the rest of businesses, they must fully understand what’s important and what is not for their particular business model. Offering more value for money will become more important.
Global recession 2023
Risk Review 28 June 2022: Transitioning to a global recession in 2023
Create a more successful business with BusinessRiskTV tips advice and support
Has your business been just surviving for too long and could it be more successful?
There are many ways to grow a business. There is no right way fits all businesses. Even if the business is almost the exact same as another business in terms of who they target to sell to and have the same resources, the success and failure can come down to who leads the business and how they manage limited resources.
The problem can be exacerbated by outside risk events like wars, pandemics and interest rate movements, but controlling both internal and external risk drivers is what a leader is paid to do.
How can you save and grow your business
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Do not let fear of unknown and uncertainty deprive you of a more successful business. We can help you make better business decisions with increased risk knowledge, improved risk management skills and better business intelligence.
Business survival in the current economic climate is an important first base objective. However, attack can be the best form of defence! Growing your way out of the imminent global recession may help you not only survive but prosper.
Why has your business not grown as fast as you would have liked?
Do you know?
Is that the right perception of your failure to grow?
Do you know what you could do differently?
Why haven’t you made the changes needed to be more successful in business?
Sure there have been challenges over last few years. Yes you had to react fast to survive. However, getting ahead of the impeding disaster to hit many businesses will help your business survive and grow.
Its business leaders seek to increase profit not turnover;
Its business leaders engage everyone in the process of being better, regardless of how good they currently are at the way they do things.
Become more tuned to the needs of your business stakeholders. Adapt your offering to the marketplace to dit those needs better. Deliver what they need and want more cost-effectively with less uncertainty. Make money more easily with more certainty with a better business risk management plan. Maximise the value of your business with a better offering to the marketplace.
Mastering the Right Business Skills: Overcoming Problems and Embracing Opportunities
In the dynamic and competitive landscape of the business world, possessing the right set of skills is crucial for running a successful enterprise. Whether you are an entrepreneur starting a new venture or an established business owner, honing your business skills is essential for tackling challenges, solving problems, and capitalising on opportunities. This article explores the key skills needed to run a successful business, highlights the importance of these skills, discusses problem-solving strategies, and provides practical tips for improving your business acumen.
I. The Essential Skills for Running a Successful Business
Running a successful business requires a combination of hard and soft skills. Below are some key skills that entrepreneurs and business owners should develop:
Leadership and Communication Skills: Effective leadership is vital for guiding teams, making strategic decisions, and inspiring employees. Strong communication skills foster collaboration, negotiation, and relationship building.
Financial Management Skills: Understanding financial concepts, managing cash flow, and analysing financial statements are crucial for making informed business decisions and ensuring long-term sustainability.
Marketing and Sales Skills: The ability to identify target markets, develop effective marketing strategies, and close sales is essential for attracting and retaining customers.
Problem-Solving and Decision-Making Skills: Being able to analyse complex situations, think critically, and make sound decisions in a timely manner is vital for overcoming challenges and seizing opportunities.
Adaptability and Resilience: The business landscape is constantly evolving, and being adaptable and resilient allows entrepreneurs to navigate uncertainties and bounce back from setbacks.
Time and Project Management Skills: Effective time management and project planning ensure that tasks are completed efficiently, deadlines are met, and resources are optimised.
Networking and Relationship Building Skills: Building a strong network of contacts, maintaining customer relationships, and nurturing partnerships are valuable for business growth and opportunities.
II. The Importance of Business Skills
Business skills are fundamental for several reasons:
Successful Decision Making: With the right business skills, entrepreneurs can analyse data, evaluate risks, and make informed decisions, leading to better outcomes and growth.
Efficient Problem Solving: Business skills equip individuals with problem-solving techniques to identify and address issues, enabling smoother operations and improved customer satisfaction.
Adaptation to Changing Markets: Business skills enable entrepreneurs to stay abreast of market trends, identify emerging opportunities, and adapt their strategies to remain competitive.
Effective Communication: Strong communication skills enhance collaboration, team dynamics, and customer relations, fostering a positive brand image and facilitating business success.
Building a Strong Team: Business skills contribute to effective team management, recruitment, and employee development, leading to a motivated workforce and higher productivity.
Financial Management: Proficient financial skills help entrepreneurs manage budgets, cash flow, and profitability, enabling sustainable growth and mitigating financial risks.
III. Solving Business-Related Problems
To solve business problems effectively, consider the following strategies:
Define the Problem: Clearly identify the problem by analysing the root causes and understanding its impact on various aspects of the business.
