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Deutsche Bank currency guru says it’s ‘time to sell the dollar’ as greenback sees longest losing streak since 2021
The dollar has been on a losing streak in recent weeks, and a top currency strategist at Deutsche Bank is betting that the trend will continue.
George Saravelos, global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients on Thursday that he’s once again betting that the dollar will weaken against the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and other major currencies.
“We believe that the dollar’s recent weakness is more than just a temporary correction,” Saravelos said. “We see a number of factors that are likely to keep the dollar under pressure in the coming months.”
One of the factors that Saravelos is pointing to is the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise rates several times this year in an effort to combat inflation. However, Saravelos believes that the Fed’s rate hikes will be less effective than they have been in the past because the global economy is now in a different phase.
“The global economy is no longer in a synchronised growth upswing,” Saravelos said. “This means that the Fed’s rate hikes are likely to have a more muted impact on economic activity and inflation than they would have in the past.”
Another factor that Saravelos is pointing to is the strength of the euro. The euro has been rising in recent weeks, and Saravelos believes that this trend is likely to continue.
“The euro is benefiting from a number of factors, including the strong performance of the European economy,” Saravelos said. “We believe that the euro is likely to continue to outperform the dollar in the coming months.”
Saravelos’s call is a reversal of his previous stance. In January, he said that the dollar was “oversold” and that he expected it to rebound. However, he has since changed his view, and he now believes that the dollar is likely to continue to weaken.
Saravelos’s call is in line with the views of other currency analysts. A recent survey by Bloomberg found that 60% of currency analysts believe that the dollar will weaken in the coming months.
If Saravelos is right, it could have a significant impact on the global economy. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and its value has a major impact on the prices of commodities, assets, and goods. If the dollar weakens, it could lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth.
Of course, it’s impossible to say for sure what will happen to the dollar in the future. However, Saravelos’s call is a warning that the greenback’s days of dominance may be coming to an end.
In addition to the factors mentioned by Saravelos, there are a few other reasons why the dollar could continue to weaken.
- The US trade deficit is widening. This means that the US is importing more goods and services than it is exporting. This puts downward pressure on the dollar.
- The US economy is growing more slowly than other major economies. This means that investors are less likely to hold dollars as a safe haven.
- The US political landscape is becoming more polarised. This could lead to uncertainty and volatility in the markets, which could also weigh on the dollar.
Of course, there are also some factors that could support the dollar. For example, if the Fed raises interest rates more aggressively than expected, it could boost the dollar’s value. However, overall, the trend seems to be pointing towards a weaker dollar.
What does this mean for investors?
If you are an investor who is holding dollars, you may want to consider hedging your bets by investing in other currencies. You may also want to consider investing in assets that are less sensitive to changes in the dollar’s value.
If you are a business that exports goods or services, you may benefit from a weaker dollar. This is because a weaker dollar will make your goods or services cheaper for foreign buyers.
Overall, the outlook for the dollar is uncertain. However, there are a number of factors that could lead to a weaker dollar in the coming months. Investors and businesses should be aware of these factors and should adjust their strategies accordingly
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