Although unpredictable lets try and predict the future! What is exciting is that clearly there are many threats particularly from the environment and trade wars. There are also massive opportunities for business leaders who are in control of their own business risks.
What are the biggest threats and opportunities to the world in the new decade?BusinessRiskTV
Some of the biggest global risks business leaders have little control over. Warfare and mass destruction global inequality between countries and unequal economic development creating mass economic migration global trade wars global pandemics political shift towards popularity driven left or right wing positions and systemic collapse of the financial markets. Contingency planning is the best that business leaders can do to manage most of such global catastrophic risks.
However there are risks business leaders do have the potential to have control over but do not always control such global occurring risks. Global risks falling into this category include deteriorating natural environment and global warming as well as cyber attacks.
Many of the risk management solutions for one global risk can manage the threat and opportunity from another risk without extra investment of time or money.BusinessRiskTV
What are the biggest risks to the global economy in 2020?
BusinessRiskTV is scanning for threats and opportunities to the global economy in the new decade. If you look for it you can still see an abundance of wealth and opportunity globally and locally.
Global Recession 2020?
Putting warfare and mass destruction risk to one side the most likely cause of a global recession in 2020 is the continuing or deterioration of global trad wars.
USA China is the linchpin of the global recession risk in 2020 and 2021. By the same token this trade war offers the greatest salvation for global economic boom. It is our feeling that the upside risk is more likely. Neither party is concerned with the world outside their own backyard but will pragmatically compromise with an agreed trade deal or two by the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021. When they do the rest of the world will boom along with them.
Of lessor importance is an agreement between the UK and the European Union. If a deal can be signed within 2020 and this is in addition to a USA China trade deal then it will be up to governments around the world to play their part. If countries invest in their own infrastructure particularly communication infrastructure then the global economy will face the 4th industrial revolution on steroids!
The climate threat has come off age! The solutions are already known. However the will is less obvious. The financial services industry particularly banks will probably be the biggest influencers in driving environmental protection. Many banks and investors are refusing to finance coal businesses and are threatening divestment and lack of funding for other fossil fuel businesses. Even the governor of the Bank of England has told pension fund managers to sort out investment in fossil fuel based businesses.
The flip side of this is the opportunity to make money from environmental protection. Existing and developing environmental protection technologies are a real business opportunity. Even if your business does not sell environmental protection products or services your brand needs protecting via the adoption of good environmental protection policy.
The world is drowning in debt and fake money. Government corporate and personal debt. How future generations will cope with the weight of debt when many in the developed world are also going to suffer the effects of demographic time bomb detonation. Quite frightening! However one way to cope with future and present global risks is for governments to invest money in infrastructure particularly 5G communication and utilities. Many of the innovation and inventions are going to rely on power and the internet.Necessity is the mother of invention but with power and faster communication we will be trapped in the past with only a vision of how much better our future could be globally.
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