Gather Information: Collect relevant data, conduct research, and consult experts to gain insights and develop a comprehensive understanding of the problem.
Analyse and Prioritise: Break down the problem into manageable components, evaluate their significance, and prioritise areas for action.
Generate Solutions: Encourage brainstorming sessions to generate a range of potential solutions. Evaluate each option based on feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and alignment with business objectives.
Implement and Monitor: Select the most viable solution and create an action plan. Monitor progress, gather feedback, and make necessary adjustments to ensure effective implementation.
IV. Improving Business Skills
Enhancing your business skills is an ongoing process. Here are some practical ways to improve your skills:
Continuous Learning: Stay updated with industry trends, technologies, and best practices through books, online courses, podcasts, and industry events.
Seek Mentorship: Engage with experienced professionals who can provide guidance, share insights, and offer support based on their own business experiences.
Networking Opportunities: Attend business conferences, join professional associations, and actively participate in networking events to expand your connections and learn from others.
Embrace Feedback: Seek feedback from customers, employees, and mentors to identify areas for improvement and make necessary adjustments.
Develop Emotional Intelligence: Enhance your ability to understand and manage emotions, build relationships, and communicate effectively.
Delegate and Empower: Learn to delegate tasks and empower your team members, allowing you to focus on higher-level strategic activities.
Engage in Critical Thinking: Develop critical thinking skills by analysing complex problems, evaluating multiple perspectives, and making informed decisions.
Mastering the right business skills is a prerequisite for running a successful enterprise. These skills empower entrepreneurs and business owners to overcome challenges, solve problems, and seize opportunities in the dynamic and competitive business landscape. By developing and honing the essential skills discussed in this article, individuals can enhance their decision-making abilities, adapt to changing markets, and build thriving businesses. Continuous learning, seeking mentorship, embracing feedback, and practicing emotional intelligence are practical ways to improve business skills. Remember, the journey to becoming a successful entrepreneur is a continuous one, and investing in your business skills is an investment in your future success.
Exploring consequences of poor risk management with BusinessRiskTV
There are often good reasons for poor risk management. That does make poor risk management acceptable. Causes of poor risk management are varied. They include poor risk management culture, an inadequate enterprise risk management framework with accepted risk owners and risk supervisors as well as lack of effective enterprise-wide risk assessment process.
We believe there are business experts out there who want to improve the quality of enterprise risk management. Our introductory risk management toolbox talks are designed to open up your mind to more innovative ways to doing more business with less uncertainty. If you like our approach, you will have the opportunity to become a member of BusinessRiskTV for 12 months to protect your business better and grow your business faster.
Failure To Manage Enterprise Risks Vs Failure Of Risk Managers Risk Management Toolbox Talk
In this context we do not just mean people with Risk Manager in their job title. We mean people who should take ownership of specific key enterprise risks as well as the people charged with monitoring or supervising risks including making sure risk management is embedded within the day to day activities of the business or enterprise.
Do you know if your business is making good or bad enterprise risk management decisions? Pandemic risk management is a good example of good and bad risk management – under pressure we make good and bad decisions. Every day pre-pandemic managers of business risk are under pressure. Post-pandemic managers of risk will remain under pressure.
This enterprise risk management toolbox talk focuses on understanding business risks better and how to make better business decisions to build business resilience and boost business performance. Because your time is so valuable we will complete our introduction to better enterprise risk management in no more than 30 minutes.
Title: Failure To Manage Enterprise Risks Vs Failure Of Risk Managers Date: Wednesday, 6th January, 2021 Time: 5:00-5:30 p.m. GMT Speaker: Keith Lewis, BusinessRiskTV
In this enterprise risk management toolbox talk we will cover:
Taking personal ownership of enterprise risks.
Understanding the true level of risk facing your business.
Identifying risk management action to protect your business better and grow it faster.
Save the date for introduction to how to improve your management of business risks to boost your business resilience and performance.
Participants at introductory online risk management toolbox talk can also put themselves forward as business risk experts at future more advanced online workshop events to share your expert business knowledge and promote their business interests. Are you a risk management expert in your country, industry or specific risk topic? Get in touch with us if this is you.
Want to promote market and advertise your business?
BusinessRiskTV Pro Risk Manager members are untitled to 50 percent discount off normal advertising and marketing services. CLICK HERE or email [email protected] entering code #Marketing.
Understand your enterprise risk profile to make better decisions. Develop new risk management strategies to help you navigate uncertainty easier and cheaper. Understand the relationship between business risk management and insurance. Create an enterprise risk management road map to boost business resilience and improve performance. Improve your enterprise risk analysis. Sign up with business risk assessment coach to find our where you are now and work towards where you want to get to.
