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A Sobering Reality Check for UK House Prices: Flat at Best, or a Real-Terms Fall?
The headline numbers on UK house prices for the second half of 2025 and 2026 paint a deceptive picture. While some forecasts from the OBR suggest a modest average growth of around 2.5% from 2026, the real story is much less optimistic. With the British Chambers of Commerce projecting inflation to be around 2.1% in 2026, and the OBR forecasting a rise to 3.2% in 2025, any nominal house price growth is likely to be completely wiped out.
This means that in real terms, the value of a house will, at best, remain stagnant, or more likely, even decline. For homeowners and prospective buyers, this is a critical distinction. Any increase in the price of your home will likely not keep pace with the rising cost of living. This is not the “boom” that some are touting, but rather a period of stagnation and a silent erosion of wealth. A market correction is well underway, one where the official figures may not show a housing price crash in UK, but the reality for household finances will feel very much like one.
Risk vs Inflation UK 2025
Guaranteed to lose most of your money in the UK during the second half of 2025 means leaving cash in low-interest savings as inflation quietly eats away your real purchasing power. With interest rates often lower than inflation, your money buys less each year — a slow but certain loss.
On the other hand, investing in stocks, shares, cryptocurrency, or property comes with risk of losing all your money, especially in volatile or poorly chosen assets. However, these options also offer potential for real growth that can outpace inflation.
So which is the bigger risk in 2025? Inaction. Doing nothing and letting inflation erode your savings is guaranteed loss. Investing carries risk — but with research and diversification, it may protect or even grow your wealth over time.
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