Help to complete your own business risk assessment to be better prepared for your future
Understanding your business risk profile is an important step to making better risk based business management decisions. Identify the threats and opportunities your business faces now or will do in future. Assess the risks of this uncertainty to your business objectives. Your resulting business risk profile will help you make better business decisions. Focus your limited business resources on the risks which will bring you greatest reward of business resilience and business growth.
Enterprise Wide Risk Assessment For Faster Business Growth With Best Use Of Business Assets
Profiling your business risks will help you to stop wasting time and money. You can also use your business risk profile to monitor the impact or lack of impact on your business performance.
Prepare for and manage key business risks your business faces today and tomorrow. Learn from past business risk management events your business experienced or other businesses experienced so you do not have to.
Make sure all your employees know your critical business risks. Create a more effective business risk management framework to allocate responsibilities and accountability for managing business risks.
Your business risk profile should not be a one off exercise. It should not just sit in a file with a to do list ticked. Use your own business risk to mitigate potential threats and maximise business development opportunities. Holistically manage the whole business with the best use of available existing business resources.
Enterprise risk management methodology should be applied to strategic operational and project uncertainties. Inform your decision making process with the whole picture not just part.
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Enterprise risk management analysis with BusinessRiskTV
How to identify and analyse enterprise opportunities and threats
Improve your identification and analysis of business opportunities and threats. Subject your business processes to better risk identification and analysis to boost your business performance.
Unlock the secrets of successful business risk management: Sign up for our ongoing risk management workshops today!
Use your business strengths to mitigate the threats your business faces. Reduce your weaknesses to control the threats to your business objectives. Seize new business opportunities to build your business resilience.
Find out how to protect your business better and build business resilience with BusinessRiskTV
Subscribe for free to BusinessRiskTV to follow updates and highlights of articles and workshops on risk identification and analysis
Use enterprise risk identification and analysis to help you grow your business with less uncertainty.
Enhance what you are doing well for greater returns on your investment of time and money.
Identify new opportunities for your business that you are currently missing or failing to capitalise upon.
Control the risks holding your business development back.
Recognise that you do have opportunities to improve your business and what you need to do to make them work well regardless of the business or economic environment.
Subscribe for free to BusinessRiskTV to follow updates and highlights of articles and workshops on risk identification and analysis
Create a business risk management plan after identifying key threats and opportunities for your business: PESTLE example
A business risk management plan for a business leader in the UK could include the following:
Political risks:
Monitor changes in government policies and regulations that may affect the business
Assess the potential impact of political instability on the company’s operations and supply chain
Develop contingency plans for disruptions caused by political events
Economic risks:
Monitor economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
Assess the potential impact of economic downturns on the company’s revenue and profitability
Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of economic fluctuations on the business
Social risks:
Monitor changes in consumer behavior and preferences
Assess the potential impact of social trends on the company’s products and services
Develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risks:
Monitor advances in technology that may disrupt the company’s business model
Assess the potential impact of technological innovations on the company’s competitiveness
Invest in research and development to stay ahead of technological changes
Legal risks:
Monitor changes in laws and regulations that may affect the business
Assess the potential impact of legal changes on the company’s operations and compliance costs
Develop strategies to mitigate legal risks, such as insurance or implementing compliance programs
Environmental risks:
Monitor changes in environmental regulations and standards
Assess the potential impact of environmental factors on the company’s operations and supply chain
Develop strategies to mitigate environmental risks, such as implementing sustainable practices or investing in renewable energy.
Note: PESTLE Analysis is a framework for assessing the external factors that may affect a business. It is a useful tool for identifying potential risks and opportunities for a business.
PESTLE BUSINESS RISK PLAN
Risk Type
Key Considerations
Potential Impact
Mitigation Strategies
Political risks
Changes in government policies and regulations
Disruptions to operations and supply chain
Monitor political developments, develop contingency plans
Economic risks
Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates
Reduced revenue and profitability
Monitor economic indicators, develop strategies to mitigate effects of economic fluctuations
Social risks
Changes in consumer behavior and preferences
Reduced demand for products and services
Monitor social trends, develop strategies to adapt to changes in consumer demand
Technological risks
Advances in technology that may disrupt business model
Loss of competitiveness
Monitor technological developments, invest in R&D to stay ahead of changes
Legal risks
Changes in laws and regulations
Increased compliance costs and legal liabilities
Monitor legal developments, implement compliance programs and insurance
Environmental risks
Changes in environmental regulations and standards
Negative impact on operations and supply chain
Monitor environmental developments, implement sustainable practices and invest in renewable energy.
